Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's brewing for Brandon Bay over the next couple of weeks. I gotta be straight with you, it’s a slow start. We’re looking at a pretty grim run for a good while before anything worth paddling out for shows up.

Right now, through the end of August and into the first week of September, it’s mostly junk. Small, weak, and messy. The water temp is sitting at about 64°, which is a touch warmer than what we’re used to for this time of year, but with those onshore winds and crummy conditions, you won’t care much about the warmth. There’s a solid gap here with no real surf on offer for nearly a week.

We finally get a pulse of energy pushing in from the 3rd of September. By Thursday afternoon, the swell at Dumps (Brandon Bay) jumps to a serious 12 ft from the WNW with a long 14-second period. The energy reading hits a whopping 4697, which is a beast of a swell. But – and it’s a big but – that’s a lot of water. At over 8 ft, this is strictly for the experienced crew, and with that kind of period, it's going to be a proper groundswell that will be lining up, but it could be a handful. The wind is onshore at 12 mph though, which is a shame. It’s a marginal call for the experts.

Now, if you want the standout of the whole outlook, you’ve got to look at Friday the 4th of September. The morning still has that big 10 ft WNW swell with a 13-second period (energy at 3280), but the wind swings lighter. By Friday afternoon, it gets even better. We’ve still got a solid 10 ft swell, now with a 12-second period (energy 2064), but the wind drops to a light 6 mph from the west, going offshore. That’s clean, that’s powerful, and that is your best bet. The waves will have real shape and power, and that offshore breeze will make it glassy. It’s still big, so leave the foam boards at home. This is the one to circle on the calendar.

The surf hangs around through the weekend, dropping in size but staying punchy, though the wind kicks back onshore again. By the 9th of September, we see a weird little window with a light offshore wind from the SE and clean conditions, but the swell is down to a weak 5 ft from the NNW with a short period. It’s surfable, but nothing to get excited about.

After that, it fades out again. The middle of September looks like more of the same – onshore winds and slop. There’s a pulse of 7 ft on the 12th, but the winds are messy. It’s not looking great for the second week, honestly. For a place like Brandon Bay, these long flat spells are just part of the deal sometimes. Keep an eye on the charts though, things can change quick.

Rusty.

Read more