Blacks Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve got a proper look at what’s coming for Blacks Reef. Let’s talk it through.

So, right now we’re in a bit of a flat spell. The first couple of days, Tuesday 14th and Wednesday 15th of July, are offering tiny, weak waves – around 2ft to 2ft. The wind is light and clean, but honestly, there’s just not enough juice to get excited about. The combined energy is low (123 on Tuesday morning, dropping to 62 and 51 later), so it’s a good time to check your gear or just enjoy the beach.

The first real hint of life shows up on Thursday 16th July. The swell picks up to 2ft in the morning, building to 3ft by afternoon, with a long period of 15 to 17 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy coming from the ESE, and combined energy jumps to 224 and then 528. The wind is clean and cross-off – perfect for a reef like this. This is the first standout. It’s not huge, but the quality will be there for a fun session.

Then, we get a proper pulse on Friday 17th and Saturday 18th. Friday morning sees 5ft from the SE with a 16-second period, but the wind is cross-on and turns onshore, making it a bit messy. Combined energy is strong (1356 to 3044). The real gem is Saturday 18th July. Morning delivers 5ft, afternoon drops slightly to 5ft, both from the SE with a 14-second period, and the wind goes glassy in the afternoon. Combined energy is still pumping (1409 to 1070). This is your best window – clean, powerful, and excellent for experienced surfers. The water temp is about 56°F, which is close to average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

Sunday 19th turns ugly. A strong S wind (19 mph) and onshore conditions arrive with a 7ft swell, but it’s lumpy and poor. Combined energy is sky-high (1758 to 2401), but you wouldn’t want to be out in that. Hard pass.

Monday 20th and Tuesday 21st offer a bit of a recovery. Swell drops to 4ft to 5ft, still from the S, with a long period (15 to 18 seconds). Combined energy is still strong (1000 to 1728), and the wind is light cross-off or cross-shore. Tuesday morning in particular looks clean and excellent for experienced surfers. Good, but not as clean as Saturday.

After that, the swell fades through the middle of the week, with heights dropping to 2ft to 4ft by Thursday 23rd and Friday 24th. The wind is moderate to fresh from the ENE, staying clean, but the energy is weak (68 to 242). Not worth paddling out for.

Then, a big shift comes on Sunday 26th July. The swell jumps to 10ft in the morning, building to 13ft by afternoon, from the ESE with a period of 8 to 12 seconds. Combined energy is massive (1185 to 4193). This is huge – too big for most. The wind is clean at first, but by afternoon it’s cross-on and choppy. This is expert-only territory, and even then, it’s going to be a battle. The 8-second period on Sunday morning is short and punchy, making it tricky.

Monday 27th keeps the 13ft swell, but it’s messy with cross-on wind and light rain. Not fun. The swell drops to 8ft to 10ft on Tuesday 28th and Wednesday 29th, with the wind finally going cross-off and clean. Wednesday 29th morning looks excellent for experienced surfers again, with 7ft from the SE and light offshore wind. The energy is still solid (1017).

So, if you’re picking your moment, Saturday 18th July is the true standout – clean, glassy, and great energy. Thursday 16th July is a close second for a fun, clean session on the build. The big stuff at the end of the month is for the brave and the very skilled.

Keep in mind, Blacks Reef is a reef break, so with those long period swells (15+ seconds), the waves will be lined up and powerful, but it can be a bit tricky if the swell is too straight. The water’s cool, about average for July, so a good wetsuit is your friend.

I’ll be watching the forecasts, but as of now, that’s the story.

Rusty

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