Copacabana Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk about Copacabana.

Look, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it – this stretch of the next two weeks is pretty lean for us. The surf’s barely showing any energy for the first week and a half, and honestly, there’s nothing that’ll get you out of bed in a hurry. We’ve got a long dry spell from the 16th right through until the 27th, where the swell is tiny, messy, and mostly blown out.

The water is sitting at about 71°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – nothing crazy, but you’ll notice it’s a little more comfortable than usual.

Let’s run through it. Thursday 16th through Sunday 19th – we’re looking at ankle-to-knee-high slop, mostly from the NW or NNW, with periods under 6 seconds. That’s barely a ripple. The combined energy never cracks 52 (weak), and winds are cross-on or glassy at best, but the swell’s just too small to bother.

Monday 20th and Tuesday 21st see a tiny bump. The swell picks up a bit to 4ft–5ft from the N and NNE, and combined energy hits 220 (moderate) on Monday afternoon. But the wind is cross or cross-off, and the period’s short – 6 to 7 seconds – so it’s bumpy and weak. Not worth rushing.

Then we go quiet again. Wednesday 22nd through to Sunday 27th – mostly knee-high or less, light winds, combined energy mostly under 100. A couple of glassy moments on the 19th morning and 26th morning, but with swell only 1.0ft–1ft, it’s flat.

Now, Monday 28th July morning – finally something. Glassy conditions with a 3ft NW swell, period 10 seconds, and combined energy of 118 (moderate). That’s the first time the ocean looks half-decent. It’s small, but it’s clean. Not a standout, but a paddle-worthy morning if you’re desperate.

Then Thursday 30th July – this one gets interesting. The afternoon brings a 6ft NW swell with a period of 13 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 1086 (very strong). That’s a proper groundswell. But the wind is onshore from the WNW, so it’s messy. Marginal conditions – could be a choppy, chunky mess.

Friday 31st July morning – now this is the best of the run. The swell holds at 6ft, direction NW, period 12 seconds, combined energy 913 (very strong). The wind is cross from the NE at only 3 mph – almost glassy. That’s the cleanest setup we’ve seen. The wave comment says “marginal” but with 6ft and light cross-shore, you’ll find some decent ones. Just be aware – this is a two-week-out call, so keep an eye on it.

Copacabana is exposed to NW swell, so that direction works. The optimum swell direction is NW, so Friday 31st lines up perfectly. Crowds are *sometimes* an issue here, so you might have company. The break is consistent, intermediate level, so it’s not just for experts. At 6ft, it’s fine for most intermediates but might be a bit much for beginners.

Bottom line: the first 11 days are a write-off. The only real standout is Friday 31st July morning – that’s your best shot. The 30th could be okay if you don’t mind a bit of wind, but the 31st morning is cleaner.

Stay patient, mate.

- Rusty

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