Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what Brandon Bay’s got cookin’ for us.

Right off the bat, the water temp is sitting at 64°, which is a solid 4° warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s a real treat for the skin, no doubt about it. It’s not often you get that kind of anomaly, so enjoy it while it lasts.

As for the surf, we’ve got a 16-day window here, but I’m not gonna lie to you – it’s a pretty grim stretch for Dumps. The first week is mostly flat and ugly. We’ll see a few tiny pulses, like on Tuesday the 21st, where there’s a small 2ft swell from the NNW with a weak 6-second period and clean conditions in the morning. The combined swell energy is only a piddly 66, so you’re hunting for knee-high slop. It's surfable, but I wouldn't be waxing up just yet. Crowds are a “sometimes” thing here, but with waves this small, you’ll have the place to yourself.

Then we hit a proper dry spell from Wednesday the 23rd through to Friday the 24th, with swell barely reaching 2ft, and the energy dropping into the 20s and 60s. The wind is never fully offshore either – it's mostly cross or cross-on, which keeps things messy.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting but frustrating. Saturday the 25th kicks up. Wind is on it from the West, but the swell jumps. Saturday morning sees a 3ft NW swell with an 11-second period and 289 combined energy, and by the afternoon it’s pumping up to 6ft from the same direction, period at 11 seconds, and the energy rockets to 794. That’s a proper jump, but it’s blown out. The wind is onshore straight out of the west, which is going to chop it up bad. The wave comment says it all: “poor surf conditions.” This swell has some grunt, but the quality just isn’t there.

Sunday the 26th actually pushes into the 7ft range from the NW, and the period drops to 9 seconds. With that onshore wind, and the energy at 719, this is big, lumpy, and messy. At over 7ft, this is expert-only territory, and honestly, with the wind howling on it, this setup looks way more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer. Same story carries into Monday and Tuesday – lots of size, 6ft to 8ft, energy in the 700 to 1500 range, but always with cross or onshore winds. It’s frustrating because the potential is there, but we can’t get a clean day out of it.

By the time we get to Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st, the wind is up to 18 mph from the WNW, and it’s still onshore or cross-onshore. Waves are hovering around 6ft to 7ft, but it’s a lumpy, bumpy mess. Not worth paddling out for.

The very end of the window, August 3rd, gives us a last little whisper: a 2ft groundswell from the West with an 11-second period. The morning is clean with a cross-off NNE breeze at 9 mph, and the energy is a weak 111. It’s surfable but very ordinary. A bit of a whimper after all that blown-out size.

Overall, there’s no standout day here, mates. The first week is tiny, and the second week has size but gets hammered by the wind. The only real brief highlight would be that small clean window on Tuesday morning the 21st – 2ft, NNW, clean – if you’re desperate for a slide. Otherwise, we wait.

Rusty.

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