Aoshima Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get real about Aoshima. It’s a reef break that’s fairly consistent, exposed to the swell, and when it’s on, it wants something from the SE. But man, for the next week and a half, it’s a tough watch. There’s a massive gap of nothing for the first week, with nothing worth paddling out for from Wednesday the 9th right through the following weekend. The wind is stuck in the NE, cross-on all day, and the wave energy is either weak or just messy. The 10th and 11th see some size but it’s all poor—gusty, choppy, and generally not fun.

The first real glimmer shows on the morning of Saturday the 13th of September. We’ve got a long period groundswell from the E, period a solid 14 seconds, but at only 2ft it’s tiny—paddling out might be easy with those long gaps, but the wave itself is just weak. The energy is a low 231 (weak), and the wind is light cross-on from the NNE. It’s a marginal call at best.

Then, here’s the standout for this region: Monday afternoon, September 14th. The wind goes glassy from the NNE, and we get a clean 4ft wave from the ESE with moderate energy (304). This is the cleanest window we’ve seen in ages. The tide might be an issue, but if you can slot it, this is the most surfable moment in the whole forecast. The break is exposed to that SE optimum direction, so it should line up okay.

Tuesday the 15th afternoon also has glassy conditions from the NW and a slightly bigger 5ft ESE swell with 9-second period—moderate energy (356). Clean waves, but watch for risk of thunderstorms. Crowds are possible there, so if you’re keen, get in before it gets busy.

After that it fades. Wednesday the 17th has a glassy morning but with only 3ft, it’s not really enough. There’s a big spike of energy from the 22nd onward—the combined energy jumps to 2363 on the 22nd and hits 5386 on the 24th (very strong)—but the swell comes with 16 mph cross-onshore winds and huge 10ft waves from the SE with a very long 16-second period. That’s expert-only territory. For the average surfer, that setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, especially on a beach-and-reef setup where that long period will break straight and fast.

So, bottom line: the only real chance to score clean waves is Monday afternoon the 14th or maybe Tuesday afternoon the 15th. Anything past that is either too small, too windy, or too big. Water temp is about average for the time of year, no anomaly noted.

Rusty

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