Kamakura Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s be honest – this outlook for Kamakura is a real bummer. We’re looking at a long, quiet stretch. For the first nine days, from Sunday, July 19th, all the way through Monday, July 27th, there’s just nothing to get excited about. The waves are tiny, the energy is flat, and the conditions are plain poor. It’s a proper dead spell, so don’t bother checking the cams until we hit the last week of July.

We finally get a pulse on Tuesday, July 28th. The morning shows a south swell around 4ft at 14 seconds from the south. The combined energy hits 494 (moderate), but the wind is light cross-onshore, making it a bit tricky. Still, it’s the first real sign of life. The swell builds through the day, hitting 5ft by Tuesday afternoon, but a strong 19 mph onshore wind from the south trashes it. That’s a no-go for a paddle board.

Wednesday, July 29th, is the standout, but it’s for experts only. We’ve got a solid 6ft south swell with a very long 15-second period, and the energy is pumping at 1547 (strong). This is proper groundswell, but the wind is howling onshore from the south at 19 mph, so the surface is going to be choppy and messy. This is way more of a kite-surfing day than a clean paddle-surfing day. The south swell direction is a good match for Kamakura, but the wind is the killer.

Thursday, July 30th, has the biggest swell of the window, with a 7ft south swell, 15-second period, and energy roaring at 2097 (very strong). That’s a heavy, powerful ocean. The morning sees a risk of thunderstorms and a cross-shore wind, which might offer the best shot for a session if you’re a seasoned charger. This is big, powerful, and definitely not for beginners. The afternoon drops a bit to 6ft, but the wind stays onshore.

After that peak, Friday, July 31st, and into the weekend, the swell drops off fast. Friday morning has 3ft from the southeast with light onshore winds, and it’s just marginal. By Saturday, August 1st, it’s back to tiny 1.0ft with glassy conditions, but there’s almost no energy. The water temp is sitting at a warm 79°, which is about average for this time of year.

Bottom line: if you’re an expert, keep an eye on the morning of July 30th for a chance at some big, raw south swell. For everyone else, this is a period to sit out. The forecast can always change, so don’t write it off completely, but right now, it’s a quiet run.

Rusty.

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