Windmills Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m looking at the outlook for Windmills (reef, advanced). We’ve got a solid 16 days on the books, so let’s cut through the noise and get to the real story.

Right off the bat, I have to be straight with you – the whole 16-day window is basically one long, frustrating stretch of poor surf conditions. There are no good options here, no hidden gems, no standout days. It’s a flat, bumpy bust. From Saturday, July 4th, right through to Sunday, July 19th, every single forecast slot gets a score of zero out of ten. That’s a solid 16-day gap with nothing worth paddling out for.

The problem is simple: the wind is locked in from the ENE at 15 to 22 mph, cross-shore all the way. That’s a fresh to moderate breeze creating a lumpy, cross-chop mess on the surface every single day. The swell is there, running mostly around 5 ft to 7 ft from the NE or ENE, but with a short, weak period of just 5 to 8 seconds, it’s just disorganized, choppy junk. The combined energy never gets strong enough to override the wind – numbers range from weak (84) to moderate (432) – but with that cross-chop, it doesn’t matter. Even when the energy hits 432 on Monday the 6th in the afternoon, the wind kills it. For a reef break, you need clean, lined-up swell, and we get none of that here.

On top of that, the swell direction (NE/ENE) doesn’t match what this break likes best. The optimum swell for Windmills is from the NNW, so we’re getting the wrong angle for most of this run. There’s a brief flicker late in the window – Tuesday the 14th and Wednesday the 15th show a tiny 2 ft groundswell from the WNW with a very long period of 15-16 seconds, and the energy sits in the moderate range (287-343). But the wind is still cross-shore at 15 mph, ruining any potential for the clean, long lines that period would normally bring. At 2 ft, it’s not even surfable anyway.

For a place that is fairly consistent, having a run this blank is unusual, but it’s a stark reality right now. There’s literally no surf to recommend. Honestly, with that strong cross-shore wind and the lumpy water, a kite surfer might have a better time out there than a paddle surfer, but for us, it’s a hard pass.

Stay patient. These patterns shift.

Rusty.

Read more