Shelley Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. The next couple of weeks at Shelley Beach are a mixed bag—there’s some solid swell on the way, but the wind is going to be a real pain most of the time. The real standout will be a short, clean window early next week, but even then, it’s not going to be epic. Let’s break it down.

We’re starting off with a bit of a dud for the first few days. Tuesday the 8th sees a 8ft SSE swell with a 9-second period, but the wind is a cross-onshore from the south at 16 mph, making for poor, choppy conditions. The water temp is about average for the time of year at 66°. The afternoon stays messy with a 7ft SSE swell and onshore wind. Wednesday the 9th is a write-off—strong cross-onshore winds up to 25 mph are going to tear up a 8ft south swell, so forget it. Thursday the 10th has some size (8ft S swell, 9-second period) but the wind is still cross-shore and the combined energy is strong (1398), but conditions are marginal at best.

Friday the 11th and Saturday the 12th morning finally show a glimmer of hope. Saturday morning the 12th is the pick of the first week: a 5ft SSE swell, 9-second period, with glassy, offshore conditions from the northeast at just 3 mph. The combined energy is moderate (398), and the waves should be clean and rideable. The south-east swell direction is coming from the optimum direction for Shelley Beach, which is a bonus. Expect crowds though, as it’s a consistent spot that can get busy. The water temp anomaly is only 0.9°F above normal, so about average for this time of year.

After that, the swell drops off fast. Sunday the 13th and Monday the 14th are small and messy, with Sunday hitting just 3ft under a fresh cross-shore breeze. The long period (12-second) swell on Monday morning the 14th means decent shape, but it’s tiny at 2ft, so only the cleanest offshore conditions from the NNW make it barely surfable.

From Tuesday the 15th through to the end of the second week, it’s mostly small, choppy, and not worth paddling out for. There’s a late rally on Saturday the 20th morning with a 4ft S swell, 8-second period, and glassy conditions—that’s a clean, small window—but it’s short-lived. The combined energy is weak (208). Monday the 23rd morning offers a tiny 2ft S swell with a 11-second period and clean offshore NW wind, but it’s barely surfable.

Honestly, the best bet in the whole 16-day window is Saturday morning, September 12th. It’s not huge, but the glassy conditions with a 5ft SSE swell from the right direction will make for the most enjoyable session. For the rest of it, the wind is just too messy, and the swell is either too small or too blown out to get excited about. If you’re a kite surfer, the strong winds and choppy surf on days like Wednesday the 9th or Thursday the 10th might be more interesting than paddle surfing.

Rusty.

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