81st Street Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. The next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a proper paddle. But that doesn't mean we sit on the couch. Let’s break it down day by day.

We start off with some tiny, weak surf. Friday the 11th has a mere 1ft of swell with a short 8-second period. The onshore NE wind will have it looking all over the place. Not worth suiting up. Saturday and Sunday are similar, with waves around 1ft. There’s a moment Sunday afternoon where it goes glassy with the ENE breeze dying off, but the surf is just too small to get excited about. You’d be fighting for dribbles. The water temp is a notable 80°F, which is 5°F warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s a big deal, so at least you won’t need a thick suit while you’re sitting there waiting for nothing.

The first week is a write-off for the most part. We see some slightly bigger surf around Monday the 15th (3ft) but it’s all short-period, onshore wind slop. The energy is weak, with combined energy values in the 80s and 90s. That’s not surf, that’s just chop. The wind is howling from the NE and it’s just messy. This carries on through the middle of the week.

Then, we get a tiny window. On the morning of Thursday the 18th, we finally see some offshore wind from the WSW at 6 mph. The swell is still tiny at 1ft with an 11-second period from the ENE, but it will be clean. It’s a small, clean day – skateboard waves. You might get a couple of fun little corners if you’re on a log. Not a standout, but the best it gets for a while.

After that, the bottom falls out again. The end of the week and the weekend see the swell drop back to 0.7ft. That’s it. Just flat.

Now, looking further out, there is a pulse of energy coming. It’s not going to save us from the wind, but the ocean will definitely have some push. Starting Sunday the 20th, we see the swell build to 4ft, but with a terrible 5-second period and onshore winds. The combined energy climbs into the low hundreds, but with that short period and wind, it’s just going to be a mess.

By Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 22nd, the swell is up to 4ft and 5ft, but the wind really turns on. We’re talking 28 to 34 mph onshore winds. This is not surfing weather, this is survival. The energy values climb into the upper hundreds, hitting 297 on Tuesday afternoon, which seems strong, but all that energy is being blown flat by the near gale-force conditions. This is more interesting for the kite surfers than for us.

The worst of it hits on Wednesday the 23rd. The swell jumps to 5ft, and the combined energy spikes to a massive 752. That’s a significant amount of energy in the water. But the wind is still screaming onshore from the ENE at 31 mph. This is going to be a full-on, blown-out, stormy mess. For beginners, this is a no-go zone. For experts, it’s just a battle. The swell direction is from the east, which is not ideal for our optimum south-east direction.

The final few days into the 26th see the swell back down to 3ft, but the wind and rain are relentless. It’s just a miserable end to the outlook.

So, the long and short of it is: there are no standouts here. Absolutely nothing that gets the heart racing. The one slight highlight is the clean, tiny window on Thursday morning the 18th. It’s a two-out-of-ten day for sure, but if you just need to get wet, that’s your window. The good news is the water is warm, and with a forecast like this, it can’t stay poor forever. But as it stands, wave-wise, it’s a long flat spell for New York City (81st Street).

Stay patient,
Rusty

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