Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your board and wax, I’m Rusty, and I’m lookin’ at the next couple weeks for Dumps. No other spots in the mix this time, just this one break, so let’s get into it.

The water temperature is sitting at 63° right now, which is a touch warmer than normal for the season – nothing wild, just a little extra comfort when you’re sittin’ out there.

So, the first proper surf window kicks off on Monday the 24th of August. That afternoon we’ve got a solid 4ft swell rolling in from the WNW with an 11-second period, giving moderate wave energy (383). Winds are glassy from the east at just 3 mph. It’s gonna be clean, lined-up, and real inviting. This is the best on offer in the early part of the run – that glassy surface makes all the difference. Crowds are possible here at Dumps, so you might have some company, but it’s worth it.

Tuesday the 25th still has some surf, but it’s dialing back. Morning brings 3ft from the west, 9-second period (171), with a light offshore wind. It’s clean, but nothing special. The afternoon drops to 3ft and the wind picks up a bit. Still surfable, but ordinary.

Wednesday the 26th fades fast – 2ft and then 2ft with cross-shore winds. The energy is weak (down to 41). It’s a no-go for a paddle. Really, from Thursday the 27th through to the end of August, it gets messy. Winds turn cross-onshore, the swell direction goes all over the place, and the scores are low. Friday the 28th sees a lumpy 7ft from the NW, but it’s short-period (7 seconds) and cross-onshore, so it’s a chop-fest. Not for surfing.

There’s a long gap of poor conditions from the 26th through to the end of August. We’re looking at almost a week of nothing worthwhile – blown out, chopped up, or just flat.

Then, on Wednesday the 2nd of September, a big pulse arrives: 10ft from the west, but the wind is a near gale at 34 mph from the WNW. It’s blown out, dangerous, and the combined swell energy is through the roof (1385). Thursday the 3rd offers a brief reprieve: afternoon glassy conditions with a 4ft west swell, 9-second period (383). That’s a surprise clean session in the middle of the chaos.

But the real standout – the one you’ll want to circle on your calendar – is Saturday the 5th of September. Both morning and afternoon deliver a solid 12ft groundswell from the WNW, with a long 11-second period. The energy is very strong (3030 and 2573). Winds are glassy, dead calm in the morning, and a slight air in the afternoon. This is clean, powerful, and for experienced surfers only. It’s pumping, and it’s the best of the entire 16-day outlook. Crowds are possible, but that quality makes it worth it.

Sunday the 6th still has some size (6ft) but the wind picks up and it becomes marginal. Later in the week, on Monday the 7th of September, the forecast shows 36ft and 30ft waves – that’s way, way too big for this break. Even if the wind is okay, it’s a danger zone, not a fun session.

So, to sum it up: your best windows are Monday afternoon the 24th of August for a clean, moderate session, and Saturday the 5th of September for a big, glassy, expert-level swell. Everything else in between is mostly a write-off or a mission.

- Rusty

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