Copacabana Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s coming our way over the next couple of weeks at Copacabana. I’ll be straight with you – it’s a tough stretch for the most part, with a lot of onshore wind and messy conditions. There’s a potential standout way out there, but you’ll need to be patient and pick your moments.

The biggest issue for the first week is the wind. We’re looking at a long run of cross-shore and cross-onshore breezes, mostly from the NE and W, which is going to keep the surface lumpy and chopped up. The water temp is sitting at 73°F, which is a solid 5°F warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s a notable anomaly, so the water will feel properly warm.

From Monday the 20th right through to Sunday the 26th, it’s a tough slog. The swell is mostly small, between 2ft and 5ft, and coming from the NNE and NW. The period is short (6-7 seconds), so it’s weak, crumbly, and lacking any punch. The combined energy stays low, mostly in the double digits or low triple digits (like 50 to 233), so it’s weak. The wind is just no good – it’s either cross or cross-on, and often moderate to fresh. The morning of Thursday the 23rd has a brief window of light WNW offshore wind and a 2ft swell, but it’s still short-period and weak. Honestly, not much to get excited about here.

The real taste of something better arrives on the morning of Monday the 27th and into Tuesday the 28th. The swell direction swings to the NW, the period jumps to 9-10 seconds, and the energy starts building into the mid to high hundreds (274 to 498). The wind on the morning of Tuesday the 28th is a clean cross-offshore from the ENE at 9 mph, and the swell is 4ft from the NW. That’s the first decent window. The morning of Wednesday the 29th also has some potential with a light ENE breeze and clean conditions, but the wind later that day turns onshore again.

Now, the big one. The standout session of the whole outlook is the morning of Sunday, August 2nd. This is a proper, powerful swell: 10ft from the NNW with a 10-second period. The combined energy is a massive 1623, which is strong. But here’s the catch – that is a lot of water. At 10ft, this is expert territory only, and it’s too big for beginners. The wind is glassy, which is a major positive, but the sheer size means it’s going to be a heavy, challenging day at Copacabana. The swell direction is NNW, which is a bit off the optimum NW direction, but with that energy and glassy conditions, it’s the best on offer by a long shot. Keep in mind that for a beach break like this, a long-period swell (10 seconds) can sometimes make the waves a bit too straight, but the energy will be there. Crowds are sometimes an issue here, so be ready for a packed lineup if you’re going for it.

After that, the surf drops off fast. The morning of Monday, August 3rd has a glassy 3ft swell from the NW, but the energy is back down to 132, so it’s a small, gentle finish to the period.

So, to sum it up: the first week is mostly a write-off. The Tuesday morning of the 28th offers a decent clean session with 4ft swell. The absolute standout is the Sunday morning of August 2nd, with a huge 10ft glassy swell, but that’s for experienced surfers only.

Rusty.

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