Packery Channel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here again. Let's cut to the chase. The next couple of weeks are looking grim for surf. We've got a real dry spell on our hands. I'm not seeing a single window worth getting wet for. It's a long stretch of small, weak, short-period swell and persistent onshore wind. The energy levels are mostly weak, like 18 and 23, and while we see a slight bump into the moderate zone around the 12th and 13th with readings over 100, it's nothing but lumpy, wind-blown junk. This might be the longest flat spell we've seen in a bit.

The only break we've got data on is Packery Channel. It's a breakwater setup, exposed to that southeast swell, but it's just not working. It's listed as fairly consistent, but the consistency is in producing poor surf. The water temperature is about normal for this time of year, so no surprise there. This is one of those times where the forecast looks bleak, but it doesn't usually stay this bad for long. Forecasts can change, so I wouldn't write the whole month off just yet.

Now, for the details. Saturday the 8th starts with a tiny 2ft southeast swell, a period of 5 seconds, and a glassy morning. Sounds good, but the energy is weak (23), and by afternoon the wind picks up and ruins it. Sunday the 9th is more of the same, with a small, mushy swell and a cross-on breeze. Monday the 10th gets slightly bigger, to 3ft, but the wind is blowing 20-30 km/h, making it choppy and lumpy. It's not even close to surfable.

Midweek sees a slight bump in energy. Wednesday the 12th gets to 4ft but with a 6-second period. The energy moderates (104), but it's still a cross-onshore mess with winds around 30-35 km/h. This is looking more like a kite-surfing day than a surfing one. Thursday the 13th holds that 4ft size, but the wind stays on it, and the energy (112) doesn't translate to shape. It's just messy water. The weekend and the following week just fade back into the same pattern: small, weak swell and cross-onshore wind. Even by the 23rd, we're still looking at 3ft, 5-second slop.

The standout here is that there is no standout. If you're just learning, the water is warm and you could get some white-water practice, but the conditions are poor. For anyone else, it's a hard pass. There's no length to the swell period at all—everything is under 7 seconds, so there's no power. Packery Channel needs that southeast energy, and it's just not showing up. We're in for a blank run, and it might last the entire window. Keep your board in the car, but don't bother waxing up.

Rusty.

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