Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for Dumps (Brandon Bay). It’s a bit of a slow burner this time, but there’s a light at the end of the tunnel.

The next 16 days start off with a real struggle. The first solid recommendation doesn’t come until the 18th of September. That’s over a week of pretty grim conditions, with strong onshore winds, lumpy chop, and poor surf quality. You’re looking at a gap of about 12 days with nothing worth paddling out for. The water temp is sitting at 63°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t freeze while you’re waiting.

Now, the standout. Friday morning, the 18th of September. That’s the one to circle. Dumps is a fairly exposed spot, and it’s fairly consistent. The swell is coming from the WNW at 6ft, with a solid 11-second period – that’s a proper groundswell with some good energy behind it (combined energy of 711). The wind is light and offshore from the ENE, and the conditions are clean. This is the best on offer by a long shot. The moderate wave energy (711) and clean conditions will make for some fun, punchy waves. It’s an intermediate spot, so you’ll want to be comfortable on a 6ft swell. The offshore breeze will keep the faces smooth. Crowds are possible, but for a morning like this, it’s worth the company.

The waves on the 18th afternoon hold up at 6ft, but the wind swings to a cross-offshore from the north. Still clean, but the morning is the pick.

Saturday the 19th sees a slight drop in size to 4ft from the WNW on the morning, with a light offshore breeze from the ESE and glassy conditions. Perfect for a longer board, but the energy drops off (339). The afternoon gets a bit of a cross-on wind, so stick to the morning session.

Sunday the 20th is another good one. Early morning you’ve got 6ft of WNW swell again, with a 11-second period and glassy conditions – the wind is dead calm from the NE. The water will be like a lake. The combined energy is 661, so there’s some push. That’s a solid second option, but the morning of the 18th still takes the crown.

So, to wrap it up: the first week and a half are a write-off. The 18th of September is the real standout for Dumps, with clean, offshore winds and a nice groundswell. The 20th is also a good look. Don’t bother before that.

Rusty.

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