Windmills Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve gotta be straight with you – this outlook for Windmills is a tough one. We’ve got a 16-day window, but honestly, there’s not a single standout session in the whole run. The forecast is calling for poor surf conditions across the board, so we’re staring down a long, blank stretch with no real recommendations.

The pattern is locked in: a persistent cross-shore wind from the ENE, blowing at 12 to 22 mph, keeps the surface lumpy and choppy. There’s never a moment of clean, glassy conditions. The swell is mostly short-period stuff, under 8 seconds, which means weak, crumbly waves that lack any real punch. For a reef break that ideally needs a clean NNW swell, the mix of directions – NE, ENE, W – is all wrong.

Let’s run through it. On Tuesday, 14 July, we’ve got 4 ft of NE swell with a period of 8 seconds, but the cross-shore wind is already ruining it. Combined energy is just 331 (moderate), but the wave comment says it all: “poor surf conditions.” Wednesday, 15 July, drops to 2 ft from the WNW with a long 15-second period, but again, the cross-breeze kills it. Energy hits 254 (moderate), but it’s not worth paddling out for.

Thursday, 16 July, brings stronger winds at 22 mph, still cross-shore, and the swell is a meager 2 ft. The sea is lumpy. By Friday, 17 July, we see a bump to 4 ft and 5 ft from the NE, but the period is a pathetic 5 to 7 seconds – short-period mush. Energy is around 212 (moderate), but the wind is still cross. It’s not surfable.

The second week doesn’t get any better. From Saturday, 20 July, right through to the end of the month, it’s the same story: 3 ft to 6 ft of short-period ENE swell, with cross-shore winds of 12 to 19 mph. The wave energy climbs a bit, hitting 451 (strong) on Monday, 27 July, during the afternoon, but that’s from a 2 ft swell with a 15-second period and a fresh cross-shore wind. It’s a messy, lumpy ocean. The water temp is 79°, which is about average for the time of year – no anomaly to speak of.

For a break like Windmills, which is a reef setup for advanced surfers and often crowded, the conditions just aren’t there. The swell direction (ENE) is the opposite of what it prefers (NNW), and the constant cross-wind means you’d be fighting a chop all day. There’s nothing here that’s even worth a mention for a stand-out session. If you’re a kiter, maybe the consistent wind and bumpy waves could be fun, but for paddle surfing? Save your energy.

The forecast can change, and it’s not always this bleak, but for now, the 16-day window is a write-off. I’ll keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

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