Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next 16 days at Dumps (Brandon Bay) are a tough watch for a surfer looking for a proper session. It’s a long stretch of small, mediocre, or messy conditions, with only a couple of brief windows where it might just be worth paddling out.

The first week is mostly a write-off. From Friday 17th July right through to the end of that week, we’re looking at tiny, weak swell, often under 3 ft, and the wind is mostly cross or cross-onshore, adding chop. The combined energy down there is weak, sitting in the low double digits (39 to 117). The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual. The weekend of the 19th to 20th sees a tiny bump of 2 ft to 3 ft with a cleaner cross-offshore breeze on the mornings, but it’s still small and ordinary. A couple of those mornings are clean, but you’ll be fighting for scraps.

The real kicker comes later in the period. The second week sees a big jump in swell size, but mother nature isn't playing nice. From Friday 24th July, we get a solid pulse of NW swell, with chest to head-high waves (5 ft to 6 ft) and moderate energy (450–575), but the wind is straight onshore and strong. That’s messy, blown-out surf. Then Saturday 25th July morning, the swell jacks up to a solid 8 ft from the NW, with a period of 11 seconds, and the combined energy is a strong 1385. That’s a powerful, heavy wave. But the wind is cross-onshore and choppy. For a beach break setup like this, that size and wind is a recipe for closeouts and a fight. This is expert territory only, and honestly, it looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer.

The absolute best chance you’ll get is the morning of Tuesday 28th July. The swell drops back to a manageable 5 ft from the WNW, period of 10 seconds. The kicker is the wind: glassy. The forecast says "expect good surf conditions" for that morning. Combined energy is a solid 463 – moderate power. That’s the one. A clean, glassy morning with a solid 5 ft swell. The crowd factor at Dumps is described as "sometimes" busy, so on a good morning like that, expect a few others out. Don’t sleep on that one.

After that, we’re back to onshore winds and marginal conditions, with a brief, clean, glassy morning on Saturday 1st August, but with a smaller 4 ft WNW swell and only 239 energy. It’s surfable, but nothing to get excited about.

So there you have it. A long, dry spell, a messy swell window for experts only, and one solitary, clean, glassy morning on the 28th of July that’s your best bet. That’s the one to aim for.

Rusty.

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