Packery Channel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cooking for the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, it’s a tough stretch. The forecast is a long, dry spell of poor surf, and I mean that literally – there’s not a single day in the whole 16-day window that gets a recommendation. The good news? It’s clear skies, but the bad news is that’s about all we’ve got. We’re looking at a gap that starts now and just keeps going with nothing to recommend.

We’ll start at Packery Channel. This is a breakwater setup, so it’s exposed and needs swell. The water temp is sitting at 84°F with a tiny anomaly of 0.4°F, so it’s about average for the time of year – warm, but nothing wild.

The first couple of days, Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th, see a little pulse of energy with swell heights around 4 ft to 4 ft from the SE, but the period is a short, weak 6 seconds. The wind is a cross-onshore breeze, blowing 16 to 19 mph, which is just making a mess of things. The combined energy is weak to moderate (values between 82 and 116), but the wave comment is "poor surf conditions" across the board. It’s choppy, lumpy, and not worth paddling out for.

From Sunday the 19th through the end of the month, the swell drops off a cliff. Heights fall to 0.7 ft to 3 ft, with periods bouncing between 4 and 9 seconds. The wind stays stubbornly cross-onshore, and the energy readings are all in the double digits (16 to 99), which is just weak. The only slight change is on Wednesday the 22nd afternoon where the wind goes "on" for a second, but the swell is a pathetic 0.7 ft – you’d be floating more than surfing.

Towards the end of the first week and into August, things pick up a touch. On the 30th of July, swell builds to 5 ft, and by the 31st it’s hitting 6 ft from the SE with a period of 7 seconds. The energy jumps to 278, which is moderate. But again, the wind is a fresh cross-onshore breeze at 19 mph, and the conditions are still "poor." The same story continues into the 1st of August with 6 ft swell and 386 energy, but the wind is still cross-onshore.

This is a stretch where the beach setup combined with the constant onshore wind makes it more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The swells are there, but they’re getting shredded by the wind. For a beginner spot, anything over 5 ft can be too much, and by the 31st and 1st of August, it’s pushing 6 ft to 6 ft, so it’s not ideal for learning either.

There’s just no standout here. The entire forecast is a bust. It’s one of those blank runs that happens. The area is inconsistent by nature, and when the wind is wrong, you’re left waiting. Keep an eye on the long-range, but for now, leave the board in the car.

Rusty.

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