Surf Forecasts:
Blue Bay surf forecast from 16 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 20 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 10s period, E swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 19 Jul, 10AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 11s period, ENE swell with 831 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Monday 20 Jul, 1AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 10s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Blue Bay this week:
The surf forecast for Blue Bay over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 20) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 10s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 13s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Blue Bay in the next 16 days are 1.9m 11s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 19) at 10AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.7m 3s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 23) at 7PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1AM (Mon 20th Jul) | 6ft (1.9m) 10s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Mon 20th Jul) | 6ft (1.9m) 10s |
| Most Powerful | 10AM (Sun 19th Jul) | 6ft (1.9m) 11s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Blue Bay over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let’s get into it. Blue Bay’s a reef break that doesn’t fire all that often – it’s inconsistent, so when it does come alive you want to be on it. The water’s sitting around 65°, pretty much normal for this time of year. The first few days are a write‑off: Thursday the 16th through to Sunday the 19th are plagued by poor surf, onshore winds, and messy energy. No point even paddling out. That’s a solid four‑day gap of nothing worth a look.
Then Monday the 20th morning – now we’re talking. Glassy conditions with a 6ft swell from the ENE, period a solid 10 seconds, and moderate wave energy (760). That’s clean, punchy, and perfect for an intermediate. Tuesday the 21st morning is also glassy with 5ft ENE swell, a touch less energy (498) but still a really fun session. Those two mornings are the first standouts – get in the water early before the cross‑onshore kicks in by afternoon.
After that, it goes flat and ordinary again until Friday the 24th afternoon. And holy moly – that’s the one. A 10ft S swell with an 11‑second period, 3105 combined energy, light cross‑off breeze and clean conditions. This is for experienced surfers only – too big for beginners, but for the crew who can handle it, it’ll be absolute perfection at Blue Bay. The swell direction (S) matches the optimum SSE pretty closely, and the offshore wind will keep it lined up. Just be aware it’s a sometimes‑crowded spot, so expect company.
From there the week after has a few more good windows – Tuesday the 28th morning with light offshore and 4ft S swell, and Wednesday the 29th morning with gentle offshore and the same size. Those are solid, clean options but nothing that touches the 24th. The 30th and 31st mornings also have glassy or clean conditions with similar 5‑6ft S swell, but the period drops to 8‑9 seconds so less grunt.
Overall, the absolute standout is Friday the 24th afternoon – big, clean, and powerful. Monday the 20th morning is your pick for a more moderate, glassy session. Everything else is background noise.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 19mm), heaviest on Thu afternoon. Very mild (max 17°C on Sat morning, min 15°C on Thu afternoon). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 19°C on Wed morning, min 12°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | |||||||||||||||||||
Thu 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 8 | S 7 | S 7 | E 8 | ESE 6 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | E 8 | ENE 11 | ENE 10 | E 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 9 | ENE 9 | ENE 9 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 453 | 183 | 81 | 111 | 107 | 141 | 186 | 273 | 831 | 815 | 770 | 610 | 533 | 512 | 433 | 356 | 358 | 232 | 197 | 180 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | glassy | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | on | off |
High Tide | 9:42PM1.79m | 10:32AM1.23m | 10:29PM1.67m | 11:20AM1.25m | 11:15PM1.51m | 12:09PM1.27m | 00:01AM1.34m | 12:59PM1.28m | 00:51AM1.17m | 1:51PM1.29m | 1:47AM1.03m | 2:45PM1.31m | 2:54AM0.93m | |||||||
Low Tide | 4:28AM-0.02m | 4:07PM0.28m | 5:10AM0.04m | 5:01PM0.35m | 5:51AM0.13m | 5:59PM0.42m | 6:30AM0.22m | 7:01PM0.48m | 7:10AM0.31m | 8:11PM0.52m | 7:53AM0.39m | 9:27PM0.53m | ||||||||
 |  |  | | |  | |  | | |  |  | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — |
 | 5:04 | — | — | 5:05 | — | — | 5:05 | — | — | 5:06 | — | — | 5:06 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:07 | — |
mm | 7 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 19 | 18 | 16 |
Feels °C | 12 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 17 | 15 | 13 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 8 | S 7 | S 7 | E 8 | S 11 | S 10 | ESE 7 | E 8 | ENE 11 | ENE 10 | E 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 10 | ENE 9 | ENE 9 | ENE 9 |
| kJ | 453 | 183 | 72 | 111 | 55 | 49 | 186 | 273 | 831 | 815 | 770 | 610 | 533 | 512 | 433 | 356 | 358 | 232 | 197 | 180 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 18 | E 8 | S 16 | S 6 | S 21 | S 21 | S 10 | ENE 10 | S 17 | S 16 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | S 11 | S 11 | S 10 | S 10 | S 10 | S 10 | S 11 |
| kJ | 25 | 12 | 21 | 38 | 9 | 35 | 46 | 82 | 148 | 124 | 162 | 141 | 136 | 85 | 57 | 34 | 31 | 17 | 16 | 21 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 13 | S 18 | S 16 | S 9 | — | — | S 20 | S 9 | S 8 | S 8 | SE 16 | SE 15 | SE 15 | SE 14 | SE 14 | S 15 | S 15 | S 13 | S 13 | S 14 |
| kJ | 3 | 25 | 46 | 13 | — | — | 32 | 25 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 17 | 17 | 4 | 12 | 4 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 6 | ESE 6 | E 6 | — | ESE 6 | ESE 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNE 4 | NNW 3 | — | — | — | — | NNW 3 |
| kJ | 47 | 46 | 81 | — | 107 | 141 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 13 | 2 | — | — | — | — | 3 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 57 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 35 | 124 | 41 | 41 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Newcastle | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Blue Bay Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Blue Bay provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Blue Bay can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Blue Bay surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Blue Bay) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Blue Bay may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
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