Middleton Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here.

Right, let’s be straight with you. The next 16 days are looking at one main event, and it’s a big one. We’ve got a solid stretch of south-west groundswell that’s going to be pumping, but we’ve got to get through a period of size and wind before we find the real gems. The water is sitting at 64°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, so you can leave the thickest wetsuit at home.

We start on Tuesday the 11th with Middleton Beach (South Coast) already getting hit with a serious 18ft SW swell at 16 seconds. Combined energy is a massive 14155, so there’s a lot of power in the water. But it’s rough – the 22 mph cross-off wind is making it a mess. It’s a classic case of too much, too soon. This is big, unruly, and only for the most experienced crew, if anyone. This is not a beginner's wave by any stretch – anything over 8ft is expert territory, and this is way past that.

It backs down slightly into Wednesday the 12th, but we’re still looking at 15ft and 13ft SSW swells with moderate cross-off winds. It’s still too raw. The energy is still in the thousands, but the quality is just not there.

Then we get a window. Thursday the 13th, the wind swings to a light WNW offshore at 6 mph. The swell has eased to 13ft, still with a long 16-second period. The energy is still high at 9075, but the clean conditions make a world of difference. This is the first day that looks proper. It’s still big and powerful for sure, but with that offshore wind, it’s going to be holding up nicely. This is the standout for the first week – the cleanest and most powerful surf of the run. That long period will mean big lulls between sets, so you’ll have time to get out the back.

Friday the 14th and Saturday the 15th are a step down in size, with the wind turning a bit funky. Friday is cross-shore and Saturday sees the swell dropping to around 8ft with a cross-off breeze, but it’s not clean. Sunday the 16th is a write-off with onshore winds and poor conditions.

Now, here’s where things get interesting. We see another pulse of long-period SW groundswell building into Monday the 17th of August. We’re back to 8ft but with an 18-second period. The morning has a solid offshore W wind at 12 mph, and the energy is back up at 4018. The long period means it’s going to be lined up and powerful – this will be the other standout of the period. It’s a groundswell, so it should have that push to it. The Tuesday and Wednesday after that keep solid waves at the 8ft to 11ft mark with more offshore winds, so there’s a good run of surf there.

The following week, from around the 20th to the 23rd, we have some decent mornings with offshore winds and waves in the 8ft to 11ft range. It’s still good, but the real magic might be gone. Then on Saturday the 22nd, that 11ft swell with a 17-second period and a light offshore wind in the morning looks like another cracker.

So, looking at the whole picture, the two true standouts are Thursday the 13th and Monday the 17th. Both have big, powerful, long-period SW groundswell and, most importantly, offshore winds. For breaks further out, the Monday one with the 18-second period is going to be very special – that’s proper groundswell. Remember, long-period swells like this can break a bit straight at a beach break, but they excel at points, reefs, and river mouths. And remember, with this much swell, this is not a place for beginners. You need to know what you’re doing.

There are a couple of windows in the second week that look promising, like the morning of the 20th, but the forecast is less certain that far out. Still, there’s plenty of swell in the water, so it should be worth a look.

This is Rusty, signing off. Get on it while it’s clean.

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