Kamakura Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s break down the prospects for Kamakura over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, it’s a slow start. The first few days have a bit of swell but not much to get excited about. The real story builds from mid-week, with a solid pulse of southerly groundswell that’ll get the blood pumping, especially for the crew who like it big and are experienced enough to handle it.

The first real chance to get wet comes Sunday morning, August 2nd. We’re looking at tiny 1ft waves from the ESE, with a long 16 second period. That long period makes the paddling out easier between sets, but the size is small. The water is 82°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. The wind is a gentle cross-offshore breeze from the NE, keeping things clean. The combined energy is weak (107). It’s surfable, but very ordinary. Sunday afternoon is a write-off with onshore wind.

Monday, August 3rd, the swell bumps up a bit to 2ft in the morning, period still 16 seconds, but the cross-off wind is a fresh 19 mph, making it a bit of a battle. The energy is moderate (278). Still, it’s clean. The afternoon sees 3ft, but same story.

Tuesday, August 4th, the swell pushes to 5ft in the morning from the SE, 16 seconds, with a 19 mph cross-off wind. The energy jumps to moderate (1059). It’s clean, but the forecast says it’s a marginal call. Afternoon gets to 5ft and 17 seconds, even more energy (1435), but still a question mark.

Now, Wednesday, August 5th – this is the big one. The morning brings a solid 8ft of swell from the SSE, with a 16-second period. The wind is a fresh offshore from the NNE at 19 mph, so the waves will be clean and punchy. The combined energy is strong (3499). This is a serious swell, and at 8ft, it’s only for experienced surfers. The afternoon sees it peak at 10ft with the same direction, still a 16 mph cross-off wind, and energy is very strong (3908). The report says it’s actually too big for this break. So if you’re a seasoned local, this is your window, but don’t take it lightly.

Thursday, August 6th, we’ve still got 8ft in the morning from the S, 15 seconds, with a moderate cross-off wind. Energy is still very strong (3134). The morning is clean, but the afternoon gets a cross-onshore wind and choppy. Friday, August 7th, morning is your best bet with 8ft from the S, 16 seconds, a light cross-off breeze, and excellent conditions for the experienced. Energy is strong (2756). The southerly direction is a bit off the optimum for Kamakura, but the quality is there for those who know the spot.

The weekend, August 8th and 9th, sees the swell drop back to 6ft and then 5ft, but the wind stays mostly cross-off, keeping it clean. The energy drops off too (1472 to 813). Not a standout, but still rideable.

From Monday, August 10th, the swell fades away to 3ft and below, with periods dropping to 13 seconds then 10 seconds. The energy gets weak. There are a few moments with clean conditions, like Wednesday afternoon, August 12th, with a 3ft SSW swell, 12 seconds, light cross-off wind, and energy at 230. The report says “expect good surf conditions” for that one. But mostly, it’s a slow fade into small, weak waves for the second week. The last few days, from the 14th onward, are tiny, with heights under 3ft and weak energy. It’s a long stretch of small surf.

The best on offer is definitely Wednesday, August 5th, for the experienced crew. The combination of a strong 8-10ft SSE groundswell, long 16-second period, and clean offshore winds makes it the standout. Friday morning, August 7th, is also a top pick for those who want excellent conditions on a slightly smaller 8ft S swell. The crowds at Kamakura can be an issue, so get in early.

So, in short: the first week has a solid window of big, clean swell for the experts, then we fade into a long, quiet run of small waves. The forecasts can change, so keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

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