Chapadmalal Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Yo, Rusty here, checkin' in from the coast. We've got a real mixed bag on our hands for the next sixteen days, so let's break it down.

The immediate outlook is a bit of a write-off, I gotta be honest. Starting today, Saturday the 12th, through to early next week, we're battling some serious onshore wind and messy conditions. The wave energy is there – moderate to strong with readings of 702 and 1035 – but it's all cross-on and choppy. The water is sitting at 51°F, which feels a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. Don't waste your time paddling out now; it's just frustrating out there.

Things start to settle on Sunday the 13th. Early morning we get a clean-up with a light offshore, swinging through the cross-off wind on a 4ft S swell. The energy drops to a moderate 346, but those clean conditions make it surfable. That afternoon the wind shifts, and the quality drops right off again. Monday the 14th has a similar story with a tiny 2ft swell and clean, but very weak conditions.

We hit a bit of a lull from there, with barely anything worth mentioning for a few days. Then, on Wednesday the 16th, the swell bumps up again. The morning shows 5ft from the SSE with a moderate energy of 425, but it's cross-shore. The afternoon looks better though – 5ft, cross-off wind, and a higher energy of 595. It's not perfect, but it's the first real chance for a surf.

But here's the real story, the one you're really waiting for. Later in the period, around Tuesday the 22nd through Thursday the 24th, the ocean just goes nuts. I'm talking massive, heavy groundswell. The energy readings are insane – 2291, 5260, and then a huge 13030 on Wednesday the 23rd. We're looking at 10ft to 16ft SSW and SSE swells, with a very long period of 14 to 16 seconds. The wind forecast is favorable, often offshore or cross-off. Now, this is a huge caveat: for a point break like Chapadmalal, these conditions are way, way too powerful. This is expert-only territory. It's absolutely bombing, but it's a monster that could eat you alive. A swell this size and with such a long period will be breaking hard and heavy, so only the most experienced chargers should even think about it. The sweet spot here will be for guys who know what they're doing, and even then, I'd be watching for a long time.

After that pulse fades, we do get a window of access on Friday the 25th morning. The swell drops to a much more manageable 5ft from the SE, still with that nice long period of 13 seconds, and offshore winds. The energy is back down to a moderate 722. This could offer some of the best waves of the whole run, with clean conditions and real shape on offer.

So my final call? The absolute standout is that Friday the 25th morning session. The conditions will be clean, the swell is a good size with proper period, and it won't be the washing machine that the earlier part of the week will be. For the brave, that huge swell from the 22nd to the 24th is a spectacle, but it's about as far from a beginner wave as you can get. The rest of the forecast has some small windows, but nothing else comes close.

Rusty, out.

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