Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right now, Dumps (Brandon Bay) is just not doing it. We’ve got a solid run of swell on the way, but for the next few days the wind is going to be all over it—onshore and cross-onshore, lumpy, messy. Tuesday morning’s got 7ft of WNW swell, but it’s coming in with a moderate onshore breeze, and the water’s sitting at 62°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year. Not a lot to get excited about yet.

Wednesday pushes up to 8ft with a 10-second period, but again, the wind’s on it, and Thursday gets properly big—12ft to 15ft of WNW groundswell, strong breeze, poor conditions. That’s not surf for the faint-hearted; that’s more of a paddle-out-and-hold-on situation, and only for experts if it’s even rideable. The energy is strong, sitting at 3092 and then jumping to 8350 by Thursday afternoon, but it’s ugly.

Friday eases a bit but stays messy, with a cross-shore breeze and lumpy conditions. The swell drops to around 10ft to 12ft, but it’s still marginal. The tide’s questionable and the wind’s not helping. I’d skip it.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Sunday the 20th, morning—finally. The wind swings to a light SSE cross-offshore, the swell is 8ft from WNW with a 12-second period, and the energy reads 1502. The conditions are clean, and for experienced surfers this is the standout of the first week. Dumps is fairly consistent, so you should get sets, but it’s a beach setup, so with that longer-period groundswell, some waves might close out a bit—still, the clean face makes it worth it. Crowds are sometimes an issue here, so get out early.

After that, the mid-week drops off a bit. Monday the 21st has some 6ft WNW, light cross-shore wind, but it’s marginal. Nothing special.

Then Tuesday the 22nd morning—glass. A light SSE cross-offshore, 5ft but the period jumps to 15 seconds—that’s a proper groundswell. Very clean, excellent for experienced surfers. The energy is 1422, moderate. This is another standout, though that long period at a beach break can be a bit straight—still, it’s clean and glassy, so take it.

Wednesday the 23rd and Thursday the 24th are small but clean—5ft to 5ft, cross-offshore light breezes, clean faces. Good for a grovel, not a highlight. The energy’s dropping into the 500-700 range, so it’s weak.

Friday the 25th fades to under 3ft—not worth the paddle. But hold on: Saturday the 26th morning gets a bump—8ft from W with a 14-second period, light cross-offshore wind, clean. The energy jumps to 2791, which is moderate-to-strong. That’s a decent swell, but with the long period, again watch out for the beach break closing out. The afternoon is even better—slight air, glassy, 7ft, 13 seconds, clean conditions. That’s a good session for experienced crew.

Sunday the 27th drops back to 5ft with a cross-onshore breeze, choppy—skip it.

Then Monday the 28th morning—this is the real gem. Slight air, cross-offshore from the SE, 6ft from NW with a 12-second period, and the energy at 891. It’s clean, very good surf conditions, and the wind is light. The swell direction matches the NW optimum, and though it’s not huge, it’s clean and fun. That’s probably the best quality session of the whole window—small but perfect.

After that, Tuesday the 29th gets messy again with fresh cross-shore winds, and the swell drops to 5ft, poor conditions. Nothing worth chasing.

Wednesday the 30th is tiny—3ft, light cross-onshore, marginal at best. The window just fades out.

So, the big takeaways: Sunday the 20th and Tuesday the 22nd are your first real standouts—both clean, both with proper WNW groundswell. Saturday the 26th has size and clean conditions, but watch the long period. Monday the 28th is the cleanest, most enjoyable session of the lot, even if it’s smaller. The gaps in between are mostly dominated by wind and chop, so pick your windows.

Overall, the energy fluctuates between moderate and strong, but the wind is the deciding factor. If you can get out on the 20th, 22nd, 26th, or 28th mornings, you’ll find something worth the paddle. Otherwise, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty

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