Flatrock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk about one spot that’s got pulses running: Flatrock. It's a reef break, so you’re looking at proper waves with a defined take-off zone. Right now, water temp sits around 60°F with a 1°F anomaly – that’s pretty average for this time of year, so just your usual wetsuit season.

We’re starting off with a bit of a wait. The first real recommendation doesn’t kick in until Wednesday the 16th of September. Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th are a write-off for quality: Monday is cross-onshore and sloppy with a combined swell energy of 1553 (moderate energy, but messy). Tuesday has a big 10ft SW swell with a very long 15-second period (groundswell), but the cross-off wind and marginal tide conditions mean it’s not a goer – the energy is there (3715) but the setup is wrong.

Wednesday morning, September 16th is your first standout. The swell is still pumping at 10ft from the SSW, with a 15-second period, and the key here is offshore wind from the ESE at 16 mph. That’s clean, with combined energy of 4201 (strong wave energy). This is big enough that it is only for experienced surfers – over 8ft pushes it into expert territory. The reef should handle the long-period energy okay, but strong offshore flow will groom it well.

Thursday the 17th drops a bit – still a solid 7ft SSW swell at 14 seconds, with cross-off winds in the morning from the NE at 12 mph. It’s clean, but the energy is moderate (1906). Afternoon turns onshore from the west at just 3 mph, which is glassy but directly onshore – that’s going to mess with the shape.

Friday the 18th is a bit of a mixed bag. Morning has a 5ft SSW swell with a very long 17-second period – that’s proper groundswell energy (1814) – but the cross-shore wind from the north at 19 mph creates lumpy, cross-chop conditions. Not worth it for paddle surfing. Afternoon is cross-onshore and dropping energy.

There’s a gap in quality from Saturday the 19th through Sunday the 20th. Swell sizes drop to 3ft to 3ft, and winds are cross to onshore. Energy is weak (as low as 426). A solid lull.

Monday the 21st of September brings a nice swing. Morning shows a 8ft SW swell at 13 seconds, with a light cross-off breeze from the NNE at 6 mph. That’s clean, moderate combined energy at 2391, and the light offshore angle means it will be glassy. This is a good window – not giant, but clean and very surfable.

Tuesday the 22nd is another standout for experienced surfers. Morning has a 8ft SSW swell at 15 seconds, with offshore wind from the east at 12 mph (moderate offshore). Energy is high at 2655, and the reef should handle the long-period groundswell well, giving it shape.

Wednesday 23rd and Thursday 24th are uninspiring – onshore and cross-onshore winds, dropping swell, poor conditions.

Now, Friday the 25th of September deserves a mention. Morning shows a 12ft SW swell at 16 seconds – that’s huge, deep groundswell with a combined energy of 6021. The wind is cross-shore from the north at 12 mph, which is not ideal, but the size is there. This is strictly for experts, and the cross-shore wind will keep it lumpy.

Saturday the 26th is a no-go: 12ft SW swell but with a screaming south wind at 31 mph (near gale) creating a mess.

Sunday 27th stays big (8ft SSW, 16 seconds) but cross-shore winds at 22 mph make it lumpy and not worth the paddle.

Monday 28th and Tuesday 29th show signs of easing back. Tuesday the 29th morning has a 7ft SW swell at 16 seconds with cross-off wind from the SSE at 12 mph – clean conditions but the rating is marginal. The energy is moderate (2320), and it could be okay for a session if you’re keen.

Best of the period: Wednesday morning, September 16th is the clear winner – big 10ft SSW, long period, offshore wind, strong energy (4201). Just remember that’s expert only. Monday morning, September 21st is the best call for a more manageable size with clean conditions.

Stay stoked, pick your moments, and don’t bother with the windy days.

- Rusty

Read more