Blue Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – the next couple of weeks at Blue Bay are a mixed bag. We’ve got a long stretch of nothing much, then a few windows that’ll get the heart rate up, especially for the crew who can handle some size. This is a reef break, inconsistent by nature, so you gotta pick your moments.

The first week is pretty grim. From Saturday the 18th through to the end of the week, we’re looking at weak, wind-affected slop. The swell direction is mostly from the east, which is okay for this spot (it’s exposed to the SSE), but the wind is on it or cross-onshore, making a mess of things. The combined swell energy is weak to moderate (around 238-241) on the Saturday, and the surf is below 5ft with short period, so not worth paddling for. Sunday the 19th has a bit more size – 8ft and 7ft – but that cross-onshore wind and moderate energy (1055-1315) still mean it’s choppy. For the rest of the week, it’s tiny, mostly under 3ft, and the wind is all over the place. There’s a gap of several days with no real recommendations.

Now, Monday the 20th is the first little glimmer. The morning session is the standout early in the forecast. Glassy conditions with a light SW offshore wind, 6ft swell from the ENE at 10 seconds, and combined energy of 837 – that’s moderate energy. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. The swell is a bit short of period, but with that clean glass, it’ll be fun, mellow waves for intermediates. Keep an eye on the tide though, as the afternoon gets a bit cross-on.

The real action, the one that’s got me buzzing, is the last few days of July and into August. Friday the 31st of July – mark it. The morning is looking exceptional. We’re talking a solid 12ft swell from the south, with a period of 13 seconds, and a massive 3684 combined energy. The wind is light offshore from the west, so it’ll be clean. That’s a groundswell with real punch, and with a long period, it’ll stand up well on this reef. But listen, this is big – over 8ft – so it’s for experts only. The afternoon sees the wind swing onshore, making it messy.

The weekend of the 1st and 2nd of August keeps the size coming. Saturday the 1st has 10ft from the south, but with a cross-onshore wind, it’s a bit lumpy. The combined energy is still strong (2629-3496). Sunday the 2nd of August is the absolute bomb – 13ft south swell, clean offshore wind, and a combined energy of 6880. That’s exceptional for experienced surfers, but it’s huge, and the period is a bit shorter at 11 seconds, so it’ll be a heavy, fast wave. Not for the faint-hearted.

So, overall, the first week is a write-off. The best bet is the morning of Monday the 20th for a clean, fun size. But the real standout, the one that’s a proper event, is the morning of Friday the 31st of July and the morning of Sunday the 2nd of August. Both are big, expert-only, and clean. Get on it if you’ve got the nerve.

Rusty.

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