Bakio Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. It’s Rusty here. The finder didn’t throw up any solid recommendations for the next 16 days, so I’ve got to be straight with you – it’s looking pretty bleak for a proper paddle session. The water’s sitting at a toasty 75° right now, which is much warmer than usual for this time of year, so at least the swim’s nice, but the waves? Not so much.

Let’s break it down. We’ve got a long stretch of nothing really. From Sunday the 19th of July right through to the morning of Tuesday the 28th, it’s all poor surf conditions. You’ll see small, weak, short-period windswells, mostly under 4 ft, with periods of 7 seconds or less. The wind is almost always cross-on or onshore, making a mess of things. The combined energy is low, often below 100, so there’s just no punch. The wave comment says it all: “poor surf conditions.” Unless you’re a beginner wanting to float around in knee-high chop, there’s nothing to get excited about.

Then, on Tuesday the 28th, we get a glimmer. The morning brings a glassy, clean 8 ft swell from the NW with an 8-second period. The combined energy jumps to 885, which is moderate to strong. The comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” But here’s the catch – that afternoon, the swell jumps to 10 ft with a 10-second period, and the energy is a massive 1584. That’s a lot of power. The forecast suggests it might be too big for Bakio, and the wind turns cross-on and choppy. So, for the experts, the Tuesday morning window could be a standout if you’re on it early, but it’s a narrow window and the size is intimidating.

Wednesday the 29th still has size, with 8 ft to 7 ft and a 10-second period, but the wind is cross-shore or cross-on, and the energy is still high (1090-891). The conditions are described as “marginal” or “poor.” The size is sending a warning – this is expert-only territory if you’re even thinking about it.

After that, it fades. From Thursday the 30th through to Monday the 3rd of August, it’s back to small, weak, and messy. The swell drops below 5 ft, the period drops, and the wind is generally cross-on or onshore. The energy falls back to the 100-300 range. There’s a brief moment on Friday the 31st morning with a clean, cross-offshore wind and a 3 ft, 9-second NW swell (energy 154), but it’s described as “surfable but very ordinary.” Not a call to arms.

So, overall, the one true standout is the Tuesday morning of the 28th – that 8 ft glassy NW swell. It’s the best you’ll see, but it’s for the experienced crew only. The rest of the 16 days is a write-off. For beach breaks with this much wind and swell, it’s looking more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. Keep an eye on the forecasts, but for now, I’d say don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

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