Blue Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a good look at the only game in town for this forecast period: Blue Bay.

First thing you need to know about Blue Bay is that it’s a reef break, fairly exposed to the swell, and the water temp is sitting at 63.5°F which is about average for this time of year. No major surprises there. But don't get your hopes up too high just yet – this spot is inconsistent, so we’re gonna have to pick our moments carefully.

Looking at the next few days, it’s a flat spell. From now until mid-week, we’ve got a run of days with poor surf conditions, small waves under 3.3ft, and cross-onshore or even glassy winds but just no swell energy to work with. Tuesday morning the 15th is glassy but the swell is only 2.3ft from the NE with a short period of 7 seconds, so the combined energy is a weak 79 – not worth paddling out for.

The first real shot of size comes on Wednesday the 16th. A big pulse of S swell moves in. Wednesday morning we’re looking at 9.8ft from the S with a 9-second period, cross-off wind from the SSW at 18.6 mph, and the combined energy is a massive 1469 (moderate to strong). The waves will be clean, but 9.8ft is serious – this is for experienced surfers only. The afternoon jumps to 13.1ft with an even higher energy reading of 3429, still clean but even more intimidating. Thursday the 17th holds similar 9.8ft S swell in the morning with cross-off winds, energy at 1986, still clean but again, this is expert territory. The afternoon turns cross-shore and choppy, but the size stays big.

Now, if you’re looking for the true standout, you have to circle Saturday morning, the 19th of September. That’s your winner. We’ve got a tiny 1.6ft swell from the S, but check this out – a 16-second period, glassy conditions from a light SW breeze, and the combined energy is 299 (moderate for the size). That long period groundswell is going to wrap beautifully into this reef. It won’t be big, but it will be clean, lined up, and easy to paddle into. For a break that’s inconsistent, this is a rare and beautiful window. Just a heads up, it gets crowded here sometimes, so get in early.

After that, we go into another flat period. The rest of the forecast is mostly poor conditions or small, weak swell. There’s another pulse of S swell on Monday the 21st with 9.8ft and 7.2ft, but it’s cross-onshore and choppy – more of a mess than a blessing. For the last week, from the 22nd onwards, it’s mostly small stuff under 4.9ft with poor wind, so don’t hold your breath.

So to sum it up: the mid-week is for big-wave experts only with a side of strong wind. The real gem is Saturday the 19th – glassy, long period, and clean. Don’t miss it.

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