Packery Channel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee, let’s have a look at what we’ve got for the next couple of weeks.

To be honest, it’s a pretty bleak stretch for most of the run. We’ve got a long gap of poor conditions from now until nearly the end of the third week of September. Don’t get your hopes up early on, the wind is a mess and the swell is tiny.

For the first week, from Wednesday the 9th right through to Sunday the 13th, it’s all cross-onshore and onshore wind with weak, short-period swell. Swell energy is well under 100, barely scraping into moderate territory for a couple of morning sessions, but the wind just wrecks any chance of a clean wave. About the only thing worth noting early is that on Wednesday morning the 9th, the water temp is sitting at 86°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. But that’s small comfort when the surf is poor.

We get a little window on Friday the 18th in the morning where the wind goes glassy. Swell is still only 3ft from the ESE, period is a short 6 seconds, so the energy is weak (60). It’s surfable but very ordinary. That’s the only real mention of anything rideable, but it’s not a standout by any means.

Then there’s another gap of several days with nothing worth paddling out for until we get into the last week of September. On Wednesday the 23rd, we finally get a shift: a strong cross-offshore wind from the NNW at 25 mph, and the swell picks up a touch to 3ft from the east, period still short at 6 seconds, but the energy jumps to 84. Conditions are described as clean. That’s the first real glimmer of hope.

But the real standout is on Thursday the 24th. That morning, we’ve got a solid 8ft east groundswell with a very long period of 13 seconds. The combined swell energy is huge – 2190 (strong). Wind is a strong offshore from the NW at 28 mph, and it’s clean. This is proper groundswell energy, so expect well-shaped, powerful waves. Now, at 8ft and with that period, this is expert-only territory at Packery Channel. Beginners shouldn’t even think about it. The long period will make the waves suck hard and dump, especially on a breakwater setup. Also, it’s worth noting that this is a spot exposed to swell from the SE, and the swell is coming from the east, so it’s not quite on the optimum direction, but with that size and period, it’ll still offer up something special. Crowds are always a factor here, so expect it to be busy with the guys who know what they’re doing.

That Thursday the 24th session is the true standout of the whole 16-day window. Everything before that is mostly a write-off.

Rusty.

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