Aoshima Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – this is a tough run for Aoshima. Over the next couple of weeks, we’re staring at mostly rubbish conditions. There’s a decent pulse of swell, but the wind is just relentless, hammering the place from the north-east and east-north-east day after day. The first week is a write-off for any decent paddle surfing. We’ve got a moderate combined swell energy hitting the reef, peaking at 3363 (moderate-strong energy) on the 7th, but with onshore and cross-onshore winds gusting up to 31 mph, it’s blown out, choppy, and not worth a look. For beginners, some of these swells push over 8 ft which is expert-only anyway, and the short, 8-second period means weak, lumpy waves. Honestly, this stretch looks more interesting for kite surfing than a proper surf. The water temp is sitting at 84°F with a 1°F anomaly, so pretty average for this time of year – nothing to write home about.

Then, we finally get a window. On the morning of Thursday, September 10th, the wind swings west at 9 mph, going light offshore and clean. The swell drops to 4 ft from the ESE with a 9-second period, and a combined energy of 408 (moderate). It’s small but it’s clean – the first real chance for a paddle. Aoshima is an exposed reef, fairly consistent, and with a SE optimum direction, this ESE swell will work. The water’s still warm and the glassy morning will make for a nice session, though it’s not big, so beginners will be fine.

The real standout, and the best on offer in this whole outlook, is Wednesday, September 16th. Mark it. The morning brings a glassy 10 ft swell from the ESE with a 10-second period, and the wind swings to a slight 3 mph west – absolutely glassy. The combined energy is a strong 2144. That’s a solid, powerful groundswell hitting the reef. It’s too big for beginners – over 8 ft – so this is for experienced surfers only. The afternoon stays just as good, with the swell holding at 10 ft from the SE, a longer 11-second period, and a light 9 mph south wind going cross-offshore, keeping it clean. Crowds are listed as “sometimes” at Aoshima, so you might have company but it won’t be a zoo.

The rest of the second week fades fast. There’s a glassy morning on the 17th but with only 3 ft and weak energy, it’s a dribbler. The 18th is similar – tiny, glassy but ordinary.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is a total dud with strong, messy winds. The clean patch on the 10th is a small but welcome window, and the main event is the 16th – that’s the one to circle for the experienced crew. After that, it drops right off. Don’t hold your breath for consistency here; this is a blank run that feels normal for this stretch.

Rusty.

Read more