St Tugen Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what St Tugen has in store for us over the next couple of weeks.

We're starting off a bit slow, but there's a solid run of swell coming, especially towards the end of the first week and into the second. Water temps are sitting around 64°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so nothing weird going on there.

Sunday the 13th is a write-off, honestly. A bit of lumpy, onshore junk with a 5ft swell from the west, but the wind is all wrong. The combined energy is moderate at 565, but it's just not worth paddling out.

Monday morning the 14th is where it gets interesting. The wind drops right out, going glassy, with a clean 3ft west swell rolling in. Period's a touch short at 9 seconds, and the energy is moderate (222), but for a small, clean morning session, that's the standout for the first few days. It’s a fairly consistent spot so it’s worth a look.

After that, the wind picks up through Tuesday and Wednesday, but we start to see some proper size. Wednesday morning the 16th sees a 7ft swell from the WNW with a 10-second period. The energy jumps up to strong at 782, but it's a bit rough and windy. Wednesday afternoon, though, the energy really kicks into high gear at 1774 – that's a very strong pulse. The swell is still 7ft and the wind is cross-offshore. That's a serious amount of water moving, and for the experienced crew, that could be the best of the week. Just be aware that a 7ft swell is getting into the "experts only" territory.

Thursday the 17th is a mess with strong onshore winds and rain showers. Not worth it.

Now, here's the real standout. Friday morning the 18th. This is a big, long-period groundswell, 8ft from the WNW with a period of 15 seconds. The combined energy is a massive 3311, which is very, very strong. That is a huge, powerful, long-period swell. At a point break or reef, this would be epic, but at an exposed beach setup like St Tugen, a 15-second period swell can break a bit straight and be challenging. The wind is a cross-onshore, so it won't be perfect. This one is for the experts only, and even then, it's going to be a battle. The size alone makes it a true standout, but it's not for the faint-hearted.

The weekend of the 19th and 20th sees the swell backing off, but it stays around the 5ft to 7ft mark with moderate energy, though the wind stays a bit messy.

Looking into the second week, Monday the 21st has a clean 6ft swell with a 13-second period and a cross-offshore wind – a very good combo, with strong energy at 1045. Tuesday the 22nd drops a bit in size to 4ft, but it’s a proper offshore breeze from the NE, making for clean lines.

But the real gem of the second week is Wednesday morning the 23rd. We've got 4ft of WNW groundswell with an 11-second period and a solid NE offshore wind. The combined energy is moderate at 602, but with offshore winds, that's going to be clean, lined-up surf. It's a smaller day, but with the wind playing ball, it's the pick of the second week for a fun, manageable session. Crowds are possible here at times, so get in early.

The tail end of the forecast, from the 24th onwards, fades right off into tiny, knee-high dribble with very low energy (47 to 179), so don't hold your breath for that last week.

So, to sum it up: Monday morning the 14th is your small, glassy window. Wednesday afternoon the 16th and Friday morning the 18th are the big, powerful, expert-only swells, with Friday being a true monster. And for a clean, fun session in the second week, lock in Wednesday morning the 23rd.

Rusty.

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