Packery Channel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's get straight into it.

Look, I'll be honest with you – it's a tough stretch ahead for Packery Channel. We've got a solid 16 days of forecast, and the news isn't great. We're looking at a long, dry spell of poor surf conditions straight through. The first real chance of a wave doesn't show up until around Saturday the 15th, and even then, it's a bit of a struggle.

The entire first week and a half is a write-off. From Thursday the 6th right through to Friday the 14th, it's all poor surf. Winds are predominantly cross-on or onshore from the SE or SSE, kicking up chop and ruining any shape. Swell heights are tiny, bouncing between 1ft and 4ft, with short periods of 5 to 6 seconds. That's windswell, not groundswell. The combined wave energy is weak, barely cracking 100 (mostly in the 30s and 40s). Honestly, the water temp is a nice 84°, about normal for the time of year, but you'll just be floating in a washing machine. For beginners, it's not dangerous, just frustrating.

Finally, around Saturday the 15th, we see a bit of a pulse. The swell bumps up to 3ft to 4ft from the SE, and the period stretches to 7 seconds. The combined energy hits a moderate 115. But here's the catch – the wind is still cross-on from the SSE to SE, 12 to 16 mph, keeping it choppy. It's still rated as poor surf. This is the best we've got, but it's not a standout by any stretch. For a beginner, that 4ft is manageable but the chop will make it a handful.

Sunday the 16th looks similar: 3ft to 4ft SE swell with a 7-second period, giving moderate energy (140 in the morning). But again, cross-on winds ruin the party.

The second week continues this theme. From Monday the 17th through to Friday the 21st, we're back to tiny, weak swell (2ft to 4ft) with short periods (5-6 seconds) and persistent cross-on winds. The combined energy drops back to weak levels (40s and 50s). It's a tough run.

This is a spot that's exposed to the SE, which is the swell direction we're seeing, so the angle is there. But the wind is just relentless from the wrong side. With this setup – a breakwater, always crowded, and constant onshore wind – I'd say this looks way more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The water's warm, the wind's up, but the waves are a mess for a surfboard.

So, to sum it up: don't bother until maybe the weekend of the 15th-16th, and even then, keep your expectations on the floor. It's a long blank run, but forecasts can change. Keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

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