Blacks Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. It’s been a bit of a slow start, but we’ve got some real gems hiding in this 16-day window for Blacks Reef. Let’s get into it.

First up, the water is sitting at 55°, which is about normal for this time of year, so nothing wild there.

The early part of the week is a write-off. Sunday and Monday (6th-7th Sept) are tiny and weak, with a combined energy of just 129 (moderate) dropping to 90 (weak). The wind is messy, and the swell is barely there. Honestly, not worth paddling out for. Tuesday (8th Sept) sees a big jump in size, with 12ft swell from the South, but the wind is howling onshore at 22 mph, making it a total mess. The energy is huge at 1895, but it’s a washing machine. That’s kite-surfing territory, not paddle surfing.

Wednesday morning (9th Sept) is the first real glimmer. We get a 6ft swell from the SE with glassy conditions – wind is a whisper at 3 mph. The energy is a solid 425 (moderate). It’s clean, but the swell direction isn’t ideal for the break. Still, for a quick session, it’s the best we’ve seen so far.

Then we hit a dry spell. Thursday (10th) through Saturday (12th) are ordinary at best, with small, weak swells and onshore winds. Not worth the drive.

Now, the standout. Sunday, 13th September is a beast. The swell jumps to 23ft from the SSW, with a very long period of 16 seconds. The combined energy is a staggering 40,517 (very strong). This is a proper groundswell. But – and this is a big but – the data says the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. The wind is cross-onshore at 12 mph, so it’s not clean. This is strictly for experts only, and even then, it’s a maybe. The long period means it’ll be breaking too straight at a beach break, but this is a reef, so it might offer some shape. Still, that size is intimidating.

The real highlight for the experienced crew is Monday, 14th September. We’ve got a 8ft S swell with a 13-second period, and the wind is offshore from the North at 6 mph. Combined energy is 2,175 (strong). That’s solid, clean, and powerful. It’s going to be a proper session for those who know what they’re doing. The data says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers” – and I agree. The crowds are likely here, but with that quality, it’s worth it.

Tuesday morning (15th Sept) is a close second, with 6ft S swell and light offshore winds, energy at 1,425. Clean and punchy. By Wednesday afternoon (16th Sept), the swell drops to 4ft, but it’s glassy with a 12-second period from the S, energy at 381. That’s a fun, relaxed afternoon for the longboard.

After that, the swell fades. Thursday (17th) through Saturday (19th) is small and weak, with energy dropping below 100. The wind is messy again. Sunday (20th) and Monday (21st) see another massive blast of swell – 15ft to 18ft from the S and SSW – but the wind is cross-onshore to onshore and strong, making it a total nightmare. Energy is through the roof (7,000+), but it’s unsurfable for anyone but the most hardcore, and even then, it’s ugly.

So, bottom line: if you’re an experienced surfer, Monday 14th September is your day. Clean, strong, and offshore. The Sunday before is a giant, but it’s borderline dangerous. For the rest of us, Wednesday morning (9th) and Wednesday afternoon (16th) offer the cleanest, most manageable waves. The rest is a skip.

Rusty, signing off.

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