Surf Forecasts:
Blue Bay surf forecast from 16 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 17 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 9s period, SSE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 17 Sep, 1AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 11s period, S swell with 3,036 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 17 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 9s period with SSE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Blue Bay this week:
The surf forecast for Blue Bay over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 17) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.0m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 13s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Blue Bay in the next 16 days are 3.5m 11s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 17) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 10s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 19) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Thu 17th Sep) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 9s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Thu 17th Sep) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 9s |
| Most Powerful | 1AM (Thu 17th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 11s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Blue Bay over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let's break down Blue Bay for the next couple weeks. To be honest, the first week is a mixed bag, but there’s one morning you don’t want to miss.
We start with some serious size – 3.5m south swell rolling in on Wednesday the 16th, with a combined energy reading of 2105, meaning it’s packing a punch. The wind is blowing 30 km/h from the SSW, cross-off, so waves have shape but it’s going to be messy. Water temp is 18°, which is normal for this time of year. That big swell is only for experienced surfers; it’s not a beginner’s day. Things stay rough through Thursday the 17th with similar size but still messy winds.
The real standout, and I mean the only time to drop everything and go, is Friday morning the 18th. The swell drops to 5ft from the south, still a nice solid wave, and the wind goes glassy – absolutely dead calm. That’s the morning to be out there. Clean, peeling reef waves, moderate energy at 432. Everything lines up. The afternoon gets a cross-on breeze and turns choppy, so make the morning session count.
From Saturday the 19th, the swell tanks to 2ft on a long 15-second period – that’s an old groundswell, slow and fat. Light offshore wind in the morning will keep it clean, but the energy is weak at 137, so it’s really small and ordinary. Sunday the 20th and onward goes into a long, flat stretch. Waves stay tiny – 2ft to 4ft – but the wind is mostly cross-on, making it choppy and unappealing. This poor run lasts well into the following week.
We get a few better moments: Tuesday morning the 29th with 4ft and a light cross-off, and Wednesday the 30th with 3ft and clean offshore wind, but these are just average days. Nothing special.
So here’s the deal: the first week has size but the wind ruins most of it. The absolute best session in this whole window is Friday morning the 18th – glassy, 5ft, clean. Get on it. The rest is mostly waiting.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Fri morning, min 10°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the S on Wed afternoon, calm by Fri morning). | Days 4-6 Weather SummarySome drizzle, heaviest during Mon night. Warm (max 26°C on Sat morning, min 14°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | Sunday 20 | Monday 21 | Tuesday 22 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 10 | S 10 | S 11 | S 10 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | S 9 | S 10 | S 9 | S 15 | S 10 | S 10 | S 10 | S 19 | S 18 | S 11 | S 12 | SSE 8 | SSE 8 | SSE 7 | ESE 7 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 2095 | 2738 | 3036 | 2186 | 960 | 528 | 318 | 347 | 211 | 116 | 113 | 69 | 206 | 256 | 304 | 157 | 584 | 485 | 212 | 295 | 603 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-on | off | glassy | cross-on | off | cross-off | on | off | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | glassy | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on |
High Tide | 11:13AM1.40m | 11:39PM1.01m | 11:59AM1.34m | 00:34AM0.92m | 12:55PM1.27m | 1:48AM0.86m | 2:04PM1.24m | 3:16AM0.87m | 3:16PM1.25m | 4:27AM0.92m | 4:18PM1.29m | 5:17AM1.00m | 5:08PM1.36m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 5:51PM0.39m | 5:18AM0.46m | 6:50PM0.46m | 6:02AM0.54m | 8:03PM0.50m | 7:03AM0.59m | 9:21PM0.50m | 8:23AM0.62m | 10:27PM0.45m | 9:41AM0.59m | 11:15PM0.38m | 10:43AM0.53m | 11:53PM0.30m | ||||||||
 | |  | |  |  | | | | | | | | | | |  |  |  | | | |
 | 5:52 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:48 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — |
 | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:49 | — | — | 5:49 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 |
Temp °C | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 26 | 24 | 23 | 25 | 21 | 24 | 26 | 17 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
Feels °C | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 16 | 22 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 17 | 21 | 23 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 12 | ENE 13 | E 13 | S 10 | SSE 9 | SSE 9 | S 9 | S 10 | S 9 | SSW 10 | S 10 | S 10 | S 10 | S 9 | S 18 | S 11 | NE 5 | S 12 | SSE 8 | SSE 7 | S 10 |
| kJ | 6 | 16 | 3 | 1796 | 960 | 528 | 318 | 347 | 211 | 157 | 113 | 69 | 206 | 119 | 304 | 157 | 1 | 172 | 212 | 225 | 123 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 15 | — | — | E 13 | S 19 | E 13 | SE 7 | SE 7 | SE 8 | S 15 | S 15 | S 17 | S 4 | S 19 | S 7 | SSE 17 | E 11 | S 19 | S 11 | S 11 | S 19 |
| kJ | 4 | — | — | 3 | 7 | 3 | 54 | 53 | 31 | 116 | 72 | 23 | 3 | 256 | 39 | 55 | 2 | 7 | 199 | 267 | 273 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | E 13 | S 19 | S 18 | S 18 | S 16 | SE 8 | SE 8 | ESE 7 | S 18 | E 11 | S 11 | N 3 | — | NE 5 | S 17 | S 17 | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | 3 | 7 | 60 | 96 | 125 | 21 | 10 | 5 | 58 | 3 | 79 | 1 | — | 1 | 92 | 135 | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 10 | S 10 | S 11 | S 10 | — | — | — | — | W 2 | WNW 3 | — | — | — | ENE 3 | WSW 3 | NW 3 | S 12 | SSE 8 | — | SSE 7 | ESE 7 |
| kJ | 2095 | 2738 | 3036 | 2186 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 4 | — | — | — | 6 | 1 | 2 | 584 | 485 | — | 295 | 603 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 776 | 776 | 205 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 63 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 146 | 180 | 166 | 180 | 198 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Newcastle | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Blue Bay Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Blue Bay provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Blue Bay can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Blue Bay surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Blue Bay) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Blue Bay may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
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