Aoshima Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here again, but in feet and miles. Let’s look at Aoshima.

The next couple weeks are a tough slog. We’ve got a long stretch of poor conditions kicking off now, running through the first ten days or so, with only a few marginal moments. The real action doesn’t show up until the tail end of the period, so you’ve gotta be patient.

Water temp is about average for the time of year. The combined swell energy is weak to moderate, mostly in the low hundreds, so not much power around.

First real recommendation doesn’t come until Sunday the 13th of September. Sunday morning at Aoshima, we’ve got a small 3ft swell from the ESE with a 9-second period. Light cross-onshore wind keeps it a bit messy, and the energy is weak at 267. It’s marginal, maybe a few knee-high runners if you’re desperate. The break is fairly consistent, but it’s a reef, so watch your feet.

The whole next week is poor. Monday the 14th through Friday the 18th all show onshore wind and short-period windswell. Swell bumps to around 4ft by Tuesday the 15th, but the quality is gone. Combined energy hits the low 300s, but it’s not worth paddling out.

Then things get big. Friday the 18th afternoon brings a long-period groundswell of 4ft at 18 seconds, but the wind is onshore at 15 mph, and the energy jumps to 1630. By Saturday the 19th, it’s a massive 15ft swell from the ESE with a 17-second period and energy over 10,000. That’s huge, powerful, and dangerous. With onshore winds at 22 mph and storms around, this is expert-only. The reef would be handling a ton of water, but it’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle session.

The big swell sticks around through the 20th and 21st, with 10ft to 16ft and strong, messy winds. Then on Tuesday the 22nd, the wind swings cross-off from the SSW at 37 mph in the afternoon, which would clean it up, but the swell is still 16ft from the south. Forecast says it’s too big for this break. Stay out of the water.

Here’s the one good window. After the chaos, on Wednesday the 23rd of September, the morning turns glassy. Wind is offshore from the E at just 3 mph, and the swell drops to a tiny 2ft from the ESE, but with a very long 16-second period. Energy is weak at 183, but glassy conditions on a reef with long-period groundswell could give you a few clean, shoulder-high set waves. It’s the best of a bad run.

Thursday the 24th and Friday the 25th show some improvement. Friday morning the 25th is the real standout. You’ve got 8ft of ESE groundswell at 16 seconds, with light cross-onshore wind. The combined energy is over 3000, which is moderate to strong. The forecast gives it the highest score of the whole run. That’s head-high plus with long, powerful lines. The long period is best for this reef, but crowds are possible. This is your window.

But don’t plan the whole week around it. Friday afternoon the wind goes onshore, and Saturday the 26th is lumpy and messy with 12ft surf. Sunday the 27th is the same.

So, summary: The first ten days are a write-off. The standout is Friday morning, September 25th, at Aoshima (Japan). It’s the only time where swell size, period, and light wind all come together for a good session. There’s also a tiny, glassy window on the 23rd for the small stuff. Long-range, so it’s promising but not locked in.

Rusty.

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