Packery Channel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for the next couple of weeks.

To be real with you, it’s a tough stretch. The whole 16-day window is looking pretty flat and messy. We’re staring at a long run of days where the surf just isn't offering anything worth paddling out for. The first recommendation doesn't even pop up until the start of the window, and honestly, it’s a struggle to find a silver lining.

The only spot on the cards is Packery Channel. It's a breakwater setup, so it needs a fair bit of juice to get going, and we’re not getting that. The water temp is sitting at 84°, which is about normal for the time of year, so at least you won't need a wetsuit.

We kick off on Tuesday, July 21st with a tiny 2 ft swell from the south, but it’s a short period (5 seconds) and a cross-onshore wind from the SE at 12 mph. The combined energy is a weak 19, and the report says "poor surf conditions." That’s the theme.

Wednesday the 22nd morning looks a bit cleaner with the wind swinging SW and light, giving a cross-off breeze. The swell is still tiny at 2 ft and short period. It’s clean, but there’s just no power behind it. That afternoon, the wind swings back onshore.

Thursday the 23rd afternoon sees a slight bump to 4 ft from the south, but again, it’s a 5-second windswell. The combined energy hits 82, which is still weak. The wind is cross-off from the SW, so it’ll be clean, but the waves will be lumpy and gutless. It’s just not going to be a good time.

From there, it’s a rinse and repeat of small, underpowered swells (3 ft to 4 ft) from the SSE or SE, almost always with a cross-onshore wind. The period stays stuck at 5 seconds the entire time, which means no power, no shape. The wind picks up to a fresh breeze at times, making it choppy and lumpy. For a beach break setup like this, the combination of weak swell and onshore wind is a recipe for a frustrating session.

Even when the wind goes light or cross-shore, like on Friday, July 31st morning, the swell is a pathetic 3 ft at 5 seconds. The combined energy is a measly 27. You’d be floating out there.

The pattern doesn’t change. The whole run up to August 5th is the same story: small, weak, short-period swell, and mostly crappy wind. If you’re a beginner, the size is fine, but the conditions are just not good. There’s no standout, no day to get excited about. For a spot that’s “fairly consistent,” this is a real bummer of a forecast.

The energy is just pathetic. With combined energy values barely cracking 80, and mostly sitting in the 20s to 70s, this is a forecast for staying on the beach. There’s simply nothing to work with.

So, that’s the hard truth. It’s a blank run for the next 16 days. Keep your stick on the car and hope the forecasts change.

Rusty.

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