
Surf Forecasts:
Packery Channel surf forecast from 16 Jul 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Friday 17 Jul, 4AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 6s period, SE swell with 167 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Packery Channel this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Packery Channel in the next 16 days are 1.5m 6s and forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 17) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (CDT) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 4AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 5ft (1.5m) 6s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Packery Channel over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Looks like we’re in for a long flat spell along the Padre Island National Seashore, so let’s get real about what’s cooking – or not cooking – at Packery Channel.
Right off the bat, don’t get your hopes up. From Thursday the 16th of July all the way through to the end of the month, we’ve got nothing but a run of poor surf conditions. The first few days have a little bit of swell – around 3ft to 4ft from the southeast – but that short period of just 6 seconds means weak, crumbly waves with bugger-all push. The cross-onshore wind is blowing a steady 16 mph, kicking up a choppy mess. Wave energy is low to moderate (99 to 126), certainly nothing to write home about. The water temperature is about what you’d expect for this time of year, so no surprises there – it’s average.
As we move into the middle of the window, say from Sunday the 20th of July onwards, the swell drops right off. Heights sink below 3ft, periods are short at 5 seconds, and the combined energy slides into the weak zone (under 56). Wind stays cross-onshore and the surface just gets chopped up. By Tuesday the 22nd of July, we’re looking at knee-high slop at best, with energy as low as 20. This pattern of tiny, poor-quality surf hangs around for a solid week. A stretch like this is a real bummer, but it happens in these parts – you just gotta wait it out.
Now, there is a tiny flicker of hope right at the tail end. On Thursday the 30th of July, the afternoon shows a bump in swell period to 8 seconds, with height around 3ft from the east-southeast, and the energy climbs to 144 – borderline moderate. But the wind is onshore and it’s still classed as poor. Then Friday the 31st of July morning sees the biggest swell of the whole outlook: 5ft from the east-southeast, period of 8 seconds, and a solid moderate energy reading of 277. That’s the most interesting pulse we get, but again, wind is cross-onshore at 16 mph, and it’s still graded poor. It’s not a standout – it’s just the best of a bad bunch. Honestly, for experienced surfers with a big tolerance for chop, that Friday morning might be worth a look, but beginners should stay clear of anything over 5ft anyway. Crowds? Packery Channel is always busy, so you’ll have company, but the conditions won’t be worth fighting for.
In short: we’re looking at over two weeks of flat to poor surf. Keep the board in the car for a speculative check on that Friday the 31st of July, but don’t hold your breath.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Thu morning. Warm (max 28°C on Wed night, min 27°C on Wed night). Mainly fresh winds. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 28°C on Sun morning, min 27°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 6 | SE 6 | SE 6 | SE 6 | SE 6 | SE 6 | SE 6 | SE 7 | SE 5 | SE 6 | SE 7 | SE 5 | SE 5 | SE 5 | SSE 5 | SSE 5 | SE 5 | SE 4 | SSE 4 | ESE 9 | SE 4 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
96 | 87 | 132 | 126 | 96 | 75 | 109 | 113 | 80 | 59 | 91 | 60 | 39 | 27 | 33 | 15 | 12 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 8 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | on | cross-on |
High Tide | 7:45AM0.47m | 2:30PM0.39m | 7:50AM0.40m | 4:39PM0.34m | 7:47AM0.34m | 6:28PM0.31m | 7:41AM0.31m | 8:29PM0.30m | 7:33AM0.30m | 11:22PM0.33m | 7:10AM0.31m | 2:03AM0.40m | 3:05AM0.45m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 1:31PM0.39m | 11:38PM-0.15m | 1:17PM0.31m | 00:30AM-0.03m | 1:43PM0.21m | 1:24AM0.09m | 2:21PM0.12m | 2:28AM0.21m | 3:06PM0.04m | 4:26AM0.30m | 3:53PM-0.03m | 4:42PM-0.08m | |||||||||
6:43 | — | — | 6:43 | — | — | 6:43 | — | — | 6:43 | — | — | 6:45 | — | — | 6:46 | — | — | 6:46 | — | — | |
— | 8:25 | — | — | 8:24 | — | — | 8:24 | — | — | 8:24 | — | — | 8:23 | — | — | 8:23 | — | — | 8:22 | — | |
mm | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
Feels °C | 29 | 29 | 28 | 30 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 28 | 30 | 29 | 28 | 30 | 30 | 29 | 31 | 30 | 30 | 32 | 29 | 29 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 9 | SE 9 | — | — | — | SE 10 | — | SE 11 | ESE 10 | SSE 8 | ESE 10 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | SSE 8 | ESE 9 | SSE 5 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | SSE 4 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 |
3 | 3 | — | — | — | 4 | — | 5 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 8 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ESE 9 | — | — | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | — | ESE 9 | — | — | ESE 9 | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8 | — | — | 8 | 8 | — | 8 | — | — | 8 | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SE 7 | — | ESE 9 | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 6 | SE 6 | SE 6 | SE 6 | SE 6 | SE 6 | SE 6 | SE 7 | SE 5 | SE 6 | SE 7 | SE 5 | SE 5 | SE 5 | SSE 5 | S 5 | SE 5 | SE 4 | — | SE 4 | SE 4 |
96 | 87 | 132 | 126 | 96 | 75 | 109 | 113 | 80 | 59 | 91 | 60 | 39 | 27 | 33 | 7 | 12 | 16 | — | 5 | 6 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 1034 | 1132 | 1030 | 1034 | 1132 | 1030 | 1034 | 1134 | 1030 | 1034 | 1071 | 1030 | 1034 | 1132 | 1030 | 1034 | 1132 | 1030 | 1034 | 1132 | 1030 |
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Information about the Packery Channel Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Packery Channel provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Packery Channel can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Packery Channel surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Packery Channel) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Packery Channel may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Packery Channel is 28 km (17 miles) from Corpus Christi. If you plan a vacation in Texas, look for hotels and other accommodation in Corpus Christi. Corpus Christi has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










