Kamakura Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, let’s get into it. Rusty here. I gotta be straight with you—this is a tough one for Kamakura (Japan). The next 16 days are looking pretty grim for any kind of decent paddle session. We’re looking at a long stretch of almost nothing, with a little flicker of something promising way out in the distance.

The first week and a half is basically a write-off. From Sunday, July 19th right through to the morning of Monday, July 27th, we’ve got nothing but tiny, weak, and poorly shaped waves. The combined swell energy is barely registering at all, often just a measly 9 to 32 units, which is about as weak as it gets. We’re talking ankle-biters, maybe a few knee-high lumps at best, with wind directions that are mostly onshore. There are a few glassy mornings in there—like Monday the 20th, Tuesday the 22nd, and Saturday the 26th—but the swell is so small you'd be better off just floating on your belly than trying to paddle. It’s a real bummer.

Now, the first real sign of life shows up on Monday morning, July 27th. The energy jumps to 170 units, which is still low, but it’s a start. The swell is coming from the south at 2 ft and a period of 14 seconds. That’s a long period groundswell, which gives the waves some shape and makes paddling out a bit easier. The wind is glassy from the east, and the morning session is described as "surfable waves but very ordinary conditions." It’s not going to be epic, but it’s the first thing worth a look. The water temp is about 79°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year.

The standout, and the only real reason to get excited, is the morning of Tuesday, July 28th. The wind is light and cross-offshore from the east-northeast, keeping the surface clean. Swell is building to 4 ft from the south, with a solid 14-second period. The combined energy hits 517 units—that’s moderate, but it’s the best we’ve seen all forecast. The guidance says "expect very good surf conditions," but it’s only for the morning. The afternoon gets ruined by onshore wind. This is your window. The south swell is a touch off the optimum direction, but the size, period, and clean conditions make it the pick of the bunch.

After that, it gets messy again. Wednesday the 29th morning has some size (4 ft, 14-second period from the south-southwest, 702 units of energy), but the wind is cross-onshore, making it choppy and marginal. The rest of the week is a washout with strong onshore winds.

Looking into the second week, the morning of Monday, August 3rd shows a bit of promise. We’ve got a decent 4 ft swell from the southeast with a very long 18-second period, and the energy is up to 838 units. But the wind is cross-onshore from the southeast, which is a real problem. Still, it’s a long-range signal to keep an eye on. The water will still be warm, but don't book your flights just yet.

If you're a beginner, that 4 ft on the 28th might be a bit much—it's on the edge of your comfort zone. Anything over 8 ft is expert territory, but we don't get close to that here. The long period swells (like the 14 and 18 seconds) are best at a reef or point break, but Kamakura is a beach break, so they might break a bit too straight.

Overall, it’s a rough run. Hang tight, and keep an eye on that Tuesday the 28th and maybe the 3rd of August. The forecast can change, and it tends not to stay this poor for long.

Stay salty, catch you on the sand.
Rusty.

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