Blacks Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s cut through it and get you sorted for the next couple of weeks.

We’ve got a slow start, but there’s a proper window of clean, rippable surf coming up around Friday the 7th, and then it looks like it’s going to get big and angry for a stretch after that. The early part of the week is a write-off, so don’t bother paddling out until we see the back of the wind.

Wednesday the 5th and Thursday the 6th are basically a no-go. We’re looking at strong south-west winds, rain, and messy, onshore conditions. Thursday afternoon does ease a bit, but the surf will still be lumpy and pretty average. Not worth the hassle.

The standout run kicks off Friday morning, the 7th. This is where it gets good. We’ve got a proper groundswell filling in from the south, with a long period of 17 seconds. The wind drops right out, going glassy, and the waves at Blacks Reef (Big Island) will be clean and lined up. It’s a beginner-friendly reef, but don’t let that fool you – with a 4ft swell at that long period, there’s plenty of push. The combined energy is a solid 1665, so there’s some real power in the water. The period is long enough to make paddling out a bit easier between sets, too. Friday afternoon stays clean with a 6ft swell and light cross-off breeze. This is your best bet for a quality session.

Saturday the 8th is still very good. The swell drops slightly to 7ft in the morning, still with a 12-second period, and it’s clean. It’s a little more size, but still manageable for most. The afternoon holds at 6ft. The energy is still moderate to strong.

Sunday the 9th sees the swell ease off. Morning is still fun at 4ft, but the afternoon drops to just under 3ft. The wind turns offshore in the afternoon, so there will be some clean, if smaller, waves to finish the weekend.

Monday the 10th through Thursday the 13th is a flat spell. The swell dies right down, and we’re left with dribbly, under-3ft junk. There are a few tiny, clean moments, but honestly, it’s not worth getting wet for. The energy values drop into double digits, which tells you everything you need to know.

Friday the 14th and Saturday the 15th are poor. Strong south-west winds return, the surf is tiny but messy, and the outlook is grim. Not a chance.

Then things get serious. Sunday the 16th is still a mess, but watch out for Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th. A solid pulse of south-west swell arrives. Monday afternoon sees 10ft on the face, and by Tuesday morning it’s pushing 12ft with a 13-second period and a huge energy reading of 3858. This is big, powerful surf. To be clear, this is expert-only territory. Anything over 8ft is just for the crew who know what they’re doing. The tide and wind might be okay, but the size is the issue here. For everyone else, this will be a washout. There’s also a chance that the long period and size will make it close out at the beach breaks, but at Blacks Reef, it might have a bit more shape. Still, this is for experts only.

The long-range looks promising again. Wednesday the 19th looks like the best of the second week’s swell, with a solid SSE groundswell of 7ft in the morning and clean conditions, dropping to 7ft in the afternoon with glassy winds. That’s a promising window, but it’s a week and a half out, so treat it as such.

One more thing – the water on Wednesday the 5th is 55°, which is a bit colder than average for this time of year. So suit up warm for the first surf break that’s worth it on Friday.

So, bottom line: Friday the 7th is your standout day, with Saturday the 8th a close second. The following Tuesday is for the daredevils only. The rest is either flat or blown out.

Catch you in the water.

Rusty.

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