Shelley Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next couple of weeks at Shelley Beach are going to test your patience more than your paddle. There’s a long stretch of marginal to poor conditions ahead, but if you’re willing to wait, there’s one morning that could make it all worthwhile.

Right off the bat, Sunday the 16th, it’s a write-off. We’ve got onshore SE winds at 9 mph with rain showers, and the swell is just a short-period, messy 5ft. That’s not surf, that’s a washing machine. The wave energy is moderate at best (261), but it’s all for nothing with that wind. Monday and Tuesday follow suit with light cross-onshore breezes and small, weak swell – nothing to get excited about.

Wednesday the 19th morning is our first real glimmer of hope. The wind drops out to almost nothing, leaving it glassy, and we’ve got a clean 3ft of ESE swell. It’s not big, but it’s clean, and that’s a huge plus. The energy is moderate (204), but it’s a short-period swell, so it might be a bit soft. Still, for a dawn session on a board with some float, it could be fun.

After that, the week goes a bit pear-shaped. The swell drops off, the winds get messy, and we’re looking at a whole lot of nothing. We’re talking a solid stretch of poor conditions from Thursday the 20th through to the following Wednesday the 27th. The swell gets small, the wind is all over the shop – cross-shore, cross-on, and on Thursday the 27th, we get a fresh onshore blow with rain. The wave energy is all over the place, but none of it is working for us. This is a real test of dedication.

Now, here’s the standout. Fast forward to Saturday morning, the 29th of August. The finder shows a serious pulse of swell arriving – a solid 8ft of NE windswell. And the wind? Glassy. Dead calm. That’s a major positive. The combined energy rockets up to a strong 1259, so there’s plenty of grunt in the water. This is looking like the pick of the whole run.

But listen, that 8ft is a solid size. It’s pushing into expert territory. This is not a day for the learners or the groms; this is for the crew who know what they’re doing. The swell direction is NE, which is a bit off the optimum SE for this spot, but the power and clean conditions should still make it a proper session. Expect some sizeable, lined-up waves. Given the conditions, this is the one you want to be circling on the calendar.

The following Sunday the 30th and Monday the 31st look like they’ll drop right back down to small and ordinary again. So, there you have it: a long, flat spell, one glassy morning on the 19th, and then a big, powerful Saturday on the 29th. Keep your eyes on that one.

Rusty

Read more