Aoshima Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let's talk about what’s coming up for Aoshima.

Right off the bat, the next few days are a bit of a struggle. There’s almost nothing happening through the first couple of days with weak surf and poor conditions. We’ve got a gap of pretty much nothing until Sunday the 2nd of August.

The first real sign of life shows up on Sunday morning, August 2nd. The ocean finally starts to wake up. We’re looking at a tiny 0.6m (about 2ft) swell, but it’s got some serious grunt behind it with a 16-second period from the ESE, giving a moderate wave energy of 255. The key here is the wind is glassy, absolutely dead calm. It’ll be clean as a whistle. This is a classic small-scale groundswell setup; the long period will help the waves stand up a bit better than you’d think for the size, but it’s a reef break, so that long period will wrap in nicely. Crowds can happen here, so get out early for a solo session.

Into the second week, things get heavy but messy. From Monday the 3rd, the swell really starts to pump, shooting up to 1.4m (about 4.6ft) and then climbing fast. By Tuesday the 4th, we’re looking at 2.5m to 3.0m (8ft to 10ft) from the ESE, with a very long 18-second period. The energy numbers are massive—over 4000 and climbing into the 5000s. This is strong stuff. The problem is the onshore wind. It’s going to be a choppy, blown-out mess, and once the swell hits over 2.5m (8ft) on Tuesday, this is strictly for experts only. The reef is exposed to that ESE swell, but with strong onshore winds, it’s going to be a battle.

Wednesday and Thursday, August 5th and 6th, turn dangerous. We’re talking 4.0m to a massive 8.0m (13ft to 26ft) swell with insane energy readings—over 10,000 and even hitting 43,000. The winds are howling onshore at 40 to 50 km/h (25 to 31 mph). The forecast even notes the swell is too big for the break. This is heavy, dangerous, and blown out. Honestly, if you’re into kite surfing, this might be your window, but for a paddle surfer, it’s a hard pass. Even the best surfer in the world would struggle here.

The last few days of the outlook, from the 10th of August onwards, the swell drops back down to around 1.0m to 1.8m (3ft to 6ft), but the wind stays mostly onshore or cross-onshore, keeping the surface lumpy. There’s a glimmer on Wednesday morning, August 12th, with the wind turning glassy again. The swell is a clean 1.4m (about 4.6ft) from the east with a solid 13-second period, and the energy is a moderate 882. That’s a decent little morning window if the wind cooperates. It’s still a reef, so the long period should give you some nice, lined-up sets that are easy to paddle into. Crowds are possible, so get in before the wind kicks up in the afternoon.

So, the standout? It has to be Sunday morning, August 2nd for the die-hards who want to slide on tiny, clean waves, or Wednesday morning, August 12th for a slightly bigger, still clean, and more powerful session.

Stay salty.

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