Copacabana Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your board and let’s talk about the next couple of weeks. It’s not going to be a classic stretch, I’ll tell you that right now. We’ve got a lot of small, messy energy on the horizon, and you’re going to have to be patient to find anything worth paddling out for.

We start off quiet. The coming days are looking pretty flat and weak, with very little push. The water is sitting at 72°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s something at least. But the waves? Not much to get excited about.

There’s a brief window early Monday morning with a slight bump in period, but the swell is still tiny at 2ft. The wind is glassy though, so if you’re desperate for a slide on a longboard, it might be your only chance in the near term. It’s pretty ordinary, but it’s clean.

That’s about it for the first week. It’s a lot of days with onshore winds and small, weak swell. The energy is just dismal, with values mostly in the double digits or just barely tripping into the low hundreds. It’s a flat spell, plain and simple.

Looking ahead, the real news is the change that arrives on Sunday the 23rd. That’s more than a week out, so take it with a grain of salt, but the models are showing a proper pulse of NW groundswell. The size jumps to 7ft in the morning and builds to 8ft by the afternoon, with a period of 11 seconds. The energy readings spike hard, hitting 998 then 1592. That’s a serious jump in power from what we’ve been looking at.

This is the standout of the whole window, no question. Copacabana is an exposed spot, and this NW direction is right in its wheelhouse. The morning of the 23rd looks better with lighter cross-onshore winds, but by the afternoon the wind swings onshore and it’ll get a bit messier. Still, this is the only time with real size and push. At 8ft, it’s pushing into expert territory, so if you’re not comfortable in bigger, powerful surf, maybe give it a miss. The swell direction is right, the power is there, but the wind might not be perfect.

Before that, don’t hold your breath. The forecast confidence is much higher for the nothing happening in the first week. This long-range pulse is promising, but it’s a week and a half away, so things can change.

One thing to keep in mind with that bigger swell – it’s a longer period groundswell. That means it can tend to close out a bit at a beach break like this. It’s still the best option we’ve got, but just know that it might not be as clean as we’d like.

So, in short: stay patient. The first week and a half is a write-off. The weekend of the 23rd is your only real chance at something with some heart. Keep your fingers crossed it holds together.

Rusty.

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