Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. Dumps (Brandon Bay) is really the only game in town for the next two weeks, and I’ll be straight with you – it’s a rough run. The water temperature is sitting at 65°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, so you might not need the thickest rubber.

The first surf on offer is Monday morning, August 17th, but it’s tiny and weak with a 3ft cross-on swell from the west, period a short 8 seconds, and combined energy of just 106 – that’s weak. It’s poor.

Tuesday the 18th sees a bump in size to 6ft in the morning, and 7ft in the afternoon, both from the west-northwest with a period of 8-9 seconds, combined energy getting up to 773 (moderate). Problem is the wind is onshore and strong, making it a write-off.

Wednesday the 19th really cranks up – we’re looking at 12ft swell from the west-northwest in the morning, period 11 seconds, combined energy hitting 2739 (very strong). This is big, expert-only territory if it was clean, but it’s blown out by 30 mph onshore winds and rain. The same goes for the afternoon. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Thursday the 20th still has solid 8ft swell in the morning from the northwest, with fresh cross-shore winds, leaving it lumpy and poor. The energy drops to 1071 (strong) but conditions remain poor.

Friday the 21st drops back to 3ft from the northwest, period down to 8 seconds, but the wind is a fresh cross-shore, so it’s messy and not worth it.

Saturday the 22nd and Sunday the 23rd are both tiny, with swell under 4ft and periods as low as 6 seconds – some of the weakest energy you’ll see (71, 57, 86). The wind is lighter, but there’s no real swell to work with.

Monday the 24th is more of the same: 2ft swell, 6-second period, combined energy just 51. Clean in the morning, but you’d be struggling to catch anything.

Finally, Tuesday the 25th offers a glimmer – 8ft swell from the west, period 10 seconds, combined energy 963 (moderate). The wind is a gentle cross-shore, conditions described as “marginal” – it’s the best we’ve seen, but that’s not saying much. The afternoon drops to 5ft and gets cross-onshore.

After that, the pattern continues – Wednesday the 26th through to Tuesday September 1st is a mix of marginal and poor conditions, with a few brief windows of cleaner but ordinary surf. The standout is probably the morning of Friday August 28th, with a 8ft west swell at 10 seconds, combined energy 1092 (strong), and light cross-onshore winds. It’s only rated as marginal, but it’s the biggest clean-ish swell in the window. The swell direction is west-northwest, which is the optimum direction for Dumps, so that’s a positive.

Overall, Dumps is a fairly consistent spot, but this 16-day stretch is a tough one. The best bet is that Tuesday the 25th morning or Friday the 28th morning, but don’t expect any standouts. Keep an eye on the forecasts – things can change.

Rusty

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