Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the menu.

Right now, the surf story for the next 16 days is a pretty bleak one. We’ve got size, we’ve got energy, but the wind is just a relentless enemy here at Dumps (Brandon Bay). There’s no clean session in sight for the first week, and the second week doesn’t offer much hope either. It’s a long, dusty stretch.

Looking at the whole run, the only periods that even get a marginal nod are a few sessions around the 11th and 13th of September. Friday the 11th afternoon sees a drop in the wind with a light breeze and a small 4ft NW swell, period around 8 seconds. The combined energy is weak, only 310, so it’s not going to be punchy, but the lighter wind might make it just about rideable on a log. That’s the closest thing to a standout, but it’s hardly a celebration.

Then on Sunday the 13th afternoon, we see a window with a slight air, almost glassy, and a 5ft NW swell with 676 of combined energy. The period is 10 seconds, so it’s not terrible, and the wind being light cross-onshore from the SSW is the best we’re going to get. This is your best bet for a cleanish wave, but it’s only a 2 out of 10 in the grand scheme. It’s a sad highlight.

Everything else is just a mess. Monday the 7th has rain showers and 16 mph cross-on winds with 8ft of W swell. The energy is high at 1107, but the conditions are poor. The wind stays strong and onshore or cross-onshore for days on end, ripping the faces off anything that stands up. Tuesday the 8th is a write-off with fresh 22 mph NW cross-onshore winds and massive 10ft swell—that’s 2013 of energy in the afternoon, but it’s just a washing machine. That’s expert-only territory, and even then, it’s ugly.

Midweek, the 9th and 10th, the swell drops but the wind stays messy. We see a brief couple of days with smaller 4ft to 5ft swell, but the cross-shore and cross-on winds keep the surface chopped up. Thursday the 10th has a fresh 19 mph SSW wind creating lumpy cross-chop. No good.

The weekend of the 12th and 13th brings a new pulse. Saturday the 12th has a solid 8ft WNW groundswell with a very long 13-second period, and the energy is through the roof at 2359. That’s proper power. But it’s ruined by a fresh 19 mph S cross-shore wind. That kind of long period groundswell needs a point or a reef to shine, not a beach break with a side wind. It’s a total shame. Sunday the 13th afternoon is still your best, as I mentioned.

After that, the second week is just more of the same misery. Monday the 14th has a tiny 3ft swell, then back to windy 8ft stuff. Tuesday the 15th has a strong breeze of 25 mph onshore with 8ft and 1900 of energy—pure chaos. The 19th and 20th see another big pulse of NW groundswell with 13-second periods and energy over 2300, but once again the wind howls onshore from the SW and W. That setup is more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, I’ll tell you that.

Water temp is sitting at 62°, which is about 2° warmer than average for this time of year. That’s a bit notable, a little warmer than you’d expect for September.

Honestly, for the next two weeks, there’s nothing that gets the heart racing. You’d be better off checking the wind obs every morning and hoping for a fluke glass-off. Long-range lookers around the 19th and 20th have size and period, but the wind forecast is consistently bad. Promising, but far from certain. Don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

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