Blue Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty checkin’ in from Blue Bay.

Look, I won’t sugarcoat it – the first week or so is a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got a pulse of solid size mid-week, but the winds and conditions are gonna make you work for it. The water temp is sitting at about 66°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there. The real standout window, if you’re patient, is looking like the very end of the run, around the 23rd of July.

Wednesday morning (8th July) kicks things off with a bit of a thumping 8ft SE swell, period around 11 seconds. That’s a solid amount of energy (1853) for the reef at Blue Bay, but it’s coming with a stiff SSW cross-off breeze. It’ll be clean on the face, but a bit bumpy. It’s surfable for an intermediate, but it ain’t gonna be perfect. The afternoon stays similar, just a touch smaller.

Thursday morning (9th) sees the swell drop to a more manageable 6ft from the SE, and the wind lightens up to a light breeze from the SW. The combined energy drops but it’s still got some punch (846). This is probably the cleanest, most user-friendly window for the first few days. By afternoon, the wind swings SSE and goes cross, messing up the lineup.

Friday (10th) through Sunday (12th) is a slow fade. Swell drops each day from 5ft on Friday down to a tiny 2ft by Sunday afternoon. Winds on Saturday look alright – light offshores – but there’s just not enough push. Sunday’s got proper offshore wind (15-18 mph), but the swell is gutless (energy down to 62). You’d be paddling for nothing.

We hit a real lull from Monday 13th through Wednesday 15th. Swell is below 3ft, and the energy readings are pathetic (sub-100). You're looking at a couple of days where you can leave the board in the car.

Then there’s a weird spike of wind and messy swell around Thursday 16th and Friday 17th. The swell jumps back up (6ft on Thursday afternoon), but it’s getting smashed by near-gale force winds (31 mph). The energy (392) says there’s something there, but for a paddle surfer, that’s a washing machine. That setup looks way more interesting for kite surfing than trying to paddle out.

Things start to look interesting again on Saturday 18th. The morning is still a bit windy, but come afternoon we see a clean 5ft E swell with a light S breeze. That’s a decent afternoon sesh for a Friday.

Sunday 19th morning is a gem. You’ve got clean 5ft S swell with a whisper-light offshore breeze from the WNW. It’s not huge, but it’ll be glassy and fun. The wind shifts onshore in the arvo and ruins it.

The real highlight, though, is shaping up for Monday 20th morning. A solid 7ft ESE swell with an 11-second period rolls in. Combined energy is pumping at 1240. The wind is a cross-off from the NW, keeping it clean. This is good, solid groundswell. It’s a bit over the 5ft mark, so it’s not for beginners, but for intermediates and above, that’s a proper session.

But the best bet of the whole outlook – if you’re an experienced surfer – is Wednesday 23rd July. That forecast is showing a 8ft S swell with a 13-second period, swinging up to 12ft in the afternoon. The energy reading hits a massive 4301. That’s proper, strong, very long-period groundswell. The wind is moderate cross-shore from the south, so it’ll have a bit of shape to it. This is expert territory, mate. Over 8ft on a reef is not a place for the faint-hearted. But for those with the skills, that’s the day to circle on the calendar. It’s a long way out, so forecasts can wobble, but right now, that’s the one.

Stay safe out there.

Rusty.

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