Surf Forecasts:
Shelley Beach surf forecast from 14 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 16 Sep, 7AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 9s period, S swell with cross-shore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 17 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 11s period, S swell with 3,018 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 15 Sep, 1AM (local time) - 4.5ft (1.4m), 6s period with NE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Shelley Beach this week:
The surf forecast for Shelley Beach over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 15) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.4m and 6s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 6s. Another secondary swell of 0.4m and 10s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Shelley Beach in the next 16 days are 3.5m 11s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 17) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.3m 5s period and expected on Sunday (Sep 20) at 7PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1AM (Tue 15th Sep) | 4.5ft (1.4m) 6s |
| Best Surf | 7AM (Wed 16th Sep) | 10ft (3.0m) 9s |
| Most Powerful | 4AM (Thu 17th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 11s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Shelley Beach over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let’s talk in feet and miles. Rusty here.
Overall, the 16-day window at Shelley Beach has some highlights but a lot of flat or messy water. The pattern is: one big pulse mid-week that’s too big for most, then a tiny glassy window, then a long, sad stretch of junk.
Monday the 14th kicks off with a weak 2ft south-swell, period a decent 11 seconds. The morning looks clean with a light 6 mph offshore breeze, but afternoon the wind swings onshore and picks up to 15 mph cross, ruining it. Water temp is 64°, about normal.
Tuesday the 15th is a skip. Swell bottoming out at 2ft from the north-east, period only 7 seconds. Onshore wind. No thanks.
Now, Wednesday the 16th: a big south swell hits 10ft with a 10-second period. The energy is massive (1705), but it’s too big for Shelley Beach. The wind is a fresh 22 mph cross-shore, making it lumpy. Experts only, if anyone. Same deal Thursday the 17th, still 10ft and huge energy (3058), but the wind drops a bit. Still, only for the brave.
Friday the 18th, swell drops to a more manageable 5ft from the south-southeast. Morning is the pick with a 3 mph nor-easter, almost glass. Clean and rideable for intermediate crew.
Here’s the true standout: Saturday morning, September 19th. Swell is down to 3ft from the south, but the wind is glass – a light 3 mph west. Dead calm. That tiny swell will be clean as a whistle. Perfect for a longboard or a fun session. It’s small, but it’s the best condition by far.
From Sunday the 20th onward, it’s a long run of poor, small surf and onshore winds. There’s a faint hope on Tuesday the 22nd with a 4ft south-swell and a long 13-second period carrying some punch (1104), but the wind is cross from the north-east at 9 mph, making it marginal. After that, from the 25th to the 29th, it’s all light rain and onshore wind between 12 and 18 mph. Nothing to get excited about.
Best bets: for a clean, easy surf, that Saturday morning glass-off is your window. For the big stuff, Wednesday or Thursday morning (Sep 16–17) is for experts only, and it’s going to be lumpy.
Crowds can happen on clean days, but with this forecast, it shouldn’t be too hectic.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastSome drizzle, heaviest during Tue night. Warm (max 24°C on Mon morning, min 9°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NW on Mon night, strong winds from the S by Wed afternoon). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 24°C on Sat morning, min 11°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | Sunday 20 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 11 | S 11 | NE 6 | NE 7 | NE 7 | SSE 8 | S 10 | S 10 | S 11 | S 10 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 8 | SSE 9 | SSE 21 | SSE 18 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 89 | 83 | 156 | 46 | 21 | 792 | 1677 | 2196 | 2526 | 1732 | 721 | 413 | 326 | 276 | 165 | 101 | 73 | 36 | 26 | 42 | 65 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross | cross-off | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | on | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | off | cross-off | cross | off |
High Tide | 10:13PM1.25m | 10:34AM1.46m | 10:54PM1.12m | 11:13AM1.40m | 11:39PM1.01m | 11:59AM1.34m | 00:34AM0.92m | 12:55PM1.27m | 1:48AM0.86m | 2:04PM1.24m | 3:16AM0.87m | 3:16PM1.25m | |||||||||
Low Tide | 4:15PM0.24m | 4:10AM0.28m | 5:01PM0.31m | 4:42AM0.37m | 5:51PM0.39m | 5:18AM0.46m | 6:50PM0.46m | 6:02AM0.54m | 8:03PM0.50m | 7:03AM0.59m | 9:21PM0.50m | 8:23AM0.62m | 10:27PM0.45m | ||||||||
 | |  | |  |  | | |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | 5:54 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:48 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — |
 | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 24 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 17 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 24 | 23 | 20 | 26 | 25 | 26 |
Feels °C | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 21 | 23 | 22 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 6 | S 11 | ENE 6 | NE 7 | NE 7 | NE 7 | NE 14 | ENE 12 | NE 13 | S 10 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 8 | SSE 9 | SSE 8 | NE 5 |
| kJ | 31 | 83 | 69 | 46 | 21 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 7 | 1320 | 721 | 413 | 326 | 276 | 165 | 101 | 73 | 36 | 26 | 14 | 13 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 11 | E 13 | SSE 10 | S 10 | S 9 | E 14 | ENE 14 | — | — | E 13 | S 19 | E 13 | SSE 18 | SSE 18 | SSE 17 | SSE 17 | SSE 16 | ENE 3 | — | SSE 21 | SSE 18 |
| kJ | 89 | 12 | 33 | 29 | 14 | 4 | 20 | — | — | 3 | 7 | 3 | 32 | 61 | 93 | 96 | 53 | 2 | — | 42 | 65 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 13 | E 10 | E 12 | E 13 | E 13 | S 16 | — | — | — | E 13 | E 13 | S 19 | E 12 | E 12 | NE 4 | NE 4 | E 12 | S 16 | S 18 | E 9 | S 11 |
| kJ | 13 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | — | — | — | 3 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 6 | NE 5 | NE 6 | — | SE 4 | SSE 8 | S 10 | S 10 | S 11 | S 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ENE 3 | — | — | NE 3 | NW 2 |
| kJ | 80 | 57 | 156 | — | 11 | 792 | 1677 | 2196 | 2526 | 1732 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | 5 | 1 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 219 | 0 | 11 | 1350 | 158 | 791 | 777 | 125 | 11 | 46 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 81 | 0 | 19 | 91 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Newcastle | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Shelley Beach Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Shelley Beach provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Shelley Beach can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Shelley Beach surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Shelley Beach) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Shelley Beach may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Newcastle? If you are looking for accommodation near Shelley Beach, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Newcastle, consider staying in Central Coast which is 20 km (12 miles) away. Other places in and around Newcastle where you can find information about places to rent, and car hire include Catherine Hill Bay which is 24 km (15 miles) away, Dee Why, Newcastle and Hornsby.
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