Shelley Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The next 16 days are a real mixed bag and, honestly, not a lot to get excited about for a while. The first week is mostly a write-off, but there’s a potential window in the second week that could be worth watching.

Right now, Shelley Beach is flat, or close to it. We’ve got a little 2 ft (0.5m) ESE swell this afternoon, but it’s bumpy with a 15 mph cross-offshore wind from the west, and the wave energy is weak (66). It’s not even worth paddling out for. The water temp is sitting at 66°, which is about average for this time of year.

Monday and Tuesday are even smaller. We’re talking 0.7 ft to 1.0 ft (0.2m to 0.3m) swells with light offshore winds, but the energy is next to nothing (21-14). It’s just flat. Wednesday and Thursday the 15th and 16th see a proper pulse of S and SSE swell, but it’s completely blown out. Wednesday morning has 6 ft (1.9m) of southerly swell at 8 seconds, but with a 19 mph cross-shore wind, it’s a messy, lumpy mess (403 energy). That afternoon, it jumps up to 12 ft (3.5m) (10 seconds) and 2299 energy, but the wind is still howling. That’s too big for this spot anyway, and it’s raw. Thursday is onshore and rainy, with 8 ft (2.3m) – not good. Friday and Saturday the 18th and 19th are the same story: big, raw, and onshore. Saturday afternoon sees 10 ft (3.0m) (10 seconds) with 1835 energy, and the wind is easing, but it’s just too big and onshore. The swell is predicted to be too big for this break. That’s a kite-surfing setup, not a paddle-in one.

The best chance comes in the second week. Monday the 21st of July morning is the standout. The wind swings light and offshore from the WNW (6 mph) and we’ve got 6 ft (1.8m) of E swell at 10 seconds. That’s a moderate energy level (707) and it’s clean. The period is solid, but it’s an east swell, so at Shelley Beach, it might be a bit close-outy on the beach. It’s still the best on offer. After that, Tuesday and Wednesday the 22nd and 23rd drop back to 5 ft to 5 ft (1.5m to 1.4m), and the wind is more cross or cross-on, so it’s not as good.

Thursday the 24th of July morning has a little 3 ft (0.9m) ESE swell (11 seconds) with a light cross-offshore breeze, and it’s clean. Energy is moderate (333). That’s a nice little window if you’re not fussy. Friday the 25th is tiny, but Thursday afternoon the 24th goes glassy with 3 ft (0.8m) of ESE swell and 246 energy. That’s the cleanest, most fun little wave of the whole run. Perfect for a longboard or a fish.

The end of the run (26th-27th) is back to flat, with 1 ft to 1.0 ft (0.4m to 0.3m) swells and very weak energy (55-28). Not worth a wet suit.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a bust. The swell is either too small, too big, or too windy. The best bet is the morning of Monday the 21st of July for size (6 ft) and clean conditions, or the glassy afternoon of Thursday the 24th of July for a fun, clean little wave. It’s a patchy forecast, but you’ll get a couple of sessions in if you’re patient.

Rusty.

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