Flatrock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey folks, Rusty here. Let's talk about the 16-day outlook for Flatrock. This is a solid reef break that's pretty exposed to the SW, and it's a spot for the advanced crew, no doubt about it. Right now, we've got a real slow start, but hold on, because the second half of the week is where it's at.

The first couple of days are a write-off. Monday the 3rd is a mess with a strong, choppy cross-onshore wind and a 10-foot SW swell that's just not clean. The combined energy is cranking (3533), but it's all for nothing with that wind. Tuesday the 4th is where we see the first real window. Morning comes in with a glassy, 7-foot SW swell from a long 15-second period, giving it some real grunt (2092 energy). The wind is a light NNE, making it glassy, and it's clean. Afternoon follows with a 6-foot SW swell, also glassy. This is your best bet for the early part of the forecast. The water temp is about average for the season at 60°.

Wednesday the 5th is a step back with stronger cross/onshore winds and a dropping swell that's messy. Thursday the 6th is a better call, with a clean 6-foot SW swell in the morning (1500 energy) and a light, cross-offshore SE wind. It's smooth, but the swell is a bit smaller. Friday the 7th gets bigger again with an 8-foot SW swell, but the wind is a messy cross-shore from the north, so it's not as clean.

Now, the weekend. Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th? Abandon hope. We're talking about a near-gale from the north on Saturday (34 mph!) and a strong SW wind on Sunday with a 13-foot SW swell (5634 energy). This is a full-on, blown-out mess. The entire week of the 10th to the 14th is a parade of strong winds and massive, dangerous swell. The energy numbers are off the charts – we're talking 15,165 on the 12th with a 20-foot SW swell. That's not for paddling; that's for the big wave tow crew or the kite surfers, as it's just too big and dangerous for a standard paddle session.

The standout window, and I mean the true standout, is the final two days. Tuesday the 18th is the absolute pick of the 16 days. The morning is barely a whisper of wind, glassy conditions, with an 8-foot SW swell from a long 16-second period (3818 energy). It's going to be clean, powerful, and lined up. Afternoon is even better, with a 10-foot SW swell, 17-second period, and glassy conditions (4579 energy). This is the sort of session you remember. It's a bit of a long-range call, so it's a promising one, but check the charts closer to the time. Monday the 17th is also a decent option with an 12-foot SW swell and light winds, but it's a bit more onshore and not as clean as the 18th.

So, my advice: be patient. The first week is a write-off for the most part. Target Tuesday the 4th for a solid session, and then keep your eyes locked on Tuesday the 18th. That's the one.

Rusty, signing off.

Read more