Blacks Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's break down the surf forecast for the next couple of weeks. We've got one main reef on the menu, and it’s a tale of two weeks: a slow, poor start, followed by a legitimate run of solid, clean surf. Don't get too excited about the first few days, though.

The outlook opens with a real dud. Thursday the 10th has a weak 0.8m SE swell and the energy is just pathetic (89). Friday and Saturday are in the same boat—tiny surf, poor conditions. You're looking at a solid four-day gap here with nothing worth paddling out for. It's a good time to sort out your fins and wax.

Things finally start to move on Sunday the 13th. The swell builds throughout the day, hitting 2.5m in the morning and pushing to a solid 3.0m by the afternoon. The energy jumps into the thousands, showing there's real power in the water. But, and it's a big but, the winds are onshore and messy. It's going to be a big, chaotic, blown-out mess. This is strictly expert territory given the size, but the conditions are going to make it a grindy, difficult session.

Then, we get our first real taste of what this place can do. Monday the 14th is the clear winner of the first week. The wind swings offshore in the morning (NNE at 10 km/h), and the swell drops to a clean 1.9m with a better 11-second period. This is the combo we're chasing. The energy is moderate at 802, but the clean, lined-up faces will make it feel so much better. Expect very good surf conditions. The afternoon holds up too, with a cross-offshore breeze and 1.7m of swell. This is your day to get amongst it.

After Monday, it flatlines again. Tuesday and Wednesday are small and forgettable. Get those jobs done around the house, because the second week is where it's at.

The ocean properly wakes up on Sunday the 20th. The afternoon looks excellent, with a solid 2.0m SSW swell and a clean, light cross-offshore wind. The energy is pumping at 1612. That's the standout of the whole run. It’s over the 1.5m mark, so it’ll be a bit much for beginners, but for the rest of you, this is going to be a proper session.

Monday the 21st keeps the good times rolling with 1.7m of clean, cross-off swell. It's a great follow-up.

Then we get the big one. Tuesday the 22nd. The morning is looking absolutely glassy with a powerful 2.4m SSW swell (1672 energy). The afternoon gets even bigger, hitting 3.0m. This is the other top-tier window. We're in heavy, expert-only surf. That SSW energy should wrap nicely into this reef, but with that size, it's going to be demanding. Get out before the winds get on it.

Wednesday the 23rd has some size early at 2.5m with clean winds, but it deteriorates in the afternoon. Get out early if you're keen.

And after that, we're done. Thursday and Friday the 24th and 25th fade back into small, poor conditions. The run is over.

So, to sum it up: skip the first week until Monday the 14th. That's your first good one. Then, circle Sunday the 20th through to Tuesday the 22nd on the calendar. That Sunday afternoon and all of Tuesday are looking absolutely firing. Tuesday is for the big dogs only.

One thing to note on the water: when you get in on the 14th, the water temp is 13°, which is about a degree colder than average for this time of year. Don't forget the booties, it's going to be nippy.

This is Rusty, signing off. See you in the water.

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