Blue Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for Blue Bay. It’s a bit of a slow burn to start, but there’s some real firepower waiting for us if we’re patient.

The first few days are a bit of a write-off. We’ve got a tiny wave on Saturday the 25th of July, only 5ft, but it’s coming from the S with a cross-on wind and feels weak with a combined energy of just 509. Not worth suiting up for. Sunday the 26th is where it starts to get interesting. The morning session is the pick of the early run: the swell bumps up to 6ft from the S, with a solid 11-second period, and the wind is swinging offshore from the W. That’s going to be clean and have some proper push to it (combined energy of 862). The water temp is sitting at 65°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Monday the 27th drops off quick with a glassy 4ft from the S, but it’s short-period and weak (243 energy). By Tuesday the 28th, it’s all but flat with tiny 2ft waves. We’ve got a long gap of next to nothing through Wednesday the 29th, with only 0.3ft and a weird 18-second period that’s just noise.

Then, hold onto your board. Thursday the 30th of July is a standout. We’re looking at a solid 12ft swell from the S, with an 11-second period. The combined energy is a massive 5030, so there’s some serious power in the water. The wind is a cross-off from the SSW, keeping it clean. But fair warning—this is big. At 12ft, this is expert territory only. It’s going to be a heavy, powerful wave. Friday the 31st is still solid at 10ft from the S, and the energy is still high at 1697, but it’s a little more manageable. The wind stays cross-off. This whole stretch from Thursday through Friday is the real deal, but it’s not for the faint of heart.

We get a bit of a breather into the first week of August. Saturday the 1st is down to 7ft from the SSE, still clean but dropping. Sunday the 2nd of August is another highlight: a 7ft swell from the SE with a long 12-second period, pushing a combined energy of 1258. The morning has a light cross-off from the NNW, making it clean. This is a quality window for a solid, C-grade swell. The wave will have good shape thanks to the long period, but that long period means it might be a bit more walled up at a beach break—Blue Bay is a reef, so it should handle it well.

Into the second week, things get more inconsistent. Monday the 3rd gives us a clean 4ft from the SE, but the energy is low (351). The rest of the week is a mix of small, weaker swells and onshore winds, with nothing really standing out until Friday the 7th of August. That morning is a cracker: a 6ft from the E, but with glassy conditions (SW wind at 5 km/h) and a combined energy of 725. That’s a sneaky good session for the more experienced crew. The weekend following that gets messy again with onshore winds spoiling the shape.

The absolute standout window is Thursday the 30th of July through to Sunday the 2nd of August. The big S swell on the 30th and 31st is the heavy-hitter, but Sunday the 2nd is the best balance of size and clean conditions. I’d be circling that Sunday morning. Crowds are a possibility as it’s a reef break that can get busy, but with that size, it’ll thin out the pack.

So, to sum it up: the first couple of days are flat and unremarkable, but we’ve got a solid week of proper surf from the 30th of July through the 3rd of August. The long-range stuff at the end of the second week is more of a gamble, but that Friday the 7th morning with glassy conditions is worth a look if you’re keen.

Rusty.

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