Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, crew, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what the next couple of weeks are shaping up to be for our stretch of coast.

The picture straight up is a bit of a mixed bag. We've got some solid swell windows, but the wind is going to be the deciding factor on a lot of days, and it's not always going to play nice. There’s also a bit of a quiet patch in the middle that we’ll have to sit through. I’m looking at the whole 16-day run, and it’s not all doom and gloom, but you gotta pick your moments.

For the first few days, we’re dealing with a moderate, workable groundswell. Wednesday the 9th kicks off with a 6ft WNW swell, but it’s got a light cross-onshore breeze on it, so it’s going to be a bit lumpy. The energy is moderate (612), but the conditions are just marginal. By Thursday the 10th, the swell builds a touch to 7ft from the west with a longer 10-second period. It’s got more push, but that cross-onshore wind is still there, making it choppy. This is a period where you’re really just getting wet, not scoring.

Friday morning the 11th might be your best early bet. The swell drops to 5ft but there’s a slight air, almost glassy. It's still cross-on, but light. Worth a look if you’re keen. The weekend gets funky. Saturday the 12th brings a big pulse of 10ft from the WNW with a long 12-second period. The energy is strong (2354), and Saturday afternoon the wind actually swings onshore from the west but is only light. That’s a lot of water moving, and it’s pushing 10ft, which is getting into expert-only territory. Sunday the 13th is the standout of this first week. The wind goes light cross-offshore from the southeast, the swell settles to a clean 5ft from the northwest, and the wave comment says it all: "expect good surf conditions." It’s not the biggest, but it will be the cleanest and most fun. Get on it.

Then we hit a lull. From Monday the 14th through Wednesday the 16th, there’s just nothing good on offer. The swell drops off, and the wind gets messy, cross-shore and onshore. We’re looking at a few days of poor surf. It’s a real gap in the action, so don’t bother.

The swell picks back up on Thursday the 18th with a strong 8ft WNW groundswell at a 12-second period (energy 1453), but the wind is all over it, making it a write-off. Friday the 19th is a total loss with fresh, lumpy cross-shore winds.

The next real window opens up on Sunday the 21st. This is it. The one to circle. We’ve got a 7ft WNW groundswell running at a long 13-second period, and the wind is light and cross-offshore from the east-southeast. The model is calling it "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers." That’s the best call of the whole run. Energy is strong (1341), and it’s going to be proper. That’s your score day, folks.

After that, things get messy again with onshore winds for the 22nd and 23rd. The very end of the window on Wednesday the 24th shows a big 10ft WNW swell (energy 2454) but with rain and questionable conditions, it’s more of a promise for the days after our window closes than anything else.

So, what’s the call? Two real standouts: Sunday morning the 13th for the clean, manageable waves, and especially Monday the 21st for the size, power, and clean conditions. The water is running a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, at 62°F, which is a nice little bonus for the first session. The long-period swells we're seeing are definitely better shaped at a place like Dumps, a fairly consistent spot, so keep that in mind. It’s going to be about waiting for the windows. You gotta be patient, but there are definitely waves to be had.

Stay stoked.

Rusty

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