Packery Channel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s break down what’s cooking on the surf front.

Honestly, it’s a rough look ahead. For the next sixteen days, we got a long dry spell. The first time you’d even think about getting wet isn’t until around July 11th, and even then, it’s nothing to write home about. We’re talking over a week of poor conditions before anything halfway decent shows its face.

The only spot in the mix is Packery Channel, a breakwater setup that’s exposed but made for beginners. The issue? The wind is almost always cross-onshore, from gentle to fresh, keeping the surface chopped up and messy. Water temp is about 84°F, which is average for this time of year, but you won’t care much with all that texture.

Let’s walk through it. From Monday July 6th through the 10th, we’re looking at tiny swell, mostly 2ft to 3ft, from the SSE or SE, with a short period of 4-5 seconds. The energy is weak, barely registering. It’s just poor, plain and simple. Not worth the walk.

Things get a little better on Saturday July 11th, with the swell climbing to around 4ft from the SE and a period of 6 seconds, and the energy hits the low 100s. But that wind is still cross-onshore at 16 mph, turning any potential wave into a washing machine. Sunday the 12th is a bit lighter, but the swell is still small.

The one window that might have you thinking is Tuesday July 14th. The swell hits 5ft from the SE with a 7-second period, and the energy is a moderate 183. The wind on Tuesday morning is light cross-onshore, only 3 mph, which is about as clean as it gets in this stretch. That’s your best shot. There’s another bump on Sunday July 19th with 5ft swell and energy hitting 237, but the wind cranks up to a fresh 19 mph cross-onshore, turning it lumpy and rough again.

Truth is, for the entire 16-day run, every single forecast calls it “poor.” There’s no true standout day. The best you got is that Tuesday morning on the 14th, where it’s at least rideable. With the constant onshore wind and the breakwater setup, this whole stretch might actually be more fun for the kite surfers than for us paddle guys.

So keep your board in the car, but don’t get your hopes up. It’s a flat, choppy run, but that’s the hand we’re dealt. Forecasts can always change.

Rusty.

Read more