Flatrock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a solid 16-day window ahead, but it’s a slow burn. The first real surf worth talking about doesn’t kick in until Wednesday morning, the 15th of July, so don’t bother paddling out before then.

Wednesday morning, July 15th is your first real chance. Flatrock is waking up with a clean 8ft SW groundswell, with a long period of 15 seconds. The combined energy is pumping – 3093 (moderate wave energy). The water’s sitting at 60°, which is about average for this time of year. A light NE breeze is keeping it cross-off, so the face will be clean. This is excellent for experienced surfers – it’s a reef break, so it’s not for the faint of heart. The long period (15 seconds) means the waves will have plenty of power and shape, but at a beach break it might wall up. At a reef like Flatrock, it’s going to be proper. Crowds are sometimes here, so you might have a few others out, but it’s not a zoo.

Wednesday afternoon the wind shifts to a light NW cross-on, which will put a tiny bit of texture on the surface. Still surfable for the committed, but the morning is the pick.

Thursday morning, July 16th is another morning session shout. 7ft of SW swell, period at 14 seconds, and the combined energy is up to 3115. Wind is NNE at 20 km/h, cross-off, so it’s still clean. The swell is a touch smaller, but the quality holds. Afternoon turns a bit cross-on and choppy, so stick to the early.

Friday morning, July 17th – 7ft SW, 16-second period, 2292 energy. Again, cross-off wind from the NNE. It’s consistent, but the scores are starting to dip a bit. It’s still good for experienced surfers.

We hit a bit of a lull from Saturday, July 18th through to Tuesday, July 21st. The swell drops to 4ft or less, and the wind turns messy. Saturday morning is clean but small. Then Sunday through Tuesday it’s a mix of strong cross-shore winds and choppy conditions. This is a gap of about 4 days where the quality really drops off.

The real standout is hiding in the second week. Mark your calendar for Friday morning, July 24th. Flatrock is going to fire. We’re looking at an 12ft SW groundswell, with a 16-second period. The combined energy is massive – 7072 (strong wave energy). The wind is glassy – SSE at just 5 km/h. That’s about as perfect as it gets. This is exceptional surf, but it’s for experts only. 12ft is big, powerful, and on a reef. If you’re not comfortable in heavy water, stay on the beach. This is the one to aim for. The rest of that week has some solid 8ft to 10ft days, but with more wind, so that Friday morning is the gold.

The final week into July gets a bit wind-affected and inconsistent again. The swell stays around 5ft to 6ft, but the wind is often cross-on or strong, so it’s not the same quality as that 24th.

So, the call: Wednesday morning, July 15th is a solid start, but the absolute money day is Friday morning, July 24th. That’s the one with the glassy conditions and the big, long-period groundswell. Get on it.

- Rusty

Read more