Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Brandon Bay.

To be straight with you, the next week and a half is a bit of a write-off for quality surfing at Dumps (Brandon Bay). The onshore and cross-onshore winds are just too messy, and the wave comment keeps coming back as poor. We’ve got a long stretch of days where it’s just not worth paddling out. Starting Thursday the 23rd, it’s a tiny 2 ft NW windswell, and the wind is a cross-shore mess. The energy is feeble (32). Friday the 24th isn’t much better with a 3 ft NW swell, though the wave energy picks up a bit (134), but the wind is still cross-onshore. Saturday the 25th sees a solid 7 ft WNW swell push in, but it’s onshore wind and the energy is moderate (441) – a real choppy mess. That swell builds to 8 ft by Saturday afternoon with strong energy (1055), but still onshore. Sunday the 26th is the peak of this first pulse, with 8 ft WNW swell and very strong energy (1125), but the cross-onshore winds are a solid 16 mph, making it a lumpy, blown-out affair. This pattern of onshore or cross-onshore winds holds through to Wednesday the 29th, with the swell dropping from 6 ft back to 5 ft.

Now, there’s a glimmer of hope. The morning of Thursday the 30th of July is the first real sign of life. We get a clean 4 ft WNW swell with a light offshore wind from the ENE. The wave comment says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions” – it’s not a classic, but it’s the first clean window in a long time. The energy is moderate (207). After that, it goes quiet again until Friday the 31st of July afternoon. That’s when we get a clean, cross-offshore wind and a 5 ft WSW swell that jumps in with moderate energy (331), and the comment says “expect good surf conditions.” That’s our first real standout.

But the real highlight – the one you want to circle on the calendar – is Saturday the 1st of August. The morning session is looking like the pick of the entire 16-day window. We’ve got an 8 ft W swell with a period of 9 seconds, cross-offshore winds from the SSE, and very strong energy (1068). The wave comment is “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s a solid, powerful wave for intermediates. The 8 ft height is pushing into expert territory, so if you’re not confident, maybe sit this one out. The water temp is about 62°F, which is 2°F warmer than average for this time of year, so it’s a touch milder than usual.

Sunday the 2nd of August morning is still big, with a 10 ft NW swell and very long period of 11 seconds, and very strong energy (1677). That is a deep, powerful groundswell. However, the wind is cross-shore and moderate, and the wave comment drops to “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” That long period will make it break a bit straight at Dumps, a beach break, so it’s more for the experienced crew on a good tide. The afternoon turns into a fresh cross-shore mess with lumpy chop, so it’s a short-lived window.

After that, from Monday the 3rd of August onward, the swell fades fast and the winds go ugly again. We’re looking at small, weak, onshore dribble for the rest of the run. The energy drops to weak figures (62, 57, 59) and the conditions are just poor.

So, to sum it up: the best on offer is the morning of Saturday the 1st of August at Dumps. That’s your standout. Friday the 31st of July afternoon is a solid backup. The rest of the period is a long stretch of onshore slop, with a brief clean window on the morning of the 30th of July. Keep your eyes on the wind forecasts for that Saturday, and if it holds, it’s going to be a good one.

Rusty.

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