Copacabana Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s break down what’s coming for Copacabana over the next couple weeks. There’s a slow start, but a little window of clean waves early, and a bigger pulse way out in the second week that’s got some promise.

The first surf worth jumping in for hits early Friday morning, July 3rd. Glassy conditions with a light NE breeze at 3 mph, and the water’s at 70.7° – that’s a fair bit warmer than normal for this time of year. Swell’s coming from the NW at 3.6 ft with an 11-second period, a nice groundswell with decent energy. The combined energy reads 324 (moderate). Expect clean, glassy waves – not huge, but for a quiet session it’s the best on offer early. Breaks like Copacabana can draw a crowd sometimes, and with the water this warm and clean waves, it might get a few locals out.

The rest of Friday afternoon and into Saturday morning, July 4th, things drop off. Saturday morning still has some clean lines with a cross-offshore ENE breeze at 6 mph and a smaller 2.6 ft NW swell (energy 136), but it’s ordinary – surfable if you’re keen, but nothing special. By Saturday afternoon the wind picks up to 16 mph from the NE, and the quality tanks. Sunday through to the following Friday (July 5th to 10th) is mostly poor – small, choppy, or cross-onshore winds. There’s a brief moment Monday afternoon, July 6th, with glassy conditions and a tiny 2.6 ft NE swell (energy 58), but it’s weak and short-period – more of a paddle than a surf.

The second week starts with some hope. Monday, July 13th morning is glassy again with a light NW wind, but the swell is only 2.0 ft from the NW (energy 112) – still ordinary. Things get interesting later that afternoon when a longer-period NW swell arrives at 2.6 ft with a 13-second period, and the combined energy jumps to 325 (moderate). But it’s cross-onshore, so a bit messy – marginal at best. Tuesday the 14th has a 3.6 ft NW swell with 11 seconds and energy up to 370, but it’s cross-onshore and poor quality.

Now, the standout – and this is the one to circle on the calendar – is Saturday morning, July 18th. That’s over two weeks away so treat it as promising but less certain. We’re looking at a 5.9 ft NW swell with a 9-second period (moderate energy at 615). Wind is glassy from the NW at 3 mph. That’s going to be proper clean with some decent size. For intermediate surfers, that’s a fun size; for beginners, it’s on the bigger side (over 5 ft). Saturday afternoon the swell builds to 6.9 ft (energy 873), but it gets a cross-onshore kick and the tide might mess with it – still, the morning window is the clear highlight of the entire outlook.

So, to sum it up: Friday July 3rd morning for a clean, smaller session, and keep an eye on Saturday July 18th morning for the best size and glass. The rest of the run has gaps of several days where I wouldn’t bother. The water’s running much warmer than normal for now. Stay stoked.

Read more