Aoshima Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The next couple of weeks are going to be a bit of a mixed bag for us here. We’ve got some clean windows and some proper swell, but we’ve also got a lot of lumpy, wind-affected junk to sift through. The first few days are going to be a write-off, so don’t get too keen. But there’s a couple of gems hidden in there if you’re patient.

The opening salvos on Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th are pretty much a no-go. We’ve got a solid 10ft of wind-blown slop from the ESE on Saturday with a stiff 22 mph easterly, and it’s just going to be a mess. The wave energy is strong (2070), but it’s all over the place. Sunday’s not much better – 7ft of short-period junk (8 seconds) and onshore winds. This is a kite-surfing kind of setup, not a paddle-surfing one. We’ll be waiting it out.

Monday the 10th is still pretty average. The swell drops to 5ft but the wind is still on it, so it’s going to be lumpy and uninviting. The energy is moderate (1046), but the quality just isn’t there. Then we hit a bit of a lull.

The first real glimmer of hope comes on Tuesday morning, the 11th. The swell drops to a clean 4ft from the east with a 12-second period, and the wind goes glassy. That’s the first time we see some real potential. The combined energy has dropped to 630, which is moderate, but with the glassy conditions, it might just be worth a paddle. The crowd factor is a bit of a lottery here, but it could be fun.

Wednesday and Thursday are small and bumpy again, so we’re back to waiting. The swell drops right down to under 3ft and the wind states are messy. It’s a real frustrating stretch with a few days of nothing on the cards.

Then we skip ahead to the next real standout. Sunday morning, the 16th of August. This is where it gets interesting. The swell kicks back up to 6ft from the east with an 11-second period, and the wind is glassy again. The combined energy is strong (858). This is a proper clean groundswell, and with the offshore breeze, it’s going to be the best session in the whole window. The water is 84°, which is about 0.9° warmer than usual for this time of year – nothing crazy, but comfortable.

Monday the 17th is a solid follow-up. Not quite as big, at 5ft, but still a clean 13-second period from the east and glassy conditions in the morning. The energy is still strong (853). This is another one to circle. These two mornings are your best bets.

The rest of the window fades out. There’s a small pulse around the 15th but it’s cross-on and not worth the effort. The last week gets small and sloppy again, with only a very small, long-period swell on Sunday the 23rd that has a period of 15 seconds but only 2ft of height. It’s surfable but not exciting. The energy levels drop right off into the low hundreds, which shows you how weak it is.

So, to wrap it up: keep your eyes on the mornings of the 16th and 17th. That’s the one-two punch of clean, decent-sized east swell with glassy conditions. It’s not huge, but it’s clean and will be the best we get. The rest is either too small, too messy, or blown out. Be patient, pick your windows, and you’ll get some.

Rusty.

Read more