Aoshima Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cooking for Aoshima over the next couple of weeks. I gotta be straight with you – it’s a rough start. We’ve got a solid window of time where the ocean is just not cooperating. The first recommendation for a surf doesn't even roll around until the 14th of August, so we’re looking at a dry spell of over a week before anything worth paddling out for shows up.

Aoshima is a reef setup, and it’s fairly consistent, but the winds early on are just ugly. The water temp is sitting at 85°, which is about normal for this time of year, no shock there. But from the start of the month through to the 13th, we’re stuck with a run of poor conditions. A massive swell comes through on the 6th and 7th of August – we’re talking 21ft and 20ft of swell from the ESE with a very long period of 15 to 17 seconds (combined energy readings of 29,626 and 35,289). That’s a *lot* of water, but it’s a mix of strong onshore and cross-onshore winds, and the wave comment is clear: too big for this break. That’s expert-only territory, and even then, the wind is gonna make it a sloppy mess. The rest of that first week is just one poor surf condition after another with fresh to strong breezes messing up the face.

Things start to settle down a little around the 12th and 13th, but it’s only marginal. The swell drops to 5ft and then 3ft, period hangs around 11 seconds, but it's still cross-onshore. Not worth getting wet for.

Now, here’s a tiny glimmer. On the morning of the 14th of August, we get a moment of pure glass. The wind goes glassy from the NNE, and the swell is a tiny 2ft from the south with a period of 9 seconds. The wave comment says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” For a reef break, that’s a long-period groundswell, but it’s small. It’s the only time in the first two weeks where the wind is truly clean. The 15th of August morning also has a glassy moment with a 2ft swell from the east, but it's the same story – small and ordinary. If you’re desperate for a longboard or a funboard, those two mornings are your best bet, but don’t expect anything firing.

The 17th sees a bit of a bump in size, with 6ft on the Monday afternoon, but the wind is onshore and fresh, so it’s poor again. The 18th and 19th bring more swell, up to 7ft and then 12ft, and even a lovely 14-second period on the 19th, but the wind is cross-on and strong. The 20th of August finally shows a shift to a cross-shore breeze from the SE, with a 8ft swell from the east at 12 seconds (combined energy of 1,754). That’s a moderate energy, and the conditions are described as “marginal.” It’s not great, but it’s the best of the lot in the second week. The direction is east, and Aoshima’s optimum swell direction is SE, so it’s a bit off, but at least the wind is finally cross-shore.

Honestly, the standout? There isn’t a true one. The 14th morning’s glassy conditions are the only clean window, but it’s tiny. If you’re a beginner, the swell on the 14th and 15th is small enough (2ft), but when it does get bigger later in the window, it’s either too big or the wind is trash. The 20th has the best combo of size and wind, but it’s still marginal. Keep an eye on the forecasts, because this run of poor surf can’t last forever.

Rusty.

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