Blue Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the table for Blue Bay over the next couple of weeks.

First up, a bit of a slow start. The water temp is sitting pretty average for this time of year, so no real surprises there. The first real chance for a paddle isn't until Saturday the 11th, and honestly, it's a tease. The morning sees a clean 3ft swell from the ESE with a nice 12-second period, and the combined energy is a solid 411. That's a decent amount of push, and with a light offshore breeze, it'll be clean. But it's a reef break that's inconsistent, and it's only really exposed to a SSE swell, so this ESE energy isn't quite hitting it right. It’s a bit of a shame, because the setup looks good, but the wave direction is off. The afternoon gets a bit choppy and the score drops off, so that morning window is the only real look on Saturday.

Sunday the 12th is a write-off. The swell drops to 3ft, and while the wind is offshore, it's howling at 15-18 mph. The wave energy is weak (130), so it's just a windy, blown-out mess.

We then hit a dead zone. From Monday the 13th through to Tuesday the 14th, there's barely a ripple. The swell is tiny, wind is all over the place, and the energy figures are in the single digits or low teens. Save your gas.

Things start to get interesting on Wednesday the 15th, but it's a wild card. The morning shows a sudden spike to a 10ft S swell. That's a big jump, and the combined energy is a massive 1808. That's a lot of water moving. However, the wind is a strong cross-off, and the period is only 10 seconds. For a spot that's a reef, it's going to be a heavy, walled-up mess. This is expert-only territory, and it's not going to be pretty. The afternoon drops to 7ft, still big, but still messy. The wind is up and it's just not a clean wave.

Thursday the 16th stays big with 6ft S swell, but it's got light rain and a cross-shore wind. The energy is still high (463), but the quality is poor. The wind is just making it a lumpy, choppy hazard.

The next decent window appears on Monday the 20th. The morning is okay, but the afternoon is the standout. We get a 5ft swell from the ENE with a 9-second period. The energy jumps to 791, and the wind is a light, clean cross-off from the NNW. That's where you want to be. The wave size is solid, the wind is good, and the swell direction is a better match for the break than the earlier S swells. This is the best bet on offer.

After that, Tuesday the 21st and Wednesday the 22nd offer some more clean conditions. Wednesday morning the 22nd is particularly sweet with a glassy 5ft S swell and 516 energy. That's a great session for a surfer who knows the reef.

The rest of the forecast fades out. The swell gets smaller and the winds get stronger again. There's a weak, clean morning on Thursday the 23rd with 4ft S swell, but nothing to write home about after that.

So, to keep it simple: The one true standout is Monday afternoon, the 20th of July. That ENE swell with the light offshore wind will be the cleanest, most powerful wave of the whole run. For a secondary look, that glassy Wednesday morning the 22nd is worth sniffing around for. The rest of the time, it's a mix of too big, too small, or too windy.

Stay safe out there.

Rusty

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