Blue Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s going down at Blue Bay.

First off, the water’s running about 64°, which is pretty average for this time of year – nothing wild there.

To be honest, the next week or so is a bit of a grind. From Tuesday through the following Monday, we’ve got a string of small, weak, and mostly ordinary surf. The combined swell energy is often under 300 (moderate at best, weak at worst). Swell heights are barely scraping 3ft most days, with periods around 10-11 seconds. The wind’s often cross or cross-off, but the conditions are just “poor” – no real power or push to get stoked about. Thursday the 3rd and Saturday the 5th are especially flat, with swell dropping below 2ft and energy in the double digits. That’s a real lull.

There’s a small window on Friday the 4th in the morning – glassy conditions, a light northeasterly, and a clean 4ft south swell. But at 11 seconds, it’s a bit soft, and the energy is still only moderate (291). It’s surfable, but not a standout. The afternoon wind swings around and kills it.

Then things get interesting. Sunday the 6th sees a bump to 5ft, but the wind is cross-on and messy. The real story starts Monday the 7th – still poor, but the swell is building in the background.

Now, here’s the part that gets the heart pumping. The standout window is Friday the 11th. The morning session is the absolute pick of the whole forecast. We’re looking at a solid 16ft swell from the south with a long period of 13 seconds – that’s proper groundswell. The combined energy is massive at 16220 (very strong). The wind is a light cross-off from the south-southwest. That’s a recipe for clean, powerful waves. But – and this is a big but – 16ft surf is for highly experienced surfers only. Beginners: stay on the beach. For the experts, if it lines up, this is a serious session. Keep in mind, such a long-period south swell will be breaking a bit straight on the beach, so look for deeper channels or any reef or point structure.

The day before, Thursday the 10th of September, is also notable – 12ft south swell with moderate to strong energy (3302 to 5293) and consistent cross-off winds. It’s big and powerful, but again, only for the competent crew. The water will be moving with that energy.

After that peak, Saturday the 12th settles back to a more manageable 6ft with light cross-off winds – much more intermediate-friendly, but the energy drops back to moderate (597).

The following week (from the 13th onward) looks like it’s fading out. Smaller swells, onshore or cross-on winds, and low energy. Not worth blocking out time for.

So, here’s the story: the first week is slim pickings – mostly flat or poor. The absolute best of the whole window is the morning of Friday the 11th, at Blue Bay, for experts only – a 16ft south swell with light offshore wind and huge energy. Thursday the 10th is a solid backup for the same crowd. After that, the surf fades into the ordinary again.

- Rusty

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