Surf Forecasts:
Blue Bay surf forecast from 16 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 17 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 11s period, S swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 19 Aug, 4PM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 10s period, ESE swell with 264 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 16 Aug, 10PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 8s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Blue Bay this week:
The surf forecast for Blue Bay over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 16) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.0m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 7s. Another secondary swell of 0.9m and 6s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Blue Bay in the next 16 days are 1.2m 10s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.4m 3s period and expected on Saturday (Aug 22) at 10PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Sun 16th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Mon 17th Aug) | 3ft (0.9m) 11s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Wed 19th Aug) | 4ft (1.2m) 10s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Blue Bay over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here.
Look, I’ll be straight with you – the next 16 days at Blue Bay are a real mixed bag, and mostly a struggle. We’ve got a long stretch of ordinary to poor conditions, so you’ll need to be patient. There’s a big gap with no real surf on offer from the 16th through the 18th, and then a whole lot of nothing worth paddling out for until things get interesting right at the tail end.
The water temp is sitting at 63°, which is about 1° cooler than normal for this time of year – nothing dramatic, just a touch on the fresh side.
The best window, and the only real standout in the whole outlook, comes on Wednesday the 26th of August. It’s not huge, but it’s the best we’ve got. We’ll see a 4ft S swell pushing in, with a period of 11 seconds, and the combined energy is a solid 496 – that’s moderate energy, with some punch behind it. The wind is howling out of the west at 19 mph, so it’s a fresh offshore, which means the waves will be clean and lined up. It’s a reef break, and with that offshore wind, it’ll be holding shape nicely. The swell direction is S, which is close to the optimum SSE direction for Blue Bay, so it’s working well. Morning is the call here. The afternoon is similar, with a 4ft S swell, 11-second period, and 391 energy, still with a clean offshore from the west at 22 mph. For a reef break, that wind is a blessing – it’ll keep the faces smooth. This is for intermediate surfers, and it’s worth a look.
The only other flicker of hope is on Monday the 25th, but it’s a letdown. You’ve got a 3ft S swell, 12-second period, and 340 energy, with a strong 19 mph cross-offshore from the SW. The waves are there, but the wind is just too strong to make it enjoyable – that’s a kite-surfing setup more than a paddle session.
For the rest of the run, it’s a write-off. From the 16th through the 22nd, we’ve got tiny swell, poor wind, and scores that are basically zero. The 24th has a 1ft S swell with a 19-second period – that’s a very long period groundswell, but it’s so small it’s barely a ripple. The clean offshore wind on the 24th morning is a tease, but there’s just no power. The 27th to the 30th is all cross-offshore winds and tiny, weak swell – not worth getting wet for.
Now, the 31st of August is a weird one. The morning is flat, but the afternoon shows a 12ft S swell with a 9-second period and a massive 1947 energy – that’s strong to very strong energy. But here’s the catch: the wind is cross-onshore from the ENE at 9 mph, and the period is short, so it’ll be a messy, lumpy, and powerful closeout. That’s expert-only territory, and even then, it’s not going to be clean. I’d give it a miss unless you’re a masochist.
So, to sum it up: if you’re keen, aim for the morning of Wednesday the 26th of August. That’s your best bet for clean, surfable waves at Blue Bay. The rest is a waiting game or a kite session.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Sun night. Very mild (max 16°C on Sun afternoon, min 13°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 19°C on Thu morning, min 12°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | |||||||||||||||||||
Sun 16 | Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 7 | S 11 | S 10 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ESE 8 | ESE 7 | ESE 10 | E 9 | ESE 7 | E 7 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | NE 6 | ENE 6 | NE 7 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
183 | 189 | 116 | 113 | 124 | 141 | 115 | 116 | 90 | 264 | 185 | 75 | 107 | 82 | 41 | 33 | 23 | 19 | 16 | 11 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | glassy | on | cross-on | on | on | on | glassy | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross | cross |
High Tide | 10:43PM1.39m | 11:21AM1.37m | 11:25PM1.23m | 12:04PM1.35m | 00:11AM1.08m | 12:53PM1.32m | 1:06AM0.96m | 1:49PM1.28m | 2:17AM0.88m | 2:54PM1.27m | 3:41AM0.86m | 4:00PM1.29m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 4:39PM0.29m | 5:00AM0.19m | 5:30PM0.36m | 5:34AM0.29m | 6:26PM0.44m | 6:11AM0.39m | 7:30PM0.50m | 6:54AM0.47m | 8:46PM0.53m | 7:49AM0.53m | 10:05PM0.51m | 8:59AM0.56m | 11:09PM0.46m | |||||||
— | — | 6:31 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | |
5:24 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | |
mm | — | 2 | 1 | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 |
Temp °C | 16 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 18 | 16 | 16 |
Feels °C | 12 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 13 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 7 | S 11 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | S 8 | S 11 | ESE 7 | ESE 8 | ESE 7 | ESE 10 | E 9 | ESE 7 | E 10 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | NE 6 | ENE 6 | NE 7 |
183 | 189 | 105 | 113 | 49 | 85 | 115 | 116 | 85 | 264 | 185 | 75 | 2 | 82 | 41 | 33 | 23 | 19 | 16 | 11 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 12 | ESE 6 | S 10 | S 9 | S 12 | E 9 | S 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | S 8 | S 8 | E 11 | — | E 10 | S 11 | S 11 | — | S 9 | S 8 | ENE 9 |
69 | 50 | 116 | 80 | 25 | 6 | 56 | 100 | 90 | 19 | 12 | 2 | — | 2 | 3 | 2 | — | 6 | 13 | 8 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 18 | SSE 6 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | ESE 11 | SE 15 | ESE 14 | S 10 | S 9 | S 15 | E 12 | — | S 14 | S 13 | S 11 | SE 9 | S 10 | SE 7 | SE 7 | S 9 |
96 | 23 | 62 | 53 | 12 | 9 | 36 | 48 | 27 | 4 | 3 | — | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | ESE 7 | — | — | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | — | — | — | — | NE 4 | — | E 7 | — | — | NW 2 | — | NW 2 | — | W 3 |
— | 96 | — | — | 124 | 141 | — | — | — | — | 25 | — | 107 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — | 1 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 41 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 81 | 82 | 81 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 171 | 0 | 3 | 91 | 219 | 219 | 229 | 219 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Newcastle | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Blue Bay Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Blue Bay provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Blue Bay can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Blue Bay surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Blue Bay) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Blue Bay may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.











