St Tugen Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's be straight with you: this outlook for St Tugen is a long, slow burn. The next week and a half is going to be a test of patience. We’ve got a lot of onshore and cross-shore wind messing up some small, weak swell, so it's not going to be pretty for a while.

To start, the water temp here is sitting at about 65°F, which is right around the average for this time of year. No strange warm or cold pockets to worry about.

For the first several days, from Friday the 7th through to at least Tuesday the 12th, the surf is basically a no-go. The swell is tiny, mostly under 2ft, and the period is short and junky. The energy is weak, too, with values barely scratching 100. Friday morning is glassy, but there's just nothing to ride. It's flat, frustrating stuff.

We finally see a little pulse of life mid-week, around Wednesday the 12th and Thursday the 13th, with the swell picking up to 3ft. The energy climbs into the low hundreds, which is more moderate, but the winds are still all over the place, keeping things messy. The WNW and WSW direction is okay for St Tugen, which really wants that WSW groundswell, but it's just not clean enough to get excited about.

Then we get to the back half of the second week, around the 17th and 18th. The swell is starting to show a bit more size, hitting 5ft on Monday morning, the 17th, but the period is still only 8 seconds and it's cross-on. It's not going to be a pretty wave. The energy jumps up to strong territory though, hitting 267. Still, for a beachbreak, this kind of short-period, cross-onshore swell is a mess. Honestly, with the wind and the chop, a spot like this looks more interesting for kite surfing than for getting a proper paddle session in.

The standout window, and I mean the only real one, appears to be Wednesday the 19th and Thursday the 20th. The swell is up to 5ft with a 9-second period, and more importantly, that morning wind is a clean, cross-offshore from the NNW. It's still a long way out, so call it promising rather than a dead cert, but this is the best-looking stretch on the board. The energy will be strong, around 299-315, which tells you there's some real push out there.

The one to keep an eye on is St Tugen itself. With that W and WNW swell, and that cross-off wind, it could finally get some shape. At 5ft, it's not for the groms, but for the intermediates and above, glassy clean conditions could make it worth the paddle. That's your pick, but it's a long time away and things can change.

Don't hold your breath for that last week. By Friday the 21st and into Saturday the 22nd, the wind is forecast to go strong and onshore from the SSW and WNW, with rain showers. The swell looks big—over 8ft—with a huge energy spike over 1600, but it's going to be blowing out. That is a paddling nightmare and it's heading to expert-only territory at best. Not a good look.

So there you have it. A whole lot of nothing, and then a small window of hope around the 19th and 20th. It’s a long range call, so we’ll have to see how it shapes up. Keep an eye on it, but don't plan your life around it.

Rusty.

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