Blacks Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

We’ve only got one spot on the cards for the next couple of weeks: Blacks Reef. Don’t get too excited just yet, because for the first few days, it’s pretty quiet. You’re looking at small, weak swell from the south, with combined wave energy barely cracking 100 early on. The water’s sitting at 55°F, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year – no major surprises there.

Friday the 4th and Saturday the 5th are nothing to write home about. Tiny waves, 2ft to 2ft, with short periods, and the wind is all over the place. It’s not blown out, but it’s not clean either. Just small, messy, and frustrating. Sunday the 6th tries to pick up a bit with a longer period groundswell from the SSW, but the height drops to 1ft in the afternoon, so even though the energy bumps up to 129, you’re still mostly looking at closeouts. Monday the 7th has some clean-ish offshore mornings with 0.9ft waves, but honestly, that’s a pool toy kind of day.

Tuesday the 8th and Wednesday the 9th are a mixed bag. Swell picks up Wednesday morning with 6ft at 9 seconds from the south, pushing energy to 569, but the wind is cross-onshore, making for lumpy conditions. Not great, but there’s a bit more push. Thursday the 10th is the first real glimpse of hope – glassy conditions, 3ft, clean, but still small. A longboarder’s dream, maybe.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The 16th of September... hold onto your board. Wednesday afternoon sees a massive 13ft S swell rolling in with a 16-second period, and the energy reading is an insane 8448. The problem? It’s too big for Blacks Reef. The forecast flat out says it. This is expert-only territory, and even then, it could be a washing machine. The wind is light and onshore, but the sheer size makes this a “watch from the cliff” kind of day.

The true standout? Thursday morning, September 17th. This is the one. The swell drops to a still-chunky 10ft from the south, with a 14-second period, and it goes glassy – zero wind. The energy is still massive at 3617. This is the kind of day you call in sick for. Blacks Reef is an exposed reef break; it takes that long-period south groundswell beautifully. These waves will have power, shape, and clean faces. It’s for experienced surfers only, no question. The optimum swell direction here is south, and that’s exactly what you’re getting. Expect a crowd – it’s “often” busy, and with conditions like this, it’ll be a local’s lineup.

Friday the 18th and Saturday the 19th ease off but still offer solid waves. Friday morning has 5ft, 11-second south swell, clean, with light offshore winds. Saturday afternoon on the 19th is a nice capper: 4ft but with a 14-second period and light offshore winds, producing excellent, clean waves for experienced surfers.

So bottom line: the first week is a write-off. Small, weak, and average. But hold out for the 17th. That’s your day. Glassy, solid south swell, and a reef setup that’ll love it. Just make sure you’re ready for the size.

Rusty.

Read more