St Tugen Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. I’ve had a good look at what’s coming down the pipe for the next couple of weeks, and I gotta be honest – it’s a tough stretch. The whole forecast window is pretty bleak. We’ve got a run of poor surf conditions that just doesn’t want to let up.

We start off with a bit of a grim outlook. For the first day, Sunday the 23rd of August, there’s barely a ripple. The water temp at St Tugen is sitting at 64°F, which is about normal for this time of year. The wind is cross-off and it’s clean, but the swell is tiny at 1ft from the SW. The combined swell energy is a weak 49, so there's nothing to get excited about. It's a definite no-go for a proper paddle.

Things pick up a touch on Tuesday afternoon the 25th with a 2ft swell from the west and moderate combined energy of 111, but the wind is cross-on and it’s fairly choppy, so the quality just isn't there.

Then it gets a bit wild. Wednesday the 26th kicks up a short-period windswell, but it’s messy with onshore winds. By Thursday the 27th, we see the swell jump up to 8ft from the SW, with combined energy hitting a strong 798. The problem is the wind is straight onshore and strong, making it a real battle. This is expert-only territory with those sizes and the onshore wind, and honestly, it’s probably more fun for the kites than for us.

Friday the 28th gets even bigger, with an 12ft WSW swell and combined energy of 2994. The wind is a howling cross-on. This is a big, raw ocean, not a surfing wave. It stays big and messy right through the weekend, with winds from the west. There's a lot of water moving, but it's all blown out.

We get a bit of a lull going into the start of September. Tuesday the 1st of September afternoon sees a 4ft WNW swell with a cross-off wind from the NNW, and the wave state is clean. Combined energy is a moderate 152. It’s the closest we get to something surfable, but the quality is still described as poor. There’s a moment on Thursday the 3rd of September morning where the wind goes glassy at St Tugen, with a tiny 1ft swell from the WNW. It looks beautiful out there, but there’s just no power – the combined energy is only 42.

After that, the wind picks up again and it's all cross-on and choppy. A severe gale on Monday the 7th of September makes things totally blown out. Honestly, for the next 16 days, there isn’t a single standout session. It’s one of those blank runs. Don’t write it off forever though – forecasts change. Keep your eye on it.

Rusty.

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