Blacks Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s talk about what’s on the menu for the next couple of weeks.

We’ve got a solid run of Southern Ocean groundswell coming through, but it’s not a straightforward call. The standout is Blacks Reef, a reef break that’s very consistent and exposed to the south. The water is sitting at 55°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so don’t forget the booties. The real action kicks off Sunday the 19th with a clean 7 ft south swell and a very long 18-second period, but the wind is light and cross, so it won't be glassy perfection. The afternoon turns onshore and messy, so Sunday morning is the pick of that day.

Monday the 20th is a write-off with onshore wind and a marginal 6 ft to 8 ft south swell. Tuesday the 21st shows a major improvement. The morning is clean with a light cross breeze and a 7 ft south swell (16 seconds), but the real gem is Tuesday afternoon: glassy conditions, a clean 7 ft south swell with a 15-second period, and the combined energy is a solid 1796 (moderate-to-strong). That’s the best you’ll see all week—smooth, powerful, and begging for a late session.

The swell drops through Wednesday and Thursday the 22nd and 23rd, with the waves getting smaller and cleaner. Wednesday morning has 4 ft of south swell with glassy conditions but the energy is weak (529). Thursday is tiny, under 3 ft. Friday the 24th is flat and not worth the paddle.

The weekend of the 25th and 26th blows out with strong cross-onshore winds and lumpy seas. A big 10 ft south swell hits Monday the 27th, but with 25 mph onshore wind, it’s a complete mess—only for the kamikaze crew or kite surfers.

Now, here’s the real promise. Tuesday the 28th is the standout of the entire outlook. Morning starts with a clean 10 ft south swell (13 seconds) and a light cross-offshore breeze. The afternoon turns glassy, dead calm, and the swell stays at 10 ft with very long period (13 seconds) and a combined energy of 2850 (strong). That’s big, powerful, and clean—expert territory only. Wednesday the 29th is still excellent, with 7 ft dropping to 6 ft, clean and glassy conditions, and lighter energy. The rest of the run into the first week of August fades to small, clean, and mostly ordinary surf, with the next pulse of 8 ft to 13 ft south swell arriving on Monday the 3rd of August, but it’s predicted to be too big for this break, with strong onshore winds ruining the shape.

Bottom line: your best windows are Tuesday afternoon the 21st for a glassy, solid south swell, and Tuesday the 28th for the biggest, cleanest, most powerful groundswell of the run. That Tuesday the 28th is the one to circle on the calendar.

Rusty.

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