Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, folks. Rusty here.

We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag on the cards for Dumps (Brandon Bay) over the next couple of weeks. There’s plenty of swell on the horizon, but the wind is going to be our biggest headache for a good stretch. The water is sitting at 61°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least the rubber won't feel too cold.

Right now, on Friday the 11th, we're kicking off with some waist-high waves around 5ft from the WNW, but a light westerly breeze is on it. The combined swell energy is moderate at 367, but the quality is marginal and it’s a bit of a write-off. That sets the tone for the next few days, I'm afraid. Through Saturday the 12th and into the middle of next week, the swell builds, with a bigger pulse from the WNW hitting 8ft on Saturday morning (combined energy of 1855), but every session is plagued with a cross-onshore wind. It’s going to be choppy and messy, with the waves getting up to 12ft on Thursday the 17th, but with a fresh cross-onshore wind, it’ll be a lumpy, bumpy mess and really only one for the experts who don't mind a beating. Honestly, this stretch looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddling. The combined energy on Thursday the 17th is a hefty 2947 to 2992, but the wind spoils it.

We get a bit of a break through the weekend of the 19th, but the swell drops right off and the winds are still cross or cross-shore, leaving us with poor conditions.

Now, here’s the standout to get excited about. The real action fires up starting on the morning of Sunday the 20th. The wind finally swings around to a light cross-offshore from the SSE, and the waves are a clean 5ft from the west. It’s a solid, rideable size with clean conditions. That’s the start of a golden run.

Monday the 21st is a treat. Morning brings a solid 8ft from the WNW with a 12-second period and a light cross-offshore breeze from the NE. The combined energy is a strong 1613, the waves are clean, and it’s excellent for experienced surfers. If you can handle a bit of size, this is a top pick.

Then it gets even better. Tuesday the 22nd is the absolute highlight. A proper, clean 10ft groundswell from the WNW, with a very long 13- to 14-second period, and the wind is pure offshore from the ESE and then the east. The combined energy is a massive 3416. This is big, powerful, clean swell. A long-period groundswell like this will offer some great lines at Dumps, but it’s one for experienced surfers only. The quality carries over into Wednesday the 23rd, with an 8ft wave and offshore winds from the ENE, giving us combined energy of 1807. It’s all clean and pumping.

We then lose it on Thursday the 24th as the wind swings back onshore and gets fresh, bringing poor conditions to finish the period off.

So, there’s a real window of gold here. The Saturday the 20th is the best for anyone wanting a clean, fun size wave. But if you’re an experienced surfer looking for the real deal, Monday the 21st through Wednesday the 23rd is the time to be in the water. Just be aware the crowds are possible at Dumps when it’s this good.

That’s the picture from here. Stay stoked.

Rusty

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