Toquay Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, we’ve only got one spot firing in this 16-day window, and it’s a bit of a mixed bag, but there’s definitely some serious juice on the way for those who know what they’re doing. The water’s sitting at 57°, which is pretty much bang on normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first real chance to get wet is Tuesday the 21st. Toquay Reef is where it’s at. Early morning, we’ve got some clouds overhead, a light NNW breeze blowing straight offshore at 6 mph, and the swell is a clean 3 ft from the SW. The period is 14 seconds, so that’s proper groundswell, with moderate energy (319). It’s a reef break, so that long period will wrap in nicely. The morning is looking like a glassy little session. The afternoon holds a similar 3 ft SW swell, still offshore, but the energy dips a bit (248). The break is very consistent, which is a bonus, but it can get a crowd sometimes, so get in early.

Wednesday the 22nd is a downgrade. The wind picks up to 12 mph from the WNW in the morning, still offshore, but the swell drops to 2 ft with only 178 energy. It’s surfable, but ordinary. The afternoon sees cross-offshore wind and a little more size at 3 ft, but the conditions are marginal.

Now, hang on to your board because Thursday the 23rd is the standout. The morning brings a huge 12 ft SW swell, with a period of 14 seconds. The combined energy is a massive 7179, which is strong to very strong. The wind is a cross-offshore 16 mph from the W, keeping it clean. This is big, powerful surf. Over 8 ft, so this is strictly for experts. The afternoon stays solid at 10 ft, but the wind is stronger at 19 mph, and the energy is 4906. It’s still clean, but that’s a lot of power.

Friday the 24th is still hefty, but the swell has shifted to the SSW at 8 ft in the morning, with a very long 16-second period and 3392 energy. That long period on a reef is a beautiful thing, but the cross-offshore wind is 12 mph. The afternoon drops to 8 ft, windier at 19 mph, and the energy is 2330.

Saturday the 25th keeps the size up with a 12 ft SW swell in the morning, 12-second period, and 4596 energy. The wind is cross-offshore at 16 mph. The afternoon is 10 ft, still cross-offshore, with 3818 energy. Again, this is all expert territory.

The swell starts to fade from Sunday the 26th onward. Sunday morning is 4 ft, and the energy is down to 444. The wind is cross-offshore. The afternoon is smaller at 4 ft with 284 energy. It’s clean, but nothing special.

The following week is a real mixed bag. Monday the 27th is small, with 2 ft to 3 ft swells and offshore winds, but very low energy. Tuesday the 28th picks up to 7 ft in the afternoon, but with rain showers and a cross-offshore wind. Wednesday the 29th has a 10 ft swell in the morning, but it’s cross-shore wind, and the afternoon turns into a lumpy mess with a fresh cross-onshore. Thursday the 30th is back to a clean 10 ft in the morning, but the energy is 4093, and the wind is cross-offshore. Friday the 31st is smaller, around 6 ft, and clean.

The best of the second week looks like Saturday the 1st of August. The morning has a 5 ft SSW swell, 13-second period, offshore wind from the NW at 9 mph, and moderate energy (1350). The conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers. The afternoon is even better, with a 6 ft SSW swell, a 15-second period, offshore wind at 12 mph, and 1510 energy. That’s a solid, clean, long-period groundswell on a reef. It’s promising, but it’s a week and a half away, so keep an eye on it.

After that, it turns ugly. Sunday the 2nd of August and Monday the 3rd are all poor conditions, with strong onshore winds and messy chop. The rest of the week is tiny, with periods of 18 to 21 seconds on small swells, but the wind is all cross-onshore, ruining any chance of a clean wave. The energy is weak, and the forecast is poor.

So, the standout is absolutely Thursday the 23rd of July. That 12 ft SW swell with a 14-second period and clean cross-offshore wind is the biggest, most powerful day on offer. If you’re an expert, that’s your day. The second best is the Saturday the 1st of August window, with clean offshore winds and a nicely shaped 6 ft SSW groundswell. For the rest, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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