Blue Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the menu for the next couple of weeks. We’re focusing on one spot, Blue Bay, and honestly, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. We’re starting slow, but there’s a proper pulse of energy due mid-month if you’re patient.

Right now, there’s nothing doing for a surf. The first bit of rideable swell we see arrives on Wednesday, July 8th. It’s a bit of a raw one though. We’ve got a 8ft swell rolling in from the southeast with a period of 11 seconds, and that’s pumping a hefty 1853 energy units into the reef. That’s a lot of power. Problem is, the wind is a cross-shore from the south at 9 mph, and there’s some rain around. The report calls it “marginal” and “questionable tide,” so it’s going to be a bit of a wrestle. That’s really only for the experienced crew; 8ft is pushing it for the average punter.

The size eases back a touch on Thursday morning, July 9th, with a 7ft SE swell and a 10-second period. The wind swings to a light cross-offshore from the SSW at 6 mph, and the water is clean. The energy is still solid at 887, and it’s looking like the best wave of this early window. Get out there before the wind shifts onshore in the afternoon, which trashes it right out.

Friday, July 10th, the swell drops to 5ft from the SE. The morning has a clean look with a cross-off breeze from the SW, but the energy is down to 518. It’s surfable, but nothing to write home about. Saturday morning, July 11th, is similar with a 4ft SE swell but a nice offshore from the NW. It’s pretty weak though (376 energy), so you’ll be scratching for the good ones.

Then we hit a dry spell. From Sunday, July 12th, right through to Wednesday, July 15th, the swell drops into the ankle-to-knee high range with energy figures in the double digits. The wind is clean, often offshore, but there’s just no juice. It’s a flat spell, plain and simple.

Now, here’s the standout, but it comes with a warning. On Thursday, July 16th, a big pulse of southerly swell hits. We’re looking at 8ft from the south with a 10-second period. The energy is roaring back at 1998. But, the wind is a strong onshore from the SSE at 22 mph, with rain showers. The report is blunt: “poor surf conditions.” The water is going to be a lumpy, choppy mess. With that much wind and a beach/reef setup, honestly, this looks more interesting for the kite surfers than the paddle crew. If you’re an expert on a big board and know the reef, you might find a diamond, but don’t expect any polish.

The rest of the month just fades away. The wind stays messy or onshore, and the swell energy drops back to weak numbers (under 200). The water temperature is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The bottom line: Your best bet for a clean, decent wave is Thursday morning, July 9th at Blue Bay. The 7ft SE swell with light cross-off winds and 887 energy units is the one true highlight. Everything else is either too big and messy, or too small to bother with. The big swell on the 16th is a promise of power, but the wind will likely ruin the party.

Stay patient, keep an eye on the sky, and I’ll catch you in the water.

- Rusty

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