Cap Sim Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what the next couple of weeks are serving up for us. I’m gonna be straight with you – it’s a pretty bleak stretch for Cap Sim, and we’ve got a long gap before anything worth paddling out for shows up.

Overall, the pattern is poor. We’ve got a big block of onshore and cross-off winds that are just trashing the surf. For the first week, from Saturday the 5th right through to the end of the following week, there’s hardly a window to get a decent wave. The combined swell energy is mostly weak to moderate, with readings hitting 39 on the Saturday, bumping up to a moderate 236 on Sunday afternoon, but the wind is just wrong. The water temperature on Saturday morning is reading a very unusual 64°, a massive 7° colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want a thick suit if you’re even thinking about it.

Monday the 7th morning is the one tiny standout in this first week. We get a clean 2 ft swell from the WNW with a light 10 km/h offshore wind from the NE. The combined swell energy is moderate in the 449 range, and it’s the only time we see a “good surf conditions” tag. That’s your only real chance for a clean wave in this first block, but it’s short-lived. By the afternoon, the wind swings and the quality drops off. After that, we’re looking at a brutal run of strong winds (35-45 km/h) and building, messy swell that gets up to 7 ft by Wednesday the 9th afternoon, which is expert-only territory and blown out anyway.

There’s a serious gap in any real quality after that. The next time we get a glimmer of hope is Saturday the 12th morning, with another clean setup – a 5 ft swell from the N with light 10 km/h offshore winds from the NNE and combined energy at 316. This could offer some fun, punchy waves, but by the afternoon it’s cross-on and turning ordinary again. From that point, it’s back to a steady diet of poor conditions and marginal surf right through to the 20th. The swell stays small and weak, with energy dropping to as low as 40 by the 18th, and the wind is either cross-off or onshore.

If you’re a beginner, the 5 ft+ days on the 8th, 9th, 11th, and 12th mornings are going to be beyond your comfort zone. For the experienced crew, the window is narrow – that Monday the 7th morning is your best bet by a long shot, offering the cleanest conditions and a long-period, 15-second groundswell from the WNW that will wrap in nicely to this reef setup. Keep an eye on the 12th morning too, but it’s a smaller, shorter-period N swell (8 sec) and the consistency is likely to be patchy.

Hang in there. Sometimes you get a run like this. It’s not worth forcing it.

Rusty.

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