Packery Channel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the next couple of weeks. I’m not gonna sugarcoat it – it’s a real rough stretch of surf for this spot. The whole 16-day window is a long run of blown-out, messy conditions, and there’s hardly a moment worth paddling out for. The wind is just relentless from the south and southeast, ruining whatever small swell tries to show up. The whole period is a write-off, and there’s a big gap of nothing but poor surf from the start all the way through to the end.

The only break we’ve got is Packery Channel (Texas), and it’s a tough one for this forecast. The water temp is sitting at 84°F right now, which is about 1°F warmer than average – nothing too crazy, just a little warmer than usual for this time of year.

The first real chance of anything worth mentioning is a tiny pulse on Friday, July 10th, but it’s no good. Swell is a weak 3ft from the SSE, short period of 5 seconds, and the wind is a fresh cross-onshore at 19 mph. The combined energy is a measly 42 – that’s weak, mate. It’s just a mess.

Saturday the 11th stays poor with 4ft from the SE, period 6 seconds, and cross-onshore wind at 12 mph. Sunday the 12th is more of the same – 3ft, 6 seconds, cross-onshore again. The whole weekend is a no-go.

Midweek from Monday the 13th to Thursday the 16th, the swell bumps up a bit, hitting 4ft to 4ft from the SE, with periods still stuck at 6-7 seconds. The combined energy climbs into the low 100s (124 to 164), so it’s moderate energy, but the wind is consistently cross-onshore at 12-19 mph – it’s choppy, lumpy, and just plain ugly. The wave comment says it all: “poor surf conditions” every single day.

Friday the 17th to Tuesday the 21st, the swell drops back to 2ft-4ft, energy falls below 100 again, and the wind stays cross-onshore. There’s a little break in the wind on Tuesday the 21st morning with a gentle breeze at 9 mph, but it’s still cross-onshore and the swell is only 3ft from the SSE at 5 seconds – not enough to get excited about.

The last few days, from Wednesday the 22nd to Saturday the 25th, show a bit more size. Swell builds to 5ft-6ft from the SSE, with periods of 6 seconds, and combined energy hits 143 to 232 – that’s solid moderate energy. But the wind is still cross-onshore or cross-shore, and the wave comment is still “poor surf conditions.” The 5ft-6ft swell is a bit much for beginners, and with the short period and onshore wind, it’s choppy and messy. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing – the wind’s strong enough and the waves are just a sloppy mess.

So, there’s no standout here. Not a single day where the wind lines up with the swell. The best you could hope for is maybe the gentler cross-onshore days on the 21st or 22nd, but the swell is tiny and weak. It’s a blank run, and for this area, that’s pretty normal when the wind doesn’t cooperate. Forecasts can change, but right now, I’d save your energy.

Rusty.

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