Windmills Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks. I’ll be straight with you – it’s a tough run ahead. The forecast is showing a long stretch of nothing special, with a small window of hope right at the end.

The first week is a real write-off. From Tuesday the 21st of July right through to the end of the month, the conditions are just grim. We’ve got a persistent ENE wind, mostly blowing in the 15 to 19 mph range, which is just tearing the surface up. The swell is a mix of short-period, wind-driven junk, mostly around 4 to 6 feet, but it’s all coming from the wrong direction for the spot. The combined wave energy is moderate, hitting values like 83 to 423, but it’s all messy and lumpy. Don’t bother paddling out; it’s more of a kite-surfing setup than anything you’d want to surf.

The only spot on the radar is Windmills (reef). It’s a break for advanced surfers, and it’s fairly consistent, but the crowds are often there. For this whole first week, the optimum swell direction is from the NNW, but we’re getting everything from the ENE and NE. So even when there’s a bit of size, the shape is just not there. It’s a write-off.

We finally see a shift on the 28th of July (Tuesday). The swell jumps up with a very long period of 13 seconds, coming from the ENE. The combined energy spikes to 1081, which is strong. But the wind is a cross-onshore, and the wave comment is still “poor surf conditions”. The size is around 5 to 6 feet, but it’s choppy and lumpy. Honestly, it’s still a miss.

The 29th of July (Wednesday) is the only day that even gets a "marginal" rating. The swell is 5 feet from the ENE, with a long period of 12 seconds, and energy at 707. The wind is a cross-shore from the NE at 12 mph. It’s still not clean, but it’s the closest we get to a surfable wave in the whole 16 days. For a reef break, that long period might actually wrap in a bit better, but the wind is just enough to mess it up.

After that, it’s back to the doldrums. The first week of August sees the swell drop back to under 3 feet with short periods, and the wind stays onshore or cross-shore. The 3rd of August (Monday) has a very long period of 15 seconds, but the swell is only 3 feet, so it’s just a weak, slow groundswell that won’t do much on a beach or reef. The energy is 537, which is moderate, but the size is just too small.

So, the honest truth: there is no standout day. The 29th of July is the only one that’s even worth a look, and even then, it’s a gamble. For a reef break like Windmills, the long period swells we see in the second week *could* be good if the wind ever swings offshore, but it doesn’t. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, so no excuses there.

Hang in there, but don’t hold your breath. Forecasts can change, but right now, you’re better off cleaning the wax off your board and waiting for a better window.

Rusty.

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