Kamakura Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, listen up.

The next week and a half here at Kamakura is a total write-off. From Wednesday the 16th all the way through to Friday the 25th, it’s mostly tiny, weak surf that’s not worth paddling out for. We’re talking ankle-biters under 2ft. The wind is often offshore, which is nice, but there’s just no swell to push it. The wave energy is super weak, mostly in the double digits, with only a slight bump to 68 on the Friday afternoon.

Your first real chance of something rideable comes on the weekend of the 19th and 20th. Saturday the 19th sees a jump to 4-5ft from the SE, and the energy climbs into the 700-800 range. That’s more like it, but the wind is screaming at 25-30 mph, so it’s going to be a battle just to get out the back. The period is a decent 13 seconds, so there’s some push, but it’ll be more about surviving than getting a clean ride. Sunday the 20th is similar size but the wind gets even stronger, making it a real mess and borderline unsurfable.

Then, get ready for a proper pulse on Monday the 21st of September. We’ve got the biggest swell of the early window with 8ft of SSE swell, and the energy jumps to a whopping 1821. That’s real power. But with a strong offshore wind, it’s going to be a heavy, challenging day. That size is definitely for experts only, and the afternoon backs right off to 3ft as the wind swings onshore. The window is tight.

After that, the ocean just goes flat and sleepy again. From Tuesday the 22nd through the 26th, we’re back to tiny waves and weak energy. There’s a slight bump on Saturday the 26th afternoon to 2-3ft from the SSE with light offshore winds, but it’s still pretty marginal.

Now, for the true standout of the entire 16-day outlook. Circle Monday the 28th of September. The morning looks clean with 4-5ft of SSW groundswell and light offshore winds, with the energy already at 902. But the afternoon is the one. The swell builds to a solid 6ft from the SSW with a long-period groundswell, and the wind drops to nearly nothing. The energy rockets up to 1469. This is going to be clean, powerful, and lined up. It’s a solid size, so you’ll want your big-wave board and some experience, but this is the best on offer. The SSW direction is spot-on for this spot.

The following Tuesday and Wednesday (the 29th and 30th) keep the size up, but the wind swings onshore, chopping everything up. Tuesday is a complete mess with 7ft+ of slop. Wednesday morning still has some size at 8ft, but the wind isn't helping. The Wednesday afternoon is much better, with the wind turning light offshore and the swell dropping to a clean 3ft, but the energy has faded.

The window ends on Thursday, October 1st, with a return to small, weak surf. The water is a balmy 81°F on the 16th, which is about 2°F warmer than normal for this time of year.

So, there you have it. A long, flat wait, but two distinct windows. The first is a brief, wind-blown pulse on the 19th and 20th that’s only for the keen. The real standout is Monday the 28th of September, offering the best mix of size, clean conditions, and proper groundswell. Everything else is just staring at the ocean and hoping.

Catch you in the water.

Rusty

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