Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let's talk about what's on the table for Brandon Bay over the next couple of weeks. It's a bit of a mixed bag, so let's get into it.

The start of the period looks pretty grim, honestly. Tuesday the 1st through Thursday the 3rd of September is a write-off with moderate cross-onshore winds and choppy conditions on a weak, short-period swell. The combined swell energy is weak (185-417), so not much to work with. We'll be waiting a few days for something to click.

Now, the first real standout that gets me talking is Friday the 4th of September. That morning, Dumps (Brandon Bay) sees a solid 10ft groundswell from the WNW with a very long 11-second period. The wind is blowing directly offshore, and that combined energy is massive (2574). This is big, powerful, clean surf, but at 10ft, it’s strictly for experienced surfers. The afternoon gets even bigger, pushing 12ft with a 13-second period (4258 energy). The offshore wind holds, but again, this is heavy, expert-only territory. This setup would work best on a point or reef, but Dumps is a beach break, so those long-period waves could stand up and close out fast. Still, for the crew that can handle it, that Friday morning is the pick.

After that big pulse, Saturday the 5th drops off to a still-fun 8ft from the WNW in the morning with cross-shore winds, but it’s only rated as marginal. The energy is still moderate (1221). Sunday the 6th gets messy again with strong cross-onshore winds. We see another pulse on Monday the 7th with a 10ft W swell and a decent 11-second period (1836 energy), but the wind swings cross-shore and strong, making it lumpy. Not the best.

The middle of the second week gets wild. Tuesday the 8th is blown out by near-gale force winds, and Wednesday the 9th stays lumpy and cross-onshore. Not worth it.

Things finally settle down from Thursday the 10th of September. The morning is still marginal, but that afternoon we get light, cross-offshore winds with a 5ft WNW groundswell (478 energy). The water here is running at 64°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so a little bonus for the skin.

Friday the 11th is another good window. Clean, gentle cross-offshore winds from the NE with a 5ft NW swell (422 energy). It’s not huge, but it’s clean and surfable.

The next standout worth highlighting is Monday the 14th of September. Morning and afternoon see a clean 6ft to 7ft WSW swell with a gentle offshore breeze from the east (495-625 energy). Clean, offshore conditions and a nice, manageable size for intermediates. That’s a solid day.

Then, Tuesday the 15th of September morning brings the best wave quality of the whole run for experienced surfers. A 7ft W groundswell with a very long 12-second period and light cross-offshore winds (1401 energy). This is excellent, clean, powerful surf. The long period means it’ll have plenty of energy and shape, but at Dumps, being a beach break, watch for it to stand up a bit straight. For the experienced surfer, this is the second big highlight after that first Friday.

The run finishes on Wednesday the 16th with a clean, glassy 6ft WNW swell in the afternoon (495 energy). A nice, calm end to a forecast that started with a lot of waiting.

So, to sum it up: if you’re an expert, get on Friday the 4th of September for the biggest, cleanest swell. For the rest of us, Monday the 14th of September offers the best combination of clean, offshore wind and manageable size. The 15th of September morning is also a cracker for those with the skill.

Stay stoked, and keep an eye on the sky.

Rusty

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