Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s happening at the Dumps in Brandon Bay. We’ve only got one spot to look at, so this is the whole story.

There’s some swell coming, but the first week and a half is mostly a struggle with a lot of wind and ugly conditions. We’ve got a big gap of poor surf before a couple of clean windows open up.

Starting now, Thursday the 20th afternoon, it’s a mess. There’s a 6ft swell from the NNW, but a fresh 35 km/h cross-wind is tearing it up, making lumpy, choppy waves. The wave energy is moderate (904). Friday the 21st is similar, with 5ft and 4ft swells, but still cross-shore winds and poor conditions. Saturday morning the 22nd drops to a tiny 1ft with almost no energy (53), and while it’s clean, there’s nothing to ride.

We’ve got a four-day stretch of nearly nothing until things pick up. Sunday the 23rd is flat with 0.7ft waves. Don’t bother.

Now, Monday the 24th morning is the real standout. We’ve got a solid 4ft groundswell from the NW with a period of 11 seconds. Glassy conditions and a light offshore breeze from the ESE. The wave energy is a solid moderate (405). The water temp is 64°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. Dumps is a fairly exposed spot, so this is a proper window. The crowd situation is “sometimes,” so you might see a few others, but it’s worth it.

Monday afternoon stays clean with a 4ft WNW swell, but the wind shifts to a cross-offshore, so it’s still surfable, just not as perfect.

Tuesday the 25th is smaller, with 3ft and 2ft, but winds are offshore, so you’ll get clean, rideable waves for a more mellow session. Wednesday morning the 26th is another good call: 4ft from the west, 10-second period, with a slight air and clean conditions. Energy is moderate (272). That’s a solid morning.

After that, from Wednesday afternoon the 26th through the end of the month, it’s back to cross-onshore and onshore winds, with chop and generally poor conditions. Friday the 28th morning has a glassy moment with 4ft, but the rating is still ordinary. Then Friday afternoon sees a jump to 8ft from the WNW, but a moderate cross-onshore wind makes it choppy and messy.

Saturday the 29th is a big one, but it’s a washout for paddle surfing. You’ve got a 10ft west-northwest swell (energy 1331), but it’s blowing 20 km/h onshore, making it a heavy, blown-out mess. That size and wind is more for the kite surfers. It’s 8ft in the afternoon, still onshore.

Sunday the 30th sees a drop back to 4ft with a clean offshore wind, so it’s surfable again, but the energy is weaker (212). Monday the 31st is a no-go with strong winds again.

The first week of September is a bit of a lottery. Thursday the 3rd has a 7ft west swell, but it’s cross-onshore again. Friday the 4th has an 8ft swell from the WNW with a very long 12-second period and massive energy (2229), but it’s onshore wind. That’s a lot of power, but it won’t be clean. It’s one to watch as a promising but uncertain long-range prospect.

So, the best of the lot? Nail it on Monday the 24th morning. That’s your pick. Glassy, 4ft NW groundswell, and clean. After that, Wednesday the 26th morning is a solid backup.

Rusty.

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