Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what the next couple of weeks has in store for us at Dumps (Brandon Bay).

To be straight with you, the first half of this outlook is a bit of a grind. We’ve got some swell running, but the wind just won’t play ball. The water is sitting at 64°, which is a touch warmer than we'd normally expect for this time of year, so that’s a small comfort if you’re getting in.

Monday morning, the 10th of August, actually offers a clean little wave. There’s a light ESE breeze, so it’s cross-offshore, keeping the 3ft NW swell (8 seconds) nice and tidy. The combined energy is moderate at 167, and it’s surfable, but it’s very ordinary. By the afternoon, the wind swings onshore and it’s gone.

The rest of that week and into the next is a write-off. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings are clean, but the swell is tiny or weak. Thursday through to the following Monday is a mess of cross-shore winds, onshore winds, and choppy conditions. There’s a push of swell on the 17th and 18th, with a 5ft to 5ft swell, but the wind is just too strong and messy to make it worthwhile. The 18th afternoon sees a 5ft WNW swell at 11 seconds, but a 19 mph cross-shore wind is going to turn it into a lumpy, choppy mess. That’s kite-surfing conditions, not paddle surfing.

We finally get a bit of a break on the 19th of August, Wednesday morning. A 5ft WNW swell (10 seconds) is on the way, and we get a cross-offshore NNE breeze at 12 mph. The combined energy is strong at 404, and it’s clean. It’s a marginal call, but this is the first real window of decent surf. The wave quality is there, but it might be a bit tricky with the tide.

The 20th of August, Thursday morning, is also a standout. We get a clean, glassy morning with a light offshore E breeze at 3 mph. The swell is a 4ft WNW at 9 seconds, with moderate energy (208). It’s not huge, but it’s clean, and that’s a winner after the last week.

Looking further out, the 22nd of August, Saturday morning, sees a solid 7ft W swell, but it’s on the short period side at 8 seconds and the wind is light cross-onshore. That’s a big, fat, weak wave. The 23rd of August, Sunday morning, the swell jumps to 12ft from the NW at 9 seconds. That’s a lot of water moving (1807 combined energy), but it’s a 9 mph cross-onshore wind and a short period, so it’s going to be a messy, closed-out wall for experts only. Not a beginner’s day.

The best of the best, the one I’d be circling, is the 20th of August, Thursday morning. It’s a clean, glassy session with a light offshore wind, and a 4ft WNW swell. It’s not the biggest, but it’s the most surfable wave in the whole run. The 19th of August morning is a close second for the bigger swell and clean conditions.

For the rest of the run, there’s a lot of junk. The crowds at Dumps are sometimes an issue, so you’ll want to be early for those good windows.

Rusty, signing off.

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