Packery Channel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a good, hard look at what’s coming down the pipe for the next couple of weeks.

Well, I’ll be honest with you, it’s a pretty grim stretch on the horizon for our area. We’re looking at a solid 16-day window with nothing to get excited about. The whole run is a write-off, to be honest. The forecast is filled with "poor surf conditions" from start to finish. There’s a gap of zero recommended surf from now all the way through the 14th of August, so don't be holding your breath for a session.

The first break on the list is Packery Channel. This is a breakwater setup that’s exposed to the south-east. The water temp is sitting at a warm 84°, which is about 0.9° above the norm, so nothing unusual there—just your typical summer bathwater.

The main issue here is the wind. For the entire forecast period, it’s a constant onslaught of onshore and cross-onshore breezes from the SSE and SE. They’re blowing anywhere from 12 mph right up to 25 mph later on, turning the bay into a choppy, lumpy mess. The swell is tiny, mostly sitting below 3 ft, with a short, weak period of 5 to 7 seconds. The combined wave energy is weak, barely cracking triple digits (maxing out at just 137). It’s just not enough push to overcome the wind.

For a few days around the 4th and 5th of August, the swell energy climbs a little (up to 105), but the wind is still cross-on, keeping it messy. Even on the 2nd of August, when we get a clean window with a north wind, the swell is still a pathetic 3 ft with no power. This setup is just too small and too choppy to bother with.

Honestly, with this much wind and such weak, short-period slop, this looks more like a kiteboarding session than a paddle-surfing one. The quality just isn't there for us.

There’s nothing to chase here, folks. Keep your board in the car, but maybe just for a drive to the lake. Forecasts can change, but right now, this is a blank run.

-Rusty

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