Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s have a look at what’s comin’ down the line for Brandon Bay.

Truth is, this outlook’s a bit of a slow burn. There’s no surf worth paddlin’ out for in the first week or so – the wind is just too mean. We’ve got a solid week of onshore and cross-onshore slop, especially through the 6th to the 8th, when those southerly and westerly winds are pumpin’ 15–25 mph. Swell’s there, sure – it pushes from 3 ft up to a thumpin’ 12 ft on the Tuesday afternoon – but with that wind direction, it’s all messy cross-chop and lumpy junk. Not worth a look.

The first real sign of life doesn’t show up until Wednesday morning the 9th at Dumps (Brandon Bay). We get a clean 5 ft swell from the NNW with onshore wind, but it’s only a 6 mph breeze, so it’s not destroyin’ it. Still, it’s only a marginal one, with combined energy at 766 (moderate). Thursday morning the 10th is similar – 5 ft from the west, cross-shore light breeze, energy down to 343. These are just teasers.

Then the whole thing goes quiet again until the 12th. That Saturday morning (12th September) we get some decent energy: 5 ft swell from the NW, period bumpin’ up to 12 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell length. Combined energy hits 997 (moderate). But the wind is cross-shore from the SSW at 12 mph, so it’s a bit choppy. Still, that 12-second period tells me the shape could be there if you pick your bank. It’s marginal, but the best lookin’ session in a while.

Skip forward again – and I mean skip – because the 13th and 14th are back to poor surf with onshore junk. Then we finally get some promise: Monday morning the 15th is the standout of the entire run. At Dumps, we’ve got 8 ft from the west, 10-second period, and only a light 6 mph cross-onshore breeze from the WSW. Combined energy sits at 1363 (strong). That’s a solid expert-level swell – over 8 ft means it’s only for the skilled crew. Conditions look the cleanest we’ve seen. Tuesday morning the 16th also gets a mention: 6 ft from the WNW, cross-shore wind from the south at 15 mph, energy 688 (moderate). It’s okay, but not as good.

The last real highlight comes on Friday morning the 18th. Dumps gets 7 ft from the west at 9 seconds, with light onshore wind from the west at 6 mph. Energy’s 695 (moderate). It’s marginal again, but the wind’s light enough that it’ll be cleaner than the rest of the week.

After that, the 19th and 20th fall back into poor surf and cross-onshore chop. But – and this is a big *but* – the very last session on Monday morning the 21st shows a cool shift: 3 ft from the WNW at 9 seconds, but with a light cross-offshore breeze from the SSE at 6 mph. The wind state is “clean”. That’s the cleanest look of the whole forecast. Small, but perfect for a longboard or a funboard if the tide plays ball.

Overall, the best window for a proper paddle is Monday morning the 15th for the crew who can handle solid waves, and Friday morning the 18th as a smaller, lighter backup. The 21st is a teaser for something small and clean.

No buoys to check, no links, just my read on what’s here.

Stay salty,
Rusty

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