St Tugen Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. The outlook for the next two and a half weeks is a tough one to call. Honestly, the surf and the conditions are mostly off, and there’s a long stretch of days where you’ll be better off tuning the board or going for a walk. The first real, rideable chance doesn’t even show up until Monday, August 10, and even then it’s nothing to write home about. After that, it’s a dead zone again, with barely a bump for the rest of the window. This is a lean period, but the area is known for dry spells like this, so it’s not unusual.

Let’s break it down.

Starting from the beginning of August, the first few days are a write-off. Monday the 3rd and Tuesday the 4th bring small, weak swell with strong onshore or cross-onshore winds—messy, chopped-up conditions. The water temp is 66°, which is about 0.9° warmer than average for this time of year, so nothing wild there, just a normal summer feel. Wednesday the 5th actually sees a jump in energy with the combined swell reading hitting 404 (moderate to strong energy) and a 6ft swell from the west, but the wind is a tough cross-onshore at 12 mph, so it’s a messy, choppy situation. That’s not a paddle-friendly day; honestly, with that much wind and cross-onshore chop, the setup at St Tugen looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Thursday the 6th through Saturday the 8th: the swell drops back to under 4ft, and the wind shifts cross-shore or cross-offshore. The wave energy falls into the weak range (under 100). The surf is small and weak, but the conditions are cleaner. The best of that weak run is Friday the 7th morning with a light cross-offshore breeze and clean little 2ft waves from the WNW, but it’s not good enough to recommend.

The first real standout, and the only one worth highlighting, is Monday morning, August 10. At St Tugen, the swell is 3ft from the WNW, with a period of 8 seconds—nothing massive, but it’s a clean, gentle offshore wind from the NNE at 9 mph. The combined energy is 79 (weak), so it’s not packing punch, but it’s surfable and the conditions are “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” The crowd factor is “sometimes,” so you might have a few others out, but not chaos. The break is fairly consistent, exposed to the swell, and the direction (WNW) is close to the optimum (WSW). This is your best bet, but keep expectations low. It’s a mellow, clean session for an intermediate surfer.

After that, the outlook dries up fast. From Monday afternoon (Aug 10) all the way through to Tuesday, August 18, the swell is tiny, the period is short, and the wind is largely cross or onshore. The combined energy drops to single digits by the end, with waves only 0.3ft to 1ft. There’s nothing rideable here. The gap is almost a full week of no recommendations.

In summary: the one real shot is Monday morning, August 10, for a clean, small, offshore session. The rest of the window is a skip. This is a normal quiet spell for the area, and forecasts can change, but for now, don’t hold your breath.

Rusty

Read more