Blue Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m looking at your local surf for the next couple of weeks. Let’s get straight into it.

The break we’re looking at is Blue Bay, a reef setup that’s inconsistent and needs a specific swell direction from SSE to really get going. The immediate forecast is pretty grim, to be honest. We’ve got a long stretch of weak, small surf ahead. The opening days of August are flat out poor, with tiny waves around 1 ft and low energy (35 to 45 on the combined energy scale). The wind is okay – even glassy on Thursday the 6th morning – but the swell is just too small to do anything with. There’s a brief pulse of energy on Friday the 7th morning with 3 ft at 9 seconds, and the wind is offshore, but the quality is still described as very ordinary. The energy is moderate (206), but it’s not enough to get excited about.

Things finally get interesting on Friday, August 14th. That morning is the standout of the entire forecast. We’re looking at a solid 6 ft swell from the south with a 12-second period. That’s a proper groundswell. The combined energy is a very strong 1052, meaning there’s serious power in the water. The wind is a light offshore, keeping it clean. This is a day for experienced surfers only – anything over 5 ft is pushing it for beginners, and 6 ft is a solid step up. The long period (12 seconds) means better shaped waves, which is a big plus for a reef break like this. The downside is the crowds here are listed as ‘sometimes,’ so expect a few others out there with the same idea. This is the pick of the fortnight.

The week after that drops off hard. Saturday the 15th morning has a weird, very long-period (25 seconds) swell from the SSE, but it’s tiny at 1 ft with a massive 433 energy – that’s a lot of push for a knee-high wave, and it’s likely to feel weird and fat, especially on a reef. The rest of the days are a mixed bag of onshore winds, small waves, and poor conditions. The 16th and 17th offer some glassy mornings with 3 ft to 4 ft surf, but the energy is moderate and the cross-shore or onshore winds will mess it up by the afternoon. The last week is a washout of small, weak, and messy surf.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a total write-off. The big standout is the morning of Friday, August 14th. If you can make that, you’ll get the best clean, powerful swell of the whole 16 days. The water temperature is sitting at 64°F, which is very close to average for this time of year, so it’s not a wetsuit drama.

Stay patient, and circle that Friday on your calendar.

- Rusty

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