Blue Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a long, hard look at what Blue Bay has got cookin’ for us over the next couple of weeks.

First, the overall pattern. We’ve got a bit of a slow start here. The next couple of days are looking pretty average, but don’t lose hope. There’s a real pulse of energy building for the following week, and the back half of this outlook is where things get properly interesting. Hold tight.

Right, so this Friday morning (3rd July) is a write-off. Tiny 2 ft NE windswell with a short 7-second period and a cross-offshore breeze. Just 35 on the combined energy scale – that’s weak as. Not worth paddling for.

We stay flat through the afternoon, but Saturday morning (4th July) things change. A new 4 ft S swell rolls in, with a solid 12-second period. The combined energy jumps to 418, a moderate pulse, and it’s clean. That’s your first real window. Blue Bay is a reef break, so that longer period swell will wrap in nicely. The wind is light, cross-offshore, and it’s gonna be clean. The water is sitting at 67°, which is about 2° warmer than usual for this time of year – a little treat.

Sunday (5th July) gets chunky. We’re looking at 10 ft from the south, but it’s blown out by strong SSW winds in the morning. That’s big for most, over 8 ft, so experts only here. Combined energy is a huge 2116 (strong). The afternoon brings rain and the same wind, so it’s lumpy, messy cross-shore. Not your day.

Monday and Tuesday (6th & 7th July) hold plenty of swell, still 8 ft to 8 ft, but the wind is cross or cross-onshore. Decent energy, 1243 and 1527 respectively, but the conditions are just not clean enough to call it a standout.

Now, here’s where we get interesting. Wednesday morning (8th July) is a real gem. 7 ft SE swell, period 10 seconds, combined energy 932 (moderate). The wind is a gentle cross-offshore from the SW and it’s clean. That’s gonna be fun, lined-up waves for the intermediate crew. Crowds are listed as ‘sometimes’, so you might have the place to yourself if you get out early.

Friday (10th July) morning drops back a bit to 4 ft, but it’s clean again. A good option if you missed the earlier windows.

Saturday (11th July) morning offers a touch more magic. 4 ft SE swell with a 9-second period and glassy offshore conditions from the west. The energy is 280 – not huge, but with the wind that clean, it’ll be a fun, user-friendly wave. This is a legitimate choice for a relaxed session.

After that, the surf dies right down. Sunday (12th) through Tuesday (14th) morning are all tiny and weak, with energy numbers below 100. There’s a four-day gap of nothing special.

Then, bam. Tuesday afternoon (14th July) the south swell returns. 6 ft S swell, 10-second period, and a solid offshore wind. Energy 665 (moderate). This is the start of the main event.

Wednesday (15th July) morning is a treat: 7 ft S swell, 10 seconds, clean with light offshore winds. By the afternoon, it’s a proper standout. 10 ft of pure south groundswell, period reaching 13 seconds. Combined energy is a massive 3555. The wind is a whisper-light offshore – glassy. This is excellent, powerful surf for experienced surfers. The long period will make it grind perfectly down the reef. This is your top pick.

The energy peaks on Thursday (16th July). Morning sees 13 ft S swell with a 13-second period and energy at 5040. The afternoon holds 12 ft with energy 4189. This is big, strong, and clean. For experts only, but it will be unforgettable.

Friday morning (17th July) still pumps at 8 ft S swell, 13-second period, energy 1852. Still clean.

Sadly, the run ends with a thud. Friday afternoon (17th July) through to Saturday (18th July) gets smashed by heavy rain and strong cross-onshore winds from the SE. The swell is still there, but it’s blown out, lumpy, and dangerous. A real shame.

So, to sum it up: Saturday morning (4th July) is your first good call for a clean start. Wednesday morning (8th July) is a solid mid-range treat. But the absolute standout, the one to circle on the calendar, is Wednesday afternoon (15th July) through Thursday (16th July). That’s the big, clean, powerful south groundswell. It’s a long way off, so don’t get too attached, but if it holds, it’s gonna be epic. For experts only at that size though.

Stay safe out there.

Rusty.

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