Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Dumps (Brandon Bay) over the next couple of weeks. I gotta be straight with ya – it’s a rough start. We’ve got some serious size on the way, but the wind is gonna be a menace for most of it. Don’t get your hopes up too early.

The pattern is all about big, unruly swell getting thrashed by strong onshore and cross-onshore winds. The water temp is sittin’ where you’d expect for this time of year, nothing wild there. For a spot that likes a good NW direction, the swell direction is often in the zone, but the wind just ruins the party. There are a couple of windows where it could clean up, but they’re short-lived and not for the faint of heart.

The first week is a write-off for clean waves. From Monday the 7th right through most of the week, we’re looking at lumpy, choppy conditions with the combined swell energy pumping hard – hitting four-digit figures like 1109 early on and climbing past 2000 as the week goes on. That’s a lot of juice, but with 16 to 25 mph winds howling onshore or cross-onshore, it’s just a mess. Tuesday the 8th sees 10 ft to 12 ft of WNW swell with a period of 10 seconds, but with 25 mph winds, it’s not surfable. By Thursday the 10th, we’ve still got 6 ft swell but the wind is still cross and cross-onshore, keeping it choppy. Friday the 11th afternoon sees a brief flicker of hope with clean offshore wind and a 5 ft WNW swell, and the wave energy drops to 354, but that’s a marginal call – you’d be gambling.

We hit a bit of a gap after that. Saturday the 12th brings a big, long-period swell (13 seconds, 8 ft to 10 ft, energy over 2000) but the cross-onshore wind is back. Sunday the 13th is the same story: cross-onshore wind ruining 5 ft to 6 ft of swell. Monday the 14th sees another pulse of 12 ft WNW swell with an onshore wind, energy hitting 2976 – again, just messy.

Now, if you’re a hardy soul, keep your eyes on the second week. Tuesday the 15th of September is the standout. We’ve got 10 ft of WNW swell in the morning with a 12-second period – that’s a solid groundswell. The combined energy is a massive 2783, so there’s plenty of power. The wind is a gentle cross-shore at 9 mph, which means it’s only got a slight cross-chop. This is big, expert-only territory – 10 ft is too much for beginners. The swell direction is perfect for Dumps, coming from the WNW. It’s a fairly exposed spot, so it will handle that size, but it’ll be a heavy, serious wave. The consistency is fairly consistent, and this is the one to aim for. The afternoon is still decent at 8 ft, but the wind picks up a touch.

Further out, Saturday the 19th and Sunday the 20th of September are also notable for sheer size. We’re talking 13 ft of WNW swell with a 12-second period on Saturday morning, and energy reading 5225 – that’s a beast. The wind is again a gentle cross-shore, which is ideal, but 13 ft is only for the most experienced. The same size rolls into Sunday morning with a 13 ft swell but a slight cross-onshore breeze, making it a bit lumpier. These are huge, powerful swells, and at a fairly exposed beach and reef setup, they’ll be intense. Honestly, with that kind of size and the right wind, it might be more of a kite-surfing show for the brave, but if you’re a charger, the morning of the 19th is your window.

Alright, that’s the long and short of it. The 15th is your best bet for a manageable, powerful day, and the 19th is for the big wave crew. The rest, you’re fighting the wind.

Rusty out.

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