Shelley Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, I'm Rusty, and I'm looking at the forecast for Shelley Beach. The coming 16 days start off pretty grim, I'm not gonna lie. The first actual surf window that's worth paddling out for doesn't show up until the morning of Monday the 21st. Before that, it's a solid week of onshore slop, chop, or just plain poor conditions. The water temp is sitting at 65°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Alright, let's take it from the top. The first real flicker of hope comes on Monday the 21st of July. There's a clean morning session with a 5ft swell from the ENE, period around 10 seconds. The wind is a light cross-offshore from the NNW, which is a major positive. The combined energy is moderate (440), and it's clean, so you'll get some lined-up waves. By the afternoon, the wind swings around and ruins it, so get out early.

If you miss that, keep your eyes on Wednesday the 23rd. The morning is a bit cross, but the real standout is the afternoon session. It's glassy as a mirror with a light easterly breeze, and the swell is 3ft from the ENE with a period of 9 seconds. The combined energy is weak (136), but the conditions are glassy and surfable. It's a classic small-board day, not a world-beater, but clean.

Then, we have a dry spell again until the morning of Saturday the 26th of July. The swell is tiny, 1ft, but the wind is a clean cross-off from the WNW and the combined energy is very weak (94). It's more of a longboard wave if you're desperate.

Looking further ahead to the 27th of July, Monday morning, there's a clean little bump of 1ft swell from the SSE with a very long period of 17 seconds. The combined energy is moderate (206), and the wind is a clean cross-off from the WSW. This is a groundswell with serious period, but it's tiny. It'll be best at a point or reef, but Shelley is a beach break, so it'll likely be a bit too straight for a good wall.

The best session on offer, and the one I'm genuinely excited about, is the morning of Thursday the 30th of July. We've got a solid 6ft of swell from the S with a period of 11 seconds. The combined energy is strong (766), and the wind is a clean offshore from the WNW. This is a proper setup – clean, lined-up, and with some push. This is the one to circle on the calendar. It's a bit far out, so keep an eye on it, but it looks promising. For the skilled crew, it'll be a cracker.

Overall, if you're a beginner, stay out of the water when the swell is over 5ft, and definitely avoid the 8ft days on the 15th and 28th of July, which are for experts only. The setup on the 30th will be too big for a learner. For everyone else, paddle out on the 21st morning, the 23rd afternoon, and absolutely don't miss the 30th morning.

Rusty.

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