Blue Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s shaping up for Blue Bay.

We’ve got a decent little window of surf coming in, but it’s far from a classic run. The first couple of days look the most promising if you’re keen, with a solid pulse of SE swell mixing in with okay winds. The water’s sitting at 66°, pretty much normal for this time of year, so no shock to the system there.

Wednesday the 8th of July sees a 8ft SE swell rolling in, with a period of 11 seconds, so there’s some proper energy behind it (1567). The wind’s a cross-off from the SSW at 12 mph, so it’ll be clean enough but that moderate breeze will have a bit of texture on the face. It’s a reef break, pretty inconsistent here usually, so you’ll have to wait for the sets – but when they come, the shape should be alright for intermediates.

Thursday the 9th of July morning trims down a touch to 6ft from the SE, period 10 seconds, wind from the WSW at 6 mph making for a light cross-off that’ll keep things clean. Not a standout, but a solid enough option if you time the tides right.

Friday the 10th of July morning stays in the 5ft range, still SE, period around 10 seconds, cross-off breeze again – clean but nothing to write home about. It’s consistent enough through this stretch for a paddle.

Saturday the 11th of July morning drops more, down to 4ft, and the energy’s fading (427). Wind goes light cross-off from the NW, so still rideable, but you’ll be scratching for the better ones.

From Sunday the 12th of July onwards, it really dries up. The swell drops into the 2ft to 1.0ft range through the middle of the week, and the combined energy falls to just 105 then below 100. There’s a three or four day gap here where you’re looking at tiny, weak waves – honestly not worth paddling out for unless you’re desperate for a float.

Wednesday the 15th of July afternoon starts to sees a sudden pulse – 8ft from the S, but only 7 seconds period – short period, lumpy, cross-on wind, messy. Not the kind of wave you’d drive for.

Then from Thursday the 16th of July right through to around Monday the 20th of July, it gets pretty ugly. Swell bumps up to 8ft to 12ft, but it’s all short period SSE windswell, with fresh to strong cross-onshore winds from the SSE and SE at 19 to 25 mph. The energy numbers spike to over 1400, but it’ll be lumpy, choppy, and honestly more for the kite crew than anyone with a paddle. For experts only, if at all.

After that, Tuesday the 21st of July morning throws a little lifeline: 5ft SE swell, period 11 seconds, and glassy conditions with a WSW wind at just 3 mph. That’s clean, that’s the sort of window that might actually be nice if it holds. The water should still be fine, and the reef might just line up a few. Worth keeping an eye on, but it’s a way off.

For the best bet across the whole run, I’d point you to Wednesday the 8th of July afternoon at Blue Bay. You’ve got that 8ft SE swell with a good 11 second period – that’s groundswell energy, so the reef will shape it nicely – cross-off wind, and the crowd factor is only “sometimes” busy. It’s an inconsistent spot, so there’ll be lulls, but that’s when you grab the set of the day. Not a classic, but the best of a mixed bag.

Rusty.

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