Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s have a look at the charts. It’s Rusty here.

Right, let’s be honest from the start: this is not a classic spell for Dumps (Brandon Bay). We’ve got a long stretch of messy, wind-affected surf ahead before we see anything properly clean. The first recommendation doesn’t come until Thursday the 30th of July, and even then it’s pretty small.

The opening weekend is a write-off. Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th are both blown out. Saturday morning sees 6 ft of WNW swell but with a 12 mph onshore wind, and the wave energy is moderate (438). It gets bigger but uglier through the weekend – Sunday morning pushes up to 10 ft from the WNW with a 16 mph cross-onshore making it a choppy mess. That’s expert-only territory in terms of size, but the wind kills it. Not worth paddling out.

Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th stay poor. Swell drops from 7 ft to 5 ft but the wind stays cross or cross-onshore, and the wave energy drops from moderate (716) to weak (281). Wednesday the 29th is more of the same – 4 ft and onshore. Nothing to get excited about.

Then, finally, Thursday the 30th of July morning is our first real glimmer. We’ve got a tiny 2 ft of WNW groundswell, period a short 7 seconds, but the wind goes glassy. Wave energy is weak (63). It’s tiny, so this is for the longboard or the foiler, but it will be clean. If you’ve been waiting, this is the first session that’s not a fight.

Friday the 31st of July morning is another chance. Swell lifts a bit to 4 ft from the NW, period a short 6 seconds, but we get a light cross-offshore breeze from the NE. That should keep the surface clean. Wave energy is still weak (154). It’s small and a bit weak, but it’s rideable.

After that we hit a flat spell. Saturday the 1st and Sunday the 2nd of August are very small – 3 ft to 4 ft – with onshore or cross-shore winds. Nothing special.

Monday the 3rd of August morning offers another glassy window. Swell is only 3 ft from the NW, period 8 seconds, with ENE light airs. Wave energy is weak (130). Another small, clean longboard morning.

Now here’s where it gets interesting. Tuesday the 4th of August morning sees a new pulse. Swell jumps to 5 ft from the WSW, period 10 seconds, with a moderate NE cross-offshore breeze. That’s clean. Wave energy is moderate (460). This is the best looking session of the whole run. The size is solid for an intermediate, and with clean conditions and a 10-second period from the WSW, Dumps should have some decent shape. A standout for the period.

Wednesday the 5th of August morning gets big – 12 ft from the west, period 10 seconds, but the wind is a moderate cross-shore from the north (16 mph) and wave energy is very strong (2224). That’s expert-only size, but the cross-shore chop will make it tricky. Only for the very keen.

Thursday the 6th of August drops back to 5 ft with a light cross-shore wind. Surfable but nothing to write home about.

The final weekend, Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th of August, both have glassy mornings with tiny 2 ft to 2 ft west swell. Clean but very small.

Overall, if you’re looking for the best session, circle Tuesday the 4th of August morning. That’s the standout. The Thursday 30th and Friday 31st mornings are good for a small-wave cruise. The rest is either too windy, too big, or too flat.

Take it easy,
Rusty

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