Packery Channel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you about what’s cookin’ for Packery Channel. This is going to be a tough stretch for board riders and it’s a long haul ahead.

Right from the start, we’re not looking at anything worth paddling out for. The whole of the 16-day window is a write-off for proper surf. The waves are tiny, the wind is junk, and the conditions are just messy. From Sunday the 12th right through to Monday the 27th of July, every single session is rated as poor surf conditions. That’s a solid two weeks-plus of nothing doing. The swell is coming from the southeast, but it’s weak, short-period stuff – mostly around 6 seconds, which is just windswell chop. The combined wave energy is weak, barely cracking 100 for most of the first week, though it does build into the 200s (moderate energy) around the 17th, and again on the 25th through the 27th, with readings hitting 277. But even then, the swell height is only 5 ft to 6 ft, and the period is still just 7 seconds – that’s not the kind of energy that’s gonna shape up any decent lines.

The wind is the real killer here. It’s nearly always cross-onshore or directly onshore, blowing from the SSE or SE, and it’s anything from a gentle breeze to a fresh breeze. That means it’s choppy, lumpy, and messy. On the 22nd, the wind swings more cross-shore, but it’s still not clean. The water temp on that first Sunday morning is 84°, which is about what you’d expect for the time of year – no real anomaly to get excited about.

Packery Channel is a breakwater setup, always crowded, and it’s exposed to the swell directions we’re getting. But with the wind blowing straight onshore or cross-onshore, the waves are just going to be a jumbled, choppy mess. For a beginner spot, the swell height never really gets over 6 ft, so it’s not too big, but the quality is just terrible.

The only highlight, if you can call it that, is the last few days from the 25th to the 27th, when the swell builds a little. But the wind is still a problem – cross-onshore at 25 to 30 km/h. The wave energy is moderate (214 to 277), and the swell is 5 ft to 6 ft from the SE with a 7-second period, but it’s going to be lumpy and rough. Honestly, with that setup, this stretch looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer.

So, the bottom line: don’t waste your time. There’s nothing worth surfing over the entire 16-day forecast. The surf is poor, the wind is bad, and it’s just not gonna happen. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a solid blank run for Packery.

Rusty.

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