Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for Dumps (Brandon Bay).

It’s a quiet start, I won’t lie to you. The first real chance to get wet won’t come until Wednesday the 8th of July, and even then it’s just a flash in the pan. The overall pattern is a long, drawn-out run of small, ordinary swell before a proper pulse of size arrives over a week later.

The standout is definitely Wednesday morning, July 8th. It’s not huge, but the combination of a 4ft WNW groundswell with a 9-second period and glassy 5 km/h SW wind means the surface will be like a mirror. The water’s clocking in at 63°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year—nice. The combined energy is moderate at 303, so there’s enough push for a fun session. Dumps will be clean and offering some shape for an intermediate. Just a heads up, it can get busy here sometimes, so don’t expect a solo mission.

Let’s break it down day by day.

Wednesday 8th July – Morning is your window. Glassy, clean, and surfable. But the afternoon turns poor as the wind swings and chops things up.

Thursday 9th & Friday 10th – Thursday is a write-off with cross-onshore wind. Friday morning actually looks okay with 4ft swell and a good 11-second period, the combined energy jumps to 388, and the wind is cross-off from the NNE at 10 km/h. It’ll be clean, but the afternoon dies again with 20 km/h cross-shore wind messing it up. A quick dawny on Friday could be worth it.

Saturday 11th through Monday 14th – A proper dry spell. Swell drops right off to under 3ft, and honestly, the energy readings dip into the double digits. 2ft waves with weak 33 energy on Sunday morning says it all. There’s nothing happening for days. Even Tuesday the 14th is tagged as “very ordinary” with only 2ft.

Tuesday 15th July to Wednesday 17th – Still small. Wednesday afternoon is the only time you get clean offshore wind (15 km/h from the East), but the swell is pathetically small at 1ft. You’d need a longboard and a lot of hope.

Saturday 18th July – A little bump appears. 3ft swell, but the period is a short 5 seconds, and the energy is only 66. The afternoon jumps to 5ft with a 6-second period and 166 energy, but the wind goes cross-shore. It’s messy and not worth getting excited about.

Now, here’s the real one. Sunday 19th July. This is the standout. Forget the rest of the week before it. Sunday morning pumps out a 8ft NW swell. The combined energy is a massive 621—that’s strong. The wind is clean, cross-off from the NNE at 15 km/h, and the water will be clean. This is solid, powerful groundswell for Dumps. However, at 8ft, this is getting into expert territory. If you aren’t comfortable in that range, be careful. The afternoon builds to 10ft at 1055 energy, but the wind gets messy with a cross-shore chop. That morning window is your golden ticket.

Monday 20th July – The aftermath. Still a big 8ft swell in the morning, but the wind is cross-onshore now. Poor quality. The energy is still high at 989, but the surface will be chopped and lumpy. This is more of a kite-surfing scene than a paddle session.

Tuesday 21st July to the end of the period (23rd) – The fresh breeze from the NW at 30 km/h on Tuesday ruins it. Thursday the 23rd shows a late pulse of 6ft swell at 8 seconds with 335 energy and clean offshore wind from the south. It’s marginal, but it might offer a final little window. I wouldn’t bank on it.

So, there you go. For the first week, only Wednesday 8th and maybe Friday 10th morning are worth a look. The real deal is Sunday 19th morning. Mark it in the calendar, but keep an eye on the forecasts as we get closer—it’s a long way out.

Rusty.

Read more