Chapadmalal Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let's get into it. I'm looking at the 16-day window for Chapadmalal, and I gotta be straight with you – it's a tough stretch. There are gaps, there's wind, and the swell is mostly messy. Let's break it down.

For the next week or so, it's pretty grim. The water is sitting at 51°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that's little comfort when the conditions are this poor. We've got a moderate wave energy through the start (462 combined energy units), but that swell is coming from the ESE, which isn't ideal for the point, and the wind is onshore. The whole weekend and into Monday is a write-off for any decent surf.

There's a short window of opportunity around Tuesday the 14th. It's not a standout, but it's the best on offer. On Tuesday afternoon, we see a clean, offshore wind from the NNW at 16 mph. The swell is small, only 3ft from the E with a short period of 10 seconds, and the energy is moderate (158 units). It's surfable, but very ordinary. That's the closest we get to something rideable in the first week.

Then there's another gap. From Wednesday the 15th through to Tuesday the 22nd, it's all poor surf conditions. Cross-onshore winds, choppy water, and swell that just doesn't have any shape to it. On Monday the 20th, the swell bumps up to 6ft from the S, but it's accompanied by 22 mph onshore winds – that's going to be a washing machine.

For the second week, things look slightly more promising but still uncertain. On Wednesday the 22nd, we get strong cross-offshore winds from the WNW at 28 mph, cleaning up a 4ft swell from the SE. The energy is moderate (273 units). It's windy, but it'll be clean. The real highlight, if it holds, comes on Thursday the 23rd. Thursday afternoon is looking glassy with a WSW breeze at only 3 mph. The swell is a tiny 4ft from the ENE with a very short period of 6 seconds (weak energy, 165 units). It's not powerful, but glassy conditions at Chapadmalal point can make even small waves fun. The swell direction isn't great, but the wind is perfect.

Given the long stretches of poor conditions, and that the best we're seeing is marginal, this is a spot that's suffering a blank run. It's not unusual for the area to have periods like this. If you're a kitesurfer, the strong cross-onshore days around the 21st might look interesting, but for a paddle surfer, it's mostly a waiting game.

Stay patient, and keep an eye on that Thursday the 23rd – it's the only real glimmer.

Rusty.

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