Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's chew the fat on what Dumps (Brandon Bay) is cooking up. It's a pretty weird run, not a lot to get genuinely frothy about, but there are a couple of little windows that might get you out of bed.

The next few days are flat out dead. Saturday, August 22nd and Sunday the 23rd are a total no-go. We're talking ankle-snappers at 1 ft from the WSW going NW, with energy readings barely scraping into the teens or twenties. Morning winds are glassy or offshore, but there's literally nothing to ride. Don't bother.

Monday morning, August 24th, is where you'll find the best chance for a clean paddle. We’ve got a proper 4 ft groundswell out of the NW, with a 11-second period, giving it a moderate energy punch of 337. The wind is a gentle offshore from the ESE, so it should be clean and lined up. It's not a monster, but it's the best combination of size and conditions in the first week. The water temp feels about what you'd expect for this time of year.

Tuesday the 25th and Wednesday the 26th mornings are still rideable but the swell drops back to 2 ft to 3 ft and the energy fades. The wind stays light and favorable, so if you've got a log and a short attention span, those early sessions will be fun. The crowds here pop up "sometimes," but the smaller waves keep the lineup pretty mellow.

Then things go sideways. From Thursday, August 27th, through the weekend, the wind cranks up from the NW and onshore, just shredding the surface. Even when the swell hits 6 ft on Saturday the 29th, the cross-shore wind makes for a bumpy, choppy mess. That combination of strong wind and average surf makes this look way more fun on a kite than a surfboard.

We hit a real slump from Sunday, August 30th, all the way through the first days of September. The wind is relentless, the conditions are consistently poor with high energy numbers from stormy windswell. Nothing to recommend.

But here's the late-breaking news. Wednesday, September 2nd, we see a real injection of power. A massive 13 ft groundswell from the WSW, with a 13-second period, pushes the energy into the stratosphere at 4805. The wind on Wednesday morning is a moderate cross-offshore, so it should be clean and powerful. But at that size, it's strictly for the experienced crew. The long period could make it a bit walled-off on a beach setup, offering a serious, heavy paddle. The following days keep the swell in the 6 ft to 8 ft range with good period, offering more strong waves for those who are game.

So, the two highlights: the clean but modest session on Monday morning, August 24th, and the serious groundswell pulse on Wednesday morning, September 2nd. The rest is a wasteland of small, wind-blown junk or big, blown-out junk. That long gap of poor surf is a bummer, but that late-summer energy is a good sign.

Rusty.

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