Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the menu for Brandon Bay over the next couple of weeks.

It’s a bit of a slow start, I won’t lie. The first ten days or so are looking pretty flat and uninspiring. We’ve got tiny little waves, nothing above 2ft, with weak combined swell energy (77) at best. The wind is mostly light and cross-off to cross, which would normally be alright, but there’s just no swell to work with. It’s the kind of stretch where you’d be better off checking the wind forecast for a kite session than paddling out. The wave coach isn't going to be busy.

We’ve got a solid gap here with no real surf to recommend until we get into late July. Things finally start to show some life on the morning of Friday the 24th. That’s when a proper swell starts to build. Now, this is the one to watch.

Dumps (Brandon Bay) is the only break in the game, and it’s a fairly exposed spot, so it’ll catch what’s coming. The standout is Saturday the 25th of July. The morning is looking prime. We’re talking a solid 7ft swell from the WNW, with a period of 11 seconds pushing moderate to strong energy (974). But the real kicker? The wind is glassy. Dead calm. That’s a rare treat and will make the place look like a mirror. The swell direction is a match for the optimum NW, so expect some nice, lined-up waves. It’s going to be a day for the intermediate crew, but at 7ft, it’s getting a bit too much for beginners. Keep in mind that with a longer period swell like this, it can break a bit straight at a beach, but Dumps handles it well enough.

The Friday before that, the 24th, is also worth a mention with 7ft to 8ft swell from the NW and a long 13-second period, giving us very strong energy (1745). The wind is light cross-shore, so it’ll be a bit bumpy but still a proper session for the experienced crew. Over 8ft, it’s expert territory.

After that peak, it gets a bit messy. Sunday the 26th gets blown out by strong onshore winds, and Monday the 27th sees the swell get big and unruly, over 10ft, with strong onshore winds making it a washing machine. The following days drop off quick in size, but the wind stays nasty.

So, to wrap it up: there’s a long, flat spell, then a clear highlight on the 25th of July with glassy conditions and a solid groundswell. That’s your window. The rest of the second week is either too big, too windy, or too small. Get on that Saturday morning if you can.

Rusty.

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