Aoshima Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, grab a coffee and settle in, ‘cause I’ve looked at the charts for Aoshima, and there’s a long wait before any real fun shows up. It’s a pretty flat start, but the back half of the outlook has something brewing that could be worth marking on your calendar.

The first week is pretty much a write-off, I’m not gonna sugar-coat it. From now through the end of July and into the first few days of August, we’ve got a solid ten days or more of tiny, weak waves and winds that are mostly onshore or cross-shore. The swell is barely 1 ft to 2 ft, mostly from the ESE or S, and the combined energy is below 100 – that’s seriously weak stuff. You’ll see a few glassy mornings on the 28th and 29th of July with the swell around 2 ft, and that might be okay for a mess-around on a foamie, but it’s not real surf. Conditions are described as “poor” basically all week.

Then, around the 2nd and 3rd of August, the energy starts to pick up. You’ll see the combined energy jump into the 100 to 500 range, and the swell height creeps up to 3 ft on the 3rd with a longer period of 12 seconds. The 4th of August sees a bigger bump, with swell hitting 6 ft to 7 ft and a very long period of 17 seconds from the ESE. The combined energy is over 2000 now, so there’s definitely power in the water. But the winds are still cross-onshore or onshore, and the forecast notes it as “marginal.” For a reef break, that long period groundswell can be good, but the onshore wind will chop it up.

Now, for the clear standout. Friday the 7th of August is the one to lock in. The morning is looking like a goldmine. We’ve got a solid 12 ft swell from the E, with a very long period of 18 seconds – that’s proper groundswell moving fast and deep. And the wind? It’s glassy, from the SSW at just 3 mph. That is going to be clean, big, and lined up. The combined energy is through the roof at 7301, confirming this is serious swell. Be warned, though: 12 ft is expert territory only. This is a reef break, and a long-period E swell like that will wrap in and be super powerful. It’s going to be big and it’s going to be perfect for the boys and girls who know what they’re doing. The water temperature is a very warm 84°, which is spot on for the time of year – no surprises there.

The 8th of August still has some decent leftover swell at 10 ft, but the winds start to turn cross-shore and pick up, so it won’t have the same glassy, pristine quality as the Friday. After that, the swell fades quickly into the 9th. So, don't bother paddling out until the first week of August, and really, only the 7th and maybe the 8th are worth looking at. The 7th is the day.

Rusty.

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