
Surf Forecasts:
Blue Bay surf forecast from 16 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 20 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 10s period, ENE swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Friday 24 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 9s period, S swell with 1,731 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 17 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 7s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Blue Bay this week:
The surf forecast for Blue Bay over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 17) at 7AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.0m and 7s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 8s. Another secondary swell of 0.9m and 6s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Blue Bay in the next 16 days are 3.5m 9s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 24) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 6s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 23) at 10PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 7AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 7s |
| Best Surf | 4AM (Mon 20th Jul) | 6ft (1.8m) 10s |
| Most Powerful | 4AM (Fri 24th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Blue Bay over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let me tell you how it's looking. The only real game in town for the whole sixteen days is Blue Bay, and it's a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got a run of poor conditions to start, but there’s a couple of windows that are worth getting excited about. The water temp here is sitting about average for the time of year, which is no surprise.
The first few days are a write-off. Friday the 17th through Sunday the 19th are all poor to marginal, with onshore winds and messy conditions. Swell is there but it’s not worth paddling out for. The energy is weak at first, climbing to moderate by Sunday, but the wind just ruins it.
Then we get a real treat. Monday morning, the 20th of July, is the standout. The wind goes glassy, with a clean 6ft swell from the ENE. The period is a solid 10 seconds, so there’s some good shape and power in the water. The combined energy is moderate (791), and with the offshore wind, it’s going to be smooth. This is the one to circle on your calendar.
Tuesday morning the 21st is also a good option, with clean 5ft waves and glassy conditions, but the energy is a bit lower (438). Still a fun session.
Things drop off again through the middle of the week. Thursday the 23rd afternoon has a clean 3ft wave with offshore wind, but it’s small and weak, so only worth it if you’re desperate.
Then we get a big pulse from the south. Friday the 24th of July sees a solid 10ft swell roll in, but the wind is cross-off and the conditions are described as marginal. The energy is very strong (2068), but at that size, it’s for experts only. Saturday morning the 25th is cleaner with 6ft and offshore wind, offering a better shaped wave.
Sunday the 26th morning brings another big 8ft swell from the south, with strong energy (2001) and clean cross-off wind. Again, this is a powerful, expert-level wave.
The real long-range standout is Monday morning, the 27th of July. A 5ft SE swell with a very long period of 12 seconds, and clean cross-off wind. The energy is strong (826) and the quality should be excellent. This is a promising one, but it’s a week and a half out, so keep an eye on it.
After that, it’s a slow fade into smaller, less clean conditions through the end of the month and into August. The wave energy drops off, and the wind turns onshore again, with some lumpy, poor surf by the 31st.
So, the best on offer is Monday the 20th for a clean, user-friendly session, and Monday the 27th for a more powerful, quality groundswell if you can wait. The rest of the time, you’re better off leaving the board in the car.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 11mm), heaviest on Thu night. Very mild (max 17°C on Sat morning, min 15°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 20°C on Wed afternoon, min 13°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 7 | S 7 | E 6 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ESE 8 | E 11 | E 11 | E 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 9 | ENE 10 | ENE 9 | ENE 9 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
183 | 78 | 84 | 111 | 176 | 232 | 804 | 1144 | 832 | 667 | 641 | 551 | 512 | 373 | 318 | 253 | 210 | 207 | 119 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-off | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross-on | cross-on | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | off | cross | cross-on | cross-off |
High Tide | 10:32AM1.23m | 10:29PM1.67m | 11:20AM1.25m | 11:15PM1.51m | 12:09PM1.27m | 00:01AM1.34m | 12:59PM1.28m | 00:51AM1.17m | 1:51PM1.29m | 1:47AM1.03m | 2:45PM1.31m | 2:54AM0.93m | |||||||
Low Tide | 4:28AM-0.02m | 4:07PM0.28m | 5:10AM0.04m | 5:01PM0.35m | 5:51AM0.13m | 5:59PM0.42m | 6:30AM0.22m | 7:01PM0.48m | 7:10AM0.31m | 8:11PM0.52m | 7:53AM0.39m | 9:27PM0.53m | |||||||
— | 6:54 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | |
— | — | 5:05 | — | — | 5:05 | — | — | 5:06 | — | — | 5:06 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:07 | — | |
mm | 7 | 2 | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 18 |
Feels °C | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 15 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 7 | E 6 | S 6 | S 11 | S 10 | S 10 | E 11 | E 11 | E 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 9 | ENE 10 | ENE 9 | ENE 9 |
183 | 78 | 26 | 55 | 49 | 46 | 804 | 1144 | 832 | 667 | 641 | 551 | 512 | 373 | 318 | 253 | 210 | 207 | 119 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 8 | S 7 | S 8 | S 5 | S 21 | S 20 | S 9 | S 17 | S 16 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | S 11 | S 11 | S 11 | S 10 | S 10 | S 10 | ENE 5 |
12 | 72 | 21 | 14 | 35 | 31 | 25 | 95 | 125 | 162 | 141 | 136 | 84 | 57 | 55 | 31 | 30 | 17 | 24 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 18 | S 16 | S 11 | S 21 | — | S 15 | SSE 19 | S 8 | S 8 | SE 16 | SE 15 | SE 15 | SE 14 | SE 14 | S 15 | S 14 | S 13 | — | S 11 |
25 | 21 | 21 | 9 | — | 4 | 69 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 17 | 4 | 3 | — | 20 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 6 | — | E 6 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ESE 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NE 3 | NW 2 |
48 | — | 84 | 111 | 176 | 232 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | 1 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 11 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 35 | 35 | 41 | 26 | 11 | 26 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 0 | 0 | 43 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Newcastle | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Blue Bay Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Blue Bay provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Blue Bay can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Blue Bay surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Blue Bay) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Blue Bay may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.










