Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's break down the surf coming our way at Dumps (Brandon Bay). It's a rough start, but there's some serious potential if we're willing to wait it out.

The next week and a half is a mixed bag, to be honest. We're looking at a lot of onshore and cross-onshore winds messing things up, with the water sitting at 63°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year. The first few days are pretty much a write-off. Wednesday and Thursday are small, choppy, and blown out. Friday the 4th brings a big jump in size with a proper pulse of 13ft swell from the WNW, but the wind is howling onshore, so it'll be a complete mess. Forget it.

The first real window of opportunity shows up on Saturday the 5th. The swell drops back to a more manageable 7ft, also from the WNW, but the wind swings around to a light cross-offshore breeze from the SSE. It’s still going to be a bit wild and the energy is moderate at 963, but this is our first chance at some clean, rideable waves. It's not perfect, but it's the best on offer in this first stretch. By Sunday morning the size drops right off, so Saturday morning is your call.

We then go through another messy spell with more wind and lumpy conditions through the middle of next week. Thursday the 10th has some size at 7ft, but the wind is on it, making it poor. Don't get too excited.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Mark your calendars for Sunday the 13th of September. This is the standout. The models are showing a serious, long-period groundswell from the WNW, with wave heights hitting that magic 12ft mark and a period of 15 seconds. That’s very long-period energy, which is going to mean some serious power and shape. The energy reading is a hefty 5100, so you know it’s packing a punch. The Sunday morning wind is light and variable, and then the afternoon looks even better with a light cross-onshore breeze. This is the one to point for. It's going to be big, so this is strictly for the experienced crew out there. Anything over 8ft is expert territory. The potential for a legit, standout session on a point or reef break is right there. Just remember, forecasts this far out are promising, not guaranteed.

After that, the wind gets ugly again on Monday the 14th with strong cross-shore breezes, and the week after just kind of fades away with dropping swell and a messy northerly wind. There's a small window on Tuesday the 15th afternoon with light winds and a clean 3ft wave, but nothing to get too worked up about. The long story short? Suffer through the junky days, and keep your fingers crossed for that Sunday the 13th. That's our shot at something special.

Rusty, out.

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