Shelley Beach Surf Break

Lat Long: 33.36° S 151.51° E

Shelley Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 pm 15 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Shelley Beach sea temperature is
18.4° C
0.2° 

Shelley Beach surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Shelley Beach surf forecast from 15 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Monday 20 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 10s period, ENE swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Sunday 19 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 10s period, E swell with 755 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 20 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 10s period with ENE swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Shelley Beach this week:

The surf forecast for Shelley Beach over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 20) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 10s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 11s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Shelley Beach in the next 16 days are 2.0m 10s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 19) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 4s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 21) at 7PM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+)10PM (Mon 20th Jul)5ft (1.6m) 10s
Best Surf10PM (Mon 20th Jul)5ft (1.6m) 10s
Most Powerful 7AM (Sun 19th Jul)6.5ft (2.0m) 10s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Shelley Beach over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

G'day, I'm Rusty, and I'm looking at the forecast for Shelley Beach. The coming 16 days start off pretty grim, I'm not gonna lie. The first actual surf window that's worth paddling out for doesn't show up until the morning of Monday the 21st. Before that, it's a solid week of onshore slop, chop, or just plain poor conditions. The water temp is sitting at 65°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Alright, let's take it from the top. The first real flicker of hope comes on Monday the 21st of July. There's a clean morning session with a 5ft swell from the ENE, period around 10 seconds. The wind is a light cross-offshore from the NNW, which is a major positive. The combined energy is moderate (440), and it's clean, so you'll get some lined-up waves. By the afternoon, the wind swings around and ruins it, so get out early.

If you miss that, keep your eyes on Wednesday the 23rd. The morning is a bit cross, but the real standout is the afternoon session. It's glassy as a mirror with a light easterly breeze, and the swell is 3ft from the ENE with a period of 9 seconds. The combined energy is weak (136), but the conditions are glassy and surfable. It's a classic small-board day, not a world-beater, but clean.

Then, we have a dry spell again until the morning of Saturday the 26th of July. The swell is tiny, 1ft, but the wind is a clean cross-off from the WNW and the combined energy is very weak (94). It's more of a longboard wave if you're desperate.

Looking further ahead to the 27th of July, Monday morning, there's a clean little bump of 1ft swell from the SSE with a very long period of 17 seconds. The combined energy is moderate (206), and the wind is a clean cross-off from the WSW. This is a groundswell with serious period, but it's tiny. It'll be best at a point or reef, but Shelley is a beach break, so it'll likely be a bit too straight for a good wall.

The best session on offer, and the one I'm genuinely excited about, is the morning of Thursday the 30th of July. We've got a solid 6ft of swell from the S with a period of 11 seconds. The combined energy is strong (766), and the wind is a clean offshore from the WNW. This is a proper setup – clean, lined-up, and with some push. This is the one to circle on the calendar. It's a bit far out, so keep an eye on it, but it looks promising. For the skilled crew, it'll be a cracker.

Overall, if you're a beginner, stay out of the water when the swell is over 5ft, and definitely avoid the 8ft days on the 15th and 28th of July, which are for experts only. The setup on the 30th will be too big for a learner. For everyone else, paddle out on the 21st morning, the 23rd afternoon, and absolutely don't miss the 30th morning.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Heavy rain (total 25mm), heaviest during Thu morning. Very mild (max 17°C on Fri afternoon, min 12°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SSW on Thu morning, light winds from the SSE by Fri morning).

Days 5-7 Weather Summary

Some drizzle, heaviest during Sat afternoon. Very mild (max 17°C on Sat afternoon, min 13°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light.

Wed
15
Thursday
16
Friday
17
Saturday
18
Sunday
19
Monday
20
Tuesday
21
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
Rating
(10 max)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
2
2
2
3
2
0
2
2
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
2.4
S
9
1.8
S
8
2.1
S
8
1.9
S
8
1.2
S
7
0.9
S
6
1
E
6
0.9
E
7
1.2
E
7
1.3
E
8
1.9
E
10
1.9
E
10
1.8
E
10
1.7
E
10
1.6
E
10
1.6
ENE
10
1.5
ENE
10
1.4
ENE
10
1.4
ENE
10
1.4
ENE
10
1.2
ENE
10
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
984
367
537
435
150
65
84
83
142
186
680
701
693
608
530
482
416
377
363
356
258
Wind (km/h)
30
SSW
25
SSW
30
SSW
20
SE
15
SE
5
SSE
15
SE
15
SSE
20
SSE
20
SSE
20
SE
20
ESE
15
SE
10
E
10
ENE
15
NE
10
NNW
10
NNW
20
NE
10
WNW
5
W
Wind State
cross-on
cross
cross
on
on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
on
on
on
on
cross-on
cross
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-off
glassy
High Tide
8:54PM1.85m
9:44AM1.21m
9:42PM1.79m
10:32AM1.23m
10:29PM1.67m
11:20AM1.25m
11:15PM1.51m
12:09PM1.27m
00:01AM1.34m
12:59PM1.28m
00:51AM1.17m
1:51PM1.29m
1:47AM1.03m
Low Tide
3:43AM-0.06m
3:15PM0.24m
4:28AM-0.02m
4:07PM0.28m
5:10AM0.04m
5:01PM0.35m
5:51AM0.13m
5:59PM0.42m
6:30AM0.22m
7:01PM0.48m
7:10AM0.31m
8:11PM0.52m
7:53AM0.39m
part cloud
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
light rain
light rain
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:54
6:54
6:54
6:54
6:52
6:52
6:52
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:02
5:04
5:05
5:05
5:06
5:06
5:07
5:07
 mm
1
5
7
7
2
1
1
1
1
Temp °C
15
15
16
16
16
16
17
17
16
17
16
17
17
17
16
16
16
17
18
17
17
Feels °C
9
10
11
13
14
15
14
14
12
12
12
13
14
14
14
13
14
14
14
16
15
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Shelley Beach Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Shelley Beach provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Shelley Beach can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Shelley Beach surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Shelley Beach) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Shelley Beach may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Newcastle? If you are looking for accommodation near Shelley Beach, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Newcastle, consider staying in Central Coast which is 20 km (12 miles) away. Other places in and around Newcastle where you can find information about places to rent, and car hire include Catherine Hill Bay which is 24 km (15 miles) away, Dee Why, Newcastle and Hornsby.

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