Aoshima Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, let’s get into it. We’re looking at a pretty mixed bag for the next couple of weeks. Spring is starting to show its teeth, but for the first week, you’ll be battling the weather.

The water is sitting at a warm 84°, which is about 0.5° above the long-term average, so it’s feeling pretty normal for the time of year. Nothing out of the ordinary there.

We’ve got a bit of a wait for the first decent session. The early part of the run is a bit of a write-off, but things start to look up around the 5th of September.

Friday, 28th August kicks off with a bit of a tease. The morning has a clean 4 ft cross-off swell from the SSE, but with a short 7-second period, it’s not packing much punch. The energy is weak (238). It’s rideable, but don’t expect much. The afternoon goes downhill with a cross-shore breeze and poor surf.

Saturday, 29th August is a bit of a letdown. The morning swell drops to 2 ft from the East, but with a nice 12-second period, it’s got a bit of shape. The energy is still weak (220). It’s clean, but tiny. The afternoon is a write-off.

Sunday, 30th August is glassy in the morning! 2 ft from the East, 11-second period. The energy is really weak (126). It’s surfable for a longboard or a foiler, but it’s not a day for a proper shortboard.

Monday, 31st August through to Thursday, 3rd September is a total mess. We’ve got storm risk, onshore winds, and a building swell that gets big and ugly. The energy climbs from moderate (371) to very strong (3031), but it’s all blown out. This is more of a kite-surfing window than a paddling one, especially with the 12 ft+ cross-shore slop on Wednesday and Thursday.

Friday, 4th September stays messy. The swell drops to 7 ft from the SE, but the wind is still howling.

Now, let’s talk about the standout. Saturday, 5th September morning is the one to circle. The forecast calls for a solid 10 ft swell from the ESE, with a 10-second period. The energy is cooking (2412). The wind is a light cross-off from the South, which should keep the waves at Aoshima clean. This is for experienced surfers only – that’s a big, powerful wave. The afternoon is a bit smaller but still clean.

Sunday, 6th September morning is the biggest of the run. We’re looking at 15 ft from the SE, with a 12-second period. The energy is massive (6777). This is a serious, heavy groundswell. The wind is a light cross-shore, so it could be lined up, but at that size, it’s only for the brave. It’s a marginal call due to the size.

Monday, 7th September through Tuesday, 8th September is a return to poor conditions. Strong onshore winds and a lot of energy (4528) that’s just going to be a washing machine.

Wednesday, 9th September morning is a dud with heavy rain, but the afternoon shows a glimmer of hope. The wind goes offshore from the WSW, cleaning up a 3 ft swell from the SE. It’s small, but it’s clean.

Thursday, 10th September morning is a classic. Glassy conditions, 4 ft from the ESE, 10-second period. The energy is moderate (282). This is a proper fun-sized wave for a log or a mid-length.

Friday, 11th September is another absolute gem. The morning is glassy with 4 ft from the ESE, 10-second period. The energy is moderate (542). This is going to be a beautiful, clean day. The afternoon gets a bit of a cross-onshore breeze, but it’s still 6 ft from the SE.

Saturday, 12th September fades out with onshore winds and lumpy conditions.

So, to wrap it up: the best bets are Saturday 5th morning for the big, clean swell, and Friday 11th morning for the glassy, fun-sized waves. The first week is a write-off unless you’re chasing wind, and the second week has two solid windows.

Rusty.

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