
Surf Forecasts:
Blacks Reef surf forecast from 19 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 21 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 15s period, S swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 20 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 19s period, S swell with 5,059 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 21 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 15s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Blacks Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Blacks Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 21) at 3PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.0m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 11s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Blacks Reef in the next 16 days are 2.5m 19s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 20) at 9PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.7m 3s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 26) at 3AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3PM (Tue 21st Jul) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 3PM (Tue 21st Jul) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 9PM (Mon 20th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 19s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Blacks Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here, let’s talk about what’s on the menu for the next couple of weeks.
We’ve got a solid run of Southern Ocean groundswell coming through, but it’s not a straightforward call. The standout is Blacks Reef, a reef break that’s very consistent and exposed to the south. The water is sitting at 55°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so don’t forget the booties. The real action kicks off Sunday the 19th with a clean 7 ft south swell and a very long 18-second period, but the wind is light and cross, so it won't be glassy perfection. The afternoon turns onshore and messy, so Sunday morning is the pick of that day.
Monday the 20th is a write-off with onshore wind and a marginal 6 ft to 8 ft south swell. Tuesday the 21st shows a major improvement. The morning is clean with a light cross breeze and a 7 ft south swell (16 seconds), but the real gem is Tuesday afternoon: glassy conditions, a clean 7 ft south swell with a 15-second period, and the combined energy is a solid 1796 (moderate-to-strong). That’s the best you’ll see all week—smooth, powerful, and begging for a late session.
The swell drops through Wednesday and Thursday the 22nd and 23rd, with the waves getting smaller and cleaner. Wednesday morning has 4 ft of south swell with glassy conditions but the energy is weak (529). Thursday is tiny, under 3 ft. Friday the 24th is flat and not worth the paddle.
The weekend of the 25th and 26th blows out with strong cross-onshore winds and lumpy seas. A big 10 ft south swell hits Monday the 27th, but with 25 mph onshore wind, it’s a complete mess—only for the kamikaze crew or kite surfers.
Now, here’s the real promise. Tuesday the 28th is the standout of the entire outlook. Morning starts with a clean 10 ft south swell (13 seconds) and a light cross-offshore breeze. The afternoon turns glassy, dead calm, and the swell stays at 10 ft with very long period (13 seconds) and a combined energy of 2850 (strong). That’s big, powerful, and clean—expert territory only. Wednesday the 29th is still excellent, with 7 ft dropping to 6 ft, clean and glassy conditions, and lighter energy. The rest of the run into the first week of August fades to small, clean, and mostly ordinary surf, with the next pulse of 8 ft to 13 ft south swell arriving on Monday the 3rd of August, but it’s predicted to be too big for this break, with strong onshore winds ruining the shape.
Bottom line: your best windows are Tuesday afternoon the 21st for a glassy, solid south swell, and Tuesday the 28th for the biggest, cleanest, most powerful groundswell of the run. That Tuesday the 28th is the one to circle on the calendar.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Sun morning, min 8°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu afternoon, min 8°C on Wed night). Winds increasing (calm on Wed morning, fresh winds from the W by Fri night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 18 | S 17 | S 16 | S 15 | S 19 | S 18 | S 16 | S 15 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | S 12 | S 11 | S 13 | SSW 11 | S 10 | S 9 | SE 11 | SW 7 | SSW 8 | SE 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
2796 | 2373 | 1452 | 1415 | 3752 | 4586 | 2374 | 1699 | 905 | 501 | 342 | 292 | 163 | 86 | 37 | 17 | 26 | 19 | 178 | 201 | 208 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross | on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross | glassy | cross-off | glassy | glassy | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross |
High Tide | 9:27AM1.75m | 9:50PM1.81m | 10:17AM1.72m | 10:42PM1.74m | 11:07AM1.68m | 11:33PM1.68m | 11:59AM1.65m | 00:24AM1.62m | 12:54PM1.62m | 1:14AM1.58m | 1:46PM1.61m | 2:03AM1.55m | 2:36PM1.59m | 2:51AM1.51m | |||||||
Low Tide | 3:36PM0.13m | 4:12AM0.14m | 4:30PM0.21m | 5:02AM0.20m | 5:23PM0.29m | 5:51AM0.28m | 6:15PM0.36m | 6:39AM0.36m | 7:08PM0.42m | 7:27AM0.42m | 8:00PM0.47m | 8:15AM0.47m | 8:50PM0.50m | ||||||||
7:22 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | |
— | 5:07 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:08 | — | — | 5:09 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:12 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 13 |
Feels °C | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 18 | S 17 | S 16 | S 15 | S 19 | S 18 | S 16 | S 15 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | S 12 | S 11 | S 11 | ENE 4 | S 10 | S 9 | S 9 | SE 13 | SSW 8 | SSW 8 |
2796 | 2373 | 1452 | 1415 | 3752 | 4586 | 2374 | 1699 | 905 | 501 | 342 | 292 | 163 | 64 | 7 | 17 | 26 | 14 | 27 | 201 | 94 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 13 | SE 13 | SE 12 | SE 12 | SE 12 | SE 11 | SE 11 | SE 11 | SE 11 | SE 10 | SE 11 | SE 10 | SE 11 | S 13 | SSW 11 | ENE 7 | ENE 5 | NE 5 | E 8 | SE 17 | SE 16 |
488 | 363 | 244 | 169 | 167 | 130 | 97 | 97 | 56 | 28 | 29 | 15 | 30 | 86 | 37 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 101 | 208 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | S 19 | ESE 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ESE 12 | S 12 | SE 11 | SSE 10 | SSW 9 | ESE 11 | SE 11 | S 15 | S 14 | SSW 16 |
— | — | — | 434 | 174 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14 | 3 | 30 | 22 | 8 | 11 | 19 | 18 | 4 | 53 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | SSW 5 | S 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NE 4 | NE 3 | NNW 2 | NW 3 | N 3 | WSW 3 | SW 7 | NW 3 | NNW 3 |
— | 50 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 178 | 5 | 6 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 3 | 91 | 9 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 82 | 419 | 458 | 41 | 33 | 446 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Blacks Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Blacks Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Blacks Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Blacks Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Blacks Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Blacks Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Blacks Reef is 50 km (31 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










