Shelley Beach Surf Break

Lat Long: 33.36° S 151.51° E

Issued: 9 am 07 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Shelley Beach sea temperature is
19.0° C

Slightly warmer than usual

Shelley Beach surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Shelley Beach surf forecast from 7 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Thursday 9 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 10s period, SE swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Tuesday 7 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 11s period, SSE swell with 2,957 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 9 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 10s period with SE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Shelley Beach this week:

The surf forecast for Shelley Beach over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 09) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.2m and 10s period with a secondary swell of 2.0m and 10s. Another secondary swell of 0.5m and 11s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Shelley Beach in the next 16 days are 3.5m 11s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 07) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.7m 3s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 12) at 1PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 4AM (Thu 9th Jul)7ft (2.2m) 10s
Best Surf 4AM (Thu 9th Jul)7ft (2.2m) 10s
Most Powerful 7PM (Tue 7th Jul)11ft (3.5m) 11s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Shelley Beach over the next 16 days.


Updates in  hr  min  s Forecast update imminent

Righto, grab your coffee, I’m Rusty, and I’ve got the goods on what’s coming for Shelley Beach. It’s going to be a bit of a rollercoaster, so listen up.

We kick off Tuesday the 7th of July with a big, angry wall of water – we’re talking an 12 ft SSE swell. The combined energy is massive at 4482, so this is a proper pulse of power, but the problem is the wind. It’s a moderate breeze from the SSW, blowing cross-shore, so expect a messy cross-chop. This is a serious, expert-only sized wave and not ideal for paddling. Honestly, for a standard beachbreak setup in these conditions, you might look more towards a kite than a paddleboard today. The water temp is sitting at 66°, which is about normal for this time of year.

Wednesday the 8th drops a bit to an 8 ft SE swell, but the wind is still an issue, coming from the S at 12 mph as a cross-onshore. It’s choppy and lumpy. The wave energy is still pretty solid at 1671, but the quality is just not there. Thursday the 9th sees the swell back off to 6 ft from the SE, with a light breeze from the SW that’s just cross-shore. The energy drops to 781, and it’s still marginal. You could get a few, but it’s nothing to write home about.

Now, Friday the 10th morning looks a bit better. The swell has dropped to 5 ft from the SE, but the wind goes light and cross-offshore from the WSW. That’s clean! The energy is moderate at 426. This is your first decent window. Saturday the 11th is the standout. Morning sees a 4 ft SE swell with a light offshore from the NW, and it’s clean. The energy is still moderate at 402. The afternoon holds similar: 4 ft SE swell, still offshore from the NW. This is the pick of the whole outlook. Clean, fun-sized waves, and with the swell direction matching the optimal from the southeast, Shelley Beach should have some shape. Keep in mind it’s a consistent spot, but crowds are sometimes a factor here.

After Saturday, the surf goes very quiet. From Sunday the 12th right through to Wednesday the 15th of July, we have a massive gap. The swell drops below 2 ft, with energy readings falling into the weak range (beneath 100). There’s no surf to speak of.

Then on Thursday the 16th of July, a new pulse arrives. A 7 ft S swell with a period of 14 seconds – that’s a long period groundswell. The energy is strong at 1868, but the wind is a moderate breeze from the SW creating a cross-shore chop. The setup looks messy and marginal, and at that size with a long period, Shelley Beach as a beach break will likely close out. Not the best.

Friday the 17th through to the end of the 16-day window on Wednesday the 22nd of July is mostly small and poor. A few mornings show clean conditions with offshores, like the 18th morning and the 22nd morning, but the swell is tiny (under 3 ft) with weak energy. It’s surfable, but just ordinary. The long-range stuff is promising but less certain, so keep an eye on it.

The real highlight? Saturday the 11th of July. That’s your session.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 16mm), heaviest on Thu morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Tue afternoon, min 12°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the S on Tue afternoon, calm by Thu afternoon).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Light rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Fri morning. Very mild (max 18°C on Sat morning, min 10°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light.

Tuesday
7
Wednesday
8
Thursday
9
Friday
10
Saturday
11
Sunday
12
Monday
13
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
!
0
0
1
0
3
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
3.5
SSE
10
3.5
SE
11
3
SE
11
2.5
SE
10
2.3
SE
11
1.9
SSE
10
1.8
SE
10
1.8
SE
10
1.6
SE
9
1.4
SE
9
1.6
SE
10
1.3
SE
10
1.2
SE
9
1.1
SE
9
0.8
ESE
10
0.5
ESE
10
0.4
ESE
9
0.3
ESE
10
0.5
S
7
0.2
S
12
0.3
S
11
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
2311
2586
2453
1418
1146
712
602
554
440
328
441
320
230
164
121
52
33
19
23
11
22
Wind (km/h)
25
SSW
30
S
20
S
20
S
20
SSW
15
SW
10
SW
5
S
10
WSW
10
WSW
10
SSE
10
WNW
10
NW
10
NW
20
WNW
25
WNW
25
W
20
NW
20
WNW
15
WNW
15
WNW
Wind State
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
cross-off
off
off
off
cross-off
cross-off
off
off
cross-off
off
High Tide
1:34PM1.25m
1:18AM1.20m
2:29PM1.33m
2:25AM1.12m
3:27PM1.43m
3:41AM1.07m
4:26PM1.53m
4:57AM1.05m
5:23PM1.64m
6:06AM1.07m
6:19PM1.74m
7:08AM1.11m
7:13PM1.82m
Low Tide
7:29PM0.53m
7:46AM0.24m
8:44PM0.49m
8:39AM0.27m
10:00PM0.41m
9:38AM0.30m
11:11PM0.30m
10:38AM0.30m
00:15AM0.17m
11:38AM0.29m
1:13AM0.06m
12:36PM0.26m
2:06AM-0.02m
light rain
light rain
light rain
rain showers
clear
rain showers
rain showers
cloud
part cloud
rain showers
part cloud
rain showers
clear
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:58
6:56
6:56
6:56
6:56
6:56
6:56
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
4:59
5:00
5:00
5:00
5:00
5:01
5:01
 mm
2
2
4
2
3
3
1
1
Temp °C
15
16
16
16
16
15
13
15
14
15
15
14
18
18
14
16
17
11
18
19
14
Feels °C
9
10
11
12
11
11
12
13
12
13
13
13
15
15
9
9
10
6
13
14
8
Swell 1
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
3
SSE
10
0.1
S
16
3
SE
11
2.5
SE
10
2.3
SE
11
1.9
SSE
10
1.8
SE
10
1.8
SE
10
1.6
SE
9
1.4
SE
9
1.6
SE
10
1.3
SE
10
1.2
SE
9
1.1
SE
9
0.8
ESE
10
0.5
ESE
10
0.4
SSW
6
0.4
SSW
7
0.5
S
7
0.3
SSW
6
0.3
SSW
6
Energy kJ
1814
5
2097
1418
1146
712
602
554
440
328
441
320
230
164
121
52
12
15
23
8
7
Swell 2
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1
SE
14
0.8
ESE
14
1
ESE
13
1.2
ESE
12
0.9
ESE
10
0.4
ESE
10
0.1
S
16
0.6
SE
12
0.1
S
21
0.2
ESE
16
0.7
ESE
13
0.8
ESE
12
0.6
SSE
8
0.4
SSE
8
0.4
ESE
9
0.3
ESE
10
0.2
ESE
9
0.2
ESE
8
0.3
S
11
Energy kJ
357
253
335
365
173
38
5
98
9
25
156
164
48
26
33
19
8
7
22
Swell 3
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.1
S
16
0.1
S
20
0.1
S
18
0.1
S
17
0.1
S
20
0.1
S
14
0.1
S
19
0.3
ESE
9
0.1
S
15
0.1
S
15
0.2
ESE
12
0.3
SE
8
0.1
SE
8
0.2
S
11
0.2
S
12
0.1
SE
8
Energy kJ
5
8
6
6
8
4
7
16
5
4
14
10
2
9
11
2
Wind waves
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
3.5
SSE
10
3.5
SE
11
3
SE
11
0.3
WNW
3
0.4
NW
3
0.6
NW
3
0.5
W
3
0.4
W
3
0.3
WNW
3
0.4
NW
3
0.3
NW
3
0.4
WSW
3
Energy kJ
2311
2586
2453
1
2
8
5
3
2
2
1
2
Nearest Offshore or Glassy
Rating
(10 max)
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
2
2
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Distance (km)
11
41
131
84
11
0
0
11
0
0
11
0
0
0
0
9
9
22
22
128
22
Best forecast wave conditions in Newcastle
Rating
(10 max)
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia
Rating
(10 max)
7
5
5
7
6
5
4
4
5
4
4
3
4
2
5
5
9
9
7
1
5
Header Global
Rating
(10 max)
7
5
7
9
8
9
7
7
6
7
5
5
5
5
5
5
9
9
7
5
6
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
Map placeholder
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Information about the Shelley Beach Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Shelley Beach provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Shelley Beach can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Shelley Beach surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Shelley Beach) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Shelley Beach may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Newcastle? If you are looking for accommodation near Shelley Beach, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Newcastle, consider staying in Central Coast which is 20 km (12 miles) away. Other places in and around Newcastle where you can find information about places to rent, and car hire include Catherine Hill Bay which is 24 km (15 miles) away, Dee Why, Newcastle and Hornsby.

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