Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here, giving you the rundown for the next couple of weeks. It’s a tale of two halves, so listen up.

The first part of the period is a full-on mess. Onshore winds, building swell, and poor conditions across the board. We’re looking at waves pushing 4.5m on Thursday with strong winds, and that’s just not going to be any fun. This stretch is a write-off for a proper surf. The water is 17°, a bit warmer than the usual for this time, but you won't be noticing that when you're getting blown off your board. The energy is massive, readings of 7547, but it’s all onshore chaos.

After the initial blowout, things calm down a touch, but the surf quality stays ordinary until the weekend. Your first real chance at a gem is the morning of Sunday, September 20th. The swell has eased to a clean 2.5m, and we finally get a bit of that offshore magic, with light SSE winds. The power is still significant, and this is not a day for beginners. It’s an experienced surfer’s wave, big and challenging, but with those clean conditions, it’s about as good as it gets. The energy is strong at 1488.

The following week, the standouts are all about clean lines and lighter winds. Monday the 21st morning has a really nice 1.8m swell with light offshore winds and clean conditions. Then, Tuesday the 22nd brings in a long-period groundswell from the WNW, a big 16-second pulse. This pushes the size up to 2.4m and adds plenty of power. This is real, proper groundswell, and it’s going to be a handful, but a fun one. A long period like that can makethings a bit shifty, but when it’s clean, it’s a thing of beauty.

After that, the surf drops and we settle into a smaller, cleaner pattern. The rest of the week eases off, but still has some fun waves early in the mornings. Then we come to the final stretch. The standout in the second week is the 30th of September, Wednesday morning. The wind goes completely glassy and the swell is a small but fun 1.3m. It’s an “expect good surf conditions” call, and with zero wind, it's going to be as clean as it gets. This is likely the most user-friendly day for all levels, a great way to end the period.

The very end of the forecast gets pretty small, with a few days of tiny surf and weak energy. The call gets a bit more tricky, and the long-range outlook is less certain. But for now, that window around the 30th of September looks like a real treat. The breaks at Dumps (Brandon Bay) can get a bit crowded when it's good, but that's a small price to pay for clean waves. Mark your calendar for the 30th, as that’s probably a good call.

So to sum it up: the early period is a right-off, but there's some classic surf to be had from the 20th through the 23rd, and then again on the 30th. Go get some.

Rusty, signing off.

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