Aoshima Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s talk about what’s happening at Aoshima.

Right now, the surf around Aoshima looks pretty ordinary for the first week or so. There’s a big pulse of swell arriving Friday morning, but it’s messy – strong cross-onshore winds, a lot of wind chop, and the water is sitting at 79°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year. The combined energy of all swells directed here is a massive 6305 (that’s very strong wave energy), but it’s coming from the SSE with a 16-second period, which is a long-period groundswell. That kind of swell tends to break too straight on beach breaks, so at a reef spot like Aoshima, it might actually hold shape, but the wind is blowing straight onshore from the east, killing any chance of clean surf. The condition is described as marginal, and I wouldn’t get too excited. Over the weekend, the swell drops a bit but the wind stays cross-onshore, keeping things choppy.

Monday morning, 13 July, sees the swell dropping to 5ft from the SSE, with a 11-second period and a light cross-offshore wind – that’s clean. The combined energy is 464 (moderate). It’s not huge, but it’s the best window in the first few days. After that, Tuesday and Wednesday get tiny, with glassy conditions on the 14th morning for 3ft, but the energy is weak (146) and the wave height is small. Don’t expect much.

The real standout is Thursday, 23 July morning. After a long, bleak stretch of poor surf, the swell picks up to 5ft from the east with a 11-second period, glassy wind, and the combined energy sits at 537 (moderate). The forecast says “expect very good surf conditions” – that’s a bright spot. Aoshima is a reef, so that long-period groundswell from the east will line up nicely, and with glassy conditions, it’ll be clean. It’s not huge, but it’s the best on offer in the entire 16-day window. The only caveat is that crowds are sometimes a factor here, so you might have company.

Everything else after that drops off fast. From 23 July afternoon through to 25 July, the swell fades to under 3ft, wind turns cross-onshore, and the energy goes weak. There’s a long gap of poor to marginal conditions from around 15 July to 22 July, with only a few flickers of hope. If you’re a beginner, be careful: the 12ft swell on Friday is too big for you, and the 5ft on the 23rd is borderline but manageable with glassy conditions.

Overall, the best bet is Aoshima on the morning of 23 July – get there early for clean, east-swell lines. For the rest of the period, it’s mostly a waiting game.

Rusty.

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