Packery Channel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is Rusty, and I’m looking at the next couple of weeks for our local stretch.

Honestly, it’s a tough outlook. We’ve got a real dry spell on our hands. From now through to the morning of September 10th, there’s just nothing worth paddling out for. The swell is small, the wind is mostly cross-onshore or onshore, and the water’s a mess. You’re looking at a solid week and a half of flat, choppy conditions. It’s the kind of stretch that tests your patience.

Then, come the morning of Thursday the 10th, we start to see a little bump in energy. The combined swell energy reads 108 (moderate), and the swell is 4ft from the SE with a period of 6 seconds. But the wind is still a cross-onshore from the SSE, and the word is “poor surf conditions.” It’s a tease, not a wave.

Friday the 11th is where it finally gets interesting. The morning shows a 6ft swell from the SE with a period of 7 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 309 (moderate). The wind shifts to a cross-shore from the S, leaving us with only a slight cross-chop. That’s our best window. Packery Channel is the spot, and it’s a breakwater setup that’s exposed to the SE. The swell direction is exactly what this break likes. The water temp is about average for this time of year. The downside? Crowds are always a thing here, so expect it to be busy. This is the one to circle. The morning session is the pick, with the wind behaving.

Saturday the 12th sees the swell push up to 7ft in the morning, and 8ft in the afternoon, with combined energy hitting 618 (strong). That’s a solid wave, but it’s getting big. At 7ft, it’s getting too much for beginners, and by 8ft, you’d best be an expert. The wind stays cross-onshore, so it’ll be a bit lumpy. It’s powerful, but not clean.

Sunday the 13th drops back to 6ft, still with that cross-onshore wind. It’s surfable, but you’re fighting the chop.

By Monday the 15th, the swell fades to 3ft from the ESE, period a short 6 seconds. But here’s the kicker – the wind goes glassy from the WNW. That’s a clean, empty morning. The energy is weak (57), but for a log or a longboard, it could be a fun, glassy session. Worth a look if you’re desperate and local.

So, to sum it up: the first ten days are a write-off. Friday the 11th morning is the standout. Get on it early, expect a crowd, but the swell is good and the wind is light. After that, it’s a bit of a mixed bag with size and chop.

Rusty.

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