St Tugen Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – the next couple of weeks at St Tugen are going to be a real mixed bag, and honestly, a lot of it is pretty underwhelming. We’re looking at a long stretch where the surf is just kind of... there. Nothing big, nothing powerful, just small, weak waves that’ll have you scratching your head. The swell energy is mostly weak, with values like 86 and 93 in the coming days – those are the low numbers, mate. There’s about a week and a half of this lackluster stuff before we finally see a pulse of real energy towards the end of the forecast.

The water temp is sitting right around average for this time of year, so nothing to get excited about there – just your typical summer suit conditions.

Right now, and for the next several days, it’s all small and weak. Sunday morning the 9th has some clean, cross-off wind with a 2ft swell from the WNW, but the energy is weak (86) and it’s just not going to give you much. Monday the 10th morning is similar – 2ft but a bit more energy (93) – still, it’s “very ordinary” as we say. Tuesday the 11th is worse, with the swell dropping to 2ft and period down to 8 seconds, and the energy just dies (56). We’re looking at almost no surf at all from here.

Honestly, for about a week – from the 11th to the 17th – it’s a real struggle. There’s a small bump on the 13th with a 3ft swell and period jumping to 10 seconds, and the energy climbs to 199 in the morning and 229 in the afternoon, but it’s all cross-shore winds and choppy. Not worth paddling out for unless you’re desperate. Thursday the 14th and Friday the 15th have some cleaner windows with 3ft to 3ft swell, but the energy is still weak to moderate (102 and 130). On the 15th, the wind picks up to 19 mph in the afternoon, so that’s no good either. The 16th and 17th just fall apart, with the period dropping to 6 or 7 seconds and the swell getting messy.

It isn’t until the 20th of August, a Thursday, that we finally see something interesting. The morning looks good – cloud cover, a 4ft swell from the WNW with an 8-second period, and the energy jumps to 235. That’s a moderate-energy day, and with clean, cross-off winds from the NNE at 9 mph, it should actually be a decent, fun, clean wave. This is the standout of the whole period.

But then, the afternoon of the 20th is where it gets interesting for the crew who can handle it. The swell jumps to 5ft, the period stretches out to 11 seconds, and the energy explodes to 624. That’s strong energy. The wind is cross-off from the NNW but bumping up to 16 mph. This is the big one, but it’s a bit of a caveat. That 5ft is pushing into the “too big for beginners” territory, and with that longer period, it might be breaking a bit too straight for a beach break like this. It could be a bit tricky, but for the experienced surfer, that’s the session to be out for.

Friday the 21st keeps the size with a 5ft to 5ft swell and the energy is still very strong, hitting 819 on the Friday afternoon. The wind is fresh from the NNW at 19 mph though, which will chop things up. It’s big, but the conditions might not be clean enough to make it truly epic.

After that, it fades back down into the small stuff for the 22nd and 23rd, and the 24th has a 4ft swell but with a weak period and light cross-shore winds, so it’s marginal at best.

So here’s the bottom line. If you want to surf in the next week and a half, you’ll be fighting for scraps of whitewash. The real window is Thursday the 20th and Friday the 21st of August. That Thursday morning is the pick for most of us – clean and fun. The Thursday afternoon and Friday have the size and energy, but you’ll need to be on your game, and the wind might make it a bit of a battle. This is a long stretch of nothing, but that one day should make it worth the wait. Forecasts can always shift, so keep an eye on it.

Rusty, out.

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