Flatrock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright crew, Rusty here. Let’s have a good look at what’s coming our way.

We’ve got some solid, powerful groundswells lining up for Flatrock over the next couple of weeks, but it’s not all smooth sailing. This is a heavy reef setup for advanced surfers only, and the wind and size are going to be massive factors. There’s a real standout window in the first week, but you gotta pick your moments because things get wild after that.

It kicks off on Friday afternoon, July 3rd, but honestly, the conditions are marginal. We’ve got a 12ft SW swell rolling in – that’s a lot of water – but the wind is a cross-on mess. The combined swell energy is pumping at 9540 (moderate to strong), but the surface will be choppy and lumpy. Not the one to jump on.

Saturday the 4th is where we start seeing some cleaner options. The swell drops to a still-chunky 8ft from the SW early, then 7ft from the SSW later. The wind swings cross-offshore with an ESE to SE flow. The water is about average for this time of year at 60°F. This is excellent for experienced crew, but it’s big at over 8ft, so this is experts-only territory. The energy is solid at 2448 on Saturday morning.

Now, here’s the standout. Sunday morning, July 5th. This is the pick of the forecast. We’ve got a clean 12ft SW groundswell with an extra-long period of 17 seconds, and the wind is blowing offshore from the East at 15 mph. The combined energy is a thumping 6602 (moderate to strong). This is a serious groundswell with very long periods – it will be powerful and walled up, so it’s best left for the experts on this reef. The energy and the clean face will be incredible. The offshore wind is a major positive, keeping it glassy and lined up. This is a true standout, but only for the experienced. Sunday afternoon holds a clean 10ft SSW swell with offshore winds too, still excellent.

Monday the 6th through to Thursday the 9th keeps offering clean, powerful surf in the 5ft to 10ft range, mostly with favorable cross-offshore or offshore winds. Wednesday morning the 8th sees another big pulse of 10ft SW swell at 17 seconds with cross-offshore winds – that’s another expert-only day with exceptional conditions, but the energy is way up at 5221 (moderate to strong).

Friday afternoon the 10th the wind turns cross-onshore from the NNW, and the quality drops right off. From there, it’s a messy run. The 11th and 12th are a write-off with choppy, cross-onshore winds and huge, dangerous swell. Sunday the 12th is forecast to have a massive 16ft SW swell at 16 seconds with 28 mph cross-onshore winds – the energy is a massive 21925 (very strong wave energy). The break can’t handle that size; it’s too big for even experts here.

The second week is a mixed bag. From Monday the 13th through Wednesday the 15th, we’re stuck with strong onshore winds and messy, big surf – mostly poor conditions. Thursday the 16th is a bit cleaner with cross-offshore winds on a 5ft to 6ft SW swell, but the energy is moderate (1401 to 1881) and the conditions are marginal.

Looking further out, Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th show a glimmer of hope. Friday has excellent, clean 7ft SW surf with very light winds and a long 16-second period. The energy is moderate at 1958. That’s a promising finish to the run, but it’s two weeks away, so don’t lock it in yet. Saturday the 18th goes a bit messy with light cross-shore winds.

So, the clear standout is Sunday, July 5th. That offshore wind on a serious, long-period SW groundswell is the best we’ve got on offer. Everything else in the first week is decent to excellent for experienced surfers, but the second week is full of gaps where the wind or size ruins it. Keep your wetsuit handy and your eyes on that Sunday.

Rusty.

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