St Tugen Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s coming for this stretch of coast in feet and miles per hour.

Honestly, the next couple of weeks are a bit of a grind. There’s nothing that jumps out as a real standout session, and we’ve got a long run of days where the conditions just aren’t cooperating. The first real chance to even get wet is on the morning of Thursday the 13th at St Tugen, and even that’s a marginal one. We’re looking at a 3 ft swell from the west with a period of 11 seconds, which gives us some energy (243) but the wind is a cross-off from the NNW at 9 mph, so it’s clean. However, the report flags it as questionable due to tide, so keep your expectations low.

That little window fades fast. Thursday afternoon and all of Friday, the 14th, the swell drops to around 3 ft to 3 ft, and the wind picks up and turns more cross, making things ordinary to poor. We then hit a real dead zone from the 15th right through to the 25th of August. That’s a solid 10-day stretch where every session is rated as poor. The swell is mostly small, under 3 ft, and when it does try to push a little—like on the morning of the 20th with a 5 ft swell from the WNW (283 energy)—the wind is cross or cross-on, messing it up. The period is short too, mostly between 5 and 10 seconds, so it’s not holding much shape.

There’s a slight tease on the morning of the 21st of August. Swell bumps to 5 ft from the WNW with a 10-second period, and energy jumps to 411. The wind is light and cross from the NW at 9 mph, so it’s gentle cross-shore with only a slight chop. The report still calls it marginal, but if you’re keen, that might be the cleanest wave of the whole run. It’s not a standout by any means, but it’s the best of a bad bunch.

After that, it drops right off again. The end of the run, from the 27th onward, has tiny 1.0 ft to 2 ft swells with very weak energy (48 to 76). That’s basically flat, with a bit of cross or cross-on wind. No real surf to speak of.

So, the takeaway? There are no true standouts in this 16-day window. The only half-decent option is the morning of the 21st of August at St Tugen, with that 5 ft WNW swell and light cross wind. It’s not going to be perfect, but it’s the only day worth paddling out. For the rest, save your energy or pick a different hobby for a while.

Rusty.

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