Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the table for the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, mate, it’s a tough stretch ahead. We’re looking at a long, dry spell with very little to get excited about. The surf is pretty much flat or tiny for the vast majority of the 16-day window, and the wind is mostly a mess. There’s a real gap here – from the start of the forecast right through to the end of the first week, there’s nothing worth paddling out for. The only glimmer of something rideable doesn’t show up until Sunday the 2nd of August, and even then, it’s barely worth a mention.

Let’s break it down. The first real, albeit very ordinary, window comes on Sunday the 2nd of August. The swell at Dumps (Brandon Bay) is a pathetic 3 ft from the NW with a period of just 8 seconds. The combined wave energy is in the ‘moderate’ range at 140. The water temperature is 62°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. The kicker here is the wind: Sunday morning is glassy. That’s a rare treat in this outlook. The afternoon turns clean with a light cross-offshore breeze. The waves are small, weak, and the whole setup is a classic beginner-to-intermediate zone. With the swell being so small, even beginners will be fine. The crowds are listed as ‘sometimes’, so you might have a few others with the same idea, but it won’t be a circus.

After that brief tease, it all goes to absolute rubbish again. Monday the 3rd drops to 2 ft, and by Tuesday the 4th of August it’s down to 2 ft and dropping. The wind turns nasty, the swell fades, and the energy numbers drop into double digits. From Tuesday the 4th right through to Friday the 7th, the swell is barely 1 ft. That’s not surf, that’s a lake. The wind is a constant cross or cross-on mess, and it’s just not worth looking at.

There’s a tiny flicker of life on Saturday the 8th of August – the swell bumps back up to a tiny 2 ft from the NW, period at 8 seconds, and the combined energy is a weak 71. The morning is clean with a light cross-offshore breeze, so it’s glassy and rideable, but again, only for the patient. The break is fairly consistent, so there’s a wave, but it’s a long paddle for a knee-high bump.

The final week sees a bit more size, but it’s all blown out. Sunday the 9th of August pushes 3 ft from the NW with a period of 9 seconds, but the wind is a stiff cross-on at 16 mph. The energy is moderate at 184, but it’s a choppy, lumpy mess. That pattern holds through to the end of the forecast: a bit of height, but the wind is a constant cross-on or onshore, ruining any chance of quality. The swell direction is from the NW, which is the optimum for Dumps, so it’s hitting the right angle, but it’s just not clean.

So, what’s the standout? Honestly, there isn’t a real standout. The only window that’s even close to being worth a look is the Sunday the 2nd of August morning session. The glassy conditions are your best bet for a clean, if small, wave. The Saturday the 8th of August morning is a distant second. It’s a grim run, but forecasts can change. It tends not to stay this poor for long.

Rusty.

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