Toquay Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s coming our way.

We’ve got a solid run of surf headed for Toquay Reef, and it kicks off straight away. This is a classic reef set-up, exposed to the SW, so it grabs the groundswell well. The water temp is 56°F, right about normal for the season.

Thursday morning, August 13, we’re into a solid 7ft swell out of the southwest, with a very long period of 16 seconds. That’s proper groundswell, the kind that brings real shape, but at a reef break like this, it’ll be lining up nicely. The combined energy is strong at 2444, so there’s plenty of grunt. Wind is a moderate 12 mph cross-offshore, which is clean. Expect some crowd factor here – it’s a spot that sees people. This one is for the experienced surfers, as that size and period will have some push. The quality holds into the Friday morning, August 14, with a 7ft SW swell, still 16 seconds, and still clean with a gentle cross-off breeze.

The standout of the whole run looks like Saturday morning, August 15. Still a very respectable 6ft SW swell with that long 15-second period, but the wind goes absolutely glassy – barely a breath from the SSE at 3 mph. That’s about as clean as it gets. The energy is still moderate-strong at 1474, so it’s got power, but the surface will be like a mirror. That’s a serious session for the experienced crew.

Sunday the 16th sees the swell drop below 5ft, and the wind swings onshore by the afternoon, so the quality fades. Monday and Tuesday taper off further, with some smaller, cleaner sessions but not much to get excited about. By Wednesday the 19th, the swell is tiny and the conditions are poor.

There’s a dry spell through the middle of the week until Thursday the 20th, when a little bump of SW swell returns – maybe a 3ft wave, but with glassy conditions in the afternoon, it could still be a fun little session for a longboard or a mid-length.

Now, looking further ahead past the one-week mark, there are a couple of promising signals. On Monday, August 24, the swell jumps back up to 5ft from the SW with a 15-second period, and the wind is a fresh 19 mph offshore. That’s punchy and clean, but the offshore is strong, so you’ll want your lineup management to be on point. It’s only a moderate forecast confidence at this range, so keep an eye on it.

Then on Wednesday, August 26, it looks like another pulse could hit, with 7ft to 8ft SW swell. The afternoon gets a bit lumpy with a cross-shore wind, but the morning is cleaner. But the real one to watch is Thursday, August 27 – a 15ft SW groundswell with 16 seconds, and a combined energy of 14406. That is a massive, powerful swell. It’s also pushing strong cross-onshore winds, so the quality will be rough and only for the most experienced, and honestly, it might be more of a tow-in or kiting day than a paddle session at that point.

The 28th of August looks like it cleans up again, with a nice 5ft SSW swell and glassy conditions. That could be a very sweet way to finish the window.

Best of the bunch is Saturday the 15th for absolute perfection, and then the Monday the 24th and Friday the 28th as the longer-range, promising options.

Rusty.

Read more