Blacks Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Look, I gotta be straight with you – the next 16 days at Blacks Reef are a real mixed bag, and there's a lot of waiting for the good stuff. We're starting with a bit of a gap right now, but let's get into it.

The week kicks off on Monday, 20th July, but it's a tough one to love. The swell is showing up at 6ft from the south, and the water's sitting at 55°, which is a bit colder than you'd expect for this time of year. The wave energy is moderate (2018), but the wind is onshore from the SSW at 15 km/h, putting a real chop on it. The period is a long 15 seconds, which is a proper groundswell, but the conditions are described as marginal. It's a frustrating start.

Monday afternoon gets a bit more size, hitting 8ft from the south, and the energy jumps right up to 4093 – that's a solid push. But the wind is still onshore, and it's still marginal. Not the day to paddle out unless you're desperate.

Tuesday, the 21st, is a bit better. The morning has 8ft from the south with a 16-second period, and the wind is a light cross-on from the west at 10 km/h. The energy is strong (2706), and the skies are clear. The afternoon sees the wind drop to a light onshore from the south at 5 km/h, and the swell dips slightly to 7ft, still with a long period. It's still labelled marginal, but it's the cleanest we've seen so far. Still, not a standout.

Wednesday and Thursday, the 22nd and 23rd, are a drop-off. The swell fades to 5ft and then 3ft, and the energy drops off a cliff. The wind improves to light cross-off on Thursday, with the swell at 3ft from the south, and the conditions are described as "good." The period is 12 seconds, and the energy is low (207). It's clean, but it's tiny. For a beginner, this is a window, but for most of us, it's a paddle and a tan.

Then we hit a real dead spot. From Friday, 24th July, through to Sunday, 26th July, the swell is tiny, weak, and the energy is below 100. The wind picks up strong from the west on the 25th and 26th, with gusts pushing 35 km/h, and it's a messy, lumpy cross-chop. The swell is short-period windswell at 7 seconds. This is a no-go zone. If you're looking at this stretch, the setup looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer, with that strong wind and lumpy sea.

Now, here's the big one. Monday, 27th July, is a monster. The swell is a massive 21ft from the south, with a 14-second period and a combined energy of 17211 – that's a very strong, powerful swell. But the wind is a strong breeze from the WSW at 40 km/h, cross-on and messy. The note says the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. This is expert-only territory, and even then, it's a survival mission. The conditions are poor, and it's not a surfer's day. Tuesday afternoon, the 28th, is a bit smaller at 7ft from the SE, but the wind is onshore again.

The second week starts to settle down. From Wednesday, 29th July, through to the end of the forecast, the swell is smaller, mostly around 3ft to 6ft, and the wind turns more favourable. The best of this period is Tuesday, 4th August. The morning has a clean 6ft from the SSW, with a 12-second period and a light offshore wind from the east at 5 km/h. The energy is solid (807), and the conditions are described as "very good." The afternoon is also clean, with a smaller 3ft. This is the true standout of the second week. The wind is light and offshore, the skies are clear, and the reef will be lining up nicely. It's still a couple of weeks away, so it's a promising but less certain call, but it's the best bet on the board.

For the rest of the second week, the swell stays small, but the wind stays light, with some offshore periods on Thursday, 30th July, and Monday, 3rd August. The energy is low, so it's a longboard or a funboard kind of week.

So, overall, the first week is a struggle. The best on offer is Tuesday, 4th August, with that clean 6ft south-southwest swell and offshore breeze. That's your window. The rest is either too big and blown out, or too small. Hang tight, lads.

Rusty.

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