
Surf Forecasts:
Shelley Beach surf forecast from 3 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 10 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 10s period, ENE swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 10 Aug, 4AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 10s period, ENE swell with 210 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 6 Aug, 4AM (local time) - 1.5ft (0.4m), 11s period with SSE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Shelley Beach this week:
The surf forecast for Shelley Beach over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 06) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.4m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 5s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Shelley Beach in the next 16 days are 1.1m 10s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 10) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.8m 4s period and expected on Sunday (Aug 09) at 4AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Thu 6th Aug) | 1.5ft (0.4m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Mon 10th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 10s |
| Most Powerful | 4AM (Mon 10th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 10s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Shelley Beach over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Right, let’s be honest with you. The next couple of weeks are going to test your patience if you’re chasing waves around here. There’s a whole lot of nothing on the menu for a solid stretch, and then the ocean decides to go from zero to a hundred real quick, but not in a way that does us any favors. We’re in for a long, flat spell before a big pulse of energy shows up, but it looks like it’ll be too much of a raw, unruly beast for our usual haunts.
The first few days are a write-off. We’re looking at tiny, weak slop with poor conditions. The water’s sitting at 64°, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. You can forget about it until at least Thursday the 6th. Even then, we’re only talking about a tiny 2ft bump with a short 8-second period. It’s surfable if you’re desperate, but it’s more about getting wet than getting waves. The wind is glassy in the morning which is a plus, but the energy is just pathetic, with the combined swell energy only hitting 72. It’s a real struggle.
We get a few more of these barely-there pulses through the following days. The mornings are mostly clean with light offshore or cross-offshore breezes, but the swell stays tiny, and the periods are short. There are moments where it looks like it might get a little more interesting, with the swell energy inching up to the 100-130 range, but the wave heights stay stuck around 2ft. It’s all just a lot of paddling for nothing. The wind on Sunday afternoon looks alright, a gentle offshore from the NNW, but again, there’s just no power behind it.
The first real sign of life doesn’t even look like a wave event. On Tuesday the 11th, it goes glassy in the afternoon with a 2ft swell, but it’s still just not doing anything for us. Then the wind machine kicks in. Wednesday the 12th sees strong breezes, with gusts hitting 25 mph in the afternoon, and the surf is back down to a messy 2ft. It’s a good day to stay on land.
Then comes the big one. The models are showing a serious pulse of Southern Hemisphere energy arriving on Thursday the 13th of August. We’re talking a jump to an 12ft swell with a period of 11 seconds, and the combined energy is a massive 2806. It’s a huge, powerful swell. But here’s the catch: it’s way too big for our setup. The swell direction and size make it a mess at this spot, and it’s predicted to be too big for the break. If you’re an expert only, and even then, this looks like it’s going to be a washing machine. The Friday the 14th is still massive at 10ft, but the wind goes onshore, making it completely unsurfable. That big, raw energy is just going to close everything out and turn the ocean into a chaotic, blown-out mess.
After that big pulse, it slowly eases off, but the wind doesn’t do us any favors, staying cross or cross-onshore for the most part. The swell drops from 6ft on Saturday the 15th down to around the 3ft-5ft mark for the final few days. There’s still a lot of energy in the water, but it’s all messy and lumpy. By Monday the 17th, a long-period groundswell of 12 seconds shows up, but it’s with a fresh onshore breeze, and that long period is just going to make it break too straight for the beach. We’re looking at a long stretch of poor conditions.
To be honest, the setup looks a lot more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing once that big swell arrives. There’s plenty of wind and a lot of moving water, but for us on a surfboard, it’s a no-go.
Overall, this is a bleak outlook for the next two weeks. There are no real standouts. The only window where it might have been something was that big swell on the 13th and 14th, but it’s just too much of a good thing, entirely unsurfable for this break.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 16°C on Tue morning, min 9°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 19°C on Sun morning, min 10°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | Saturday 8 | Sunday 9 | Monday 10 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 10 | ESE 7 | SSW 5 | E 10 | E 9 | SSE 12 | S 8 | S 8 | SSE 10 | S 9 | SSE 9 | ENE 10 | S 8 | S 8 | SSE 9 | ENE 9 | ENE 9 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 9 | S 9 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
25 | 15 | 9 | 31 | 27 | 27 | 51 | 84 | 38 | 55 | 86 | 35 | 44 | 40 | 25 | 84 | 110 | 197 | 132 | 100 | 99 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | on | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 12:01PM1.32m | 11:57PM1.24m | 12:52PM1.35m | 00:56AM1.12m | 1:51PM1.39m | 2:10AM1.03m | 2:58PM1.44m | 3:35AM0.98m | 4:06PM1.52m | 4:56AM1.00m | 5:11PM1.61m | 6:03AM1.06m | 6:09PM1.71m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 6:03PM0.43m | 6:16AM0.25m | 7:10PM0.45m | 7:05AM0.31m | 8:28PM0.44m | 8:05AM0.36m | 9:50PM0.38m | 9:15AM0.39m | 11:05PM0.28m | 10:25AM0.38m | 00:08AM0.16m | 11:31AM0.33m | 1:02AM0.07m | ||||||||
6:43 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — | 6:39 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | |
— | 5:15 | — | — | 5:16 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:17 | — | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 16 | 16 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 19 | 19 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 13 |
Feels °C | 13 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 5 | SSW 5 | SSW 5 | E 10 | E 9 | SSW 5 | S 8 | S 8 | S 7 | S 9 | SSE 9 | S 8 | S 8 | S 8 | S 7 | ENE 9 | ENE 9 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 9 | S 9 |
5 | 6 | 9 | 31 | 27 | 4 | 51 | 84 | 25 | 55 | 86 | 35 | 44 | 40 | 16 | 84 | 110 | 197 | 132 | 100 | 99 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 7 | SSE 10 | E 8 | SSW 5 | SSW 5 | E 8 | SSW 5 | E 9 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | E 10 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | SSE 8 | SSE 7 | S 7 | SSW 6 | SSW 7 | ENE 9 |
10 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 15 | 38 | 55 | 18 | 34 | 43 | 30 | 25 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 94 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 10 | E 9 | E 7 | SE 12 | S 6 | SSE 12 | E 10 | NE 8 | S 9 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | ENE 10 | ENE 7 | ENE 7 | E 8 | E 14 | E 15 | S 13 | SW 4 | S 13 | E 13 |
25 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 27 | 16 | 2 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | ESE 7 | W 3 | W 3 | — | WSW 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NE 4 | NNE 4 | NNE 4 | W 4 | W 3 | — | W 2 |
— | 15 | 1 | 1 | — | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 4 | — | 1 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 9 | 536 | 95 | 8 | 52 | 9 | 0 | 63 | 0 | 0 | 166 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Newcastle | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Shelley Beach Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Shelley Beach provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Shelley Beach can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Shelley Beach surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Shelley Beach) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Shelley Beach may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Newcastle? If you are looking for accommodation near Shelley Beach, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Newcastle, consider staying in Central Coast which is 20 km (12 miles) away. Other places in and around Newcastle where you can find information about places to rent, and car hire include Catherine Hill Bay which is 24 km (15 miles) away, Dee Why, Newcastle and Hornsby.











