Sponge bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s coming for Sponge Bay over the next couple weeks, and I’ll keep it straight—it’s a mixed bag.

First thing, the water’s running a touch cold for this time of year, sitting at about 56°F, around 2°F below what’s normal. You’ll feel it when you first drop in.

Looking at the whole run, we’ve got a big, frustrating gap at the start. From Tuesday, July 7th, all the way through to midday Sunday, July 12th, it’s pretty much a no-go. There’s plenty of energy in the water—moderate at first, with a combined swell energy of 427, ramping up to a very strong 5444 by Friday afternoon—but the wind is brutal. Straight onshore, screaming from the south at 22 to 28 mph, with heavy rain and a 5ft to 13ft swell that’s all wind-chop. For a beach-and-reef setup like this, that’s kite surfing territory, not paddle surfing.

The first real chance to get wet comes Sunday afternoon, July 12th. It’s small, but the conditions will be gorgeous. A light 4ft swell from the ESE with a combined energy of 381, and the wind goes glassy—dead flat, not a ripple. Perfect for a longboard or a quiet session with no hassle.

Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th stay small, with 3ft to 3ft from the ESE, but finally we get clean offshore breezes from the north and northwest. The waves are nothing special, but the lineup will be friendly. Good for beginners or just getting some water time.

Now, here’s the real standout. Wednesday, July 15th afternoon. Swell bumps up to 6ft from the ESE, and the period stretches all the way out to 16 seconds—that’s a true groundswell. Combined swell energy hits 1613, which is strong. The wind is light offshore from the NNW. This will produce clean, long-running walls at Sponge Bay. Because of the long period, sets will have gaps, making the paddle out easier. This is excellent for experienced surfers. Mark that session.

Thursday the 16th still has a clean 5ft from the ESE with a 14-second period, but the wind picks up to 19 mph from the NNW, making it a bit more challenging. Still doable for the keen.

Then we drop off again. From Friday the 17th through to Saturday the 19th of July, the swell falls under 3ft and the winds get messy—cross-onshore or just weak. Not worth the drive.

Looking further out, Sunday the 19th of July morning has a tiny 3ft from the ESE with a clean, cross-offshore breeze. It is small, but the conditions will be tidy.

The next notable date is Monday, July 20th morning. There’s a 10ft swell predicted from the SSW, but it’s flagged as too big for this break—combined energy of 1859, a short 10-second period, and likely closing out the whole beach. That’s for experts only, and even then it might be a wall of whitewater. Best to ignore that and look at the late afternoon of the 20th, where we get a clean 3ft ESE swell with light cross-offshore wind.

From the 21st to the 22nd of July, the surf stays tiny at 3ft to 4ft from the ESE, but the winds are consistently offshore from the north to northwest. Wednesday afternoon the 22nd has a moderate 16 mph offshore breeze and a swell energy of 595, giving you clean, small waves.

The best bet is clear: Wednesday, July 15th afternoon for the biggest, cleanest groundswell. For a glassy, relaxed paddle, Sunday, July 12th afternoon is your spot. The long-range window around the 20th could deliver for the experts, but it’s less certain.

Rusty.

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