St Tugen Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, gather round. Rusty here, and we’ve got a look at the home beach, St Tugen, for the next sixteen days. Let’s be straight with each other – the first week and a half is a bit of a write-off, so don’t be rushing down there with your board just yet.

From Friday the 10th through to the morning of Monday the 20th, it’s pretty grim. We’ve got a solid ten-day stretch where the surf is either too small, the wind is a mess, or both. The swell drops right off, with combined energy sinking to a measly 9 (weak) by Monday the 13th. There are a few mornings with clean-ish offshore winds, like Saturday the 11th and Sunday the 12th, but the swell is so tiny – 2ft and 1ft – you’d be fighting for a dribble. It’s not worth the paddle.

The first real flicker of life shows up on the morning of Monday the 20th. The swell starts to push up to 5ft from the NW, with a period of 8 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 594 (moderate). That's a lot more push, but the wind is a cross-off from the N at 15 mph, which should keep it reasonably clean. The problem is the score still says it’s marginal. It’s the start of something, but not the day to call in sick for.

Now, hold on to your hats, because the standout comes on Friday the 24th of July. The morning is the real deal. We’ve got a clean 3ft groundswell from the west, with a very long period of 13 seconds. That’s proper energy, and with a combined energy reading of 354 (moderate), it’s got some muscle. But the best part? The wind is forecast to be glassy – a light NNW breeze at just 3 mph. For a spot like St Tugen, that’s about as good as it gets. The waves will be clean, lined up, and that long period will make for some proper, drawn-out rides. The crowd situation here is listed as ‘sometimes’, so you might have a few others with the same idea, but for a morning like that, it’s worth the company. The water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing to get excited about.

After that high, it backs off a bit. Saturday the 25th morning still has a surfable 3ft from the WNW with a 10-second period, and clean cross-off wind, but it’s a step down from the glassy perfection of the day before.

So, to put it simply: save your energy for the 24th of July. That Friday morning is the one to circle on the calendar. The rest of the window is either a dud or just building towards that moment.

Rusty.

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