Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, I’ve looked at what’s on offer for the next couple of weeks. Honestly, Dumps (Brandon Bay) is going to be a tough one to call. There’s a big stretch of nothing much happening, and then a few flickers of hope way out in the forecast.

The first solid run of surfable conditions doesn’t show up until Sunday, August 2nd, and even then it’s just ordinary. The water is sitting at 63°F at the start, which is about a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – a nice little bonus if you’re paddling out.

So, let’s break it down:

From now through to Saturday, August 1st, it’s a write-off. We’re talking small, weak swell, with the combined energy reading just 95 (weak) and cross-onshore winds messing up the surface. Not worth paddling for.

Then on Sunday, August 2nd, we get a little lift. The morning shows a 3ft NW swell, period of 8 seconds, with a light cross-offshore wind. The combined energy hits 107 (moderate). It’s surfable, but very ordinary. The afternoon cleans up with a gentle offshore from the ESE, and the swell bends a bit from the WSW at 3ft and a longer period of 9 seconds. Energy jumps to 165 (moderate). It’s not pumping, but it’s your best bet for clean, rideable waves.

Monday, August 3rd holds a similar vibe in the morning – 2ft SW swell, 9-second period, offshore wind, clean. Energy is low at 61, but the glassy conditions in the afternoon with 1ft and a glassy wind state are about as close to perfection as you’ll get for a tiny wave. Unfortunately, it’s just too small.

After that, it’s a long, dry gap. The next time we see anything even close to surfable is not until Monday, August 10th. The morning has a 4ft NW swell, 8-second period, with a clean cross-offshore wind. Energy is 167 (moderate). It’s surfable, but nothing special. That’s a week of waiting.

The very end of the outlook, on Sunday, August 16th, the afternoon finally shows a 3ft W swell, 9-second period, with a cross-offshore wind and clean conditions. Energy is 239 (moderate). It’s the best of the bunch in the second week, but still just ordinary.

The standout, if you can call it that, is Sunday, August 2nd, afternoon. That’s the cleanest window with the best wind, a 3ft WSW swell, and solid energy. It’s not a classic, but it’s the best you’ll get.

Honestly, for a spot that’s fairly consistent and fairly exposed to the NW, the next 16 days are a real disappointment. The only small silver lining is that the wind is clean for a few of those rare rideable windows.

Rusty

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