Surf Forecasts:
Blue Bay surf forecast from 14 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Thursday 17 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 9s period, SSE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 16 Sep, 4PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 10s period, S swell with 2,684 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 17 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 6ft (1.8m), 9s period with SSE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Blue Bay this week:
The surf forecast for Blue Bay over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Sep 17) at 10PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.8m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 13s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Blue Bay in the next 16 days are 3.5m 10s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 16) at 4PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.5m 3s period and expected on Monday (Sep 21) at 4AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 10PM (Thu 17th Sep) | 6ft (1.8m) 9s |
| Best Surf | 10PM (Thu 17th Sep) | 6ft (1.8m) 9s |
| Most Powerful | 4PM (Wed 16th Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 10s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Blue Bay over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let’s talk Blue Bay. This is a reef break for intermediate surfers, but it breaks rarely, so you’ve gotta be willing to wait. The optimum swell direction is SSE. Water temp is about normal for this time of year.
We’ve got nothing right now. The first real surf shows up on Wednesday, September 16th. That morning, a solid 12ft south swell rolls in with a period around 9 seconds. The wind is cross-off, conditions are clean, and the combined energy is 2045 (moderate wave energy). That afternoon, the swell holds at 12ft, the period stretches to 10 seconds, and the energy jumps to 2700. This is big, powerful, and clean, but over 8ft it’s expert-only. If you can handle it, this is the standout of the forecast.
Thursday the 17th keeps it going with a 10ft south swell in the morning, period at 10 seconds, and energy at 3193. Wind is cross-off and clean. Still expert territory, but it looks great.
From Friday the 18th on, the swell drops fast and the wind turns onshore. The weekend is small and choppy, not worth it. Monday the 21st has some windswell, but it’s messy.
Tuesday the 22nd and Wednesday the 23rd see some 7ft to 7ft SSE swells, but the wind is cross-on or onshore, and conditions are marginal at best. The energy is there, but the wind ruins it.
After that, it’s a long stretch of onshore winds and tiny surf all the way to the end of the month. A couple of days on the 28th and 29th are clean but the swell is small and weak.
Bottom line: the only real window is Wednesday the 16th and Thursday the 17th. Big, clean south swell for experts only. Everything else is a write-off.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Warm (max 22°C on Mon night, min 9°C on Wed night). Mainly strong winds. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 28°C on Sun morning, min 11°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | Sunday 20 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 6 | NE 6 | NE 6 | S 8 | S 9 | S 10 | S 10 | S 10 | S 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 10 | S 10 | S 9 | S 9 | S 8 | S 19 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 126 | 40 | 18 | 949 | 2005 | 2684 | 2471 | 1765 | 854 | 463 | 364 | 334 | 210 | 149 | 146 | 80 | 52 | 22 | 29 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-on | off | cross-on | cross-on | off | glassy | on | cross-off | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off |
High Tide | 10:13PM1.25m | 10:34AM1.46m | 10:54PM1.12m | 11:13AM1.40m | 11:39PM1.01m | 11:59AM1.34m | 00:34AM0.92m | 12:55PM1.27m | 1:48AM0.86m | 2:04PM1.24m | 3:16AM0.87m | 3:16PM1.25m | |||||||
Low Tide | 4:10AM0.28m | 5:01PM0.31m | 4:42AM0.37m | 5:51PM0.39m | 5:18AM0.46m | 6:50PM0.46m | 6:02AM0.54m | 8:03PM0.50m | 7:03AM0.59m | 9:21PM0.50m | 8:23AM0.62m | 10:27PM0.45m | |||||||
 |  |  |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:50 | — | — | 5:48 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — |
 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 22 | 22 | 17 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 24 | 21 | 21 | 28 | 27 | 26 |
Feels °C | 18 | 20 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 19 | 17 | 18 | 23 | 24 | 22 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 6 | NE 6 | NE 6 | NE 6 | ENE 14 | ENE 13 | E 13 | S 10 | S 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 10 | S 10 | S 9 | S 9 | S 8 | S 10 |
| kJ | 75 | 40 | 18 | 6 | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1418 | 854 | 463 | 364 | 334 | 210 | 149 | 146 | 80 | 52 | 22 | 18 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 10 | S 10 | S 9 | E 14 | ENE 14 | — | — | S 19 | S 19 | E 13 | SSE 18 | S 18 | NE 4 | S 15 | S 17 | NE 4 | NE 4 | S 11 | NE 5 |
| kJ | 50 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 20 | — | — | 7 | 28 | 3 | 66 | 158 | 15 | 113 | 142 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 4 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 12 | — | E 13 | S 16 | — | — | — | E 13 | E 13 | S 19 | E 12 | E 12 | S 16 | NNE 4 | E 12 | S 15 | S 17 | NE 5 | S 19 |
| kJ | 12 | — | 14 | 5 | — | — | — | 3 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 129 | 2 | 3 | 41 | 6 | 1 | 29 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 6 | WNW 3 | SSE 4 | S 8 | S 9 | S 10 | S 10 | S 10 | — | — | — | ENE 3 | — | — | E 3 | — | — | NNE 2 | W 3 |
| kJ | 126 | 2 | 7 | 949 | 2005 | 2684 | 2471 | 1765 | — | — | — | 3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1 | 1 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 15 | 1350 | 158 | 791 | 776 | 158 | 11 | 81 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 113 | 8 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Newcastle | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Blue Bay Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Blue Bay provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Blue Bay can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Blue Bay surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Blue Bay) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Blue Bay may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
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