St Tugen Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s peel the lid off the next couple of weeks for St Tugen. The whole window is a bit of a mixed bag – we’ve got plenty of swell, but the wind is going to be the main character for a lot of it, and it’s not always a friendly one. There’s a big gap at the start with no surf to speak of, so don’t bother waxing up just yet.

Right off the bat, the first few days are a write-off. From Tuesday the 25th right through the end of the month, the waves are small, or the wind is howling onshore, or both. The water is sitting at 63°, which is about 1° cooler than normal for this time of year, so pretty average. It's a real frustrating start – nothing rideable, just a lot of wind chop and blown-out mess. The combined energy is weak, mostly under 100 (91) to moderate (208, 275), but it’s all wasted with poor conditions.

We finally get a bit of a pulse on the 2nd of September, but it’s still marginal. The morning of Wednesday the 2nd sees a 7ft swell from the west, with a period of 9 seconds, and the combined energy is up to 838 (moderate). The wind is cross-shore, which is a bit messy, but it’s the first glimmer of something that’s not completely hopeless. Still, it’s not a day to get excited about.

The real stand out, the one that’s got my heart pumping a little, is Saturday the 5th of September. Look at that morning: a solid 8ft swell from the west, with a 10-second period, and the combined energy is strong at 1026. But the headline is the wind – it’s a cross-offshore breeze from the NNW at 19 mph. That’s clean. That’s the kind of wind that will groom those waves into proper lines. The waves will be a bit hefty – over 7ft, so this is for the experienced crew only. The break is exposed, and the swell direction from the west is bang on what St Tugen likes (WSW optimum). This is the best session on offer, no doubt. The afternoon of the same day stays big, with 8ft and a cross-shore wind, but it’ll get lumpy. So the morning window is the golden ticket.

The rest of the second week? It’s more of a wrestling match. The 6th and 7th of September have plenty of energy – 1160, 1397, 1439 – but the wind is consistently cross-onshore or onshore, making it choppy and lumpy. The 8th of September Tuesday morning starts with a 7ft swell and a 10-second period, but the wind is onshore, and the combined energy is very strong at 1408. The afternoon of the 8th is a real tease: an 8ft west swell with a very long 14-second period, and the energy skyrockets to 3366. That’s a massive groundswell. But it’s onshore wind again. That long period will make it break straight and fast at this beach break, so it’s going to be a wild, expert-only affair, and pretty messy. The 9th of September Wednesday sees the swell drop back to 6ft with a 12-second period, but the wind is still onshore, so it’s just another day of poor surf.

To sum it up: the first week is a total bust. The best, and really the only standout, is the morning of Saturday the 5th of September. Get it while it’s clean. The rest of the window is big, windy, and messy – more suited to the kite crew than a paddle surfer.

Rusty.

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