Flatrock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk about what’s coming for Flatrock. This is a reef setup, open to the SW, and it’s an advanced wave. The next week and a half is going to be a real rollercoaster, so you’ve got to pick your moments.

The good news starts this Sunday morning, August 16th. We’ve got a solid 7.2ft SW groundswell pushing in with a 14-second period, and the wind is a clean 12 mph from the east, offshore. The combined wave energy is 1947 (moderate), so there’s some real punch in the water. This is excellent for experienced surfers, but these are solid waves for a reef – not for the faint of heart. That swell hangs around through Sunday afternoon and into Monday, with the period stretching to 16 seconds on Monday morning, bumping the energy to 2041. Monday afternoon cleans up nicely, with a 5.9ft swell, 16-second period, and energy at 2243. That’s the standout window for the start of the week: clean, consistent, and powerful. Crowds can be around sometimes, but the quality will be worth it.

Then Tuesday the 18th, the wind shifts. The swell is still there, 5.6ft with a long 17-second period, but the breeze swings to a NNE cross-off, making it a bit trickier. By Tuesday afternoon, it’s a cross-shore mess with a 4.9ft swell. The energy drops to 1216, and the score takes a hit. Wednesday the 19th is a washout – strong onshore winds from the west, rain showers, and lumpy conditions. The swell is only 4.3ft, and the energy is weak. Don’t bother.

Thursday the 20th might offer a window. The swell bumps back up to 6.2ft with a 16-second period, but the wind is cross-onshore from the WNW at 9 mph. The energy is high at 2716, but it’s choppy. Not the best, but if you’re keen, you could get a few.

Now, Friday the 21st is where it gets big and ugly. A 9.8ft SW swell with a 17-second period sends the energy to 5491, but the wind is a strong cross-onshore at 15 mph. By afternoon, it’s 11.5ft with a 16-second period and a massive 10448 energy reading, but the wind is onshore and lumpy. This is a beast of a wave, but it’s going to be a washing machine. For paddle surfing, it’s a no-go. With that kind of power and wind, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than traditional surfing.

Saturday the 22nd is a bit of a reprieve. The swell is still 9.8ft to 11.5ft, with energy up to 7776, but the wind drops to a light 6 mph from the south, creating a cross-shore with only small ripples. The score improves to a 6, which is the best of the bunch for this size. It’s still huge, expert-only territory, but the conditions are manageable. This could be the standout for the bigger wave chargers.

The rest of the second week gets messy again. Sunday the 23rd has an 8.2ft swell but cross-onshore winds and choppy conditions. Monday the 24th brings strong southerly winds at 25 mph, making it a complete mess. The energy is 3219, but it’s not worth it.

The light at the end of the tunnel is Tuesday the 25th of August. The swell drops to a more manageable 5.6ft, period 13 seconds, and the wind goes light and cross-offshore from the SE. By Tuesday afternoon, it’s glassy. The energy is 951 (weak), but the conditions are clean and the wave quality is expected to be very good. That’s another solid session for the experienced crew.

Wednesday the 26th sees the swell drop further to 4.6ft, with a long 16-second period, but it’s clean. Then Thursday the 27th has a weird 3.0ft swell with a 19-second period, which is a very long period groundswell. That’s going to be straight and fickle at a reef, but the energy is 1462. Not the best.

The final weekend, the 28th and 29th, is another big, windy mess. Friday the 28th has a 13.1ft SW swell with a 14-second period and a massive 6001 energy, but the wind is messy. Saturday the 29th is cross-onshore and choppy.

The real standout for the whole outlook? I’d say the Monday afternoon the 17th with that 5.9ft, 16-second swell and clean conditions, and the Tuesday afternoon the 25th with the glassy conditions on a 5.2ft swell. For the big stuff, the Saturday the 22nd is the one to circle on the calendar, but it’s an expert-only slab.

The water temp is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

That’s the lay of the land at Flatrock.

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