Sponge bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the table for Sponge Bay.

First things first, the water is sitting at 57°, which is just a fraction cooler than usual for this time of year. Nothing to write home about, just a tad fresh.

Honestly, the next few days are a bit of a write-off. We're looking at tiny dribble through Tuesday and Wednesday, with swell barely cracking 1 ft. The wind is light and offshore or glassy at times, which would be a dream, but there's just no push in the ocean. The combined energy is weak, in the 40-60 range. It's more of a paddle-around-on-a-foamie kind of vibe.

Thursday the 16th shows a glimmer of life with some 2 ft groundswell, period jumping to 15 seconds, and energy hitting 182. The wind is cross-offshore, so it'll be clean, but it's still very small for a standard shortboard. The same goes for Friday the 17th, where we see a jump to 5 ft, but the wind is a mess—cross in the morning and onshore in the afternoon. The energy is strong (1058), but the conditions are marginal.

Now, here's the standout. Saturday morning, the 18th of July. The wind is light and offshore from the NNW, and we've got a clean 4 ft of ESE groundswell, with a 14-second period. The energy is a solid 933, and the wave comment is "expect very good surf conditions." This is your window. The break is a beach and reef setup, and it's fairly consistent. For a beginner, 4 ft is manageable, and for the average surfer, it's going to be fun and clean. The swell direction is ESE, which is just a bit off the optimum SSE, but it's close enough to wrap in nicely. The crowds are listed as "sometimes," so you might get a few out, but on a Saturday, expect a few locals to be on it.

The rest of that weekend goes downhill. Sunday the 19th gets hammered by a 19-25 mph onshore wind, turning the 7 ft swell into a messy, blown-out washing machine. That's a no-go.

Monday the 20th through Thursday the 24th is a long stretch of onshore and cross-shore winds, mostly from the east, with swell dropping back to 2 ft to 4 ft. The energy is moderate to weak, and the conditions are described as "poor" to "marginal." It's a frustrating week for anyone watching the forecast.

There's a big pulse of energy coming around the 26th and 27th of July, with swell hitting 10 ft to 15 ft, and combined energy readings in the thousands (over 8000 on the 27th). That's serious, heavy water. However, the forecast notes it's "predicted to be too big for this break." For a beach and reef set-up, that much swell is going to be a washing machine, and with a short period of 9-12 seconds, it won't be holding its shape. This is expert-only territory, and even then, it might be more of a survival mission than a fun session. The wind is light to moderate, but the sheer size makes it dangerous.

The outlook improves as we head into the 29th of July. Wednesday morning looks promising with 6 ft of ESE groundswell, a 10-second period, and a light offshore wind from the NW. The energy is still strong at 791, and the conditions are "very good." That's likely your second best bet, but it's a long way out.

So, to wrap it up: Saturday morning, the 18th of July, is your best bet. Clean, offshore wind, fun-sized swell, and good energy. The rest of the period is a mix of too small, too windy, or too big. Keep your eyes on the 29th as a longer-range possibility, but don't bank on it.

Rusty.

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