Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, let's have a look at what's coming down the line for Dumps (Brandon Bay). It’s a fairly exposed spot with a NW optimum, and we’re in for a proper mixed bag over the next couple of weeks. There's a rough patch to get through first, with a lot of strong wind and messy conditions, but there are a couple of windows that are definitely worth keeping an eye on.

We’ve got a big, raw start to things. Friday the 4th is a total write-off with a strong W wind hammering a solid 13ft WNW swell. The energy is massive (4742), but with that wind on it, it’s just a stormy, blown-out mess. A couple of days of cross-off winds on Saturday and Sunday sizes down a bit. Saturday morning the 5th is your first real glimmer with a clean 8ft WNW swell and a light S wind coming cross-off. The combined energy is still strong (1170) and the conditions look good, but it’s still a bit of a handful. The water temp is about average for this time of year.

Sunday the 6th is a write-off again with a strong S wind turning things lumpy, and the following week is a brutal stretch of strong cross-onshore and onshore winds. The swell sticks around through Tuesday the 8th with 12ft WNW lines, but the wind is on it, making it unsurfable. This pattern of poor conditions persists right through until Thursday the 11th.

Right, here's the standout. After that long grim run, Saturday the 12th of September is the morning to circle in your calendar. We’ve got a clean 7ft WNW groundswell with a nice 11-second period, and the wind is offshore from the ENE. That’s a recipe for some clean, lined-up sets. The energy is strong (1114). This will bring proper, powerful waves. It’s going to be very good, but with that size, it’s not one for the beginners. It’s an intermediate to expert session.

Sunday morning the 13th is a nice follow-up with a smaller 5ft swell and glassy conditions from a light SSE breeze. That’s the pick for a more relaxed session, though it will be less powerful.

After that, the outlook turns shaky again. Monday the 14th sees a bump back up to 10ft, but the wind is cross-onshore and choppy, so it's a miss. The rest of the second week is a slow fade into smaller, weaker swells with persistent cross and cross-onshore winds. The energy drops way off (down to 152 by the 18th), and the surf looks pretty forgettable.

So, to sum it up: suffer through the first week, then be ready for a brilliant Saturday morning session on the 12th. The Sunday after is a decent smaller option too, but don't expect much else that's clean.

Rusty.

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