Packery Channel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. Rusty here.

Right off the bat, I gotta tell ya – this forecast for Packery Channel is pretty grim for the next couple weeks. The first sign of anything even close to decent doesn’t show up until Wednesday the 15th, so we’re looking at a solid 8-day dry spell for any kind of surf. That’s a tough stretch if you’re itching to get wet.

Before that, from Tuesday the 7th all the way through Tuesday the 14th, it’s all poor surf conditions. Small swell, constant cross-onshore wind, and choppy, lumpy water. Not worth paddling out for. The combined swell energy is weak, usually under 157, with a brief jump on Tuesday the 21st, but that still comes with poor conditions and fresh cross-onshore breeze. This is a breakwater setup exposed to the southeast, and it’s just not getting the right combo of wind and swell.

Now, Wednesday morning July 15th – that’s the one little window worth talking about. We’ve got a tiny 0.7m swell from the south, period of 5 seconds, and the wind goes glassy. Just a slight air, no wind at all. That’s a rare treat for Packery. The combined energy is weak, but when it’s glassy, it’s glassy. The water temp is sitting at about 84°F and it’s pretty normal for this time of year – warm and sticky. This is the only time in the whole 16-day run where you might scrape together a couple of rideable little waves, but honestly, it’s still very ordinary.

After that, from Thursday the 16th right through to Wednesday the 22nd, it’s back to poor surf and cross-onshore slop. The swell bumps up to about 6 ft on the 21st and 22nd, but with a steady 35 km/h SSE wind, it’s lumpy, messy, and just not fun for a paddle. For a beginner spot like this, that’s too much size and too much wind. Kite surfers might get a kick out of it, but for the rest of us, it’s a no-go.

Crowds at Packery are always an issue, but with so little quality on offer, you’d have the place to yourself on that Wednesday morning. That’s the one highlight, if you can call it that. Keep your expectations real low.

So bottom line: one brief, glassy morning on the 15th with tiny swell is the only thing that even registers. The rest is a long, boring wait. But hey, forecasts change, and this spot does get consistent swell sometimes. Don’t give up hope.

Rusty.

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