Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it for Dumps at Brandon Bay.

The outlook is a bit of a tough one. We’ve got a solid 16-day window ahead, but right now it’s a waiting game. There’s a gap of several days with no real surf on offer, so don’t be in a rush to grab your board just yet. The water temp is sitting at 64°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you won’t need a thick wetsuit.

We start to see something stirring on Tuesday, the 25th of August. The morning session is your best bet with a 3ft swell from the west, a 9-second period, and a light cross-offshore breeze from the ESE at 6 mph. The combined energy is moderate at 171, and while it’s surfable, the conditions are very ordinary. The afternoon improves slightly with a cleaner offshore wind from the east at 9 mph, but the swell drops to 3ft. It’s small and clean, but nothing to write home about.

Wednesday the 26th and Thursday the 27th are a bust. The swell drops right off on Wednesday, down to 2ft with a short period, and the wind gets messy. Thursday sees a bit more size – 3ft from the WNW – but the wind is a cross-offshore in the morning and turns cross-onshore and choppy in the afternoon. It’s all poor surf conditions.

Friday the 28th through the weekend is a write-off. Onshore winds, poor quality, and the swell is all over the place. A 4ft swell on Saturday from the NNW with a tiny 5-second period is just weak, lumpy junk. The combined energy is low (95), and it’s not worth paddling out for.

The first half of the following week turns nasty. Monday the 31st of August sees a 3ft west swell but with onshore winds at 16 mph, and it’s still poor. Then Tuesday the 1st of September brings a 8ft west swell, but the wind is howling from the SW at 22-25 mph with a cross-onshore direction. The combined energy is very strong (1064), but the quality is blown out. This is more of a kite-surfing setup than a clean paddle session.

The rest of the week is more of the same: big, powerful swells up to 10ft on Thursday the 3rd of September, but with gale-force cross-onshore winds at 43 mph. The combined energy is massive (1554), but it’s completely unsurfable for a paddle. Definitely not for the faint of heart, and only for experts if you’re crazy enough.

The second week continues this pattern. The 6th of September sees a 12ft west swell with a long 12-second period, but with a near-gale cross-shore wind at 31 mph. That’s a massive 3680 of combined energy, but it’s a total mess. The best chance of a clean wave might be on Wednesday the 9th of September, when the swell drops to 5ft from the west and the wind eases to a light cross-onshore from the SW at 6 mph. It’s still marginal, but the combined energy is moderate (876) and conditions are the best we’ve seen in a while. It’s a long shot, but it’s all we’ve got.

So, to be honest, there aren’t any true standouts in this 16-day window. The wind is just too strong and onshore for most of it. If you’re desperate, the Tuesday morning session on the 25th of August is the closest you’ll get to a clean wave, but keep your expectations in check. Other than that, it’s a waiting game for a better pattern.

Rusty.

Read more