Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Brandon Bay over this 16-day stretch. I’ll be straight with you – it’s a tough one. We’re looking at a long, dry spell of poor surf conditions for the better part of the next week and a half, with only a tiny glimmer of hope right at the very end.

The opening window is a real struggle. From Monday the 27th of July right through to the weekend, the wind is mostly cross or cross-onshore, making a mess of things. The swell hovers around 4 ft to 7 ft, mostly from the WNW, with a short and choppy period of 7 to 10 seconds. The combined wave energy is moderate, hitting 747 (moderate energy) on the Monday morning, but the conditions are chop, not clean faces. The water is a touch warmer than normal at 63°.

Then we hit a proper flat spell. From Friday the 31st of July, the swell drops right off into the weeds. The 1st of August sees puny 1.0 ft to 1 ft waves with barely any energy (26 to 32 combined energy). That dead run continues through the first week of August. The 2nd of August offers a brief moment of relief on Sunday afternoon with glassy conditions and 2 ft – but it’s just too small to get excited about. The 3rd is similar, clean but weak. The 4th, 5th, and 6th of August are a total write-off with tiny, inconsistent waves and no power.

The first real glimmer of hope comes on Friday the 7th of August. The afternoon looks promising: a 7 ft swell from the WNW, with a short 7-second period, but the wind shifts to a light cross-offshore from the SSE, offering clean conditions. The combined wave energy jumps to 415 (moderate). The swell is nearly 5 ft, so it’s getting a bit too much for absolute beginners, but for the experienced crew, this is the standout. The swell direction is WNW, but the guidance says the optimum is NW – it’s a bit off, but the clean conditions are the real draw. Dumps (Brandon Bay) is a fairly exposed spot, and it’s fairly consistent, so it stands a chance of holding that swell. Crowds are possible here on a day like that.

Saturday the 8th of August gets bigger, with a 8 ft NW swell, but the wind swings back to a nasty cross-onshore from the NW at 16 to 22 mph, trashing the surface. That’s getting into expert-only territory, and the wind is a killer. The 9th is messy, but the 10th of August Monday morning brings a glassy, clean 3 ft with a NW wind. It’s small, but it’s the only other clean window in the whole run.

So, to wrap it up: the best of a bad bunch is Friday the 7th of August afternoon at Dumps. The 7 ft swell with clean, cross-offshore winds is the only day that really fires. Everything else is either flat, blown out, or both. The long gap from the 31st of July to the 6th of August is a dead zone with no real surf on offer. Keep an eye on the forecast, because it’s been a tough run, but it tends not to stay this poor for long.

Rusty.

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