Flatrock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for Flatrock (reef break). We got a solid run of surf ahead, but you gotta pick your moments. The start is a bit of a write-off, but once that wind turns friendly, it gets real special, real fast.

The first few days are a no-go. Friday the 3rd is a mess – a massive 20ft SW groundswell with a 15-second period is packing some serious power (combined energy of 22113), but a 25 km/h cross-on wind is chopping it all up and it’s just too big and blown out for this spot. It settles a bit that afternoon, but it’s still ugly and only an 12ft swell with questionable tide. Give it a miss.

Saturday the 4th is where it starts to turn. The swell has dropped to a still-chunky 8ft from the SW, period still long at 14 seconds, but here’s the kicker – the wind swings ESE, becoming a clean cross-off. That morning session is looking clean with moderate wave energy (2448). The afternoon holds similar, a touch smaller at 8ft. This is for the experienced crew only.

Now, Sunday the 5th is the absolute standout of the whole 16 days. Sunday morning we’ve got an exceptional, expert-only setup. An 12ft swell from the SSW, a very long 17-second period, and a solid 25 km/h offshore wind from the ENE. It’s going to be world-class. The combined energy is through the roof (7142). The afternoon stays just as good, a fraction smaller at 10ft but still that clean offshore flow. If you are a confident surfer, this is your window. It will be big, powerful, and perfect.

Monday the 6th is still a solid shout. The swell is easing to 6ft from the SSW, and Monday afternoon the wind goes glassy – zero wind from the north. The swell drops to 5ft with a 14-second period, but with clean, glassy conditions it’ll be a joy for a mid-range board. Good energy (863).

Tuesday the 7th is another glassy day. Both morning and afternoon are looking clean with light winds and a nice 5ft to 6ft SW swell with a long period of 15-16 seconds. Excellent conditions for experienced surfers, just a more manageable size.

The quality stays high through Wednesday the 8th and Thursday the 9th, with clean winds and solid 7ft to 10ft S/SW swells, but look – a big wind change is coming.

Everything goes to rubbish from Friday the 10th through Monday the 14th. Heavy onshore winds, howling gales, and massive, blown-out swell. Combined energy numbers are monstrous (over 26000 on the 13th!), but it’s all onshore and way too big for any kind of fun. Absolute mess.

We get a brief flicker of hope on Wednesday the 15th morning with a massive 18ft SSW swell and clean cross-off winds... but that is legitimately dangerous for all but the most extreme experts, and it’s likely too much for the reef. After that, the last few days of the run into the 18th are mostly blown out or bumpy with cross-shore winds and a muddy energy. Not worth paddling out for.

So to wrap it up: wait for the clean-up on Saturday the 4th, but your real gold is Sunday the 5th. Get on it.

- Rusty

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