
Surf Forecasts:
Blacks Reef surf forecast from 21 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 27 Jul, 6PM (local time) - 18ft (5.5m), 12s period, S swell with onshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 27 Jul, 6PM (local time) - 18ft (5.5m), 12s period, S swell with 8,402 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 22 Jul, 12AM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 13s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Blacks Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Blacks Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 22) at 12AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 11s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Blacks Reef in the next 16 days are 5.5m 12s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 27) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.4m 7s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 25) at 6AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 12AM (Wed 22nd Jul) | 5ft (1.6m) 13s |
| Best Surf | 6PM (Mon 27th Jul) | 18ft (5.5m) 12s |
| Most Powerful | 6PM (Mon 27th Jul) | 18ft (5.5m) 12s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Blacks Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the table for this stretch.
First up, we've got a bit of a wait on our hands. The surf is pretty quiet for the first few days, with nothing really worth paddling out for until we get into the end of the first week. Hang tight, it’s not a total write-off.
The real standout window is shaping up for Wednesday, the 22nd of July. The morning session is where it's at. We’re looking at a clean 4ft S swell with a solid 12-second period, and the wind is dead glassy. That’s the kind of morning you set your alarm for. The water temp is sitting at 55°, which is a bit colder than the norm for this time of year, so you’ll want a decent wetsuit. The afternoon holds a smaller 4ft S swell, still glassy, but the morning is the pick for sure.
Thursday morning, the 23rd, is also worth a look. The swell drops to 3ft from the S, but it’s got a clean offshore wind from the N. It’s a smaller day, but clean and fun if you’re on the right board.
Now, heads up. The weekend and into the following week gets messy. Saturday the 25th afternoon sees a 30 km/h onshore wind from the SSW and rain, turning the place into a washing machine. Sunday the 26th has a bigger 8ft S swell, but it’s cross-on and choppy, so don’t expect any beauty.
Then we get a big spike. On Monday the 27th, a massive 16ft S swell with 12-second period blows in, but it’s accompanied by strong onshore winds. That’s going to be a dangerous, blown-out mess. That’s kite-surfing territory, not paddle surfing.
The next potential window shows up on Tuesday the 28th of July. The swell is a solid 8ft from the SE, with a long 14-second period, and the wind is a light cross-shore. It’s a big, powerful groundswell. The energy is strong, with a value of 4904, but the wind is a little dicey. This one is for experienced surfers only, as it’s over 8ft and the quality is marginal.
Looking further ahead, the forecast gets interesting again. On Tuesday, the 4th of August, the models are showing a massive 16ft S swell with glassy conditions. The combined energy is a massive 7090, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. That’s a monster, and it’s only for the top-tier crew if they can find a channel. The wind is glassy, which is a tease.
The follow-up on Wednesday, the 5th of August, is more of the same: 15ft S swell with a cross-shore breeze. The energy is still through the roof at 5197, but again, it’s a huge, powerful swell that’s too big for this spot. It’s a promising sign for the long-range, but take it with a grain of salt.
To sum it up, the best bet is the Wednesday 22nd and Thursday 23rd mornings for clean, fun waves. Everything else is either blown out, too big, or too small. Keep your eyes on the long-range for the 4th and 5th of August, but that’s a big wave game for the brave.
Rusty, signing off.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Thu afternoon, min 7°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 12mm), heaviest on Fri night. Very mild (max 16°C on Fri afternoon, min 8°C on Sun afternoon). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SSW on Sat afternoon, light winds from the S by Sun afternoon). | |||||||||||||||||||
Tue 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | Monday 27 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 15 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | SSW 10 | S 10 | S 9 | E 12 | E 11 | ESE 11 | SSW 8 | S 9 | S 8 | SSW 8 | S 10 | S 12 | S 12 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
1699 | 905 | 501 | 342 | 326 | 184 | 75 | 34 | 30 | 27 | 46 | 157 | 205 | 706 | 678 | 822 | 1156 | 4159 | 7137 | 7158 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-off | glassy | glassy | cross-off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross-off | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | cross-on |
High Tide | 11:33PM1.68m | 11:59AM1.65m | 00:24AM1.62m | 12:54PM1.62m | 1:14AM1.58m | 1:46PM1.61m | 2:03AM1.55m | 2:36PM1.59m | 2:51AM1.51m | 3:22PM1.58m | 3:37AM1.48m | 4:08PM1.56m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 5:23PM0.29m | 5:51AM0.28m | 6:15PM0.36m | 6:39AM0.36m | 7:08PM0.42m | 7:27AM0.42m | 8:00PM0.47m | 8:15AM0.47m | 8:50PM0.50m | 9:04AM0.48m | 9:37PM0.50m | 9:53AM0.48m | 10:23PM0.49m | |||||||
— | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | |
5:08 | — | — | 5:09 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:12 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:14 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 2 | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 6 |
Feels °C | 9 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 15 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | ENE 5 | ENE 6 | ENE 7 | E 12 | E 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | ESE 12 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | ESE 14 | ESE 15 | SE 14 |
1699 | 905 | 501 | 342 | 326 | 184 | 75 | 15 | 14 | 18 | 46 | 157 | 205 | 209 | 179 | 472 | 581 | 1005 | 1158 | 1836 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 11 | SE 11 | SE 10 | SE 11 | SE 12 | SE 11 | SSE 11 | SSW 10 | S 10 | S 9 | E 8 | NE 7 | SE 17 | SE 16 | SE 15 | SSW 15 | — | — | — | — |
97 | 57 | 28 | 29 | 34 | 30 | 37 | 34 | 30 | 27 | 21 | 37 | 76 | 196 | 255 | 45 | — | — | — | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | ENE 4 | SE 11 | SSE 11 | ESE 10 | SE 11 | S 9 | SE 18 | NE 6 | SSW 16 | S 16 | SSW 15 | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | — | 2 | 18 | 22 | 10 | 20 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 52 | 20 | 44 | — | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | NNE 4 | ENE 4 | NNW 2 | — | NNW 2 | NE 5 | NW 3 | SSW 4 | SSW 8 | S 9 | S 8 | SSW 8 | S 10 | S 12 | S 12 |
— | — | — | — | — | 2 | 6 | 1 | — | 1 | 43 | 3 | 31 | 706 | 678 | 822 | 1156 | 4159 | 7137 | 7158 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99 | 79 | 9 | 6 | 82 | 62 | 79 | 3 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Blacks Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Blacks Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Blacks Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Blacks Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Blacks Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Blacks Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Blacks Reef is 50 km (31 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










