Packery Channel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's be straight with you. I've looked over the outlook for Packery Channel, and mate, I'm not gonna sugar-coat it. For the next sixteen days, it's a tough stretch. We're looking at a long run of small, onshore-slanted conditions that are just going to leave you frustrated if you're looking for a proper surf.

Right from the get-go, starting Friday the 24th of July, the water temp is sitting at a comfortable 84°, which is about average for this time of year. But that's where the good news ends. The wind is stuck in a cross-on pattern from the SSE and SE, swinging up to a fresh 19 mph at times, just chopping everything up. The swell is tiny, hanging around 2 ft to 3 ft with a short-period of just 5 to 6 seconds, and the combined energy is weak (mostly under 100). It's poor surf, plain and simple.

This grim run keeps rolling through the end of July and into the first week of August. The wind stays cross-on, the swell stays small and weak. There's a slight bump in the energy numbers towards the end of the first week, but the direction is still from the SSE to SE, which isn't the optimum SE direction for this break.

Now, looking into the second week, things *do* tick up a bit in size. From about Monday the 3rd of August, we start seeing swell heights hovering around 3 ft to 5 ft. The period extends slightly to 6 to 7 seconds, which is a bit more direction, and the combined energy climbs into the moderate range (101 to 187). But here's the kicker: every single record shows "poor surf conditions". The wind is relentless on that cross-on shore, keeping the surface lumpy and choppy, especially in the afternoons when it gets up to 19 mph again.

There's a moment on the morning of Wednesday the 5th of August where we see 5 ft of SE swell with a 7-second period and the highest energy of the whole run at 187, but that wind from the SSE at 12 mph is just going to junk it up. It’s a classic case of "there's swell but you can't surf it cleanly".

For the absolute best of a bad bunch, if I had to pick a window, I'd point to the period from the 5th to the 7th of August. We get the biggest swell of the whole 16-day forecast at 5 ft from the SE, giving the best chance of a few rideable waves. But with the persistent cross-on wind, you're still fighting chop. It's not a screaming standout, just the least worst option. For a beginner spot, that 5 ft swell with a choppy surface starts getting a bit tricky. And with crowds listed as "always" here, you'll be sharing the mediocre waves with everyone else.

So, what's the call? The whole 16-day window is a write-off for quality surf. We're looking at a solid two weeks of onshore wind and weak, short-period swell. It’s the kind of blank run that’s pretty normal for this area in this pattern. Unless you're desperate for a paddle and don't mind the chop, save the energy. With that persistent cross-onshore wind, this setup looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer.

Stay patient.

Rusty.

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