Flatrock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. We’ve got a pretty patchy run of surf ahead at Flatrock, but there are a couple of absolute gems hidden in the mix if you’re patient. The next couple of days are marginal at best – solid swell but winds are all over the shop, making things messy. The real standouts are shaping up to be Wednesday 16th and then later on Saturday 26th September, when the stars align. Water temp is sitting at 15°, which is pretty much spot on average for this time of year.

Flatrock (reef, advanced) – This spot is fairly consistent and exposed to SW swell, which is bang on the optimum direction.

Friday 11th kicks off with a clean 8 ft SSW groundswell at a very long 15 seconds – the combined energy is strong at 2513. Morning has a cross-off breeze ENE 15 km/h, but the surf is still rated as marginal. Afternoon sees the swell bump to 8 ft (16 seconds, 3062 energy) with light cross conditions from the S at just 5 km/h – a bit of texture on the face.

Saturday 12th drops slightly to 6-6 ft SW swell (15-16 seconds), energy around 2171-1806. Morning brings clean lines with a NNE cross-off at 20 km/h, afternoon goes glassy-light with N 10 km/h cross conditions. Still, it’s all tagged as marginal.

Sunday 13th is a write-off. Strong onshores WSW 40 km/h, 7 ft swell, 4342 energy – that’s ugly, heavy, and blown out. Forget it.

Monday 14th and Tuesday 15th are messy too. Onshores and cross-off winds in the 20-30 km/h range keep things choppy or clean but still marginal. Tuesday’s got a chunky 12 ft SW swell (4681 energy) but it’s rough.

Wednesday 16th – Now we’re talking. Morning sees 10 ft SW groundswell at 15 seconds (3477 energy) with a clean offshore E wind at 20 km/h. That’s crystal clear conditions for experienced surfers. Afternoon keeps it going: 8 ft at 14 seconds, still offshore E 20 km/h, energy 3393. This is the pick of the first week – proper, powerful reef waves with a clean face.

Thursday 17th morning drops to 7 ft SSW (1667 energy) with a NNE cross-off 25 km/h – clean but smaller. Afternoon turns glassy – WSW 5 km/h, 6 ft at 14 seconds, energy 1193. That’s a smooth, silky session.

Friday 18th through Saturday 19th sees the swell fade to 4 ft and then 3 ft, with cross-onshore winds making for poor conditions. Not worth paddling out.

Sunday 20th brings a new pulse: 8 ft SW at 15 seconds (2403-2442 energy), but cross to cross-on winds from N and NNW at 15 km/h – marginal at best.

Monday 21st to Tuesday 22nd – A building trend. Monday has 6-7 ft SW/WSW swell (1382-3719 energy) with clean cross-off winds from S 20-25 km/h. Tuesday 22nd is a standout: 12 ft SW at 16 seconds, energy 5655 – that’s very strong energy. Cross-off winds from SE 20-25 km/h keep it clean. This is a serious, powerful swell – expert-only territory.

Wednesday 23rd holds 10 ft SW at 15 seconds (3477 energy) but winds go cross from S 15 km/h, then cross-on SSW 20 km/h in the arvo – a bit of chop creeps in.

Thursday 24th is onshore WSW 10-20 km/h – poor.

Friday 25th delivers 10 ft SSW at a very long 17 seconds (5555 energy) – that’s a monster groundswell with huge energy. Morning is cross-on, but afternoon turns cross-off SSE 25 km/h and clean. Still, that long period might make it a bit fast and straight for a reef break – but for the crew who know the takeoff zone, it’ll be pumping.

Saturday 26th September – The final highlight. 8 ft SSW at 16 seconds, clean offshore winds E 25 km/h in the morning and ESE 20 km/h in the afternoon. Energy is 3504-3647. That’s classic, excellent conditions for experienced surfers – glassy offshores, solid groundswell, and a reef that will hold the line. This is the other true standout of the whole outlook.

Remember, Flatrock is an advanced reef break – these swells over 8 ft are strictly for the experienced. Crowds are sometimes a factor, so you might have to share the peak. The main takeaway: Wednesday 16th and Saturday 26th September are your golden tickets. The gaps in between are filled with marginal or blown-out days, so pick your window carefully.

– Rusty

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