Blue Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's take a look at what's cookin' at Blue Bay.

The next week and a half is a real story of two halves. For the first week, it's mostly a waiting game with small, weak surf. But hang in there, because the second half of the period has some serious muscle moving in, though it's definitely not for the faint of heart. The water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The action starts on Friday the 10th with a bit of a tease. We've got a 6ft SE swell rolling in with a 10-second period, and the wind is light offshore in the morning, going glassy by the afternoon. The combined energy is moderate (634). It's clean, but it's a bit small and a touch inconsistent here. Saturday the 11th drops a little to 4ft, still clean, but the energy is winding down (434). By Sunday the 12th, it's fading fast into small, ordinary stuff that's not worth changing your plans for.

We get a long, flat spell from Monday the 13th right through Friday the 17th morning. The surf is tiny, weak, and the energy readings are in the double digits or low triple digits. There's a spike of 12ft on the afternoon of the 15th, but it's accompanied by a strong 22 mph cross-offshore wind and a short period, making it look more like a kite-surfing session than a paddle-in day. The combined energy jumps to 2179, but the conditions are marginal.

The stand-out window, and the true highlight of this outlook, is the 48-hour period from Friday the 17th afternoon through Saturday the 18th morning. This is the big one. A solid 18ft SSE groundswell is pumping in with a 12 to 13-second period, creating a very long period groundswell. The combined energy is massive, hitting 9198 and 8822. The wind is a light 6-9 mph cross-offshore, keeping it clean. This is exceptional surf, but it's expert-only territory. The size alone is intimidating, and that long period at a reef break like Blue Bay can mean powerful, sucky waves. If you're not on your game, sit this one out.

Sunday the 19th still has a solid 10ft SSE swell, but the wind is still favourable. After that, it's a steady drop back down through the following week, with the swell fading and the consistency dropping off. By the 25th of July, there's another big 12ft S swell on the charts with a very long 13-second period, but that's a long way out and needs to be watched.

So, bottom line: if you're an expert, the morning of Saturday the 18th is the clear standout. For everyone else, the clean but smaller conditions on Friday the 10th and Saturday the 11th are your best bet. The rest of the run is mostly a waiting game.

Rusty.

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