Bakio Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for the next couple of weeks.

Truth is, it’s a pretty quiet stretch ahead. The forecast is dry for a long time, with most days showing only small, weak swell and a lot of cross-onshore or choppy wind. There’s a few moments where things might get a bit more interesting, but nothing is screaming "go now."

The only real standout on the whole board is Bakio, a consistent, exposed beginner-friendly spot that works best with a NNW swell. The water temp is about average for the time of year, nothin’ unusual there.

Now, let’s walk through it. The first few days, from Friday the 10th through to Thursday the 16th, the swell is tiny – we’re talking 0.7ft to 3ft with combined energy barely hitting the double digits (63), and the wind is mostly cross-on or choppy. It’s a total write-off for paddle surfing. You’ll be staring at flat, bumpy water.

Things pick up a tiny bit on the morning of Friday the 17th, but it’s still poor surf conditions with a 2ft swell. Then Saturday the 18th morning sees a bit of a lift: 4ft from the NW at 7 seconds, with moderate cross-shore wind. Combined energy climbs to 136, but it’s still a choppy, messy affair. The afternoon bumps up to 5ft, but the wind swings cross-onshore and it gets real choppy.

Sunday the 19th brings the biggest swell of the whole period: 5ft from the NW at 8 seconds on the morning, with a combined energy of 389. That’s a solid amount of juice for a beach break, but the wind is a moderate cross-shore, so it’s gonna be a messy, lumpy beast. By the afternoon, it’s 5ft with cross-onshore wind and 25 km/h (16 mph) gusts. This is really only for experienced surfers, and honestly, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The wind is just too strong and onshore for clean lines.

The rest of the third week drifts back into the weak stuff. The only glimmer comes on Tuesday the 21st morning: a 4ft, 8-second NW swell with a light cross-onshore wind and a combined energy of 227. The data says it’s *marginal* – that’s the best we’ve got. Wednesday the 22nd morning is glassy, but only 3ft with a combined energy of 97, so it’s surfable but very ordinary.

After that, the swell fades away again into the 25th, with a brief flicker of a 2ft, 11-second period swell on Saturday the 25th morning, but it’s ruined by a 20 km/h (12 mph) cross-shore wind.

So, what’s the verdict? The best chance for a session is probably the morning of Tuesday the 21st. It’s not great, but it’s the only window where the swell is over 3ft and the wind isn’t howling. The Sunday the 19th is the biggest swell, but it’s a windy mess. For the rest of the 16 days, it’s either flat or blown out. Keep an eye on the forecasts, this one’s a long shot.

Rusty.

Read more