Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, folks. Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer for Dumps over the next couple of weeks.

Straight up, the outlook for Dumps is a long, quiet struggle. We’re looking at a solid stretch of poor conditions with hardly a wave worth paddling for. The first surfable day doesn’t show up until Sunday the 2nd of August, and even then it’s very ordinary. Before that, it’s all cross-onshore winds and choppy, weak waves. Tuesday the 28th of July, for instance, has a 5ft W swell but with a 16 mph cross-on wind, it’s just a mess. The water temp is sitting at 63°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

After that, the pattern is much the same: small, short-period swell (7-8 seconds), and frustrating cross-onshore breezes. The combined energy stays low, mostly in the 100-200 range (weak to moderate), meaning there’s just no push behind it. Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st are a write-off. Saturday the 1st of August sees the swell drop to 3ft with a 7-second period and energy below 111 – barely a ripple.

The only glimmer of hope comes early on Sunday the 2nd of August. The wind goes glassy, with a light rain shower, and the swell is a tiny 3ft from the NNW at 8 seconds. The energy is 148 (weak). It’s surfable, but you’d be scraping for knee-high slop. The afternoon cleans up a bit with a cross-off breeze, but it’s still small. Monday the 3rd of August has clean offshore winds and a 2ft swell – that’s about as fun as a flat tyre.

The best of a bad bunch? I’d highlight the early morning of Sunday the 2nd of August for the glassy conditions. The swell is small, but the wind is perfect, so it’ll be clean if you’re desperate for a paddle. After that, daylight hours on Tuesday the 4th and Wednesday the 5th of August offer clean offshore winds, but the swell is tiny (2ft to 3ft) and the period is short (7 seconds). It’s not going to be memorable.

Later in the second week, around Saturday the 8th of August, the swell picks up a bit. The morning shows a 4ft WNW swell with a 9-second period and energy of 246 (moderate), with a light cross-off wind. That’s the most promising window in the whole outlook, but it’s still a long way out and the afternoon gets chopped up by a cross-wind. Sunday the 9th and beyond see the wind turning onshore again, killing any hope.

Honestly, for a spot that’s fairly consistent, this is a grim run. If you’re a kite surfer, the stronger onshore days might look interesting, but for paddle surfing, it’s a waiting game. Forecasts can change, but right now, there’s nothing to get excited about.

Rusty.

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