Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break it down. For the next couple of weeks, Dumps (Brandon Bay) is mostly a waiting game. The forecast shows a lot of poor surf, small waves, and tricky winds. The first real window of opportunity doesn’t show up until Wednesday morning, July 8th, and even that’s more about a chance to get wet than anything firing.

We start Monday, July 6th, with a light SW breeze and a small 4ft swell from the W, but the 8-second period gives it a weak, unorganised feel. The combined energy is only 165 (weak). It’s choppy, and the cross-onshore wind kills any hope of clean lines. Tuesday, July 7th, is a bit better with a 4ft WNW swell and a 9-second period, but it’s still cross-on and the quality is poor. The energy picks up a little to 256 (moderate), but the wind isn’t helping.

Now, Wednesday morning, July 8th – that’s the standout for the first week. The wind drops to glassy, dead calm, and the swell holds at 4ft from the W with a 9-second period. Combined energy is 208 (moderate). It’s not big, but glassy conditions are rare and precious. The waves will be clean, small, and fun for an intermediate. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, nothing unusual. After that, the wind gets messy again through Thursday and Friday, with the swell staying small and a cross-shore chop making it tough.

Saturday, July 11th, morning sees a 4ft WNW swell with a 10-second period, and the wind goes cross-off from the NNE at 12 mph. The energy is 281 (moderate) and the wave comment says clean. That’s the second standout in the first week. The swell is a bit longer period, so expect some decent shape, but it’s still small. Crowds are "sometimes" here, so you might have a few others around, but it won’t be packed.

From Sunday, July 12th, through to Friday, July 17th, the surf drops off hard. Swell heights dip to 1ft to 2ft, and while the winds are often clean or cross-off, the energy is weak (38 to 114). The 12-second period on Monday, July 13th, is a tease – it’s a long-period groundswell, but with only 1ft, it’s barely a ripple. These are just ordinary, small, clean days, not worth a session unless you’re desperate.

The second week brings a bit of a pulse, but it’s rough. On Saturday, July 18th, a 6ft NW swell rolls in, but the period is a short 7 seconds, and the wind is onshore or cross-on, with a fresh breeze and lumpy conditions. The energy is 352 (strong), but it’s messy, choppy, and too big for beginners. The swell jumps to 7ft in the afternoon, but with a 22 mph cross-on wind, it’s only for experts and even then, it’s a struggle. Sunday, July 19th, is similar, with a 6ft NW swell but still cross-on and choppy. The combined energy on July 20th and 21st hits 430 and 477 (strong to very strong), but with 6ft WNW swell, 6-8 second periods, and fresh cross-shore winds, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The waves will be bumpy, unruly, and not worth the paddle.

Best on offer: Wednesday morning, July 8th, for the glassy clean conditions, and Saturday morning, July 11th, for the clean cross-off wind and a little more energy. After that, it’s a long, dry run until the second week, but that’s nothing worth getting excited about.

Rusty.

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