Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, grab a brew and listen up. The forecast for the Dumps is a proper mixed bag over the next couple of weeks. We’re looking at a long stretch of waiting, but there are a couple of windows worth your time. We’ve got plenty of swell, but for most of the period, the wind and the waves just aren’t going to line up for us. It’s all about picking your moment.

Now, the first week and a bit is rough. From this Saturday through to the following Thursday, the surf is going to be a mess. There’s some size in the water, but it’s mostly cross-onshore, lumpy, and chopped up. The energy is there, with combined swell energy reading from 424 to over 2,900, but it’s all for nothing. The wind is the killer, and it’s just going to be blown out. Not worth the paddle, honestly. The swell is short-period at times, down to 8 seconds on Monday, which is just not going to organize. There’s some moderate energy (693) on Sunday morning with a bit of a lighter cross breeze, but the wave comment just says it’s marginal. You’d be fighting a losing battle.

The real highlight, and I mean the only real standout of this whole forecast, comes on the 23rd of September, a Wednesday. After a week and a half of junk, we finally get a break in the wind. The SSE breeze is light and cross-offshore, which should groom the swell into something clean and fun. The waves are around 7ft at Dumps (Brandon Bay), with a period of 8-9 seconds. The energy is moderate, around 800. It’s not the biggest swell of the month, but it’s clean, and that’s everything. This is your best bet for a proper surf.

There’s a second potential window on the 25th of September, a Friday. The morning is looking a bit average, but Friday afternoon has that magic word: glassy. The wind drops away completely, and the NNW breeze is right offshore. The swell is a touch bigger at 8ft from the WNW, with more period at 11 seconds and moderate to strong energy (1,365). This one is marked for experienced surfers, and that bigger, cleaner swell will be packing more push. It’s a promising window, but it’s further out, so keep an eye on it.

The period after that, heading into the 26th and 27th, gets blown out again with strong breeze and heavy rain, and the swell jumps right up to 16ft. That’s a big, angry ocean with a very long 16-second period. That’s for someone else, not for a paddle. That’s four-to-five-digit energy, just a massive amount of power. Not our day.

So, my call for the next couple of weeks is patience. The first ten days are pretty much a write-off. But keep your eyes on that Wednesday the 23rd and maybe the Friday the 25th. The forecast for Dumps (Brandon Bay) isn’t amazing, but there are a couple of proper sessions in there if you can wait for them.

The water is running a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so it’s not freezing, which is a bonus.

Rusty

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