Shelley Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you—this 16-day window for Shelley Beach is looking like a whole lot of nothing for us paddle surfers. We’ve got a long stretch of small, weak, and messy waves ahead, and honestly, the first real bit of hope doesn’t even show up until Thursday the 13th, and even then, it’s a tricky one.

The next week and a half are going to be a grind. We’re looking at a lot of days with minimal swell, mostly under 3 feet, and the winds are all over the place. There’s a glassy morning on Saturday the 8th, but the swell’s barely pushing 1 feet, which is more of a knee-paddle than a surf. The energy is weak, sitting around 76, so it’s just not worth suiting up for. We get a slight bump on Sunday the 9th with some chest-high ENE swell, but the cross-off wind is making it lumpy and hard to read. The combined energy gets into the moderate range at 159, but it’s still just ordinary.

Monday the 10th has some size, but the wind is howling offshore at 25 mph. It’s clean, sure, but it’s blowing so hard you can’t even get out the back. The energy is moderate at 242, but it’s a fight, not a surf. The rest of that week stays small and onshore, with a tiny S pulse on Tuesday the 11th and Wednesday the 12th that gets the energy up to 158-167, but the swell is still under 3 feet. It’s just not doing it for me.

Now, here’s the one thing that catches my eye. Thursday the 13th. The swell forecast is a solid 10 feet from the SSW with the energy gauge absolutely cranking at 2047. That’s some serious juice. But—and this is a big but—the comments literally say it’s predicted to be too big for this break. It’s also coming with a moderate cross-shore. For Shelley Beach, which is an exposed setup, that much swell is going to be a washing machine. It’ll be a sight to see, but for paddling out on a normal board? You’d want to be a proper expert, and even then, it’s sketchy. The following Friday the 14th drops to 6 feet, but it’s got a cross-shore chop on it, so it’s not going to be clean. The energy is still strong at 856, so there’s power, but the conditions are against us.

After that, it’s back to the small stuff and onshore winds for the rest of the week. The second week is mostly forgettable, with a few glassy windows like Wednesday the 19th afternoon and Thursday the 20th morning, but the swell is just too weak to get excited about. The energy is down in the double digits, which is just sad.

There is one light at the end of the tunnel, though. Saturday the 22nd. It’s a long way out, so I wouldn’t book the day off work yet, but the early call is for a 8 feet S swell with glassy conditions. That’s got “expect very good surf conditions” written all over it, and the energy is strong at 736. If that holds, that’s the standout. That’s the one we’re waiting for. It’s over two weeks away, so treat it as a promising rumour more than a guarantee, but it’s finally something to dream about.

Otherwise, it’s a lean spell. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. For the next week or so, you might be better off dusting off the kiteboard if the wind’s blowing, because for the paddle crew, it’s slim pickings. Keep an eye on that 22nd, though. That could be the one.

Rusty

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