
Surf Forecasts:
Blue Bay surf forecast from 10 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 15 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 10s period, S swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 15 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 10s period, S swell with 949 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 10 Jul, 10PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 10s period with SE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Blue Bay this week:
The surf forecast for Blue Bay over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 10) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 10s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 19s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Blue Bay in the next 16 days are 2.2m 10s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 15) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.1m 5s period and expected on Wednesday (Jul 15) at 1AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Fri 10th Jul) | 5ft (1.6m) 10s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Wed 15th Jul) | 7ft (2.1m) 10s |
| Most Powerful | 7PM (Wed 15th Jul) | 7ft (2.2m) 10s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Blue Bay over the next 16 days.
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get one thing straight from the get-go: if you’re looking for a classic, solid session, you’ve got to be patient. The next week and a half is a game of waiting for the right moment, because the swell is going to come and go in pulses, and the wind is going to be the real deciding factor.
The first real window worth talking about kicks off on Friday, July 10th. Blue Bay is the only break on the menu, and it’s a reef setup that’s inconsistent, so keep that in mind. The water temp is sitting at 66°F, which is about average for this time of year, so nothing wild there.
That Friday afternoon, the wind goes glassy out of the SE at a whispery 3 mph. Combined swell energy is moderate (604), with a 6ft swell from the SE at a 10-second period. It’s a bit of a groundswell, and at a reef, that can mean some nice, lined-up waves. This is your best bet in the entire outlook. It’s not huge, but it’s clean, and it’s the most promising moment.
Saturday, July 11th, the morning session is a solid second choice. The wind swings NW at 6 mph, so it’s cross-offshore and clean. Swell drops to 3ft from the ESE with a 12-second period, giving it a bit more pulse (energy at 411). The afternoon turns cross-shore and a bit bumpy, so morning is your window.
Sunday, July 12th has a strong offshore wind, WNW at 19 mph, and the swell is tiny at 3ft. The energy is weak (139). It’s clean, but it’s a gutless paddle. The waves are just too small to get excited about.
After that, things go flat. From Monday, July 13th right through to Tuesday, July 21st, the swell is mostly below 3ft, with a few days where it’s practically non-existent. It’s a long, dry spell. The wind is often offshore, but there’s just no push to the water.
There is a spike on Wednesday, July 15th with a 7ft to 7ft swell from the S, but the period is a short 8-9 seconds, generating a chunky, raw energy (873). The wind is cross-shore with some chop, and the conditions are marginal. This is more of a messy, short-period storm swell, not the clean, lined-up stuff you want at a reef. It’s a pass for me.
The next real glimmer of hope comes on Thursday, July 16th. The morning is clean, with a WSW wind at 6 mph, cross-offshore. The swell is 5ft from the S at 10 seconds, with moderate energy (374). It’s a solid, surfable day. The afternoon degrades with a cross-onshore wind, so aim for the morning.
The following week, from Friday, July 17th through to Saturday, July 25th, sees mostly small, weak swells. There are a couple of mornings with clean conditions, but the wave heights are rarely above 3ft, and the energy is low. It’s a long stretch of “ordinary” at best. The period around July 18th has a 4ft, 11-second swell from the S with decent energy (470) and clean wind, which is worth a look if you’re desperate, but it’s not a standout.
To sum it up: Friday, July 10th afternoon is the only true standout. Glassy conditions, a solid 6ft groundswell, and a reef that can shape it up. If you miss that, the Saturday morning of the 11th is your next best bet. After that, you’re watching the swell charts and hoping for a change.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastSome drizzle, heaviest during Fri afternoon. Very mild (max 18°C on Sat afternoon, min 10°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (calm on Fri afternoon, fresh winds from the W by Sun morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 19°C on Mon afternoon, min 11°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Fri 10 | Saturday 11 | Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | |||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 10 | SE 10 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | SE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | SE 9 | S 10 | ESE 8 | S 11 | S 11 | S 10 | S 11 | S 8 | S 9 | S 10 | S 10 | S 9 | S 8 | S 7 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
592 | 408 | 210 | 234 | 225 | 109 | 51 | 20 | 19 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 82 | 540 | 755 | 524 | 356 | 230 | 190 | 126 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | glassy | off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | off | off | off | cross-off | off | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | off | cross-off | cross-on | off | cross-off |
High Tide | 4:26PM1.53m | 4:57AM1.05m | 5:23PM1.64m | 6:06AM1.07m | 6:19PM1.74m | 7:08AM1.11m | 7:13PM1.82m | 8:03AM1.14m | 8:04PM1.86m | 8:55AM1.18m | 8:54PM1.85m | 9:44AM1.21m | 9:42PM1.79m | 10:32AM1.23m | |||||||
Low Tide | 11:11PM0.30m | 10:38AM0.30m | 00:15AM0.17m | 11:38AM0.29m | 1:13AM0.06m | 12:36PM0.26m | 2:06AM-0.02m | 1:30PM0.24m | 2:56AM-0.06m | 2:23PM0.23m | 3:43AM-0.06m | 3:15PM0.24m | 4:28AM-0.02m | ||||||||
— | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:56 | — | — | 6:54 | — | — | 6:54 | |
5:00 | — | — | 5:00 | — | — | 5:01 | — | — | 5:01 | — | — | 5:02 | — | — | 5:02 | — | — | 5:04 | — | 5:05 | |
mm | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 18 | 19 | 12 | 18 | 19 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 15 |
Feels °C | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 15 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 14 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 10 | SE 10 | SE 9 | SE 8 | SE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | SSW 5 | S 7 | SSW 12 | SSW 9 | S 7 | SSW 7 | S 11 | S 8 | — | S 10 | S 10 | S 9 | S 8 | S 7 |
592 | 408 | 197 | 132 | 225 | 109 | 51 | 11 | 27 | 27 | 15 | 4 | 15 | 82 | 331 | — | 524 | 356 | 230 | 190 | 126 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 21 | ESE 15 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | S 15 | SSE 8 | SSE 8 | SE 9 | S 10 | SSW 7 | S 11 | S 11 | S 10 | E 10 | E 10 | — | — | S 15 | S 15 | S 12 | S 12 |
8 | 42 | 210 | 234 | 4 | 26 | 13 | 20 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 2 | — | — | 18 | 4 | 27 | 46 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 15 | S 17 | S 15 | S 16 | S 15 | S 14 | NE 5 | S 11 | ESE 9 | ESE 8 | E 8 | E 11 | S 18 | E 10 | — | — | — | — | E 11 | E 10 | E 10 |
4 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | NNW 3 | WNW 4 | W 4 | W 4 | WNW 4 | NNW 3 | W 4 | WNW 4 | — | SSW 5 | S 8 | S 9 | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | 4 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 11 | — | 59 | 540 | 755 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 3 | 31 | 22 | 22 | 229 | 229 | 45 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Newcastle | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Blue Bay Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Blue Bay provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Blue Bay can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Blue Bay surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Blue Bay) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Blue Bay may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.











