Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let's get into it. Rusty here.

First up, we're looking at Dumps in Brandon Bay. The swell window is open to the northwest, which is a good sign for this spot. But honestly, the next ten days or so look pretty grim. We've got a solid run of onshore, cross-shore, and just generally messy winds that are going to wreck whatever swell is coming through. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing to write home about.

From August 19th through to the 23rd, it's a write-off. Strong winds, lumpy conditions, and the wave energy is all over the place. The 20th sees a 10 ft NW swell, but with a fresh cross-shore wind, it's a mess. The 23rd morning offers a moment of glassy conditions, but with a tiny 2 ft wave, it's not going to be worth the paddle out.

Then, on the morning of Monday, the 24th, we finally see a glimmer of hope. The wind shifts to glassy, and a 4 ft NW swell with a period of 11 seconds rolls in. The combined energy is moderate (405), and this is the first time we see "expect good surf conditions" in the notes. This is your best bet for the whole outlook. The waves will have some shape and the clean conditions will make it a joy. But don't expect it to last, as the afternoon turns marginal.

August 25th morning offers clean, cross-offshore winds again, but the waves are a bit weaker at 5 ft from the west. Still, it's a solid option if you missed the Monday morning session.

After that, it's back to poor conditions until the morning of August 27th, which again shows clean, cross-offshore wind with a 5 ft W swell. It's a runner-up, but nothing compared to that Monday morning.

August 30th through to September 1st sees a massive jump in swell size, up to 16 ft, but the wind is a strong cross-onshore. The combined wave energy is huge (over 7000), but it's a total mess. This is expert-only territory, and even then, it's more likely to be a kite-surfing show than a paddle-surfing session. August 30th is a day to watch from the shore.

The first week of September is a write-off, with strong winds and messy conditions. The morning of September 3rd sees a 7 ft W swell, but with a strong cross-onshore wind, it's not worth the drive.

So, to wrap it up: The stand-out is the morning of Monday, August 24th. Get there early. The 25th and 27th mornings are the next best, but they don't come close to the quality of that Monday session. The rest is a long, flat, and windy wait.

Rusty.

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