Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, folks. Let’s have a look at what’s coming our way. The data’s in, and I gotta be straight with you – this is a tough one. The next sixteen days are looking pretty grim. We’ve got a promising blip way out there, but you’ll be waiting a long time for it.

The immediate picture is bleak. The only break on the radar is Dumps (Brandon Bay), and for the first nine days, it’s a write-off. We’re talking about a stretch from Sunday, the 26th of July, right through to Monday, the 3rd of August, with nothing but poor surf. The wind is a constant problem – mostly cross-on or cross-shore, and strong enough to keep things messy. The swell is there, but it’s onshore, it’s choppy, and it’s just not surfable. The water is a touch warmer than normal for the time of year at 63°, but that’s not much comfort when you’re looking at a flat, lumpy ocean.

The combined wave energy starts at a solid 1536 (moderate to strong), but it’s all wasted energy with that wind. The swell is a 10ft from the WNW with a 10-second period, but it’s blown out. It’s the kind of day that’s more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. It slowly drops off through the week, but the wind never lets up. By the end of July and into the start of August, the swell is tiny, and the energy is down to triple digits – 117, 125, 90 – just weak, messy leftovers.

Now, look ahead. The one real standout is a brief window on Tuesday, the 4th of August and Wednesday, the 5th. This is the best on offer, and it’s the only time you should even think about paddling out. On Tuesday afternoon, we get a clean 6ft from the west with a 9-second period. The wind turns light, from the north, and it’s cross-offshore. The combined energy jumps to 576 (moderate). The Wednesday morning holds up with a similar 7ft W swell, still clean with a NE breeze. This is a proper, short-lived window of quality surf. The 7ft and 8ft swells are getting a bit big for beginners, but for intermediates and up, it’s the only game in town. The break is fairly consistent, but in this region, it tends not to stay poor for long, so this window is a gift.

After that, it’s back to the same old story. The swell drops from Thursday, the 6th onwards, and the wind gets messy again. By the 7th of August, the combined energy is down to 43 (weak). We’re looking at a long, flat spell to finish off the forecast period.

So, to sum it up: the next week and a half is a nightmare. The only real hope is that Tuesday and Wednesday (the 4th and 5th of August) look like they could be proper clean sessions. Circle those dates, but don’t hold your breath for anything else.

Rusty.

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