Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The conditions are going to be a full-on grind for a while, and honesty is the best policy here.

Look, for the next week and a bit it’s mostly grim. The water’s a bit warmer than usual for the time of year at about 64°, but it’s going to be hard to enjoy it. Wednesday the 26th is flat and poor, with a tiny 2ft westerly swell and onshore wind at Dumps (Brandon Bay). It’s not really breaking. That pretty much sets the tone for days and days. There are tiny swells and messy winds day after day, with the combined energy barely getting into three digits until Thursday the 27th when it climbs, but the wave call is “very ordinary”. It gets worse from there.

Around Monday the 31st of August, the swell tries to kick up to about 6ft, but it’s cross-onshore and lumpy, and the energy reads high, which sounds meaty but it’s got no quality. That trend sticks for a few days with onshore wind and poor surf conditions. Even on Thursday the 3rd of September, when there’s a 5ft swell from the west, the wind is howling at 22 mph from the south-southwest. It’s a mess. You’d be better off with a kite than a paddle those days.

Now, there is one shining moment buried in there. Saturday the 5th of September is the clear standout. The morning brings a 5ft west swell, period 10 seconds, and the wind is light from the south-southeast, making it cross-offshore. That means clean waves. The combined swell energy is strong. The conditions are described as “good surf conditions”. The afternoon stays clean with a 5ft swell, still cross-offshore. That’s your window. Dumps handles a west-northwest swell well, and this westerly direction is right in its optimum zone. It’s fairly consistent and fairly exposed, so those waves should hold shape. You can expect some company though, because it does get crowded sometimes.

After that little burst, it falls apart again into the second week. By the 7th of September, the swell is tiny and the wind is bad. The 9th and 10th of September offer clean conditions but with junk swells that have a short period of 6 or 7 seconds and very low energy. Not worth the paddle.

So, don’t even bother looking before that Saturday. It’s a long gap of rubbish from now until then. The only day that truly matters is the 5th of September. Get on it. After that, the forecast looks sketchy again, but you know how it goes around here – it tends not to stay poor forever.

Rusty.

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