Packery Channel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: looking at this 16-day window for the Packery Channel area, it’s a tough stretch. The forecast is basically a long, flat, and bumpy road with no real detours to quality surf. We've got a solid two weeks of small, weak, and mostly onshore wind-blown conditions. It’s the kind of forecast that makes you think about re-spooling your reels or finally fixing that leaky roof, because chasing waves out there is going to leave you frustrated.

The first week, from the 5th to the 11th, is a write-off. We're looking at swell heights barely sneaking past 3ft, with periods hanging around a short, weak 5-6 seconds. That’s just wind chop. The energy readings are low, in the 30s to 50s range, which is about as weak as it gets. To make matters worse, the wind is mostly cross-on or straight onshore from the southeast, making the water choppy and messy. The only slight relief is a light breeze on the morning of the 8th, but the swell drops to 2ft, so it’s not exactly going to be firing. It’s poor surf, plain and simple.

The second week, from the 12th through the 18th, doesn’t offer much hope either. The swell ticks up a touch, reaching 4ft on the 13th, 14th, and 15th. But the period is still stuck at 5-6 seconds, so it’s just a bit more lumpy, not better. The energy levels get a little more moderate on the 14th and 15th, hitting the 70s and 80s, but the persistent cross-on breeze from the southeast is going to keep it lumpy. By the 17th and 18th, the wind really picks up, with fresh breezes hitting 18-22 mph. That’s when the setup at Packery Channel, which is a breakwater, looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddler. The water is going to be a mess.

Looking further out to the 19th and 20th, the wind doesn't back off, staying in the 15-18 mph range, and the swell stays small at 2-3ft. There’s just no clean window in this entire run.

I’m not going to sugar-coat it: there are zero good surf options in this 16-day window for Packery Channel. The consistency is there, but it's consistently bad. The break is a fairly consistent spot, so it tends not to stay poor for long, but this is a blank run that will test your patience. Forecasts can change, but as it stands, leave the board in the car and save your energy for a better day.

Now, for the water temp: on the morning of the 5th, the water is sitting at 83°F, which is about normal for this time of year. So at least it will be warm while you’re getting skunked.

Keep the faith. The surf will come back.

Rusty.

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