Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

First off, I’ll be straight with you – the next week and a half is a bit of a write-off at Dumps (Brandon Bay). We’ve got a long quiet spell here. The water is sitting at 64°F which is much warmer than you’d expect for this time of year, a real anomaly of 4°F above average. That’s the only unusual thing about it, because the surf is just flat-lining.

From Saturday the 18th right through to the end of July, it’s a struggle. We’re looking at tiny, weak waves bouncing around between 1ft and 4ft, mostly from the NNW or WNW. The combined energy is pathetic – we’re talking values like 77 (weak), 33 (weak), 40 (weak). The wind is often cross or cross-off, which keeps the surface clean, but there’s just no push behind it. The swell periods are short, mostly 6 to 9 seconds, so the waves are just gutless. It’s all being labelled as “poor surf conditions” or “surfable but very ordinary.” There’s nothing to get excited about.

Then we hit the 25th of July and things start to change. Saturday morning the 25th brings a pulse of 8ft from the NW with a period of 9 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 826 (strong). That’s a proper swell. Now, the catch is the wind is cross-on from the WNW at 9 mph, so it’ll be a bit lumpy and choppy. At 8ft, this is getting into the territory where beginners should think twice – it’s really for the intermediate crew. The afternoon drops to 7ft but stays cross-on and choppy. This is the standout window, but it’s not clean.

The 27th of July (Monday) keeps the swell going at 6ft from the WNW, 8 seconds, but the wind is onshore or cross-on, so the quality is still poor. The 28th drops to 5ft, and the 29th to 4ft, all with the same messy wind story. The true standout here is that Saturday morning the 25th for the size, but don’t expect perfection.

Looking further ahead into the first week of August, it settles back down. The 1st of August (Saturday) morning is worth a mention: glassy conditions, 4ft from the WNW at 9 seconds. The energy is 193 (moderate). It’s still only a “surfable” rating, but glassy is glassy, and you might snag a clean little wave. After that, it’s back to the small stuff.

So, bottom line: the first ten days are a dud. The only real hope is the swell that arrives on the 25th of July through the 27th, but you’ll need to accept some wind chop. If you’re a kiter, the conditions on the 25th and 27th with that strong wind and size will look a lot more interesting than for us paddle surfers.

Rusty.

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