Kamakura Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for any decent surf around Kamakura. I’ve scanned the whole sixteen-day window, and honestly, we’ve got a long stretch of flat, onshore, or just plain messy conditions. It’s a real bummer.

First up, from Friday July 24th right through to Monday August 3rd, it’s a dead zone. We’re talking tiny, weak swells barely scraping 1 foot, mostly coming from the southeast, with periods all over the shop. The wind is a constant problem – onshore, cross-onshore, or just enough to chop up whatever little bump there is. The combined wave energy is laughable, sitting below 100 (just 25 on the 24th morning) – basically a lake. The water temperature is sitting at 81°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s small comfort when there’s no waves.

You’ll see a little flicker of life on Monday July 27th morning. There’s a tiny 0.7 foot bump from the SSE with a clean cross-offshore wind from the NNE. The energy is still weak (50), but you might catch a knee-high ripple if you’re desperate. It’s not worth paddling out for, but it’s the only thing that’s even surfable in that entire first week. The consistency is a problem too – “inconsistent” is the name of the game here.

We get a glimmer of hope on Tuesday August 4th. The morning shows a 3 foot swell from the southeast, with a nice long period of 16 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy. The combined energy jumps to 393 (moderate), the wind is a clean cross-off from the ENE, and the forecast says “expect good surf conditions.” This is the best on offer in the whole run. Kamakura is an exposed beach break, so that long period groundswell might make it a bit straight, but with clean offshore wind, it’ll have some shape. This is your one window.

The next few days, the swell builds, but it brings trouble. By Wednesday August 5th and Thursday August 6th, the swell is pushing 3 to 4 feet, and the energy is climbing into the 500s and 600s (strong), but the wind swings onshore or cross-shore, making it messy. The period is still long (16-17 seconds), so there’s power, but it won’t be clean.

Then it gets ugly. Friday August 7th brings a solid 6 foot SE swell (energy 2042 – very strong) with a 25 mph cross-offshore wind, but the risk of thunderstorms and that strong wind will make it a battle. By Saturday August 8th, we’re looking at a massive 13 to 15 foot swell from the SSE with a period of 17-18 seconds, but the wind is screaming onshore at 25-28 mph. The combined energy is off the charts: 9229 and 12023. That’s not a surf forecast; that’s a kite-surfing or a “stay home” forecast. The break is exposed, so it’ll be a washing machine. Only absolute experts should even think about it, and even then, it’s not going to be fun.

To sum it up: the only standout is Tuesday August 4th morning. That’s your shot. The rest of the period is either flat, windy, or dangerously big. It’s a rough run for Kamakura.

Rusty.

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