
Surf Forecasts:
Blacks Reef surf forecast from 20 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Sunday 26 Jul, 6PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 15s period, S swell with cross-shore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 27 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 21ft (6.5m), 14s period, S swell with 17,197 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 21 Jul, 6PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 14s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Blacks Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Blacks Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 21) at 6PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.9m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 0.5m and 11s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Blacks Reef in the next 16 days are 6.5m 14s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 27) at 6AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.8m 4s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 23) at 9PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6PM (Tue 21st Jul) | 6ft (1.9m) 14s |
| Best Surf | 6PM (Sun 26th Jul) | 11ft (3.5m) 15s |
| Most Powerful | 6AM (Mon 27th Jul) | 21ft (6.5m) 14s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Blacks Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G'day, Rusty here. Look, I gotta be straight with you – the next 16 days at Blacks Reef are a real mixed bag, and there's a lot of waiting for the good stuff. We're starting with a bit of a gap right now, but let's get into it.
The week kicks off on Monday, 20th July, but it's a tough one to love. The swell is showing up at 6ft from the south, and the water's sitting at 55°, which is a bit colder than you'd expect for this time of year. The wave energy is moderate (2018), but the wind is onshore from the SSW at 15 km/h, putting a real chop on it. The period is a long 15 seconds, which is a proper groundswell, but the conditions are described as marginal. It's a frustrating start.
Monday afternoon gets a bit more size, hitting 8ft from the south, and the energy jumps right up to 4093 – that's a solid push. But the wind is still onshore, and it's still marginal. Not the day to paddle out unless you're desperate.
Tuesday, the 21st, is a bit better. The morning has 8ft from the south with a 16-second period, and the wind is a light cross-on from the west at 10 km/h. The energy is strong (2706), and the skies are clear. The afternoon sees the wind drop to a light onshore from the south at 5 km/h, and the swell dips slightly to 7ft, still with a long period. It's still labelled marginal, but it's the cleanest we've seen so far. Still, not a standout.
Wednesday and Thursday, the 22nd and 23rd, are a drop-off. The swell fades to 5ft and then 3ft, and the energy drops off a cliff. The wind improves to light cross-off on Thursday, with the swell at 3ft from the south, and the conditions are described as "good." The period is 12 seconds, and the energy is low (207). It's clean, but it's tiny. For a beginner, this is a window, but for most of us, it's a paddle and a tan.
Then we hit a real dead spot. From Friday, 24th July, through to Sunday, 26th July, the swell is tiny, weak, and the energy is below 100. The wind picks up strong from the west on the 25th and 26th, with gusts pushing 35 km/h, and it's a messy, lumpy cross-chop. The swell is short-period windswell at 7 seconds. This is a no-go zone. If you're looking at this stretch, the setup looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer, with that strong wind and lumpy sea.
Now, here's the big one. Monday, 27th July, is a monster. The swell is a massive 21ft from the south, with a 14-second period and a combined energy of 17211 – that's a very strong, powerful swell. But the wind is a strong breeze from the WSW at 40 km/h, cross-on and messy. The note says the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. This is expert-only territory, and even then, it's a survival mission. The conditions are poor, and it's not a surfer's day. Tuesday afternoon, the 28th, is a bit smaller at 7ft from the SE, but the wind is onshore again.
The second week starts to settle down. From Wednesday, 29th July, through to the end of the forecast, the swell is smaller, mostly around 3ft to 6ft, and the wind turns more favourable. The best of this period is Tuesday, 4th August. The morning has a clean 6ft from the SSW, with a 12-second period and a light offshore wind from the east at 5 km/h. The energy is solid (807), and the conditions are described as "very good." The afternoon is also clean, with a smaller 3ft. This is the true standout of the second week. The wind is light and offshore, the skies are clear, and the reef will be lining up nicely. It's still a couple of weeks away, so it's a promising but less certain call, but it's the best bet on the board.
For the rest of the second week, the swell stays small, but the wind stays light, with some offshore periods on Thursday, 30th July, and Monday, 3rd August. The energy is low, so it's a longboard or a funboard kind of week.
So, overall, the first week is a struggle. The best on offer is Tuesday, 4th August, with that clean 6ft south-southwest swell and offshore breeze. That's your window. The rest is either too big and blown out, or too small. Hang tight, lads.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastSome drizzle, heaviest during Mon afternoon. Very mild (max 11°C on Mon morning, min 7°C on Tue night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Fri morning, min 9°C on Thu morning). Winds increasing (light winds from the NNE on Thu morning, fresh winds from the WSW by Fri night). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 15 | S 19 | S 18 | S 16 | S 15 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | SSW 10 | S 10 | S 9 | E 10 | SW 7 | SSW 7 | SE 16 | SSW 7 | S 16 | S 15 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
1415 | 3752 | 4586 | 2609 | 1699 | 905 | 501 | 342 | 389 | 177 | 72 | 34 | 30 | 26 | 18 | 268 | 111 | 159 | 294 | 1206 | 12526 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | on | on | cross-on | on | cross-off | cross-on | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross-on | cross-on |
High Tide | 10:17AM1.72m | 10:42PM1.74m | 11:07AM1.68m | 11:33PM1.68m | 11:59AM1.65m | 00:24AM1.62m | 12:54PM1.62m | 1:14AM1.58m | 1:46PM1.61m | 2:03AM1.55m | 2:36PM1.59m | 2:51AM1.51m | 3:22PM1.58m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 4:30PM0.21m | 5:02AM0.20m | 5:23PM0.29m | 5:51AM0.28m | 6:15PM0.36m | 6:39AM0.36m | 7:08PM0.42m | 7:27AM0.42m | 8:00PM0.47m | 8:15AM0.47m | 8:50PM0.50m | 9:04AM0.48m | 9:37PM0.50m | ||||||||
7:20 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:18 | — | — | 7:16 | — | — | |
— | 5:07 | — | — | 5:08 | — | — | 5:09 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:12 | — | — | 5:13 | — | |
mm | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 |
Temp °C | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 11 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 9 |
Feels °C | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 5 | -1 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 15 | S 19 | S 18 | S 16 | S 15 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | ENE 5 | S 10 | S 9 | ENE 7 | E 10 | SSW 7 | ESE 11 | SSW 7 | S 16 | ESE 13 |
1415 | 3752 | 4586 | 2609 | 1699 | 905 | 501 | 342 | 389 | 177 | 72 | 12 | 30 | 26 | 31 | 53 | 111 | 123 | 294 | 1206 | 304 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 12 | SE 12 | SE 11 | SE 11 | SE 11 | SE 11 | SE 10 | SE 11 | SE 10 | SE 11 | SSE 11 | SSW 10 | ENE 6 | ENE 7 | E 10 | SE 13 | E 10 | SE 16 | SE 14 | ESE 14 | — |
169 | 167 | 103 | 97 | 97 | 56 | 28 | 29 | 16 | 30 | 40 | 34 | 7 | 10 | 18 | 27 | 49 | 159 | 206 | 337 | — | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 19 | ESE 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ESE 12 | ENE 4 | SE 11 | SSE 11 | ESE 10 | ESE 11 | S 9 | S 15 | ESE 12 | SSW 16 | E 11 | E 11 | — |
434 | 174 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14 | 1 | 18 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 31 | 53 | 57 | 57 | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NE 4 | NNW 2 | N 3 | NNE 4 | WNW 3 | SW 7 | NW 2 | SW 7 | W 5 | SSW 10 | S 15 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 268 | 1 | 156 | 34 | 919 | 12526 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 3 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 156 | 82 | 33 | 156 | 3 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 88 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Blacks Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Blacks Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Blacks Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Blacks Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Blacks Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Blacks Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Blacks Reef is 50 km (31 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










