Blacks Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Gather ’round, crew. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a 16-day window for Blacks Reef, and it’s a slow builder that finally delivers some heat. This is a reef break, which is a good thing for the long-period groundswells that are coming—they’ll bend in and reel off nicely here. The water temp is sitting at 54°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want a good steamer.

Right now, Sunday the 30th is a write-off. We’ve got a weak 2ft S swell with the combined energy barely registering (93), and it’s coming in with a mean cross-on shore wind. Just don’t bother paddling out. Monday the 31st sees the swell start to pick up. Morning has a 3ft S swell but it’s short period (10 seconds) and the wind is trash. The afternoon jumps to 6ft S, period 14 seconds, but again the cross-shore wind chops it up. The combined energy jumps to (1276), so there’s power, but the conditions are marginal. Not worth your time unless you’re desperate.

Tuesday the 1st of September gets wild, but in a messy way. Big 10ft S swell with a solid 12-second period hits—combined energy is cooking (2868). But the wind is onshore in the morning and cross-on in the afternoon. This is a reef, so that much swell with that much wind is going to be a washing machine. Stay out of the water. Wednesday the 2nd is where things get interesting. Morning is still a bit blown out with 8ft S, 14-second swell (energy at 3307). But Wednesday afternoon? That’s the standout of the whole outlook. We’ve got a solid 10ft S swell from the south, period stretching out to 17 seconds—that’s very long-period groundswell. Combined energy is roaring at (4501). Best part: the wind goes light offshore out of the north at 6 mph. That’s clean, that’s glassy, and this reef is going to turn that long-period energy into some serious, walled-up waves. This is for experienced surfers only—10ft is no joke on a reef. If you’re not confident, watch from the rocks. This is the session to circle on your calendar.

After that, things mellow out quick. Thursday the 3rd and Friday the 4th drop back down into the 5ft to 3ft range with cross-shore wind and much lower energy. The consistency falls away. Saturday the 5th is tiny—2ft S, period 9 seconds—and the combined energy is barely a whisper at (103). The afternoon cleans up with a light cross-off wind, but it’s just not exciting. A kook might get a couple of ankle-biters.

Sunday the 6th of September is a maybe. It’s a 3ft S swell but with a very long 18-second period, giving it some punch (683). The wind is light cross-off, so it’ll be clean, but the size is small. For a reef like this, that long period might make it break a bit too straight. It’s a low-key, very session for the patient. Monday the 7th continues the trend of small, clean surf—2ft S with offshore wind, but combined energy is down to 166. Not much to report.

Then we hit a flat run. From Tuesday the 8th through Saturday the 12th, the swell stays under 4ft, period is short (7-9 seconds), and onshore winds dominate for most of it. The combined energy stays under 200 most of the time. This is a real lull. If you’re looking for waves in this stretch, you’re better off with a different hobby.

Now, looking way out to Sunday the 13th of September—this is the second standout, but it comes with a major caveat. The forecast is showing a massive 12ft to 13ft SSW swell, period 10 seconds, with light cross-on wind. The combined energy is monstrous (2714 to 3326). The guidance says wind and tide are favorable, but that swell is predicted to be too big for this break. At those sizes, on a reef, this is a code-red, life-threatening situation for all but the absolute top-tier chargers. For 100% of surfers, this is a look-don’t-touch day. It’s also 13 days out, so take it with a grain of salt, but keep an eye on it. Monday the 14th sees that swell drop back to 8ft, period 10 seconds, but with strong onshore winds, so it’s back to poor conditions.

Bottom line: Wednesday afternoon, the 2nd of September, is your one true standout—big, clean, heavy, and for experts only. The 13th is a wildcard if you’re insane and the forecast holds. Otherwise, this forecast is a two-wave show in a 16-day desert.

Rusty.

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