Blue Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ at Blue Bay.

Honestly, the next couple of weeks are a bit of a mixed bag here. There’s a run of small, weak, and mostly messy surf to start, but the back half of the outlook does have a couple of windows where things clean up. The main event looks to be a pulse of south swell that pushes through mid-week, but it’s a bit of a bulldozer with iffy winds, so only the most experienced crew should be on it.

The first real surfable day is Wednesday, July 15th. There’s a solid 8ft south swell (moderate to strong energy at 1452) that’s got some grunt, but it’s coming in with a short 9-second period and a cross-off wind. The swell is well over 5ft, so it’s going to be a bit much for beginners, and the short period means it’ll be a bit jumbled and fat. Afternoon sees a similar 7ft south swell (1029 energy), still with a short period, so it’s a day for the strong paddlers only if you’re chasing some size.

Thursday, July 16th, the swell drops to 6ft in the morning, but the period drops to 8 seconds (470 energy) with a 25 km/h cross-off wind. It’s a messy, bumpy combo. The afternoon goes to 7ft and 30 km/h south wind; it’s blown out and not worth the paddle unless you’re on a kite.

Friday, July 17th, it drops right off to a weak 3ft south swell (137 energy) and a 7-second period. The wind is light though, so it’s clean but really small. More of a longboard or a sea kayak kind of wave.

There’s then a long stretch of poor, cross-onshore conditions from Saturday, July 18th, right through to the end of the following week. The swell stays around 5ft to 6ft with predominately onshore winds from the east or southeast, which chops the place up. The water temperature right now is 66°, which is about average for the time of year.

The standout window comes on Tuesday, July 22nd. The morning shows a glassy 5ft east swell (366 energy) with a 9-second period. The wind is from the NNW at 5 km/h and it’s dead glass. That’s the best you’ll see all fortnight – clean, perfectly manageable waves for intermediates, with a reasonable crowd likely. The swell direction is from the east, which is a touch off the optimum SSE for Blue Bay, but at that size and with glassy conditions, it’ll still offer some fun lines.

The other potential is Wednesday morning, July 23rd, with a 4ft east swell (265 energy) and a light NNE wind, but it’s cross-on and a bit smaller. The glassy Wednesday morning is the one to plan for.

Later in the window, around Saturday, July 26th, there’s a bigger 3ft east swell with a 12-second period (307 energy), but it’s coming with 25 km/h southwest winds. It’s clean, but the long period means the beach break might be a bit straight and fat. It’s a long-range call, so promising but not locked in.

Overall, keep your eyes peeled on the 22nd for the best of the lot. The rest of the time, it’s either too small, too windy, or too big and messy for the average surfer.

Rusty.

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