Bolsa Chica Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let's get into it. Rusty here.

First, let's be honest. The next two weeks at Bolsa Chica are looking like a real mixed bag, and mostly a quiet one. We’ve got a long stretch of small, weak surf ahead, and the wind is a bit of a problem. The water is much warmer than normal for this time of year, sitting at 70°, which is a solid 4° above average. That’s a nice touch for a paddle, but it doesn’t make up for the lack of real waves.

The forecast starts with a real flat spell. From Sunday the 19th right through until the morning of Thursday the 31st of July, we're looking at a full 12 days of mostly poor to marginal conditions. The swell is tiny, mostly under 3ft, and the wind is a constant onshore or cross-onshore breeze from the SW and WSW. The combined energy is moderate, but the quality is just not there. You’ll see a few mornings with a light breeze, but the swell is so short and weak that it’s barely worth a mention. The best you can say for that stretch is that the morning of Saturday the 25th and the morning of Sunday the 26th have a bit more energy (856 and 899) with a light offshore wind, but the swell is still a paltry 3ft and 3ft from the SSW. It’s marginal, but for a beginner, it might be a fun little push.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The end of the month and the start of August bring a pulse of real energy. On the morning of Friday the 31st of July, we see a sudden jump to a 5ft swell from the S, with a period of 16 seconds. That is a proper groundswell. The energy reading jumps to 1629, which is strong. The wind is light and offshore from the SSW. That’s a window. By the afternoon, the swell builds to 7ft from the S, with a massive 2203 energy reading. This is a standout.

This is the best on offer. The morning of Friday the 31st looks like the pick of the whole outlook. The swell size is 5ft, and with a light offshore wind, it will be clean. The period is a long 16 seconds, which means it’s a groundswell with good shape. At 7ft in the afternoon, it’s getting into the territory where it’s too big for beginners, but for the experienced crew, that’s a proper session. The swell direction is S, which is a good match for the SW optimum, so it will wrap in nicely.

The following morning, Saturday the 1st of August, keeps the energy going with a 5ft S swell, but the period drops to 13 seconds. Still a solid wave, but the wind is onshore, so it won’t be as clean. By Sunday the 2nd, it’s dropping back down to the small stuff.

So, the long and short of it is: you’ve got nearly two weeks of tiny, choppy, onshore junk. Wait it out. The real action is on the morning of Friday the 31st of July. That’s the one to circle on the calendar. For the morning of the 31st, it’s a clean, long-period groundswell from the S. It’s a go.

-Rusty

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