Blue Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it.

We’re looking at Blue Bay. A reef break that’s fairly exposed to the south-southeast swell, but it’s inconsistent, so you can’t just rock up any time and expect it to be working.

Water temp is sitting around 64°F, which is pretty average for this time of year—nothing weird going on there.

The start of the period is a bit of a write-off. Friday afternoon has a 5ft south swell, but it’s cross-on and the surf is poor. Not worth paddling out.

Saturday morning though—that’s the standout of the first week. We’ve got a 4ft south swell with a 12-second period, and the wind is glassy. That’s about as clean as it gets. The combined wave energy is moderate (630). For a reef break like this, those longer period waves should line up nicely. Expect good surf. It won’t be too big for intermediates, and because the break is inconsistent, when it’s on, it’s worth making the effort.

Saturday afternoon goes downhill fast—wind swings onshore, choppy. Then Sunday and Monday stay cross-on with small, poor surf.

Tuesday and Wednesday of that first week are also poor, with weak energy and messy conditions.

Then we hit a gap of a few days with nothing worthwhile until...

Wednesday the 16th, we get a big pulse. An 12ft south swell with 9-second period, but the combined energy is strong (2087). This is expert territory—over 8ft and short period means powerful, dumpy waves. Wind is cross-off and clean, but the surf is marginal at best for most people. That afternoon jumps to 13ft (3282 energy). That’s serious, but unless you’re a seasoned charger, stay out.

Thursday the 17th morning drops to 10ft (1505 energy), still cross-off and clean, and the score is a little better, but again, this is for experts only.

From there, it fades. Friday the 18th is small and messy.

Then there’s another quiet stretch. Saturday the 19th and Sunday the 20th have tiny 2ft south swell, but with a very long period (17-18 seconds). The combined energy is weak (under 260). These long-period groundswells can make for some tidy little waves at a reef if you time it right, and the wind is offshore or light, so it’ll be clean. But it’s very small—really just for a longboard or a funboard.

Monday the 21st through Wednesday the 23rd are mostly flat or blown out.

The last few days of the period—Thursday the 24th through Saturday the 26th—show some east-northeast swell building. Thursday afternoon has a 7ft east swell with a 7-second period and cross-off wind, clean but short period and combined energy moderate (489). It’s marginal. Friday and Saturday have bigger east-northeast swell (7 to 8ft) but onshore wind and short period—poor, choppy, not worth it.

Bottom line: Saturday morning the 12th is the real standout—small, glassy, clean. That’s your session. The big stuff mid-month is for experts only, and the tiny long-period waves at the end of the first week are a maybe for the mellow crew.

Rusty.

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