Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it. The next 16 days at Dumps (Brandon Bay) are a tough watch, I’m not gonna lie. We’ve got some swell pulsing through, but the wind is almost always working against us, which means the conditions are going to be messy for most of the run. This is one of those stretches where you’ve got to be patient and pick your moments, because the good windows are tiny.

The water is sitting at about 64°F for the first few days, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – a nice little bonus, but it won’t make up for the lack of quality.

The first real pulse of energy shows up on the morning of Friday the 24th of July. The swell bumps up to 4ft from the NW with a solid 10-second period. The combined energy is moderate (225), which is promising, but the morning wind is onshore from the WNW, so it’s going to be bumpy. That’s the best we get for a while, and it’s not great.

Then we get a big spike. On Saturday the 25th of July, the swell jumps to 8ft from the WNW, with a very long period of 11 seconds. The combined energy is very strong (1309), so there’s a lot of power in the water. But here’s the kicker – the wind is onshore from the W at 12 mph, making it a total mess. That size is too big for beginners, and with the wind, it’s really only for the hardcore, and even then, it’s going to be choppy and ugly. The afternoon on Saturday gets even bigger at 8ft, but the wind is cross-on from the NW at 16 mph, so it’s a no-go for clean surfing. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Things settle down a bit into the next week, but the wind stays stubborn. Most of the following days (July 26th through August 4th) see swell around 4ft to 7ft, but the wind is almost always cross-on or onshore from the NW or WNW. The period drops to the 7-9 second range, so the waves are going to be a bit weak and choppy. The energy is moderate to strong (anywhere from 192 to 862), but it’s all wasted on those unfavourable winds. There’s a light cross-off breeze on the morning of Tuesday the 4th of August, with 4ft swell from the WNW, but the period is only 7 seconds, so it’s small and short-period. That’s the closest we get to a clean window, but it’s about as marginal as it gets.

Honestly, there’s no standout day in this 16-day stretch. The forecast is really poor for clean surf. The energy is there on a few days, but the wind is always the problem. If you’re desperate, the Friday the 24th of July morning has the best swell direction and period, but the onshore wind is a killer. Otherwise, keep your board in the car and hope the forecasts change.

Rusty.

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