Blue Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I’ve gotta be straight with you—the outlook for Blue Bay over the next couple weeks is pretty grim. There are only a few small windows where it might be worth a paddle, and the rest is just blown out, chopped up, or flat. Let’s break it down.

The first real chance to get wet hits on Friday morning, September 18th. Blue Bay is a reef break that’s fairly exposed to swell, with the optimum swell direction coming from SSE, but we’re getting S swell, so it’s not ideal. Still, Friday morning has glassy conditions with hardly any wind, a 5 ft swell from the south at 9 seconds, and the combined swell energy is ticking over at 503 (moderate). The water’s currently sitting at 64°, which is about 1° cooler than average for this time of year—nothing wild, just a touch on the fresh side. This is the standout morning of the whole run, but it’s not going to blow your mind—more of a fun, clean session on a small reef wave. Crowds are “sometimes” here, so you might share it, but for this brief window it could be worth a look.

After Friday morning, it goes downhill fast. Friday afternoon already turns cross-on and choppy. Saturday the 19th has a tiny 3 ft south swell with clean cross-off wind in the morning, but it’s weak—combined energy of 244, which is weak. The afternoon gets messy again. Sunday the 20th is flat and onshore. Monday the 21st morning has a tiny 3 ft swell and clean conditions, but it’s barely surfable, with weak energy (146). After that, it’s pretty much a wipeout.

From Monday afternoon through the end of September, the wind is mostly cross-on or onshore, often fresh to strong, and the swell direction shifts to ENE or NE with short, weak periods—around 5 to 8 seconds. Heights bump up a bit, like Tuesday the 22nd with 7 ft and 6 ft, but it’s a short-period wind swell with lumpy cross-chop—more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle session. The combined energy hits a few hundred, weak to moderate, but the quality is terrible.

There’s a tiny glimmer on September 30th—Wednesday morning—with glassy conditions again, a 5 ft swell from the NE, period of 6 seconds, combined energy 265 (weak). It’s clean but small and weak, surfable but nothing to write home about.

After that, into the first days of October, it’s more onshore wind and small junk. Honestly, this 16-day window is a tough one. Blue Bay is inconsistent at the best of times, and with the winds mostly onshore and the swell direction never matching up properly, there’s not much to chase. Friday morning the 18th is your best bet, and even then, keep your expectations low.

Stay tuned, forecasts change.

Rusty

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