Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's coming down the line for us. It's a bit of a mixed bag, to be honest. We've got a period coming up with some proper sized swell, but the wind is going to be the main character in this story, and not always in a good way.

First up, the water temp at the main spot, Dumps (Brandon Bay) , is sitting at 65°, which is a solid 4° warmer than usual for this time of year – that's a pretty wild anomaly, so you'll definitely feel that difference.

The forecast kicks off with nothing really worth paddling out for. Sunday the 16th and Monday the 17th are looking pretty poor. Small, messy waves with cross and cross-onshore winds. The combined energy is weak (98 to 116), so don't bother getting the wax out yet.

There's a big pulse of swell building from Tuesday the 18th, but it comes with a massive caveat. The swell height jumps to 5ft Tuesday morning and ramps up to 13ft by Wednesday afternoon. That's some serious power, with combined energy hitting 3378 on Wednesday. But the wind is straight onshore at 25 mph to 28 mph. For a beach-and-reef setup like this, that's going to be a complete washing machine. Honestly, with that much wind and that size, this looks way more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing – it's going to be blown out and ugly. Definitely one for the experts only if they're crazy enough, but the quality is marked as poor.

Thursday the 20th is similar, with 10ft surf but still a fresh cross-onshore wind (1789 energy). It'll be lumpy and hard work. Late Friday the 21st and Saturday the 22nd see the swell drop right back down to 1ft to 4ft. The wind finally swings around, with a light cross-offshore breeze on Saturday morning making things clean. The catch? The swell is tiny, only 2ft with weak energy (70), so it's more of a longboard or a flat day paddle.

We then hit a long gap. From Saturday afternoon the 22nd all the way through to Thursday the 27th, there's barely anything on offer. Swell drops to under 1ft most days, with energy numbers in the teens and fifties. It's a proper dry spell.

The Standout:

After that quiet period, things finally look up. Friday the 28th of August is the one to circle on the calendar. The morning session looks *very* promising. We've got a solid 8ft groundswell from the WNW, with a period of 9 seconds, and the combined energy is a beefy 1145. The key here is the wind: a light cross-offshore breeze from the NNE. This is going to result in clean, well-shaped waves. It's a big swell, over 8ft, so this is expert territory – know what you're doing. The conditions are expected to be very good.

Saturday the 29th morning is also worth a mention as a backup. Still a solid 6ft from the WNW with the same clean cross-offshore wind, though energy drops to 322. A bit smaller and more manageable for a strong intermediate.

After that, the energy fades out again into the end of the month. It's a tale of one or two epic windows in a long, otherwise blown-out or flat period.

Stay tuned, hope the swell and wind line up for you.

Rusty.

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