Packery Channel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. We’ve got a 16-day look at the surf scene, and I gotta be straight with you: it’s a tough stretch. The forecast is pretty grim for a solid run, with no real quality on offer. The first record points to Monday afternoon, and from there it’s a long, flat, and choppy slog.

Right out of the gate, the water temp is sitting at about 84°F at the start, which is pretty average for this time of year, nothing to write home about.

The first few days are all about tiny, weak swell. Monday afternoon the 17th kicks things off with a measly 2ft from the ESE, but it’s a short-period 6 seconds, and with a 12 mph onshore wind, it’s just a messy, blown-out mess. The combined energy is a weak 25, and it’s labeled “poor surf conditions.” This sets the tone.

Tuesday the 18th through to the end of the first week is more of the same. Small swell of 2ft to 3ft, mostly from the SSE or SE, with periods of 4 to 6 seconds. The wind is a constant cross-onshore breeze, 9 to 19 mph, keeping the surface choppy and lumpy. There’s no real energy, with combined energy values stuck in the 20s, 30s, and 40s. It’s all “poor surf conditions” – not worth paddling out for.

The second week doesn’t offer much relief. The mornings of the 27th and 28th of August flash a little hope. Thursday morning the 27th has a tiny 2ft swell from the SE, but the wind finally swings offshore from the W at just 3 mph. The water gets clean, and the report says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” It’s a 1/10, so it’s the best we’ve got, but it’s still tiny. Then Friday morning the 28th is glassy with a 3ft SSE swell, but again, it’s just “surfable” at best. The energy is up to 66, but it’s still weak.

After that, it’s back to the choppy, onshore grind for the rest of the period. The very end of the forecast, the 1st of September, sees slightly bigger surf of 4ft, but the period is still short at 5 seconds, and the wind is onshore, so it’s just more messy, blown-out conditions.

The only break in the data is Packery Channel, a breakwater spot that’s always crowded. It’s exposed to the SE, and the optimum swell is from the SE, but the swell we’re getting is too weak and jumbled to make it work. For a beginner spot, the swell never gets above 5ft, so it’s not too big, but the quality is just not there. The wind is never right.

Honestly, this is a stretch of weather where you’re better off doing something else. There’s no standout, no session to get excited about. The forecasts can change, but right now, the only thing that looks half-interesting is the glassy morning on the 28th – and even that is a serious stretch to call "surfable."

Rusty.

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