Wainui Bay Chalet Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next couple of weeks are a real mixed bag. We’ve got a solid window of surf coming up, but it’s sandwiched between some pretty wild conditions. The ocean is gonna be angry before it gets friendly.

The first real chance to get wet kicks off on Monday the 18th. There’s a solid 10ft of south swell in the water, but the wind is going to be howling from the southwest. It’s gonna be lumpy and messy, too big for most of us to handle at Wainui Bay Chalet (Wainui-Bay-Chalet). The energy is moderate, sitting at (1972), but it’s just not clean. The swell is predicted to be too big for this break, so I’d give it a miss unless you’re seriously experienced.

We get another pulse on Wednesday the 20th, with a 10ft SSW groundswell at 13 seconds. The wind swings to the west-southwest and drops off a touch. It’s cross-off, and the report says it’ll be clean. The energy is strong at (3859), and for a moment, this looks like the best of the week. But again, the size is the problem. It’s a heavy 10-foot wave, and for this spot, that’s just too much. It’s going to be a washing machine.

Then comes the calm. A serious drop-off. From Thursday afternoon through the start of the next week, we’re looking at waves that are too small to bother with. There’s a good 4-5 day gap where you’re better off leaving the board in the car. A bit of knee-high slop and some clean but tiny conditions. The energy is weak, falling to under (100) at times. This is a real lull.

But hold on. Things start to perk up around Tuesday the 26th. It’s a longer range call, so don’t book your flights yet, but the models are showing a 5ft south swell with a bit more punch, energy at (504). The wind is light from the north and it’s cross-off, keeping the surface clean. This is the one that gets the stoke going. It’s not massive, but it looks like a proper, rideable wave and the conditions finally line up. This is the standout of the whole forecast. The water’s also running a bit colder than normal for this time of year, down about 2°F, so a decent hood is in order.

After that, it’s a bit of a mix-up. A few onshore days and some smaller swells. The period drops off, and the quality fades. There’s a chance for a clean morning on Saturday the 29th with a 5ft south swell and light offshore wind, but it’s short-lived. It’s a fade-out rather than a big finish.

So, to sum it up: the swell window is early next week, but it’s too big and messy. The real sweet spot is that Tuesday the 26th. That’s the day to circle on the calendar. The rest is either too big, too small, or blown out. Keep your eyes on that Tuesday.

-Rusty.

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