Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, I'm Rusty. Alright, let's be straight with you – the outlook for the next couple of weeks around here is a bit grim, to be honest. We've got a mighty long stretch of poor conditions ahead before a couple of glimmers of hope pop up in the second week. Hang in there.

We start on Wednesday the 19th of August, and frankly, it's a write-off. A solid 8ft swell from the WNW is piling in, with strong wave energy, but a howling 19 mph onshore wind is just shredding it. This is poor, choppy stuff for the next several days. The wind hangs on from the north and northwest, keeping the surf messy and lumpy right through to the following Tuesday. The swell drops right down into the knee-to-waist-high range through Saturday the 22nd and Sunday the 23rd, with combined energy dropping to pathetic levels. It's clean on Sunday with near-glass, but there's no power in the water to surf.

Then, we finally get a little moment of hope. Monday the 24th of August brings in a decent pulse. Early morning sees a 4ft NW groundswell with a long 11-second period and moderate wave energy. The wind is glassy. That's our first standout. Dumps (Brandon Bay) is your spot for a Monday morning session. The water temp is 64°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you might get away with a lighter suit. That longer period means it'll be walling up nicely, but at a beach break it can close out a bit straight. Still, with clean glass, it's worth a look. The crowds are only 'sometimes' there, so you might get a few to yourself. Tuesday the 25th morning is also clean with another 4ft pulse from the WSW, so there's a repeat option, but the Monday morning is the pick of the first few days.

After that, the wheels fall off again. From Wednesday the 26th, the wind swings back onshore from the northwest and stays awful for the rest of the week and into the start of September. There's a fair bit of swell – up to 7ft on Tuesday the 1st of September – but with onshore winds over 16 mph, it's just a blown-out mess. That setup, with significant swell and poor quality at a beach break, might actually be more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Looking a bit further out, there's a promising but less certain event. On Monday the 31st of August, a 6ft to 6ft WNW swell rolls in with strong energy, but the onshore wind kills it. However, the morning of Wednesday the 3rd of September is the last real hope. It's a 4ft WNW swell with a light onshore breeze. Not perfect, but the wind might be light enough to find a clean corner. It's a long way off, though, and these things can change.

So, to sum it up: your only real window for a proper surf is the glassy Monday morning the 24th of August. The rest is a long, frustrating wait. Keep an eye on the forecasts, because it’s never poor forever.

Rusty

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