Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here again. Let's break down what’s happening at Dumps (Brandon Bay) over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, the start of the run is a total bummer. Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th are a complete mess. There's wave height, sure, but the wind is howling, it's cross-chop, and the ocean looks like a washing machine. Not worth a look. Wednesday the 16th through Saturday the 19th are a mixed bag – some small windows of hope, but mostly onshore winds and just marginal conditions. The swell is there but it's not lining up. Saturday afternoon the size drops right off and it’s all a bit forgettable.

But man, hang on. Sunday the 20th morning fires up. We’re looking at a clean, powerful 13ft WNW groundswell with a light offshore breeze from the ESE. The energy reading is huge at 5804. This is a beast of a wave. That long 14-second period means it's a proper groundswell with long waits between sets, but when they come, they are big. This is strictly for experienced surfers only – 13 feet plus is no joke. The long period will make it wall up at certain spots, but Dumps usually handles it well.

It gets a bit naughty again for the rest of Sunday and all of Monday the 21st, with cross-onshore winds making a mess of things.

Then, Tuesday the 22nd is a killer. The morning session has 12ft of solid WNW swell and a light offshore wind from the ENE (2864). But the afternoon... oh boy. The wind drops to nothing. Glassy. Dead calm from the east. And the swell is still pumping at 13ft (3695). That is an absolutely unreal window for the crew with the right experience. You want clean, big, powerful waves? That's your slot.

The week stays interesting. Wednesday the 23rd has a nice clean 6ft swell in the afternoon with glassy winds – fun for a smaller board. Thursday the 24th morning is a gem: 8ft of swell with a massive 16-second period and a clean cross-offshore breeze (3554). This is a long-range groundswell that will be pure perfection for a point or reef setup like Dumps. Friday the 25th is a bit smaller but still clean and surfable with a 7ft cross-off swell.

Saturday the 26th is a dud with weak, short-period junk.

And then, one more gift. Sunday the 27th morning is glassy and perfect, with 12ft of clean, smooth WNW groundswell and no wind. Energy is 2394. Again, that's an expert-only wave, but if you're ready for it, it's a moment of pure stoke. The wind turns onshore in the afternoon and takes the shine off.

After that, Monday the 28th and Tuesday the 29th just fade away. The swell dies, the wind picks up, and it’s time to go home.

The pick of the lot? For raw, big-wave perfection in clean conditions, it’s a toss-up between Sunday the 20th morning and Tuesday the 22nd afternoon. If you can only do one, Tuesday afternoon with that glassy lip and clean power is the stuff of legends. Don’t sleep on Thursday the 24th morning either if you want that ultra-long-period groundswell.

Rusty

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