Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s in store for Brandon Bay over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, it’s looking bleak. There’s a fair bit of swell coming through from the 26th of July, but the wind is working against us, mostly cross-onshore and choppy, wrecking any chance of clean waves. The water temperature is 63°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year.

The first real call is Dumps (Brandon Bay) on the 26th of July. We’ve got a solid 10ft swell from the WNW with a 10-second period, and the combined energy is at 1539, so there’s a ton of power. But with the wind a moderate cross-onshore from the NW at 16 mph, it’s choppy and poor. This is big stuff, only for the experienced crew.

On the 27th of July, the swell drops to 7ft on Monday morning and 6ft in the afternoon, still from the WNW, but the wind stays cross-onshore and choppy. Energy falls to 747 and 580. Still no go.

From the 28th of July through the 31st, the swell keeps dropping from 5ft down to 3ft, the period gets shorter, and the wind stays messy, mostly cross or cross-onshore. Energy drops into the two and three-digit range. All of these are a pass.

The start of August isn’t much better. Saturday the 1st has tiny 2ft to 3ft swell with energy in the 80s, and only light cross-shore wind but the conditions are poor. Sunday the 2nd sees a bump back up to 4ft from the WSW with a 9-second period and 315 energy, but the wind is a fresh cross-shore at 19 mph, lumpy and messy.

We finally get a small window of cleaner conditions on Monday the 3rd of August. The afternoon has 4ft swell from the WSW with a 9-second period, 211 energy, and a light cross-offshore breeze from the SSE, giving clean waves. The surf is pretty ordinary, but it’s surfable. That’s the best on offer.

Tuesday the 4th of August afternoon turns glassy with 3ft swell from the WSW, 118 energy, and no wind. Very ordinary waves, but clean enough for a paddle.

From the 5th of August, the swell bumps up again, with 6ft from the WNW Wednesday morning and 6ft from the NW Wednesday afternoon, energy hitting 351 and 394. But the wind turns cross-onshore and choppy, so it’s poor or marginal.

Thursday the 6th gets raw with a strong cross-onshore wind at 25 mph. Friday the 7th of August gives another glassy window with 4ft swell from the W, 196 energy. Surfable but ordinary.

The second week fades out with low energy and poor winds. The pick of the whole run is the glassy moments on the 4th and 7th of August, but the waves are small and average.

There are long stretches of days with no decent surf. It’s a rough patch, but that’s how it goes sometimes around here. The water’s a touch warmer than average, so just gotta wait for the wind to clean up.

Stay patient.

Rusty.

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