
Surf Forecasts:
Blue Bay surf forecast from 15 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 17 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 9s period, SSE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 16 Sep, 1PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 10s period, S swell with 3,065 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 17 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 9s period with SSE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Blue Bay this week:
The surf forecast for Blue Bay over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 17) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.8m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 13s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Blue Bay in the next 16 days are 4.0m 10s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 16) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.5m 3s period and expected on Monday (Sep 21) at 7AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Thu 17th Sep) | 6ft (1.8m) 9s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Thu 17th Sep) | 6ft (1.8m) 9s |
| Most Powerful | 1PM (Wed 16th Sep) | 13ft (4.0m) 10s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Blue Bay over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Tuesday’s got that little bump early with Blue Bay seeing a clean 2ft from the ENE, but it’s barely a ripple and the cross-on wind will chop it up something shocking. That’s the trade-off—pretty period but no push. Honestly, the next few days are a waiting game. Wednesday and Thursday, though… that’s where the ocean wakes up.
Wednesday morning the swell jumps to 11-12ft from the south, period around 10 seconds, and the wind is cross-off—clean lines, proper power. The energy reads 2364, which is solid, but the tide might be playing games, so don’t expect perfection. By the afternoon it’s up to 13ft with even more energy (2962), still cross-off, but that size is pushing it—only for the experienced crew out at Blue Bay. That’s the standout window, no question.
Thursday morning holds 10ft from the south, period still 10 seconds, and the wind’s cross-off again—clean, powerful, and the energy’s climbed to 3376. That’s your best bet of the whole run, if you can handle the size. Both Wednesday and Thursday mornings are the only real standouts; everything else is either too small, too chopped, or the wind’s onshore.
Friday morning drops to 4-5ft but it’s glassy—dead calm, light offshore. That’s clean but small, and with the period at 10 seconds, it’ll be fun for the logger or the longboard, not a peak day. The energy’s only 511, so don’t rush. Saturday’s similar—under 3ft, clean early but the onshore kicks in by the afternoon.
Sunday and Monday sink back into poor surf—tiny waves, cross-on winds, and the energy’s weak (under 200). Tuesday the 22nd sees a bit of a pulse, 5-6ft from the SSE, but it’s cross-on, choppy, and the period’s dropped, so it’s not worth paddling out for. After that, it’s a desert. The 23rd through the 26th are all poor—small, onshore, or lumpy, with the only real size on the 24th afternoon at 6ft but gusty cross-on and a short 6-second period, which is just mush.
The 27th gives a tiny clean window—3ft from the ENE, light offshore, period 7 seconds, but it’s surfable at best. The 28th and 29th bring more swell, 5-7ft, but it’s cross-shore, rain, and lumpy—no good. The 30th is the same story, 4-5ft, onshore rain.
Water temp’s sitting at 64°, which is about normal for this time of year, nothing wild. But honestly, this stretch is a letdown. If you’re chasing waves, Wednesday and Thursday mornings are the only real deal, and they’re big. The rest… maybe bring the bodyboard, not the shortboard.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastSome drizzle, heaviest during Tue night. Very mild (max 17°C on Tue afternoon, min 9°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SSW on Wed morning, calm by Fri morning). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 26°C on Sat morning, min 16°C on Fri afternoon). Wind will be generally light. | |||||||||||||||||||
Tue 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | Sunday 20 | Monday 21 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 6 | S 8 | S 10 | S 10 | S 11 | S 10 | S 9 | SSE 9 | S 10 | S 10 | S 9 | S 10 | S 10 | S 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 19 | S 16 | SSE 7 | SSE 8 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
27 | 1075 | 2354 | 2946 | 2875 | 1849 | 848 | 463 | 347 | 354 | 211 | 153 | 149 | 85 | 58 | 40 | 259 | 83 | 135 | 235 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | off | cross-off | on | off | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross |
High Tide | 10:54PM1.12m | 11:13AM1.40m | 11:39PM1.01m | 11:59AM1.34m | 00:34AM0.92m | 12:55PM1.27m | 1:48AM0.86m | 2:04PM1.24m | 3:16AM0.87m | 3:16PM1.25m | 4:27AM0.92m | 4:18PM1.29m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 5:01PM0.31m | 4:42AM0.37m | 5:51PM0.39m | 5:18AM0.46m | 6:50PM0.46m | 6:02AM0.54m | 8:03PM0.50m | 7:03AM0.59m | 9:21PM0.50m | 8:23AM0.62m | 10:27PM0.45m | 9:41AM0.59m | 11:15PM0.38m | |||||||
— | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:48 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | |
5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:49 | — | |
mm | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 |
Temp °C | 17 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 26 | 24 | 24 | 22 | 20 | 23 | 20 | 16 | 16 |
Feels °C | 15 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 22 | 20 | 20 | 17 | 16 | 20 | 15 | 13 | 14 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 6 | NE 7 | NE 12 | ENE 13 | E 13 | S 10 | S 9 | SSE 9 | S 10 | S 10 | S 9 | S 10 | S 10 | S 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 19 | S 16 | S 11 | SSE 8 |
27 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 3 | 1524 | 848 | 463 | 347 | 354 | 211 | 153 | 149 | 85 | 58 | 40 | 259 | 83 | 64 | 235 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 9 | E 14 | E 15 | — | — | E 13 | S 19 | E 13 | SE 7 | SE 7 | S 16 | S 15 | S 15 | S 15 | S 17 | S 22 | S 10 | S 9 | NE 5 | S 12 |
15 | 15 | 4 | — | — | 3 | 7 | 3 | 50 | 50 | 176 | 153 | 72 | 41 | 22 | 40 | 30 | 15 | 1 | 49 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 13 | S 16 | — | — | — | — | E 13 | S 19 | SSE 18 | S 18 | NE 4 | SE 8 | ESE 7 | E 11 | E 11 | E 9 | NE 4 | NE 5 | E 11 | S 17 |
14 | 5 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 7 | 114 | 158 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 4 | S 8 | S 10 | S 10 | S 11 | S 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NW 2 | NE 3 | NW 2 | S 5 | SSE 7 | — |
13 | 1075 | 2354 | 2946 | 2875 | 1849 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 38 | 135 | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 1350 | 205 | 776 | 776 | 41 | 11 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 81 | 0 | 19 | 99 | 0 | 33 | 349 | 11 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Newcastle | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Blue Bay Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Blue Bay provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Blue Bay can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Blue Bay surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Blue Bay) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Blue Bay may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.










