Packery Channel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a proper surf around here. The swell is tiny, the wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and the score is just not there. We’ve got a long stretch of poor conditions ahead, so don’t get your hopes up for anything clean until the very tail end of the forecast.

There’s nothing worth paddling out for right now. The first few days are all showing tiny waves around 2 ft to 2 ft from the SE and SSE, with periods of only 4 to 5 seconds. That’s weak, short-period windswell, and with the wind blowing onshore or cross-onshore from the ESE and SE at 12 to 16 mph, it’s going to be a choppy mess. The combined energy is low, barely cracking 15 (13-15) for the first couple of days. Water temp is sitting at 86°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s something, but it doesn’t help the waves.

This flat, windy pattern drags on. Through the rest of the first week and into the second, we’re looking at the same story: swell heights mostly between 2 ft and 4 ft, still from the SSE or SE, with periods stuck at 4 to 6 seconds. The wind keeps blowing onshore or cross-onshore, and the combined energy only climbs to 82 by the morning of the 12th (Saturday) – still weak. The 14th and 15th show a slight bump to 4 ft, but it’s still onshore junk. By the 16th (Wednesday), there’s even a risk of thunderstorms. Honestly, this stretch is a write-off for paddle surfing.

We do finally see a glimmer of hope on the 19th of September (Saturday morning). The wind shifts to a light cross-offshore from the north at 9 mph, and the swell is 3 ft from the ESE with a 6-second period. The combined energy is a modest 64. The key here is the wind – that cross-offshore breeze will clean things up. Packery Channel is the spot to watch for this window. It’s a breakwater, fairly consistent, and with that north wind, it should be the cleanest we’ve seen in two weeks. The swell is small, but it’ll be rideable for the beginner crew. Just be aware that crowds are always an issue here, so get there early. The water temp is still a touch warmer than average.

Following that, the 20th and 21st see the wind go back onshore, and the swell stays small and weak. The energy finally picks up a little on the 22nd of September (Tuesday) with the combined energy hitting 109 and 137, and swell up to 4 ft from the ESE, but the period is still only 6 seconds. The wind is onshore from the E and ESE, so it’s likely going to be choppy and messy again. That’s a long way off, and the forecast is less certain, but right now it doesn’t look like the standout we were hoping for.

So, the only real highlight is the morning of Saturday the 19th. It’s not big, but it’s clean. The rest of the period is a bust. For kite surfers, the constant onshore wind and small, choppy waves might actually offer some fun, but for paddle surfing, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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