Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, let’s talk about the next couple of weeks. It’s all about one break: Dumps (Brandon Bay). That’s it for the whole 16-day run. It’s a fairly consistent, intermediate-level beach break, set up to catch NW swell. The water temp is about what you’d expect for this time of year.

The first several days are a total bust. From Wednesday the 16th right through Friday the 18th, it’s a war zone. Swell is way overhead, 8ft to 15ft, but the wind is howling onshore or cross-onshore at 20 to 25 mph, even stronger. The wave energy is cranked into the thousands – we’re seeing numbers like 3643, 7322, 4682 – but it’s just a churning mess of closeouts. This is big-boy territory if it was clean, but it ain’t. Stay on the beach.

The first look-in is Saturday the 19th. Swell drops a bit to 10ft, but it’s still onshore. It’s a marginal day at best.

Sunday the 20th morning is the big standout. Swell is a solid 8ft from the WNW, 11-second period, but the wind finally plays ball. It’s a light cross-offshore breeze from the SSE at just 6 mph, and it’s clean. The energy is still strong at 1803, but with that wind, the waves will have shape. For anyone intermediate and up, this is your window. The afternoon turns a bit onshore, so make the morning session count.

Monday the 21st is a smaller, less exciting day.

Tuesday the 22nd morning is the quality call. Swell is 6ft, but the period is a *very* long 17 seconds from the WNW. That’s proper groundswell. With a light cross-offshore wind and clean conditions, the energy reading is 2336. Those waves will have real push and power. Just remember, a long-period swell on a beach break can get a bit straight and walling. For an experienced surfer, this is a really interesting morning.

Wednesday the 23rd stays clean and cross-offshore with 6ft to 7ft swell and a 13-second period. Another very good day.

Things get smaller and quieter from the 24th onward. Friday the 25th afternoon has a glass-off moment with 5ft waves and no wind. Good for a funboard.

That weekend of the 27th sees another pulse of 8ft to 10ft swell, but with cross-shore winds, it looks lumpy again.

By the end of September and into October, the surf drops right off to tiny, clean, waist-high stuff. Not a lot of energy there.

The Call: Sunday the 20th morning is your best bet for a proper, clean, overhead session. Tuesday the 22nd morning is the pick for quality, long-period groundswell if you can handle a tricky beach break. The 23rd is a solid backup day.

Rusty.

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