Packery Channel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer for the next couple of weeks.

Well, I gotta be straight with you – it’s a tough stretch. The finder shows zero recommendations for the whole 16-day window. The only spot in the mix is Packery Channel. This is a breakwater setup that’s exposed to the swell, but the trouble is, we just don’t have any decent swell lining up. The water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first possible surfable day doesn't really pop up until the 24th of August, and even then, it’s pretty grim. Monday morning the 24th brings a tiny 0.7 ft swell from the ESE with a period of 9 seconds. The combined energy is a weak 18, and with a cross-shore SSW wind at 9 mph, it’s just a mess of chop. That sets the tone for the whole first week. Monday afternoon through to Sunday the 30th is a rinse and repeat of tiny swells – mostly 1 ft to 3 ft – with periods of 4 to 5 seconds. That’s all short-period windswill, and the winds are almost always onshore or cross-onshore from the SE, meaning the surface is choppy and blown out. The combined energy never gets above 45, which is just weak sauce.

There’s a gap of several days here with absolutely nothing to get excited about. The pattern doesn’t shift until we get into the second week. The morning of the 2nd of September is a tease – the wind goes glassy, with a slight air from the SSE, so the surface would be clean. But the swell is still a pathetic 2 ft from the SE at 5 seconds. You’d be out there on a 9’ log praying for a bump. After that, it’s back to the onshore grind.

The only real change comes on the 7th of September, Monday morning. The swell finally starts to show some life, pushing up to 5 ft from the SE with a period of 6 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 167 (moderate). But here’s the kicker – the wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-onshore from the SSE. That’s going to be lumpy, messy, and barely rideable. It’s not a standout; it’s just the least-bad day in a flat spell. For a beginner break like Packery, that 5 ft is already pushing it, and with that wind, it’s going to be a battle. This setup honestly looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

So, the bottom line: There is no best day. There is no stand-out window. The entire 16-day forecast is a write-off for decent waves. It’s a flat spell, and around here, that happens. Forecasts change, so keep your eye on it, but for now, I’d be checking the wind forecast for a glass-off day and taking the longboard out for a flat-water paddle if you’re desperate.

Stay wet,
Rusty

Read more