Packery Channel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your wettie and paddle out – here’s the long-range look for the next couple of weeks.

The short story is this: we’re in a pretty flat and junky stretch. There’s surf on offer most days, but it’s small, short-period, and the wind is mostly cross-onshore or onshore. Don’t get your hopes up for anything epic. We’ve got a run of poor conditions for the bulk of the window, and it’s not until the very end, around the 27th and beyond, that we might see a little more juice and slightly cleaner conditions – but even that is a week and a half out, so treat it as a promising maybe, not a sure thing.

The only named spot in the mix is Packery Channel (Texas). That’s our home base for this whole outlook. It’s a fairly consistent breakwater setup, but it’s a beginner-oriented wave and it’s almost always crowded. The water temp is sitting at 84°F, which is about normal for this time of year. For the first few days it’s weak, messy – the kind of surf that’s barely worth the paddle out. Expect waves around 4ft on Saturday morning, but with that short, 6-second period and a cross-on wind, it’ll be choppy and lumpy. The energy is weak, too, with a combined swell energy of just 72. This pattern holds through the weekend and into next week: small 2ft to 3ft surf, mostly short-period, and winds that are never truly offshore. The only thing that changes is the breeze picking up from the southeast on Thursday the 20th, making things even more washed out.

The middle of next week, the 24th and 25th, brings slightly bigger, but still short-period swells from the southeast. It’s your classic “lots of whitewater, not much push” situation. The energy numbers do tick up a bit – 76 and 75 on those days – but it’s still going to be a messy, close-out affair with the onshore wind. Not the time to be a hero. Keep expectations in the basement.

Then, here’s the bright spot, such as it is. The 27th and 28th of August, Thursday and Friday, finally show a little more life. The swell period bumps up to 7 seconds – still not a groundswell, but better – and the wind backs off slightly in the morning. On the 27th, we’re looking at 3ft from the ESE with a gentle cross-onshore breeze, with combined energy climbing to 68 and 70. It’s the most interesting we get in the whole window, but it’s still marginal. That’s a long-range promise, so given the track record of this forecast, I’d temper your excitement. The last couple of days, the 29th and 30th, the swell backs off again and we’re left with small, crumbly leftovers.

Bottom line: there’s nothing here that’ll make you call in sick to work. The one potentially passable window is the 27-28th, but it’s a week and a half away. If you’re desperate, maybe get out on the 24th or 25th for some small, gutless rides, but don’t expect any glory. For the most part, this is a “watch the forecast and hope” situation.

Alright, I’m gonna go check the tide charts.

- Rusty

Read more