Flatrock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it.

We’ve got a tricky run coming up at Flatrock. The stretch ahead is a real mixed bag, with some solid pulses of swell but the wind is a constant battle. The first real surf worth talking about doesn’t show up until Saturday the 20th, with a few days of nothing but junk before that.

Overall Pattern

The week starts quiet. The first few days are a write-off; the wind is all over the place, making everything a chop-fest. The swell that does show up on Saturday the 18th is a clean 4ft SW groundswell with a solid 13-second period, but the wind is a moderate cross-off from the NNE, so it’s not completely on. It’s just enough to get the heart going, but the tide and conditions are questionable. The combined energy is weak (585), so it’s more of a paddle than a proper session.

Sunday the 19th is a complete no-go: 2ft of swell with a 19-second period sounds amazing, but it’s blown sideways by a 15 mph cross-shore. The energy is still weak (599), but the wind is the killer.

The First Real Window

Monday the 20th is where it starts to get interesting. The swell bumps up to 6ft from the SW, period at 15 seconds, and the combined energy is moderate (1311). The wind is a moderate cross-shore, so it’s a bit lumpy, but it’s the first time the numbers look half-decent. It’s marginal, but it’s a start.

Tuesday the 21st is the best of the first week. The morning shows 6ft SW swell, 13-second period, and the wind is a gentle cross-shore. The energy is moderate (1228). The afternoon gets a bit onshore, but the morning has a slight cross-chop, not a full-on mess. It’s not perfect, but it’s the cleanest we’re going to see for a while.

The Standout

Now, if you’re looking for the real magic, you’ve got to wait. Thursday the 30th of July is the absolute standout. The afternoon shows a massive 16ft SW swell, 14-second period, and the energy is off the charts at 17757, which is extremely strong. The wind is a gentle cross-shore, giving it that slight cross-chop. This is a full-on, big-wave day. The report says it’s too big for this break, so this is for experts only. The swell direction is a perfect match for Flatrock’s optimum SW direction. The water temp is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

The Long Range

The second week is a bit of a rollercoaster. Wednesday the 22nd is a mess with onshore winds. Thursday the 23rd shows a solid 8ft SSW swell with a 14-second period, and the energy is moderate-to-strong (2981), but the wind is onshore. It’s a promising swell, but the wind kills it.

The week of the 27th and 28th sees some big pulses from the SW, with the 28th showing a 10ft, 16-second period groundswell (3746 energy), but the wind is onshore and it’s a write-off.

The Final Call

Honestly, if you’re a paddler, the best bet is the morning of Tuesday the 21st for a solid, clean-ish session. The Thursday the 30th afternoon is the big one for experts, but only if you’re ready for a 16ft paddle. The rest of the window is a frustrating mix of solid swell and poor wind. It’s not a total washout, but it’s a test of patience.

Stay safe out there.

Rusty.

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