Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Dumps over the next couple of weeks. I’ll be straight with you – it’s a rough patch. We’re starting on Friday the 24th of July, and there’s not much to smile about for a long while.

The first week is pretty much a write-off. From Friday the 24th right through to Tuesday the 28th, the wind is constantly onshore or cross-onshore, mostly from the west or southwest, and it’s blowing at 9 to 16 mph. That’s going to chop up whatever swell is there. The combined wave energy for most of those days is moderate at best, around 134 to 485, but the conditions are rough. On Friday the 24th morning, we’ve got a 3 ft swell from the NW with a period of 10 seconds, but the NW wind is 6 mph and cross-on, so it’s messy. The afternoon gets a bit bigger with 3 ft but the period drops to 8 seconds, and it’s still cross-on. Not good.

Saturday the 25th sees the swell jump to 6 ft in the morning and 8 ft in the afternoon, but the wind is onshore from the WSW and W, 9 to 12 mph. The energy gets up to 1049 in the afternoon, but it’s a messy, onshore situation. That 8 ft is getting too big for beginners, and the wind is just ruining it. Sunday the 26th is even bigger – 8 ft from the WNW, period 10 seconds, but cross-on wind at 12 mph. The energy is strong at 1310, but the surf is poor. That’s expert-only territory size-wise, but the wind is ugly.

We finally get a bit of a break on Wednesday the 29th of July. The morning is still cross-on with a 5 ft swell, but the afternoon turns glassy. The wind goes calm, and the swell is 4 ft from the WNW with an 8-second period. The energy is weak at 217, but it’s the only window of clean, surfable waves in the whole first week. Still, it’s pretty ordinary. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, nothing out of the ordinary.

Then it’s back to poor conditions from Thursday the 30th through the end of the month. The swell fluctuates, but the wind stays strong, mostly cross-on or onshore, and the surf is poor. Friday the 31st of July afternoon brings a 8 ft swell from the W with an 11-second period and energy of 1249, but the wind is fresh cross-on from the SW at 19 mph. It’s lumpy and not worth it.

The first weekend of August is no better. Saturday the 1st has 8 ft to 8 ft swell from the W, but wind is 19 mph cross-on. Energy is strong at 1225 to 1462, but the conditions are terrible. Sunday the 2nd peaks at 10 ft from the W, with energy up to 2399, but it’s cross-on in the morning and onshore in the afternoon. That’s huge, expert-only, and blown out.

After the 3rd of August, the swell fades fast. Monday the 3rd has 5 ft dropping to 4 ft, but the wind is onshore. By Tuesday the 4th, the swell is 3 ft to 4 ft from the NW and NNW, but the wind is cross-shore and fresh. The energy drops to 188 to 247. It’s poor. Wednesday the 5th sees the swell collapse to 1 ft and 2 ft, with weak energy below 100. That’s a real low point.

The last few days from Thursday the 6th to Saturday the 8th of August are just small, weak, and choppy. The swell is 4 ft or less, period is short, and the wind is cross-on. On Saturday the 8th, we get a 2 ft swell from the WNW with a 5-second period and onshore wind at 19 mph. Energy is just 58. That’s not surf.

Honestly, the only half-decent moment is Wednesday the 29th of July afternoon when it goes glassy. If you’re desperate, that’s your window. Otherwise, the forecast is a long, frustrating stretch with no real standouts. The setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing on many of those days, especially the strong wind ones. A blank run like this is more normal for the area, but it can’t stay poor forever – forecasts can change.

Rusty.

Read more