Packery Channel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's be real about what's on the table for the next couple of weeks. We've got a pretty grim stretch ahead, and I'm not gonna sugarcoat it. The only spot that's even in the conversation is Packery Channel, and it's a tough sell.

Right now, starting Friday the 17th, it's a write-off. We've got a cross-onshore wind straight out of the SSE at 19 mph, and the swell is a weak, short-period 4 ft from the SE. The combined energy is a paltry 116 (weak), and the water is sitting at a warm 84°, which is pretty much average for this time of year. But the conditions are just poor – lumpy and choppy. This is not a day for a paddle. It's more of a “watch the pros” or a “kite session” kind of day if you're into that.

This poor pattern locks in through the weekend and into the start of the following week. Every day, from the 17th through to at least the 22nd, we're looking at the same story: cross-onshore winds, tiny swell, and poor surf. There's a solid 5-day gap here where you'd be better off doing anything else. The swell drops to basically nothing – we're talking 0.7 ft to 2 ft from the 20th to the 22nd. The energy numbers are in the teens and twenties (weak), and the period is often a pathetic 4 to 5 seconds. It's flat, and it's ugly.

Things don't really get any better as we roll into the second week. From the 23rd of July right through to the end of the month, it's a constant stream of "poor surf conditions." The wind stays onshore or cross-onshore, and the swell never gets its act together. We see a few glimmers of 3 ft swell on the 28th and 29th, but it's coming from the SSE with a short 5-second period and the wind is a fresh 16 to 19 mph. The energy numbers for those days are around 56 to 60, which is still weak. It's just messy.

The only tiny window that might offer a *slight* reprieve is right at the end of the run, on the 31st of July. It's still not great, but the swell bumps up to 3 ft from the ESE with a slightly better 8-second period, and the energy climbs to 93. The wind is still cross-onshore, but it's a gentler breeze. It's still a long way from good, but it's the closest thing to “maybe worth a look” in the entire 16-day window. Then into the 1st of August, we get a 3 ft from the SE, but it's still cross-onshore and choppy.

Honestly, the best option on offer, and I'm scraping the barrel here, is that very end of the period on the 31st of July and 1st of August at Packery Channel. The swell direction is from the ESE and SE, which is in the ballpark for the optimum. The wave heights are manageable at 3 ft to 4 ft. But the wind is always an issue, and the crowds are *always* there. It's a breakwater, exposed to the swell, but it's a beginner spot and the waves are going to be soft and choppy. There's no standout quality here. The entire forecast is a bust.

This is a classic summer lull. It's a blank run for the area, and it's not unusual. The forecasts can change, but right now, I'd leave the boards in the car and enjoy the beach.

Rusty.

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