Lances Right Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what’s on the cards for Lances Right. I’ve been staring at the charts and, to be honest, it’s a bit of a frustrating run ahead. We’ve got swell in the water, but the quality just isn’t there for most of the period, with a whole lot of "marginal" calls. Let’s get into it.

Right off the bat, the first real recommendation lands on Tuesday, July 14. We’re looking at a long-period SSW groundswell, around 18 seconds, pushing in at 5 ft. The water temp is a warm 86° – that’s about average for the time of year. The real bummer is the wind. It’s a solid 9 mph from the SSE, which is onshore and messy. The combined wave energy is a solid 1784 (moderate), so there’s power, but those onshore breezes are going to chop it up. It’s not a complete write-off, but it’s a tough go for anything clean.

The pattern continues through Wednesday and Thursday, July 15 and 16. The swell drops off slightly to 4 ft to 5 ft, with periods staying long between 15 and 17 seconds. The wind stays light, but it’s onshore or cross-onshore, keeping that surface bumpy. The combined energy dips into the 700-1200 range. It’s the kind of surf where you’re just fighting for a couple of makeable ones.

Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th are more of the same – consistent, but lacking any real quality. Swell holds around 4 ft with long periods, but we’ve got cross-shore breezes and the odd risk of a thunderstorm. Crowds are worth a mention as they’re listed as ‘sometimes,’ so expect company.

Now, there are two little windows that stand out. The first is on Monday, July 20. We get a bump in swell to 6 ft from the SSW with a 16-17 second period, and the wind looks to be clean, offshore from the SE at 9 mph. The energy rockets up to 1984 (moderate). That’s a solid groundswell day and it’ll be powerful. For an advanced crew that knows how to handle a reef, that’s the call. Tuesday the 21st sees similar size, but the wind picks up to 12 mph from the SE, making it a bit more of a wrestle.

The second, and honestly the best looking window, is a full week away on Sunday, July 26. The swell is modest at 4 ft to 3 ft from the SW, with a 14-second period. But the wind is the story. We’re talking glassy conditions all day – absolute perfection. The energy is low (573-451), so it won’t be a power session, but it will be clean. For a high-performance reef wave, that’s the prize. The crowds? ‘Sometimes’ again, so expect a few regulars out enjoying the calm.

After that, the forecast turns real quiet into the last week of July, with swell dropping under 3 ft and the wind staying onshore. It goes pretty flat.

So, the standout is clear as day. For power, it’s Monday, July 20 with that 6 ft SSW groundswell and offshore wind. For pure, clean fun, lock in Sunday, July 26 – the glass-off is too good to miss on a 4 ft SW swell. Everything else in between is just grinding out waves in less-than-ideal conditions.

Stay stoked, but be patient.
Rusty.

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