Aoshima Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, checking in on what’s cooking for Aoshima over the next couple of weeks.

Look, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it: the next few days are pretty ordinary. You’ve got some small, weak ESE swell running, but the wind is mostly cross or cross-onshore, and the wave comment says it’s marginal or poor. Sunday morning sees a tiny 3ft swell from the ESE with a period of 14 seconds, but it’s cross-on with a light breeze, and the combined energy is only 260 – weak and messy. Sunday afternoon’s even smaller at 2ft, and it’s a write-off.

Monday the 14th isn’t much better. Slightly more size at 4ft in the morning, but the period drops to 8 seconds and the wind’s still cross-on. The afternoon gets a bit more energy (278) but it’s cross-shore and chopped up.

Now, Tuesday the 15th is where we get a little spark. First light is glassy – dead calm – with a 5ft ESE swell at 9 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 323, and the wave comment says “expect good surf conditions.” That’s our first real chance for clean, fun waves, even if it’s not huge. The afternoon gets a bit of cross-shore breeze and a risk of thunderstorms, so get out there in the morning.

After that, it’s a long run of poor conditions. Wednesday the 16th through to Monday the 21st is all cross-onshore or onshore wind, mostly moderate to fresh breezes, and the wave comments are “poor” across the board. A big pulse of swell hits from the 19th onwards – 8ft on Saturday the 19th, jumping to 15ft on Sunday the 20th and 16ft on Sunday afternoon – but it’s accompanied by strong, lumpy onshore winds. That’s expert-only territory, and even then, the quality is shithouse. The combined energy on the 20th hits 9317, which is very strong, but you wouldn’t want to be out there unless you’re on a kite – honestly, that setup looks way more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Tuesday the 22nd gets weird. A near-gale from the SE at 37 mph drops the swell to 2ft, and on the 23rd we get a clean, cross-offshore morning from the WNW with a tiny 2ft swell. It’s clean, but there’s barely any energy (79), so it’s more of a longboard cruise than anything exciting.

After that, it fades back into small, choppy junk through to the 28th, with a late pulse of 7ft SE swell on Monday the 28th but again, unknown wind conditions and only a marginal call.

The standout in this whole run is Tuesday morning, the 15th of September, at Aoshima. That’s the one – glassy, 5ft ESE swell, 9 second period, moderate energy (323), and a good surf rating. It’s a reef break, fairly consistent, with an exposed SE swell window that matches the optimum direction. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual. Crowds are sometimes a thing here, so you might have a few mates out, but it’s not packed. For beginners, 5ft is manageable, especially with clean conditions. That’s your window.

There’s a long quiet gap from the 16th to the 21st where it’s basically unsurfable, and then a few tiny, clean moments on the 23rd but nothing to get excited about. The second week is slim pickings – a late pulse on the 28th is promising but uncertain this far out.

Rusty out.

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