Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The outlook for Brandon Bay is a bit of a slow burn. We’ve got a quiet start, but there’s a couple of windows that could be worth paddling out for. The water temp is sitting at 64°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s a nice little bonus for your session.

The first real chance to get wet comes on Monday the 24th. Dumps wakes up in the morning with a clean 4 ft swell from the northwest, and the period is a solid 11 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy. The wind is light and cross-offshore from the ESE, keeping the surface smooth. The combined energy is moderate at 301, so there’s a bit of push behind it. By the afternoon, it gets even better: the wind goes glassy, the swell bumps up to 4 ft from the WNW, and the energy ticks up to 315. This is the standout of the whole forecast. The water is clean, the swell is lined up, and it’s just the right size for an intermediate. Just keep in mind the crowds can be around sometimes, but for this quality, it’s worth sharing the peak.

Tuesday the 25th is still surfable, but it’s a step down. Morning sees 3 ft from the west with a 9-second period, and the wind is light cross-off from the ESE. The energy drops to 164, so it’s weaker. Afternoon drops to 3 ft and the wind goes offshore from the east, but the energy is only 100. It’s ordinary, but you could still get a few fun ones if you’re desperate.

There’s a gap of poor conditions and strong wind through the end of August and into early September. The wind gets messy, and the swell is either too small or blown out. The next real bright spot is Sunday the 30th. That morning, we get a 6 ft swell from the northwest with a short 7-second period, so it’s a bit lumpy, but the wind is offshore from the ESE at 15 km/h. The combined energy is strong at 369. That’s a solid amount of water moving. The catch is the short period means it’ll be a bit crumbly, and at 6 ft, it’s pushing into the zone where beginners might find it challenging. For the experienced crew, it’s worth a look.

After that, the wind turns onshore and the swell stays messy, with a few more pulses of size but never the right conditions. By the 6th of September, we’ve got a big 6 ft to 7 ft northwest swell, but the wind is howling onshore at 50 km/h, so it’s a complete write-off for surfing. The energy is massive (993), but it’s just a kite-surfing show.

So, the best bet is Monday the 24th, especially the afternoon glass-off session. Sunday the 30th is the next pick, but that’s more for the bold lot. The rest of the window is mostly a washout, with long gaps of poor surf. Don’t hold your breath for the second week – it’s ugly.

Rusty

Read more