Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, grab a coffee, mate. Rusty here, and I've got the skinny on Dumps over the next couple of weeks. The long and short of it is: it's a tough run for a wave. We've got some big numbers on the board, but the wind just won't play nice, and the water's feeling strange.

First up, the water temp at Dumps is sitting at 65°, which is a solid 4° warmer than what we'd normally expect for this time of year. That’s a pretty notable anomaly; the ocean's got a fever.

Looking at the whole 16-day window, there’s a brutal dry spell at the start. We’re looking at day after day of "poor surf conditions" from Sunday the 16th all the way through to Friday the 21st. That's nearly a full week of nothing worth paddling for. The swell is there, but the wind is constantly cross or cross-on, and when it's "on", it's howling. There's a brief moment on Saturday morning, the 22nd of August, where the energy is weak (78), but the wind goes light and cross-off, giving us "clean" conditions with pathetic little 3ft waves from the NNW. It's surfable, but it's about as exciting as watching paint dry.

The real kicker doesn't show up until Sunday the 30th of August. By then, the swell is pumping hard. Sunday morning sees a solid 8ft swell from the WNW with a combined energy of 1074, so there's plenty of push. But here's the heartbreaker: the wind is a near gale, 31 mph from the WNW, slamming straight cross-on. That’s "blown out" conditions. Even Monday the 31st, with 6ft waves, gets ripped apart by 22 mph onshore winds. With that kind of wind and a beach setup, it looks like the kites are going to have way more fun than the surfers.

Honestly, the one standout that's worth a mention – with a huge caveat – is Wednesday the 19th of August. We see the biggest swell of the whole run: 12ft from the WNW in the morning, with a combined energy of 2443. That's a serious amount of water. The period is 10 seconds, so it's a solid groundswell, but not a crazy long one. For a heavy spot like Dumps, 12ft is strictly for experts only. The wind is onshore at 22 mph, so it'll be a washing machine. It’s big and dangerous, but if you're an absolute charger and don't mind a battle, that Wednesday morning is the only day with the raw power to maybe make it worthwhile. But for the average surfer, steer clear.

Bottom line: it's a rough outlook. Long gaps of nothing, and when the swell does show, the wind ruins the party. Don't hold your breath.

Rusty.

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