Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, talkin’ about the surf outlook for Brandon Bay. Honestly, lookin’ at the next 16 days, it’s a pretty grim stretch for the Dumps (Brandon Bay). The water’s about 64°F, which is a lot warmer than it should be for this time of year – feels like summer’s hung around a bit too long.

The whole forecast period is a tough slog. We’ve got a solid week of tiny, weak, and messy waves from Saturday the 18th right through to the end of the week. Swell is tiny, with heights barely scraping 2 ft to 4 ft, and the periods are short, between 4 and 7 seconds – that’s just windswell with no push. The energy is weak, with a combined energy of only 90 (Saturday 18th). The wind is mostly cross or cross-off, but it’s enough to keep the surface from ever being truly clean. Saturday the 18th afternoon is a write-off with a 16 mph cross-shore breeze making it choppy. Sunday the 19th morning looks a bit cleaner with a 9 mph cross-off breeze, but the waves are still tiny and ordinary. This pattern of small, poor surf lingers through the whole week.

Then, from Saturday the 25th of July, we start to see a real shift in energy, but not in quality. The swell picks up, but it’s all onshore and messy. Saturday the 25th afternoon sees 5 ft from the NW with a 12-second period, and the combined energy jumps to 664 (moderate), but the wind is straight onshore at 16 mph. It’s a total mess. That swell builds through the following week, with Monday the 28th of July morning showing 7 ft from the WNW with a 10-second period, and a strong combined energy of 892 (moderate). The wind finally drops to a light 6 mph cross-shore breeze, which is the best we’ll see for a while. The waves are still fairly big, pushing 7 ft, and the period is okay, but the wave comment calls it “marginal” with questionable tide conditions. It’s not a stand-out, but it’s the only window where the wind is light and the swell is present. The following days keep the same size, but the wind turns back onshore, ruining any chance of clean surf.

The real standout, if you can call it that, is the morning of Tuesday the 28th of July. The swell is 7 ft from the WNW, the period is 10 seconds, and the wind is light from the NNW at 6 mph – that’s cross-shore and glassy. The combined energy is 892 (moderate). The break is a beach-and-reef setup, and with a 7 ft swell, it’s going to be pushing into the intermediate-to-expert zone. The only problem is the wave comment says it’s marginal due to tide, so you’ll need to pick your session. The crowds can be “sometimes” a factor, so you might have company.

The rest of the period is a write-off. The swell holds through the end of the month, with heights up to 10 ft on Friday the 31st of July, but the wind is always cross-onshore or onshore, and the combined energy is very strong (1633 and 1508), but the quality is poor. For a beach-and-reef setup like Dumps, that much swell with onshore wind is just a washing machine – better suited for a kite session than a paddle.

So, the best on offer is that Tuesday the 28th of July morning. The rest of the 16 days is a gap of poor or marginal conditions. It’s a pretty blank run for the area, which is a shame, but it is what it is.

Rusty.

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