Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, listen up. Things have been pretty dead here at Dumps (Brandon Bay) for a while. We’ve got a long stretch of nothing special before the ocean wakes up. A bit of patience is all it takes.

Starting off Wednesday, August 26th, we got a weak 2ft swell from the West with a short period of 8 seconds. The energy is pitiful. Wind is a light offshore from the East making it clean, but there’s just nothing to ride. That afternoon, the swell drops even more to 2ft.

Thursday, August 27th, we see a little lift. Morning has about 3ft of WNW swell, period up to 9 seconds, giving moderate energy. Winds are cross-off from the NNE at 9 mph, so it’s clean, but the report calls it "surfable but very ordinary." The afternoon is similar, with 3ft.

The rest of the week and into September is a total washout. Friday, August 28th sees onshore Westerly winds kill the 3ft waves. Saturday, August 29th is hammered by a 22 mph cross-shore from the NNW, turning the tiny 3ft chop into a mess. This pattern holds all the way through Monday, September 7th. Some days have small swell (up to 4ft), but the wind is always cross-onshore or onshore, and the quality is just "poor." If you fly a kite, those afternoons with 15-25 mph wind over a bumpy 3-6ft sea could be interesting, but for a surfboard, forget it.

Now, let’s talk about the real deal. Look to Saturday, September 5th. That morning, we get a solid 10ft groundswell from the Northwest, with a very long period of 12 seconds. The combined energy is cranking hard (3249). The wind is light from the South, a light cross-shore, leaving the surface with just small ripples. Sunday, September 6th, has similar energy but onshore wind ruins it. So Saturday is the winner that week. This is big, powerful, long-period groundswell – a heavy, thick wall that’s going to move a lot of water. If you’re an experienced surfer, this is the one. Be warned, though: with that 12-second period and 10ft faces at a fairly exposed beach, it’ll be charging and hard to get outside. The gaps between sets will be a blessing.

Sunday, September 6th, is still big at 8ft, but the wind goes messy with a 22 mph cross-onshore from the SSW, making it lumpy.

The absolute champion of the forecast window is Thursday, September 10th. That morning looks magic. A 10ft groundswell from the West with an 11-second period, delivering strong energy. The wind is glassy—totally dead calm. The report says "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers," which is rare. This is the top pick. A clean 10ft Western swell at Dumps with glassy conditions? It’s a dream session. It’s a long way out, so don’t bet the farm on it, but keep your eyes locked on this date. The afternoon goes a bit cross-shore, but the morning is gold.

So, to sum it up: the next ten days are a bust. The first real standout is Saturday, September 5th. The absolute best, no question, is Thursday morning, September 10th. It’s a long wait, but the reward is real.

Rusty

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