Kamakura Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at the waves ahead for Kamakura. Let's be straight with each other – the next week and a half is pretty grim for paddling. We’ve got a long dry spell to get through.

The forecast is a tough one for the next week. We've got a whole run of days, from now through to the 24th of August, where the surf is going to be tiny or junky. The swell energy is barely registering, with combined energy readings stuck below 100, often just a whisper at 53 on the 16th, and even dropping as low as 12 on the 19th. You'll be looking at ankle-biters at best. Winds are a mixed bag, but mostly onshore or cross, so don't expect any magic. For a beginner spot that's already inconsistent, this stretch is basically a write-off. There's a couple of mornings with glassy conditions on the 20th, but the swell is only 0.7ft – just not enough to do anything with.

We finally get a pulse of life around the 25th. The energy jumps up to 419 on the Tuesday morning, with a 3ft SSE swell. Problem is, the wind is a moderate cross-onshore, making it a bit choppy and lumpy. Still, it’s better than nothing. The real standout, and the only time I'd actually get excited, is the morning of Wednesday the 26th. We've got a clean, glassy surface thanks to a slight air from the SSW, a solid 3ft of groundswell from the SSE with a very long period of 16 seconds. The wave energy is a strong 728. This is where it gets good. That long period swell will wrap in nicely for a point break like this, offering up some proper shape and long walls. The water temp is a warm 81°, which is bang on average for this time of year. However, it's still a beginner spot, so be aware that if it starts pushing towards 5ft as the day goes on, it'll be a bit much for those still learning.

From the 27th onwards, the swell keeps building, but the wind turns against us again. By the 28th, we’re seeing 7ft+ swells with a very strong combined energy, but the wind is a messy moderate cross-onshore, making it choppy and difficult. This is big, powerful stuff for a beach break setup – honestly, it looks more interesting for the kite crew than for paddle surfing. By the 31st, the model is showing a massive 21ft swell with perfect offshore cross-off winds, but that’s just way too big for this spot. Even for experts, that’s a beast. The forecast for that far out is also less certain, so we’ll have to wait and see.

So, to sum it up: the wait is a long one. The glassy morning on the 26th is your best bet by a mile. Get on it early.

Rusty

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