
Surf Forecasts:
Shelley Beach surf forecast from 5 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 7 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 11s period, SSE swell with cross-shore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 7 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 11s period, SE swell with 2,539 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 7 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 11s period with SSE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Shelley Beach this week:
The surf forecast for Shelley Beach over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 07) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.5m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 3.0m and 10s. The wind is predicted to be cross-shore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Shelley Beach in the next 16 days are 3.5m 11s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 07) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.8m 4s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 12) at 4PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7AM (Tue 7th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 7AM (Tue 7th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 11s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Tue 7th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 11s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Shelley Beach over the next 16 days.
Updates in hr min s Forecast update imminent
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what Shelley Beach has cookin’ over the next couple weeks.
Right off the bat, it’s a bit of a rough start. We’ve got a couple of days of pretty ordinary conditions kickin’ things off on Monday, July 6th. The swell is a solid 8 ft from the SSE with a period of 10 seconds, but the wind is onshore and the wave energy is through the roof at 1401, so it’s gonna be a choppy mess. Not one for the surfboard. That continues into Tuesday the 7th, where the swell actually jumps up to 12 ft from the SSE, and the combined energy spikes to a massive 4513. The wind is cross-shore, and while the conditions are supposed to be favorable for tide and wind, the swell size is just way too big for this break. Only the real guns should even think about it, and even then, it’s a risk.
Wednesday the 8th and Thursday the 9th still aren’t your friend. The swell drops a bit to 8 ft and then 6 ft, but the wind stays cross-onshore and the wave energy is still moderate to strong (1735 and 799). The surf quality is marginal at best, with light rain and lumpy conditions. It’s not a total wipeout, but you won't be raving about it.
Things start to turn around on Friday, July 10th. The swell drops to a much more manageable 5 ft from the SE with a period of 9 seconds, and the wind goes light and clean—first cross-off in the morning, then glassy in the afternoon. The wave energy is down to a much more relaxed 446 and 461. This is where you want to be if you can. Saturday the 11th is even better: clear skies, offshore wind from the NW in the morning at 6 mph, and the swell is a sweet 4 ft. The wave energy is 397, so it's still got some punch but it’s clean. It’s not a massive day, but it’s the best clean surf we’ve seen in a while. If you’re a beginner, the swell is under 5 ft, so it’s fine for you. Just watch out for the crowds—they’re *sometimes* a factor here.
Sunday the 12th is a bit of a letdown. The swell drops to 2 ft, and though the wind is offshore and clean, the wave energy is down to a weak 157. It’s surfable, but it’s pretty ordinary. Then we hit a real dead patch from Monday the 13th through Wednesday the 15th morning. The swell is tiny (1.0 ft to 1 ft), the wave energy is weak (19 to 199), and it’s mostly clean but flat. Not worth paddling out.
Wednesday the 15th afternoon kicks up again with a 7 ft S swell at 10 seconds, but the wind goes cross-onshore and the wave energy jumps to 1016. The conditions are marginal. Thursday the 16th is a big one: 10 ft from the S with a period of 10 seconds, and the wave energy is at 2006. The wind is cross-shore, and the report says it’s favorable for wind and tide, but again, that swell is way too big for Shelley Beach. That’s expert-only territory, and even then it’s hairy.
Friday the 17th drops a bit to 7 ft, but the wind is still messy and onshore. Not your day.
Finally, Saturday, July 18th looks like a potential standout. The swell settles to a nice 6 ft from the SE with an 11-second period—that’s some good groundswell energy. The wind is light cross-off in the morning, and the wave energy is 911, which is strong but not insane. The report says “expect very good surf conditions.” This is your best bet for the whole run. It’s a bit bigger, so intermediate surfers will be fine, but beginners might find it a touch much. The long period (11 seconds) means the waves will have good shape, but at a beach break like this, it might close out a bit. Still, with clean conditions, it’s worth the look.
Sunday the 19th is smaller at 4 ft, with offshore wind from the NW. It’s clean but the energy is down to 251. It’s surfable, but nothing special. Then we drop off again into flatness for Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st, where the swell pops back up to 10 ft from the S with a very short period of 8 seconds, and wave energy at 1302. The wind is offshore and clean, but that short-period swell is gonna be messy and too big for most.
So, overall: the first week is mostly a write-off with some decent clean windows on Friday the 10th and Saturday the 11th. The real winner is Saturday, July 18th, with clean, strong groundswell from the SE. That’s your call to action. After that, it’s small or too big again.
There’s a big gap of basically no good surf from Sunday the 12th through Friday the 17th, so don't hold your breath that week.
Stay tuned, forecasts can change.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 21mm), heaviest during Sun night. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon afternoon, min 14°C on Sun night). Mainly fresh winds. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 18mm), heaviest on Wed night. Very mild (max 18°C on Sat afternoon, min 12°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 6 | Tuesday 7 | Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | Friday 10 | Saturday 11 | Sun 12 | |||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 11 | SE 11 | SE 11 | SE 11 | SE 11 | SE 10 | SE 9 | SE 9 | SE 9 | SE 9 | SE 10 | SE 10 | SE 9 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | ESE 9 | ESE 10 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
1939 | 1393 | 1434 | 1620 | 2415 | 2539 | 2453 | 1445 | 1232 | 936 | 577 | 619 | 492 | 446 | 450 | 399 | 225 | 190 | 135 | 59 | 92 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross-on | on | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | off | off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off |
High Tide | 11:35PM1.38m | 12:42PM1.19m | 00:21AM1.30m | 1:34PM1.25m | 1:18AM1.20m | 2:29PM1.33m | 2:25AM1.12m | 3:27PM1.43m | 3:41AM1.07m | 4:26PM1.53m | 4:57AM1.05m | 5:23PM1.64m | 6:06AM1.07m | 6:19PM1.74m | |||||||
Low Tide | 6:18AM0.20m | 6:23PM0.52m | 6:59AM0.22m | 7:29PM0.53m | 7:46AM0.24m | 8:44PM0.49m | 8:39AM0.27m | 10:00PM0.41m | 9:38AM0.30m | 11:11PM0.30m | 10:38AM0.30m | 00:15AM0.17m | 11:38AM0.29m | ||||||||
— | 6:58 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:56 | — | |
— | — | 4:59 | — | — | 4:59 | — | — | 5:00 | — | — | 5:00 | — | — | 5:00 | — | — | 5:00 | — | — | 5:01 | |
mm | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 17 | 18 | 14 | 15 | 15 |
Feels °C | 9 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 11 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 13 | E 14 | E 14 | — | SSE 10 | S 16 | SE 11 | SE 11 | SE 11 | SE 10 | SE 9 | SE 9 | SE 9 | SE 9 | SE 10 | SE 10 | SE 9 | SE 9 | ESE 10 | ESE 9 | ESE 10 |
14 | 4 | 15 | — | 1741 | 5 | 2058 | 1445 | 1232 | 936 | 577 | 619 | 492 | 446 | 450 | 399 | 225 | 142 | 135 | 59 | 92 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | E 14 | E 14 | — | SE 14 | — | — | ESE 14 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | S 16 | — | S 19 | ESE 14 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | SE 9 | SSE 9 | SSE 8 |
— | 4 | 4 | — | 357 | — | — | 290 | 320 | 69 | 216 | 39 | 5 | — | 7 | 21 | 167 | 190 | 79 | 50 | 25 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 20 | S 18 | S 17 | S 20 | — | S 14 | S 17 | S 16 | S 15 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | S 16 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8 | 6 | 6 | 8 | — | 4 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 58 | 48 | 5 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 11 | SE 11 | SE 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | WSW 3 | — | — | — | — | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | NNW 4 |
1939 | 1393 | 1434 | 1620 | 2415 | 2539 | 2453 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 3 | 16 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 296 | 238 | 166 | 11 | 11 | 41 | 131 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Newcastle | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Shelley Beach Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Shelley Beach provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Shelley Beach can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Shelley Beach surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Shelley Beach) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Shelley Beach may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Newcastle? If you are looking for accommodation near Shelley Beach, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Newcastle, consider staying in Central Coast which is 20 km (12 miles) away. Other places in and around Newcastle where you can find information about places to rent, and car hire include Catherine Hill Bay which is 24 km (15 miles) away, Dee Why, Newcastle and Hornsby.











