Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a long look at the only game in town for the next sixteen days: Dumps (Brandon Bay). I’ll be straight with you, it’s a bit of a mixed bag, but there’s a light at the end of the tunnel if you’ve got patience.

The overall pattern is pretty grim to start. We’ve got a run of poor surf stretching from the end of August all the way into the first week of September. The wind is just not playing ball, mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and that keeps the surface messy. For the first week, from Saturday 29th of August through to Friday 4th of September, the swell is either small or mostly blown out. There’s a real gap of days with nothing worth paddling out for.

Things start to look a bit more interesting around Saturday 5th of September. The swell is a solid 7ft from the west (moderate wave energy – 1136) but it’s still a bit messy with a cross-shore breeze. It’s more of a marginal one, but it’s a step in the right direction.

Now, the standout. The real window is Sunday 6th of September. Early morning, we’ve got clean conditions with an offshore breeze from the east, light wind. Swell is a good 6ft from the west with a period of 10 seconds, pushing moderate energy (871). This is the best on offer. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, so nothing wild there. Dumps is a fairly exposed spot, and with the swell direction coming from the west – which is bang on the optimum north-west direction – it should set up nicely. It’s also fairly consistent, so you’ll get waves, but it can get crowded sometimes, so keep an eye out for company. This is the morning to be in the water.

After that, we’re back into a mix of stronger winds and choppy conditions through the second week. Swell stays around 5ft to 8ft, but the wind turns onshore again or goes cross-shore, making it messy. The period stays short, mostly 8 to 9 seconds, so it’s not the most powerful or well-shaped. For the more experienced crew, the bigger swell days (over 8ft) on Monday 7th and Tuesday 8th of September could be on, but with strong cross-onshore winds and chop, it’s going to be a battle. It might look more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing those days.

By the time we hit Wednesday 9th of September and beyond, the swell drops right off, and the wind stays messy. There’s a little spike of longer period swell (14 seconds) on Sunday 13th of September, but it’s only 2ft, so it’s nothing to get excited about.

So, the bottom line: sit tight. The first week is a write-off. But if you can get out on the morning of Sunday 6th of September, that’s your window. Clean, west swell, offshore breeze. That’s the one.

Rusty.

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