Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the forecast for Dumps. It’s a bit of a mixed bag over the next couple of weeks, so let's break it down day by day.

The immediate future is pretty grim. We’ve got a couple of days of fresh, lumpy cross-onshore wind and messy surf to start with, so you can leave the board in the car for Wednesday and Thursday. The swell is there, but it’s all over the place, and the wind is just going to chop it up.

We finally see a bit of improvement on Friday the 7th. The wind swings around to a light cross-offshore breeze, and the surf cleans up. It’s not big, with waves around 2ft to 5ft, but it’s a start. The energy is weak, though, so it’s not going to be stellar. Saturday and Sunday are pretty average too, with onshore winds and marginal conditions. The swell pushes up to 7ft on Sunday morning, but the onshore wind will make it messy.

The first real standout doesn't come until Thursday the 13th in the afternoon. We see a jump in size to 7ft from the west, with a period of 10 seconds. The combined energy is strong, and the wind is only light. It’ll be a bit lumpy with a cross-shore ripple, but this is the most promising surf we’ve seen in a while.

But the real magic happens on Friday the 14th morning. The wind goes completely glassy, and it’s clean as a whistle. The swell is a solid 4ft from the northwest, with a period of 9 seconds. With the offshore breeze, Dumps is going to be firing. This is your window. Get out there early before the afternoon cross-onshore breeze kicks in and messes it up.

After that, it’s a bit of a rollercoaster. We have some poor, choppy days, and then a big pulse of swell arrives on Tuesday the 18th, with waves hitting 12ft. But that’s a lot of water, and the onshore wind will make it a washing machine. That’s expert-only territory, and even then, it might be more of a kite-surfing day than a paddle-surfing day.

The long-range forecast has another glimmer of hope on Wednesday the 19th. The wind goes glassy again, and we’ve got clean 5ft to 6ft waves from the west. It looks promising, but it’s a ways out, so don’t book the time off just yet.

So, to sum it up: if you want clean waves, your best bets are Friday morning the 14th, and possibly the afternoon of Thursday the 13th. The 19th looks good on paper, but we’ll have to see how it develops. There are a few flat days in there, but Dumps is fairly consistent, so it shouldn’t stay poor for too long.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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