Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright lads and lasses, let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ at Dumps (Brandon Bay). The next couple of weeks have got some ups and downs, so you’ve gotta pick your battles.

Water temp is running about 63°, which is a touch warmer than usual for the season – a nice little perk.

Right now and through the end of July, it’s lookin’ grim. Strong cross-onshore winds have got the small, weak swells all chopped up. Not worth getting wet. There’s a gap of poor conditions until we hit Saturday, the 1st of August.

Saturday morning is where our best window sits. The swell is still small, around 3ft from the WNW, but the wind goes glassy. Swell energy is weak (106) with a short period, so it won't have much push, but it’ll be clean. This is the standout of the whole outlook—a few fun, waist-high waves with no wind. Just don’t expect it to be firing.

Sunday the 2nd of August keeps the same small, weak energy with a glassy surface, and we see a little more juice (136) from a NNW swell. Still only 3ft to 3ft with a short period. It’s surfable and clean, but very ordinary. For a beginner, this is just fine.

We run into a big lull from Monday the 3rd of August through to the end of the first week, with swells dropping below 2ft. There's a brief moment on Monday and Wednesday mornings with light offshore winds, but the waves are just too small.

Another gap of flat or near-flat conditions lasts until Monday the 10th of August. Then the swell picks up to 5ft to 5ft from the NNW, but the wind is cross-shore and messy. The energy bumps up into the 180 to 200 range, so there's some grunt, but it’s choppy. Not really worth a clean paddle.

The biggest pulse of energy hits around the 12th and 13th of August, with swell holding from 4ft to 5ft out of the NW. The combined energy reads 292, so there’s plenty of power. But it comes with a strong cross-onshore wind, turning the surface into a washing machine. If you’re strong paddler and don’t mind a beating, you might snag a few, but for most, it’s a pass.

The outlook finishes on the 14th of August. Friday morning shows some promise with glassy conditions and a 5ft NW swell (energy 250), though it’s still rated as very ordinary. The afternoon sees the swell building to 5ft from the WNW with a better period (9 seconds), but a light cross-onshore wind creeps in. It’s the best-looking later window, but still a “maybe.”

So, your best call is Saturday the 1st of August in the morning, and keep an eye on that window around the 14th. The direction from the NW is solid for Dumps, but the wind has been the spoiler for most of this stretch.

Rusty.

Read more