Lances Right Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s talk about Lances Right.

We’ve got a bit of a rough start here, with a few days of grotty conditions to get through, but the second half of the outlook has some real promise brewing, especially towards early September.

Starting off, the first few days are pretty much write-offs. Saturday the 29th has onshore winds and only 5 ft swell at best, but the wind is just trashing it – it’s a pass for me. Sunday the 30th offers up a 4 ft swell, but it’s messy and onshore, plus the period is a massive 20 seconds. Long-period like that usually points to a proper groundswell, which is raw power, but with these winds? It’s not going to be the clean, lined-up stuff we want. The combined energy is up there though, hitting 1581 on Sunday afternoon (moderate energy). But it’s just not clicking with the wind.

We’re looking at a big run of marginal or poor conditions right through until the end of the first week of September. Swell sticks around between 4 ft and 8 ft, mostly from the SW and SSW, but that onshore or cross-onshore wind from the SE and SSE just kills it. By Monday the 1st and Tuesday the 2nd of September, you’ve got 8 ft of swell with moderate energy in the 3000 range, but it’s all bumpy and messy. Too big for beginners at that size anyway, and unless you’re an expert looking for a challenge in rough water, it’s not worth paddling out.

The real light at the end of the tunnel shows up on Tuesday the 8th of September. After a stretch of near-nothing, we finally see a change. Tuesday afternoon brings in a glassy, dead-calm wind – a SW wind at 3 mph with zero chop. The swell drops to a clean 3 ft from the S, but that period is a ridiculous 19 seconds. That is a very long period groundswell, meaning proper energy, smooth faces, and long lulls between sets. For an advanced reef like Lances Right, that’s the ticket. Combined energy is 748 (moderate), and the report says “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s my pick of the early run.

Then hold on. Thursday the 10th of September morning is another standout. Glassy as glass, zero wind, with a 5 ft SSW swell and a 17-second period. 1230 combined energy. That’s clean, lined up, and perfect for the advanced crew. Again, very good conditions noted.

But the true star of this entire 16-day window is Saturday the 12th of September. This is the one to circle on your calendar. We’ve got a 7 ft SSW swell with an 18-second period – that’s a serious, powerful groundswell. The wind is glassy, absolutely dead calm, from the ENE. Combined energy is 2758 on Saturday morning, climbing to 2825 in the afternoon (very strong wave energy). The report calls it “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers,” and they’re not wrong. 7 ft at this spot with no wind? That’s a heavy, hollow wave that only the best should be paddling into. It might break a little straight at a beach, but this is a reef break – Lances Right likes that long period. Crowds are listed as “sometimes,” so expect a crew, but it won’t be a circus. If you’re advanced, that Saturday is the absolute best on offer. Sunday the 13th still looks solid at 7 ft from the SW with a 16-second period and light offshore, but the energy is even higher at 3859 – that’s very strong. Still, Saturday takes the crown.

Water temp? I’d say it’s feeling about average for the time of year, nothing to write home about.

So, to lay it out straight: the first week is mostly a washout. Tuesday the 8th afternoon and Thursday the 10th morning are little windows of glassy goodness. But the true winner, the one that gets the blood pumping, is Saturday the 12th of September.

Stay safe, check the tides, and don’t be a hero in that 7 ft glass if you’re not ready.

Rusty.

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