Blue Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break it down.

The outlook is a long, quiet stretch. The first real surf worth talking about doesn’t arrive until Wednesday, July 15th. Before that, Monday and Tuesday are flat out—don’t even bother.

The best call by far is Wednesday morning, July 15th, at Blue Bay. You’ve got a 8ft swell from the south, with a 10-second period. The combined energy is strong at 2297, so there’s some serious juice. Winds are cross-off from the southwest, so the surface should be clean. But this is a reef break that’s inconsistent and rarely breaks, so it’s a gamble. At this size, it’s only for experts—beginners stay out. The afternoon drops to 8ft from the south, but the wind turns cross-shore and gets choppier, so the morning is the one.

Thursday July 16th has 6-6ft south swell, but the period drops to 8 seconds, and the energy drops to around 449-467. Winds are still cross-off but stronger, with a fresh breeze in the afternoon. It’s surfable, but not as good.

From Friday July 17th onward, we’re in a long decline. Most days show waves under 3ft, with onshore or cross-shore winds, showers, and poor conditions. There’s a small clean window on Monday July 20th morning—a 5ft east-northeast swell with a 10-second period, and light offshore wind from the west-northwest. That’s clean but small, with energy at 415. Not a standout, just a “maybe.”

The water temp is about average for this time of year.

A heads-up: on Wednesday morning, that 8ft swell with a 10-second period might be a bit fat at this reef, but it’s your best bet. Crowds are only *sometimes* an issue at Blue Bay, so you might get lucky. But remember, this spot is inconsistent—it doesn’t break often.

The last few days, from July 24th to 28th, are tiny—1.0ft to 3ft—with some clean moments but nothing worth paddling out for.

The one true standout: Wednesday July 15th morning at Blue Bay. That’s your shot.

Rusty.

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