Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the Dumps, down in Brandon Bay. The next week and a half, the surf’s going to be a bit of a mixed bag and I wouldn’t say it’s a total washout, but you’ll have to work for the good ones.

We kick things off with a pretty grim start from Saturday the 4th right through to the end of Monday the 6th. The water is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, about 61°, but that’s the only nice thing about it. Cross-onshore winds and moderate swell energy just make for choppy, poor surf. Not worth paddling out.

Tuesday the 7th morning is a flash of hope. The wind drops out, leaving a glassy surface, with a 4ft wave from the WNW, period around 9 seconds, and moderate energy. It’s surfable but ordinary – if you’re desperate, it’s the best of a bad lot for the first few days. Wednesday the 8th morning is similar: glassy again, 4ft from the WNW, clean enough to get a few, but nothing that’ll blow you away. The afternoons both days get cross-on breezes again, ruining the fun.

The short week from Friday the 10th onward starts to show some promise. Friday the 10th morning has a light cross-off breeze and 3ft from the west, with a fairly clean surface – you’ll find some little waves but nothing with much grunt. Saturday the 11th morning is where the eyes should be: clean conditions, 4ft from the WNW, a longer period of 10 seconds, and moderate energy. That’s a solid little window for an intermediate surf. The wind is cross-off, so the face should hold up well.

Sunday the 12th and Monday the 13th mornings are both clean again, with Monday the 13th offering a 4ft swell from the WNW, 10-second period, and good energy. By Monday afternoon the wind goes offshore from the ESE, dropping the wave height to 4ft but keeping it clean – this is a proper standout for the period. The combined swell energy is strong enough for some fun, well-shaped waves, and it’s not too big for intermediate crew.

After that, it gets messy again. Tuesday the 14th through Friday the 17th are mostly cross-shore or onshore, with mediocre conditions and drop in wave quality. The swell keeps coming but the wind just chops it up.

Then, on Saturday the 18th morning, here’s your real gold. Glassy conditions, 5ft from the WNW, 10-second period, and strong energy – that’s the best of the whole run. It’s a bit bigger, so you’ll want to be confident on your feet, but it’s clean and you’ll have proper grunt to play with. That’s your best session, hands down. The spot is fairly consistent and fairly exposed, with the optimum swell direction being NW – and the forecast is right in that ballpark. But keep in mind, crowds are sometimes there.

From Sunday the 19th, we fade out with small, onshore slop less than 3ft.

So, bottom line: if you can get out Saturday morning, July 18th, you won’t regret it. Monday the 13th afternoon is a solid second shout. The rest is either too choppy or just flat.

Rusty.

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