Aoshima Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, gather ‘round, me hearties. Rusty here, and I’ve had a good look at the charts for our local patch. Let’s be straight with each other – the next couple of weeks are a mixed bag, and we’ve got to be smart about picking our moments.

We’re kicking off with a bit of a slow start. The first surfable waves pop up on Saturday the 18th of July, but it’s not exactly firing. Aoshima is a reef break, and it’s exposed to the swell, but the energy is weak (65) that morning. You’re looking at tiny 2ft waves from the east, with a period of 9 seconds. The wind is glassy though, which is a real treat. It’ll be clean, but it’s a knee-high dribble for the beginner crew. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

That same pattern of small, glassy morning waves with a 2ft to 2ft easterly swell, and a period around 9-10 seconds, hangs around right through to Friday the 24th. The combined energy stays in the weak to moderate range (65 to 103). The mornings are the only show in town, because the afternoons get a cross-onshore wind that ruins the surface. It’s there, but it’s ordinary.

Then things get a bit weird. From Saturday the 25th, the swell direction shifts to the south-east, and the period starts to stretch out. The energy climbs, but the wind turns against us. By Monday the 27th, we’ve got a 5ft swell from the SE with a 13-second period, which is a proper groundswell. The energy is ramping up (740), but that onshore wind has the surface all messy. It’s frustrating.

The real standout, and the one that has my heart beating a little faster, is the morning of Friday the 31st of July. We’ve got a massive 20ft SE swell rolling in, with a very long 15-second period. The energy is insane (16398). The wind is howling onshore though, so it’s a no-go for paddle surfing. The break is expected to be completely out of control. The forecast says wind and tide are favorable, but the swell is simply too big. This is strictly for the experts, and even then, it’s a wild beast. The crowds are sometimes a thing here, but on a day like that, you’ll have the place to yourself if you’re mad enough.

The run of big, messy swells continues with strong onshore winds right through to the start of August. The only glimmer of hope in that second week is the morning of Sunday the 2nd of August. The swell is still a solid 15ft from the SSE, with a 12-second period, and the energy is still very strong (5122). But for the first time in days, the wind is offshore and fresh. That’s a game-changer. The report says it’s a marginal forecast, but fresh offshore wind on a big swell? That’s a proper look. The water is still churning, but it could be epic.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is small, clean, and for beginners. The real, raw power shows up for the last few days of July and into August, but you’ll need a death wish for the Friday the 31st. The best on offer, if you’re experienced and patient, is that Sunday morning on the 2nd of August. It’s a long way off, so don’t bank on it, but it’s the one that’s got my attention.

Rusty.

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