Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here, looking at the Dumps (Brandon Bay) forecast for the next couple of weeks. Let me tell ya, we've got a bit of a rough patch to get through before things clean up.

The first few days are junk. We're looking at cross-onshore winds and a bumpy sea with waves around 4 to 5 feet. The swell energy is moderate, but it's messy. Don't bother waxing up for Sunday the 30th through Wednesday the 2nd, it's going to be a write-off. The water temp is sitting around 64°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but you won't be feeling it with all that chop.

Now, hold on to your leash, because things get proper wild from Thursday the 3rd. A big groundswell rolls in with the period stretching out to 12 seconds. By Friday the 4th, we're talking 13 to 16 feet of raw power, with the combined swell energy just exploding. But the wind is howling onshore and it's going to be a full-on washing machine. This is expert-only, and even then, it's less about surfing and more about survival. The water's going to be lumpy and onshore, so if you're not a charger, this is the week to find a river mouth or a sheltered cove. Honestly, this looks more interesting for the kite crew than us paddle surfers.

After that fury, the swell eases down but the wind finally plays ball. Saturday morning, September 5th, is our first real standout. We've got a clean 6 feet of WNW swell with light offshore SSE winds. It's glassy, it's clean. The break is fairly consistent and while it's fairly exposed, that offshore wind will groom it nice. This is the day to get after it, a true gem in the rubble. It'll be a touch crowded maybe, but worth it for those clean shoulders.

After that bright spot, the conditions slip back into poor surf for the next stretch with the wind coming onshore again for a few days. We see another window on Monday the 7th, but it's a bit more onshore and lumpy with 8 feet of swell, a marginal call at best.

The second week is pretty lackluster. By the 10th we're down to knee-high dribble and it just fades away. There's a small clean window on Saturday the 12th with 3 feet of swell and light offshore winds, but it's not much more than a knee-to-waist high option. A few other clean mornings with offshore breezes pop up on the 13th, 14th, but the swell is tiny, generally under 3 feet. The long-period swells we see then will be breaking too straight for this kind of set-up too. It's a waiting game.

So, the plan is simple: grit your teeth, sit out the chaos, and make the most of the dawn patrol on Saturday the 5th. That’s the one.

Rusty out.

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