Toquay Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Toquay Reef.

First things first, the water temp is sitting at about 56°, which is pretty much bang on for the time of year. Nothing strange there.

The next few days are a mixed bag. We’ve got a solid, long-period groundswell showing up from the SSW and SW. The energy is strong, around 2080, and the wait between sets will be noticeable – that’s just the nature of a 16-second swell on a reef like this. Friday afternoon sees the first proper surf with a 7 ft swell, but the wind is onshore from the SE, so it’s going to be a bit of a scramble. Not the one to get excited about.

Saturday the 12th is where it starts to clean up. The wind swings to a light N breeze, cross-off, and the swell eases a little to 6 ft. The water will be glassy, and the waves will have proper shape thanks to that 15-second period. This is a solid morning for experienced surfers, and the crowd factor is only a "sometimes" issue, so you’ve got a good chance of a decent session without too much hassle. The energy is still substantial at 1427.

Sunday the 13th sees the swell drop further to 4 ft, and the wind gets a bit punchier from the N at 12 mph. It’s still cross-off, so it’ll be clean, but the energy is way down to 509, and the wave size is pretty modest. More of a training day for the intermediate crew.

There is a real quiet patch from Monday the 14th through to Tuesday the 15th morning. The swell drops to 2 ft and the wind gets messy. Then Tuesday afternoon hits – the swell jumps to 8 ft, strong energy (3901), but the wind is howling from the WSW at 15 mph, turning into a messy 22 mph cross-shore by the afternoon. That’s big, raw, and ugly. More of a kite-surfing show than a paddling one. Wednesday the 16th is similar, big swell but onshore wind.

The true standout comes on Thursday morning the 17th. The swell is 5 ft from the SSW, 14-second period, and the wind is a light W breeze, cross-off. The energy is solid at 1057, and the conditions will be clean and lined up. This is the best bet of the first week for a proper, enjoyable session.

Friday the 18th morning is another good call, with a 5 ft SSW swell and a moderate NW offshore wind at 12 mph. It’ll be a bit windier, but still clean and powerful. After that, the size fades through the weekend into a long, quiet run.

Around Monday the 21st, a new pulse of 7 ft SW swell arrives with a gentle offshore WNW breeze. That Monday afternoon looks excellent – clean, lined-up waves for experienced surfers. The energy is 2008, so there’s some proper power in the water.

Tuesday the 22nd morning gets big again, 8 ft, with a 16-second period and over 3400 energy. The wind is cross-off from the W, but that’s a lot of water moving. It’s expert-only territory. The afternoon gets chopped up by a SW cross-shore.

After that, the second week sees a general decline. A few mornings with 3 ft to 4 ft clean waves (like Thursday the 24th and Saturday the 26th), but nothing to write home about. The energy is low, in the 400–500 range. The last notable wave is on Saturday morning the 26th with 3 ft and a light offshore NW breeze – a nice, gentle end to the outlook.

So, if you’re picking your moment, I’d say Thursday the 17th morning is the one to aim for. Saturday the 12th morning is a close second for size and cleanliness. Don’t bother with that Tuesday the 15th or 22nd unless you own a kite.

Rusty.

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