Windmills Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surfers, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a proper surf. The finder’s come up empty-handed, which means there’s not a single day in the 16-day window that scores a solid recommendation. That’s a rough patch, but it doesn’t mean the ocean’s dead – it just means the conditions aren't lining up for anything worth paddling out for.

Looking at the bones of it, we’ve got Windmills (Big Island) on the cards, a solid reef break that’s fairly consistent. Water temp is sitting at 80°F, which is just about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. The main problem is the wind. It’s coming from the ENE almost the whole time, which is cross-shore for this spot. That might be fine for a few hours, but it’s mostly blowing at 15 to 22 mph, kicking up a lumpy cross-chop that’ll have you fighting the surface instead of riding it. The swell is there, mostly from the ENE, but it’s short-period windswell, mostly under 8 seconds, which means it’s weak, messy, and lacking any real push.

The first few days, from Friday the 7th through the weekend, are all showing poor surf conditions. We’ve got some swell in the 4ft to 6ft range, but with that fresh cross-shore wind, it's just going to be a washing machine. The energy is moderate at best, but it's all for nothing with the chop.

The middle of the week looks more of the same. Monday and Tuesday have some smaller windows, but the wind stays up and the swell stays short-period and messy. By the time we get to the weekend of the 15th and 16th, things start to get interesting in terms of size. We’re looking at swell building to 6ft to 7ft, and the period stretches out to 11 seconds on Sunday the 16th. That’s more like a groundswell, and the energy jumps to 1017, which is strong. But here’s the catch – the wind is still howling from the ENE at 19 to 22 mph. For a reef break like Windmills, which likes a NNW swell, this ENE windswell is just completely off the mark. It’s going to be a blown-out, cross-chop mess, and at 7ft with that short period for the most part, it’s potentially too big for beginners and just ugly for everyone else.

The period does push into the 10-11 second range on the 16th and 17th, which is better, but the wind doesn't let up. The energy is strong, but the quality is poor. Honestly, with those conditions, Windmills looks like it might be more interesting for the kite crowd than for us paddle surfers.

The tail end of the window, around the 19th and 20th, the wind does ease off a bit to 9-12 mph, but the swell drops right back down to under 4ft with a period of 4-8 seconds. That’s just dribble. There’s a little window on the 21st where the wind goes cross-off and the sea state is clean, but the swell is weak at 4ft from the ENE.

So, the bottom line is this: there is no standout surf in this 16-day stretch. It’s a blank run. The swell direction is wrong, the wind is wrong, and the periods are too short for most of it. It’s a frustrating outlook, but this area tends not to stay this poor for long. Forecasts shift, and we could easily see a change in the next few days. Keep your board ready, but don’t be surprised if you’re stuck on land for the next couple of weeks.

Rusty, out.

Read more