Flatrock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, the wait is over. After a pretty grim start, we’ve got some serious potential lining up for us here at Flatrock. This is an advanced reef setup, exposed to the SW, and it doesn’t break all that often, so when the stars align, you want to be on it. Water temp is sitting at 60°, which is pretty average for this time of year, so nothing out of the ordinary there.

The first few days are a write-off. Wednesday the 2nd is a no-go with strong onshores and messy, dangerous conditions. Thursday and Friday are just as grim, with lumpy cross-chop and winds that are going to make it feel like a washing machine. Saturday the 5th looks genuinely dangerous with a 16ft swell and strong onshore wind – that’s for experts only, and even then, it’s a pass.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Sunday morning the 6th is our first real glimmer. We’ve got a clean 10ft SW groundswell with a 14-second period and light cross-offshore wind from the NE. That’s a good combo for this reef, with the combined swell energy sitting at a solid moderate 3740. It’s big enough to be exciting, but still manageable for experienced surfers. Crowds can show up here sometimes, so don’t expect to have it to yourself if the word gets out.

Monday the 7th drops right off in size, down to 3ft to 4ft, but with a very long 21-second period and clean offshore winds. The energy is weak at 816 to 1350, so it’s more of a longboard or funboard kind of day if the tide lines up. Not a standout, but a nice little window if you’re desperate for a paddle.

Tuesday the 8th brings a solid 10ft SW groundswell with a 17-second period, and the wind is clean cross-offshore. Energy is moderate at 4560. Another good session for those with some experience.

Wednesday the 9th is a monster day, but it’s a tough call. We’ve got a 13ft SSW swell with a 17-second period and strong offshore wind. The combined energy is very strong at 18115, and the forecast suggests it might actually be too big and powerful for this break, making it incredibly difficult to paddle into. Only for the absolute top-tier local chargers.

Thursday the 10th backs off slightly to an 12ft SSW swell, still with clean winds and a 16-second period. Energy remains moderate to strong at 6750. This is probably the better bet than Wednesday if you want to actually catch waves.

After that, it goes quiet again. Friday the 11th through Saturday the 12th is messy, onshore, and small. Sunday the 13th shows some promise with a clean 7ft SW groundswell and a 16-second period under light winds, but it’s not a standout.

Then we get to Monday the 14th. Glassy conditions with a 7ft SW swell and a 15-second period. Energy is moderate at 1875. That’s a beautiful morning session for experienced surfers with clean, lined-up waves.

But the real standout, the one you should be marking on your calendar, is Thursday the 17th. We’ve got a massive 13ft SSW swell early in the morning with an 18-second period and light cross-offshore wind. The combined swell energy is very strong at 10418. The afternoon jumps to a 21ft SSW swell, with an energy reading of 30320 – that’s a massive amount of power. The wind is gentle cross-shore. This is an exceptional day for expert surfers only. This is the kind of swell that turns Flatrock into a proper big-wave arena. It’s 16 days out, so keep an eye on the forecasts, but if this holds, it will be the session of the month.

Rusty

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