Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you about what’s coming for Dumps (Brandon Bay). To be honest, the next 16 days don’t exactly have me jumping out of my wetsuit. The whole outlook is a bit of a flat, wind-affected mess, with only a couple of moments that might be half-decent.

The water temp is sitting at a pretty warm 64°F which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – keeps the rubber thin.

We get a slight glimpse of hope on Tuesday morning the 11th, but with a tiny 1 ft swell out of the NNW, period a weak 8 seconds, and combined energy of only 54, it’s basically flat. That morning does have a cross-off breeze from the SE at 12 mph, so it’ll be clean, but there’s just no power to work with.

Wednesday the 12th picks up a little. The morning offers a 3 ft swell from the WSW, period 10 seconds, with an energy reading of 164. It’s surfable but very ordinary. The SSE wind is 9 mph as a cross-off, which keeps the surface clean. Honestly, that Wednesday morning session is probably your best bet across the whole run – it’s the standout purely because everything else has more problems.

Thursday the 13th through to Monday the 17th is just a slog of weak swell and poor wind directions. The swell hangs around 3 ft to 5 ft, but the period drops, and most days have cross-on or onshore winds that chop things up. Even Saturday the 15th sees a clean-ish morning with a light breeze, but the swell is only 4 ft from the WNW at a short 8 seconds, and it’s a cross-on wind. It won’t be pretty.

The only other time worth noting is Monday the 17th morning. The swell is 4 ft from the W, 8 second period, energy 180. The 6 mph ESE wind blowing cross-off will clean it right up. Again, it’s not big or powerful, but it’s the cleanest wave in a long stretch of messy ones.

Dumps (Brandon Bay) is fairly consistent, intermediate level, and fairly exposed to swell coming from the NW. The crowds are a "sometimes" thing, so you might have company on those cleaner mornings. But for this 16-day run, don't expect much. The setups more likely to be a struggle than a score.

This spot is mostly a beach setup and with so many days of strong cross-shore or onshore winds – especially the near-gale stuff we see from the 21st onwards – the surface will be messy. If the wind keeps up and the swell is just slop, this spot looks more interesting for kite surfing than for paddling.

If you’re desperate for a paddle, aim for the morning of Wednesday the 12th or Monday the 17th. Everything else is a write-off, and the stuff around the 21st to 24th is just big, windy chaos.

Rusty.

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