Choshi Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it.

The next couple of weeks are a real mixed bag, and honestly, the opening stretch is pretty bleak. We’re looking at a slow start with nothing worth getting wet for, but there’s a big pulse of energy coming through the middle of the period that’s going to be something else. Just gotta be smart about it.

Starting off, Monday the 14th is basically a washout. There’s some small, weak swell pushing in from the ESE, only around 3ft, but the wind is a messy cross-shore breeze and the surf is just lumpy and poor. Nothing doing. The energy is weak at 398, and the water’s sitting at 77°, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year. It’s a non-event.

Tuesday the 15th shows a little more life, with the swell picking up to 4ft and the period stretching out to 14 seconds, giving it some decent push. The combined energy jumps to 782, which is more moderate, but the morning still has that cross-shore wind. The standout is Tuesday afternoon though. The wind drops right out, going glassy, and the waves are clean at 4ft. That’s the first real window, and it’s a good one, even if it’s not huge.

Then we hit a rough patch. Wednesday the 16th and Thursday the 17th get blown out by a fresh NE wind. The swell stays around the 3ft mark, but it’s crossed up and poor. The energy dips back down, and Thursday sees a weird spike in size to 6ft but with a terrible period of 7 seconds. That’s just messy, crumbly junk. There’s a gap in any decent surf here for a few days.

Friday the 18th and Saturday the 19th are where things start to get serious, but it’s a double-edged sword. The swell builds steadily, and Saturday the 19th delivers a solid 10ft of ESE groundswell with a 14-second period. The energy reading is massive at 3603. The wind is a clean cross-off, and the conditions are favorable. But here’s the catch – at 10ft, this is way too big for the break, and it’s only going to be for the experts that know what they’re doing. The guidance is clear: it’s too big. The wave quality is there, but it’s a beast.

Sunday the 20th backs off a touch, but it’s still a solid 8ft to 8ft, with strong energy readings around 1647-2070. The wind is clean, but the tide is questionable, so it’s marginal. The following Monday and Tuesday, the 21st and 22nd, keep that pumping. We’re seeing 7ft to 8ft with some SSE direction mixed in, and the energy is still very strong at 2690 and 3088. The break is handling it, but conditions remain marginal.

Now, for the standout. Looking at the whole period, it’s hard to ignore that Saturday the 19th through Tuesday the 22nd. The best bet is probably Monday the 21st afternoon and Tuesday the 22nd morning. The swell is still big, but backing off a bit, and the wind is a moderate cross-off keeping things clean. The energy is in that very strong range, and the direction is favorable. But remember, this is all well overhead, so it’s not a day for the beginners. It’s powerful, grinding, and definitely one for the experienced crew.

After that, it just fades out quickly. From Wednesday the 23rd, the wind swings around south and brings in rain and choppy onshores. The swell drops off a cliff, getting down to 1ft to 1ft by the weekend. The energy readings drop to below 100, which is just flat and weak. The last few days of the period are pretty much unsurfable, with poor conditions and small, messy waves.

So, to sum it up: there’s a killer window from Saturday the 19th through Tuesday the 22nd with some serious size and clean offshore winds, but it’s not for everyone. Before that and after that, you’re going to be scratching for anything rideable. Hang tight, pick your moment, and don’t get caught out by the size.

Rusty out.

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