Flatrock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's get into what's cooking at Flatrock.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the first few days are looking pretty ordinary. It's not that there's no swell, it's just the wind and conditions are making a mess of things.

Sunday the 19th through to Wednesday the 23rd of July... it's a bit of a write-off. We've got a SW groundswell coming in, but the wind's all wrong. It's coming from the north and northwest, creating a nasty cross-shore chop. The wave energy is actually getting up there, but it's all for nothing when the surface looks like a washing machine. The water temp is sitting at a pretty average 60°F for this time of year.

Now, everything changes on Thursday the 23rd. Thursday morning we're looking at a solid 13ft SW groundswell, with a period of 14 seconds, and the wind swings around to the south at 12 mph, keeping it cross-shore. This is where it gets interesting. The model is giving decent marks here, and that's because it's a big, powerful groundswell with manageable wind. But heads up, this is purely an expert zone. At 13ft, this is not for the faint of heart.

Thursday the 23rd is the standout of the first week. The swell is from the southwest, which is the optimum direction for Flatrock. It's going to be a big, powerful day. Get on it if you have the skills.

Things get messy again from Friday the 24th through Tuesday the 29th of July. The wind is either onshore or cross-onshore from the west and southwest, not cleaning it up at all. The swell size hangs around 7ft to 13ft, but the quality is poor. Some days the wind is hitting near gale force, like 31 mph on the 28th, making it totally unsurfable. Honestly, for a beach and reef setup like this, those strong onshore days are more for the kite surfers.

Finally, there's a light at the end of the tunnel. Wednesday the 31st of July morning into Saturday the 2nd of August looks promising. The wind goes light and clean, from the southeast and east. We're looking at clean cross-offshore and offshore winds. The swell drops back to a more manageable size. Thursday the 1st of August is a real standout. We've got a 3ft SW groundswell with a long 16-second period and light offshore winds from the east. The model loves this – calling it "very good surf conditions". It's the combination of that long-period groundswell and glassy offshore wind that makes it special.

Saturday the 2nd of August is also worth a look. The morning swell jumps back up to 10ft from the WSW, still with clean winds, but that's expert territory again. The afternoon sees it drop to a clean 6ft with a very long 21-second period. That's a dream session for the experienced crew on the points.

Sunday the 3rd of August... the model is screaming caution. We have a huge 15ft WSW swell with a 16-second period in the morning. The wind is perfect, offshore, but the model is saying it's predicted to be too big for this break. It might just close out or be unrideable, even for experts. The afternoon is a bit more manageable at 10ft with the same perfect wind.

So, to boil it down for you: Thursday the 23rd of July and Thursday the 1st of August are your two best bets. The 23rd is for the big-wave chargers, the 1st is a more user-friendly, long-period clean swell. The rest of the 16-day window is a battle with the wind for the most part.

Rusty.

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