Blue Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right off the bat, we’re looking at a bit of a flat spell with some clean windows and some real duds mixed in. The first few days are a classic shoulder-season puzzle: there’s swell around, but the wind and conditions are going to be the deciding factor.

Tuesday the 8th kicks things off with a cross-on breeze and 7ft of SSE swell at Blue Bay. The energy is moderate (599), but the surface is going to be fairly choppy. Not the one to get excited about.

Wednesday the 9th is a cleaner but smaller story. The morning has a light cross-off wind with 4ft S swell, and it’s looking clean. It’s ordinary, surfable waves – a morning session for the patient. The afternoon turns ugly with a strong cross-shore and bumpy 8ft surf, so you’ll want to be out of the water by then.

Thursday the 10th brings a bigger push. The morning sees 8ft S swell with a cross-off breeze, and it’s clean. The energy is solid (1294), and this is a real contender – nicely shaped but with enough size to get your heart pumping. For the average surfer, this is getting big; for the crew who like it hollow, this is where it’s at. The afternoon backs off slightly to 8ft but the cross-chop builds.

Friday the 11th is the pick of the first week, in my book. Morning has 7ft of S swell with a cross-off wind, and it’s clean. The energy is still decent (768), and this is your best bet for a proper, lined-up reef session at Blue Bay. It’s a consistent spot when it’s on, even if it’s usually inconsistent, but this looks like a good day to be there. Crowds are a possibility, so get in early.

Saturday the 12th sees the swell dropping to 4ft with a morning onshore flow, so it’s not doing us any favors. The afternoon turns to chop. Sunday the 13th is small and wind-affected – not worth the paddle.

Monday the 14th has a glassy morning, but only 3ft of S swell at 12 seconds. It’s clean but the energy is weak (207). A longboard and a quiet water session.

Tuesday the 15th is a no-go – cross-shore winds and building, messy surf. Wednesday the 16th has light winds and a longer-period swell (12s) but still small and weak.

Here’s the standout for the second week: Thursday the 17th might not be for the faint-hearted. The morning has 4ft S swell, but it’s the Friday the 18th morning that grabs my attention. A clean cross-off breeze with 3ft S swell at 12 seconds, and the energy is low (301), but the quality is there. This is a textbook, clean reef wave.

But the real jewel in the crown is Saturday the 19th morning. The swell is only 2ft, but it’s a very long period (17 seconds) groundswell, and the wind is light and cross-off. The energy is weak (302), but this will be smooth, glassy, and long-period perfection. For a reef like Blue Bay, this is a day for the connoisseur. Sunday the 20th morning looks similar – clean with a gentle offshore wind – and is a solid backup.

After that, it fades. The end of the window on Monday the 21st has a fun early push, but by Tuesday the 22nd it’s mostly small and onshore, and the window closes out with some very weak, disorganized energy. The water temp is right around average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

So, for the best of it: Friday the 11th is your main event this week. And if you can wait, that Saturday the 19th morning looks like pure magic, even if it's a few days out. Just don't blink.

Rusty

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