Packery Channel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get real about the surf ahead.

To be straight with you, the next two weeks are looking pretty grim for decent waves. We’ve got a run of small, weak, onshore slop with hardly any push. The energy’s just not there. The first week is basically a write-off, and while there’s a slight pulse of longer-period swell around the 27th and 28th, it’s still tiny and messy. Don’t get your hopes up for anything rideable.

Tuesday, September 15th kicks things off with a weak 3ft of SE windswell at a short 5 seconds. The winds are cross-on from the southeast at 25 km/h, and it’s choppy. Water’s warm at 86°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s about the only positive. This is a beginner-level day at best, and even then, it’s pretty marginal.

Wednesday, September 16th drops off even more. We’re looking at 2ft in the morning, dropping to 1ft by the afternoon with onshore winds. The swell is short-period and weak. Forget it.

Thursday, September 17th has a slight bump back to 3ft, but it’s still short-period and cross-on. There’s a risk of thunderstorms in the morning, which might make it feel a bit wild, but the waves are still nothing.

Friday, September 18th is probably the biggest of the first week, but that’s not saying much. We get 4ft in the morning, with the period stretching to 6 seconds. Still onshore and lumpy. The combined energy is only 96, which is weak. It’s not going to be fun.

Saturday, September 19th and Sunday, September 20th keep the same theme—small, short-period, onshore chop. Nothing doing.

From Monday, September 21st through Thursday, September 24th, it just fades out. We’re talking 0.5ft to 2ft waves with periods of 5-6 seconds. The energy drops into single digits. This is flat to tiny dribble.

Now, things get a bit more interesting around Saturday, September 27th. The period bumps up to 8 seconds, and the swell stays around 3ft. The combined energy finally reaches moderate at 139 on the Sunday afternoon. But here’s the catch—it’s still mostly onshore, coming from the ESE. There’s a better morning on Monday, September 28th, with the period still at 8 seconds, light winds from the ESE, and energy at 105. That’s actually the most promising window here, even if it’s not big. The water’s still warm, and there’s more push behind it, but it’s still a beach break, so that longer period might make it close out a bit.

Tuesday, September 29th and Wednesday, September 30th keep the 8-second period but the size stays small at 3ft. The winds are more cross-shore, which might clean it up a little, but it’s still weak.

So, to sum it up honestly—there’s nothing that gets the heart racing here. The standout is probably the morning of Monday, September 28th at Packery Channel. It’s got the most energy, light winds, and the longest period of the run. But even then, it’s only about 3-3ft. The swell direction is ESE, which is not the optimum SE that this break really wants.

If you’re a beginner, the small days are safe, but the conditions are messy. For the crew looking for something proper, I’d say keep the board in the car and wait for the next system. This stretch looks like it’s going to be a lot of staring at the horizon.

Crowds are always a factor at Packery Channel, but with surf this poor, you won’t have to fight for a wave.

Rusty out.

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