Aoshima Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s cooking for Aoshima over the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a weird one – we’ve got a long, flat spell to kick things off before the ocean wakes up in a big way.

Right now and for the next few days, don’t even bother waxing up. We’re looking at tiny dribble, with swell heights barely nudging 1 ft from the ESE and weak energy readings (around 35 to 61). Winds are light, and Thursday morning actually looks glassy, but there’s just no power. This flat patch runs right through until the morning of Sunday, the 2nd of August.

That Sunday morning is our first real whisper of life. The swell bumps up to 2 ft from the ESE, but the big story is the period jumping to a very long 16 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 255 (moderate), and we’ve got glassy conditions with a light NE breeze. That long period stuff means better shape, but at a reef like Aoshima, those longer gaps between sets will be noticeable. The water is sitting at 85°, which is about average for this time of year.

Now, the real stand-out window, and the best on offer across the whole outlook, is the following Monday, the 3rd of August. The swell is from the ESE at 6 ft on the morning with a period of 16 seconds. The combined energy reading is a strong 1472. The catch? There’s a risk of thunderstorms and the wind is cross-on from the NNE at 6 mph. It’s a bit messy, but that’s the most size and grunt we’ll see that’s still manageable for a paddle. By the afternoon, the swell hits 7 ft with a 17-second period and an energy reading of 2192, but the wind goes onshore. It’s more suited to stronger surfers.

Everything after that gets wild. From Tuesday, the 4th of August, through the end of the week, the swell keeps building but so does the wind. We’re talking 8 ft on Tuesday, climbing to a massive 28 ft by Thursday, the 6th of August, with onshore winds blowing 28 to 31 mph. The energy readings go through the roof – hitting 138426 by Thursday afternoon – but this is for experts only, and frankly, it looks more like a kiteboarding setup than a paddling proposition. It’s just too big and blown out.

We then see a slow drop-off through the second week. By Monday the 10th of August, the swell is back down to 5 ft from the E, energy is still moderate at 1247, but the onshore winds keep conditions poor. It remains marginal and unappealing right through to the end of the forecast.

So, to sum it up: if you’re looking for a paddle, your best bet is the morning of Monday, the 3rd of August. It’s not perfect, but it’s the only window with proper size and energy before things turn into a washing machine. Everything else is either flat, too big with bad wind, or just plain messy.

Rusty.

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