Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s shaking for the next couple of weeks.

We’ve got a bit of a slow start, but there’s a window of surf coming through that’s worth keeping an eye on. The first few days are pretty quiet, but we do get a pulse of energy that sets up the best conditions of the stretch.

The only break on the menu is Dumps (Brandon Bay). The water temp is sitting at 63°, which is a couple of degrees warmer than average for this time of year, so you’ll be feeling that touch of extra warmth on your skin.

The first real chance for a paddle comes on Thursday morning, July 9th. It’s early, but it’s a beauty. You’ve got a 4ft swell out of the west, a 9-second period, and the wind is glassy. That’s the kind of morning you set your alarm for. The combined swell energy is moderate (281), and the lack of any wind chop means it’ll be clean. It’s a small-scale, beginner-friendly day, but for Dumps, that’s a good thing.

Then, Friday morning, July 10th, is the standout. The swell bumps up a touch to 4ft from the west, but the period stretches to 11 seconds, giving it more push. The wind is a clean cross-offshore from the NNE, and the combined energy jumps to 388 – that’s solid moderate energy. The waves will have some shape to them, and the crowd factor is only “sometimes,” so you might get a few waves to yourself.

After that, the swell drops off fast. From Saturday the 11th right through to the end of the window, it’s a sad story. By Sunday the 12th, we’re down to 2ft and weak energy (54). The wind turns onshore or cross-shore most days, and the wave heights barely reach 2ft. There’s a long stretch of flat, choppy, or just plain messy conditions from Monday the 13th all the way out to Wednesday the 23rd. The swell does pick up a bit around the 20th and 21st, with 3ft waves and moderate energy (153), but the wind is howling onshore at 22-25 mph, so it’s blown out and messy. That’s kite-surfing weather, not for a paddle.

So, to sum it up: your best bet is Thursday morning, July 9th for the glassy conditions, and Friday morning, July 10th for the best combination of size, period, and clean wind. The rest of the 16 days is a write-off. Don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

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