Shelley Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, I'm Rusty. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for Shelley Beach over the next couple of weeks.

We're looking at a pretty mixed bag here. The swell's going to be bouncing around, but the wind is the real story – it's going to be a battle for clean conditions for most of the run. The good news is there's a window of opportunity, and it's an absolute beauty.

The best of the lot, and the only real standout in the whole forecast, is Monday the 20th of July. The morning session is what dreams are made of. We've got a solid 6ft of east swell running, with a period of 11 seconds, giving it some real grunt and shape. The combined energy is sitting at 807 (moderate wave energy), which is plenty of push. But the real kicker is that wind – it's glassy, dead calm. That means the surface will be like a mirror, perfect for a dawny. The water temp is about 66°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The Monday afternoon session is still decent with 5ft of east swell, but the wind swings around to a light cross-shore, so it won't be as pristine as the morning. Still, a solid option if you can't get out early.

The run-up to that Monday is a bit of a write-off. Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th are both a mess. Saturday afternoon has 4ft of short-period, weak east swell with a 12 mph onshore wind (combined energy 208 – weak). Sunday is bigger, with 7ft in the morning, but the wind is still onshore and the forecast is marginal. It's not worth paddling out for.

After that Monday gem, things get a bit tricky. Tuesday the 21st is okay in the morning with 4ft of ENE swell and a light cross-offshore breeze (combined energy 403 – moderate). It's clean, but not the same quality. The rest of the week is a downward spiral. Wednesday the 22nd is small, Thursday the 23rd sees a 8ft S swell but with a fresh 19 mph cross-onshore wind, making it lumpy and messy – that's expert territory with the wrong wind. Friday the 24th is a bit better with a 7ft S swell and a cross-offshore wind, but it's still marginal.

The second week is pretty grim. From Saturday the 25th, the swell drops off. We get a few glassy mornings with smaller waves, like Saturday the 25th with 4-4ft S swell, and Sunday the 26th with 3ft. The energy is weak (around 322 and 139). It's surfable, but nothing to get excited about. From the 27th of July right through to the 2nd of August, the swell is tiny – mostly under 3ft – and the wind is all over the shop. The combined energy drops into the double digits (as low as 27), which is weak. The only thing of note is a late pulse on the 31st of July with some rain and a 6ft ESE swell, but the wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-onshore, making it a complete mess. The 1st and 2nd of August are the same story – small, messy, and not worth the drive.

So, mark your calendar for Monday the 20th of July. The early morning glass-off at Shelley Beach is your best bet. After that, it's a long stretch of flat, windy, or just poor conditions.

Rusty.

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