Bakio Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for Bakio. The next 16 days are a real mixed bag – a lot of time with small, messy, or just plain poor conditions, but there are a couple of windows where things could get interesting. We’ll take it day by day.

First up, the water is running much warmer than normal for this time of year, sitting at 76°F – that’s a solid 6°F above average, so it’s very unusual. Really warm water for a surf session, just a shame about the waves.

Tuesday the 21st and Wednesday the 22nd are a write-off. Surf is small, under 4 ft, with onshore and cross-shore winds making it messy. The wave energy is weak (157 down to 64), and the period is short (6-7 seconds). Not worth paddling out.

Thursday the 23rd morning is a tease. We get a glassy, dead-calm morning with a tiny 2 ft NNW swell, but it’s just too small to do anything with. The energy is only 48. Friday and Saturday the 24th and 25th are worse. Saturday the 25th sees a jump in height to 6 ft in the morning and 8 ft in the afternoon, but it’s blowing 22-25 mph from the W and WNW, creating a lumpy, cross-chop mess. The energy is strong (223 and 607), but the wind has ruined it. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Sunday the 26th stays windy and lumpy. Still no good.

Now, Monday the 27th is the standout of the whole outlook. The morning brings a solid 6 ft swell from the NW with a period of 9 seconds, bumping the wave energy up to 539 (moderate-strong). The wind is a light 6 mph from the NW, which is a light cross-onshore – it’s not perfect, but it’s manageable. The wave comment calls it marginal, but this is the best we’ll see. The afternoon holds similar size at 6 ft. This is the one to aim for if you’re keen. For a beginner, 6 ft is at the top end of their range, but a more experienced surfer will find something to work with here.

After that, Tuesday the 28th and Wednesday the 29th drop back to 5 ft and 4 ft, with the energy tailing off into the 200s. The wind is a bit better, but the quality is still marginal.

Then from Thursday the 30th all the way through to Wednesday the 5th of August, the surf drops right off. We’re looking at waves under 4 ft for the most part, with a lot of days in the 1 ft to 3 ft range. The wind does go glassy a few times early on the 2nd and 5th of August, but the swell is just too small. The energy is mostly below 100. There’s a long gap of nothing really surfable from the end of July through to the beginning of August.

The only real standout is Monday the 27th of July. The waves will be the biggest, the energy is there, and the wind is light enough to keep it clean. The rest of the period is mostly a waiting game.

Stay patient, and keep an eye on that Monday.

Rusty

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