Guibia Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your board and let’s take a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple weeks. It’s a bit of a slow grind, to be honest. We’re looking at Guibia and the forecast is pretty flat and blown out for the foreseeable future. I wouldn’t be rushing to the water for a good while.

Right off the bat, the surf is poor. On Tuesday the 1st, we’ve got a weak 4ft of wind swell coming from the southeast, but the wind is up and it’s cross-onshore, making for a choppy mess. The water’s sitting at 85°F which is pretty much normal for this time of year. Not much to get excited about.

We’re in for a pretty grim week. From the 2nd right through to the 8th, the swell is tiny – we’re talking 2ft to just under 4ft. It’s all short-period, around 6-7 seconds, coming from the southeast. The energy in the water is weak to moderate at best (89, 75, 47... it’s just not there). The winds aren't helping either, they're mostly cross or cross-on from the east or southeast. It’s a whole lot of nothing with some chop thrown in. A total write-off.

We get a little pulse of energy starting on the 9th. The swell picks up to 5ft with more push behind it (324 combined energy), but it’s still cross-onshore and the period is still only 7 seconds. It’s still not clean.

The 10th and 11th see a bit more size, with 5ft and 5ft on offer. The period extends slightly to 8 seconds, but the wind stays a problem, particularly as it builds on the 10th afternoon and the 11th, bringing in a moderate cross-onshore breeze and a choppy ocean. The energy is now moderate (314-330), but it’s not translating into good surf.

Now, the 12th of September is the one that piques my interest. The swell builds to 6ft, with the combined energy jumping right up to 753 – you can feel the power in that number. The direction is from the ESE, and it’s still cross-onshore, but it’s forecast to be just a gentle breeze. The wave comment even says “marginal surf forecast” which is the first time it hasn't said “poor”. This is the only day in the entire period where it might actually line up and produce a wave worth paddling for. It’s still a beginner’s nightmare at this size. 6ft is a proper wave. It’s not huge, but it’s not small either.

After that, we’re back to the flatness. From the 13th onward, it just drops away again. The 13th sees it drop back to 4ft, then it fades quickly to 3ft and below by the 14th and 15th. The energy falls off a cliff (198 down to 44... it’s just gone). The winds remain onshore or cross-onshore, so the surface stays messy.

So here’s the long and short of it. There’s one standout day, and it’s Saturday the 12th of September. That’s the one to keep an eye on. It won’t be perfect with that cross-onshore touch, but it’s the biggest, most powerful swell in the window, and if the wind gods smile on us, it could just be proper fun. The rest of the run is a real blank period, a long one, and there just isn't anything worth getting excited about. With a forecast like this, you need to be patient. This sort of blank run can happen, but it hardly ever stays this way for long. Forecasts change, a new groundswell will pop up, and we'll be back in business.

Stay patient, keep an eye on the 12th, and I’ll see you out there.

Rusty.

Read more