Blacks Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—the next couple of weeks start off proper horrible, but there’s a clean little window at the end of the week that’s the one you want to save your energy for. The first few days are a total loss, and you’ll be watching whitecaps, not waves.

The Early Grind (Aug 16-19): This is a messy, blown-out stretch. Sunday the 16th kicks off with about 5ft of short-period ESE slop and a cross-on wind, with weak to moderate energy at 937. Not good. Monday the 17th it pumps up to a solid 13ft of south swell, energy jumps to 3373, but it’s all onshore and junky. Tuesday keeps the size and mess, but Wednesday the 19th is the peak of the storm—16ft of south swell with a huge energy reading of 8070 and a strong onshore breeze. That’s not surfable; that’s a demolition derby. If you’re a kitesurfer, you might have fun, but for a paddle surfer, it’s a hard pass.

The Cleaning-Up Process (Aug 20): Thursday the 20th drops down to around 10ft in the morning with cross-onshore wind and choppy conditions. The afternoon sees it down to 7ft but the energy tanks to a weak 843. Still not worth paddling out for.

The Standout Window (Aug 21-22): This is it. Friday morning the 21st is glassy with a light offshore breeze, and there’s a clean 5ft of S swell at 10 seconds, with energy at 761. It’s not huge, but it’s clean and the reef will be working nicely. The afternoon has a small 4ft of very long-period S swell (16 seconds), but the wind goes a bit cross.

Saturday morning the 22nd is the crown jewel. Glassy, clean, with a light offshore wind, 4ft of S swell and a 13-second period—true groundswell. Energy is low at 505, but the quality will be high. The break is consistent, so there will be waves, but expect a few other surfers out there who’ve been waiting just like you for this exact window. This is a long-period S swell, so it’s going to love this reef setup. That’s the one.

The Drop-Off (Aug 23-25): The waves vanish. Sunday the 23rd has about 3ft of leftover energy, Monday drops to around 2ft, and Tuesday the 25th is basically flat at 1ft. The wind’s okay but there’s nothing ridable.

The Tail End (Aug 26 & 29): A couple of tiny pulses at the end. Wednesday the 26th brings back a 5-6ft S swell, with the afternoon going glassy, so it might be a fun one. Then Saturday the 29th has 6ft of S swell, but the wind is onshore and light. Marginal.

So listen up. The water is a bit colder than normal (54°F and 3°F below average), so pack the thicker rubber. The entire forecast hinges on that Saturday morning, August 22nd. It’s not big, but it’s clean and the period’s long. Don’t waste your time paddling out in the storm slop; wait for that Saturday glass and make the most of it. That’s the only true standout in this whole 16-day stretch. Keep the faith, but be patient.

Rusty.

Read more