Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk about Dumps here at Brandon Bay. The outlook is a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got some decent swell windows, but a lot of wind and chop to work around.

The first real chance to get wet comes on Monday, the 24th. It’s not huge, but the morning light breeze from the ESE has it sitting clean with a 4ft NW groundswell pushing in with a period of 11 seconds. That longer period will give the waves some shape and make paddling out a little easier, though the sets will be spaced out. The water’s sitting at 63°F, a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, so the sting is off. By Monday afternoon, it goes glassy – 4ft of WNW swell, dead light SE wind. That afternoon session is looking real clean, a genuine standout window with some solid wave energy (383).

Tuesday the 25th stays rideable but nothing special. Morning brings 3ft of W swell with a clean offshore breeze from the east, but it’s not the same quality as Monday. Afternoon is similar, just a little smaller at 3ft. The combined energy drops off too (127).

From Wednesday the 26th through the end of the month, things go pretty flat or get blown out. There’s a big gap of poor conditions – small swell, strong cross and onshore winds, lumpy chop. The weekend of the 30th/31st sees the swell jump up over 5ft, but it comes with 15-22 mph onshore winds. It’s messy. That 8ft WNW groundswell on Monday the 31st has serious energy (959), but with a fresh onshore wind, it’s just a washing machine. Not for beginners, and honestly, it’s rough.

We get a little glimmer on Wednesday the 2nd of September. Morning shows 5ft of W swell with a clean cross-offshore breeze and the combined energy is moderate (270). Afternoon looks similar with 6ft and a clean cross-offshore from the north. That’s your second real standout – it should be surfable and clean, though the period is short at 7 seconds so don’t expect a lot of push.

Thursday the 3rd starts marginal, then the wind picks up again. After that, it’s a long run of messy, blown-out conditions right through to the end of the window on September 8th. The 8th throws up a massive 13ft swell with a 14-second period (7164 energy – very strong), but it’s crossed up and onshore. That’s expert-only territory and honestly, it looks more like a kite day than a paddle day.

Overall, if you're keen, Monday the 24th afternoon and Wednesday the 2nd of September are your best bets. The rest of the period is mostly a write-off. It won't stay quiet forever, but forecasts can change.

Rusty

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