
Surf Forecasts:
Blacks Reef surf forecast from 1 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 7 Aug, 3PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 17s period, S swell with cross-onshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 4 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 13s period, S swell with 9,503 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 2 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 11s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Blacks Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Blacks Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Aug 02) at 6PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.0m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.9m and 14s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Blacks Reef in the next 16 days are 5.0m 13s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 04) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.4m 3s period and expected on Monday (Aug 03) at 9AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6PM (Sun 2nd Aug) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 3PM (Fri 7th Aug) | 11ft (3.5m) 17s |
| Most Powerful | 6PM (Tue 4th Aug) | 16ft (5.0m) 13s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Blacks Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, Rusty here. Look, straight up—this is a tricky 16-day window for Blacks Reef, a reef break that’s pretty consistent but needs the right conditions. The big story is a massive swell event mid-week that’s gonna be way too wild for paddling, then a solid cleanup for the weekend that’s the real standout.
The week kicks off Sunday, August 2nd, with 8ft S swell at 12 seconds, but a light cross breeze keeps it from clean. It’s marginal. Monday, August 3rd, drops to 6ft, but the wind is cross and the energy is moderate (663). Honestly, not worth a paddle.
Then Tuesday, August 4th, things get heavy. A strong breeze (25 mph) onshore and a 13ft to 16ft S swell with 13-second periods roar in with strong wave energy (2421 to 8627). It’s a washing machine. Wednesday, August 5th, is worse: 15ft swell, 13-second period, and 11528 combined energy. That’s very strong. For the experienced, this is a kite surfer’s dream, not a paddle surfer’s. The water temp is about average for the time of year, no major anomaly.
Thursday, August 6th, starts to drop but is still messy with cross-onshore winds. By Friday, August 7th, there’s a 12ft S swell with a very long 17-second period and strong energy (6882), but the wind is cross-onshore and the swell is too big for the break. It’s a pass.
Now, here’s the standout. Saturday, August 8th, is the pick of the lot. The morning is glassy—no wind at all—with a 8ft S swell rolling in at 13 seconds. That’s a groundswell with moderate energy (2598). The afternoon stays glassy with a light ESE breeze, 8ft S swell at 12 seconds. This is expert-level stuff. The waves will be clean, powerful, and well-shaped over the reef. Crowds are likely here, so get in early. It’s the best on offer by a long shot.
Sunday, August 9th, to Monday, August 10th, drops off quickly with 5ft to 6ft swell and cross winds—marginal and not worth a special trip.
Tuesday, August 11th, brings a 8ft ESE swell, but the period is short at 8 seconds, so it’ll be junky and choppy. Not great.
Then we get a nice run from Wednesday, August 12th, through Friday, August 14th. Wednesday has 7ft E swell at 11 seconds with clean cross-offshore winds and moderate energy (1216). Thursday, August 13th, is even better: 6ft E swell at 12 seconds, clean cross-offshore breeze, and moderate energy (1030). Friday, August 14th, goes glassy again with 5ft E swell at 11 seconds. These are all good, clean waves for intermediate to experienced surfers, but the swell is smaller, so not the standout.
From Saturday, August 15th, onward, it’s a flat spell. Swell drops to 3ft then 0.3ft, with poor conditions and very weak energy. That continues through Sunday, August 16th, and into Monday, August 17th, where a feeble 5ft SSW swell with a 5-second period shows up—just ordinary.
So, bottom line: the best bet is Saturday, August 8th at Blacks Reef. Glassy, solid 8ft S groundswell, and expert-level waves. Thursday, August 13th, is a solid second option for cleaner, smaller surf. The mid-week is a washout, and the end of the run is flat. Keep an eye on the forecast, but that Saturday is the one.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Mon night. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 5°C on Sat night). Winds increasing (calm on Sun afternoon, strong winds from the SW by Tue afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 8mm), mostly falling on Wed morning. Mild temperatures (max 9°C on Thu afternoon, min 4°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SW on Tue night, calm by Thu afternoon). | ||||||||||||||||||
Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | Wednesday 5 | Thursday 6 | Friday 7 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 13 | S 12 | S 11 | S 11 | S 10 | SSE 11 | S 12 | S 9 | S 13 | S 13 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | S 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | S 19 | S 17 | S 15 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
3344 | 2027 | 1179 | 862 | 627 | 292 | 649 | 2418 | 8627 | 7204 | 6455 | 3374 | 2202 | 1340 | 1106 | 659 | 722 | 6692 | 4682 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | cross | cross-on | cross-off | cross | on | cross-on | on | on | on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | glassy |
High Tide | 8:14AM1.51m | 8:34PM1.61m | 8:57AM1.55m | 9:19PM1.63m | 9:39AM1.59m | 10:04PM1.65m | 10:22AM1.63m | 10:51PM1.66m | 11:10AM1.67m | 11:41PM1.67m | 12:04PM1.70m | 00:33AM1.67m | |||||||
Low Tide | 2:07AM0.29m | 2:15PM0.29m | 2:50AM0.27m | 3:02PM0.29m | 3:34AM0.27m | 3:49PM0.29m | 4:19AM0.27m | 4:38PM0.30m | 5:05AM0.28m | 5:29PM0.31m | 5:54AM0.28m | 6:23PM0.31m | |||||||
— | 7:11 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:09 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | |
— | — | 5:19 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2 | — | 3 | 3 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 9 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
Feels °C | 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 7 | -1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 13 | S 12 | S 11 | S 11 | S 10 | SSE 11 | S 12 | E 12 | ENE 12 | — | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | S 11 | SSE 11 | SSE 10 | S 10 | S 17 | S 15 |
3344 | 2027 | 1179 | 862 | 627 | 292 | 649 | 3 | 14 | — | 5073 | 3374 | 2202 | 1340 | 1106 | 659 | 509 | 6692 | 4682 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 10 | E 16 | SSE 15 | ENE 14 | S 22 | S 13 | S 18 | — | — | — | — | E 18 | SE 16 | SE 15 | SE 15 | SE 14 | S 19 | SE 13 | NE 14 |
8 | 5 | 242 | 21 | 36 | 168 | 103 | — | — | — | — | 6 | 41 | 76 | 33 | 89 | 722 | 190 | 8 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 16 | NE 16 | E 15 | — | ENE 13 | SSW 9 | NE 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | E 18 | SE 15 | E 16 | SE 13 | — | NE 15 |
5 | 40 | 4 | — | 17 | 68 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 54 | 5 | 190 | — | 8 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | NW 3 | NW 3 | W 3 | S 9 | S 13 | S 13 | S 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
— | — | — | — | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2418 | 8627 | 7204 | 6455 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 75 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 169 | 157 | 169 | 169 | 109 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Blacks Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Blacks Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Blacks Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Blacks Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Blacks Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Blacks Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Blacks Reef is 50 km (31 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











