Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here, and I've gotta tell ya, the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a paddle. We've got a run of messy conditions and poor surf quality, so you'll be waiting a while for anything decent. Let's get into it.

The first recommendation isn't until Sunday the 8th of September, but even that's a struggle. We're looking at a solid spell of onshore and cross-onshore winds, with size coming up fast and heavy. The whole first week is a write-off for clean waves, with most mornings and afternoons tagged as poor surf conditions. The northwesterly swell picks up, but it's blown out.

For the first week, Dumps (Brandon Bay) is going to be a washout. The wind is mostly cross-onshore or cross, and the wave heights are climbing from 6 ft on Sunday the 6th up to 12 ft by Tuesday the 8th. That 12 ft swell with a 25 mph cross-onshore wind is going to be an absolute mess – that's big, raw and unruly, only for the brave or the kites. The combined energy values are massive though, hitting 2194 on the Tuesday morning, which shows there's plenty of power out there (2194). The water's sitting at 62°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. But honestly, with the conditions, it's just a frustrating setup.

Wednesday the 9th might be the closest we get to a salvageable window. The swell drops to 7 ft from the NW, with morning winds a light 6 mph from the WSW. The combined energy is 703 (703), which is moderate, but the period is a solid 9 seconds. It's still cross-onshore, but with a light breeze, you might find a couple of clean-ish lines if the tide plays ball. It's marginal at best. After that, the wind picks up again and it's back to choppy, poor surf.

There's a promising swell on Saturday the 12th. The swell hits 8 ft from the NW with a very long period of 12 seconds. The combined energy is a powerful 1936 (1936). But again, the wind is cross-onshore from the WSW at 9 mph, keeping it choppy. The afternoon looks a bit better with lighter winds, giving it a score of 3 – the highlight of the whole period, but still only marginal. That long period groundswell will be breaking a bit straight at this beach setup, but if you get a good bank, it'll have some punch.

After that, the second week is more of the same: onshore winds and poor surf until around the 17th and 18th, when we get another big pulse of WNW swell over 8 ft with very strong winds. That looks more like a washing machine than a wave. The run finally fades out into smaller 3 ft to 5 ft waves on the weekend of the 19th and 20th, with yet more onshore winds. The outlook doesn't really turn until the 21st of September, where a new large NW swell arrives at 10 ft to 13 ft, but once again it's blown out by cross-onshore winds. All in all, it's a tough stretch.

Rusty, signing off.

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