Packery Channel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at the cards for the next couple of weeks.

To be honest, we're looking at a pretty grim run ahead. The forecast is a long stretch of nothing special. For the first ten days, from Saturday the 25th of July right through to the morning of Tuesday the 4th of August, it's a write-off. The swell is tiny, mostly around 2ft to 4ft, and the wind is a constant cross-onshore, making everything choppy and messy. The combined wave energy is weak, in the low double digits, like 76 or 43, which tells you the ocean just doesn't have any punch. The water temperature is sitting at a warm 84° with a tiny anomaly, so it's about as normal as it gets for this time of year, but that's no consolation when there's nothing to ride. You'd be better off leaving the board in the car.

Now, there is a tiny glimmer. On Wednesday the 5th of August, the morning is the only time in the whole outlook that actually looks surfable. The swell bumps up to 5ft from the SE with a period of 6 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 181 (moderate). The key thing here is the wind goes glassy. That's a massive positive for Packery Channel (Texas), because clean conditions are rare in this outlook. The waves will be ordinary and not great, but at least they'll be rideable. The swell direction is right on the money from the SE, which is the optimum for this spot. It's a breakwater setup, so it can handle a bit of size, but 5ft is still fine for a beginner with a bit of experience. Just be aware, crowds are always a factor here, so expect some company.

After that, it's back to the poor stuff. The wind goes back onshore, the swell drops, and the energy fades. By Sunday the 9th of August, the swell actually gets bigger at 7ft from the ESE with a period of 8 seconds, and the combined energy is a massive 452 (strong). But the wind is a fresh cross-onshore at 19 mph, turning it into a lumpy, choppy mess. That's not surfable; that's a kite-surfing setup. Avoid it.

Saturday the 8th of August has a tiny 3ft swell from the ESE with a 7-second period, but the wind is cross-on, so it's still a no-go.

So, the only standout in this whole 16-day window is the morning of Wednesday the 5th of August. It's not a world-class day, but it's the only clean option we've got. Everything else is a hard pass. It's a long dry spell, but that's the way it goes sometimes.

Rusty.

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