Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cooking for the Dumps (Brandon Bay) over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, it’s a quiet start. The first few days are a bit of a write-off, with only tiny, weak swell and poor conditions. From Sunday afternoon the 23rd, we’ve got a mere 1ft of cross-on windslop – not worth a paddle. We’ll be waiting through a few days of very ordinary, small surf until things finally start to show some life.

The standout window is shaping up to be Sunday the 6th of September. Now, that’s a long way off, so keep the salt in your veins, but it’s got the makings of something special. Sunday morning is looking like the pick of the whole run: a solid 13ft groundswell out of the WNW, with a long 11-second period. The combined energy is a massive 3653, which is strong to very strong. The wind is set to be light and offshore from the east, which means clean, lined-up waves. This is a serious swell, well over 8ft, so this is for experienced surfers only. It’ll be a big, powerful groundswell at a point break, so expect long, clean shoulders and some proper barrels for those who know what they’re doing.

Monday the 7th of September is still a great option too, with a 8ft to 7ft NW groundswell, still a long 11-second period, and clean, cross-off winds. The energy is still very strong (1729-1892). Again, this is a big, expert level swell, but the conditions look excellent.

Earlier in the run, there’s a small window on Monday the 24th of August. The morning shows a clean 4ft NW groundswell and a 4ft WNW groundswell in the afternoon, both with light offshore or cross-off winds. The combined energy is moderate (331-376). It’s small and clean, a good one for the intermediates out there, but it’s not the standout.

The rest of the fortnight is largely a bust. We get a few pulses of swell, but the wind is almost always onshore, cross-onshore, or just too strong, making for choppy, messy conditions. There’s a period of particularly strong onshore winds and heavy rain around the end of August and early September, which is just going to be a stormy mess. A few days in early September see some solid swell (5ft to 6ft), but it’s all blown out by strong cross-shore winds.

For the very first break I mention, water temp is sitting at 63°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

So, to sum it up: the first week is mostly a waiting game with a few small clean windows. The real action is locked in for the second week, specifically the 6th and 7th of September, promising clean, powerful, expert-level groundswell. Keep your eyes on the forecast, but that’s the one to circle.

Rusty.

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