Packery Channel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Well, I’ve looked at the charts for our stretch of coast, and I’ve got to be straight with you: it’s a pretty flat, boring run for the next couple of weeks. The swell just isn’t there, and to make matters worse, the wind’s going to be a pain in the arse for most of it. If you’re keen for a paddle, you might get a few small waves, but you’ll be fighting a cross-onshore breeze that’s going to chop things up.

The only spot that’s even on the radar is Packery Channel, and even that’s a tough sell. It’s a breakwater setup that’s fairly consistent, but it’s always crowded, so you won’t be alone. The water temp is sitting at a warm 84°, which is about normal for this time of year. But the biggest issue is the wind. From Sunday morning onwards, it’s cross-on or onshore, mostly from the southeast. It’s not howling, but a 12-15 mph breeze in your face all day will make those small waves messy.

Let’s run through it. Sunday morning is the best of the lot, and that’s not saying much. The swell is a tiny 3 ft from the SSE with a short 5-second period, so it’s weak and crumbly. The combined energy is only 36, which is feeble. The wind is a light 3 mph from the southwest, which is cross-off, so the surface might be clean for an hour or two. It’s a beginner-friendly size, but don’t expect anything with any punch. By Sunday afternoon, the wind swings onshore and picks up to 12 mph, and it just gets worse from there.

For the entire first week, the swell stays small, bouncing between 2 ft and 4 ft. The period is short, around 5-6 seconds, so it’s junky, wind-slop. There’s a slight bump on Thursday afternoon where the swell hits 4 ft and the combined energy finally creeps over 100 (to 106), but the wind is a moderate 15 mph cross-on, so it’s going to be a choppy mess. That’s not surf; it’s more like paddleboard wrestling.

We’re looking at a solid week of this. Every single day has "poor surf conditions" flagged. From the 2nd through the 9th, it’s more of the same: small, weak, and onshore. There’s no standout, no window of clean glass, just a lot of bump.

Looking further ahead into the second week, it doesn’t get any better. The swell stays small, under 3 ft for most of it, with the same short periods and cross-onshore winds. There’s a chance of a thunderstorm on the 12th, but that’s not going to save us. The energy readings are all in the weak 30-60 range, which tells you there’s just nothing behind these waves. It’s going to be a long, flat spell.

Given the small, weak swell and the persistent onshore wind, Packery Channel is going to be more interesting for the kite surfers than for anyone on a paddleboard. The setup is just not doing us any favors.

So, bottom line: there’s nothing worth getting excited about in this 16-day window. It’s a blank run. Packery is fairly consistent, so it tends not to stay this poor for long, but right now, I’d be looking at other hobbies. Keep an eye on it, but don’t hold your breath. Forecasts can change, but as it stands, the surf is not your friend.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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