Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the next couple of weeks.

The short story is, we’re looking at a pretty flat and messy run for Dumps (Brandon Bay) for the first week or so. The water is 63° which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s about the only thing that’s welcoming. The wind is mostly cross-onshore or onshore, and the swell is a mix of small, short-period junk. There’s a real stretch of poor conditions from the 3rd right through the 7th, with only tiny 1ft to 2ft swells. The energy readings are pathetic, barely hitting 21 to 77 (weak energy), and the wind is blowing it all to pieces.

A bit of a pulse shows up on the 5th with a 8ft NW swell, but with a 19 mph cross-onshore wind, it’s just a blown-out, lumpy mess. Not one for the paddle.

We finally get a bit of a window on the morning of Sunday, August 9th. The wind goes glassy, turning offshore from the ESE at only 3 mph. The swell is 4ft from the WNW, and the energy is moderate at 326. It’s clean, and it’s the first real chance of a surfable wave. That morning is the standout of the whole outlook – a proper little window of clean, glassy conditions. The 5ft NW swell on Sunday afternoon has more size but the wind edges back around, making it not as clean.

Then, Monday morning, August 10th, is another solid option. You’ve got a clean 4ft NW swell with 6 mph offshore wind from the east. The wave energy is 296 (moderate). It’s a good, clean morning session. The afternoon drops off a bit.

After that, it’s back to the wilderness. The wind swings around and the swell just disappears again. From the 11th through to the 17th, it’s a long stretch of small, onshore, or cross-onshore junk. We’re talking 2ft to 3ft with very low energy (39 to 116). Not worth suiting up for.

The very end of the window, on Monday afternoon, August 17th, shows a bit of a bump with a 6ft WNW swell, but it’s a short period (7 seconds) and the wind is light cross-onshore. It’s a marginal call at best. The energy is 304 (moderate), but the quality is questionable.

So, the honest truth is, there’s only one real standout here: the glassy morning of Sunday, August 9th. The Monday 10th morning is a close second. The rest of the 16 days is a write-off. If you’re a kite surfer, that 8ft day on the 5th with the 19 mph cross-onshore wind might look interesting, but for a paddle surfer, it’s a no-go.

Stay patient, lads. The surf will come back.

Rusty

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