Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what Dumps (Brandon Bay) has got cookin' for us over the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a slow burn to start, but there's a proper pulse of energy coming through if you can be patient.

Right now, it's all a bit average. We’ve got some weak to moderate swell energy (424) pushing in from the NW on Sunday the 13th, with a 4ft wave. Problem is, that cross-on wind from the SW is messing it up, making it choppy. The water’s 62°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, but it won't matter much with the messy conditions. We then slide into Monday and Tuesday with a bit more size – Monday afternoon seeing 4ft and Tuesday pumping up to 7ft in the morning and 8ft in the afternoon. But the wind is just not playing ball; it's onshore or cross-onshore, and those 8ft+ waves on Tuesday afternoon are lumpy and blown out. That's heavy-duty energy (1168) going to waste. Wednesday and Thursday the swell stays solid, with Wednesday morning offering 8ft (1239 energy) and Thursday absolutely thumping with an 12ft in the morning and a 15ft in the afternoon. That afternoon swell has a proper 13-second period (6695 energy) but with a 22 mph onshore wind, this is only for the hardcore, and honestly, it looks more like a kiteboarding show than a surf session. Friday is still big, but still messy.

Now, hold on to your boardies, because Sunday the 20th is where it's at. We’ve got a proper standout day. The swell is a solid 12ft from the WNW with a very long 14-second period, packing a massive punch (4225 energy in the morning, 4686 in the afternoon). The real beauty is the wind: a light 6 mph offshore breeze from the E and ESE all day, keeping it glassy and clean. This is big, powerful groundswell. That kind of period can make beach breaks close out, but at a spot like Dumps that's fairly exposed to the NW, it's going to be a proper, heavy wave. Only for experienced surfers though – this is not a beginner’s wave. Keep in mind it can get busy here sometimes.

After that peak, the week rolls into smaller, cleaner conditions. Monday the 21st is back to choppy cross-onshore junk, but Wednesday the 23rd and Thursday the 24th look nice for a cruise. Wednesday morning has a clean 7ft from the WNW with a light offshore breeze, and Thursday is offering clean 4ft to 5ft waves from the NNW and NW. The energy is low (467 and 402), but the conditions will be fun for a longboard or a fish.

The very end of the run, from Friday the 25th through Monday the 28th, sees the swell drop right off. We’re looking at waves under 3ft, with light offshore winds. The energy is weak (down to 106), but the conditions will be clean. It’ll be tiny, but if you’re desperate for a paddle, you might find a ripple.

So to wrap it up: suffer through the first week of onshore slop, and you’ll be rewarded with a spectacular, heavy, clean day on Sunday the 20th. That's your standout. After that, it's smaller but cleaner for a few days before it all fades away.

Rusty.

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