Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's break down what's happening at Dumps (Brandon Bay). Gotta be honest, it's a long road ahead before we get any decent waves.

The water's sitting at about 64°, which is a touch warmer than we'd normally see this time of year. A nice little bonus for the sessions to come.

Right now, Thursday the 27th morning, we've got small 3ft waves from the WNW with a period of 9 seconds. The wind is a cross-off from the NE at 9 mph, so the conditions are actually clean, but the energy is weak (121). It's surfable but pretty ordinary. Thursday afternoon is much more interesting though. The wind drops right out to glassy conditions from the NNE at just 3 mph, with the swell dropping a touch to 3ft. That glassy wind is a massive plus, and the wave energy is low (96), but it'll be clean as a whistle for a slow, small-wave session.

Friday the 28th and Saturday the 29th? Don't bother. We're looking at tiny, weak swell and onshore or cross-onshore winds. The surf is pretty much flat and blown out.

Sunday the 30th sees a pulse of energy come in. The morning shows 4ft from the W with a 9-second period, and the combined energy jumps to a moderate 247. But the wind is a cross-onshore from the SW, so it's going to be a bit lumpy and messy. The afternoon builds to 5ft and 317 energy, but still cross-onshore. It's not going to be pretty.

Monday the 31st through Thursday the 3rd of September sees the swell size pick up further, with heights between 5ft and 6ft. The wave energy gets strong, hitting 596 and higher. But the wind is a problem - mostly onshore or cross-onshore. The surf is going to be a choppy, blown-out mess. Not worth paddling out for.

Now here's where it gets wild. Friday the 4th of September morning, a big groundswell arrives. We're talking 8ft from the WNW with a very long period of 13 seconds. The combined energy is a massive 1974. That's some serious power. But the wind is howling onshore from the W at 25 mph. The waves will be big, powerful, and absolutely shredded by the wind. This is an expert-only situation, and even then, the conditions will be horrendous. The afternoon drops to 8ft with a 12-second period, still huge, but still onshore and windy. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Finally, we get our window. Saturday the 5th of September is the standout. The morning brings 6ft from the NW with a 10-second period. The combined energy is a strong 808. But the key is the wind: a light offshore from the E at just 6 mph. That's clean, offshore conditions on a solid, powerful swell. Expect very good surf. Dumps will be handling this NW swell well, and with those light offshore breezes, the waves should be holding up nicely. The afternoon is still good, with 5ft and offshore winds from the ESE at 9 mph, still clean with gentle offshore conditions.

Sunday the 6th and Monday the 7th are messy again with strong cross-shore winds and lumpy conditions, so skip those.

Tuesday the 8th of September is another solid option. The morning has 5ft from the W with a 10-second period and a light cross-offshore breeze from the NE at just 3 mph. The energy is strong at 608, and the conditions are clean. The afternoon is similar with 6ft and clean conditions. This is a good, solid day for it.

After that, it deteriorates again. Wednesday the 9th and Thursday the 10th see the wind turning onshore and cross-shore, ruining the quality. The swell drops off into the weekend. So, in short: a lot of waiting, but Saturday the 5th is your best bet, with Tuesday the 8th as a solid backup.

Rusty out.

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