Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cooking for Brandon Bay. We’ve got a solid 16-day window, but the start is a bit of a write-off. The first few days are a total washout with poor surf conditions, so we’re looking at a gap of about five days before anything even gets close to worthwhile.

The first real chance of a wave is around Saturday, September 5th, but even then it’s marginal. Dumps is showing 8ft of swell from the West with a period of 9 seconds in the morning. The wind is light and cross-shore, so it’s not a total mess, but the energy is moderate (915) and the report says it’s touch-and-go with the tide. The afternoon gets chopped up by a moderate breeze, so it’s not a standout.

The next big event is a massive pulse of energy that rolls in on Thursday, September 3rd. We’re talking 10ft to 12ft of swell from the West, with a period around 10 to 11 seconds. The combined energy jumps into the thousands (1852 to 2940), which is strong. But here’s the kicker – the wind is onshore and howling at 18 to 22 mph. That’s creating poor surf conditions. This is a big, powerful, and messy wave. For a beach setup like Dumps, this is more of a kite-surfing zone than a paddle session. Unless you’re an expert looking for a beating, skip it.

The real standout, the one you’ve been waiting for, is the window around Sunday, September 13th. This is the best on offer. Dumps is looking at 10ft of swell from the West-Northwest (WNW) with a 10-second period on Sunday morning, and the wind is a clean offshore breeze from the East-Northeast (ENE) at 12 mph. The report says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” The energy is very strong at 1796. This is a powerful, clean, offshore wave. The crowd profile at Dumps says “sometimes”, so it might be worth a dawn patrol. The water temperature is about average for the time of year. If you’re an intermediate or above, this is the day to circle.

The following Monday, September 14th, looks like a nice follow-up. The swell drops to a more manageable 5ft from the North-Northwest (NNW) with a 9-second period, but the wind is dead glassy (0 mph). The report says “expect very good surf conditions.” The energy is moderate (734). This is a smaller, clean, glassy day that is perfect for refining your craft. Much more friendly for intermediates.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is a bust. The big swell mid-week is a stormy mess. The clear winner is the offshore, powerful swell on Sunday the 13th, with a glassy, smaller option on Monday the 14th as a solid backup. That’s your window.

Rusty out.

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