Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surfers, Rusty here with the full 16-day picture for the Dumps (Brandon Bay). Let's be straight with you – it's a tough stretch ahead. The water temp is sitting at 64°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least you won't be freezing your toes off.

The pattern is pretty grim for the next week and a half. We've got a persistent run of poor surf conditions from the start right through to the 11th of September. The wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and the swell is being generated by a moderate combined energy (often in the hundreds, like 549) but it's just not lining up with clean conditions. The Dumps is a fairly consistent spot that's fairly exposed to the swell, but unfortunately, the wind is ruining the party.

Monday the 31st through Thursday the 5th of September is all messy: cloudy, rainy, and choppy. The swell sits around 3 ft to 7 ft with a short period of 7 to 9 seconds, so it's weak and disorganized. The combined energy rarely gets above moderate (mostly in the 100-700 range), and the wind is a constant problem. On Friday the 4th of September, we see a big spike – a 16 ft WNW swell with a 13-second period, and the combined energy jumps to 8087, which is very strong. But the wind is howling 25 mph onshore, making it a total mess. That's not for paddling; that's a kite-surfing special if you're into that.

Saturday the 5th of September morning shows a glimmer with a 8 ft WNW swell and a 10-second period, combined energy at 1333. The wind is light and onshore, and the forecast says "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions." It's not good, but it's the best we've seen in a week. After that, it's back to poor conditions through the 11th.

We hit a real gap from the 12th of September onward. Saturday the 12th of September morning has tiny 1 ft waves with a clean cross-offshore wind – the first clean wind we've seen! But the swell is just too small to get excited about, with combined energy a weak 129. The Dumps is inconsistent by nature, and this is a classic flat spell.

Sunday the 13th of September sees a modest 6 ft WSW swell, but the wind is cross-onshore and light, so it's still marginal.

The standout – and it's a long-range one – is Monday the 14th of September. We've got a solid 12 ft swell from the west with a long 14-second period, and the combined energy is a strong 4410. The wind is a light cross-onshore, which is the best we'll see for a big swell. This is a groundswell with some real punch, and the Dumps is a beach break, so that long period will make it a bit walled-off, but for the experienced crew, there will be some heavy, clean waves. Crowds are possible at this spot. This is the only real highlight in the whole 16 days. Tuesday the 15th of September is also big (13 ft, 12 seconds) but the wind is onshore and fresh, so it's not as good.

Overall, it's a lean month. The Dumps is fairly consistent, so it won't stay this poor forever, but for the next 16 days, you're looking at Monday the 14th as your best bet. Keep your eyes on that one.

Rusty.

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