Tippers Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s be straight – it’s a tough stretch ahead on the whole. This is Tippers, a reef break that’s very consistent and exposed, so it’s got the right bones. It loves swell from the SW, which is what we’ve got incoming. But man, the conditions are just fighting us for most of the window.

The water at Tippers is sitting at a very unusual 75°, a massive 7° warmer than normal. That’s wild for this time of year.

We kick things off on Thursday the 13th but honestly, it’s a write-off. You’ve got a 3 ft SW groundswell with a long 16-second period, giving a moderate combined energy of (424), but the wind is howling onshore from the WSW at 6 mph and the surf is just poor.

Friday the 14th is a bit of a tease. The swell drops to 2 ft but the period stretches to 18 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy. The combined energy jumps to a moderate (583) early. Friday morning is looking clean with light offshore WSW wind 9 mph, but the call is “marginal” due to tide. By afternoon it’s cross-on and choppy. Still, that morning session is the closest we get to a stand-out in the first week.

The rest of that first week through to Sunday the 24th is pretty grim. Swell stays small, mostly 2 ft to 3 ft, with onshore or cross-on winds. The combined energy bounces between weak and moderate (179 to 741), but the quality is consistently poor or marginal. A few mornings show light offshore breezes that look promising, but the wave state always ends up “gentle cross-onshore and fairly choppy” or just “unknown.” There’s no clean ride to be had.

You’ve got a gap of several days here with no real recommendation. It’s flat and messy.

Now, hold on. Tuesday the 25th shows a real flicker of hope. The swell bumps up to 3 ft from the S with a combined energy of (881) – that’s almost a three-digit number, solid moderate energy. The wind turns light offshore from the WSW at 6 mph. Both morning and afternoon are called “marginal” but that’s the best score of the whole outlook. This is the standout. That long-period S swell at a reef like Tippers could line up nicely. It’s still a gamble this far out, but I’d be watching the 25th closely. The wind is clean, the energy is there.

Wednesday the 26th stays similar with 4 ft S swell and 12-second period, and light offshore WSW wind. The combined energy is a moderate (687). Again, it’s labelled marginal but the ingredients are better than anything else we’ve seen.

After that, we fade out. Thursday the 27th and Friday the 28th drop back to poor 3 ft to 3 ft SSW swell with light to gentle cross/offshore breezes, but the quality is gone. Combined energy sinks back under 620.

So to put it simply: the first two and a half weeks are mostly a bust. If you’ve got to paddle out, your absolute best bet is Tuesday the 25th and Wednesday the 26th – that’s where the S groundswell meets clean offshore wind at Tippers. It’s not a world-class day, but it’s the only real window.

- Rusty

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