Copacabana Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cooking.

Well, I gotta be straight with you – this stretch coming up is a tough one for us at Copacabana. Looking at the whole 16-day window, there’s a real long dry spell to start. We don’t see any decent surf until Monday the 27th of July, and even then it’s a bit of a mixed bag. The water temp is sitting at 72°, a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, which feels nice but doesn’t do much for the waves.

The week kicks off with a risk of thunderstorms on Saturday the 25th, and the wind is a messy cross-on from the WNW at 19 mph, pushing around a weak 4 ft NW swell. The energy is flat – just 71 – so it’s lumpy and poor. That pattern of rough, choppy conditions drags through Sunday too. The afternoon on Sunday the 26th actually sees a little glassy spell, but the swell is tiny (3 ft) and the period is short, so it’s not really offering anything.

Now, Monday the 27th of July is the first notch up. The swell bumps to 5 ft from the NW with a nice long period of 10 seconds. The energy climbs to 522 (moderate wave energy), and the wind is light out of the north at 3 mph. It’s a cross-on, but it’s light. The problem is it’s still described as marginal, with questionable tides. Tuesday the 28th morning looks a bit cleaner with the wind going cross-off from the ENE, and the swell hangs around 4 ft NW. The energy is 309, and it's described as “clean.” But it’s not a standout.

The real gem is the morning of Monday the 27th. For a brief window, that 5 ft NW swell with a 10-second period and calm-ish wind gives the best shape we’ll see. The swell direction (NW) matches the optimum direction for Copacabana, so it’s hitting the break right. Crowds are listed as “sometimes” here, so you might get a few others out, but it’s not a zoo. It’s still only a two out of ten on the score, but compared to the rest, it’s the best on offer.

After that, things drop off fast. The rest of the week is a grind of weak, short-period swells and messy winds. By Thursday the 30th, we’re down to 2 ft and energy of 58. Friday the 31st and Saturday the 1st of August have glassy mornings, but the swell is barely 2 ft. It’s not worth the walk.

The second week rolls in with the same story. We get a little bump on Sunday the 2nd of August with 4 ft from the NNW, but the wind is straight onshore and the period is only 7 seconds. It’s poor. The only real flash of hope is Thursday the 6th of August afternoon, where a 4 ft NW swell with an 11-second period and 353 energy pops up, but the wind is light cross-on, making it only marginal. Sunday the 9th of August brings a 5 ft NW swell in the morning, but the afternoon sees a bigger 8 ft NW swell with 711 energy, which is too big for beginners and the wind is onshore and strong. Not a good combination.

Overall, this is a lean period. The best day to paddle out is Monday the 27th of July morning. It’s not epic, but it’s the cleanest and most lined-up we’ll get. The rest is mostly for the hardcore or the kite surfers.

Rusty.

Read more