St Tugen Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the menu for the next couple of weeks down at St Tugen.

Honestly, the outlook is a bit of a slow burn. We’re looking at a long stretch of tiny, weak waves and messy wind. For a solid week and a half, from Thursday the 23rd of July right through to the end of the month, the swell is barely a whisper. Most days you’re seeing waves between 0.7ft and 1ft, with a combined energy reading that’s often in the low double digits—barely enough to get your fins wet. The wind is a constant problem, too, swinging cross and cross-off with moderate to fresh breezes that keep the surface lumpy. It’s a real scratchy period.

The first real glimmer of hope comes on Monday the 27th of July. The morning session at St Tugen is the only standout in the whole run. The swell picks up to 5ft out of the WNW, with a 10-second period, and the combined energy jumps to 351—that’s a solid push. The wind is light and cross-off from the north at only 10 km/h, which will leave the face clean and inviting. The water temp is about average for this time of year. This is the best wave we’re going to see, offering a decent size and shape for intermediates. Crowds are a possibility here, so keep an eye out. The only downside is that by the afternoon the wind swings onshore and ruins it, so you’ve got a short window.

After that, we slide back into a patch of mediocrity. Tuesday the 28th through to the end of the month offers waves in the 3ft to 3ft range, but the breeze is always picking up and putting a chop on it. The energy levels are moderate at best, with readings in the 100-165 range.

Looking further out, the first week of August doesn’t bring much joy. The 1st and 2nd are a write-off with onshore winds and bumpy conditions. The 3rd and 4th stay tiny and weak. There’s a bit of a pulse of longer-period groundswell around the 5th and 6th, with waves around 2ft to 3ft and a period of 10-11 seconds, but the wind is onshore or cross-on, keeping it messy. The combined energy is moderate, between 121 and 137.

Then, on the 7th of August, the last morning in the forecast, we get another chance. The swell picks up to 4ft out of the WNW with a 9-second period and the energy jumps to 279. The wind swings to a light offshore from the north at 15 km/h, promising a clean surface. It’s described as marginal, but for a Friday morning in the second week, it’s the best of a bad bunch. Crowds are possible.

So, if you’re picking a session, Monday the 27th of July morning is the clear winner. The August 7th morning is a backup, but it’s a week and a half away, so treat it with a pinch of salt. For the rest of the time, it’s either flat or so wind-affected that you’re better off doing something else.

Rusty.

Read more