Blue Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let's be straight with you: the next couple of weeks at Blue Bay are looking pretty grim for a proper paddle. We've got a long stretch of tiny, disorganized swell, and honestly, for the first week and a half, you’d be wasting your time. We're talking about a real dry spell until the end of the month.

Looking at the whole 16-day window, the only real light at the end of the tunnel is a solid pulse of south swell arriving right at the very end. Everything else is just wind chop and dribble. We’ll get to that late burst, but first, the bad news.

The first week is a write-off. The swell is barely a ripple, and the onshore breezes are going to mess up whatever’s out there. The water temp is sitting at 64°, which is about 1° cooler than usual for the time of year, nothing to write home about. You're looking at waves around 3ft on the Wednesday morning, but it's just a crumble with a cross-on breeze. Don’t get too excited about Thursday either, the swell drops to 2ft and the energy is weak, only 51. That's a lot of effort for nothing.

There is a tiny window on Sunday the 23rd with a glassy morning, but the swell is a pathetic 1ft. You might get one close-out on a longboard but you’ll need a lot of patience. The energy is a measly 35. Later that afternoon, we see a long-period south pulse at 15 seconds, but the wind goes onshore and the swell is still only 1ft, so it’s a no-go. It's just teasing us.

The start of the next week isn't much better. Monday the 24th has a bit of south in the water, but the wind is on it, and the swell stays small. There's a brief moment on Tuesday morning, the 25th, with a moderate offshore breeze and 3ft of east-northeast swell. It would be clean, but it's also pretty weak, so don't expect any power. The energy is only 102.

Now, here is the part we’ve been waiting for. Look at the last two days of the forecast. This is where things get interesting and the whole pattern changes. A proper south groundswell shows up on Monday the 31st. The morning is cross-off with 7ft on the face, but the afternoon is the one. The wind goes offshore, and the swell jumps to 7ft with a 10-second period. The energy reading is a strong 1016. That’s the first day worth getting excited about, no doubt.

And it only gets better. The standout for the entire period is Tuesday, September 1st, in the morning. Blue Bay is going to be absolutely hammered by a big south swell. We're talking a solid 10ft and the combined energy raft is 2241, which is very strong. The wind is light and cross-off, which should keep it reasonably clean. This is a big, powerful swell for experienced surfers only. 10ft is well over the mark where beginners should be sitting on the sand.

The afternoon of the 1st gets a little messier with a cross-on breeze and the swell drops slightly to 10ft, but the morning window is the pick.

Wednesday the 2nd still has plenty of energy at 8ft, but the wind is onshore, making conditions less perfect. It’s still a fun option for those who can handle it, but it’s not the crisp, clean morning we saw the day before.

So, the call is simple. Don't even think about the surf for the next week and a half. It's a drought. But keep your eyes on the prize for the end. The swell on the 31st is promising, but the real standout is Tuesday, September 1st. That one is worth a crew and a bit of a drive. It’s going to be big and powerful at Blue Bay. Be prepared, respect the size, and it could be a classic. This one is promising, but as it’s over a week out, you know how it is, we’ll need to keep an eye on the models.

Until next time, Rusty.

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