Packery Channel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this outlook for the next 16 days is a tough one. We’re looking at a long stretch of poor surf conditions at Packery Channel, with nothing really worth paddling out for. The first surfable recommendation doesn’t kick in until Saturday the 18th of July, and even then it’s a real struggle.

From Saturday the 18th right through until the end of the month, it’s a pattern of small, weak, wind-affected swell. The combined energy of all swells directed here sits mostly between 14 and 103 (weak to low-moderate). The swell sizes hover around 0.7 ft to 4 ft, with periods of just 4 to 6 seconds—short-period, wind-driven junk. The wind is almost always cross-on or onshore, from the SSE or SE, blowing at 9 to 19 mph, keeping the surface lumpy and choppy. The water temp is about 84°F on the 18th, with a normal anomaly of 0.7°F, so nothing unusual there.

The so-called best on offer? You’d have to look at Monday the 27th of July morning, when the swell pushes to 4 ft from the SSE, period 6 seconds, and the combined energy hits 83. But the wind is a fresh cross-shore at 19 mph, so it’s a lumpy, messy mess. Not a standout by any stretch.

Then there’s a small uptick around Thursday the 30th of July, with swell hitting 5 ft from the SSE, period 6 seconds, and combined energy climbing to 145 (moderate). The wind is still cross-on at 12 to 16 mph, so it’s choppy and poor. For experts only if you’re desperate, but really, it’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle-surfing one.

The only real standout in the whole window is Friday the 31st of July. The swell hits 6 ft from the SSE, period 6 seconds, with combined energy of 222 (moderate-strong). The wind is a gentle cross-on at 9 mph in the morning, which is the lightest it gets all stretch. Still, it’s a short-period swell, so shape will be poor. For beginners, 6 ft is too big, so this is for experienced surfers only.

Looking into the second week, from Saturday the 1st of August onward, the swell drops back to 4 ft to 5 ft, with onshore winds from the ESE or SE at 12 to 19 mph. Combined energy stays moderate (116 to 228), but the wind is relentless and onshore, so the surf will be blown-out and messy. Nothing to get excited about.

Overall, this is a blank run for quality surf. Packery Channel is a breakwater setup, exposed to the SE, but the wind and lack of groundswell make it a washout. Crowds are always there, but with conditions this poor, you’ll have the place to yourself. Keep an eye on the forecasts—things can change.

Rusty.

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