Seignosse - Les Casernes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m gonna level with you – this 16-day outlook for Seignosse - Les Casernes is a tough one. The good news is it’s not a total write-off, but you’re gonna have to be patient and pick your moments. The water’s sitting at 76°F right now, which is a whopping 6°F warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s seriously unusual, feels like a bath out there.

The first few days are a real struggle. We’re looking at small, weak swell with poor conditions. On Tuesday 21 July, the morning has a tiny 3ft swell from the NNW with a short 6-second period, and the combined energy is a measly 84 – just weak. The wind is light cross-shore, but it’s not doing us any favours. The afternoon turns choppy with a cross-on wind. Wednesday and Thursday are much the same: tiny waves, poor surf, nothing to get excited about. Friday morning (24 July) is glassy, but the swell is only 2ft and the energy is 35 – it’s barely breaking.

The weekend of 25-26 July sees a jump in size, but it’s a mess. Saturday morning has 7ft of swell from the west, but it’s onshore wind at 22 mph, creating chaotic, blown-out conditions. The energy is up to 371 (moderate), but with that wind, it’s unsurfable. Sunday is similar, dropping to 5ft but still onshore. These days are more for the kite surfers than paddlers.

Now, here’s your one real window of opportunity. Monday 27 July is a step in the right direction – the swell is 3ft in the morning, building to 5ft in the afternoon, both from the NW with a period of 9-10 seconds. That’s a longer period groundswell, meaning better shaped waves. The energy is 266-347 (moderate). The wind is light cross-on, so it’s not perfect, but it’s a lot cleaner than the weekend. Tuesday 28 July morning is the standout. The wind turns offshore from the ENE at just 3 mph, and the swell is a clean 4ft from the NW at 9 seconds. The energy is 203 (moderate). This is your best bet – expect good surf conditions, clean faces, and long lines. The crowds are *sometimes* an issue here, so get in early.

After that, things fade again. Wednesday 29 July morning is glassy but tiny – 3ft from the NW – and the energy drops to 102. It’s surfable but very ordinary. The rest of the week and into early August is a mix of small, weak swell and onshore winds. There’s a brief moment on Wednesday 5 August morning when the wind goes glassy and the swell is 3ft, but the period is a short 5 seconds, so it’s not going to hold much power.

So, to sum it up: the first week is mostly a dud. Tuesday 28 July morning is your clear winner – clean, offshore, and a decent 4ft groundswell. After that, it’s a long gap of small, poor conditions until the very end of the outlook period, where there’s a faint whisper of a glassy morning on 5 August. Keep an eye on the forecast, because it can change, but for now, be ready to pounce on that Tuesday morning.

Rusty.

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