Aoshima Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, this is Rusty. Let’s be straight with you – the next week and a bit at Aoshima is a tough run. We’ve got some tiny, ordinary waves and a lot of cross-shore chop, so don’t get your hopes up. The real story starts to show itself around Thursday the 30th of July, when a proper clean-up sets in. Before that, we’re looking at a long, dull stretch.

From Sunday the 19th right through to Saturday the 26th of July, it’s mostly knee-high dribble. Swell hangs around 1ft to 2ft from the east, with weak wave energy (69 to 111). The mornings are glassy, which is nice, but the afternoons get chewed up by a southerly breeze. The water temp is sitting at 82°, which is about normal for this time of year – nothing to write home about. The best of this early period is Tuesday the 22nd of July morning, when a little bump in period to 11 seconds pushes the energy to 111, but it’s still just surfable, not exciting.

Sunday the 27th of July morning sees a jump in period to 14 seconds, and energy climbs to 199, but the wind is cross-shore, so it’s messy. The swell direction starts swinging more southerly, and by Monday the 28th of July, we’ve got a solid 6ft to 7ft south-east swell with a very long 15-second period. That’s proper groundswell, but the wind is cross-onshore to onshore, gusting 12 mph, and the energy is screaming (up to 2111). It’s a messy, blown-out mess for the crowd – only experts would even look at it. Tuesday the 29th of July gets even bigger, with 8ft and 8ft swells and fresh cross-onshore winds up to 22 mph. That’s kitesurfing territory, not paddle surfing.

Then, finally, Thursday the 30th of July morning turns it around. The wind swings to a light westerly-northwesterly cross-offshore, the swell drops to a clean 6ft from the east-southeast, with a 12-second period and moderate energy (935). The outlook says “expect very good surf conditions” – and that’s the standout. Aoshima reef will be clean, with proper, peeling waves. The afternoon holds at 5ft, still cross-offshore, still clean. That’s your session.

Friday the 31st of July morning is glassy, with a 4ft east swell and 11-second period, energy at 443. It’s good, but not as punchy as the day before. The afternoon turns onshore and messy again.

The first week of August looks like a write-off. Saturday the 1st of August morning has a 3ft east swell, but the wind is a strong cross-onshore at 16 mph, and by afternoon it’s a near gale at 31 mph. Sunday the 2nd of August is onshore and stormy with 3ft to 3ft swells but very long 15-second periods – the energy is high (602 to 934), but the wind is howling. Monday the 3rd of August brings another 6ft to 6ft south-east swell with a very long 16-second period, but it’s cross-onshore and choppy again. No good for a paddle.

So, the real standout is Thursday the 30th of July. That’s the one to circle. The swell is solid, the wind is clean, and the reef will be working. The rest is either too small, too windy, or both. Hang in there.

Rusty.

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