Flatrock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for the next couple of weeks.

We’ve got a bit of a slow start, but don’t write it off just yet. The first real surf worth paddling out for isn’t until Thursday the 23rd of July, so there’s a few days of waiting. The early part of the week is a write-off – messy winds, lumpy conditions, and the kind of energy that just makes you want to stay on the beach. But hold on to your leggies, because it gets interesting.

The standout window is Thursday the 23rd of July at Flatrock (reef). This spot is an advanced reef break, exposed to the SW swell, and it’s fairly consistent. Thursday morning is looking at a solid 13ft of SW swell with a long period of 14 seconds, and the combined energy is a massive 10737 – that’s some serious power. The cross-shore wind is fresh, so it’ll be lumpy, but the wave quality is there for the experienced crew. The afternoon cleans up a touch with a 13ft SW swell at 15 seconds and even more energy at 12170. The wind is still cross, but it’s a moderate breeze. This is the pick of the entire forecast. The water temp is sitting at 60°, which is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

Now, the swell stays big, but the wind turns ugly. Friday the 24th through Sunday the 26th see the swell dropping from 10ft down to 6ft, but the onshore wind is a constant problem. It’s choppy, lumpy, and cross-onshore – not worth your time. The combined energy drops from 3440 to 1000, so the grunt is there but it’s just a mess.

There’s a potential glimmer on Tuesday the 28th of July. The afternoon shows a 8ft SW swell with a very long period of 16 seconds, and the combined energy is 4292. The wind switches to a light cross-offshore from the SSE at only 3 mph, and the report says it’s clean. That’s a rare treat, but the swell is still solid and the break is a reef, so it’s for experts only. The crowd factor is “sometimes” at Flatrock, so you might have company, but it’s not Gridlock City.

The first week of August is a no-go. The swell is huge – 16ft on the 1st of August, then 13ft, and the wind is howling onshore or cross-shore at 28 to 28 mph. The combined energy numbers are off the charts (19759 on the 1st), but it’s too big and too windy for any kind of paddle surfing. For a reef break, that’s a straight-up safety hazard for all but the most insane. This setup looks more like a kite surfing playground than a paddle spot.

So, to wrap it up: the first real wave is Thursday the 23rd of July, with a second chance on Tuesday the 28th of July. The rest is either flat, windy, or too big. Don’t get your hopes up for the long range – it’s promising but very uncertain.

Rusty.

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