Blacks Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, straight up—this is a tricky 16-day window for Blacks Reef, a reef break that’s pretty consistent but needs the right conditions. The big story is a massive swell event mid-week that’s gonna be way too wild for paddling, then a solid cleanup for the weekend that’s the real standout.

The week kicks off Sunday, August 2nd, with 8ft S swell at 12 seconds, but a light cross breeze keeps it from clean. It’s marginal. Monday, August 3rd, drops to 6ft, but the wind is cross and the energy is moderate (663). Honestly, not worth a paddle.

Then Tuesday, August 4th, things get heavy. A strong breeze (25 mph) onshore and a 13ft to 16ft S swell with 13-second periods roar in with strong wave energy (2421 to 8627). It’s a washing machine. Wednesday, August 5th, is worse: 15ft swell, 13-second period, and 11528 combined energy. That’s very strong. For the experienced, this is a kite surfer’s dream, not a paddle surfer’s. The water temp is about average for the time of year, no major anomaly.

Thursday, August 6th, starts to drop but is still messy with cross-onshore winds. By Friday, August 7th, there’s a 12ft S swell with a very long 17-second period and strong energy (6882), but the wind is cross-onshore and the swell is too big for the break. It’s a pass.

Now, here’s the standout. Saturday, August 8th, is the pick of the lot. The morning is glassy—no wind at all—with a 8ft S swell rolling in at 13 seconds. That’s a groundswell with moderate energy (2598). The afternoon stays glassy with a light ESE breeze, 8ft S swell at 12 seconds. This is expert-level stuff. The waves will be clean, powerful, and well-shaped over the reef. Crowds are likely here, so get in early. It’s the best on offer by a long shot.

Sunday, August 9th, to Monday, August 10th, drops off quickly with 5ft to 6ft swell and cross winds—marginal and not worth a special trip.

Tuesday, August 11th, brings a 8ft ESE swell, but the period is short at 8 seconds, so it’ll be junky and choppy. Not great.

Then we get a nice run from Wednesday, August 12th, through Friday, August 14th. Wednesday has 7ft E swell at 11 seconds with clean cross-offshore winds and moderate energy (1216). Thursday, August 13th, is even better: 6ft E swell at 12 seconds, clean cross-offshore breeze, and moderate energy (1030). Friday, August 14th, goes glassy again with 5ft E swell at 11 seconds. These are all good, clean waves for intermediate to experienced surfers, but the swell is smaller, so not the standout.

From Saturday, August 15th, onward, it’s a flat spell. Swell drops to 3ft then 0.3ft, with poor conditions and very weak energy. That continues through Sunday, August 16th, and into Monday, August 17th, where a feeble 5ft SSW swell with a 5-second period shows up—just ordinary.

So, bottom line: the best bet is Saturday, August 8th at Blacks Reef. Glassy, solid 8ft S groundswell, and expert-level waves. Thursday, August 13th, is a solid second option for cleaner, smaller surf. The mid-week is a washout, and the end of the run is flat. Keep an eye on the forecast, but that Saturday is the one.

Rusty.

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