Surf Forecasts:
Blacks Reef surf forecast from 15 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 21 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 10s period, SSW swell with cross-onshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 21 Sep, 6AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 12s period, S swell with 2,521 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 15 Sep, 9PM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 9s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Blacks Reef this week:
The surf forecast for Blacks Reef over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 15) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.1m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 0.2m and 15s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Blacks Reef in the next 16 days are 3.0m 12s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Sep 21) at 6AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.0m 6s period and expected on Friday (Sep 18) at 12AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9PM (Tue 15th Sep) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 9s |
| Best Surf | 3AM (Mon 21st Sep) | 11ft (3.5m) 10s |
| Most Powerful | 6AM (Mon 21st Sep) | 10ft (3.0m) 12s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Blacks Reef over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Morning crew, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next couple of weeks are a mixed bag, and you’re going to need patience. The water’s sitting at 55°F, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year—so grab the hood if you’re sensitive.
Blacks Reef is the only spot on the menu, and right now it’s not doing much. Tuesday morning starts off clean, glassy, with a little 5ft south swell, period around 11 seconds. It’s got that long-period push, but nothing crazy—moderate energy (481). If you’re a beginner, that’s actually fine, but the crowd could be a factor since it’s often busy. The afternoon dies off a bit with a cross-off breeze.
Wednesday and Thursday are pretty ordinary—small, waist-to-chest high at best, clean but weak. The energy drops right down. You’re really just getting grovelly waves.
Then we hit a rough patch. Friday through the next week, it’s messy: cross-on winds, lumpy conditions, and the swell drops to knee-high. Not worth paddling out unless you’re desperate for a saltwater fix.
Now, here’s the standout. Monday the 21st is the one to circle. Overnight, a proper south groundswell rolls in—10ft at 12 seconds, with strong energy (2329). Tuesday morning is glassy, offshore, and it’s a solid, powerful reef wave. That’s expert territory—over 8ft, so leave the foamy at home. This is the best stretch on offer, but it’s still a week out, so treat it as promising, not guaranteed. The afternoon cleans up with a cross-off, still solid at 7ft.
The following few days are junk—big onshore winds, rain, and dropping swell. A couple of small windows around the 28th might give you clean, tiny waves, but nothing to write home about. The long-period south swell on the 29th is there, but it’s small and inconsistent, prone to closing out at this break.
There’s a stretch from about the 22nd to the 27th where it’s basically flat and blown out. If you’re not surfing, you’re not missing much. But that Monday 21st window? That’s the one.
Stay patient, check the tides, and I’ll see you out there.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Thu night. Very mild (max 17°C on Thu morning, min 9°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummarySome drizzle, heaviest during Sun afternoon. Very mild (max 15°C on Sat afternoon, min 8°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | Sunday 20 | Monday 21 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 11 | S 10 | S 9 | SSE 9 | SE 9 | SE 12 | SE 10 | SE 9 | SE 14 | SE 12 | SE 12 | SE 12 | SE 12 | SE 11 | SSW 14 | SE 11 | S 8 | S 9 | S 12 | S 11 | S 10 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 434 | 332 | 207 | 140 | 112 | 224 | 138 | 122 | 127 | 248 | 228 | 197 | 130 | 147 | 289 | 137 | 1204 | 1088 | 2277 | 1137 | 426 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | on | cross-on | on | cross | cross-on | glassy | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross-on | glassy | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 8:52PM1.71m | 9:14AM1.76m | 9:39PM1.68m | 9:58AM1.72m | 10:25PM1.64m | 10:45AM1.66m | 11:11PM1.59m | 11:34AM1.60m | 11:55PM1.52m | 12:25PM1.54m | 00:41AM1.44m | 1:14PM1.49m | 1:29AM1.38m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 2:43PM0.29m | 3:05AM0.33m | 3:31PM0.34m | 3:51AM0.39m | 4:19PM0.39m | 4:38AM0.42m | 5:05PM0.42m | 5:24AM0.45m | 5:53PM0.44m | 6:09AM0.46m | 6:41PM0.45m | 6:53AM0.45m | 7:29PM0.44m | ||||||||
 | |  | | | |  |  |  | | |  | | | | |  | | | | | |
 | 6:09 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:07 | — | — | 6:05 | — | — | 6:03 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — |
 | — | 5:58 | — | — | 5:59 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:00 | — | — | 6:01 | — | — | 6:02 | — | — | 6:02 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 15 | 15 | 12 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 17 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 16 | 13 |
Feels °C | 12 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 11 | S 10 | S 9 | SSE 9 | SE 9 | SE 12 | SE 10 | SE 9 | SE 11 | SE 12 | SE 12 | S 7 | S 7 | SSW 7 | SSW 14 | SE 11 | ESE 11 | SE 10 | S 12 | S 11 | S 10 |
| kJ | 434 | 332 | 207 | 140 | 112 | 224 | 138 | 122 | 110 | 248 | 228 | 123 | 106 | 67 | 289 | 137 | 76 | 54 | 2277 | 1137 | 426 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 16 | S 16 | NE 4 | SSW 9 | SE 12 | SSW 9 | S 8 | NE 4 | NE 6 | NE 6 | SSW 16 | SE 12 | SE 12 | SE 11 | SE 11 | SSW 11 | SSW 16 | S 17 | SE 10 | SE 10 | SE 10 |
| kJ | 44 | 19 | 13 | 17 | 53 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 33 | 6 | 53 | 197 | 130 | 147 | 194 | 37 | 51 | 90 | 52 | 51 | 48 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 13 | E 13 | S 15 | SE 12 | SSW 9 | SSW 13 | S 14 | SSW 15 | SE 14 | SSW 18 | ENE 9 | SSW 16 | S 15 | S 9 | ENE 10 | SSW 14 | — | SSW 19 | — | — | NNE 3 |
| kJ | 3 | 3 | 17 | 25 | 25 | 17 | 16 | 23 | 127 | 30 | 8 | 51 | 113 | 45 | 9 | 36 | — | 70 | — | — | 1 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | ENE 3 | NNE 5 | WNW 2 | — | — | NNW 3 | NNW 3 | NNE 6 | SSW 6 | S 6 | — | — | — | — | SW 7 | S 8 | S 9 | — | — | — |
| kJ | — | 5 | 33 | 1 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 85 | 193 | 215 | — | — | — | — | 75 | 1204 | 1088 | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 33 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 133 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Gisborne and Mahia | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Blacks Reef Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Blacks Reef provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Blacks Reef can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Blacks Reef surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Blacks Reef) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Blacks Reef may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Blacks Reef is 50 km (31 miles) from the city of Gisborne. If you plan a holiday in Gisborne and Mahia, look for hotels and other accommodation in Gisborne. Gisborne has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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