Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Dumps.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the next week and a half is looking pretty grim. There’s a big gap of nothing worth paddling out for from now until the 14th of July. The water temp is sitting at 61°F which is about average for this time of year, so no shocks there, but the waves are just not playing ball.

The first chance of anything surfable won’t come until Tuesday, 14 July. Even then, it’s small and weak. Tuesday morning has a tiny 2ft wave from the west with a clean offshore wind from the east, but the energy is low (77). The wave period is a short 10 seconds, so you’re looking at weak, soft little lumps. It’s surfable, just barely, but nothing to get excited about. Tuesday afternoon is much the same, with a cross-off breeze keeping it clean, but still only 2ft and energy dropping to 60.

Wednesday the 15th is even worse – 1ft in the morning, and by the afternoon it goes glassy but tiny at 1.0ft. Thursday the 16th is flat and glassy too, but you’d be scratching for a ripple.

Now, we start to see a little more life later in the run. Sunday, 19 July morning brings a pulse of 5ft from the NNW, but the period is a short 7 seconds, so it’ll be a bit bumpy and messy. The energy jumps to 286, which is moderate, and the wind is clean cross-off from the NE. It’s a marginal call, but if you’re desperate, that’s your best window before the next lull.

The real standout, and the one you want to circle on the calendar, is Thursday, 23 July. That morning, Dumps is looking clean and glassy with a 5ft swell from the WNW. The wind is a dead calm glass-off from the NE. That’s about as good as it gets for conditions. The period is 8 seconds, so it’s a shorter swell, but with that kind of clean face, it’ll be fun for the intermediate crew. The energy is moderate (284). It’s not huge, but it’s the best combination of size and wind we’ve seen.

Now, a word of warning. The 24th of July sees a massive spike: 15ft from the west with a 12-second period and energy readings over 6000. That’s a serious, powerful groundswell. But the finder says it’s too big for this break. That’s big wave territory, and only for the experts if they’re even considering it. The wind is offshore from the SE, so it’d be clean, but the size is just too much for a fun day out at Dumps.

The 25th of July morning drops back to 8ft, still a solid size, with energy at 1252, but the wind swings cross-off from the SSE. It’s marginal, and the afternoon gets choppy with a cross-onshore wind.

So, the pick of the whole 16-day window is Thursday morning, 23 July. It’s not a monster, but it’s clean, glassy, and the most user-friendly wave on offer. For the rest of it, you’re mostly waiting. Don’t hold your breath for the first week.

Rusty.

Read more