Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into the outlook for Dumps at Brandon Bay.

We’re in for a bit of a frustrating stretch, to be honest. The water temp is feeling pretty standard for this time of year, nothing weird going on there. The main issue for most of this 16-day window is the wind. It just won’t get out of our face. We’ve got a lot of lumpy, choppy conditions locking up the potential of some decent sized swells.

The first real chance of anything decent doesn't come until the morning of Sunday, the 13th. That morning is the standout of the entire first week. We get a clean, 5ft swell out of the NW with a solid 11-second period, which gives it some good energy. The wind is light and cross-offshore, which is just what Dumps needs. It’s going to be clean and well-shaped. This is your window if you can only get out once.

After that, things go quickly downhill. Through the middle of the week we are battered by fresh winds and messy surf. We’re looking at a long gap here, days of no recommendations.

Now, if you’re an experienced surfer, or just want to look at some heavy water, the second week gets interesting. The morning of Saturday the 19th shows a small glimmer of manageable conditions with a light onshore and a 6ft swell, but the real event is brewing.

The big promise is on Sunday, the 20th of September. We have a massive 13ft groundswell from the WNW rolling in with a very long 14-second period and huge energy. The morning has a light cross-onshore breeze, which keeps the ripples small. This is big, powerful, and sets will be widely spaced, making the paddle out easy for those who know what they’re doing. But if you are not an expert, this is too big. The shape at Dumps should handle this well.

The pattern holds into the following morning of Monday, the 22nd, with another 8ft swell, but the wind is already getting messy again.

For a final highlight, look at the morning of Wednesday, the 24th. Another pumping 13ft swell from the WNW, with a 14-second period and even more energy. Same story: experts only, and you are battling a moderate cross-onshore breeze. The long-range stuff is promising but less certain.

So to wrap it up, for most folks, Sunday the 13th is the cleanest, most fun day on offer. For the big-wave crew, the mornings of Sunday the 20th and Wednesday the 24th are your target, but watch the wind reports as we get closer because it could get messy.

Stay safe out there.

Rusty.

Read more