Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's break down what's cooking for the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, it's a rough start. We've got a long stretch of poor conditions ahead. The water is sitting at 65°, which is much warmer than we'd normally expect for this time of year, so that's a bit of a weird one.

The first real chance of anything decent doesn't show up until Tuesday, August 18th. Even then, it's marginal. The swell is building on Tuesday morning with a 6ft WNW swell, period around 9 seconds, and light onshore wind. The combined energy is moderate (573). It's not great, but it's the first sign of life. By Tuesday afternoon, the swell pushes to 8ft from the WNW with a longer period of 11 seconds, and the energy jumps to 1370, but the wind stays onshore. It's still only rated as marginal due to tide.

After that, things get messy again. Wednesday the 19th looks big but blown out with 10ft swells and strong onshore winds, and Thursday the 20th is still lumpy. There's a bit of a cleanup on Friday morning, August 21st, with a small 4ft swell from the NW, a cross-offshore breeze, and clean conditions. This is the first surfable window, but it's very small. The energy is low (176) and the period is short (7 seconds), so it's not going to be anything special.

The next window that catches my eye is Tuesday, August 25th. Both morning and afternoon show a consistent 6ft swell from the west with an 11-second period, which is a nice long-period groundswell. The combined energy is moderate to strong (754 and 683). The wind is light and cross-onshore, so it might be a bit bumpy, but it's the best-looking swell of the whole run. This one is worth keeping an eye on, but it's a long way out, so don't book the trip just yet.

The standout for the whole period, if you're patient, is that Tuesday the 25th. The swell direction is W, which is close to the optimum NW for Dumps, and the size is solid for intermediates. Just be aware that the long period might make it a bit tricky at a beach break, and Dumps can be a fairly consistent spot, so it's not a total write-off. There's also a chance of crowds, as it's listed as "sometimes" busy.

After that, the last few days are small and choppy again. Thursday morning, August 27th, has a brief moment of glassy conditions with a 4ft swell, but it's tiny and the energy is low.

So, in short: a long wait, a few marginal days, and one solid-looking Tuesday (25th) that's really the only true standout. Fingers crossed the forecast holds.

Rusty.

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