Tip Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it for Tip Beach. The next 16 days have a bit of a slow start, but there’s some real promise hiding in the back half of the window.

The first several days are pretty disappointing. You’ll see a little bump in the water on Wednesday the 15th, but it’s just not happening. The swell is disorganised, short period at 7 seconds, and the cross-off wind is not doing us any favours. The combined wave energy is weak (107) and the water is a cool 58°, which is about normal for this time of year, so nothing strange there. We’ll call Wednesday and Thursday a write-off – the surf is poor.

Friday morning the 17th looks a little better. A light offshore from the WNW, clean conditions, and a 2ft south swell with a 10 second period. The energy is still low (102), but it’s surfable. It’s just ordinary. The afternoon gets choppy with a cross-on wind, so stick to the morning.

Saturday the 18th turns glassy in the morning, which is a treat. But the swell is only 0.7ft from the south, period way up at 18 seconds. That’s a long period groundswell, but for a beach break like Tip, it’s going to be fat and straight. The energy is very weak (62). It’s a fun paddle if you’re bored, but not a wave worth chasing.

Sunday the 19th is similar – glassy morning, a tiny 2ft south swell at 13 seconds. The energy picks up a little (165), but it’s still small.

Now here’s where it gets interesting. Monday the 20th is the first standout. Morning and afternoon both look good. The swell jumps to 4ft from the ENE with a 10 second period. The wind is light and variable, turning glassy in the afternoon. The combined energy is moderate (453 in the morning, 396 in the afternoon). For a beach break, this is clean, fun, and shoulder-high. The optimum swell direction is SE, so the ENE isn’t a perfect match, but the quality of the forecast makes up for it. Crowds are listed as “sometimes” – so you might have a few out, but it won’t be a pack.

Tuesday the 21st is good again in the morning – 3ft clean ENE swell, manageable energy (232). The afternoon gets a cross-on breeze, so morning is the call.

The middle of the week (22nd and 23rd) drops off again. Small surf, ordinary conditions.

Then we get to the real meat. Saturday the 25th is a stand-out call for the experts. The morning brings a 6ft SSW swell with a 8 second period, and a light offshore wind from the W. The energy is strong (476) and the surf is clean. By the afternoon, it’s up to 7ft (628 energy). This is borderline too big for beginners, but it’s a solid, punchy swell for the experienced crew. The swell direction (SSW) is a better match for the optimum SE direction than the ENE was, but it’s still not a direct hit.

Sunday the 26th stays big, 6ft to 6ft from the S, with a longer period of 11 seconds. The energy is very strong (933 in the morning). The wind is cross-off, which keeps it reasonably clean, but it’s a powerful swell. This is expert territory.

Monday the 27th is the biggest day. The morning sees 7ft from the SSW with a 12 second period – that’s a groundswell with serious punch. The combined energy is very strong (1117). Winds are a moderate cross-off from the WSW. This is a big, powerful, long-period swell. At a beach break like Tip Beach, the long period can make it break a bit straight and dumpy, so it’s not for the faint-hearted. The afternoon stays similar.

The energy drops from Tuesday the 28th onward, but it remains clean and surfable into the 29th, with 3ft to 5ft swells.

So, the best on offer? Monday the 20th is your pick for clean, fun, mid-sized surf without the crowd chaos. If you’re an expert looking for power, Saturday the 25th and Monday the 27th are the ones to circle, but remember, long-range forecasts are a bit less certain. The water temperature is normal for the season, so no surprises there.

Stay safe out there.
Rusty.

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