Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, I'm Rusty, and I'm looking at the Dumps window for the next couple of weeks. Straight up, I gotta be honest with you – this is a tough stretch. The forecast is a long, drawn-out run of mostly poor surf conditions, with only a few tiny windows that might be worth a look. The water temperature is sitting at 65°, which is a solid 4° warmer than usual for this time of year, so that's a nice surprise if you're paddling out.

The pattern here is grim for the first week. Starting Tuesday, the 18th of August, we've got a rising swell but it's coming with onshore wind and the energy is moderate (368) to strong (790), but the surf is just poor. It stays like that through Wednesday and Thursday, with the swell peaking up to 10 ft on Thursday morning from the NW, combined energy hitting a strong 1640, but the wind is cross-shore and lumpy. That's more of a kite-surfing setup than a clean paddle session.

Friday the 21st sees a drop in energy, with the swell down to 3 ft and the combined energy weak at 168. The wind is cross-offshore and the conditions are clean, but the swell is just too small and weak. Saturday and Sunday are glassy but tiny, with swell heights under 2 ft and energy in the 30s and 40s. You'd be floating around.

The first real standout doesn't come until Monday the 24th of August. The morning shows a 5 ft swell from the west, with a period of 9 seconds and combined energy of 454 – moderate. The wind is cross-offshore and the surf is clean. It's a marginal call, but it's the best thing we've seen in a week. Still, the afternoon is poor again.

The next highlight is Wednesday the 26th of August. Morning brings a 4 ft swell from the west, a period of 9 seconds, and combined energy of 275. The wind is offshore from the ESE, conditions are clean, and the forecast says "expect good surf conditions." That's a solid little window. The swell direction is from the west, which is close to the optimum NW direction for Dumps.

Thursday the 27th looks similar – a 5 ft swell from the WNW, 10-second period, combined energy of 418, and light cross-offshore winds. Clean again. This is probably the pick of the whole run, but it's still just a modest, clean wave.

After that, the energy drops right off again. The tail end of the forecast, around the 1st of September, shows some onshore junk with a 3 ft swell and 6-second period. By the 2nd of September, there's a weird spike in period – 19 seconds – but the swell is only 1 ft, so it's a long-period groundswell that's too small to do anything with. The combined energy is 239, but it's just a tease.

Overall, there's no massive swell on the horizon, just a few days of clean, small-to-medium surf. The best bet is Wednesday the 26th and Thursday the 27th of August, with clean, cross-off winds and a 4 ft to 5 ft west swell. It's not epic, but it's the closest to a good session you're going to get in this 16-day window.

Rusty.

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