Flatrock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surfers, Rusty here. Let’s get into it for the next stretch at Flatrock. We’ve got a solid run of pulses coming through, but it’s not all going to be pretty. The early part of the week is going to be a bit of a fight, but there are a couple of windows that are going to fire for the experienced crew.

Right out of the gate, Tuesday the 15th, we’ve got some solid 9.8ft SW swell on the way, but that 30 km/h SSE cross-off wind is going to put a bit of chop on it, and the tide’s looking questionable. The energy is moderate-to-strong at 3768, and the water’s sitting at 60.1°F, which is about normal for this time of year. It’s clean-ish, but not the best we’ll see.

Wednesday morning the 16th is where it starts to get interesting. The swell stays around 9.8ft from the SSW, but the period bumps up to 15 seconds. That’s proper groundswell, and with a 25 km/h offshore ESE wind, Flatrock is going to be handling it well. The energy is strong at 4257. This is excellent for experienced surfers, but the size is pushing it, so it's getting into that territory where it’s only for the crew who know what they’re doing. The wind turns a bit cross-off in the arvo, dropping the quality a notch.

Thursday the 17th drops a little in size to around 6.9ft from the SSW, but the wind is a lighter cross-off from the NE. It’s still clean, but the tide looks off, so the surf will be more of a challenge than a pleasure. Not a standout.

The weekend takes a dip. Friday the 18th sees a fresh 30 km/h cross-shore wind from the N and a lumpy, cross-chop. The swell’s still there at 5.2ft, but the quality is poor. Saturday the 19th is worse; the swell drops to under 3.3ft and the wind is still messy. Sunday the 20th is onshore and junky, despite a bit more size showing in the afternoon. This is a stretch to sit out.

We get a little window on Monday morning the 21st. The wind swings back to a 15 km/h SSE cross-off, and we’ve got a clean 6.2ft SW swell with a 13-second period. It’s a much better, more manageable size, and the energy is moderate at 1334. A good one for the experienced surfer, and the crowd is only sometimes a factor. Not huge, but clean.

Then the big one. Tuesday the 22nd. The swell is back to 9.8ft from the SSW, with a solid 15-second period. The morning has a 25 km/h offshore E wind, but the afternoon is the real deal: a gentle 15 km/h offshore breeze, 9.8ft of clean SSW groundswell, and the energy jumps way up to 5685. This is exceptional, expert-only surf. The size is well over 8.2ft, so this is serious, but the waves are going to be lined up and perfect. This is your standout. Flatrock will be doing its thing.

Wednesday the 23rd is a bit of a letdown after that. The swell drops back to 6.6ft, but we get a magic hour in the morning with a 5 km/h glassy wind and clean 15-second SSW swell. It’s still a good size and absolutely perfect conditions, just not the raw power of the day before. The wind picks up in the afternoon.

Thursday the 24th is more of the same, with clean 5.9ft SW swell and a light cross-off breeze. It's rideable, but nothing to write home about. Friday the 25th sees the swell back down and the wind turning onshore in the afternoon, so that’s a write-off.

Then, hold onto your boards for the 26th. Saturday the 26th turns into a monster. The morning starts with an 11.5ft SW swell and a long 18-second period. But that’s just the warm-up. By the afternoon, we’re looking at a massive 13.1ft SW swell with 18-second periods and the energy meter is off the charts at 20021. The problem? The wind is a fresh 35 km/h cross-onshore from the WSW. This much swell, with that much wind, is going to be a close-out mess. It’s so big it’s beyond expert territory; it’s just dangerous and lumpy. This is more for the kite crew than the paddle crew.

The long-range stuff, into the last week of September, is a letdown after that. The swell stays big-ish, around 8.2ft to 9.8ft, but the wind is inconsistent and often cross-shore, so the quality drops off. The 28th looks clean but short-period, and the 29th and 30th see the size fade away with fresh cross-off winds that are a bit too strong for good shape. Nothing that’ll get the heart racing.

So, to sum it up: if you're an expert, your days are Tuesday the 22nd and maybe the glassy morning of the 23rd. The 26th is just too huge and wind-blown to be surfable. The rest is a battle with the wind and tide. I

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