Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – the next 16 days for Dumps (Brandon Bay) are a bit of a mixed bag, with a lot of average to poor conditions and very few windows where it all comes together. The pattern starts with a small, wobbly swell that’s mostly blown out, then we get a long dry spell of tiny surf, before a solid pulse of late-arriving swell builds right at the end of the period. The standout is a single session on the morning of Friday the 24th of July, which is the only real highlight on the board.

We kick off on Thursday morning, the 9th of July. There’s a 4ft swell from the west, but it’s messy with a cross-on breeze and barely any energy (281). Not worth paddling out. Thursday afternoon is even worse – clear skies but the wind swings to a cross-on and the surf goes flat. That’s the first few days of the forecast.

The next real chance comes Friday morning, the 10th of July. The swell holds at 4ft, now from the west-northwest, with a nice 11-second period and a solid 400 combined energy. The wind is a light cross-off breeze, making it clean. It’s a decent intermediate wave. The afternoon, though, gets a cross-shore wind and the score drops. Saturday the 11th drops to 3ft and the wind picks up, making it pretty ordinary. From Sunday the 12th through to Thursday the 17th, the swell plummets to knee-high at best – 1ft to 2ft – with long gaps of clean but tiny conditions. The energy is weak (as low as 16). Surfable, but only just. There’s a solid 8-day stretch of tiny waves here, with very little to get excited about.

Friday the 17th of July sees a slight bump to 2ft from the west with a 12-second period, but the wind is cross-shore and the energy is still moderate (120). It’s not really clean. The weekend of the 18th and 19th stays small, with cross-shore winds and occasional lumps. By Monday the 20th of July, the wind is howling at 28 mph from the north, making it a total mess. That’s more of a kite-surfing session than a paddle day.

Now, the real standout arrives on the morning of Friday the 24th of July. The swell jumps to 8ft from the northwest, with a 9-second period and massive combined energy of 949 – that’s strong wave energy. The wind is light and cross-offshore from the east-southeast, so the waves will be clean. This is a big, powerful swell for the area, and it’s a wave for experienced surfers only – over 8ft is expert territory. The direction is northwest, which is the optimum direction for Dumps, so it’s going to hold up well. This is the one to aim for, but it’s over two weeks away, so treat it as a promising but not certain call.

Water temperature is about average for the time of year, so no major surprises there.

Overall, there’s a long gap of tiny, poor surf from the 11th through to the 23rd, and then a solid, late-arriving pulse on the 24th. If you’re patient, that morning is your best bet. Otherwise, it’s a quiet run.

Rusty.

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