Aoshima Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it.

The next couple of weeks are looking like a classic summer setup for Aoshima. The forecast is a bit of a mixed bag, but there are definitely a few windows where it’ll be worth paddling out. We’re starting with some clean, rideable surf, but it’s going to fade out and get a bit junky mid-period, before a few more chances at the end of the run.

The first real call is Tuesday morning, August 11th. We’ve got some chest-high waves pushing in at about 4ft, with that east swell wrapping in nicely. The wind is dead glassy, and the water is a warm 84°, which is about normal for this time of year. The energy is moderate (577), and the period is a solid 12 seconds, so it should have some push to it. That’s your best bet for the start of the run.

Wednesday the 12th has similar size in the morning, but the wind is going to be a bit more cross-on, so it won’t be as clean. The swell energy is dropping, and the period is shortening, so it’s not going to be as good.

The surf really takes a hit from Thursday the 13th through Friday the 14th. The swell drops to under 3ft, and the wind gets messy. There’s a small window on Saturday morning, August 15th, with some glassy conditions and knee-high waves, but it’s pretty weak. Same story for Sunday the 16th.

The standout of the whole run is shaping up to be Monday morning, August 17th. The swell bumps back up to about 4ft, with a better 11-second period and a nice, glassy morning. The energy is moderate (337), and it looks clean. That’s the day to make the most of it.

After that, the surf fades out again. The mornings on Tuesday the 18th and Wednesday the 19th are pretty gutless, and the wind turns onshore. From the 19th through the 24th, we’re dealing with a lot of small, weak, and often poor conditions. There’s a little bump on the 20th and 21st, but the period is only 6 seconds, so it’s going to be a bit crumbly and weak.

The final highlight is looking like Tuesday morning, August 25th. That’s the one to circle on the calendar. It’s over a week away, so keep expectations in check, but the forecast shows a clean 3ft of east swell with a very long 12-second period, and it’s dead calm. The energy is moderate (201), and it could be a glassy, fun morning. That long period might make it a bit straight at the beach, but Aoshima is a reef, so it should hold up well.

So, to be straight with you: Tuesday the 11th and Monday the 17th are your short-term calls. The 25th is the long-range promise, but treat it as a possibility, not a guarantee. There are a few empty days in between, but that’s just how summer goes. Stay patient.

Later,
Rusty

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