Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the menu for Dumps over the next couple of weeks.

Straight up, the first few days are a bit of a write-off. We’ve got small, weak swell and unfavourable winds, so don’t bother rushing out just yet. The real story starts to build from Monday the 24th of August, when things finally get interesting.

Monday morning, August 24th, is the standout window. The swell bumps up to a clean 4 ft out of the NW, and the period stretches out to a nice long 11 seconds. That’s proper groundswell. The wind is light offshore from the ESE, so the faces will be clean. The combined energy jumps to a solid 331 (moderate wave energy), which is a big step up from the weak stuff we’ve been seeing. The water is sitting at 64° which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so the wetsuit might feel a bit more comfortable. Get on it early.

Monday afternoon stays glassy with the same 4 ft swell, but the period drops to 10 seconds. Still very surfable, just a little less grunt.

Tuesday the 25th keeps the vibes going with a 3 ft swell from the west, clean offshore wind from the ESE, and a combined energy of 168. It’s not huge, but it’s a good, clean, fun-sized wave.

Wednesday the 26th sees a drop in size and energy, but the wind stays light, so it’s not a total loss.

Thursday morning the 27th brings back a 4 ft WNW swell with a 10-second period, and again, light offshore wind. The energy is 224, giving it a bit of push. The afternoon gets messy with a strong NW wind, so session early.

From Friday the 28th onward, the wind really turns on us. We get a moderate to fresh cross-onshore wind, and the swell gets lumpy and messy. There’s a pulse of 8 ft on Friday morning, but it’s short-period (7 seconds) and cross-onshore, making it a choppy mess. That size is also pushing into the “too big for beginners” zone, and with the wind, it’s a tough paddle.

The second week looks rough. The wind stays strong and onshore for most of it, with a big, messy swell on the 4th and 5th of September. That’s a 10 ft to 12 ft WNW swell with a very high combined energy (1664 and 2362 respectively), but with onshore winds of 19-22 mph, it’s going to be a washing machine. That’s expert-only territory, and even then, it’s not going to be pretty. The period is 10 seconds, which is long, but with that wind, it’ll be breaking all over the place.

So, to sum it up: Monday morning, August 24th, is your best bet. Get in the water early, catch that clean, solid groundswell. After that, the window is narrow and the wind starts to get nasty. There’s a long gap of poor conditions from the end of August right through the first week of September, so don’t bank on much.

Rusty.

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