Surf Forecasts:
Blue Bay surf forecast from 16 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 19 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 11s period, ESE swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 19 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 9s period, ESE swell with 216 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 19 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 11s period with ESE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Blue Bay this week:
The surf forecast for Blue Bay over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.9m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 11s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Blue Bay in the next 16 days are 1.1m 9s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.4m 12s period and expected on Monday (Aug 17) at 7PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1AM (Wed 19th Aug) | 2.5ft (0.7m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Wed 19th Aug) | 2.5ft (0.7m) 11s |
| Most Powerful | 7PM (Wed 19th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Blue Bay over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, let’s get into it. It’s Rusty here, and I’ve got the lowdown for Blue Bay. Honestly, the next couple of weeks are a bit of a mixed bag, so don't get too amped just yet.
The start of this stretch is pretty grim. We’re looking at small, junky waves with onshore winds messing things up through Monday and Tuesday. There’s some swell, but it’s short-period and chopped up, so it’s not going to be worth your time. We're looking at a few days of nothing but closeout slop before things start to settle down.
The first real glimmer of hope comes mid-week. Wednesday morning, we’ve got a drop in wind to dead glassy conditions, but the surf is still pretty average. The swell’s only about `2ft` at `10s` from the ESE, with moderate energy (199). It’s clean, but it’s just not doing much. This is a "maybe get a couple of fun ones if you’re desperate" kind of deal, not a call-out.
After that, we go right back into a poor run. The wind swings onshore and the swell drops right off for a few days. The energy readings are weak, under 100 for most of Thursday and Friday. It’s a proper flat spell, so leave the boards at home for a bit.
Now, the next week-plus is where we start looking further out. For Monday the 24th, there’s a long-period pulse coming in from the South, but the swell height is tiny, just `1ft`. It’s clean with a cross-offshore breeze, but that’s not surf. It’s interesting that the period is up at `19s`, and the energy does jump to moderate (202-213), but the lack of size means it’s still not a goer.
The following week and a half is real rough. Strong winds and cross-shore chop are the story from the 25th through the 27th. We do get some cleaner morning windows, but the swell is still weak and the winds aren't quite right.
Then things get interesting for the final stretch. The morning of Thursday the 28th shows a big jump in energy, up to 655, with a `6ft` swell from the NE. But the wind is onshore and the period is a short `8s`, so it’s going to be a messy, cross-onshore mess. It’s not a day for the average surfer; if you’re an expert and want some powerful, shifty beach break, maybe, but for everyone else, it’s a skunk.
But then, the morning of Saturday the 29th is the standout. The wind goes completely glassy, and we’ve got a solid `5ft` swell from the ENE with moderate-strong energy (336) and a `9s` period. The direction is onshore, but the glassy conditions will make it clean. This is the best chance for a proper surf. It’s still a bit raw, but it will be the cleanest, most powerful surf of the whole window. For a reef break, this ENE swell isn't exactly the optimal SSE direction, but the clean conditions will make it work. This is the one to mark on the calendar.
After that, we go back to small, wind-blown dribble for the rest of the window. The final few days see the NE winds pick up hard, with strong cross-onshore breezes and small swell, so the surf quality drops right off again. It’s a frustrating pattern, but you know how it goes.
Water temp is `63°`, which is about average for this time of year, so a good wetsuit is your friend. Keep the faith; there’s always another swell. This is Rusty, signing off.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Mon morning. Very mild (max 16°C on Mon morning, min 14°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 4mm), mostly falling on Fri morning. Warm (max 20°C on Thu morning, min 12°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | Sunday 23 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 10 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 9 | E 7 | ESE 7 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | S 10 | S 5 | S 8 | NE 6 | S 17 | ENE 9 | S 10 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
116 | 113 | 135 | 128 | 118 | 116 | 90 | 210 | 101 | 70 | 37 | 66 | 30 | 20 | 16 | 14 | 33 | 12 | 28 | 30 | 44 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | cross-on | on | on | on | glassy | glassy | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-off | off | cross-off | off | cross-off | on | off | glassy | cross-on | cross |
High Tide | 11:21AM1.37m | 11:25PM1.23m | 12:04PM1.35m | 00:11AM1.08m | 12:53PM1.32m | 1:06AM0.96m | 1:49PM1.28m | 2:17AM0.88m | 2:54PM1.27m | 3:41AM0.86m | 4:00PM1.29m | 4:54AM0.89m | 4:58PM1.35m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 5:30PM0.36m | 5:34AM0.29m | 6:26PM0.44m | 6:11AM0.39m | 7:30PM0.50m | 6:54AM0.47m | 8:46PM0.53m | 7:49AM0.53m | 10:05PM0.51m | 8:59AM0.56m | 11:09PM0.46m | 10:09AM0.54m | 11:58PM0.39m | ||||||||
6:31 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | |
— | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:29 | — | |
mm | 1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 20 | 20 | 17 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 16 |
Feels °C | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | S 8 | S 11 | ESE 7 | ESE 8 | ESE 7 | ESE 10 | ESE 9 | E 7 | ESE 7 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | S 5 | S 8 | NE 4 | ENE 8 | SSW 9 | S 10 |
113 | 113 | 35 | 85 | 118 | 116 | 84 | 210 | 101 | 70 | 30 | 66 | 30 | 20 | 15 | 14 | 33 | 4 | 28 | 25 | 44 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 10 | S 9 | S 12 | E 9 | S 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | S 8 | S 8 | E 11 | E 10 | S 13 | SE 7 | S 6 | S 5 | NE 6 | NE 6 | NE 6 | S 8 | ENE 9 | ENE 8 |
116 | 80 | 25 | 6 | 56 | 113 | 90 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 19 | 30 | 27 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | ESE 11 | SE 15 | ESE 14 | S 10 | S 9 | S 15 | E 12 | — | — | — | SSW 3 | ESE 7 | S 10 | S 9 | SE 7 | S 8 | S 17 | S 16 | S 15 |
63 | 53 | 12 | 9 | 71 | 48 | 25 | 4 | 3 | — | — | — | 1 | 4 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 22 | 19 | 17 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | — | — | — | — | NE 5 | NNW 2 | ENE 4 | — | — | — | — | — | E 2 | NNE 4 | SW 3 | — | — |
— | — | 135 | 128 | — | — | — | — | 42 | 1 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 11 | 11 | 26 | 82 | 81 | 0 | 0 | 248 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 35 | 91 | 53 | 146 | 150 | 219 | 8 | 349 | 8 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Newcastle | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Blue Bay Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Blue Bay provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Blue Bay can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Blue Bay surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Blue Bay) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Blue Bay may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.











