Avoca Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Avoca Point. It’s a bit of a mixed bag over the next couple of weeks, with a lot of flat spells and noisy conditions to wade through. The water temp is sitting right around average for this time of year at 65°, nothing out of the ordinary there.

We kick off Thursday the 3rd and Friday morning, but honestly, it’s not worth paddling out. The swell is tiny, only 2ft to 4ft, and the winds are a mess. Thursday has cross-shore winds and the energy is weak (76). Friday morning looks cleaner with a light offshore from the SW, but with only 4ft of S swell and a period of 11 seconds, it’s just not enough to get excited about. The combined energy is only 299, so it’s pretty weak.

Saturday and Sunday are a write-off. The swell is small and the wind is cross or onshore, creating chop. The energy is low (104, 62, 77). Sunday afternoon does kick up a bit of size, hitting 5ft from the S with a 12-second period, and the wind is cross-offshore, so it’s clean. The energy jumps to 640, but it’s marked as marginal, so it’s a bit of a gamble.

Monday the 7th is a no-go, with onshore winds and a messy 4ft swell. The real standout is Tuesday the 8th. That morning we see a solid 8ft S swell with a 9-second period, and the wind is cross-offshore, keeping it clean. The combined energy is a massive 2121, so there’s plenty of power. That’s expert territory, as it’s over 8ft, and it’s a beach and point setup, so the long-period caveat doesn’t apply much here. The crowd profile mentions “sometimes,” so you might have company, but it’s the best on offer.

The rest of the first week is a bit of a letdown. Wednesday the 9th has a 3ft S swell but the wind is strong, gusting to 22 mph, making it messy. Thursday the 10th has a 8ft SSE swell, but again, the wind is strong and the period is short at 8 seconds, so it’s not pretty.

The second week starts to look a bit more promising. Friday the 11th is a real highlight. The morning session has a 6ft SSE swell, an 11-second period, and a light offshore from the SW. The combined energy is 869, and it’s expected to be very good surf conditions. The wind is light, so it’ll be clean. That’s the one to circle on the calendar. Saturday the 12th is smaller and onshore, so it’s not as good.

After that, it’s a long dry spell. From Sunday the 13th right through to the end of the 16-day window on the 18th, the swell drops away to nothing. We’re looking at 0.7ft to 2ft for days on end, with weak energy (as low as 18). The wind is either onshore or cross, so the waves are just not there. There is a very small spike on the 18th with a 2ft SSE swell and a very long 18-second period, giving energy of 368, but it’s marginal and the swell is too small to do anything with.

So, to wrap it up: the best bet is Tuesday the 8th for the big, powerful 8ft swell, and Friday the 11th for the clean, solid 6ft swell with light offshore winds. Everything else is either too small, too windy, or just plain flat.

Rusty.

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