Surf Forecasts:
Blue Bay surf forecast from 17 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 19 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 8s period, ESE swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 19 Aug, 7PM (local time) - 4ft (1.2m), 9s period, E swell with 246 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 19 Aug, 1AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 8s period with ESE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Blue Bay this week:
The surf forecast for Blue Bay over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 1AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.0m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 11s. Another secondary swell of 0.9m and 5s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Blue Bay in the next 16 days are 1.2m 9s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 7PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.5m 9s period and expected on Sunday (Aug 23) at 4PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AEST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 1AM (Wed 19th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 1AM (Wed 19th Aug) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 7PM (Wed 19th Aug) | 4ft (1.2m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Blue Bay over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let’s talk Blue Bay. It’s a rough spell ahead. For the next week and a half, the surf is almost non-existent. We’re looking at a long stretch of poor conditions right through the end of August, with only a few moments of “surfable but very ordinary” waves. The water temp is about 64°F, which is just a touch cooler than average for this time of year.
The only real hope comes right at the end of the forecast. On Tuesday morning, the 1st of September, we see a solid jump in energy, with a combined swell energy of 1358. That’s strong. The swell is from the south at about 6ft with a 14-second period – a nice, long groundswell. The wind is a light cross-shore from the SSE, so it’ll be clean. This is the standout. Blue Bay is a reef, so that long-period south swell will wrap in nicely. But it’s an inconsistent spot, so expect long waits between sets. The wave report says it’s “marginal,” meaning the tide might be tricky, so time it right. The crowd is listed as “sometimes,” so you might have a few others, but it won’t be crowded.
For the rest of the time? Not much. There’s a brief window on Wednesday morning, the 19th of August, with glassy SSW wind and a waist-high ESE swell at 2ft with a 10-second period. The energy is weak at 192. You could snag a little one. Similarly, the mornings of the 24th, 25th, and 26th of August offer clean cross-off winds and small south swells, but the size is tiny – under 3ft. The energy is moderate at best, peaking around 246. These are for the longboard or a fun paddle, not a real surf.
Then at the end of August, on the 30th, the swell jumps to 10ft from the south, but the period is a short 8 seconds, and the wind is a moderate cross-shore. That’s a mess of chop. The combined energy is a massive 1159, but it’s all wind-slop. That’s kite-surfing weather, not paddle surfing. The 29th and 30th are similar with strong winds and 6ft of short-period swell.
So, the bottom line: if you’re patient, the 1st of September is your best shot. The rest of the month is a washout. Don’t get your hopes up.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastSome drizzle, heaviest during Tue night. Warm (max 20°C on Thu morning, min 14°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 10mm), heaviest on Fri night. Very mild (max 19°C on Thu night, min 13°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | Sunday 23 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ESE 8 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | SE 9 | ESE 7 | ESE 6 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | NE 6 | NE 6 | NE 6 | SSE 5 | S 16 | S 12 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
139 | 128 | 108 | 140 | 90 | 235 | 95 | 75 | 43 | 62 | 34 | 20 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 36 | 78 | 69 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | on | on | glassy | glassy | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross | off | glassy | on | cross | off | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-off |
High Tide | 11:25PM1.23m | 12:04PM1.35m | 00:11AM1.08m | 12:53PM1.32m | 1:06AM0.96m | 1:49PM1.28m | 2:17AM0.88m | 2:54PM1.27m | 3:41AM0.86m | 4:00PM1.29m | 4:54AM0.89m | 4:58PM1.35m | |||||||
Low Tide | 5:34AM0.29m | 6:26PM0.44m | 6:11AM0.39m | 7:30PM0.50m | 6:54AM0.47m | 8:46PM0.53m | 7:49AM0.53m | 10:05PM0.51m | 8:59AM0.56m | 11:09PM0.46m | 10:09AM0.54m | 11:58PM0.39m | |||||||
— | 6:28 | — | — | 6:28 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:26 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | 6:24 | — | — | |
— | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:29 | — | — | 5:29 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 17 | 14 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 |
Feels °C | 13 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 12 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 8 | S 11 | S 11 | ESE 8 | ESE 7 | S 8 | SE 9 | ESE 7 | ESE 6 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | ENE 6 | NE 6 | NE 6 | NE 6 | S 5 | S 9 | S 7 |
35 | 85 | 56 | 140 | 76 | 10 | 95 | 75 | 43 | 62 | 34 | 20 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 17 | 40 | 40 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 12 | E 9 | ESE 14 | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | S 15 | E 12 | E 11 | E 10 | E 10 | SE 7 | ESE 7 | S 5 | S 5 | S 4 | S 5 | ENE 9 | ENE 9 | S 12 |
25 | 6 | 71 | 113 | 90 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 29 | 69 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 11 | SE 15 | E 9 | S 10 | S 9 | S 15 | E 12 | E 11 | — | S 12 | S 12 | S 11 | ESE 7 | SE 7 | SE 7 | NNW 3 | S 8 | S 16 | E 4 |
12 | 9 | 6 | 47 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 2 | — | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 78 | 9 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | E 5 | — | ESE 10 | NE 5 | NE 5 | NE 4 | NW 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSE 5 | SE 5 | — |
139 | 128 | 108 | 45 | — | 235 | 51 | 24 | 14 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 36 | 25 | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 63 | 81 | 170 | 0 | 0 | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 219 | 229 | 219 | 296 | 161 | 0 | 171 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Newcastle | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Blue Bay Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Blue Bay provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Blue Bay can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Blue Bay surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Blue Bay) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Blue Bay may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.











