Toquay Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for Toquay Reef over the next couple of weeks.

We’ve got a solid run of groundswell on the way, all from the SW, which is exactly what this reef wants to see. The water is sitting at 57°F, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so nothing weird there. The first real action kicks off Monday afternoon, August 31st, with a clean 5ft SW groundswell at 15 seconds. The combined energy is a meaty 1161 (moderate wave energy), and with a light SE breeze keeping things smooth, it’s a decent start. Not a standout, but a good sign of things to come.

Tuesday afternoon, September 1st, is where things get a little more interesting. The swell is a bit smaller at 3ft, but the wind swings around to the NW and goes offshore, cleaning up the surface perfectly. The energy is still solid at 448 (moderate wave energy). This makes for a clean, workable afternoon session.

The real highlight is shaping up for Wednesday afternoon, September 2nd. Toquay Reef will be handling a 5ft SW swell at 15 seconds, with the combined energy pumping at 1222 (moderate wave energy). The wind is WNW, cross-offshore, and light at 9 mph. This is the kind of setup that turns this reef on – clean lines, good shape, and plenty of power for an intermediate surfer. This is the best session on offer in the first week.

Now, hold on to your boards, because Thursday, September 3rd, gets wild. The swell jumps to 12ft in the morning and 15ft in the afternoon, with the combined energy hitting a massive 10818 (very strong wave energy) by the afternoon. The wind is cross-off, so the surface will be clean, but this is way too much for this break. It’s a big-wave day for experts only, if anyone is brave enough.

After that, the swell settles back down to the 6ft to 8ft range from Friday, September 4th, through to Sunday, September 6th. The wind is mostly cross-off, but it’s stronger, often in the 12-25 mph range, which will make things a bit lumpy. The energy is still high, but the quality drops off.

There’s a flat spell from Monday, September 7th, into Tuesday morning, September 8th, with poor conditions and small, weak swell. Then we get a second pulse of long-period groundswell. Tuesday afternoon, September 8th, sees a 7ft SW swell at 18 seconds, with 3256 (strong wave energy) and a cross-offshore breeze. This is where the long period really matters – the waves will have serious push and will wrap around the reef beautifully.

The absolute standout of the entire 16-day window is Thursday morning, September 10th. We’re looking at a 7ft SW groundswell with a period of 19 seconds – that’s proper, long-period groundswell. The combined energy is 2802 (strong wave energy). But the kicker? The wind is from the north at just 3 mph, and it's glassy. That’s perfect, clean, smooth conditions. For an experienced surfer, this is the session to circle on the calendar. Just be aware that with a period this long, the sets might be more powerful and have longer lulls between them.

Friday morning, September 11th, is also excellent – another glassy session with a 5ft, 17-second groundswell. The energy is 1580 (moderate wave energy). It’s a bit smaller than Thursday, but still a fantastic option.

The surf tails off after that. From Saturday, September 12th, through to the end of the forecast on September 15th, the swell drops below 5ft, and the wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, making for choppy, less exciting conditions. The morning of Tuesday, September 15th, does offer a brief glimmer of hope with a glassy 5ft swell, but it’s a small window.

So, to sum it up: Wednesday afternoon, September 2nd, is your best bet for the first week, and Thursday morning, September 10th, is the absolute standout for the whole outlook – that’s the one to get excited about.

Rusty.

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