Avoca Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Grab a coffee and listen up. It’s Rusty here, and I’m looking at the charts for Avoca Point. Honestly, it’s a bit of a tough stretch ahead. We’re in for a long, slow period with very little to get excited about, especially for the first week or so. There's a lot of waiting for the magic to happen, so patience is the name of the game.

The water temperature is sitting at 65°F, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year, so no surprises there.

We start off on Wednesday the 2nd and it's pretty grim. The swell is tiny at 2ft from the south, and the wind is a messy cross-shore. The energy in the water is weak, barely registering 118. It’s just not worth paddling out. Thursday and Friday don’t get much better, with the swell staying under 3ft and the conditions looking average at best. There's a brief moment on Friday morning with a clean 3ft south swell and light offshore winds from the SSW, but it's still pretty ordinary, with combined energy at 195. It's rideable, but you won't be telling your mates about it.

The weekend is a write-off. The wind picks up and chops everything to bits. Sunday morning has a small, short period swell (2ft at 7 seconds) and offshore wind, but again, it's weak and ordinary. Sunday afternoon looks a bit bigger at 4ft from the south with moderate wave energy (436), but the cross-shore wind ruins it. Don't bother.

Early next week – Monday the 7th and Tuesday the 8th – remains poor. The swell is small and the winds are onshore or cross-onshore. Tuesday morning has a glimmer of hope with a glassy 3ft SSE swell, but the energy is still weak (137) and the conditions are only described as "surfable but ordinary." You could get a few, but it’s nothing special.

Now, here’s the standout, and it’s a big one, but you have to wait for it. On Thursday the 10th, we get a massive pulse of swell. We’re looking at a solid 12ft south swell, with a period of 9-10 seconds. The combined energy is enormous – 2074 – so this is proper, powerful stuff. The wind is light and favourable, and the conditions are clean. But, and this is a huge but, this is way too big for Avoca Point. This swell will be a washing machine, only for the most experienced and fearless crew. For everyone else, it’s a day to watch from the shore. It’s a real shame because the conditions are otherwise perfect.

After that massive event, it starts to drop but remains too big or messy. Friday the 11th is still a chunky 8ft, but with onshore winds, it’s not good. The rest of that week and into the next is a mix of small, weak swells and poor wind, with the odd day of clean but small waves. The 13th has a clean 5ft from the east but with a very short 6-second period, so it won't have much punch. The energy is moderate (270).

Further out, into the second week, things look bleak. The swells are small, the winds are often strong, and the energy drops right off. The 17th has a tiny 0.7ft swell with a very long 13-second period, but the wind is howling at 22 mph. It’s just not happening.

So, what’s the call? The only real highlight is the massive swell on Thursday the 10th, but it’s strictly for experts. For everyone else, the best bet is probably that small, clean window on Friday the 5th morning, or the glassy but small window on Tuesday the 8th morning. But honestly, you’re better off waiting for the next proper swell after this long run of poor conditions.

Rusty.

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