Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the table for Brandon Bay over the next couple of weeks.

Well, I gotta be straight with you – it's a bit of a grim stretch ahead. The first few days are honestly a write-off. We're looking at a long, frustrating gap where the conditions just aren't coming together. From Thursday the 6th right through the weekend and into early the following week, it's a whole lot of cross-on breezes, messy chop, and just poor surf quality. You’d be better off doing something else.

The first real glimmer of something surfable doesn't show up until Monday the 10th. The morning session at Dumps is looking like our best bet for a while. The wind goes glassy, which is a huge plus, and we've got a small 4ft swell rolling in from the west. The energy is weak though, only about 220 (moderate wave energy), and the period is a short 8 seconds, so it won't have much punch. It's not going to be epic, but it'll be clean. The water temp is sitting at 63°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

We get a few more mornings with clean conditions and cross-off winds on the 11th, 12th, and 13th, but the swell is tiny, dropping to 2ft with periods of 8 to 9 seconds. The energy is weak, all under 170 (weak wave energy). It's really just ankle to knee-high stuff for the patient soul.

Then we hit another wall of poor conditions from the 14th through the 16th, with onshore and cross-shore winds ruining the shape.

Now, looking way out, there's a big spike in the data for Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th. We're seeing a solid 7ft swell from the northwest on the 17th morning, with a massive combined energy of 628 (strong wave energy). But here's the kicker – the wind is howling onshore from the west at 22 mph, which is a fresh breeze. That's going to blow it out completely. It’s the kind of day where the ocean looks angry and more interesting for kite surfing than paddling.

The real standout of the entire 16-day window, and the only one worth circling, is the morning of Wednesday the 19th. We've got a 8ft swell from the WNW with a period of 11 seconds, and the energy is through the roof at 1628 (very strong wave energy). That's a serious groundswell. The wind is onshore from the WSW at 16 mph though, which is a major bummer. This is a big, powerful swell that will be too big for beginners and is only for experienced surfers. It's a long-range promise, so don't bank on it being perfect, but keep an eye on it. The swell direction from the WNW is right on the money for the optimum direction for Dumps, but the wind will be the enemy.

Stick with it, folks. The second week looks more promising than this first week of nothing.
Rusty.

Read more