Aoshima Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for Aoshima over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, it’s a quiet start. Monday the 20th through most of the following weekend, we’re looking at small, weak energy rolling in. The waves are there, but they’re tiny – waist-high at best, around 2ft from the east, and the periods are short, so the power just isn't there. The combined swell energy is barely breaking triple digits (74 to 111), so it’s a bit of a limp start. Glassy conditions early Monday morning are a bonus, but the swell is too small to get excited about. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings bring some glassy windows too, but again, the size is just too small to make it a worthwhile paddle.

Now, we see a shift come Monday the 27th of July. That morning, the wind goes glassy with a light southeast breeze, and we get a jump in swell – 6ft from the southeast with a 12-second period. Combined energy hits 928, so there's some proper weight behind it now. That’s the pick of the early period. It’s a reef break, so that longer-period groundswell will wrap in nicely. The morning looks clean and surfable, and while Aoshima can get a crowd, it's only sometimes, so keep your eyes open but don’t stress too much. The water temp anomaly doesn’t show any major deviation, so the water is about average for this time of year. That Monday afternoon, the wind goes cross and kicks up a touch, so stick to the morning.

Things really start to get heavy towards the end of July and into August. By Tuesday the 28th, we’re looking at 10ft plus from the SSE, with the combined energy over 3000 – that’s serious, powerful stuff. But here’s the rub: the wind turns onshore and stays there for days. Wednesday the 29th through Friday the 31st is a write-off for a surf. The swell just gets bigger and bigger – we’re talking 13ft, then 23ft, with energy readings in the thousands and tens of thousands – but the wind is a horrible cross-onshore, gale force at times. It’s blown out, lumpy, and dangerous. This kind of setup is honestly more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer.

Even when the wind eases a bit on Saturday the 1st and Sunday the 2nd of August, the swell is still massive – 21ft to 23ft. The break is simply too big for Aoshima. The forecast notes say it’s too big for the break, and I’d be telling you the same thing. Unless you’re an absolute expert with a death wish, stay out.

The story changes on Monday the 3rd of August. The swell drops to 16ft from the southeast, the wind goes cross-off and clean, and the combined energy is still massive at 14429, but the wind is finally workable. It’s a “marginal” call, and the size is still big, but the conditions are infinitely better. That said, the best on offer is the morning of Tuesday the 4th of August. The wind goes glassy, we get a 7ft swell from the east with a massive 18-second period – that’s proper long-period groundswell. The combined energy is 3588, so plenty of grunt. That’s the standout for me. The only catch is at a reef, that long period can make it a bit straight, but with glassy conditions and that size, it’ll be an incredible session for experienced surfers.

So, to wrap it up: early days are small and weak. The middle of the period is either blown out or way too big. Your best windows are the morning of Monday the 27th of July for a clean, fun-sized day, and then the morning of Tuesday the 4th of August for the real gem. It’s a long-range standout, so don’t set your watch by it, but it’s promising.

Rusty.

Read more