
Surf Forecasts:
Blue Bay surf forecast from 15 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 17 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 9s period, SSE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 17 Sep, 1AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 11s period, S swell with 3,093 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 17 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 9s period with SSE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Blue Bay this week:
The surf forecast for Blue Bay over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 17) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 13s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Blue Bay in the next 16 days are 3.5m 11s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 17) at 1AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.4m 3s period and expected on Saturday (Sep 19) at 4AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Thu 17th Sep) | 6ft (1.9m) 9s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Thu 17th Sep) | 6ft (1.9m) 9s |
| Most Powerful | 1AM (Thu 17th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 11s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Blue Bay over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here, and I’ve gotta be straight with you—the outlook for Blue Bay over the next couple weeks is pretty grim. There are only a few small windows where it might be worth a paddle, and the rest is just blown out, chopped up, or flat. Let’s break it down.
The first real chance to get wet hits on Friday morning, September 18th. Blue Bay is a reef break that’s fairly exposed to swell, with the optimum swell direction coming from SSE, but we’re getting S swell, so it’s not ideal. Still, Friday morning has glassy conditions with hardly any wind, a 5 ft swell from the south at 9 seconds, and the combined swell energy is ticking over at 503 (moderate). The water’s currently sitting at 64°, which is about 1° cooler than average for this time of year—nothing wild, just a touch on the fresh side. This is the standout morning of the whole run, but it’s not going to blow your mind—more of a fun, clean session on a small reef wave. Crowds are “sometimes” here, so you might share it, but for this brief window it could be worth a look.
After Friday morning, it goes downhill fast. Friday afternoon already turns cross-on and choppy. Saturday the 19th has a tiny 3 ft south swell with clean cross-off wind in the morning, but it’s weak—combined energy of 244, which is weak. The afternoon gets messy again. Sunday the 20th is flat and onshore. Monday the 21st morning has a tiny 3 ft swell and clean conditions, but it’s barely surfable, with weak energy (146). After that, it’s pretty much a wipeout.
From Monday afternoon through the end of September, the wind is mostly cross-on or onshore, often fresh to strong, and the swell direction shifts to ENE or NE with short, weak periods—around 5 to 8 seconds. Heights bump up a bit, like Tuesday the 22nd with 7 ft and 6 ft, but it’s a short-period wind swell with lumpy cross-chop—more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle session. The combined energy hits a few hundred, weak to moderate, but the quality is terrible.
There’s a tiny glimmer on September 30th—Wednesday morning—with glassy conditions again, a 5 ft swell from the NE, period of 6 seconds, combined energy 265 (weak). It’s clean but small and weak, surfable but nothing to write home about.
After that, into the first days of October, it’s more onshore wind and small junk. Honestly, this 16-day window is a tough one. Blue Bay is inconsistent at the best of times, and with the winds mostly onshore and the swell direction never matching up properly, there’s not much to chase. Friday morning the 18th is your best bet, and even then, keep your expectations low.
Stay tuned, forecasts change.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Fri afternoon, min 9°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the S on Wed afternoon, calm by Fri morning). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Mon night. Warm (max 28°C on Mon morning, min 14°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNW on Sun afternoon, fresh winds from the S by Mon night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | Sunday 20 | Monday 21 | Tuesday 22 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 10 | S 10 | S 11 | S 10 | S 9 | SSE 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 10 | S 9 | S 10 | S 10 | S 19 | S 17 | S 10 | S 12 | SSE 8 | SSE 7 | S 7 | SSE 7 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
2222 | 2738 | 3093 | 2010 | 944 | 528 | 390 | 340 | 211 | 148 | 111 | 66 | 244 | 186 | 212 | 125 | 178 | 310 | 285 | 388 | 265 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-on | off | glassy | cross-on | off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-on |
High Tide | 11:13AM1.40m | 11:39PM1.01m | 11:59AM1.34m | 00:34AM0.92m | 12:55PM1.27m | 1:48AM0.86m | 2:04PM1.24m | 3:16AM0.87m | 3:16PM1.25m | 4:27AM0.92m | 4:18PM1.29m | 5:17AM1.00m | 5:08PM1.36m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 5:51PM0.39m | 5:18AM0.46m | 6:50PM0.46m | 6:02AM0.54m | 8:03PM0.50m | 7:03AM0.59m | 9:21PM0.50m | 8:23AM0.62m | 10:27PM0.45m | 9:41AM0.59m | 11:15PM0.38m | 10:43AM0.53m | 11:53PM0.30m | ||||||||
5:52 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:48 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | |
— | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:49 | — | — | 5:49 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 26 | 26 | 23 | 23 | 20 | 23 | 28 | 18 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
Feels °C | 4 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 18 | 17 | 20 | 24 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 12 | ENE 13 | E 13 | S 10 | S 9 | SSE 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 10 | S 9 | S 10 | S 10 | S 8 | S 17 | S 10 | S 12 | S 10 | S 11 | S 19 | S 19 |
6 | 16 | 3 | 1667 | 944 | 528 | 390 | 340 | 211 | 148 | 111 | 66 | 244 | 111 | 212 | 125 | 178 | 175 | 149 | 62 | 265 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 15 | — | — | E 13 | S 19 | E 13 | SE 7 | S 18 | SE 8 | SE 8 | S 15 | S 17 | S 17 | S 19 | S 7 | NW 3 | NE 4 | NE 5 | E 11 | E 11 | S 10 |
4 | — | — | 3 | 7 | 3 | 53 | 150 | 41 | 22 | 74 | 52 | 50 | 186 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 71 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 17 | — | — | — | E 13 | S 19 | S 18 | E 12 | S 16 | S 15 | SE 8 | ESE 7 | SE 7 | S 13 | S 10 | S 16 | E 11 | — | — | — | E 11 |
22 | — | — | — | 3 | 7 | 60 | 3 | 122 | 74 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 52 | 21 | 2 | — | — | — | 2 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 10 | S 10 | S 11 | S 10 | — | — | — | ESE 7 | WSW 2 | WNW 3 | — | — | — | ENE 3 | — | SW 3 | SSE 4 | SSE 8 | SSE 7 | S 7 | SSE 7 |
2222 | 2738 | 3093 | 2010 | — | — | — | 66 | 1 | 4 | — | — | — | 8 | — | 2 | 24 | 310 | 285 | 388 | 248 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 776 | 776 | 158 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 81 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 150 | 11 | 124 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Newcastle | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Blue Bay Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Blue Bay provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Blue Bay can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Blue Bay surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Blue Bay) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Blue Bay may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.










