Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I'm looking at the next couple of weeks for Dumps (Brandon Bay).

Right now, we are in a bit of a flat spell. The swell is just too weak and the winds aren't cooperating for a good paddle. Monday the 10th through the first half of Sunday the 16th is a write-off. There's a little bit of knee-to-waist high swell in there, but the wind is messy, and the wave energy is mostly weak, between 63 and 267 (moderate energy). It's just not worth paddling out.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. On Sunday the 16th in the afternoon, things finally start to turn. The wind goes glassy, and we get a clean, 5ft swell from the west. The combined energy is moderate (336). It’s a bit of a jump, and while it’s not perfect, it’s the first real sign of life.

The next week is a mixed bag, with a lot of onshore and cross-shore wind messing up the waves. The swell stays small and weak through Tuesday the 19th, with energy staying under 220.

But hold onto your board, because Thursday the 20th of August is the real standout. The morning session is looking epic. We get a clean 7ft swell from the WNW, light offshore winds from the NE, and the wave energy jumps to a strong 840. That's a proper groundswell with a 10-second period, and the conditions will be clean. This is the one to circle on the calendar. The afternoon gets a little bumpy with a cross-shore wind, but the swell builds to 7ft and the energy goes even higher to 1240.

Friday the 21st gets bigger, with 8ft in the morning, but the wind picks up from the SSW at 25 km/h, creating a cross-chop. By the afternoon, the wind is honking onshore at 30 km/h with an 12ft swell, and the energy is a massive 2644. That’s not a paddle session; that's kite-surfing territory. The same goes for Saturday the 22nd – huge 12ft swell from the NW in the morning with a clean cross-shore, but the energy is 2433. It's big, raw, and for experts only.

The last few days, from the 23rd to the 25th, see the swell drop back down. Sunday the 23rd has a very long-period 18-second swell from the west, but only 2ft to 3ft. That long period will make it break weirdly straight at the beach. The real final gem looks to be Tuesday the 25th of August morning. Glassy conditions, a 7ft swell from the west, and a very high wave energy of 954. That’s a solid, clean session to end the run.

So, if you have to pick one day, make it Thursday the 20th of August morning at Dumps. It's the best combination of size, clean wind, and strong energy. The Tuesday the 25th morning is a very close second. Keep an eye on the huge days around the 21st and 22nd, but those are for the brave or the kite crew.

Rusty.

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