Packery Channel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Looks like we’re in for a long flat spell along the Padre Island National Seashore, so let’s get real about what’s cooking – or not cooking – at Packery Channel.

Right off the bat, don’t get your hopes up. From Thursday the 16th of July all the way through to the end of the month, we’ve got nothing but a run of poor surf conditions. The first few days have a little bit of swell – around 3ft to 4ft from the southeast – but that short period of just 6 seconds means weak, crumbly waves with bugger-all push. The cross-onshore wind is blowing a steady 16 mph, kicking up a choppy mess. Wave energy is low to moderate (99 to 126), certainly nothing to write home about. The water temperature is about what you’d expect for this time of year, so no surprises there – it’s average.

As we move into the middle of the window, say from Sunday the 20th of July onwards, the swell drops right off. Heights sink below 3ft, periods are short at 5 seconds, and the combined energy slides into the weak zone (under 56). Wind stays cross-onshore and the surface just gets chopped up. By Tuesday the 22nd of July, we’re looking at knee-high slop at best, with energy as low as 20. This pattern of tiny, poor-quality surf hangs around for a solid week. A stretch like this is a real bummer, but it happens in these parts – you just gotta wait it out.

Now, there is a tiny flicker of hope right at the tail end. On Thursday the 30th of July, the afternoon shows a bump in swell period to 8 seconds, with height around 3ft from the east-southeast, and the energy climbs to 144 – borderline moderate. But the wind is onshore and it’s still classed as poor. Then Friday the 31st of July morning sees the biggest swell of the whole outlook: 5ft from the east-southeast, period of 8 seconds, and a solid moderate energy reading of 277. That’s the most interesting pulse we get, but again, wind is cross-onshore at 16 mph, and it’s still graded poor. It’s not a standout – it’s just the best of a bad bunch. Honestly, for experienced surfers with a big tolerance for chop, that Friday morning might be worth a look, but beginners should stay clear of anything over 5ft anyway. Crowds? Packery Channel is always busy, so you’ll have company, but the conditions won’t be worth fighting for.

In short: we’re looking at over two weeks of flat to poor surf. Keep the board in the car for a speculative check on that Friday the 31st of July, but don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

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