Shelley Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s look at what Shelley Beach is serving up for the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, but there’s a real standout window if you time it right.

The first decent surf shows up on Thursday afternoon, July 9th, but it’s not a clean start. We’ve got a 6ft SE swell rolling in with a 10-second period, and the wave energy is moderate (604). The problem is the wind is cross-on from the SSE at 6 mph, so it’s going to be a bit bumpy. The water temp is 66°, which is about 1° warmer than usual for this time of year – nothing crazy, just a touch mild.

If you can wait until Friday morning, July 10th, that’s where the magic happens. The swell drops a touch to 6ft, still from the SE, but the wind swings to a light WSW at 6 mph, turning it cross-offshore. That’s going to clean things up nicely. The energy is still solid at 520. Then Friday afternoon gets even better – the wind drops to almost nothing, just 3 mph from the S, and it’s glassy. The swell is 5ft, period still 10 seconds, and the energy is 543. That’s your best bet for the near future – clean, lined-up waves.

Saturday morning, July 11th, is still worth a look. The swell drops to 4ft from the SE, period drops to 9 seconds, but with a light offshore NW wind at 6 mph, it’ll be clean and fun. The energy is moderate at 367. By Saturday afternoon, the swell gets smaller at 3ft from the ESE, and while the wind is okay, it’s not the same quality.

After that, things go quiet. From Sunday morning, July 12th, through to Wednesday morning, July 15th, the surf drops off hard. The swell gets tiny, the wind gets messy, and the energy drops to weak numbers – down as low as 18. There’s a gap of about 4 days with nothing worth paddling out for.

Then comes the big one, but it’s a warning, not a celebration. From Thursday, July 16th, through to Sunday, July 20th, a massive swell hits. We’re talking 16ft to 18ft from the SSE, with periods around 10 to 12 seconds, and the energy numbers are huge – between 4318 and 9010. This is expert-only territory. The wind is mostly cross-on or messy, except for Saturday morning, July 18th, which is glassy, and Monday morning, July 20th, which has a light offshore NW. But even then, it’s still 18ft to 10ft of swell. That’s a big-wave setup, and for a beach break like Shelley, it’s going to be intense and dangerous. If you’re not a seasoned charger, stay out of the water.

The highlight for the more experienced crew comes on Monday afternoon, July 20th. The swell has dropped to a still-chunky 8ft from the SE, period 11 seconds, and the energy is 1575. The wind is light cross-offshore from the WSW, and it’s clean. That’s the best of the big stuff, and it’s excellent for experienced surfers.

After that, the swell fades again. Tuesday, July 21st, has a 6ft SE swell with a 10-second period, but the wind is a moderate cross-off at 12 mph, so it’s not as clean. The energy is 716. From Wednesday, July 22nd, onwards, the wind picks up hard from the SW and SSW, 16 to 19 mph, and the surf gets lumpy and cross-shore, making it pretty ordinary.

For the absolute best of the whole forecast, I’d pick Friday morning, July 10th, and Friday afternoon, July 10th, as the standouts. Clean, glassy conditions, chest-to-head-high swell, and no crowds to worry about – just you and the ocean. The second week has a couple of promising days for big-wave hunters, but that’s a different story.

Rusty.

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