Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the menu for Brandon Bay over the next couple of weeks.

To be honest, if you’re looking for a good session, you’re going to be waiting a while. The surf quality is pretty grim for the first week or so. From Thursday, 13 August, right through to the end of the following week, the conditions are just ordinary. We’ve got small, weak swell bumping into a lot of cross and cross-onshore wind, making for chop and ripples. The combined wave energy is weak, sitting between 59 and 279, and that’s just not enough to get excited about. There’s a real gap here with no real standouts.

The first real flicker of hope comes on Sunday, 16 August, in the morning. Dumps (Brandon Bay) will see a tiny 3 ft swell from the NW, but the wind drops to a glassy 5 mph from the SSW. That’s the kind of quiet you can hear a pin drop on the water. It’s surfable, but very ordinary – just a little ankle-to-knee-high bump. The energy is only 82, so you’re not getting much push.

Now, the big one. Wednesday, 19 August, is a monster on paper, but it’s a classic case of *don’t get fooled*. We’ve got a massive 15 ft swell from the WNW, with a period of 11 seconds, and the combined energy is a whopping 4252. That’s a lot of power. But the wind is howling from the NW at 25 mph, cross-on, making it an absolute washing machine. It’s blown out, messy, and frankly, dangerous. This is expert-only territory, and even then, it’s going to be a slog. The setup is more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The best chance for a clean wave comes on Thursday, 20 August, in the morning. The swell drops to a more manageable 6 ft from the NW, with a 9-second period (702 energy). The wind swings around to a NNE breeze at 15 mph, giving us a clean, cross-off wind. This is the standout of the whole forecast. The conditions are clean, the swell is solid, and it’s an intermediate-friendly size. It’s not a total classic, but it’s the best you’ll get. Just be aware, Dumps can get crowded sometimes, so you might have some company.

After that, the end of the month looks like a slow fade. Friday, 22 August, has a glassy morning with a 3 ft W swell, but the energy is low (126). Sunday, 23 August, sees a clean 3 ft W swell with a cross-off wind, but again, it’s small. The final week from 24 August onwards is mostly onshore slop or strong wind, with a few spots of rain and even thunderstorms. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, so no need for a thicker wetsuit just yet.

So, bottom line: if you’ve got to paddle out, aim for the morning of Thursday, 20 August. That’s your one true window. Everything else is a gamble or a wait.

Stay salty,
Rusty.

Read more