Packery Channel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get real about the surf outlook for Packery Channel. I’ve looked at the numbers, and honestly, it’s a tough stretch for the next couple of weeks.

The overall pattern is a long run of small, weak, and mostly onshore or cross-onshore surf. We’re looking at poor conditions for paddling out for a solid stretch. The swell energy is mostly weak, with values mostly in the 20s, 30s, and 40s – that’s not much push behind the waves. There is a brief uptick in energy towards the end of August, but even then, the quality looks poor.

For the first week, from Saturday the 15th through Friday the 21st, it’s a write-off. We’ve got small waves, mostly around 2ft to 4ft, coming from the southeast with short, weak periods of 4 to 6 seconds. The wind is going to be your main enemy, blowing cross-on or straight onshore from the southeast. Expect choppy, messy surf with little to no power. Saturday the 15th starts it off with a 3ft swell at 6 seconds and a cross-on breeze, making for poor conditions. It’s a similar story through the week. There’s nothing here worth paddling out for.

We then move into another gap with no real improvement. From Saturday the 22nd through Tuesday the 25th, the surf stays small and weak. The swell drops, with heights between 2ft and 3ft, and the periods remain short. The wind stays mostly cross-onshore. The only slightly promising moment is Wednesday morning the 26th, where for one window we see a light offshore wind and a glassy surface with a tiny 2ft swell. It would be clean, but there’s hardly any wave to ride. It’s more of a skimboard day than a surf day.

Then, we get a bit of a pulse towards the end of the window. On Thursday the 27th of August, the swell bumps up to 4ft in the morning, and by the afternoon it’s 4ft with the swell energy climbing to 120, which is the first moderate energy we’ve seen. The period is still short at 6 seconds, and the wind is cross-onshore, so it’s going to be lumpy and sectiony. It’s the biggest surf of the forecast period, but it’s still not great. It’s going to be a messy, lower-quality day. This might be the only day that approaches anything close to rideable, but the onshore wind and short period are big drawbacks. For an exposed break like this, that onshore wind is going to chop it up.

The water temp at Packery is running about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. We’re just dealing with the typical late-summer flatness.

Honestly, if you’re desperate for a wave, the 27th is your best shot, but manage your expectations. It’s going to be a battle. Most of this stretch is a write-off for surf. Keep an eye on the forecasts, because it tends not to stay this poor forever.

Rusty.

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