St Tugen Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. It’s a bit of a strange run we’ve got on our hands for St Tugen. We’re in for a waiting game for the next few days. The ocean’s got some energy, but the wind is just going to be a pain, messing up what could be some fun waves.

The water’s sitting around 66°, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year. Nothing weird going on there.

We start off with a couple of days of frustration. Monday the 17th has a knee-high dribble with a weak combined energy of 41, and the wind is all over the shop. Tuesday’s not much better. We’re looking at small, weak swell with energy in the 40s and 50s. It’s just not doing anything for us.

Then Wednesday the 19th rolls in, and we see a pulse of energy jump in the water – 339, then 582 by the afternoon. The swell is starting to fill in, getting to 4ft and then 5ft, but the wind is ruining it. It’s blowing cross-onshore, and the ocean is chopped up. You’d be fighting it the whole time.

Thursday the 20th is when it gets properly big for the break. The swell peaks at 7ft in the morning, and the energy is strong at 1507. But again, the onshore wind is going to make it a messy, blown-out mess. It’s all power and no form. Not a pretty sight.

Finally, on Friday morning the 21st, we get our window. The wind swings around to a light cross-offshore from the NW, and the swell cleans right up. It’s a drop to 5ft but the energy is still moderate at 326, with a 9-second period. This is the first real chance to get some clean ones. I’d be making the most of that morning, because the afternoon gets a bit wonky again on the cross-shore.

The weekend after that is a bit of a downer. Saturday the 22nd has a bit of a pulse in the morning, 2ft but with an offshore breeze it’s clean, but the energy is weak. The swell just fades away through Sunday and into Monday the 24th, when we’ve got a fresh offshore wind blowing but barely a ripple. A couple of days with nothing doing, that’s for sure.

We’ve got a bit of a lull mid-week, and then things start to get interesting for the following week.

There’s a bit of a pulse on Thursday the 27th, but the swell gets too big. It’s pushing 10ft in the afternoon with a very strong energy of 2964 and a long 13-second period. It’s just too much for this spot, and the cross-shore wind is going to make it a washing machine. Not the one.

Friday the 28th is better, we’re down to 6ft in the morning with a cross-offshore wind, but it’s still a bit lumpy. The swells are there, but the quality isn't there.

Looking ahead to the start of the long-range window, the models are showing some serious grunt. On Sunday the 31st, we’ve got a big, long-period groundswell arriving. The morning shows 5ft at a long 16-second period, but it’s going to be onshore, which is a shame. The energy is huge though, 3096. The afternoon sees it jump to 10ft, but the wind is fresh and cross-onshore. It’s a lot of water moving around but it’s going to be a beast.

We then slide into the first of September with a fresh cross-onshore wind and big, lumpy conditions. There are waves, but it’s not going to be pretty. That long-period swell is best suited for a point or reef, not a beach break like this, especially when it’s blown out. It’s promising to be a lot of water moving but this break just won't handle it right. Keep an eye on it, but for now, I'd pencil in that Friday morning as the standout.

Anyway, that’s the picture from here. Keep it salty.

Rusty.

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