Flatrock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get stuck into this one.

The big picture is that we’re in for a waiting game. The first few days are a write-off thanks to messy wind and lumpy conditions, but your patience is going to be rewarded. The real standout is sitting out there on the 28th of July – that’s the one to circle on the calendar.

We kick off on Tuesday the 21st of July. The swell is a solid 6ft from the SW, but with a moderate cross-shore breeze and a cross-chop, it’s not doing you any favours. The combined energy is moderate (1137), but the wind is just ruining any chance of a clean wave. This theme carries right through the week. Wednesday the 22nd sees a slightly bigger 6ft to 7ft, but the wind is onshore and lumpy – energy jumps up to 2190 on the morning, but it’s rough. Thursday the 23rd is a big one, with 13ft of SW groundswell, but it’s blown out and messy. That afternoon the wind turns cross-shore, and the energy is massive (10954), but the quality is still just marginal. Friday the 24th through Sunday the 26th stays in that same pattern: plenty of swell around 7ft to 10ft, but the wind is mostly cross-onshore and choppy. The water temperature is 60°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

Now, Monday the 27th of July starts to look more interesting. The swell is 10ft to 12ft from the SW, and the wind backs off. It’s still only marginal, but you can feel the shift. The energy is strong (2784 to 7910), and the wind is light, but it’s still onshore in the afternoon – so not quite there yet.

Here’s your standout: Tuesday the 28th of July. This is the morning you want to be in the water at Flatrock. The forecast is for a 13ft SSW groundswell, with a very long period of 17 seconds. That’s proper groundswell. The wind turns light and cross-off – clean as a whistle. The combined energy is massive (7835), and the conditions are described as exceptional for expert surfers. This is a serious reef break, and with that size (over 8ft), it’s strictly for the experienced crew. The swell direction is SW, which matches the break’s optimum, so it’s going to line up perfectly. That afternoon, the wind goes glassy, and the swell drops to 12ft, still with a long period of 16 seconds – still a solid session if you’re on it.

Wednesday the 29th holds some swell at 10ft, with a clean cross-off wind in the morning, but the energy is lower (3365). It’s a decent follow-up day, but not the standout. Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st of July keep the swell going, 7ft to 8ft, with clean conditions in the mornings, but the energy is fading. The 31st has a nice 7ft SSW swell with a 15-second period and a clean cross-off breeze – excellent for experienced surfers.

As we roll into August, the sizes drop off. Saturday the 1st of August has a 3ft SSW swell in the morning, clean, but the energy is weak (531). The afternoon sees a 2ft SW swell with a very long 19-second period and a clean offshore wind – that’s a weird combo, but it’ll be glassy. The 2nd of August is a wipeout with strong breeze. Monday the 3rd of August brings back a 6ft SW swell with a 17-second period, but the wind is cross-shore and lumpy. Tuesday the 4th of August has a 12ft SW swell, with a light onshore wind and strong energy (7047), but it’s marginal. The 5th of August is a washout with rain and fresh cross-shore winds.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is a bust. The surf starts to get good on the 27th, but the real magic is on the 28th of July. That’s the one. After that, it’s a slow decline into early August, with only small, clean windows for the confident crew.

Rusty out.

Read more