St Tugen Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's cooking for the next couple of weeks down at St Tugen. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, so we're gonna have to be patient.

Overall, the pattern is pretty messy for a while. We’ve got a lot of onshore and cross-shore winds messing up what little swell we get, with most days being a write-off. The water temp is sittin' around 63°, which is about average for the time of year, nothing out of the ordinary.

For the first several days, it’s a tough watch. From Tuesday the 25th right through to Tuesday the 1st of September, there’s really nothing doing. Small swell directions are all off, and the wind is constantly on it or chopping it up. The combined energy is weak to moderate, usually under 300 or so, and the surf quality is just poor. There’s a bit of a bump on Thursday the 27th and Saturday the 29th with some bigger swell (6 ft to 8 ft), but straight onshore winds ruin it. Even the bigger 8 ft swell on Monday the 31st August is only marginal due to choppy cross-shore conditions. Honestly, it looks more like a stretch for kiting than paddling.

There’s a solid gap in the quality here – about 11 days of pretty average to poor conditions with no standout windows.

Now, the first real glimmer of hope comes in late in the forecast. You want to circle Sunday, the 6th of September. That morning is the stand-out. St Tugen is looking clean with an offshore breeze from the ENE at 6 mph. The swell will be a clean 5 ft from the WNW (optimum is WSW, so it's a bit side, but it works), with a period of 10 seconds and combined energy of 480 – moderate but solid. The wind being light offshore makes it glassy and offers the best chance of some clean, lined-up walls. This is the session to aim for if you can wait.

After that, Monday the 7th and Tuesday the 8th of September are sloppy again, but then look at Wednesday the 9th of September. The morning has an 8 ft swell from the W with a period of 9 seconds and energy reading 1140. That’s moderate-strong. The real story is the wind: glassy, dead calm. The swell’s a bit solid, pushing into the "experts only" range, but for anyone with the skills, that is going to be a heavy, incredible sesh at St Tugen. The afternoon is still decent, but the wind comes more cross-on.

So, to wrap it up: the run is long and bleak until that Sunday the 6th of September. The only two real standouts are that Sunday morning and the Wednesday the 9th of September morning for the bigger, glassy stuff. Get on it.

Rusty.

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