Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up at Dumps (Brandon Bay). I’ve got to be straight with you – the next 16 days are a bit of a mixed bag, and the opening stretch is pretty grim. We’ve got a lot of waiting to do before anything really gets going.

We kick off on Sunday the 19th with barely a ripple. Just 3ft of short-period, weak NNW swell, and the water is a very unusual 64°F – that’s much warmer than normal for this time of year. The wind is a cross-off in the morning, but the wave comment says it all: poor surf conditions. We’re stuck in this rut for days. Monday through to Thursday morning (20th to 23rd) are all tiny, with swell heights under 2ft and combined energy rarely cracking 100 – that’s low energy stuff. The wind stays mostly cross-off or cross, but there’s just no power. Expect a long, quiet gap with no real surf to speak of.

Friday the 24th finally shows a little flicker of life. The morning brings a 2ft NW swell, with a period of 10 seconds and combined energy hitting 104 (moderate). The clean morning conditions with a light cross-off breeze make it surfable, but it’s very ordinary. The afternoon bumps up to 3ft with a bit more energy (149), but the wind shifts cross-shore and it gets a slight chop. It’s not a standout, just a minor window to get wet.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting, but messy. Saturday the 25th sees a proper jump in size – 6ft from the NW in the morning, with a 11-second period. The combined energy rockets up to 789 (strong wave energy). But the wind is onshore and light, and the forecast is marginal. The swell is going to be a bit too big for beginners, and the quality is questionable. By Sunday the 26th, we’re looking at 7ft to 7ft from the WNW, but the wind is a fresh cross-onshore, making it choppy and lumpy. Despite the size, the conditions are poor.

The real standout period, if you can call it that, is around Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th. Monday morning pumps out an 8ft WNW swell with a 9-second period and a massive combined energy of 1093 (very strong). That’s a lot of water moving. But here’s the rub – the wind is a fresh cross-onshore, making it lumpy and poor. This is expert-only territory, and even then, it’s going to be a battle. The wind is just ruining the quality. Tuesday the 28th drops slightly to 7ft from the NW with an 11-second period, and the energy is still strong at 1031. The wind is a gentler cross-onshore, but it’s still a chop magnet. This is the best of a bad bunch, but don’t expect perfection.

After that, it trails off. From the 29th of July through to the 3rd of August, the swell fades and the wind stays mostly onshore or cross-onshore, keeping everything messy and poor. The 3rd of August brings a weak 4ft W swell, but again, onshore wind and poor conditions.

So, the honest truth? The best bet is probably Tuesday the 28th. It’s the biggest, most powerful swell of the window, with strong energy, but it’s only for experienced surfers who don’t mind a bit of chop. The wind is never truly glassy or offshore for the big swells, so the quality is never going to be epic. If you’re desperate, Friday the 24th morning offers the cleanest, smallest window for a beginner-friendly paddle.

That’s the long and short of it. Keep an eye on the sky, but don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

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