Whangamata Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what the ocean’s got lined up for us over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you: it's gonna be a slow grind for a while. The surf is going to be tiny and pretty average for the first week or so. We're talking about a long, flat spell. From now until about the 18th, there’s just nothing doing. You'll see ankle-biters and knee-high slop, with the swell energy readings staying down in the weak zone, between 14 and 84. It's the kind of stuff that’s only good for a float on a mal if you're desperate. The winds are mostly offshore or cross-off, keeping things clean, but there’s just no power behind it. The swell is coming from the NE to ENE but with periods around 11 to 15 seconds. Don't get too excited about the 15-second period on Wednesday afternoon, as there's barely a pulse with it.

We finally see a bit of a pulse around Saturday the 19th. The swell bumps up to just over 4ft to nearly 6ft from the north, but it’s short-period, windswell at just 7 seconds. The wind is howling from the NW at 15 mph, which is going to chop it up something fierce. There's some moderate energy in the water (reading 172-279), but the quality is going to be poor. It's going to be a messy, lumpy, cross-shore mess. Honestly, with that wind and that kind of short-period swell, this setup at Whangamata Beach might be more interesting for the kite surfers than us paddle surfers.

Sunday the 20th cleans up a bit. We get some gentle offshore winds from the SW, and the swell drops a little to around 4ft to 4ft, still from the NNE. The period is still short at 7 seconds, so expect it to be a bit soft and crumbly. It’s surfable, but very ordinary. A couple of knee-to-waist-high sliders if you're keen.

Now, here’s where things get interesting. Hold on to your boards, because it looks like the ocean is finally going to wake up on Monday the 21st. We've got a significant jump in size, and it's going to be big. Monday afternoon sees a 12ft swell from the ENE with a 9-second period, and the energy reading is a very strong 2027. The wind is a moderate offshore from the WSW, so it will be clean, but this is a lot of water for Whangamata. This is beyond beginner territory, and even for the experienced crew, it's going to be a handful. The forecast notes it's predicted to be too big for this break, and I'd have to agree.

Tuesday the 22nd looks equally heavy. The morning is glassy with a light SSW breeze, and we still have that 12ft ENE swell, but now the period has stretched out to a very long 12 seconds. The wave energy is through the roof at a massive 3612. This is a powerful, long-period groundswell. While that long period brings serious energy, it can also make a beach break like this close out and become a washing machine. The afternoon turns a bit cross-on, which won't help. This is big, heavy, expert-only territory.

The standout window in this whole outlook is shaping up to be Wednesday the 23rd. This is the day to clear your schedule. The swell drops to a much more manageable 7ft from the ENE with an 11-second period. The energy is still strong at 972, but it’s not the same freight train as the previous days. More importantly, Wednesday morning we get a light WSW offshore wind, and Wednesday afternoon goes completely glassy with a WNW breeze. The forecast is calling for “expect very good surf conditions.” This is the one, folks. The combination of solid, powerful swell and clean, glassy conditions will be the closest to perfection we’ll see in this forecast period. It's still a solid size, so it’s not for beginners, but for everyone else, this is the pick of the fortnight.

Thursday the 24th sees it fade fast. The swell drops back to around 3ft from the ENE, but the wind swings onshore from the NNE, adding some chop and killing the quality. It’s a bit of a letdown after the days before, but that’s the ocean for you.

So, there you have it. A long, slow flat spell to start, then a brief and powerful pulse of large, tricky surf, with that window on Wednesday the 23rd being the clear standout. Be patient, pick your moment, and don't get caught inside on the 21st and 22nd.

Rusty out.

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