81st Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The forecast is a bit of a flat spell for our stretch, especially to start. Looking at the whole 16-day window, there’s a real lack of any proper swell for a while, and when the ocean does start to wake up, the wind is going to make a mess of things. We’re looking at a lot of waiting and watching.

The first few days, right through to the 18th, are going to be tough. We’re talking small, weak surf. The 13th has a tiny 1ft wave with a 10-second period, and while the morning has light offshore winds, the energy is minimal. The 14th and 15th see the swell stay around the 3ft mark, but the wind turns onshore or cross-shore, making it lumpy and bumpy. There’s just no push or shape to it. It’s pretty gutless.

There’s a bit of a lull on the 19th, where the swell drops right off to nearly nothing, and then we get a pulse of windswell, but it’s not the good kind. From the 20th, we see onshore winds building, and the surf stays below 4ft, with the wind making it messy. Honestly, from the 13th through the 21st, it’s all pretty poor. Not really worth getting wet unless you’re desperate.

The most interesting period—and I’m using that term loosely—is from the 22nd through the 24th. The swell finally builds to a more respectable size. On the 22nd, we’re looking at 6ft with a period of 9 seconds. The energy is moderate, around 542 to 554 in the brackets. But, and it’s a big but, the wind is onshore and strong. That kills it. On the 23rd, it’s a bit smaller at 6ft, but still with a strong cross-onshore wind making it lumpy and messy. The 24th sees similar size, 5ft, but the wind is still cross-onshore and choppy. The energy is moderate. The swell direction is from the ENE, which is okay, but with that wind, it’s just going to be a washing machine.

Then on the 25th and 26th, the ocean turns wild. The swell is still decent—5ft on the 25th and 5ft on the 26th—but the wind is howling. We’re talking strong breeze, near gale, and gale force cross-onshore winds. It’s completely blown out. The energy is strong—we’re looking at values like 467 and 389—but it’s not doing us any favors. This setup would be way more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer.

After that, it fades out fast. The 27th and 28th see the swell dropping back to 2ft or lower, and while the wind calms down a bit, the damage is done. The waves are gone.

The one place we’re looking at is *81st Street* (a local break). It’s an exposed spot, and the swell direction for it, the optimum, is from the ESE. That’s not what we’re getting for most of this. We’re getting a lot of ENE or NE swell, which is cross-shore or onshore for this break. It won’t be working well.

It’s inconsistent, and it’s not going to be breaking well at all. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

In short, there’s no standout day. You’re going to be sitting on the sand for a while. Forecasts can change, but as it stands right now, I’d save your energy for something else. It’s a poor run.

Rusty

Read more