Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for Brandon Bay.

The next couple of weeks are a tale of two halves. We’ve got a long, flat, and pretty frustrating stretch of nothing to start, but if you can wait it out, there’s a real pulse of energy building towards the end of the first week of August. The water temp is sitting about average for the time of year, so nothing weird going on there.

We’re looking at a real dry spell from the start of the forecast right through to the morning of Thursday, August 6th. That’s over a week of mostly tiny, weak, and messy conditions. The combined swell energy is down in the double digits, barely cracking 160 ft for most of it. There’s a tiny window of clean surf on the morning of Sunday, August 2nd, with a cross-offshore breeze and a small 2 ft swell from the NNW, but it’s weak and inconsistent. Not worth getting excited about.

Then, on Thursday, August 6th morning, the first real sign of life shows up. A 2 ft groundswell from the NW with a long period of 12 seconds rolls in. The wind is glassy, dead calm. The combined energy is a modest 125 ft, so it’s not powerful, but it’s clean. This is a glimmer of hope, but still just a starter.

The real standout window kicks off on Friday, August 7th. The morning is the pick of the whole forecast. Dumps (Brandon Bay) is looking at a 7 ft swell from the west, with a period of 9 seconds and a light cross-offshore breeze from the north. The combined energy is a solid 747 ft, and the conditions are described as clean. This is proper surf. The afternoon sees the swell push up to 8 ft, but it gets a little cross-shore and a bit messy. Still, that morning session is the one to circle.

Saturday, August 8th, is almost as good. The morning session is glassy again, with a 8 ft WNW swell at 10 seconds. The energy is pumping at 983 ft. This is another top-tier session, clean and powerful. The afternoon will be a bit onshore and weaker, but that morning is a classic.

Now, a word of caution. After that, from Sunday, August 9th onwards, the wind goes to hell. A strong cross-onshore flow from the NW kicks in, bringing choppy, lumpy conditions. The swell stays big, over 8 ft, and the energy is massive, hitting 1510 ft on Sunday afternoon, but the wind is just going to trash it. This setup is genuinely more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The swell is too big and messy for a clean paddle session.

So, to sum it up: the best of the best is the morning of Friday, August 7th, and the morning of Saturday, August 8th. Get on those. The rest of the first week is a write-off, and the second week is blown out by strong wind. The long wait is worth it for those two morning windows.

Rusty, signing off.

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