Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's break down this 16-day outlook for you. We're looking at a pretty wild ride at the one spot on the menu.

First up, it’s a rough start. Don’t bother waxing up for the first eight days, from Tuesday the 15th of September right through to Tuesday the 22nd. That whole stretch is a write-off. The onshore wind is relentless, hammering the place with a fresh breeze or stronger most of the time, and the swell is just a messy, blown-out brute. The combined energy sits in the moderate to very strong range, but it’s all wasted. It’s poor surf conditions, no question. You’d be fighting a losing battle out there. Between Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th, we’re talking solid 15ft waves with a 13-second period, but the wind is screaming onshore. It’s the kind of setup that looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, to be honest. Even the few marginal windows on Saturday and Sunday the 20th are still cross-onshore and choppy. Just save your energy.

Now we get to the stuff worth talking about. The real standout in this whole forecast is Wednesday, September 23rd. For the morning session at Dumps (Brandon Bay), a powerful, long-period groundswell from the WNW rolls in. We are looking at 10ft with a solid 13-second period, and the combined energy is pumping. The wind is light from the SSE, giving us clean, cross-offshore conditions. The report calls this excellent for experienced surfers, and that’s exactly what it is. This is the one to circle on the calendar. A big, clean, lined-up swell at a break that’s fairly exposed to that direction. It’s going to be a serious session. Keep in mind, with that size and power, this is strictly for the experienced crew. The crowd factor is listed as sometimes, so you might have some company, but it’ll be worth sharing the lineup for waves like that.

After that big day, the pattern settles down. The following standout is Friday, September 25th. The morning shows another clean window with a clean 7ft swell from the W, 12-second period, and light cross-offshore wind. Good energy. Then the afternoon gets even cleaner. The wind goes glassy from the WNW, and though the swell drops to 6ft with a 12-second period, the description says "expect very good surf conditions." That’s a super clean, fun-sized afternoon on your hands.

After that, the swell fades into the end of the month and the start of October. There’s a nice stretch from the morning of Saturday, September 26th right through to Wednesday, September 30th with smaller, cleaner waves. The wind is mostly light, often offshore or glassy, so the conditions will be beautiful. The swell is on the smaller side (1ft to 5ft), so you won’t get any of the power from the 23rd, but for a longboard or a funboard, these will be clean, user-friendly days. The combined energy drops right back down, so we’re talking weak to moderate energy. Don’t expect any barrels, but expect some lovely, clean little lines.

To wrap it up: the first week is a total bust, so don't bother. The absolute best day is without a doubt the morning of Wednesday, September 23rd for a powerful, expert-level session. The secondary call is Friday the 25th for a cleaner, more manageable day. After that, settle in for smaller but very clean conditions through the end of the window.

Rusty.

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