Shelley Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let’s be honest with you. The next couple of weeks are going to test your patience if you’re chasing waves around here. There’s a whole lot of nothing on the menu for a solid stretch, and then the ocean decides to go from zero to a hundred real quick, but not in a way that does us any favors. We’re in for a long, flat spell before a big pulse of energy shows up, but it looks like it’ll be too much of a raw, unruly beast for our usual haunts.

The first few days are a write-off. We’re looking at tiny, weak slop with poor conditions. The water’s sitting at 64°, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. You can forget about it until at least Thursday the 6th. Even then, we’re only talking about a tiny 2ft bump with a short 8-second period. It’s surfable if you’re desperate, but it’s more about getting wet than getting waves. The wind is glassy in the morning which is a plus, but the energy is just pathetic, with the combined swell energy only hitting 72. It’s a real struggle.

We get a few more of these barely-there pulses through the following days. The mornings are mostly clean with light offshore or cross-offshore breezes, but the swell stays tiny, and the periods are short. There are moments where it looks like it might get a little more interesting, with the swell energy inching up to the 100-130 range, but the wave heights stay stuck around 2ft. It’s all just a lot of paddling for nothing. The wind on Sunday afternoon looks alright, a gentle offshore from the NNW, but again, there’s just no power behind it.

The first real sign of life doesn’t even look like a wave event. On Tuesday the 11th, it goes glassy in the afternoon with a 2ft swell, but it’s still just not doing anything for us. Then the wind machine kicks in. Wednesday the 12th sees strong breezes, with gusts hitting 25 mph in the afternoon, and the surf is back down to a messy 2ft. It’s a good day to stay on land.

Then comes the big one. The models are showing a serious pulse of Southern Hemisphere energy arriving on Thursday the 13th of August. We’re talking a jump to an 12ft swell with a period of 11 seconds, and the combined energy is a massive 2806. It’s a huge, powerful swell. But here’s the catch: it’s way too big for our setup. The swell direction and size make it a mess at this spot, and it’s predicted to be too big for the break. If you’re an expert only, and even then, this looks like it’s going to be a washing machine. The Friday the 14th is still massive at 10ft, but the wind goes onshore, making it completely unsurfable. That big, raw energy is just going to close everything out and turn the ocean into a chaotic, blown-out mess.

After that big pulse, it slowly eases off, but the wind doesn’t do us any favors, staying cross or cross-onshore for the most part. The swell drops from 6ft on Saturday the 15th down to around the 3ft-5ft mark for the final few days. There’s still a lot of energy in the water, but it’s all messy and lumpy. By Monday the 17th, a long-period groundswell of 12 seconds shows up, but it’s with a fresh onshore breeze, and that long period is just going to make it break too straight for the beach. We’re looking at a long stretch of poor conditions.

To be honest, the setup looks a lot more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing once that big swell arrives. There’s plenty of wind and a lot of moving water, but for us on a surfboard, it’s a no-go.

Overall, this is a bleak outlook for the next two weeks. There are no real standouts. The only window where it might have been something was that big swell on the 13th and 14th, but it’s just too much of a good thing, entirely unsurfable for this break.

Rusty.

Read more