Chapadmalal Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s cut through the noise and look at what this stretch has in store for us at Chapadmalal. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, to be honest. We’ve got a fair bit of waiting to do, but there are a couple of windows that could definitely get the heart rate up.

The next week and a half look pretty bleak, to be straight with you. Through the 21st, we are looking at small, weak surf with poor winds. The energy is just not there, with readings mostly in the double digits and low hundreds (148, 223), and a lot of those days are cross or cross-on. Not worth suiting up for. The swell is small, often under 3ft, and those easterly directions are just not doing anything for the point. The 20th, it's clean but gutless—you'd be paddling for nothing.

Then things get proper messy. Around the 21st and 22nd, we see the swell start to build, but it comes with a whole lot of wind. We're talking fresh to near-gale strength cross-shore winds and heavy cross-chop, with the energy jumping up into the strong range (836, 952). The surf gets up to 6ft to 7ft, but it’s going to be a war zone out there. This is less about surfing and more about survival, or possibly a kite session if you're into that sort of punishment.

Now, for the one true standout in this whole run. Mark your calendars for the morning of Sunday, August 23rd. The forecast shows the swell is up around 7ft from the S, and while the wind is a cross, the energy reading is massive at 1829. That’s a strong, powerful swell. The file even notes that wind and tide are favorable, but the size might be too much for this break. At over 7ft, this is heading into expert territory for sure. A big S swell like that will be hitting the point with some serious intent, but the cross wind could make it a bit of a battle. It’s a standout for size and power, no doubt.

After that, the swell backs down but the conditions improve. Monday afternoon, August 24th looks like the pick of the week. We're looking at 5ft of S swell, clean, with a glassy wind state (5 km/h) and a good energy reading of 629. This feels like the window where it all comes together. The swell direction is SSE, which is pretty much right in the sweet spot for Chapadmalal's optimum SSE direction. It should offer some proper, clean point-break waves. I'd be getting excited for this one.

The rest of the run slides back into the mediocre zone. The last week of August and into September just doesn't have the same punch. There's a long stretch with barely a ripple of energy, and we’re back into the small, weak category (326, 197, 121). The wind on the 27th morning is glassy, but the swell is just a pulse, not worth the paddle.

So, the long and short of it: get through the early junk, be ready for the big, gnarly groundswell on the 23rd if you're an expert, and save your energy for that clean, glassy Monday afternoon on the 24th. That’s the one. The rest is just filling in time. Patience, friends.

Rusty, signing off.

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