Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. I’ve been lookin’ at the charts for Dumps (Brandon Bay), and truth is, for the bulk of the next 16 days, it’s a bit of a tough watch. The surf is there, but the wind and conditions are doing it no favours.

Right from the start, Wednesday 22nd July, we’ve got a tiny 3 ft swell from the NNW with a short, weak period of 6 seconds. The energy is a measly 52, so it’s basically flat. A cross-offshore breeze from the NE keeps the surface clean, but there’s just nothing to ride. This limp, poor-quality pattern hangs around for days. The morning of Friday 24th sees a bump to 3 ft from the NW, and the period stretches to 9 seconds, pushing the energy up to 125, which is finally some moderate power. But the wind is a light cross-onshore, so it’s small and a bit lumpy. Still, a glimmer of something.

The weekend gets a bit of size. Saturday 25th morning brings 7 ft from the WNW, but it’s onshore, rainy, and the period is only 8 seconds. The energy is strong at 480, but it’s a messy onshore wind. That’s for stronger paddlers only. Sunday 26th pumps up to 8 ft from the WNW with a 10-second period and a massive 1229 energy reading, but that fresh cross-onshore wind from the NW is going to make it a lumpy, blown-out mess. That’s expert-only, heavy stuff, and not clean. The best call all week is probably the morning of Tuesday 4th August. We get a clean 4 ft from the W, an 8-second period, and a cross-offshore breeze from the SE. The energy is moderate at 211, and the water is a touch warmer than normal at 63°. It’s not a classic, but it’s rideable and clean, which is rare here. That’s the one to circle.

The real standout, if you can wait, is the morning of Wednesday 5th August. It’s over a week away, so it’s a long-range bet, but the numbers look promising. A 7 ft swell from the WNW, a 9-second period, and a cross-offshore wind from the SE. The energy is strong at 820, and the conditions are clean. That’s a proper session for the experienced crew. The afternoon wind picks up, so get on it early. The morning of Thursday 6th August is still clean with a dropping 4 ft swell from the NW, but energy is much lower at 269.

Overall, it’s a slow, frustrating stretch of 16 days. There are long gaps of poor surf, especially the first week. The only real window of clean, decent-sized swell with a workable wind is that Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning, 4th – 5th August. Dumps is fairly consistent and fairly exposed, so it usually picks up something, but the wind is very often the enemy here. That Wednesday morning call is the one to wake up early for.

Rusty.

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