Toquay Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

We’re looking at a solid period for Toquay Reef. The pattern shows a big pulse of SW groundswell arriving this weekend and building through the middle of next week, with clean conditions on offer at times. The water temp is sitting at 57°F, which is about average for this time of year, so nothing weird going on there.

Kicking off Saturday the 5th, it’s a bit of a wait. Toquay Reef picks up a 5ft SW groundswell with a very long 15-second period, but the wind is a fresh 22 mph from the WNW, making it cross-off and a bit lumpy. Not the best start, but it’s a sign of things to come.

Sunday the 6th morning is where it starts to get interesting. There’s a 5ft SSW swell, 10-second period, and the wind drops right off to a light 6 mph breeze from the WSW. It’s cross-off and clean – looking like good waves. That afternoon, the swell jumps to 8ft from the SW with a lovely 14-second period, but the wind goes cross and a little stronger, so it’s got some chop. Still, there’s plenty of energy in the water (combined energy 2955).

Monday the 7th morning holds 6ft of SW swell, 12-second period, with a light cross breeze. It’s okay, but not the standout. The real buzz is building.

Tuesday the 8th morning is a treat. The swell drops to 3ft, but it’s a long-period 18-second SW groundswell, and the wind is light and cross-off from the west. Clean as a whistle. Perfect for more experienced surfers on the reef; the long period means longer lulls, making paddle-outs easier, and the reef will shape it up nicely. Combined energy is 1070 – moderate, but quality over quantity here.

Wednesday the 9th afternoon sees the biggest swell of the forecast so far: 12ft from the SW, 18-second period, and the combined energy hits a massive 14515. That’s a lot of power. However, the wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-shore, making it lumpy. This is expert-only territory; too big and chunky for most.

Then on Thursday the 10th, it’s still big – 10ft to 8ft SW/SSW swell, 16–18 second period, but the wind stays cross. Not the cleanest but plenty of juice.

Now, here’s a true standout: Saturday the 12th. The morning offers a 6ft SSW swell, 16-second period, with a light north wind – cross-off and clean. Then the afternoon is even better: 5ft SSW swell, 15-second period, and the wind turns offshore from the NNW at just 6 mph. Glassy conditions on the reef, combined energy 1106. This is the pick of the bunch: clean, solid groundswell, and the offshore wind will have the reef lines peeling. It’s a reef break, and crowds are sometimes an issue, but with conditions like this, it’ll be worth sharing the water.

The following week has more action. Wednesday the 16th morning brings another big pulse: 12ft SW swell, 14-second period, and this time the wind is offshore from the WNW at 12 mph. Combined energy 6440. That’s a powerful, clean swell for experts only. Thursday the 17th morning is glassy – 8ft SSW swell, 16-second period, with no wind. Absolutely pristine. The water will be like a mirror, and the reef will be firing.

After that, things taper off into smaller, cleaner swells through the 19th and 20th, but nothing that matches the quality of that Saturday or the big Wednesday.

Overall, the call is clear: Saturday the 12th is the one to circle. Strong groundswell, offshore wind, and a reef setup that loves that SSW direction. Thursday the 17th morning is the other standout – glassy and clean with a solid 8ft. Both are worth getting wet for.

Rusty.

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