Blue Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here.

Look, I’ll be straight with you – the next 16 days at Blue Bay are a real mixed bag, and mostly a struggle. We’ve got a long stretch of ordinary to poor conditions, so you’ll need to be patient. There’s a big gap with no real surf on offer from the 16th through the 18th, and then a whole lot of nothing worth paddling out for until things get interesting right at the tail end.

The water temp is sitting at 63°, which is about 1° cooler than normal for this time of year – nothing dramatic, just a touch on the fresh side.

The best window, and the only real standout in the whole outlook, comes on Wednesday the 26th of August. It’s not huge, but it’s the best we’ve got. We’ll see a 4ft S swell pushing in, with a period of 11 seconds, and the combined energy is a solid 496 – that’s moderate energy, with some punch behind it. The wind is howling out of the west at 19 mph, so it’s a fresh offshore, which means the waves will be clean and lined up. It’s a reef break, and with that offshore wind, it’ll be holding shape nicely. The swell direction is S, which is close to the optimum SSE direction for Blue Bay, so it’s working well. Morning is the call here. The afternoon is similar, with a 4ft S swell, 11-second period, and 391 energy, still with a clean offshore from the west at 22 mph. For a reef break, that wind is a blessing – it’ll keep the faces smooth. This is for intermediate surfers, and it’s worth a look.

The only other flicker of hope is on Monday the 25th, but it’s a letdown. You’ve got a 3ft S swell, 12-second period, and 340 energy, with a strong 19 mph cross-offshore from the SW. The waves are there, but the wind is just too strong to make it enjoyable – that’s a kite-surfing setup more than a paddle session.

For the rest of the run, it’s a write-off. From the 16th through the 22nd, we’ve got tiny swell, poor wind, and scores that are basically zero. The 24th has a 1ft S swell with a 19-second period – that’s a very long period groundswell, but it’s so small it’s barely a ripple. The clean offshore wind on the 24th morning is a tease, but there’s just no power. The 27th to the 30th is all cross-offshore winds and tiny, weak swell – not worth getting wet for.

Now, the 31st of August is a weird one. The morning is flat, but the afternoon shows a 12ft S swell with a 9-second period and a massive 1947 energy – that’s strong to very strong energy. But here’s the catch: the wind is cross-onshore from the ENE at 9 mph, and the period is short, so it’ll be a messy, lumpy, and powerful closeout. That’s expert-only territory, and even then, it’s not going to be clean. I’d give it a miss unless you’re a masochist.

So, to sum it up: if you’re keen, aim for the morning of Wednesday the 26th of August. That’s your best bet for clean, surfable waves at Blue Bay. The rest is a waiting game or a kite session.

Rusty.

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