Wainui Bay Chalet Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, looking at the next 16 days for Wainui Bay Chalet. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, but there’s a couple of solid windows if you’re patient.

The overall pattern kicks off with a long stretch of small, ordinary surf. From Monday 13th July right through to Thursday 16th, the waves are tiny—mostly ankle to knee-high, with combined energy readings struggling to hit even 200 (weak). The wind is all over the shop, shifting from cross-off to glassy, but you’re chasing scraps. The water temp is sitting around 57°, which is about average for the time of year, so nothing weird there.

The first real standout shows up on Friday morning 17th July. The swell jumps to 5ft from the ESE with a very long period of 16 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy, and the combined energy reading hits 1034 (moderate to strong). The wind is light from the west, offering a clean cross-off. This is a good one for experienced surfers—the wave size is manageable but with that long period, it’ll be lining up nicely. Expect some decent waves and not too many people mid-week, though crowds are sometimes a factor here. The only downside is that long period swell can make beach breaks a bit straight, but the setup here handles it.

Saturday morning 18th July is another solid call. The swell drops just a touch to 4ft, but still from the ESE with a 14-second period. Combined energy is 1051 (strong). The wind turns offshore from the NNW, blowing light and clean. This is a prime morning for intermediate to advanced surfers—clean, lined-up waves with a bit of punch. The morning is the pick; the afternoon stays pretty good too, just with a cross-off breeze.

After that, the outlook turns messy. Sunday 19th July gets hammered by strong onshore winds, turning the surf into a lumpy, cross-onshore mess. The swell drops to 3ft but the energy is high (867) and the wind is fresh, so it’s actually better for kite surfing than paddle surfing. Then Monday 20th July sees the swell pump up to 8ft from the south, but that’s too big for this break—it’s going to be a washing machine, and the energy reading is off the charts at 2024. Only for total experts, and even then, it’s sketchy.

From Tuesday 21st July onward, the forecast gets pretty grim. There’s a whole week of onshore winds, small to moderate swell, and poor surf conditions. The best you’ll see is maybe a knee-high wave with a cross-on breeze, and the combined energy readings sit between 400 and 600 (weak to moderate). The run from 21st to 26th July is a write-off for quality surfing. The last glimmer of hope is Saturday 25th July, but the swell is 7ft and cross-on again—too big and messy. The final few days (27th and 28th July) are just more of the same: lumpy, choppy, and not worth paddling out.

So, bottom line: the best sessions are Friday morning 17th July and Saturday morning 18th July. Everything else is either tiny, blown out, or too big. If you’re keen, get in the water early on those two days, and keep an eye on the forecast—it tends to change, but this run looks pretty locked in.

Rusty.

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