Blue Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get one thing straight from the get-go: if you’re looking for a classic, solid session, you’ve got to be patient. The next week and a half is a game of waiting for the right moment, because the swell is going to come and go in pulses, and the wind is going to be the real deciding factor.

The first real window worth talking about kicks off on Friday, July 10th. Blue Bay is the only break on the menu, and it’s a reef setup that’s inconsistent, so keep that in mind. The water temp is sitting at 66°F, which is about average for this time of year, so nothing wild there.

That Friday afternoon, the wind goes glassy out of the SE at a whispery 3 mph. Combined swell energy is moderate (604), with a 6ft swell from the SE at a 10-second period. It’s a bit of a groundswell, and at a reef, that can mean some nice, lined-up waves. This is your best bet in the entire outlook. It’s not huge, but it’s clean, and it’s the most promising moment.

Saturday, July 11th, the morning session is a solid second choice. The wind swings NW at 6 mph, so it’s cross-offshore and clean. Swell drops to 3ft from the ESE with a 12-second period, giving it a bit more pulse (energy at 411). The afternoon turns cross-shore and a bit bumpy, so morning is your window.

Sunday, July 12th has a strong offshore wind, WNW at 19 mph, and the swell is tiny at 3ft. The energy is weak (139). It’s clean, but it’s a gutless paddle. The waves are just too small to get excited about.

After that, things go flat. From Monday, July 13th right through to Tuesday, July 21st, the swell is mostly below 3ft, with a few days where it’s practically non-existent. It’s a long, dry spell. The wind is often offshore, but there’s just no push to the water.

There is a spike on Wednesday, July 15th with a 7ft to 7ft swell from the S, but the period is a short 8-9 seconds, generating a chunky, raw energy (873). The wind is cross-shore with some chop, and the conditions are marginal. This is more of a messy, short-period storm swell, not the clean, lined-up stuff you want at a reef. It’s a pass for me.

The next real glimmer of hope comes on Thursday, July 16th. The morning is clean, with a WSW wind at 6 mph, cross-offshore. The swell is 5ft from the S at 10 seconds, with moderate energy (374). It’s a solid, surfable day. The afternoon degrades with a cross-onshore wind, so aim for the morning.

The following week, from Friday, July 17th through to Saturday, July 25th, sees mostly small, weak swells. There are a couple of mornings with clean conditions, but the wave heights are rarely above 3ft, and the energy is low. It’s a long stretch of “ordinary” at best. The period around July 18th has a 4ft, 11-second swell from the S with decent energy (470) and clean wind, which is worth a look if you’re desperate, but it’s not a standout.

To sum it up: Friday, July 10th afternoon is the only true standout. Glassy conditions, a solid 6ft groundswell, and a reef that can shape it up. If you miss that, the Saturday morning of the 11th is your next best bet. After that, you’re watching the swell charts and hoping for a change.

Rusty.

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