Aoshima Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break it down in feet and miles-per-hour, ‘cause that’s how we feel it sometimes.

The first surfable window is from Tuesday 21 July. The waves are tiny, only about 2ft, and coming from the east. The water temp is about average for the time of year. The morning of the 21st is glassy – a dead calm, 5 km/h breeze out of the ENE – which makes those tiny, clean waves surprisingly fun for a longboard or a foamie. The combined swell energy is weak (82). It’s pretty ordinary but the lack of chop makes it workable.

The 22nd and 23rd follow the same pattern: small, knee-high swell (2ft to 2ft) with glassy mornings. The 22nd’s morning has a period of 11 seconds, which is a touch of groundswell energy, giving the waves a bit more shape, with combined energy hitting 111 (moderate). The 24th and 25th drop off even more, with 2ft and 1ft waves. Still glassy in the mornings, but it’s barely a ripple.

Then we get a kick. The 26th (Sunday) morning sees a jump to 3ft from the SSE, with a period of 10 seconds and combined energy of 208 (moderate). The wind is glassy again. This is probably the best *small wave* session of the early run. The 27th (Monday) morning keeps it up with 3ft, a longer period of 11 seconds, and energy up to 360. Clean, glassy conditions. For a beginner or a longboarder, these mornings are the pick.

Now, the 28th (Tuesday) is where things get interesting but messy. The swell jumps to 8ft from the SE, with a combined energy of 1482 (strong). That’s a solid, powerful wave. But the wind is onshore (NE at 10 km/h) and the conditions are a bit unknown. At 8ft, this is pushing into territory for more experienced surfers only. The 29th (Wednesday) is a write-off – 6ft swell but with a screaming 40 km/h NNE cross-onshore wind, making it a total choppy mess. The energy is still strong (724), but it’s unsurfable.

From the 30th through the 1st of August, the wind stays strong (25-30 km/h) and cross-onshore, with waves fluctuating between 1ft and 4ft. It’s all poor conditions. The 2nd of August (Sunday) sees a massive spike: 12ft from the ESE, with a combined energy of 4884 – that’s very strong wave energy. But again, 30 km/h onshore wind and a cross-chop. This is way too big for beginners, dangerous for most, and the wind is ruining it. This setup would be more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The 3rd of August (Monday) is similar: 10ft to 12ft swell, but still cross-onshore winds at 25 km/h. The energy is off the charts (2423), but the quality is poor. The 4th (Tuesday) drops to 7ft with onshore wind, still marginal.

The real standout, the one to circle, is the 5th of August (Wednesday) morning. The swell is 6ft from the SE, period of 8 seconds, combined energy of 526 (strong). But the key is the wind: glassy, a 5 km/h NNE breeze. That’s a clean, powerful wave for a reef break. The swell is a bit short-period, but at 6ft it’s a solid size for a good intermediate or expert surfer. It’s likely to be a bit jumbled on the beach, but on the reef at Aoshima, it should hold up. The crowds are *sometimes* an issue, so you might have some company. This is the best on offer in the whole 16 days – a late bloomer that’s worth the wait.

Rusty.

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