Aoshima Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, I'm Rusty. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for Aoshima over the next couple of weeks. Straight up, the window to get a decent wave is going to be a long and frustrating wait. We're looking at a big gap with mostly poor conditions before anything even becomes rideable, and even then, you'll need to be careful what you pick.

For the first ten days or so, from now through to about the 19th of September, I'd honestly find something else to do. The swell is small and messy, the wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and the forecast is just a write-off. There are a couple of days where the combined energy bumps up a bit, like on the 15th with a reading of 357 (moderate), but it's paired with risk of thunderstorms and cross-onshore breezes. You’re looking at a fair bit of chop and poor surf quality.

Now, the week starting the 21st of September gets interesting, but only if you know what you’re doing and you’re comfortable in big, heavy water. Aoshima (a reef break) is going to be hit by a serious wall of swell. On Monday the 21st, the morning sees a massive 28 ft swell from the SE with a period of 15 seconds. The combined energy is an enormous 31669 (very strong), and while the wind is a moderate offshore at first, the swell is just too big. This is expert-only territory, and honestly, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. Even the afternoon has a 33 ft swell, but that's 40793 in energy – absolutely pumping, but too dangerous for a standard surf. You'd get towed into something wild if you had the gear.

After that, things drop off quickly into the 22nd with an onshore blow and messy conditions. By the 24th, the swell is tiny at 2 ft, even with clean offshore winds. It’s not worth a paddle.

The best chance for a decent surf actually comes at the very end of the forecast, on Friday the 25th of September. Friday morning shows a 6 ft swell from the ESE at a solid 16 seconds (a true groundswell). The energy is at 1614 (moderate to strong), and the wind is light and cross-shore, almost glassy. This is the standout. A long-period swell like this is best for a reef or point break like Aoshima, and the water is around 82°, which is about average for the time of year. It's a bit on the bigger side for a beginner, but for anyone else, this is the window. Crowds can be a thing here sometimes, so get out early. Saturday the 26th still has size – up to 10 ft – but the wind swings cross-onshore and it gets choppier, and at that size it's getting out of intermediate territory.

So, in short, it's a slow burner. Sit through the first week and a half of nothing, then prepare for either a massive, dangerous swell or the one golden window on the 25th. Keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

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