Shelley Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s get into it.

We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag coming up at Shelley Beach. Right now, the first thing worth talking about is Saturday morning, July 4th. It’s not a huge swell, but it’s a clean start with a 4ft swell coming from the S, period at 11 seconds – that’s a nice groundswell. The wind is light and offshore from the WNW at 3 mph, so the surface will be clean. Combined energy is sitting at 367 (moderate), and the water temp is 67°, about a degree and a half warmer than average, so it’s a touch of a warm little anomaly. For an early July session, that’s pleasant. Crowds can be a problem here sometimes, so getting in early is a good call. The offshore wind will keep things tidy.

By Saturday afternoon though, the wind swings onshore from the ESE at 6 mph, and the quality drops right off.

Sunday through Wednesday is a write-off for paddle surfing. Sunday sees a big 10ft S swell (2034 combined energy) but with a 19 mph SSW cross-onshore wind and rain – lumpy, messy, no good. Monday and Tuesday are similar – big swell, but onshore and cross-onshore winds, rain, and chop. The swell is over 8ft through those days, so even if the wind turned, it’d be expert-only territory. Not the sort of thing you’d want to push a beginner into.

There’s a blip on Tuesday morning, July 7th with a 10ft SSE swell (2979 combined energy) and cross-shore wind, but the guidance says the swell is too big for this break. Too much juice for Shelley Beach.

Wednesday morning, July 8th, same story – 10ft, cross-shore, but too big.

It’s not until Friday morning, July 10th that things start to look a bit more realistic. The swell drops to 7ft from the SSE (1089 combined energy) with a 9 mph SW cross-shore wind – marginal, but it’s getting there. Not a standout, just a glimmer.

Then Saturday, July 11th is the real highlight of the whole outlook. Morning and afternoon both have 5ft to 5ft swell from the SE, with an 11-second period, and light offshore wind from the WNW at 6 mph in the morning, then from the NNW in the afternoon. Clean conditions all day. The combined energy is moderate (around 349-429). That’s the one to aim for. Keep an eye on the crowds though – Shelley Beach can get busy when it’s clean.

After that, it fades into small stuff and poor wind through the middle of the month. Saturday, July 18th afternoon pops up with a 8ft S swell (1148 combined energy) and clean cross-offshore wind – that’s good for experienced surfers only, but the shape could be fun if you’ve got the skills. Then Sunday, July 19th brings a 15ft S swell – massive, with over 5000 combined energy – but the guidance says it’s too big for this break. That’s kite territory.

Overall, the best on offer is Saturday morning July 11th for clean, manageable waves. If you can get out there, do it. Otherwise, the rest of the window is either blown out, too big, or too small.

Rusty.

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