Blacks Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your wetties, let’s get into it.

Look, the next week and a half is a proper write-off for Blacks Reef. We’ve got a massive run of strong, messy winds and big, unruly swell that’s just not gonna line up. From Saturday the 15th right through to the 20th, it’s a no-go. That south wind is howling, and we’re looking at surf in the 8ft to 16ft range, but it’s all blown out, chopped up, and ugly. From Monday the 17th through Wednesday the 19th, we’re talking seriously heavy swell between 13ft and 16ft, with a combined energy reading in the thousands—that’s a lot of power (7470 at its peak), but without clean winds, it’s just a washing machine. Beginners, stay well clear; and even for the experienced crew, it’s going to be a battle with the wind. There’s a bit of a drop on Thursday the 20th, but the cross-onshore wind still has it messy.

Then, finally, a window. Friday the 21st is the standout. After almost a week of nonsense, the wind dies right off. We get glassy conditions with light offshore breezes from the NW and ESE. Swell drops to a clean 5ft to 5ft from the south, but with a period of 12 to 16 seconds, that’s a proper long-period groundswell. The energy is moderate to strong (1013 to 1342), and the water is about 54°, which is nearly 3° cooler than usual for this time of year—a bit nippy, so suit up. This is expert territory, as that long period will make the reef line up nicely, but the paddle out will be manageable. Expect a crowd here, though, because this is the first decent day in ages.

Saturday the 22nd holds up okay with glassy morning conditions and a lighter 3ft to 4ft south swell, but the power drops off (346 to 402). It’ll be clean and fun for a cruiser session, but nothing special.

After that, we hit another flat spell. Sunday the 23rd and Monday the 24th see the swell drop below 2ft, and the energy tanks down into double digits. The following days stay tiny or turn messy again, with another big south wind event kicking back in on Thursday the 27th, pushing 12ft of poor quality surf. There’s a flicker of hope on Sunday the 30th with 8ft south swell and a 16-second period, but it’s onshore wind, and the forecast is “marginal.” Not worth banking on that far out.

So, for the whole 16-day window, the only true green light is Friday the 21st. Get out there for the glassy morning, catch those long, clean lines off the reef, and deal with the crew. Everything else is best left on the land.

Stay stoked, Rusty.

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