Dumps (Brandon Bay) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cooking for Dumps in Brandon Bay over the next couple of weeks. I’m not gonna lie to you, it’s a bit of a rough start, but there might be a glimmer of hope if you can wait it out.

The overall pattern is messy for a long stretch. We’ve got a lot of wind and chop mucking things up before a cleaner window finally arrives. You’ll want to sit on your hands for the first week and a half, because it’s mostly a write-off until Monday the 21st of September.

Looking at the first few days, it’s a bit of a sad story. Saturday the 12th has some decent energy in the water with a combined swell energy of 1656, showing a 7ft swell from the WNW, but the cross-on wind is 9 mph, leaving it fairly choppy and marginal. Not worth paddling out for. Sunday the 13th drops off in size, with a 5ft NW swell in the morning and a 4ft in the afternoon, still crossed up with light wind ripples. The energy is dropping fast – 693 and 424. It’s not good.

Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th are poor to hopeless. On Monday, rain and a moderate cross-shore wind with 12 mph on a 3ft swell is a no-go. By Tuesday, the wind jumps to 16 mph from the WNW, cranking onshore with a 7ft swell that’s just blown out. That keeps up through the week. We get some big swell events – Wednesday the 16th has a 8ft, Thursday the 17th pushes 10ft and then 12ft, Friday the 18th hits 12ft with a 14-second period (long period groundswell), and the weekend of the 19th and 20th sees 13ft to 15ft monsters. But every single one of these days has strong onshore or cross-onshore winds, 16 to 25 mph. Energy values are through the roof – up to 6759 – but it’s all just stormy, lumpy, and unsurfable. That big, long-period groundswell is a real tease, but with that wind, it’s just a washing machine. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Then, finally, a change on Monday the 21st of September. A 8ft swell from the NW with a 13-second period rolls in, and the wind swings to a light SSE at 9 mph, giving us a clean, cross-offshore flow. The combined energy is still solid at 1676. The guidance says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers,” and this is the one standout in the whole forecast. The water temperature is about 61°, which is a touch warmer than normal for the time of year, so you might get away with a thinner wetsuit. Dumps is a fairly exposed spot and rates as fairly consistent, and with a NW swell direction matching the optimum, this Monday morning window is your best bet. Keep in mind, the period is over 11 seconds, so those sets will have some punch and gaps between them – good for a paddle out.

After that, it fades again. Tuesday the 22nd is back to cross-on winds and dropping energy, and by Friday the 25th the swell is down to a weak 3ft with a 11-second period showing just 232 combined energy. The last few days of the forecast are tiny, with nothing over 1ft and next to no energy. A total fade-out.

So, to sum it up: don’t bother for the first 9 days. The only real window is Monday morning the 21st of September at Dumps. It looks clean, solid, and well-shaped for experienced surfers. After that, the surf disappears again.

Rusty.

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