Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’re looking at a bit of a flat spell for the next 16 days, truth be told. The surf is just not cooperating, and there’s a lot of waiting around. The first real chance to even get a wet suit on isn’t until Tuesday, July 7th, and even then, it’s nothing to write home about. We’ll have a couple of small windows with clean conditions, but the swell is weak and the energy is low.

The only spot on the menu is Dumps (Brandon Bay). It’s a fairly exposed spot, and the swell is mostly coming from the west, which is close to the optimum northwest direction. The water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing wild there.

The whole first week is a write-off. Sunday and Monday, July 5th and 6th, are a total bust with poor, choppy surf and a gentle cross-onshore breeze. The swell is around 3 ft to 5 ft, but the period is short, under 8 seconds, and the combined energy is weak. It’s just messy.

Then, Tuesday, July 7th, we get a tiny glimmer. The morning is glassy, with a 3 ft swell from the west and a 9-second period. The wave energy is still weak. Waist-high, clean, but very ordinary. That’s the best we get for a while. Wednesday and Thursday mornings, July 8th and 9th, are similar – glassy conditions with 4 ft to 4 ft swell from the west-northwest, but the energy stays low. It’s rideable, but you’ll be scratching for waves.

We then hit another lull from Friday, July 10th, through to the end of the second week. The swell drops below 3 ft, the wind turns cross-shore or onshore, and the conditions are poor. The combined energy dips into the double digits on some days. There’s a brief moment on Monday, July 13th, with a clean offshore wind (east, 6 mph) and a 3 ft west swell, but it’s still just a knee-high, ordinary wave. The rest of the week is a mix of clean cross-offshore winds but with hardly any swell to push them.

The real standout, if you can call it that, is the morning of Tuesday, July 7th. It’s the only time the wind is truly glassy, and the swell is high enough to get a few rides. At Dumps, you’ll find a 3 ft west swell with a 9-second period, clean as a whistle. But it’s weak. For the rest of the month, the forecast is a drought. If you’re a beginner, the swell never gets above 5 ft, so that’s fine, but there’s nothing to learn on. The longer period swell (18th July) is 12 seconds from the northwest, but it’s cross-onshore and messy.

Honestly, unless you’re desperate for a paddle, this is a good time to check the wax and fix a ding. The forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a long, quiet run.

Rusty.

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