Shelley Beach Surf Break

Lat Long: 33.36° S 151.51° E

Issued: 9 am 04 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Shelley Beach sea temperature is
19.5° C

1.0°C warmer than normal for this time of year

Shelley Beach surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Shelley Beach surf forecast from 4 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Tuesday 7 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 10s period, SSE swell with cross-shore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Sunday 5 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 13s period, SSE swell with 2,862 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 4 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 9s period with S swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Shelley Beach this week:

The surf forecast for Shelley Beach over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 04) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.0m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.2m and 7s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Shelley Beach in the next 16 days are 3.0m 13s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 05) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7PM (Sat 4th Jul)3.5ft (1.0m) 9s
Best Surf 4AM (Tue 7th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 10s
Most Powerful 7PM (Sun 5th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 13s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Shelley Beach over the next 16 days.


Updates in  hr  min  s Forecast update imminent

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s get into it.

We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag coming up at Shelley Beach. Right now, the first thing worth talking about is Saturday morning, July 4th. It’s not a huge swell, but it’s a clean start with a 4ft swell coming from the S, period at 11 seconds – that’s a nice groundswell. The wind is light and offshore from the WNW at 3 mph, so the surface will be clean. Combined energy is sitting at 367 (moderate), and the water temp is 67°, about a degree and a half warmer than average, so it’s a touch of a warm little anomaly. For an early July session, that’s pleasant. Crowds can be a problem here sometimes, so getting in early is a good call. The offshore wind will keep things tidy.

By Saturday afternoon though, the wind swings onshore from the ESE at 6 mph, and the quality drops right off.

Sunday through Wednesday is a write-off for paddle surfing. Sunday sees a big 10ft S swell (2034 combined energy) but with a 19 mph SSW cross-onshore wind and rain – lumpy, messy, no good. Monday and Tuesday are similar – big swell, but onshore and cross-onshore winds, rain, and chop. The swell is over 8ft through those days, so even if the wind turned, it’d be expert-only territory. Not the sort of thing you’d want to push a beginner into.

There’s a blip on Tuesday morning, July 7th with a 10ft SSE swell (2979 combined energy) and cross-shore wind, but the guidance says the swell is too big for this break. Too much juice for Shelley Beach.

Wednesday morning, July 8th, same story – 10ft, cross-shore, but too big.

It’s not until Friday morning, July 10th that things start to look a bit more realistic. The swell drops to 7ft from the SSE (1089 combined energy) with a 9 mph SW cross-shore wind – marginal, but it’s getting there. Not a standout, just a glimmer.

Then Saturday, July 11th is the real highlight of the whole outlook. Morning and afternoon both have 5ft to 5ft swell from the SE, with an 11-second period, and light offshore wind from the WNW at 6 mph in the morning, then from the NNW in the afternoon. Clean conditions all day. The combined energy is moderate (around 349-429). That’s the one to aim for. Keep an eye on the crowds though – Shelley Beach can get busy when it’s clean.

After that, it fades into small stuff and poor wind through the middle of the month. Saturday, July 18th afternoon pops up with a 8ft S swell (1148 combined energy) and clean cross-offshore wind – that’s good for experienced surfers only, but the shape could be fun if you’ve got the skills. Then Sunday, July 19th brings a 15ft S swell – massive, with over 5000 combined energy – but the guidance says it’s too big for this break. That’s kite territory.

Overall, the best on offer is Saturday morning July 11th for clean, manageable waves. If you can get out there, do it. Otherwise, the rest of the window is either blown out, too big, or too small.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 14mm), heaviest on Sat night. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon morning, min 12°C on Sat morning). Winds increasing (calm on Sat afternoon, fresh winds from the SSE by Sun afternoon).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Heavy rain (total 21mm), heaviest during Tue night. Very mild (max 15°C on Tue afternoon, min 12°C on Wed night). Mainly fresh winds.

Saturday
4
Sunday
5
Monday
6
Tuesday
7
Wednesday
8
Thursday
9
Friday
10
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
2
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
!
0
0
!
0
!
1
0
2
3
2
3
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.2
S
11
1
S
9
0.9
S
9
3
S
11
2.5
S
10
3
SSE
11
2.5
SSE
10
2.4
SSE
10
2.5
SSE
10
3
SSE
10
3
SSE
11
3
SE
11
3
SSE
11
3
SSE
10
3
SSE
10
2.2
SSE
10
2.1
SSE
10
2.1
SSE
10
2.2
SSE
11
2
SSE
11
1.7
SE
10
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
354
166
119
2018
1461
1780
1125
1077
1163
1673
2265
2090
1862
1561
1514
970
868
815
1082
903
580
Wind (km/h)
5
WNW
10
ESE
10
WSW
30
SSW
30
S
25
SSE
20
SSE
25
S
25
SSW
25
SW
25
SSW
25
SSW
30
SW
25
SSW
20
SW
20
SW
20
S
10
SW
15
SW
5
E
10
WNW
Wind State
off
on
cross-off
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross-on
cross
cross
cross-on
cross
cross
cross-on
off
High Tide
11:11AM1.10m
10:55PM1.46m
11:55AM1.14m
11:35PM1.38m
12:42PM1.19m
00:21AM1.30m
1:34PM1.25m
1:18AM1.20m
2:29PM1.33m
2:25AM1.12m
3:27PM1.43m
3:41AM1.07m
4:26PM1.53m
Low Tide
4:36PM0.46m
5:41AM0.19m
5:25PM0.50m
6:18AM0.20m
6:23PM0.52m
6:59AM0.22m
7:29PM0.53m
7:46AM0.24m
8:44PM0.49m
8:39AM0.27m
10:00PM0.41m
9:38AM0.30m
11:11PM0.30m
clear
clear
rain showers
light rain
light rain
rain showers
light rain
light rain
rain showers
light rain
light rain
mod rain
part cloud
part cloud
rain showers
part cloud
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
light rain
rain showers
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:58
6:58
6:58
6:58
6:56
6:56
6:56
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
4:58
4:58
4:59
4:59
5:00
5:00
5:00
 mm
1
1
2
4
2
2
2
2
2
7
1
3
6
2
3
2
Temp °C
15
15
15
14
15
15
16
15
15
14
15
15
14
15
15
15
15
14
13
15
14
Feels °C
13
13
13
7
8
9
11
10
10
10
11
10
9
10
10
11
12
12
11
13
12
Swell 1
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
1.2
S
11
1
S
9
0.9
S
9
0.3
E
8
0.9
SSE
16
0.2
E
13
0.1
E
14
0.1
E
13
0.2
E
13
2.5
SSE
10
3
SSE
10
3
SE
11
0.6
ESE
15
2.5
SSE
10
2.5
SE
10
2.2
SSE
10
2.1
SSE
10
2.1
SSE
10
2.2
SSE
11
2
SSE
11
1.7
SE
10
Energy kJ
354
166
119
11
441
13
4
4
14
1306
1803
1768
142
1216
1274
970
868
815
1082
903
580
Swell 2
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.3
ENE
7
0.2
ENE
7
0.6
S
12
0.2
ENE
7
0.3
E
8
0.2
E
13
0.1
E
16
0.6
ESE
14
0.9
ESE
13
0.6
ESE
11
0.4
ESE
10
0.6
SE
14
0.1
S
19
0.1
S
20
0.1
S
21
Energy kJ
11
5
97
5
11
14
5
140
277
97
38
169
7
8
8
Swell 3
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.1
E
11
0.2
E
12
0.2
ENE
7
0.1
NE
7
0.1
S
18
0.1
S
21
0.1
S
21
Energy kJ
2
12
5
2
6
9
8
Wind waves
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
3
S
11
2.5
S
10
3
SSE
11
2.5
SSE
10
2.4
SSE
10
2.5
SSE
10
3
SSE
10
3
SSE
11
3
SE
11
3
SSE
11
3
SSE
10
3
SSE
10
Energy kJ
2018
1461
1780
1125
1077
1163
1673
2265
2090
1862
1561
1514
Nearest Offshore or Glassy
Rating
(10 max)
2
2
2
4
4
5
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
2
Distance (km)
0
11
0
125
296
296
228
166
11
11
11
11
35
41
11
11
11
0
0
9
0
Best forecast wave conditions in Newcastle
Rating
(10 max)
2
2
2
4
4
4
4
1
4
4
3
4
4
3
3
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia
Rating
(10 max)
5
5
4
5
9
7
4
4
8
7
4
5
7
8
5
4
4
5
4
4
4
Header Global
Rating
(10 max)
7
5
5
5
9
7
7
5
8
7
5
6
9
8
9
8
5
5
5
4
9
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Shelley Beach Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Shelley Beach provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Shelley Beach can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Shelley Beach surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Shelley Beach) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Shelley Beach may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Newcastle? If you are looking for accommodation near Shelley Beach, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Newcastle, consider staying in Central Coast which is 20 km (12 miles) away. Other places in and around Newcastle where you can find information about places to rent, and car hire include Catherine Hill Bay which is 24 km (15 miles) away, Dee Why, Newcastle and Hornsby.

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