Aoshima Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. It’s a bit of a rough stretch out there for Aoshima. We’ve got a solid window coming up, but the ocean is going to be angry and messy for most of it. Don’t go getting your hopes up for the next few days, because it’s not looking pretty.

The next week and a half is basically a write-off for decent waves. We’ve got a pulse of swell arriving, but it’s all tangled up with strong cross-onshore winds, and the sea surface is going to be chopped up and lumpy. It’s one of those times where it’s going to be a battle just to get out the back, and the ride won’t be worth the paddle. We’re looking at swell heights around 5ft to 12ft, but the wind is just ruining everything. On the 4th, we see 10ft of short-period SSE swell, but it’s crossed up and messy. The 8th is another big one, with 10ft to 12ft of ESE swell, but again, it’s all over the place. The combined energy is moderate to strong, hitting 2029 and 3317 on those days, but it’s all wasted energy. If it’s a kite day you’re after, this might be more interesting than surfing, because paddle surfing is going to be a grind.

There’s a slight tease on the 9th. The swell drops a bit, and we get a bigger, longer-period groundswell from the ESE. It’s hitting 13ft with an 11-second period, and the energy jumps up to 4281. But the wind is still cross-shore, and it’s just not clean enough to call it good. It’s still poor, just less bad than the days before.

Then it all backs off. From the 11th through the 14th, the swell just fades away, leaving us with small, weak, and mostly wind-affected waves. You’ll see 3ft to 6ft, but the period is short and the energy is weak, under 615. It’s pretty much flat and messy, not worth the time.

Now, the one glimmer in all this. On the 16th, there’s a big, powerful swell on the horizon. It’s still a week and a half away, so it’s a long-range call, but the models are showing a serious pulse. We’re looking at 13ft of ESE groundswell with a 13-second period, and the combined energy is a massive 5296. That’s strong to very strong energy. But here’s the catch – the wind is forecast to be howling from the NE at 25 mph, making it a strong cross-onshore mess. It’s going to be big, but it’s going to be a washing machine. This is one for the experts only, and even then, it’s going to be challenging. It’s a standout for size and power, but not for quality. It could be a spectacular, heavy day if the wind plays ball, but right now, it’s a wildcard.

So, the honest truth is there’s nothing in the next 16 days that I’d be rushing out for. The 16th has the most potential, but it’s a promise of power, not perfection. Keep an eye on it, but don’t book the day off work yet.

Rusty.

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