St Tugen Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it for St Tugen. To be straight with you, the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim. There’s a whole lot of small, weak swell and onshore wind mucking things up. We’re looking at a real dry spell, with only a few brief moments where you might get a soggy burger, but nothing that’s gonna get the blood pumping.

Looking at the start, Thursday the 6th, it’s flat out disappointing. We’ve got a small 3ft swell from the WNW, but that’s running with a short period of 6 seconds and a weak combined energy of only 87. The morning has a light cross-offshore breeze, so there might be the odd cleanish wave, but it’s weak and gutless. The wind picks up in the afternoon and turns cross-shore, making it a total write-off.

Friday the 7th through to Saturday the 8th is practically a non-event. Wave heights drop to 1ft. It’s clean on Saturday morning with a light offshore wind, but there’s just no swell to work with. You’d be floating around for nothing.

We finally see a slight pulse come Sunday the 9th and into Monday the 10th, with the swell nudging up to 2ft combined with a slightly better 9-second period and moderate wave energy (around 79-82). The mornings have a light breeze that’s cross-off, offering clean shoulders. It’s surfable, but ordinary is the word. The swell direction is WNW, which is a solid angle for St Tugen, but the size just isn’t there.

From Tuesday the 11th all the way through to Monday the 17th, it’s a wasteland of poor conditions. The swell stays tiny, the wind is either cross or too strong, and the energy readings are weak, barely cracking 100. This is a proper flat spell.

Now, things get interesting around Monday the 17th of August. A solid pulse of swell arrives, lifting to 5ft overnight and hitting 7ft in the afternoon from the W. The combined energy jumps to 864, which is a lot of power. However, the wind is onshore from the WSW, and it’s labelled as marginal due to questionable tide. This is a big, messy lump, not a clean wave. For experts only if you have to get wet, but the quality just isn’t there.

Tuesday the 18th keeps the size at 7ft, but it’s hammered by a 30 km/h cross-shore wind. There’s a huge amount of energy (697), but with a short 8-second period and that wind, you’re looking at a washing machine. Honestly, with the swell size and the cross-shore wind, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The rest of the week into the 21st fades out again. The morning of Friday the 21st sees a 5ft swell from the W with a 9-second period and a moderate energy of 292, and the wind goes cross-offshore. That might be the only window all fortnight that offers a half-decent wave, but it’s still very marginal.

So, to sum it up: don’t hold your breath. If you’re desperate, the mornings of the 9th, 10th, and maybe the 21st are your only chance at a clean, small wave. The big paddle on the 17th and 18th is for the experts only and only if you like windslop. A blank run like this is more normal for the area than you’d hope.

Rusty.

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