Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here, checking in on the local surf scene for the next couple of weeks. It's a quiet stretch overall, so we'll be picking our moments. The only break with any real action on the cards is Dumps (Brandon Bay), and even that's a waiting game.

The water temp is sitting at 62°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, a nice little bonus for the wetsuit crew.

The pattern for the next two and a half weeks is pretty lacklustre. We start with a period of no recommendations for the first few days. From the 7th to the 23rd of July, the consistent theme is small, weak, and messy surf with mostly cross-onshore breezes. The wave energy is negligible, with most readings in double digits and only a few pushing into the low hundreds.

The only real window worth getting excited about is a very specific one. On the morning of Friday, the 10th of July, the stars briefly align. We've got a clean 3ft WNW swell at 11 seconds. The energy is moderate (304), and the wind is a cross-offshore breeze, which should leave the surface clean. This is definitely the standout of the outlook. Now, that cross-offshore direction is from the NNE which is close to the ideal offshore for Dumps, so the shape should be okay. Expect clean, lined-up waves, but remember it's a fairly exposed spot. The wave period is long enough to give the waves some punch, but it is a beach break setup, so that longer period might make a few sections a little straight. Crowds are possible here sometimes, so you might have some company.

That Friday morning is the only real highlight. The rest of the second week is a total write-off. We've got a long, dry spell from the 11th right through to the 22nd, with the swell dropping to under 2ft many days and wind states that are either offshore but weak, or cross-shore and choppy. It's just flat and small. There's a tiny uptick on the morning of the 22nd of July with a 3ft W swell that's glassy, but with a short period and low energy (137), it's only going to be small, fat, and ordinary. Don't get your hopes up for it.

So, to wrap it up: keep the 10th of July morning pencilled in. It's a short, clean window with a bit of energy. The rest of the period is a waiting game for a new swell. It’s not a classic time of year, but forecasts can shift. Keep an eye on the charts.

Rusty.

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