Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

There’s a dry spell at the start—nothing worth wetting a wetsuit for until the weekend. Wednesday and Thursday are all cross-onshore chop with weak, short-period lumps that’ll have you fighting the wind more than riding anything. Friday morning cleans up a touch but the swell drops out to barely a knee-high ripple. Don’t bother.

Then Saturday the 12th turns on the power—but it’s a messy, raw 12ft of WNW groundswell with a 12-second period and moderate cross-onshore wind. That’s a washing machine at Dumps (Brandon Bay), more likely to snap your board than give you a wave. Too big for beginners, and even for the intermediates it’s going to be a frothing, blown-out mess. Combined swell energy is strong at 3069, but the wind ruins it. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Sunday the 13th is where it starts to come together. A cleaner 5ft of NW swell, 11-second period, light cross-offshore breeze—that’s proper. Combined energy is moderate at 706, and the faces will be smooth. Dumps is fairly consistent and fairly exposed, so it should be picking up most of that west-northwest juice. Crowds are possible on a Sunday, but it’s worth it. This is your first real standout of the outlook.

Monday and Tuesday dip back into marginal territory—small cross-shore bumps, nothing exciting. But then Wednesday the 16th throws another big one at you: 12ft of WNW at 10 seconds, clean cross-offshore wind in the morning. That’s a heavy, powerful wave—over 8ft so experts only. Energy is strong at 2033, but the period is a bit short, so it’s going to be lumpy and walled-up at a beach break like this. Still, clean faces and a lot of push—if you’ve got the skills, it’s got the grunt.

Thursday the 17th is a write-off with rain and onshore wind. Friday the 18th is interesting though—10ft of WNW, 13-second groundswell, light offshore wind. That’s clean and powerful, combined energy strong at 2362. Long period like that tends to make beach breaks close out, so Dumps might be too straight—but if you can find a peak, it’ll be memorable. Another expert-only session, but the quality is there.

Then it drops out again. The 19th and 20th are windy, lumpy messes. But the 21st is a gem—Monday morning, 5ft of WNW at 12 seconds, gentle offshore east wind, clean faces. Combined energy moderate at 715, but it’s going to be glassy. This is the best all-round wave of the whole stretch—manageable size, good period, offshore wind. Crowds are possible, but that’s the trade-off.

The 22nd is small and clean-ish, nothing special. Then the 23rd—Wednesday—delivers another big one: 10ft of WNW at 11 seconds, light offshore breeze, excellent conditions for experienced surfers. Combined energy strong at 2380. This one’s got real power and shape. And the 24th Thursday holds 7ft of NW, clean and cross-offshore, very good conditions—a solid follow-up.

So the two true standouts on offer? Sunday the 13th for the cleaner, more manageable size, and Monday the 21st for perfection. The big days on the 16th, 18th, and 23rd are for experts only—heavy, powerful, and not for the faint-hearted. Water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing weird going on there.

Keep an eye on the long-range stuff—it’s promising but less certain the further out you go. For now, I’d be circling Sunday the 13th and Monday the 21st in the calendar.

Rusty

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