Packery Channel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's be straight with you – this forecast window is a tough one. We’re looking at a long, flat stretch for the most part, so don't get your hopes up for any hero waves. We’ve got a solid run of small, messy surf and tricky winds that’ll have you shaking your head for the next week and a half. The good news? There are a couple of windows near the end where it cleans up enough to be worth a paddle.

Right off the bat, Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th are write-offs. We're talking ankle-biters at 2ft, with a light onshore breeze on Monday that will just put a crinkle on the surface. By Tuesday, the wind picks up and swings cross-onshore, making things choppy and uninviting. The swell energy is weak, sitting in the 25-31 range, which tells you there’s just nothing out there.

Wednesday through the following Tuesday keep the same vibe. The swell stays in that 2ft to 3ft range. The combined energy does bump up a bit, hitting 45 and even 78 on Friday morning, but that short 4-5 second period means it’s just wind-slop, not real surf. The winds stay mostly cross-onshore, keeping the surface lumpy and uninviting. Honestly, it’s a week of looking at the ocean and thinking, “Nah, not today.”

Now, there is a bit of light at the end of the tunnel. Around Saturday the 23rd and through to Tuesday the 26th, the morning sessions are still small at 3ft to 3ft, but the wind eases to a gentle cross-shore or light cross-onshore. It’s not clean, but it’s not a washing machine either. Still, I’d call it a ‘have a look’ rather than a ‘get excited’ situation. The wave state is still describing things as "poor".

The first real glimmer of hope arrives on Thursday the 27th of August. We finally see that wind drop to nothing for the Packery Channel (Texas) morning session. It’s glassy, flat calm, with just a whisper of a breeze. The swell is still small at 3ft but from a consistent SE direction with a 5-second period. It’s surfable, but it’s very ordinary. The combined energy is only 45, so it’s a low-key, fun-sized morning on a longboard. This might be the pick of the bunch for the less powerful days.

For the true standout, you have to wait until Friday the 28th of August. This is the one to circle. The morning starts off with a light offshore breeze from the NW and a glassy surface. The swell bumps up just a touch to 4ft from the ESE, and the period stretches to 7 seconds, which gives it a little more push and shape. The combined energy jumps to 128, which is the most we’ve seen all forecast. This is the best combination of size, wind, and energy in the whole 16-day window. The later afternoon backs off into onshore slop with a bigger reading of 4ft, so the early bird definitely gets the worm here. The crowd factor is a concern, so get there early because everyone will have the same idea.

Saturday the 29th of August also offers a similar setup: a glassy morning with 4ft ESE swell and a 7-second period, with energy at 125. There’s even a risk of a thunderstorm which could keep some people away. It’s a close second to Friday, but Friday just edges it on the wind and the slightly larger swell.

After that, we fade back into the small, weak stuff as we head into the first week of September. Nothing to write home about. The water is sitting at 84°F, which is about normal for this time of year, so you won’t need a spring suit.

So, to sum it up: grind through the first ten days. Your best bet is the glassy morning on Thursday the 27th, but the real standout is the morning of Friday the 28th. Get on it early, and you might just score a clean little wave.

Rusty out.

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