Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s comin’ down the line for Dumps in Brandon Bay.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a bit of a slow start. The first few days we’re looking at small, short-period swell rollin’ in, but the winds are just not playing nice. The surf is there, but it’s messy, with a lot of cross-shore and cross-onshore wind makin’ things choppy and bumpy. It ain’t pretty, and the wave energy is weak, sittin’ around 77 to 93 (combined energy). The water is a full 2° warmer than usual for this time of year, which is notable—you’ll feel it when you paddle out, that’s for sure.

Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th are write-offs for clean waves. Monday the 20th, the mornin’ has a little 2ft swell from the west with a longer period of 11 seconds, which is a groundswell, and the wind is a gentle cross-offshore breeze. That’s a brief window of clean-ish conditions, but the waves are tiny. Tuesday the 21st mornin’ is similar—small, clean, but barely worth paddlin’ out for.

The rest of that week into the next is a real bummer. The swell gets a bit bigger, but the wind is relentless from the west and southwest, blowin’ straight onshore or cross-onshore. By Saturday the 25th, we’re seein’ 7ft to 8ft of messy, lumpy, onshore junk. That’s too big for beginners and with that wind, it’s just a washing machine. Honestly, from the 24th afternoon through the 29th, the setup is more interestin’ for kite surfin’ than paddle surfin’—strong winds, big chop, and poor quality.

Now, hold on to your board, because things start to look up right at the end of the month. On Thursday the 30th of July, the swell is a solid 8ft from the WNW with a period of 10 seconds, and the wave energy is strong at 1412 (combined energy). That’s a big, powerful wave. But the wind is still cross-onshore in the mornin’, so it’s not perfect. The real standout is Friday the 31st of July mornin’. We’ve got a 8ft WNW swell, period of 10 seconds, and a light cross-offshore breeze from the northeast. The conditions are clean. That’s the one to circle on the calendar. The wave energy is pumpin’ at 1170 (combined energy), but with that swell size, it’s strictly for experienced surfers—over 8ft is expert territory, and this is right on the edge. Dumps is a fairly exposed spot, and with that size, it’ll be powerful. The optimum direction is NW, and this is comin’ from the WNW, so it’s a good match.

Saturday the 1st of August mornin’ is also a decent option—6ft from the WNW, period 9 seconds, gentle cross-offshore breeze, and clean conditions. The energy is moderate at 535 (combined energy). That’s a solid intermediate wave, but not the standout.

After that, Sunday the 2nd drops off quickly back to small, ordinary surf.

The long-range call for Friday the 31st is promising, but keep in mind it’s a week and a half out—things can shift. The earlier part of the window is a write-off, so you’re lookin’ at a solid 10-day gap from the 20th to the 30th where the surf is either too small or too blown out. That’s a long stretch of nothin’ to write home about.

Rusty.

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