Aoshima Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is Aoshima. It’s a reef break that’s fairly consistent, but this first half of the outlook is a wild ride of big, powerful swell and messy wind.

We’ve got a major pulse of swell arriving on Thursday, July 9th, and it’s big. We’re looking at 8ft to 10ft surf from the SE with a long period of 15 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy, and the combined energy is huge – 4299 on Thursday morning, jumping to 3491 in the afternoon. The problem is the wind. It’s onshore from the ENE/E at 9 mph, and the wave comment says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” It’s not clean, and that size on a reef with those conditions is only for the experienced.

Friday, July 10th, the swell builds even more. We’re hitting 12ft from the SSE with a period of 16 to 17 seconds. The energy is massive – 6229 in the morning and 7460 in the afternoon. But again, the wind is onshore from the ENE/E, and there’s a risk of thunderstorms. The same marginal call applies. It’s big, powerful, but messy.

Saturday, July 11th, stays at 12ft from the SSE, period at 17 seconds. The energy is still huge, peaking at 7892. The wind swings to the ESE, coming in at 9 to 12 mph, which is a cross-onshore, and the wave comment is “marginal” with a moderate chop. This is still a big, difficult setup.

Then, Sunday, July 12th, is where we get a real standout. The swell drops to 7ft from the SSE, period 13 seconds, and the energy is still a solid 1641. But the wind goes glassy from the SE at just 3 mph. The wave comment is “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” For a reef break, glassy wind and that size is the sweet spot. It’s going to be clean, lined up, and powerful. Crowds are “sometimes” here, so expect some company on a Sunday morning, but it’s worth it. This is the best on offer in the first week.

The drop-off after Sunday is sharp. Monday, July 13th, the swell plummets to 5ft, and by Tuesday, July 14th, it’s down to 3ft. From Tuesday afternoon through to the end of the third week, the surf is tiny, mostly under 3ft, with poor conditions and low energy (values like 114, 125, 130). There’s a long gap of poor to no surf from July 14th through to the 18th.

Now, we’ve got another spike coming. On Sunday, July 19th, the swell jumps back to 7ft from the SSE, but the period is a short 8 seconds, and the wind is onshore at 12 mph. It’s a messy, wind-affected pulse. The energy is 1623, but the wave comment is “marginal.”

The real second standout is shaping up for Tuesday, July 21st. That morning, we’re looking at a massive 20ft swell from the ESE! The period is 14 seconds, and the combined energy is an enormous 13166. That is a very strong, powerful swell. The wind is light from the NE at 6 mph, which is onshore, but light. The wave comment is “marginal,” but with a score of 7 out of 10 internally, this is the biggest event of the forecast. At 20ft, this is strictly for experts only. It’s a monster. The water temperature is 79°, which is about 3° cooler than average for this time of year, so it’s a bit colder than usual.

After that big pulse, the week ends smaller. By Wednesday and Thursday, July 22nd and 23rd, the swell is back down to 5ft to 6ft, but the wind is looking better. On Thursday afternoon, July 23rd, we get offshore wind from the WSW at 12 mph, and the wave comment is “expect very good surf conditions.” That, and Friday, July 24th, with cross-offshore wind and a clean 5ft swell from the SSE, are the best windows for the smaller, cleaner waves after the big stuff.

So, to wrap it up: The standout is Sunday, July 12th, for clean, glassy waves on the reef at 7ft. The absolute biggest, most powerful day is Tuesday, July 21st, with 20ft groundswell – that’s a big-water day for experts only. The end of the week, July 23rd and 24th, offers clean, smaller waves for the rest of us.

Rusty.

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