204 Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s in store for 204.

Alright, 204 is a tricky one. For an advanced-level spot that’s fairly consistent and exposed to the swell, the next couple of weeks are mostly a story of what could have been. The water is sitting at a very warm 74°F with a temperature anomaly of 6°F above normal – that’s seriously unusual for this time of year. You’ll notice it.

The first real recommendation doesn’t come until Wednesday the 9th of September. Before that, it’s a write-off. Sunday the 6th brings a moderate 5ft south swell with a 13-second period and strong combined energy (1292), but the cross-offshore wind from the NNE at 12 mph messes it up, and the report flags marginal tide conditions. Monday the 7th starts with a 6ft SSW swell and decent energy (1063), but the wind is cross and swingy – the morning cross-shore chop kills it, and by the afternoon a 12 mph cross-onshore makes it a mess.

Tuesday the 8th is flat and poor, with small 3-4ft SSW swells and cross-onshore winds.

Wednesday the 9th is where it finally gets interesting. The morning brings a tiny 2ft SW swell, but the period is a very long 16 seconds, which is proper groundswell energy. The combined energy is moderate at 424, and here’s the kicker – the wind goes glassy. I mean, dead flat, glassy conditions. That’s a major plus. For an exposed spot like 204, a glassy morning on a long-period SW groundswell is a rare treat. The waves will be clean, but small. It’s not going to be big, but for a patient surfer on a longboard or a fish, it’s the standout of the whole forecast. The afternoon turns to a light offshore wind, but the wave comment still flags marginal tide, so the morning glass-off is your window.

Thursday the 10th of September has a 3ft SW swell with a very long 17-second period and moderate energy (616). The wind is cross-on from the SSW in the morning and offshore in the afternoon, but the report again calls it marginal. Still, that swell direction (SW) matches the optimum for 204 (SSW) pretty well, so there’s potential for good shape.

Everything from Friday the 11th onward, right through to Monday the 21st of September, is a long, dull stretch. Swell sizes hang around 1ft to 4ft, mostly from the SW or SSW, with periods all over the place. The wind is almost always a light to moderate cross-onshore, with consistently poor surf conditions flagged. The energy levels stay moderate (210-703), but the quality just isn’t there. It’s a 10-day gap of nothing worth paddling out for.

In short, the best is clearly the Wednesday 9th morning glass-off. It won’t be big, but it’ll be clean. If you can’t make that, the Thursday 10th has a touch more swell, but you’ll have to work around the cross-on wind for cleaner lines.

- Rusty

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