Flatrock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll level with you – the next 16 days at Flatrock are a mixed bag of raw power and brutal conditions. It’s a reef break that takes a SW swell and it’s exposed, so when it’s on, it’s on, but the wind and size are going to be the main talking points. There’s a massive gap of poor surf at the start, so you’ll be waiting a while for anything worth paddling out for.

For the first few days, forget it. Tuesday the 1st through to Thursday the 3rd, we’ve got a strong SW groundswell pumping in – 6 ft to 13 ft – but the wind is howling onshore or cross-shore, making a total mess. The combined energy is massive (10796 on Thursday morning) but it’s all for nothing with that chop. You’d be mad to go out.

Friday the 4th and Saturday the 5th? Still ugly. Friday has a 12 ft SW groundswell (16-second period) but a fresh cross-shore wind and rain. Saturday the 5th is a standout for size – a 20 ft SW swell – but it’s way too big for this break, even for experts, and it’s onshore. The energy reading hits 20168, but that’s a warning, not an invitation. Sunday the 6th has a clean morning with a 10 ft SW groundswell and a cross-off breeze, but the score is low – the energy (4135) is still strong, and the crowd factor is there, so it’s not a total write-off.

Monday the 7th and Tuesday the 8th see more big swell (13 ft to 18 ft) but persistent cross-on wind. Tuesday the 8th afternoon has a 13 ft SW groundswell with a 19-second period, and the energy is 11574 – that’s a proper groundswell, but the wind is gentle cross-on, so it’s choppy. Not the day.

Now, here’s the true standout: Wednesday the 9th morning. Clear skies, glassy conditions, and a 12 ft SW groundswell at 17 seconds. The energy is 7159, which is substantial, and the wind is dead calm. This is an exceptional session for expert surfers – that long-period SW groundswell will wrap into the reef beautifully. Expect clean, lined-up sets. The crowd is possible, but with conditions this good, it’ll be worth it.

Thursday the 10th and Friday the 11th are marginal – 8 ft to 10 ft SW groundswells with clean conditions but cross-off or cross-shore wind. The energy is dropping (3881 on Thursday morning), so it’s not the same quality.

From Saturday the 12th onwards, the swell drops below 8 ft, and the wind becomes a problem again – onshore and strong, especially Sunday the 13th with near gale conditions. The energy falls to 1045 by Tuesday the 15th, and the surf is poor. There’s a long gap of poor to marginal conditions from the 12th through to the end of the period on the 16th. The last few days are barely worth a look.

So, if you’re a seasoned local, circle Wednesday the 9th morning – that’s the one. The rest is either too big, too windy, or too small.

Rusty.

Read more