Packery Channel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is a tough one to call, but I’ll level with you. For the next 16 days, the surf at Packery Channel is looking pretty grim. There’s not a single day that I’d say is truly worth paddling out for, so we’re looking at a long, dry spell. The water temp is sitting at 84°, which is about average for this time of year, so at least you won’t freeze while you’re sitting there waiting for a wave that never comes.

The forecast kicks off on Saturday July 11th with a tiny 3ft swell from the SE, but it’s wrapped in a sloppy onshore breeze. The combined energy is weak (50), and the wave quality is just poor. That same story repeats itself day after day. Sunday the 12th has a cross-on wind and a little 3ft SE swell, but it’s choppy and messy. Monday the 13th bumps up to 4ft, and the energy climbs into the moderate range (113), but the wind is still cross-on from the SSE at 15 mph, turning it into a washing machine. The period is short, only 6 seconds, so there’s no real push to the waves.

Tuesday the 14th, Wednesday the 15th, Thursday the 16th… it’s the same sad song. 3ft to 4ft SE swell, periods hanging around 5-7 seconds, cross-on winds, and the “poor surf conditions” tag follows every single row. The energy metric stays in the low to moderate range (58 to 130), but it’s wasted on the onshore chop. Even Friday the 17th, with a slightly bigger 4ft swell and energy hitting 131, the wind is still cross-on, so the surface is just lumpy. The second week doesn’t get any better. From Saturday the 18th all the way through to Sunday the 26th, you’re looking at 2ft to 4ft swells, almost always cross-on or onshore winds, and periods that rarely crack 7 seconds. The combined energy drops back under 100 often, and it’s all classified as poor surf.

There are two glimmers, but they’re barely worth mentioning. On Saturday July 25th morning, the wind goes glassy from the W at just 3 mph, and the comment says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” The swell is a tiny 3ft from the SSE with a short 5-second period, but the glassy conditions are a major positive. Then on Sunday July 26th morning, the wind is dead calm, glassy, with a 3ft SSE swell. Again, the comment is “surfable waves but very ordinary.” These are the only two windows where the wind is clean, but the swell is weak and short-period. The combined energy is only 50-56, so it’s not going to be punchy.

Overall, this is a blank run. The break is exposed to the SE swell and the optimum direction is SE, so the swell direction is right, but the wind is almost always cross-on. The period is too short for any real quality. With such consistent poor conditions, a beach-and-reef setup like this looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. Forecasts can change, but right now, leave your board in the car.

Rusty

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