Surf Forecasts:
Blue Bay surf forecast from 16 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 17 Aug, 4AM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 11s period, S swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 19 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 10s period, ESE swell with 210 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 17 Aug, 4AM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 11s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Blue Bay this week:
The surf forecast for Blue Bay over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Aug 17) at 4AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.9m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 1.1m and 7s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Blue Bay in the next 16 days are 1.1m 10s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.5m 10s period and expected on Monday (Aug 24) at 1AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4AM (Mon 17th Aug) | 3ft (0.9m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 4AM (Mon 17th Aug) | 3ft (0.9m) 11s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Wed 19th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 10s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Blue Bay over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let's get into it. This is Rusty checkin' in from Blue Bay.
Let me level with you – for the next week or so, Blue Bay is lookin' pretty grim. The swell is weak and jumbled, and the wind is mostly messin' things up. We've got a long stretch of poor surf conditions from now through to the end of August, with only a few brief windows for a paddle. But hold on – there's light at the end of the tunnel.
Starting off Monday the 17th, it's rain showers with onshore wind at 6 mph, and the swell sits at 4 ft from the ESE with a short 7-second period, giving us a weak 248 combined energy. It's rough. Tuesday the 18th is more of the same – onshore breeze, messy waves. Not worth wettin' a wetsuit.
Now, Wednesday morning the 19th is a little teaser. We get a glassy, calm morning with the wind swingin' SSW at just 3 mph. The swell drops to 2 ft from the ESE, period bumpin' up to 10 seconds, energy at 188 – it's surfable but very ordinary. Still, you might snag a clean little wave if you're desperate.
Thursday the 20th through the weekend is a write-off – tiny 1 ft to 3 ft slop, choppy or cross-onshore winds, and barely any energy (down to 19 on Saturday morning). Sunday the 23rd shows brief glassy conditions with a tiny 1 ft wave, but the period is 8 seconds – you'd be fightin' for scraps.
The standout window finally arrives around Tuesday the 25th. Tuesday morning we see a proper pulse of swell – 5 ft from the south, 9-second period, and a strong 421 combined energy. The wind is off from the west at 6 mph, so it's clean. This is the best on offer – real waves with shape, and it should be good for intermediates. Watch the afternoon though – the wind swings onshore and the swell drops a little, and the energy jumps to 680, but the cross-on breeze messes with the quality.
Wednesday the 26th through Thursday the 27th still has clean swell from the south around 3 ft to 4 ft with an 11-second period and moderate to fresh offshore winds from the west (up to 22 mph). The energy is strong, between 300 and 594. But the forecast says marginal surf conditions – likely due to tide issues or that strong wind makin' it a bit tricky. It's clean, but it might be more of a challenge than a cruise.
After that, we fade back into small, weak surf through to the start of September. No real standouts in that last week – just tiny waves with the odd clean moment.
If you're a beginner, watch out for that 5 ft swell on the 25th – it's a bit much for learnin'. The crowds at Blue Bay are "sometimes" a factor, so you might have company if you're there on the good days.
Water temp is about average for this time of year – nothin' wild to report.
This is Rusty, signin' off. Keep your eyes on the horizon.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Sun night. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon morning, min 13°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Very mild (max 19°C on Thu morning, min 13°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 11 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | S 11 | ESE 7 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | E 9 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | NE 6 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
189 | 132 | 113 | 141 | 85 | 115 | 116 | 90 | 210 | 162 | 75 | 41 | 68 | 53 | 30 | 22 | 15 | 16 | 10 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | glassy | on | cross-on | on | on | on | glassy | glassy | on | cross-off | cross | cross-on | off | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | off |
High Tide | 10:43PM1.39m | 11:21AM1.37m | 11:25PM1.23m | 12:04PM1.35m | 00:11AM1.08m | 12:53PM1.32m | 1:06AM0.96m | 1:49PM1.28m | 2:17AM0.88m | 2:54PM1.27m | 3:41AM0.86m | 4:00PM1.29m | |||||||
Low Tide | 5:00AM0.19m | 5:30PM0.36m | 5:34AM0.29m | 6:26PM0.44m | 6:11AM0.39m | 7:30PM0.50m | 6:54AM0.47m | 8:46PM0.53m | 7:49AM0.53m | 10:05PM0.51m | 8:59AM0.56m | 11:09PM0.46m | |||||||
— | 6:31 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | |
— | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | |
mm | 1 | 1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | 2 |
Temp °C | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 16 | 16 |
Feels °C | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 16 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 6 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | S 8 | SE 7 | ESE 7 | ESE 8 | ESE 6 | ESE 10 | E 9 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | NE 6 |
75 | 132 | 113 | 35 | 84 | 115 | 116 | 72 | 210 | 162 | 75 | 41 | 68 | 53 | 30 | 22 | 15 | 16 | 10 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 11 | S 10 | S 9 | S 12 | S 11 | S 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | S 8 | S 8 | E 11 | E 10 | S 13 | S 11 | SSE 7 | S 5 | S 5 | S 5 | S 6 |
189 | 116 | 104 | 44 | 85 | 56 | 113 | 90 | 22 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 6 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | ESE 11 | E 9 | ESE 14 | S 10 | S 9 | S 15 | E 12 | — | S 14 | — | — | S 11 | SE 7 | SE 7 | S 9 | S 8 |
16 | 63 | 53 | 12 | 6 | 71 | 48 | 26 | 4 | 3 | — | 4 | — | — | 9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | ESE 7 | E 6 | — | — | — | — | N 3 | — | ENE 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | WNW 3 |
— | — | — | 141 | 30 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 26 | 41 | 26 | 63 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 229 | 146 | 229 | 219 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Newcastle | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Blue Bay Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Blue Bay provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Blue Bay can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Blue Bay surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Blue Bay) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Blue Bay may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.











