Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, let’s talk about the next couple of weeks at Dumps (Brandon Bay). I’m not gonna lie to you, it’s a tough stretch of forecasts. The water is sitting at 64°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s a small plus if you’re brave enough to get in.

We’re starting off on Saturday, the 29th of August, with tiny 2ft windswell out of the WNW and a period of just 4 seconds. The combined energy is a weak 22, and with a 9 mph onshore wind, it’s just not going to be worth paddling out.

Sunday the 30th brings a bit more size at 5ft, coming from the west with a period of 10 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 361 (moderate), but the wind is either cross-onshore from the SW or onshore from the WNW. It’s going to be choppy and messy.

Monday the 31st is more of the same – 5ft of west swell, period around 10 seconds, energy at 559, but again, the wind is onshore or cross-onshore. The surf quality is consistently described as poor.

The pattern continues into Tuesday the 1st and Wednesday the 2nd of September. Wednesday morning sees the swell bump up to 6ft from the WSW, with a short period of 8 seconds. The energy is moderate (460), but the wind is a moderate cross-onshore at 16 mph, and there’s even some light rain. It’s just not clean.

Now, Thursday the 3rd of September is a different beast. The swell is massive – 12ft in the morning, building to 16ft in the afternoon. The period stretches to 12 seconds, so it’s a proper groundswell. The combined energy is a huge 2958 (strong) in the morning and a massive 7500 (very strong) in the afternoon. But here’s the kicker: the wind is a howling onshore 25 mph westerly. That’s a strong breeze. That much swell with that much wind is going to be a complete washing machine. For experts only, and even then, it’s going to be a battle. The shape at a beach break like Dumps with that long period will be straight and dumpy too.

Friday the 4th is still big – 13ft in the morning, dropping to 10ft in the afternoon. The wind eases up to a fresh breeze (19 mph) and then a moderate breeze (12 mph), but it’s still onshore. The afternoon gets a “marginal” rating, which is the best we’ve seen, but with 10ft and onshore wind, it’s still heavy and messy.

The weekend of the 5th and 6th of September is a letdown. The swell drops back to 4ft to 8ft, and the wind is either cross-onshore or cross-shore. Sunday the 6th morning has a fleeting moment of clean conditions with a cross-offshore wind from the south, 7ft of swell, and energy of 665. That’s the closest to a surfable window we get, but it’s still only a “marginal” call.

The second week is a real mix. Monday the 7th has 7ft swell but with a strong breeze onshore (25 mph). Tuesday the 8th is smaller and still windy. Wednesday the 9th is tiny and onshore. Then, out of the blue, on Thursday the 10th of September, we get a surprise. The wind swings to a light cross-offshore from the ESE at 9 mph, and the swell is a clean 10ft from the west with a very long period of 15 seconds. The combined energy is a strong 2940. This is the standout of the whole forecast. The conditions are clean. Because the period is so long, at Dumps (a beach break) it might be a bit too straight and fast, but if you can find a peak, it could be the best day of the two weeks. The rating is only a 2 out of 10, but that’s the highest we see.

After that, we’re back to poor conditions. Friday the 11th is onshore, and the weekend of the 12th and 13th of September is a write-off, with a near gale blowing (34 mph) and blown-out conditions.

So, the honest truth is: there’s a lot of waiting for very little. The best bet is that Thursday the 10th of September for a clean, powerful, long-period swell, but it’s a long way off, so keep an eye on the charts. Otherwise, it’s a period of mostly poor or marginal surf. The area knows these blank runs, so don’t be too surprised.

Rusty.

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