St Tugen Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into the forecast for our local patch. We’ve got a long stretch of quiet days ahead before things finally kick off, so patience is the name of the game.

The first week or so is a real write-off. From Sunday the 19th right through to Tuesday the 28th, the surf is just too weak and messy to bother with. Swell heights are tiny, mostly under 3 ft, and the energy is pathetic – the combined energy reading is often in the teens or twenties (40 or less). Even with some clean offshore winds in the mornings, there’s simply no power to work with. It’s a classic summer flat spell, and you’re better off doing something else.

The first real glimmer of hope comes on Wednesday morning, the 29th of July. That’s when we see a proper pulse of swell. St Tugen picks up a clean 6 ft of swell from the WNW, with a period of 10 seconds. That’s a solid groundswell, and the combined energy reading jumps up to 1197, which is strong. The wind is a light cross-offshore breeze from the north, keeping the surface clean. This is the standout session of the whole window. The size is pushing into intermediate territory, so it’s not for total beginners, but for experienced surfers, this is your time. The water temp is about average for this time of year.

The quality drops off that afternoon as the wind swings more cross-shore, but the following morning, Thursday the 30th, still has some decent leftovers at 4 ft with a clean bump. The energy is still moderate (271). After that, we get a few more days of building but messy swell. By Saturday the 1st of August, the swell is up to 7 ft with a very strong energy reading of 1587, but the wind is mostly cross or cross-on, and the conditions are rated as marginal. This is big, powerful stuff – 8 ft plus is expert-only territory, and this is getting close. It’s likely to be a battle, and the beach breaks will be closing out. For a spot like this, it might be more interesting for the kite crew than the paddle crew. The session on Monday the 3rd of August looks like a return to cleaner conditions with a 5 ft swell and a light offshore breeze, offering a final chance at some fun waves.

So, to wrap it up: ignore everything until the 29th of July. The real standout is the morning of the 29th – that’s the one to circle on the calendar. The long-range stuff around the 1st has power, but the wind is a real question mark.

Rusty.

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