Su Paulo Su Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your board and let’s look at the next couple of weeks. It’s gonna be a slow burn, but there’s some serious gold hiding at the end of this forecast. We’ve got a long stretch of flat and messy days ahead, so don’t get too excited about the next week. But stick with me, because the payoff looks like it could be worth the wait.

The next few days are pretty grim. We’re looking at a big gap with nothing surfable on offer. From now until the 7th of August, it’s basically a desert out there. A few tiny 0.7ft to 1ft pulses with short, weak periods, but that’s not surf, that’s just a ripple. The wind is mostly cross-off or cross-on, and it’s all just poor surf conditions. You’re better off doing a maintenance session on your gear or watching old clips.

Then we get a slight tease on Friday the 8th. The morning is glassy, calm, but the swell is still weak – about 4ft from the NW with a short 7-second period. The energy is still weak (106), and while it’s surfable, it’s pretty ordinary. The afternoon gets chopped up by a cross-on wind, so you’d want to get out early. It’s just a tease, though. Before you know it, we drop right back down to almost nothing for the next week. From the 9th to the 15th, it’s tiny, weak, and mostly messy. There are a few glassy mornings, but the swell is just not there. You’re looking at ankle-biters, with the energy barely registering (single digits to maybe 45). It’s a long, flat spell, and it feels like the ocean is holding its breath.

Now, here’s where things start to get interesting. On Sunday the 16th, the swell finally starts to show up. The morning brings a clean 5ft from the NW with a period of 8 seconds. The energy is moderate (250), and the wind is light and cross-off. This is the first real, proper surf we’ve seen. Su Paulo Su (Lisbon) is a consistent reef break, exposed to the NW swell. This is the start of the run.

But the real standout is Monday the 17th. This is the one to circle. With the first light, we’re looking at a solid 10ft of NW groundswell, with a period of 9 seconds. The energy is strong, coming in at 1215. The wind is light and cross-off, leaving it clean. This is serious size, though. At 10ft, this isn’t a beginner wave. This is for experienced surfers only. It’s going to be powerful, and a bit of a paddle, but it’s the best conditions on offer during this whole window. The afternoon stays big but gets wonky with a cross-on wind, so go get it early.

The 18th is still solid, with 8ft from the WNW in the morning and clean conditions. It’s a step down from the day before, but still very good. The energy is strong (807), and it should offer some great waves, though the wind will shift onshore in the afternoon and make it messy.

Then, on Wednesday the 19th, another bomb rolls in. We’re looking at a massive 13ft NW swell. The energy is very strong (2894). The morning is glassy with a slight air, which is as good as it gets. This is huge, powerful, and for experts only. It will be a proper session, but you need to know what you’re doing. That’s a lot of water moving.

The main event is Monday the 17th, with that clean 10ft. It’s big and strong, but the combo of size and clean conditions is the best of the bunch. The 19th is bigger, but it's a lot more critical. For the best mix of power and cleanliness, the 17th is your wave. The water temp is about average for this time of year, a little cool, but nothing crazy.

So there you have it. A long flat spell, followed by a serious pulse of winter swell. If you can wait it out, the middle of next week is where it’s at. Be smart, be experienced, and be ready.

Rusty

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