Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, let’s have a look at what’s on offer for Dumps (Brandon Bay). Straight up, the water is sitting at 65°, which is a full 5° warmer than what you’d usually expect for this time of year. That’s pretty notable – feels like a little summer bonus.

To be honest, the first week and a half is a bit of a write-off. We’re looking at tiny, weak swell with poor conditions. The energy is pathetic, barely a whisper in the water (30 to 80 units of combined energy). You’ll see a few days around the 18th and 19th of July where the swell bumps up to just 3ft, but it’s messy and short-period, so don’t get your hopes up. The wind is never quite right, and the wave comment is pretty much always “poor surf conditions.” It’s a long, quiet gap until things start to change.

The standout window, and I mean the only one worth circling on the calendar, is the Wednesday 29th of July. The morning session sees a solid 8ft swell from the WNW, with a period of 9 seconds. The combined energy jumps right up to 856, which is a proper punch. The wind is a light cross-onshore, so it’ll be a bit bumpy, but there’s real power there. That said, this is big for Dumps – over 8ft, so this is strictly for the experienced lads. The afternoon gets even bigger, pushing 10ft from the NW, with energy hitting 1283. It’s a beast of a swell, but the cross-onshore wind will have it a bit lumpy and choppy. It’s not perfect, but it’s the only time in the whole 16 days when the ocean actually wakes up. The 28th of July also has some size (6ft and 416 energy), but the wind is worse, so the 29th is your best bet if you’ve got the skills.

Before that, the 25th of July sees a glimmer of hope with 3ft and longer period (11 seconds) from the WNW, and the energy is a moderate 164, but the wind is cross-onshore, so it’s still a bit messy. It’s surfable, but nothing to get emotional about.

For the rest of the forecast, it’s a long stretch of tiny, weak, and onshore or cross-shore junk. The odd session on the 20th of July with a 2ft, 11-second period swell is technically clean in the morning, but there’s just no push behind it (78 energy). You’d be fighting for scraps.

Bottom line: The first two weeks are a test of patience. The real action is on the 29th of July, but that’s big, raw power for the experts only. If you’re a beginner, stay well clear of that day. If you’re not an expert, you’re better off waiting for a different forecast.

Rusty.

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