Chapadmalal Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up for us at Chapadmalal. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, but we’ve got a few moments worth keeping an eye on.

The water is sitting at 51° right now, which is a solid 4° warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s a nice little bonus.

Looking at the whole 16-day window, the first week is pretty grim. From Saturday the 18th through to the end of the week, we’ve got a run of poor surf conditions. The swell is small, the wind is mostly onshore or cross-on, and it’s just not worth paddling out. There’s a gap of no real options until Tuesday the 21st.

Tuesday morning the 21st is the first flicker of hope. The wind goes glassy, and we’ve got a tiny 2ft S swell with a period of 8 seconds. The combined energy is weak (82), so it’s not going to be anything special, but it’s surfable and clean. You might get a few fun little ones if you’re on a foamy.

We get another clean window on Thursday the 23rd afternoon. The wind swings offshore from the WNW at 15 mph, which is a big positive. The swell is still small, around 2ft from the S, but the clean conditions will make it feel better than it looks. The energy is low (95) though.

Then things start to get interesting, but not necessarily in a good way. On Wednesday the 29th, the swell jumps up. The afternoon shows a 7ft S swell with a period of 8 seconds, and the combined energy is strong at 560. The wind is cross-on, which is a shame, but the real problem is that the swell is too big for this point break. It’s predicted to be too much.

Thursday the 30th morning is even bigger. We’re looking at a 7ft S swell with a period of 11 seconds, and the energy is very strong at 1106. The wind is a light cross-shore, but again, the forecast says it’s too big for this break. This is expert-only territory, and even then, it’s going to be a handful.

The real standout, the one that gets my blood pumping, is Saturday the 1st of August. In the afternoon, we get a 7ft E swell with a period of 8 seconds, and the energy is very strong at 1062. But the wind? It’s glassy. Absolutely flat calm. That’s a recipe for perfect, clean waves. However, the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. So, if you’re a seasoned charger, this might be the one. If you’re a beginner, stay well clear. It’s a long way out, so keep an eye on the forecasts.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a write-off. The second week has a few clean, small days, but the real potential is on the 29th and 30th, and especially the 1st of August, where the size is serious. If you’re a beginner, this isn’t your window. If you’re an expert, the 1st of August with glassy conditions could be absolutely epic.

Rusty.

Read more