Blue Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s shaping up for Blue Bay over the next couple of weeks.

First up, water temp is sitting at 64°, which is about average for this time of year – nothing wild there.

The pattern kicks off on Saturday the 29th of August, but it’s a total write-off. We’ve got 4ft of SSE swell but the wind is cross-on from the SE at 6 mph, and the wave energy is moderate (532). The comment says poor surf conditions, and I’m not gonna argue with that. Sunday the 30th is where it gets interesting. Sunday morning, the wind goes glassy – NNE at 3 mph – and we’ve got 3ft of S swell at 9 seconds. The wave energy is moderate (289) and the conditions are glassy. That’s a standout morning. The swell direction is SSE, which matches the optimum for Blue Bay, and the wind is light and offshore, so it’ll be clean. Crowds are possible here, so get out early if you can.

Monday the 31st drops off – 2ft of S swell with a 16-second period (that’s a long-period groundswell) but the wind is cross-on from the NE. The long period means it’ll break straight at this reef setup, so it’s not ideal. Tuesday and Wednesday stay small and ordinary, with clean conditions but not enough push. Thursday the 3rd of September is tiny, with 1ft of ENE swell.

Friday the 4th of September has a weird one – 1ft of S swell with an 18-second period, which is very long, but the wind is cross-on from the ENE at 12 mph, so it’s messy. The energy is still moderate (219), but it’s not worth paddling out for.

The next real standout is Sunday the 6th of September. That morning we’ve got 4ft of S swell at 10 seconds, with a WNW offshore wind at 12 mph. The wave energy is strong (304) and the conditions are clean. That’s a good opportunity for intermediates, though the swell is moderate. The offshore wind will keep it glassy and make paddling out easier.

After that, it’s a long dry spell. Monday the 7th has a tiny 1.0ft of NE swell, and from Tuesday the 8th through to Saturday the 12th, it’s mostly flat or poor. There’s a big spike on Wednesday the 9th of September – 8ft of S swell at 11 seconds, with wave energy at a huge 1725, but the wind is cross-on from the ESE at 6 mph. That’s a lot of water moving, but the wind is not favourable. The swell is over 8ft, so only experts should even think about it. The energy is very strong, but the conditions are marginal. Thursday the 10th and Friday the 11th also have solid 8ft and 4ft S swells, but again, the wind is cross-on, so it’s not clean.

The last weekend of the forecast period, Saturday the 12th and Sunday the 13th of September, fizzles out with small, poor surf.

So, the best on offer is Sunday morning, the 30th of August – glassy, clean, 3ft of S swell. That’s your window. The second standout is Sunday morning, the 6th of September, with 4ft of S swell and offshore wind. The big swell mid-week is only for experts and even then, the wind is not on your side.

Rusty, signing off.

Read more