Packery Channel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s call it like I see it.

Right now, we’ve got a 16-day window and, honestly, it’s a tough one. The first solid surf recommendation isn’t until August 9th, so that’s a long stretch of nothing but small, onshore junk. From Tuesday the 28th of July all the way through the 8th of August, it’s a flat, ugly spell. The swell is tiny – mostly under 3 ft – and the wind is cross-onshore from the SSE and SE nearly every day, from a light breeze up to a fresh 19 mph. A few mornings, like the 2nd and 3rd of August, have a super weak 3 ft to 3 ft wave with only light wind, but the period is short (5-6 seconds), and the wave energy is pitiful (46-67). It’s not surfable, just bumpy and messy. You’re better off doing something else.

The first real glimmer comes on Sunday the 9th of August. We see a bump in swell size to 4 ft from the SSE, and the combined energy finally gets up to 86 (Sunday morning) and 74 (afternoon). But it’s still cross-onshore at 16-19 mph, so it’s going to be lumpy and blown out. That’s not the standout.

The best on offer, by a long shot, is the period starting Tuesday the 11th of August through Wednesday the 12th of August. On Tuesday morning, the swell hits 5 ft from the SE with a period of 6 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to a solid 161 – that’s moderate energy. Tuesday afternoon holds at 4 ft with 124 energy, and Wednesday morning stays at 4 ft with 117 energy. That’s the biggest, strongest swell in the whole window. It’s still cross-onshore, unfortunately, so expect chop, but for a spot like Packery Channel, this is the time to go if you’re an experienced paddle surfer. The water temp is sitting at 84° with a 0.5° anomaly – about average for this time of year, so the water’s warm. The swell direction (SE) is off the optimum for this break which is SE, so it’s coming in exactly right. But the crowds are listed as “always,” so expect it to be packed.

Wednesday afternoon brings a stronger 22 mph cross-onshore wind that will make it a lumpy mess, and after that, the data trails off. So, your best bet is Tuesday the 11th and Wednesday morning the 12th. It’s not perfect, but for a region that’s had a dead run for over a week, that’s the only real pulse in the whole 16 days. For beginners, that 5 ft swell might be a bit much, especially with the wind.

If you’re a kite surfer, this whole stretch might look better than paddle surfing. The consistent cross-onshore wind with moderate chop and these small swell heights is more your game, especially from the 28th of July through the 8th of August.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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