Aoshima Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Lookin’ at the 16-day window for Miyazaki, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got some serious size showing up later on, but the wind and conditions are gonna make it hard to score clean waves for a good stretch. There’s a real gap at the start with nothing worthwhile, and then a big pulse of energy that’s more for the brave or the kiter.

We kick off with a quiet run from Saturday the 22nd to Sunday the 23rd. The swell is tiny, only 2ft from the SSE and E, but it's all cross-onshore, creating small wind ripples. The combined wave energy is weak (126 to 182), and it’s just poor surf. Not worth paddling out for.

Come Monday the 24th, things start to shift. Monday morning sees a small 2ft ESE swell creep in, with a very long period of 20 seconds. The combined energy bumps to a moderate 538, but it's onshore and wind is light. The afternoon gets more interesting – a 6.2ft ESE groundswell, with that real long 17-second period, drives the energy up to a strong 2134. But it's onshore wind again, so we’re looking at marginal conditions at best. That long period will make it fat and walled-up at this exposed reef break, but the wind kills it.

Then we hit a wall of huge ugly energy. From Tuesday the 25th right through to Wednesday the 26th, a powerful SE swell builds. Tuesday morning we’ve got 13ft at 16 seconds with 19 mph cross-onshore winds and a combined energy of a whopping 9596. The afternoon hits 15ft at 16 seconds with 22 mph onshore winds, energy at 10609. Wednesday is just as wild – 15ft at 13 seconds with 28 mph cross-onshore winds, energy at 6740. This is way over 8ft, so it’s expert-only territory, and with those strong winds and a big chunk of sea energy, it’s messy as hell. Honestly, this looks more like a kite-surfing scenario than a paddle session. Aoshima is an exposed reef, but onshore winds and giant chop make it a no-go.

Thursday the 27th sees the swell drop a bit but still remain big. We’ve got 8.2ft to 9.8ft from the SSE, with moderate cross-shore winds. Energy stays moderate to strong (1158-2692). The surf is still marginal, but at least the size is dropping into a more manageable range for experienced surfers. The periods drop to 9 seconds, so it’s a shorter, weaker wind swell on top of the background.

Friday the 28th into Saturday the 29th sees the swell drop further, with 5.2ft to 5.9ft from the SE, but it’s onshore and chasing rain showers. Not much to get excited about. Combined energy falls back to 271-631. Poor or marginal.

Now, Sunday the 30th and Monday the 31st. The swell starts to fill in again. Sunday morning brings back a 6.2ft ESE groundswell with a 13-second period, energy at a healthy 1416. Wind is light onshore, but it’s still marginal. Monday the 31st is our first real standout for the window, but it’s not perfect. Monday morning offers 7.9ft from the ESE at 12 seconds. Combined energy is solid at 1553, and the wind is a light cross-onshore at 6 mph. That’s light enough to smooth things out, and the score is our highest so far at a 3. The afternoon pushes 8.2ft with a bit more period at 13 seconds, energy hitting 2112. It’s still onshore but building. For an exposed reef, this is the best on offer early in the window. It’s not polished, but there’ll be power.

The real standout, though, is Tuesday the 1st of September. It’s a good week and a half out, so take it as promising but not locked in. Tuesday afternoon shows 13ft from the E at 11 seconds, with a combined energy of 6964. The wind is light onshore from the NE at 9 mph. The score for that session hits a 4, the best rating of the whole run. That’s solid, powerful surf and the wind is manageable. But then Wednesday the

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