St Tugen Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get stuck into the outlook for the next couple of weeks.

The pattern starts quiet, but we’ve got some real promise building out there, especially for a standout session towards the end of the second week. The first few days are a bit of a write-off, so don’t rush to the water just yet.

Thursday the 10th is a no-go at St Tugen. The wind is onshore and the swell is tiny with weak energy (138). It’s poor surf. Friday the 11th morning shows a glimmer of hope with cleaner lines. A 5ft NW swell on the cross-offshore breeze, but the energy jumps to a moderate 365. It’s a decent option, but the crowd levels are going to be a factor here – it’s a spot that can get busy. The water temp is about average for the time of year.

Saturday the 12th and Sunday the 13th are a mixed bag. Saturday morning has a 3ft W swell, but the wind is cross-onshore, making it choppy. Sunday morning sees a bigger 5ft W swell with a longer period of 11 seconds and moderate wave energy (655). The wind is light and cross-shore, so it’ll be cleaner than Saturday, but still not perfect.

The first half of the following week is largely quiet. Monday the 14th has a small 3ft W swell, but winds are okay. Tuesday the 15th is poor. A real highlight arrives on Wednesday the 16th. The morning holds a 6ft WNW swell with strong wind energy (911) and a strong cross-offshore breeze, making for clean conditions. The afternoon gets even better – 7ft of WNW swell with a very long period of 11 seconds and a very strong energy reading (1690). The wind stays clean. This is one for the experienced crew, as the size is pushing into expert territory.

Moving into the second week, the biggest standout is Sunday the 20th. The morning offers a massive 12ft W swell with a very long period of 16 seconds and an enormous energy reading (6093). That’s a huge groundswell. The wind is offshore and light. However, the models are calling this too big for St Tugen, so it’s really only for the brave and the very experienced. The long period means it’ll be powerful and straight at the beach, so a point or reef would be better, but here it is what it is.

Then, the real sweet spot hits on Monday the 21st. The morning has a 7ft W swell with a 12-second period and strong energy (1194). The wind is glassy – absolutely dead calm. This is described as excellent surf for experienced surfers. If you can handle the size, this is the best session on offer. Clean, powerful, and a standout.

The last few days taper off. Tuesday the 22nd and Wednesday the 23rd see smaller surf. Thursday the 24th afternoon has a 4ft W swell, a 11-second period, and glassy conditions – a nice lighter option for the end of the run. Crowds are a possibility at St Tugen, so keep that in mind.

To sum it up, the best of the best is without a doubt the Monday the 21st morning session. Glassy, powerful, and clean. Sunday the 20th is a beast for the experts only. Don’t hold your breath for the first week, but the second week delivers.

Rusty.

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