Tippers Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s be straight with you. The next couple of weeks are looking pretty flat and messy for the most part. We’ve got a lot of small, weak swell and a persistent cross-onshore breeze that’s going to keep things chopped up. It’s not going to be pretty for a while, so temper your expectations.

Looking at Tippers (North Shore), the water is a balmy 76°, which is much warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s a bit of a treat when you do get in the water. The swell energy is generally weak to moderate, with values mostly in the 300-500 range, though it does pick up a bit from the 14th onwards. But even then, the quality just isn’t there.

The entire first week is a write-off. From Friday the 7th through to Thursday the 13th, we’re looking at poor surf conditions, with the swell hovering around 2ft to 3ft. The period is decent, mostly in the 13-19 second range, so there’s some energy in the water, but the winds are all over the place – onshore, cross-onshore – and it’s just going to be lumpy. The wave comment says it all: “poor surf conditions.” It’s not worth paddling out for this. This stretch of flat, poor waves is a solid week or more, so don’t hold your breath.

Now, there is a slight shift from Friday the 14th onwards. The swell picks up a touch, with the height getting closer to 4ft, and the energy jumps up into that moderate 500-700 range. You can see it in the numbers, like on Friday afternoon the 14th when the energy hits 733 (moderate) and Saturday afternoon the 15th at 723 (moderate). The period is still long, dropping from 18 seconds to around 15-16 seconds, which is still good. But here’s the thing – the winds are still cross-onshore, and the forecast is still calling it “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” It’s a step up from terrible, but it’s still not good. It’s going to be juiced up, but messy.

The period from the 20th to the 22nd shows a bit more energy, with Thursday and Saturday seeing 513 and 684 (moderate), respectively. The swell stays around 3ft, with a 16-second period. Saturday the 22nd afternoon looks interesting with a 21-second period and a swell from the SW at 2ft, but it’s still only rated as marginal. The long period is great for a reef like this, but the 5 km/h wind is the only clean window in that entire stretch, and even then, the swell is tiny.

So, here’s the reality check. There are no standout days in this window. Not a single one. The best you can hope for is a slightly less messy, knee-to-waist-high wave from the 14th to the 15th, or on the 22nd, but it won’t be clean. The wind is just going to keep ruining it. For a beginner, the small size is fine, but the onshore wind and chop will make it tough. For everyone else, it’s just frustrating.

If you’re desperate for a paddle, the mornings on the 14th (Friday) or the 22nd (Saturday) are your best bets, but don’t expect much. The wave direction is consistently SSW to SW, which is right in the optimum for Tippers, but it doesn't matter if the wind is all over it.

It’s one of those stretches where you’re better off doing something else. The forecast can change, and it usually does, but as it stands, there’s nothing to get excited about.

Rusty.

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