Surf Forecasts:
Blue Bay surf forecast from 16 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 17 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 11s period, S swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 23 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 9s period, S swell with 377 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 17 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 11s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Blue Bay this week:
The surf forecast for Blue Bay over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 17) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.9m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 6s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Blue Bay in the next 16 days are 1.6m 9s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 23) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.0m 5s period and expected on Saturday (Aug 22) at 1PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1AM (Mon 17th Aug) | 3ft (0.9m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Mon 17th Aug) | 3ft (0.9m) 11s |
| Most Powerful | 1AM (Sun 23rd Aug) | 5ft (1.6m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Blue Bay over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, mates, Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at the forecast for Blue Bay. It’s a bit of a mixed bag for the next couple of weeks, so let’s break it down.
We start off with a bit of a flat, messy spell. The water's sitting at about 63° which is pretty much normal for this time of year. The swell we’ve got is weak, with combined energy readings mostly in the low hundreds (402, 348, 224) – nothing that’s going to get the heart racing. For the first few days, the wind is mostly cross-onshore or onshore, and the waves are under 5ft. It’s pretty poor out there. We’ll see some surfable, but very ordinary, conditions on Monday the 17th with a 3ft south swell, but honestly, it’s not worth getting too excited about.
The middle of the week is much the same story. The swell stays small, mostly under 4ft, with weak energy (214, 155, 88). The winds stay messy with occasional clean moments, but the sets are few and far between. There are a few days here with no real reason to paddle out. It’s a bit of a dead spell.
Now, looking ahead, things start to get interesting on Sunday the 23rd. The morning shows some promise with a clean 6ft south swell, with energy jumping to 571. The wind is light and cross-offshore, which is a big plus. That’s going to be the first real standout of the period. Sure, the afternoon turns a bit messy, but that morning session is the one to target.
The following week offers a few more glimmers of hope. Monday the 24th has a clean 3ft south swell, but it's nothing major. The real big one is on Tuesday the 25th. The morning brings a solid 8ft south swell with a long 11-second period, and the energy is strong at 1345. Winds are cross-offshore and clean. This is a proper swell for the more experienced surfers – this size can be a bit much for beginners, but for those who know what they’re doing, it's going to be pumping. The afternoon, however, jumps up to 10ft with a 13-second period and a fresh cross-shore wind, making it a real challenge and only for experts. The water will be a bit lumpy, so it’s not for the faint of heart. This Tuesday the 25th is the clear standout for the whole forecast period.
After that, there’s a bit of a drop-off. Wednesday the 26th is still surfable with a 6ft south swell, but the energy drops and the winds get stronger. It’s still clean-ish in the morning, but not with the same quality. The following days just fade away, with the swell dropping to under 3ft and the energy getting weak and inconsistent. The last few days of the month and into September look pretty flat, so if you want your waves, you’re looking at the 23rd and especially the 25th.
Keep an eye on that Sunday the 23rd and Tuesday the 25th. Those are your windows.
Rusty out.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Sun morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Sun morning, min 14°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummarySome drizzle, heaviest during Wed night. Very mild (max 19°C on Thu morning, min 14°C on Wed night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 16 | Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 6 | SE 7 | S 11 | S 10 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | SE 7 | ESE 11 | ESE 6 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 7 | E 6 | NE 6 | E 6 | ENE 6 | ENE 7 | ENE 7 | S 5 | S 9 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
175 | 183 | 189 | 116 | 88 | 88 | 120 | 77 | 113 | 80 | 237 | 137 | 62 | 84 | 100 | 38 | 32 | 48 | 25 | 56 | 377 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | glassy | cross | on | on | on | on | glassy | glassy | on | cross-off | cross | cross-on | glassy | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 10:39AM1.38m | 10:43PM1.39m | 11:21AM1.37m | 11:25PM1.23m | 12:04PM1.35m | 00:11AM1.08m | 12:53PM1.32m | 1:06AM0.96m | 1:49PM1.28m | 2:17AM0.88m | 2:54PM1.27m | 3:41AM0.86m | 4:00PM1.29m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 4:39PM0.29m | 5:00AM0.19m | 5:30PM0.36m | 5:34AM0.29m | 6:26PM0.44m | 6:11AM0.39m | 7:30PM0.50m | 6:54AM0.47m | 8:46PM0.53m | 7:49AM0.53m | 10:05PM0.51m | 8:59AM0.56m | 11:09PM0.46m | ||||||||
6:31 | — | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | |
— | 5:24 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | |
mm | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 19 | 19 | 16 | 18 | 19 | 16 | 17 | 14 | 14 |
Feels °C | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 17 | S 12 | ESE 6 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | S 8 | S 11 | SE 7 | ESE 8 | ESE 6 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 7 | E 10 | ENE 6 | E 6 | ENE 6 | ENE 7 | ENE 7 | ENE 7 | S 9 |
147 | 69 | 75 | 91 | 88 | 35 | 85 | 77 | 113 | 80 | 237 | 137 | 62 | 2 | 59 | 38 | 32 | 48 | 25 | 26 | 377 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 12 | S 18 | S 11 | S 10 | S 9 | S 12 | E 9 | S 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | S 8 | S 8 | E 11 | S 14 | E 10 | S 11 | S 11 | N 3 | S 9 | S 9 | ENE 7 |
26 | 96 | 189 | 116 | 80 | 44 | 6 | 56 | 111 | 80 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 18 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | SSE 6 | S 14 | SSW 13 | ENE 10 | SE 15 | ESE 14 | S 10 | S 9 | — | E 12 | E 11 | — | S 12 | E 10 | SE 7 | S 10 | E 6 | S 18 | S 16 |
20 | 10 | 16 | 34 | 53 | 18 | 9 | 71 | 47 | 26 | — | 3 | 9 | — | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 5 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 6 | SE 7 | — | — | — | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | E 6 | — | — | ENE 5 | — | NNW 2 | E 6 | NE 6 | NNW 3 | NNW 2 | WNW 3 | SSW 5 | S 5 | — |
175 | 183 | — | — | — | 88 | 120 | 30 | — | — | 18 | — | 1 | 84 | 100 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 56 | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 166 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 26 | 26 | 81 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 137 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 124 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Newcastle | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
- Map Icons:
Break
Live Wave Height (m)
Live Wind Speed (km/h)
Surf Rating (10 Max)
Ocean Swells (m)
Wind Speed (km/h)
Information about the Blue Bay Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Blue Bay provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Blue Bay can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Blue Bay surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Blue Bay) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Blue Bay may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.











