St Tugen Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, listen up. I’ve been staring at the numbers for the next couple of weeks for St Tugen and I gotta be honest with you—it’s a real flat spell. This is one of those stretches where you might be better off checking the tide pools or taking the dog for a long walk, ‘cause the surf is gonna be a no-show for the vast majority of the outlook.

Looking at the whole 16-day picture, from now through the end of the month, it’s honestly a grind. The opening days are a write-off. Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th are a total bust—tiny little 1ft to 1ft slop, mixed up with a bit of cross-off wind and some of that cross-shore chop. It’s just not doing anything. That trend continues right through Friday the 17th, the weekend, and into the start of the following week. You’re looking at a good 10 days or so of nothing but marginal, knee-high dribble. The swell energy is lurking in the teens and twenties (weak), the wind is mostly cross-off or cross, and the periods are short. It’s a classic summer lull.

Now, there is a hint of life towards the very end of the run. On Thursday the 30th of July, we finally see a pulse of energy come through. The swell height gets up to 3ft to 4ft, coming from the WNW, with a period of 6 seconds. The combined swell energy jumps to 101 (moderate) in the morning and then 147 (moderate) in the afternoon. It’s a northwest wind swell, but it’s still short period and the wind is a fresh cross-off, so it’s going to be a bit of a messy, lumpy affair. It’s not a standout, but it’s the closest thing to a wave we’ll see. For a late afternoon session on the 30th, you might find a few more shapely ones if you’re willing to work for it.

If you’re an intermediate feeling up for a challenge that last Thursday, you could get wet. But honestly, for the beginners, that 4ft on a beach break with a short period and cross-off wind is going to be a handful and not much fun. The stronger kite surfers might find the whole setup a bit more interesting than us paddle folk.

So, the takeaway? One day of mediocre surf at the end of a two-week flat spell. The water temps are sitting at 66° on the 15th, which is a touch warmer than normal for the time of year, but that’s small comfort when there’s nothing to ride. Keep an eye on the charts, but for now, I’d save your energy.

Rusty.

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