Guibia Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you about this spot – it’s a tough stretch of weather coming up.

First off, the water temperature is sitting at a warm 84°, which is about 1° above the norm for this time of year – nothing crazy, just a bit toastier than average.

Now, for the bad news. This 16-day window is a write-off for any decent surf. From now, right through the next two weeks, there’s nothing on offer that’s worth paddling out for. The first two weeks are a total blank. The only glimmer of something, and I mean a faint glimmer, comes around Tuesday, August 11th in the morning. Even then, the forecast is calling it marginal at best, with a score that barely registers.

The core problem is the wind. It’s nearly always onshore or cross-onshore, from the SE or ESE, blowing at 6 to 12 mph. That’s going to put a nasty chop on everything. The swell is tiny and weak, with periods of just 5 to 8 seconds – that’s pure wind-slop, not groundswell. Even when the combined energy bumps up to 534 (moderate to strong energy) on the afternoon of Friday, July 31st, the wind is straight onshore, so it’s just a messy, blown-out mess.

The one break we have to look at is Guibia (reef). It’s inconsistent, which is no surprise given the forecasts. It’s exposed to the SE, and the optimum swell direction is from the SE, but the swell is just too small and the wind is always a problem. The swell height never gets above 6 ft, which is fine for intermediates, but when the wind is trash, it doesn’t matter. This is a reef break, so it needs clean conditions to shine, and we’re just not getting them.

The best wave energy we see is on the 31st of July afternoon (534) and the 11th of August morning (529), but both are ruined by onshore or cross-onshore wind. The 11th of August morning is the only session that even gets a score of 1 out of 10, described as “marginal.” That’s your best bet, and it’s a poor one. The period is a short 8 seconds, so it’s not a long-period groundswell that would offer better shape.

Honestly, with this constant onshore flow and weak, short-period swell, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The consistent wind and chop are just not what you want on a surfboard.

It’s a long, dry spell. Don’t hold your breath. Forecasts can change, but right now, there’s nothing to get excited about.

Rusty.

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