
Surf Forecasts:
Shelley Beach surf forecast from 12 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 18 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 10s period, ESE swell with onshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 19 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 12s period, ESE swell with 4,048 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 18 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 10s period with ESE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Shelley Beach this week:
The surf forecast for Shelley Beach over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 18) at 4PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 10s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 19s. Another secondary swell of 0.2m and 19s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be onshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Shelley Beach in the next 16 days are 4.0m 12s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 19) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.7m 4s period and expected on Monday (Jul 13) at 1AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4PM (Sat 18th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 10s |
| Best Surf | 4PM (Sat 18th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 10s |
| Most Powerful | 4AM (Sun 19th Jul) | 13ft (4.0m) 12s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Shelley Beach over the next 16 days.
Alright, let’s get into it. The next 16 days are a real mixed bag and, honestly, not a lot to get excited about for a while. The first week is mostly a write-off, but there’s a potential window in the second week that could be worth watching.
Right now, Shelley Beach is flat, or close to it. We’ve got a little 2 ft (0.5m) ESE swell this afternoon, but it’s bumpy with a 15 mph cross-offshore wind from the west, and the wave energy is weak (66). It’s not even worth paddling out for. The water temp is sitting at 66°, which is about average for this time of year.
Monday and Tuesday are even smaller. We’re talking 0.7 ft to 1.0 ft (0.2m to 0.3m) swells with light offshore winds, but the energy is next to nothing (21-14). It’s just flat. Wednesday and Thursday the 15th and 16th see a proper pulse of S and SSE swell, but it’s completely blown out. Wednesday morning has 6 ft (1.9m) of southerly swell at 8 seconds, but with a 19 mph cross-shore wind, it’s a messy, lumpy mess (403 energy). That afternoon, it jumps up to 12 ft (3.5m) (10 seconds) and 2299 energy, but the wind is still howling. That’s too big for this spot anyway, and it’s raw. Thursday is onshore and rainy, with 8 ft (2.3m) – not good. Friday and Saturday the 18th and 19th are the same story: big, raw, and onshore. Saturday afternoon sees 10 ft (3.0m) (10 seconds) with 1835 energy, and the wind is easing, but it’s just too big and onshore. The swell is predicted to be too big for this break. That’s a kite-surfing setup, not a paddle-in one.
The best chance comes in the second week. Monday the 21st of July morning is the standout. The wind swings light and offshore from the WNW (6 mph) and we’ve got 6 ft (1.8m) of E swell at 10 seconds. That’s a moderate energy level (707) and it’s clean. The period is solid, but it’s an east swell, so at Shelley Beach, it might be a bit close-outy on the beach. It’s still the best on offer. After that, Tuesday and Wednesday the 22nd and 23rd drop back to 5 ft to 5 ft (1.5m to 1.4m), and the wind is more cross or cross-on, so it’s not as good.
Thursday the 24th of July morning has a little 3 ft (0.9m) ESE swell (11 seconds) with a light cross-offshore breeze, and it’s clean. Energy is moderate (333). That’s a nice little window if you’re not fussy. Friday the 25th is tiny, but Thursday afternoon the 24th goes glassy with 3 ft (0.8m) of ESE swell and 246 energy. That’s the cleanest, most fun little wave of the whole run. Perfect for a longboard or a fish.
The end of the run (26th-27th) is back to flat, with 1 ft to 1.0 ft (0.4m to 0.3m) swells and very weak energy (55-28). Not worth a wet suit.
So, to sum it up: the first week is a bust. The swell is either too small, too big, or too windy. The best bet is the morning of Monday the 21st of July for size (6 ft) and clean conditions, or the glassy afternoon of Thursday the 24th of July for a fun, clean little wave. It’s a patchy forecast, but you’ll get a couple of sessions in if you’re patient.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Warm (max 20°C on Tue afternoon, min 10°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (light winds from the WNW on Tue morning, fresh winds from the SSW by Wed morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 9mm), mostly falling on Wed afternoon. Very mild (max 17°C on Thu morning, min 14°C on Wed afternoon). Mainly fresh winds. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sun 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | |||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 9 | SE 9 | S 11 | S 11 | S 11 | S 20 | S 16 | S 11 | S 8 | S 10 | SSE 8 | SSE 8 | SE 7 | SE 7 | ESE 9 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 9 | ESE 10 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
50 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 403 | 2299 | 804 | 575 | 383 | 342 | 549 | 488 | 638 | 969 | 1801 | 3042 | 2947 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-on | on | on | on | on | cross-on | on | on | on | on | on |
High Tide | 6:19PM1.74m | 7:08AM1.11m | 7:13PM1.82m | 8:03AM1.14m | 8:04PM1.86m | 8:55AM1.18m | 8:54PM1.85m | 9:44AM1.21m | 9:42PM1.79m | 10:32AM1.23m | 10:29PM1.67m | 11:20AM1.25m | 11:15PM1.51m | 12:09PM1.27m | |||||||
Low Tide | 1:13AM0.06m | 12:36PM0.26m | 2:06AM-0.02m | 1:30PM0.24m | 2:56AM-0.06m | 2:23PM0.23m | 3:43AM-0.06m | 3:15PM0.24m | 4:28AM-0.02m | 4:07PM0.28m | 5:10AM0.04m | 5:01PM0.35m | 5:51AM0.13m | ||||||||
— | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:54 | |
5:01 | — | — | 5:01 | — | — | 5:02 | — | — | 5:02 | — | — | 5:04 | — | — | 5:05 | — | — | 5:05 | — | 5:06 | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3 | — | 2 | — | — | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
Temp °C | 16 | 11 | 18 | 19 | 13 | 19 | 20 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
Feels °C | 9 | 6 | 13 | 15 | 8 | 15 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 9 | SE 9 | SSW 7 | S 11 | S 8 | S 7 | S 7 | S 11 | — | — | S 16 | S 14 | E 9 | S 12 | S 18 | S 11 | S 10 | S 10 | S 19 | ESE 12 | SSE 17 |
50 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 21 | — | — | 5 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 3042 | 58 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 8 | SSW 6 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | S 11 | S 11 | S 16 | — | — | — | — | — | S 13 | S 12 | S 17 | S 18 | S 21 | S 20 | S 19 | SSE 18 | SE 17 |
16 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 25 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 30 | 27 | 31 | 12 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | S 11 | S 11 | S 7 | SE 8 | S 20 | S 10 | E 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 15 | S 15 | — | — | — | SE 18 |
— | 3 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 5 | — | — | — | 12 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | W 4 | W 4 | WNW 3 | NW 3 | NW 3 | WNW 3 | — | SW 3 | S 8 | S 10 | SSE 8 | SSE 8 | SE 7 | SE 7 | ESE 9 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 9 | ESE 10 | — | ESE 11 |
13 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 4 | — | 5 | 403 | 2299 | 804 | 575 | 383 | 342 | 549 | 488 | 638 | 969 | 1801 | — | 2947 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 30 | 161 | 22 | 19 | 228 | 228 | 398 | 53 | 180 | 205 | 205 | 205 | 166 | 130 | 131 | 166 | 131 | 57 | 57 | 35 | 11 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Newcastle | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Shelley Beach Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Shelley Beach provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Shelley Beach can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Shelley Beach surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Shelley Beach) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Shelley Beach may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Newcastle? If you are looking for accommodation near Shelley Beach, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Newcastle, consider staying in Central Coast which is 20 km (12 miles) away. Other places in and around Newcastle where you can find information about places to rent, and car hire include Catherine Hill Bay which is 24 km (15 miles) away, Dee Why, Newcastle and Hornsby.











