St Tugen Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the menu for the next little while out at St Tugen.

First thing you need to know: we’re looking at a solid stretch of tiny, pretty much unsurfable conditions. The first 10 days or so are a write-off for any real wave riding. The swell is barely a whisper, with energy readings stuck down in the teens and twenties (15 to 42). There’s a bit of offshore breeze at times, but when the swell is only 0.7 ft to 1 ft with a short period, it’s a flat spell, plain and simple.

The water is 66° with an anomaly 2° warmer than the average for this time of year, so that’s a touch warmer than normal. Nice for a swim, but not for surfing.

We do get a bit of a pulse building around the 26th of July. The swell bumps up to 3 ft to 4 ft from the WNW, with moderate wave energy (104 to 149). But the wind is a messy cross-shore, kicking up a cross-chop. It’s not clean, so it’s hard to get excited. The 27th morning shows a flicker of hope with a 4 ft WNW swell, a period of 8 seconds, and a light cross-offshore breeze. The energy is moderate (173), and the conditions are clean. That’s the first time it looks surfable, but the waves are still “very ordinary”.

The real standout window begins on the 29th of July. We’ve got a 4 ft to 4 ft swell from the WNW, with a period stretching to 11 seconds. That’s a longer-period groundswell, which means better shape and more push. The combined energy jumps significantly – we’re talking 287 on the morning and a whopping 671 on the afternoon of the 29th. That’s strong wave energy. The wind stays cross-offshore and clean. This is where the quality is. For a point break or reef, this long-period WNW swell will wrap in nicely, but at a beach break, it might be a bit too straight. Still, with the clean conditions and solid energy, the 29th and 30th of July look like the best of the entire forecast. The 30th dips a little to 3 ft, but still has 200 energy and a clean cross-off. That’s a good couple of days.

After that, the swell drops back into the 3 ft to 4 ft range with moderate energy, and the wind turns more cross-shore, so the quality fades away into the first week of August.

So, the call: if you’ve got a board that floats you in tiny stuff, the 27th morning might be a fun paddle, but the real one to pencil in is the 29th of July. That afternoon, with the 4 ft, 11-second WNW groundswell and that big energy reading of 671, paired with a clean cross-offshore wind, is the best we’re going to see in this 16-day window. The crowds are listed as “sometimes”, so you might have a few others out there, but it’s not going to be a circus.

Anything over 5 ft is a no-go for beginners, and we don’t get that high, so it’s all intermediate-friendly.

Keep your eyes on the 29th. That’s the one.

Rusty

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