Cap Sim Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, I’m gonna be straight with you. Cap Sim is going to be a tough beat for the next couple of weeks. What we’ve got here is a lot of wind and not much quality surf.

For the first stretch, right from Wednesday the 15th through to the 24th, it’s pretty much a write-off. Sure, there’s swell in the water, but it’s all blown out by a strong, cross-off wind that’s just not letting up. The wave energy is weak to moderate, with the combined energy in the low hundreds (8 to 504) — nothing to get excited about. The swell direction is mostly N or NNE, which is okay for the break, but the wind is ruining it. The water temperature is 69°F, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first hint of something changing comes on the 25th, but it’s not good news. The wind cranks up to a near gale (31 mph) from the NNE, blowing straight offshore. That’s clean, sure, but it’s going to be a nightmare to paddle out. The swell is 5 ft, short period (7 seconds), and combined energy is still low (196). This is expert-only territory, and even then, it’s a battle.

The same goes for the 26th, with strong offshore winds (28 mph) and clean but hard-to-paddle conditions. The swell is 5 ft to 6 ft, still short period. Not a good time for a beginner.

Things get interesting around the 27th and 28th. The swell picks up to 8 ft to 8 ft, but the wind is howling at 28 to 31 mph, cross-off. The combined energy jumps into the strong range (647 to 773). This is big, powerful, and messy. It’s strictly for experts, and even then, it’s going to be a grunt. The period is still short (8 seconds), so it’s a windswell, not a groundswell — it’ll be lumpy and raw.

The only glimmer of hope comes at the tail end, on the 29th and 30th of July. The wind finally drops. On the 29th, we’ve got a moderate breeze (16 mph), still cross-off, but the swell holds at 7 ft to 8 ft, with a period of 8 seconds. The combined energy is strong (534 to 596). The forecast is “marginal,” but it’s a step up. Then on the 30th, the wind eases further to a gentle breeze (9 mph) from the NNE, cross-off, and the swell sits at 8 ft, with a period of 8 seconds. The combined energy is 734 to 753. This is the best it’s going to get in the whole window. It’s still big and powerful, and the period is short, so it’s going to be a bit unruly, but the cleaner conditions will make it rideable for the experienced crew.

Honestly, there’s no standout session here. The 30th is the best on offer, but it’s still a long way off and a bit of a gamble. If you’re an expert and you’re desperate, that’s the day to watch. For everyone else, this is a 16-day window to do something else. The wind is just relentless.

Rusty.

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