Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for Dumps (Brandon Bay).

The next 16 days are a real mixed bag, and if I’m honest, there’s a lot of waiting around for something worthwhile. The surf window kicks off on Friday the 24th of July, but it’s not a pretty picture. We’ve got a light cross-onshore breeze and a weak, short-period swell from the northwest at 3 ft. The water is sitting at 63°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s about the only positive. The combined energy is weak (134), and the conditions are described as poor. Friday afternoon and Saturday are worse, with onshore winds ruining the shape. Saturday afternoon sees a jump in swell height to 8 ft from the NW, and the energy is strong (1169), but the onshore wind is going to make it a messy, blown-out mess. Not for the faint of heart, and definitely not for beginners.

Sunday the 26th and Monday the 27th see solid swell, with heights around 8 ft to 10 ft from the WNW, but the cross-onshore winds are relentless, keeping things choppy and poor. The energy is very strong (1478 on Sunday morning), but it’s a waste. This is the kind of setup that looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, honestly.

There’s a gap of poor conditions right through until the morning of Wednesday the 29th of July. That morning, the wind finally goes glassy right at Dumps. The swell has dropped to 4 ft from the west, but the energy is low (191). Still, it’s surfable, and glassy conditions are a major positive for clean lines. The period is short at 8 seconds, so it won’t have much push, but it’s the best we’ve seen. The crowds at Dumps can sometimes be a factor, so keep that in mind.

The next sniff of a decent wave comes on the morning of Tuesday the 4th of August. We’ve got a clean, cross-offshore breeze, and a long-period groundswell from the west at 13 seconds, but the swell height is only 2 ft. The energy is moderate (183). This is a long-period swell, so it’ll be better formed at the point and reef areas, and the clean conditions will be appealing. But it’s tiny.

The real standout, if you’re patient, is the morning of Saturday the 8th of August. This is a long-range call, so less certain, but promising. We’ve got a light cross-shore breeze, a 3 ft swell from the west with a long 11-second period, and the combined energy is a solid moderate (259). The wind is light, the conditions look clean, and a long-period west swell is a good match for Dumps. This is the one to watch, but we’re talking about a week and a half out, so don’t book the time off just yet.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a write-off for clean, quality surf. Wednesday the 29th of July offers a glassy window but small waves. The best bet on offer is the morning of Saturday the 8th of August, with a long-period groundswell and clean conditions. Nothing else in the whole 16 days really stands out. A blank run like this is more normal for the area, but it tends not to stay poor for long, and forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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