Blue Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming our way for Blue Bay over the next couple of weeks.

Right now, it’s flat. There’s a real gap at the start with no surf worth paddling out for until Thursday the 9th of July. From there, things kick into gear, but it’s a mixed bag of quality, so keep your expectations in check.

Thursday the 9th of July morning is where we finally get a look. Blue Bay is a reef setup, inconsistent but when it comes together it can be a gem. The swell is coming in at 6 ft from the SE, with a solid 10-second period. That’s groundswell, packing moderate wave energy (841). The wind is a light cross-off from the SW – that’s a decent combo, keeping the surface clean. This is the standout morning of the early run. Water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual. The swell direction is SSE optimum, and we’re getting SE, so close enough to work well.

Friday the 10th of July morning is similar but a touch smaller – 5 ft from the SE, still with that 10-second period. Wind is cross-off again, wave energy is moderate (683), and the surf is clean. A good follow-up session, but the Thursday morning has the edge for size.

Saturday the 11th of July morning drops right off to 3 ft from the ESE, with a longer 12-second period. That long period means it’ll be a bit more drawn out and lined up on the reef, and with a light cross-off wind, it’ll be clean. Wave energy is still moderate (407). Worth a paddle if you’re keen but it’s not the pick.

Sunday the 12th of July through to Wednesday the 15th of July is a pretty poor run. Swell sizes are tiny a bunch of the time, or the wind gets strong and messy. By Wednesday afternoon the 15th of July, the swell jumps to 8 ft from the S, but a 7-second period and a strong cross-off wind from the SW make it look pretty average. That one’s best left for the kite crew, not paddle surfing.

Thursday the 16th of July morning sees a big pulse – 10 ft from the S, 9-second period, and strong cross-off wind. That’s expert territory for sure, the swell is well over 8 ft, and the combined wave energy is strong (1422). But the wind is howling, and the short period means it’ll be a bit lumpy and unrefined. Not a clean option for most.

We then get a long stretch of poor quality from Thursday the 16th through to Wednesday the 22nd of July. Big cross-shore winds, messy conditions, and inconsistent swell. Thursday the 16th afternoon through to the 17th have solid 7 ft to 8 ft swell, but the wind is tearing across from the S and SSE near gale force. That’s a write-off.

Sunday the 19th of July afternoon finally offers a glimmer. The swell is 4 ft from the S, 8-second period, but the wind is light from the SSW and cross-off, so it’s clean. Wave energy is moderate (283). This is a salvage session, not a standout.

Monday the 20th of July morning and afternoon both look decent. Swell is 3 ft to 4 ft from the S, with a long 12-second period – that’s proper groundswell. Offshore wind from the W at 12 mph, so clean faces. Wave energy is moderate (395 and 309). This is the best of the second week: clean, lined up, and manageable for intermediate surfers. The break is inconsistent, so you’ll be waiting for sets, but when they come, they’ll be worth it.

After that, things fade out again. From Tuesday the 21st of July onward, it’s tiny or onshore. Thursday the 23rd and Friday the 24th of July are flat as a tack.

So, if you’ve got one shot, make it Thursday the 9th of July morning for the best balance of size, clean wind, and energy. The Monday the 20th of July is your second-week wildcard – long-period groundswell and offshore conditions, but less certain this far out.

Stay safe, read the reef, and don’t force it when the wind’s howling.

Rusty.

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