Flatrock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I'm looking at what's on the cards for Flatrock over the next couple of weeks. We've got a solid run of swell coming our way, but the wind is gonna be the main player here. It's a reef break, so the shape is usually on point, but we need the weather to cooperate.

Right off the bat, water temp's sitting at about 60°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

We kick things off on Wednesday the 16th of September. There's already a chunky 10-foot swell rolling in from the SSW with a very long 15-second period—that's a lot of energy moving through. But here's the kicker: the wind is a cross-off 16 mph from the SE. It’s keeping the face clean, but that's a big boy wave. Over 8 feet, this is expert-only territory at a spot like this. It’s a big, powerful groundswell, and while the reef will handle it, you need to know what you're doing.

Then we get into a bit of a lull for the waves themselves, but the wind is messy. Thursday the 17th still has solid 7-foot swell in the morning, but the quality is questionable. Friday the 18th and Saturday the 19th see the swell drop off fast, and the wind gets ugly. We're talking fresh cross-shore and onshore winds, creating lumpy, choppy conditions for a few days. It's not worth paddling out for.

Heads up for Sunday the 20th—don't be fooled by the 7-foot swell. The wind is a full-on onshore 19 mph from the WSW, and the conditions are described as poor. That’s a pass.

Now, here's where it gets interesting again. Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 22nd look much cleaner. The swell is back up to a solid 10 feet from the SW, still with plenty of period. The wind shifts to a cross-off 16 mph from the SE and NE, keeping the wave faces clean. This is the first real standout window. The energy is massive, but again, at 10 feet, this is strictly for the experienced crew.

The next real standout is on Saturday the 26th of September. This is the one to circle on the calendar. We've got a 10-foot swell from the SW with a massive 19-second period—that's a very long period groundswell. The combined energy is off the charts, and the wind is off from the ESE. The forecast calls for exceptional conditions for experts. This is the best on offer. The period is so long that at a beach break it might be too straight, but at a reef like Flatrock, it’s going to produce some serious, powerful lines. Get ready.

Sunday the 27th is another good look. The swell drops slightly to 8 feet from the SW (16-second period), but the wind goes glassy—3 mph from the SSE. Glassy conditions are a massive bonus; the lineup will be clean as a whistle. Excellent conditions for experienced surfers.

After that, the swell tails off through the end of September. Monday the 28th has a clean 6-foot swell with a cross-off wind, which is a nice, more manageable size. The rest of the week sees building wind and chop again, making it less appealing.

Into October, Thursday the 1st looks blown out. The 10-foot swell is there, but a 22-25 mph onshore wind from the W will trash it. This setup is more interesting for kite surfing than a clean paddle session.

Overall, the first standout is the clean, powerful swell on Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 22nd of September. But the true champion is Saturday the 26th—that long-period, offshore groundswell with exceptional energy is the one to plan for. Just remember, it's for experts only.

Rusty.

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