Aoshima Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey folks, Rusty here with a look at the charts. Gotta be honest, the next 16 days are looking like a tough stretch for Aoshima. We’ve got a whole lot of nothing on offer, and the few moments that might have had a pulse get absolutely thrashed by the wind. Let’s just walk through the misery.

The first faint glimmer of a wave shows up on the morning of Monday, September 14th. A small 4ft ESE swell, but the 3 mph NNE breeze puts it straight into the cross-onshore slot, making it a messy, ripply affair. The water temp is 82°F, which is pretty much bang-on average for this time of year – no surprise there. That afternoon and into Tuesday the 15th, it's a total write-off.

Now, Tuesday morning, September 15th... this is the one small glimmer. The swell pushes up to 5ft from the ESE with a period of 10 seconds, and it gets dead glassy with zero wind. That’s the cleanest it’s gonna get all period, and the combined energy is moderate (401). For a moment there, it would have been worth a paddle. But the afternoon ruins it with a cross-shore wind.

From there, it’s a long, slow slide into the gutter. Wednesday the 16th through the end of the first week is all onshore junk. It gets really ugly around Saturday, September 19th, when a massive 13ft+ swell from the ESE rolls in with a 16-second period – that’s very long-period groundswell. The combined energy absolutely skyrockets into the thousands (4516 to 9741), but the wind is a brutal cross-onshore at 15-22 mph. At that size, it’s only for experts anyway, and with that chop, it’s just a washing machine. Honestly, the set-up for the kite crew would be way more interesting than paddling into that mess.

The second week is a total write-off. Monday the 21st has near-gale force winds, and Tuesday the 22nd sees storm-force winds at 56 mph. The swell drops right off after that, going from big and blown out to tiny and onshore. By Wednesday the 23rd, we get a rare bit of clean offshore breeze from the west, but the swell is a pathetic 2ft. After that, through to the end of the period on September 29th, the swell is consistently under 3ft, with cross-onshore winds. A long, dry spell.

So, the bottom line: unless you were out on Tuesday morning, September 15th for that brief glassy window, there is absolutely nothing to recommend. A blank run like this is pretty normal for Aoshima when the wind patterns lock in like this. Keep the board in the bag, mate. Forecasts can change, but right now, it's a tough watch.

Rusty.

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