Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, let's have a look at what's on the cards for Dumps over the coming days. To be straight with you, it's a bit of a slow start. We're looking at a long gap here with hardly anything worth paddling out for from now through most of the month until around the 19th of July. The early days, starting Saturday the 11th, have some swell but the conditions are just ordinary – messy, poor quality. You might see a tiny knee-high wave on Sunday the 12th with a clean look if the wind holds light offshore from the ENE, but it's tiny, just 2 ft of weak WNW swell with very low energy (54). That’s not really going to get the heart racing.

There’s a real dry spell through the middle of the week where it’s either glassy or offshore but the swell just isn't there. We’ve got a few days of flat to ankle-slapping waves until we see a bit of a pulse building.

Now, here’s where it gets a little more interesting. Around the 19th and 20th of July, we start seeing some of that NW groundswell kicking in. Sunday the 19th, the morning looks the pick with a clean 1.3m (4 ft) swell from the WNW, period at 6 seconds though, which is short period windswell. It’s not what you’d call quality, but it’s surfable. The water here at Dumps in Brandon Bay is a touch warmer than normal right now at 62°F, nothing crazy, just a bit above average for this time of year.

The standout for the whole window, and the one to circle on your calendar, is the morning of Monday the 20th. We’ve got a clean 1.3m (4 ft) from the NW. The energy is ramping up with a moderate 156 reading. The wind is light and cross-off from the NE, which should keep the faces pretty tidy. The crowd factor here at Dumps is “sometimes” busy, so you might have a few out, but it’s not a circus.

And then the real treat – or the expert session – rolls in on the 21st of July. Tuesday morning sees a solid 2.1m (7 ft) of NW swell, period up to 8 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to a strong 579. That’s serious power. This is strictly for experienced surfers, though; anything over 8 ft is big and this is right on the edge. The wind is cross from the north, not perfect, but with that much size, Dumps will be handling it. The pick of the bunch is probably the Sunday the 26th of July, where we get 2.2m (7 ft) from the NW, clean with a NNE breeze, and a massive energy reading of 749. That is a proper swell, but again, only for those with their wits about them.

So, in short: there’s a long quiet period through the start. The best bet for a fun, manageable session is the morning of Monday the 20th. For the big-wave crew, the 21st and especially the 26th are the ones to watch. Keep an eye on it, because forecasts can shift, but right now that’s the story at Dumps.

Rusty.

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