Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, lads, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Dumps (Brandon Bay) has got cookin’ for us over the next couple of weeks. I’ll be straight with you – this stretch of coast is looking a bit of a mixed bag. The water’s sitting at 63°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least the sting’s out of it.

We’ve got a long, quiet spell ahead. The first decent chance to even wet a line doesn’t show up until Monday the 10th of August. Before that, it’s a whole lot of nothing – poor surf and messy winds from the 6th right through to the 10th morning. That’s four days of staring at a flat or choppy sea.

Monday the 10th morning is our first real glimmer. The wind goes glassy out of the S at just 3 mph, and we get a small 3 ft swell from the WNW with a short 8-second period. The combined wave energy is weak at 166. It’s surfable, but it’s not gonna have much push. Think small, clean peelers for a log or a fish.

Tuesday the 11th morning sees a tiny 2 ft NW swell with a cross-off breeze – clean but tiny. Energy is a measly 69. Not worth paddling out for unless you’re desperate.

We get another clean window on Wednesday the 12th morning. A 3 ft WSW swell with a 9-second period, cross-off wind from the SSE at 6 mph, and combined energy of 119. It’s surfable, but still very ordinary.

Now, the real kicker – and the only true standout in this whole run – is Thursday the 20th of August morning. This is the one to circle on the calendar. We’ve got a solid 7 ft swell from the WNW, with a proper long-period of 11 seconds. The combined energy is strong at 1391. The wind is blowing onshore from the WNW at 12 mph, which isn’t perfect, but for a spot that’s fairly exposed to a NW swell, it’s gonna be pumping. The report calls it marginal due to tide, but for experienced surfers, this is the day. That’s a lot of water moving – over 8 ft, so it’s strictly for the crew who know what they’re doing. Dumps can handle a big swell, but expect it to be powerful and take no prisoners. The onshore wind will keep it a bit lumpy, but the sheer size and energy will make for some proper freight trains. Keep in mind, that’s more than a week away, so treat it as a promising prospect rather than a dead cert.

The days after that drop back down, with Thursday afternoon and Friday the 21st seeing size but staying messy and choppy with onshore winds.

So, to sum it up: the first week is lean. You get a few clean but tiny windows on the 10th and 12th mornings. The big standout is Thursday the 20th of August morning for the big-wave chargers. Keep an eye on the forecast for that one.

Stay stoked, stay safe.

Rusty

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