Blacks Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright crew, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming down the line for Blacks Reef. This is a south-facing reef break, and it’s a very consistent wave that’s beginner-friendly – but it can get mean when the size picks up. The water is sitting at 13° which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want that extra rubber.

Right now, we’re in a flat, ugly spell. The first few days are a total write-off. Friday the 10th is a rain-swept mess with a 12 ft SSE swell and a 30 km/h cross-onshore wind. The wave energy is huge at 2629 but the quality is garbage – lumpy and blown out. That continues right through the weekend. Saturday the 11th sees a drop in size to around 7 ft but the wind swings onshore and the conditions are marginal at best. Sunday the 12th drops further to under 3 ft, though we do see a very long-period 15-second groundswell from the south. With light morning winds, it might be rideable, but it’s a weak 676 energy – more of a longboard drift.

Monday the 13th is where we finally see a glimmer. The swell drops to 3 ft from the south, but the wind goes light and offshore from the north. That’s a clean little wave with 269 energy. It’s small, but if you’re keen for a wobbly knee-to-waist-high session, that’s your window. Tuesday and Wednesday have even smaller surf – 2 ft and 1 ft – with very light winds and some glassy moments. Not worth paddling out for unless you’re on a foamie.

Now, Thursday the 16th looks weird. We get a long-period 18-second SE swell at 3 ft, but it’s coming with a 20 km/h cross-shore wind. 468 energy and a cross-chop – not great. Friday the 17th is a no-go: 5 ft to 6 ft SE swell but a fresh 30-35 km/h cross-onshore wind that’ll have the surface looking like a washing machine. Energy is over 1200 but the wind ruins it.

The first true standout arrives Saturday the 18th. This is the best of the first week. A solid 6 ft south swell with a nice 11 to 12-second period, and the wind shifts to a light offshore from the northwest. Energy is strong at 1501 and conditions are clean. This is when experienced surfers should be on it. The reef will have some push – not huge, but quality. Keep an eye on the tide.

After that, Sunday the 19th turns nasty. A massive 10 ft south swell arrives with an insane 6210 energy, but it’s accompanied by 50 km/h onshore winds and rain. That’s a survival mission, not a surf. That stormy weather and big, messy swell hang around through Monday and Tuesday the 20th and 21st.

The real magic happens Wednesday the 22nd through the end of the outlook. On Wednesday the 22nd, we’ve got a 8 ft south swell hitting with glassy conditions in the afternoon. Energy is 1623, period is 12 seconds. The word “glassy” says it all – that’s the one. Get on it. Thursday the 23rd holds similar quality with 6 ft to 6 ft SSE swell, again glassy, and light winds. Friday the 24th has clean offshore winds with 6 ft SSE swell – still very good. Saturday the 25th is a bit smaller at 4 ft, but it’s still clean with a moderate offshore breeze.

For the long-range stuff, Wednesday the 22nd afternoon is the standout. That’s a week and a half out, so keep an eye on the forecasts, but it looks like a gem. The following days through to the 25th are all very good to good, so you’ve got a solid run of clean, punchy reef waves on offer.

The early part is a bust. Once the wind gets out of the south and swings offshore, Blacks Reef will wake up. Don’t waste your time before the 18th unless you’re after a tiny, clean paddle.

Rusty.

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