Flatrock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve got the goods on what’s coming our way.

We’re kicking off with a serious pulse of south-west groundswell that’s gonna have the advanced crew frothing. Flatrock is the only break on the radar, and it’s a reef setup that demands experience. The water’s sitting at 59°F, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year – nothing unusual there.

The real standout is Thursday afternoon the 13th through to Friday morning the 14th. That Thursday arvo sees a solid 12ft swell out of the south-west, with a period of 15 seconds, pushing some serious energy into the coast – we’re talking a combined energy reading of 5696 (that’s strong to very strong wave energy). Winds are light onshore at 9 mph from the west, so it’s a bit messy. But then Friday morning – that’s the time to be in the water. You’ve got the same 12ft swell, period bumping to 16 seconds, combined energy hitting 5892, and the wind goes glassy. Dead flat, 3 mph from the west, offshore. That is exceptional surf, but you need to be an expert – this is heavy reef territory and very long-period swell, so expect bigger sets, longer lulls, and waves that will stand up fast. For point breaks or reefs like this, that long period is a dream, but be warned, it’s only for the skilled crew. Crowds can sometimes be an issue here, so get in early.

Friday afternoon drops off a touch with a cross-onshore wind, but Saturday the 15th brings another highlight. Saturday morning has a 10ft south-west swell at 16 seconds (combined energy 4128) with a clean 9 mph offshore easterly. That’s excellent, clean surf for experienced surfers. Saturday afternoon stays good with 8ft and offshore breezes.

Sunday the 16th and Monday the 17th keep the clean, offshore winds going, with swells dropping from 7ft down to 7ft. Still great quality for those who can handle it. Monday morning has a clear sky, 6 mph offshore from the ENE, and a 7ft swell at 16 seconds – clean and fun.

After that, we hit a big lull. From Tuesday the 18th through Wednesday the 19th, the swell drops below 6ft, winds turn messy, and conditions go poor – those days are best skipped. That’s a couple of days with nothing worthwhile.

Then we get a bit of a pulse again from Thursday the 20th, but it’s compromised by cross-onshore winds for a few days. The swell builds back to 10ft by Friday the 21st, but it’s choppy and onshore – not for surfing. That stretch is pretty average until we get to Saturday the 22nd. Saturday morning has a 13ft south-west swell at 13 seconds (combined energy 5580) with a cross-shore wind – it’s marginal and only for experts, but Saturday afternoon cleans up a bit with lighter winds and a 13ft swell at 14 seconds (6183 combined energy). If you’re an expert and can handle big, raw power, it might be worth a look, but it’s not the cleanest.

From Sunday the 23rd onward, we see more 10ft to 12ft swells, but onshore and cross-onshore winds dominate, making conditions poor for the most part. The end of the month (around the 25th to 27th) sees very strong winds – 22 to 28 mph – and big swells. With Flatrock being a reef and the winds howling onshore, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The only other potential standout in the second week is Friday the 28th – a 10ft south-west swell at 18 seconds (combined energy 6617) with lighter cross-onshore winds. It’s promising but less certain this far out. Overall, your best bet is locked in for Friday morning the 14th – glassy, big, and powerful at Flatrock.

Stay safe out there.
Rusty.

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