Surf Forecasts:
Blacks Reef surf forecast from 16 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 21 Aug, 3PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 16s period, S swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Wednesday 19 Aug, 12AM (local time) - 20ft (6.0m), 12s period, S swell with 10,235 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 20 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 9s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Blacks Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Blacks Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 20) at 6PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Blacks Reef in the next 16 days are 6.0m 12s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 12AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 3s period and expected on Saturday (Aug 22) at 6PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6PM (Thu 20th Aug) | 6ft (1.9m) 9s |
| Best Surf | 3PM (Fri 21st Aug) | 6ft (1.9m) 16s |
| Most Powerful | 12AM (Wed 19th Aug) | 20ft (6.0m) 12s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Blacks Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—the next couple of weeks start off proper horrible, but there’s a clean little window at the end of the week that’s the one you want to save your energy for. The first few days are a total loss, and you’ll be watching whitecaps, not waves.
The Early Grind (Aug 16-19): This is a messy, blown-out stretch. Sunday the 16th kicks off with about 5ft of short-period ESE slop and a cross-on wind, with weak to moderate energy at 937. Not good. Monday the 17th it pumps up to a solid 13ft of south swell, energy jumps to 3373, but it’s all onshore and junky. Tuesday keeps the size and mess, but Wednesday the 19th is the peak of the storm—16ft of south swell with a huge energy reading of 8070 and a strong onshore breeze. That’s not surfable; that’s a demolition derby. If you’re a kitesurfer, you might have fun, but for a paddle surfer, it’s a hard pass.
The Cleaning-Up Process (Aug 20): Thursday the 20th drops down to around 10ft in the morning with cross-onshore wind and choppy conditions. The afternoon sees it down to 7ft but the energy tanks to a weak 843. Still not worth paddling out for.
The Standout Window (Aug 21-22): This is it. Friday morning the 21st is glassy with a light offshore breeze, and there’s a clean 5ft of S swell at 10 seconds, with energy at 761. It’s not huge, but it’s clean and the reef will be working nicely. The afternoon has a small 4ft of very long-period S swell (16 seconds), but the wind goes a bit cross.
Saturday morning the 22nd is the crown jewel. Glassy, clean, with a light offshore wind, 4ft of S swell and a 13-second period—true groundswell. Energy is low at 505, but the quality will be high. The break is consistent, so there will be waves, but expect a few other surfers out there who’ve been waiting just like you for this exact window. This is a long-period S swell, so it’s going to love this reef setup. That’s the one.
The Drop-Off (Aug 23-25): The waves vanish. Sunday the 23rd has about 3ft of leftover energy, Monday drops to around 2ft, and Tuesday the 25th is basically flat at 1ft. The wind’s okay but there’s nothing ridable.
The Tail End (Aug 26 & 29): A couple of tiny pulses at the end. Wednesday the 26th brings back a 5-6ft S swell, with the afternoon going glassy, so it might be a fun one. Then Saturday the 29th has 6ft of S swell, but the wind is onshore and light. Marginal.
So listen up. The water is a bit colder than normal (54°F and 3°F below average), so pack the thicker rubber. The entire forecast hinges on that Saturday morning, August 22nd. It’s not big, but it’s clean and the period’s long. Don’t waste your time paddling out in the storm slop; wait for that Saturday glass and make the most of it. That’s the only true standout in this whole 16-day stretch. Keep the faith, but be patient.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 37mm), heaviest during Sun afternoon. Very mild (max 11°C on Sun morning, min 7°C on Tue night). Winds increasing (fresh winds from the WSW on Sun morning, near gales from the SW by Tue night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Wed night. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri afternoon, min 7°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the SSW on Wed morning, calm by Thu afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 16 | Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 8 | SSW 8 | S 10 | S 10 | S 10 | S 9 | S 9 | S 10 | S 12 | S 12 | S 12 | S 14 | S 13 | S 9 | S 9 | S 12 | S 16 | S 14 | S 12 | S 12 | S 11 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
341 | 980 | 3489 | 2787 | 2134 | 1404 | 1359 | 3258 | 10235 | 6893 | 5488 | 4700 | 2576 | 627 | 435 | 702 | 1812 | 1002 | 437 | 276 | 195 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | on | on | on | on | cross-on | on | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 8:31PM1.81m | 9:00AM1.76m | 9:21PM1.76m | 9:46AM1.75m | 10:10PM1.71m | 10:33AM1.72m | 10:59PM1.67m | 11:22AM1.67m | 11:48PM1.62m | 12:14PM1.62m | 00:35AM1.57m | 1:06PM1.58m | 1:22AM1.51m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 2:17PM0.13m | 2:51AM0.16m | 3:09PM0.20m | 3:39AM0.22m | 4:01PM0.28m | 4:27AM0.30m | 4:51PM0.34m | 5:15AM0.36m | 5:41PM0.40m | 6:03AM0.41m | 6:30PM0.44m | 6:49AM0.45m | 7:20PM0.47m | ||||||||
6:54 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:52 | — | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:48 | — | — | 6:48 | — | — | 6:46 | — | — | |
— | 5:30 | — | — | 5:31 | — | — | 5:32 | — | — | 5:34 | — | — | 5:35 | — | — | 5:36 | — | — | 5:37 | — | |
mm | 2 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | — | 5 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 17 | 12 |
Feels °C | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | -1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 14 | 8 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 8 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | E 10 | ESE 10 | E 10 | SE 9 | ESE 9 | ESE 15 | SE 14 | SE 9 | SE 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 9 | S 12 | S 16 | S 14 | S 12 | S 12 | S 11 |
341 | 275 | 380 | 198 | 112 | 77 | 328 | 148 | 22 | 46 | 342 | 379 | 1124 | 627 | 435 | 702 | 1812 | 1002 | 437 | 276 | 195 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 18 | NE 8 | SE 15 | SSW 16 | E 10 | E 10 | — | — | — | — | ESE 13 | SE 8 | SE 11 | SE 14 | S 17 | S 16 | SE 10 | ESE 12 | ESE 13 | ESE 12 | ESE 13 |
222 | 31 | 9 | 380 | 194 | 104 | — | — | — | — | 17 | 149 | 20 | 7 | 86 | 342 | 23 | 14 | 17 | 15 | 17 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | S 18 | SE 12 | ESE 10 | SE 14 | E 15 | — | — | — |
307 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 17 | — | — | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 5 | SSW 8 | S 10 | S 10 | S 10 | S 9 | S 9 | S 10 | S 12 | S 12 | S 12 | S 14 | S 13 | — | — | — | — | WNW 3 | NW 3 | NW 3 | NW 3 |
87 | 980 | 3489 | 2787 | 2134 | 1404 | 1359 | 3258 | 10235 | 6893 | 5488 | 4700 | 2576 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 114 | 114 | 157 | 91 | 162 | 75 | 157 | 169 | 169 | 162 | 89 | 91 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Blacks Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Blacks Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Blacks Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Blacks Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Blacks Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Blacks Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Blacks Reef is 50 km (31 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











