Toquay Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it. We’ve got a mixed bag of a run coming up over the next couple of weeks here at Toquay Reef. It’s not all doom and gloom, but you’re going to need to pick your moments. The water’s sitting around 56.7°F which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year, so nothing weird going on there.

The first real window of opportunity kicks off on Friday morning, the 4th. We’ve got a clean 7.2ft SW groundswell with a solid 16-second period, and a light offshore wind. The energy is strong, coming in at 2357, and the place should be firing. It’s a bit on the bigger side, so it’s for the experienced crew, but the conditions look spot on. Saturday, the 5th, it backs off a touch to 5.2ft but the wind picks up, making it a bit more of a wrestle. It’s still surfable, but the quality drops.

Then Sunday the 6th gets interesting. The swell jumps back up to 9.8ft in the morning, pushing 13.1ft by the afternoon, with energy going right up to 4226. The wind is cross-off and light, so it’ll be powerful but clean. This is another one for the solid surfers only—at this size, it’s too much for beginners. Monday the 7th, the whole thing just shuts down. The swell drops to under 3.3ft, the wind goes onshore and choppy, and it’s a write-off. We’re looking at a few flat days here, with nothing on offer until Tuesday morning the 8th.

Tuesday the 8th sees a small but clean 3ft bump with a very long 18-second period, and the wind is dead off. The energy’s weak at 1010, but for a reef, that long period could still give you a few glassy ones. The afternoon pushes up a bit with 4.6ft, but the wind swings cross-onshore, so the morning is the call.

Wednesday the 9th is when the ocean decides to get mean. The swell surges to 11.5ft in the morning and 13.1ft in the afternoon, with the energy going ballistic—11147 and then 21130! That’s a lot of water moving. The wind is cross and fresh, making it lumpy. This isn’t a surf day; this is a day to watch from the beach. It might be interesting for the kite crew, but for paddle surfing, it’s a no-go. Thursday the 10th stays big at 9.8ft but with an onshore wind, it’s going to be a messy, choppy mess. Let that one settle.

Friday the 11th the swell drops back down to 5.6ft, but the direction and wind aren’t great. It clears up a bit by Saturday the 12th with 4.6ft and light wind, a bit of a cleaner option, but nothing special.

The following week is a big drop off. From Sunday the 13th through to Tuesday the 15th, we’re looking at small, weak surf, mostly under 3.3ft, with energy levels in the low hundreds. The wind is okay, but there’s just not enough swell to get excited about. It’s a quiet few days.

Things start to rouse again on Wednesday the 16th with a bump in the afternoon, but the period is short and it’s cross-onshore. Then Thursday the 17th throws a bit of a wildcard—the swell jumps back up to 9.8ft with a 13-second period, and the morning has light cross-off winds and solid energy (3373). It looks powerful and clean for the experienced. The afternoon is ruined by a fresh onshore wind, so it’s a morning-only window.

Friday the 18th keeps the 9.8ft swell but the wind is straight onshore. It’s going to be big and sloppy. This one’s a pass for the surfboard, definitely looking more like a kite day.

Finally, Saturday the 19th brings us back to a cleaner 4.6ft SW swell with a 16-second period and light cross-off winds. The energy is moderate at 1075, and it should shape up nicely for a last surf of the run.

So, to call it: the standout days are Friday the 4th and Sunday the 6th, with that massive pulse on Wednesday the 9th being the one for the big-wave chargers and the tow crew. The second week has a few promising windows, but you’ll have to be on your toes. The long gaps of flatness around the 10th to the 15th are the price we pay, but it looks like it’ll pick up again towards that final Saturday.

Keep it salty.

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