Shelley Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what Shelley Beach has cookin’ over the next couple weeks.

Right off the bat, it’s a bit of a rough start. We’ve got a couple of days of pretty ordinary conditions kickin’ things off on Monday, July 6th. The swell is a solid 8 ft from the SSE with a period of 10 seconds, but the wind is onshore and the wave energy is through the roof at 1401, so it’s gonna be a choppy mess. Not one for the surfboard. That continues into Tuesday the 7th, where the swell actually jumps up to 12 ft from the SSE, and the combined energy spikes to a massive 4513. The wind is cross-shore, and while the conditions are supposed to be favorable for tide and wind, the swell size is just way too big for this break. Only the real guns should even think about it, and even then, it’s a risk.

Wednesday the 8th and Thursday the 9th still aren’t your friend. The swell drops a bit to 8 ft and then 6 ft, but the wind stays cross-onshore and the wave energy is still moderate to strong (1735 and 799). The surf quality is marginal at best, with light rain and lumpy conditions. It’s not a total wipeout, but you won't be raving about it.

Things start to turn around on Friday, July 10th. The swell drops to a much more manageable 5 ft from the SE with a period of 9 seconds, and the wind goes light and clean—first cross-off in the morning, then glassy in the afternoon. The wave energy is down to a much more relaxed 446 and 461. This is where you want to be if you can. Saturday the 11th is even better: clear skies, offshore wind from the NW in the morning at 6 mph, and the swell is a sweet 4 ft. The wave energy is 397, so it's still got some punch but it’s clean. It’s not a massive day, but it’s the best clean surf we’ve seen in a while. If you’re a beginner, the swell is under 5 ft, so it’s fine for you. Just watch out for the crowds—they’re *sometimes* a factor here.

Sunday the 12th is a bit of a letdown. The swell drops to 2 ft, and though the wind is offshore and clean, the wave energy is down to a weak 157. It’s surfable, but it’s pretty ordinary. Then we hit a real dead patch from Monday the 13th through Wednesday the 15th morning. The swell is tiny (1.0 ft to 1 ft), the wave energy is weak (19 to 199), and it’s mostly clean but flat. Not worth paddling out.

Wednesday the 15th afternoon kicks up again with a 7 ft S swell at 10 seconds, but the wind goes cross-onshore and the wave energy jumps to 1016. The conditions are marginal. Thursday the 16th is a big one: 10 ft from the S with a period of 10 seconds, and the wave energy is at 2006. The wind is cross-shore, and the report says it’s favorable for wind and tide, but again, that swell is way too big for Shelley Beach. That’s expert-only territory, and even then it’s hairy.

Friday the 17th drops a bit to 7 ft, but the wind is still messy and onshore. Not your day.

Finally, Saturday, July 18th looks like a potential standout. The swell settles to a nice 6 ft from the SE with an 11-second period—that’s some good groundswell energy. The wind is light cross-off in the morning, and the wave energy is 911, which is strong but not insane. The report says “expect very good surf conditions.” This is your best bet for the whole run. It’s a bit bigger, so intermediate surfers will be fine, but beginners might find it a touch much. The long period (11 seconds) means the waves will have good shape, but at a beach break like this, it might close out a bit. Still, with clean conditions, it’s worth the look.

Sunday the 19th is smaller at 4 ft, with offshore wind from the NW. It’s clean but the energy is down to 251. It’s surfable, but nothing special. Then we drop off again into flatness for Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st, where the swell pops back up to 10 ft from the S with a very short period of 8 seconds, and wave energy at 1302. The wind is offshore and clean, but that short-period swell is gonna be messy and too big for most.

So, overall: the first week is mostly a write-off with some decent clean windows on Friday the 10th and Saturday the 11th. The real winner is Saturday, July 18th, with clean, strong groundswell from the SE. That’s your call to action. After that, it’s small or too big again.

There’s a big gap of basically no good surf from Sunday the 12th through Friday the 17th, so don't hold your breath that week.

Stay tuned, forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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