Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – looking at this 16-day window for the Dumps, the ocean is going to be playing hard to get for a while. We’ve got a long stretch of nothing much on the menu, so don’t get your hopes up for a quick fix.

The first few days are flat-out poor. Friday the 31st has a bit of swell around 4ft, but a westerly wind is blowing right on it, making a mess of things. The energy is weak, (149), and it’s just not coming together. That carries right through the first week of August. We’ll see some surfable moments on Sunday the 2nd and Monday the 3rd, but they’re small, in the 2ft to 3ft range with short-period swell. It’s the kind of stuff that gets you out of the house but won’t get your heart racing. The highlight of that stretch is probably Sunday afternoon. The wind goes offshore from the east at 9 mph and the swell bumps up a touch of energy (167). But we're still talking about a knee-to-waist high wave on a short period. It's just something to get wet on.

Then we hit a real dead spell. From the 4th through the 7th, there’s almost nothing. Swell drops to 0.6ft and 1ft at times. It's a proper flat spell. You’d be better off checking the tide charts or fixing a blown-out fin. Even the glassy morning on the 7th of August, where the wind drops to zero, sees just a tiny 0.6ft wobble. There's not enough there to push a leaf.

We do see a little pulse of life come back on Saturday the 8th. It's still small, around 3ft from the northwest, but the wind is light and there’s a window of glassy conditions in the afternoon. It's surfable, but still ordinary. The period is only 8 seconds, so it’s not going to have much punch.

The longest-range hope, and I mean hope, is around Monday the 10th of August. The swell pushes up to 4ft from the northwest, with a period of 9 seconds and a moderate energy reading of (235). The morning wind is a light cross-offshore, which should keep it relatively clean. It’s the best looking day in the whole run, but it’s a week and a half out, so treat it as promising but not a done deal. The water temp is 63°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least it’s not freezing.

After that, it's more of the same – a lot of small, short-period, wind-affected slop. The 15th of August brings a bit more size, up to 5ft, but it's with a messy 7-second period and cross-shore winds. That’s more of a messy, blown-out affair than a clean surf.

Honestly, Dumps (Brandon Bay) is fairly consistent and fairly exposed, so it tends not to stay this poor for long. But for the next two weeks, you’re going to have to be patient. There are no clear standouts. If you’re desperate, that Sunday the 2nd afternoon or the Saturday the 8th glass-off might be your best bet for a small, clean session. For the rest, I’d be looking for another hobby.

Keep the faith, and check back in a week. The long-range stuff on the 10th could be worth the wait.

Rusty.

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