Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Dumps (Brandon Bay). Honestly, it’s a pretty grim stretch ahead. We’ve got a long, dry run of poor conditions before a couple of windows that might just make it worth paddling out.

The first real sign of life doesn’t show up until Thursday the 30th of July. Before that, it’s a whole lot of nothing. From now through the 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 25th, 26th, 27th, 28th, and 29th – that’s ten days of straight-up poor surf, a mix of cross-shore chop, onshore junk, and really weak swell. The morning of the 25th sees a jump in size with a 7ft swell from the WNW, but it’s onshore wind and the combined energy hits 1155 (strong), so it’s just a messy, blown-out lump. Too big for beginners, and with the wind howling, it’s more of a kite session than a paddle. That same pattern sticks around, with onshore winds and lumpy conditions through the 27th, 28th, and 29th, even though the swell stays in the 6ft to 7ft range.

Now, Thursday the 30th of July. This is the standout. Morning glass – zero wind, WSW, glassy as a mirror. The swell is 5ft from the NW with a 9-second period, and the combined energy is 421 (moderate). That’s a solid, clean wave for an intermediate surfer. The water’s sitting at 64°F, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year. Dumps is a fairly exposed spot, and with the optimum swell direction from the NW, this is the best we’ve got. It’s not huge, but it’s clean, and you’ll have the place to yourself – crowds are only sometimes. The afternoon on the 30th turns cross-on, so make the most of that morning.

Then Friday the 31st of July, another bright spot. Morning offshore wind from the E at just 3 mph, clean conditions, and a 5ft swell from the W with a 9-second period. The combined energy is 376 (moderate). It’s a touch smaller than Thursday, but the offshore breeze will groom it nicely. Again, Dumps is fairly consistent, so this is a legit option. The afternoon gets a bit cross-shore, but the morning is where it’s at.

After that, it fades. Saturday the 1st of August has a 3ft swell from the W, but it’s cross-off and surfable, but nothing special. The combined energy drops to 220 (weak). Then from Sunday the 2nd onwards, it’s back to poor conditions, onshore winds, and small, weak swell. The 3rd of August sees a 5ft swell but with onshore winds, so it’s messy. The 4th of August has a 7ft swell in the morning and 8ft in the afternoon, but both are onshore and poor, with the afternoon energy hitting 1083 (strong) – again, more kite territory.

So, the play: aim for the morning of Thursday the 30th of July, or the morning of Friday the 31st of July. Those are the clean, fun windows. Everything else is a write-off. Don’t hold your breath for the rest.

Rusty

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