Wharariki Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s happening at Wharariki Beach. We’ve got a big, exposed west-facing beach on our hands, and that northwest optimum swell direction gives us some solid potential, but honestly, the 16-day window is a mixed bag with more drama than clean waves.

We start on Thursday the 10th with a modest 3ft west swell rolling in, but it’s got some serious grunt behind it – the combined energy is pumping at 1033, which is moderate wave energy. There’s a moderate breeze from the SSW making it cross-off, so it’s clean enough, but it’s only a marginal session. Water temp is sitting at 57°, with an anomaly of 1°, so pretty average for this time of year. Not a standout, just a warm-up.

Friday the 11th kicks up quickly. Morning sees 8ft west swell at a very long 18 seconds – that’s groundswell with proper energy (4023 combined), but the wind is howling from the WSW at 25 mph, cross-off but strong. It’s clean but already getting too big for beginners. The afternoon jumps to 10ft with the same long period, and the combined energy is a massive 5615 – that’s strong to very strong energy. The wind is 28 mph. Honestly, this is expert territory, and while the conditions are favorable, it’s a beast.

Saturday the 12th keeps the 10ft west swell going, periods around 16 seconds. Morning winds are a more manageable 16 mph from the SW, still cross-off, and energy is 4279. Afternoon winds pick up to 22 mph from the WSW. Both sessions are clean but overpowering – this is only for paddlers who know what they’re doing. The water is still around average temp.

Sunday the 13th morning, the swell drops to 5ft, period 17 seconds, energy at 2089, but the wind is still a fresh 22 mph from the WSW. It’s clean but marginal. The afternoon is the best it’s been all week: 5ft west swell, 16 seconds, light breeze from the southwest at only 6 mph, making it glassy clean. Combined energy is still moderate at 2549. This is the window for intermediate surfers to get a piece of it before the week turns ugly. This is the pick of the first week.

From Monday the 14th onward, it goes downhill fast. Swell sticks around 5 to 7ft but the wind cranks up – we’re looking at 31 mph from the west by the afternoon, near gale force, and the wave comment says poor surf conditions. Tuesday the 15th has 5-5ft swell but the wind is strong from the west, creating messy cross-chop. Not worth paddling out.

Wednesday the 16th through to Saturday the 19th is a write-off. Swell is 7ft to 10ft, but winds are consistently strong breeze to gale force, 28 to 43 mph, with cross-off or cross-shore winds and gale-force cross-shore waves. The combined energy peaks at 6809 on the 16th, but it’s just too dangerous. This is more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle-surfing one. Only experts should even look at it, and even then, it’s grim.

Sunday the 20th sees the swell drop to 5ft but winds are still 22 to 31 mph from the WSW. Marginal at best. Monday the 21st is down to 3ft, only 444 combined energy, and still strong winds. Not good.

The second week, from the 22nd to the 25th, is flat and messy. Swell is 2ft to 4ft, periods around 13-15 seconds, but the wind is all over the place – east, northwest – and often onshore or cross-shore. Combined energy is weak, 128 to 712. The waves are small, choppy, and lumpy. There’s nothing to get excited about.

The only true standout in this whole run is Sunday afternoon the 13th. That 5ft west swell with that glassy light wind will give you clean, long-period lines on the exposed beach. It’s consistent, uncrowded (never any crowds here), and ideal for intermediates wanting a proper session. After that, it’s either too big, too windy, or too small.

In short: Sunday arvo is your moment. The rest is either for the die-hards or the kite crew.

- Rusty

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