Bakio Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for our local stretch over the next couple of weeks. It's a bit of a mixed bag, to be honest, with not much happening right out of the gate.

Right now, and for the next several days, it's looking pretty flat and messy. The first hint of anything worth paddling out for shows up on Saturday the 5th of September at Bakio. We've got a pulse of new swell rolling in, about 3 ft from the NNW with a very long period of 14 seconds, pushing the combined wave energy up to 323. That’s a groundswell, so it'll have some punch but those long gaps between sets will be noticeable. The problem is the wind is coming from the east, making for a bumpy cross-shore. It’s a marginal call, so don't expect perfection. The water temp here is sitting at 73°, which feels a touch warmer than average for this time of year, so you can lose the thick steamer.

Saturday afternoon sees the swell jump to about 5 ft, but the period drops a bit and the onshore wind kicks in, turning it into a choppy mess. Not our time.

Sunday the 6th and Monday the 7th stay in that marginal zone. Decent enough swell energy, around 3 ft to 4 ft, but the wind just won't play ball from the west. It stays cross or cross-on, so the conditions will be a bit lumpy. The standouts? Honestly, there aren't any in this first week. The consistent message from the data is poor surf conditions.

We do get a glimmer of hope heading into the second week. Tuesday the 8th of September morning has 4 ft from the NW with a northerly onshore wind… still not great.

Now, Wednesday the 9th of September is where things get interesting. The swell bumps up to about 5 ft from the NW with an 11-second period. The wave energy jumps right up to 652. The light westerly wind in the morning will keep it semi-clean with a cross-shore bump. The afternoon is cleaner but smaller. It's rated marginal, but for me, this is the best actual swell size we’ve had, and the wind is manageable. It’s worth a look if you’re keen.

Thursday the 10th of September morning is a real tease – clean, cross-offshore wind from the WSW, and a solid 5 ft swell. This would be the pick of the period if the wind holds, but the afternoon gets wrecked by a strong onshore breeze.

The long-range stuff from the 15th and 16th of September is promising but less certain. Tuesday the 15th and Wednesday the 16th both show glassy mornings with clean conditions and a consistent 3 ft to 3 ft NW swell with a nice long 11-12 second period. Wave energy sits around 218 to 272, so moderate energy. The wind goes light offshore or glass, which at a beach break like Bakio is a gift. If you can get out there for an early session on those mornings, you’ll score some clean, lined-up waves. It’s the best bet for the second half of the outlook.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is a write-off with poor conditions. The standout window is the 15th and 16th, especially the mornings. It’s not going to be huge, but the tide and wind look right. Keep the expectations in check, but be ready to act.

Rusty.

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