Kamakura Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. I’ve got the forecast for Kamakura in the palm of my hand, and I’ve gotta be straight with you: we’re looking at a long, slow start. For a spot that’s usually exposed, there ain't much happening in the water right now.

The first week is really just a waiting game. The water temp is sitting around 74°, which is pretty average for this time of year, so that’s not the issue. The problem is a lack of any real push from the ocean. Those first few days through to the 9th of July are offering up barely a ripple – you're looking at stuff under 2ft with weak, short-period wind slop. The combined swell energy is tiny, often single-digit or low double digits. You’d be paddling around waiting for something that's just not gonna come. There’s a window on Monday the 10th of July where the energy jumps up a bit, but it’s still very small and jumbled.

Now, hold onto your board, because the real story is that Friday the 10th of July. Thursday the 9th sees the swell building, but it’s a bit messy with cross-shore wind. But Friday morning? This is the standout. We’ve got a solid 8ft S swell rolling in, a period of 17 seconds showing its deep ocean power, and the combined energy is over three thousand – that’s *proper juice*. Best of all, the wind is a light, glassy cross-offshore from the east. This is the kind of setup at Kamakura that'll have that S swell wrapping in with genuine power and shape. The break is exposed to this direction and the optimum is from the south, so it’s a direct hit.

This is for experienced surfers only – at over 8ft, the afternoon session tips into that territory, but the morning at 8ft is still serious. The period is long, so expect those set waves to have plenty of push and a bit of a lull between them, making the paddle out a little easier. For the rest of the 10th, the wind clocks onshore and the quality drops. Keep an eye on the morning window.

The week after that, it all fades away again. We drop back down to knee-high scraps with weak energy, and the wind turns onshore and strong. There are a few glimmers around the 16th and 19th of July with lighter winds, but the swell is simply too small to get excited about. The 19th of July starts glassy, but again, it’s just a few feet of short-period stuff. This Kamakura run is a flash in the pan – one killer morning, and then back to the waiting room.

Rusty.

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