Packery Channel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – the next couple of weeks are looking flat as a pancake for the most part. There’s no real swell to speak of, so we’re in for a long stretch of small, choppy conditions that won't get the heart pumping.

We’re staring down the barrel of a pretty bleak run. From now, right through to the end of the forecast, there’s not a single standout day. The earliest we might see anything even rideable is around the 10th of September, but even then it’s just not enough. The water temp is about what you’d expect for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Let’s break down the only game in town. Packery Channel – this is a breakwater spot that’s exposed to the southeast. It’s a beginner-friendly wave, but honestly, the conditions are just poor. The combined swell energy is weak, barely registering (15–46 range), with the swell coming from the SSE or SE at a tiny 1ft to 3ft. The period is short, around 4–7 seconds, meaning it’s just windswell with no power. And to make matters worse, the wind is almost always cross-onshore or directly onshore from the SSE, SE, or ESE, blowing at 6–19 mph. That’s putting a chop on everything. Even the lightest breezes on the 10th and 16th only give you a tiny cross-onshore bump.

There’s no one day that’s better than the rest. Every single entry says “poor surf conditions.” It’s a relentless pattern of small, weak, and choppy. Crowds are always an issue here, but with nothing to ride, it won't matter much. With the consistent onshore winds and lack of any decent swell, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

If you’re a surfer, this is a two-week gap to do something else. Check the oil in your car, clean your board, or just accept that the Gulf has gone to sleep. Forecasts can always change, but right now, it’s a no-go.

Rusty.

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