Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s cooking at Dumps (Brandon Bay).

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the first few days are a write-off. We’re talking Saturday the 29th right through to Friday the 5th of September, with nothing but poor surf conditions and a whole lot of frustration. The wind is all over the place, mostly cross or onshore, and the waves are a messy, choppy nightmare. The swell is weak to moderate in energy (values between 17 and 985), and the period is short, so there’s no real push. It’s a brutal stretch of flat, blown-out dross.

The first real glimmer of hope comes on Sunday the 6th of September. The afternoon session is where it’s at. The swell is a solid 7 ft from the W with a period of 10 seconds, and the energy is moderate (917). The wind shifts to a light NNE breeze, going cross-offshore. That means clean, glassy conditions. For a fairly exposed spot like this, that’s a gold ticket. The water is a touch warmer than normal at 64°, which is a nice bonus. The waves will be a bit punchy – not for beginners at 7 ft – but for an intermediate, this is a proper standout. Just know it can get crowded here sometimes.

Monday the 7th of September keeps the run going. Morning has a 8 ft swell from the W with a 9-second period, and the energy is strong (1189). The wind is a light cross-off from the NE, keeping it clean. This is a solid, powerful wave. The afternoon sees the swell jump to 10 ft from the WNW, but it gets a bit lumpy with a light cross-shore breeze. That’s more of an expert-only zone at that size.

Tuesday the 8th of September morning is a hidden gem. A 7 ft swell from the WNW (9 seconds) with a light N wind that’s glassy, and the energy is moderate (635). The wave comment says “good surf conditions.” This is that moment where the bay goes all silky. It’s the best on offer for the whole window – clean, manageable, and well-shaped. Get on it.

After that, the energy drops off. Wednesday the 9th sees a drop to 5 ft, and by Thursday the 10th it’s back to tiny, weak swells. The wind turns onshore again, and the window closes. The second week (from the 9th onward) is a bust – small, weak, and blown out. The 16-day run has a massive gap at the start with no surf, then a few golden days, then a slow fade to nothing.

So, if you’re looking for a paddle, you’ve got a long wait. But when it comes, Sunday the 6th and Tuesday the 8th of September are the ones to circle. The Tuesday morning glass-off is the true standout. Don’t sleep on it.

Rusty.

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