Shelley Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I’ve got the scoop on what’s coming to Shelley Beach over the next couple of weeks. Let’s cut through the noise and talk about where you want to be and when.

The forecast starts with a bit of a slow cooker. The first few days of the outlook are pretty ordinary. We’ve got some small, weak swell around, but nothing that’s going to get the blood pumping. The water temp is sitting at 64°, which is just about bang on average for this time of year – nothing weird going on there.

Come Tuesday, September 1st, we finally see a little glimmer. The morning session looks clean, with a light north-northwest wind giving us a cross-off breeze. The swell is small, 3ft out of the south, but the period stretches to 11 seconds, which is a nice long groundswell. The energy is moderate (221). It’s not a standout, but it’s the first decent chance to get a wet suit on.

Wednesday the 2nd is a similar story. Morning offshore winds from the northwest, clean 2ft south swell, but the energy is weak (116). It’s surfable, but very ordinary.

Now, let’s talk about the real event. The week of September 9th is a monster. The swell absolutely explodes. On Wednesday the 9th, we’re looking at a massive 16ft south swell with a long 11-second period. The combined energy is a staggering 5352 – that’s serious, heavy water. The wind is light and variable, but it’s onshore. The problem is, this is way too big for Shelley Beach. This is expert-only, and even then, it’s going to be a washing machine. For the average punter, this is a stay-on-the-beach-and-watch day. The same goes for Thursday the 10th with 13ft and 12ft swells. This setup is more interesting for the kite surfers than paddle surfing.

After that big pulse, the swell drops back, but we get a clean-up. Friday, September 11th, is the standout in the 16-day window. The morning is glassy – flat calm, not a breath of wind. The swell is a solid 6ft from the east, with a 9-second period. The energy is strong (846). This is going to be clean, well-shaped, and not too big for a confident intermediate. The wind is glassy, so expect some proper smooth faces. This is your morning.

After that, the energy tails off. Saturday the 12th and Sunday the 13th see the swell drop to 5ft and 4ft, but the wind turns cross or cross-onshore, chopping things up. The crowd factor at Shelley Beach is “sometimes” busy, so on that Friday morning, you might have a few mates out, but it’ll be worth it.

The final days of the outlook, from the 14th onwards, are a write-off. Tiny, weak swell, onshore winds, and rain showers. A real blank run to finish off the forecast.

So, to boil it down: the best bet is the morning of Friday, September 11th. Glassy, 6ft east swell, clean. Get on it. The big stuff from the 9th is for the brave or the kite crew. The rest is just filler.

Rusty.

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