Waikiki Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next 16 days out at Waikiki are a tough watch. The forecast is delivering a long, frustrating stretch of tiny, weak surf with poor conditions, and the scoreboard is stacked with zeros. It’s a lean period, and for a spot that’s usually fairly consistent, this is a proper dry spell. First surfable action doesn’t show up until the end of the first week, but even then it’s nothing to get excited about. We’re looking at a solid 9-day gap of nothing worthwhile before we get a sniff of something.

The Overall Pattern

Right now, through to the end of July, it’s a complete write-off. The swell is tiny, often under 2ft, coming from the east with short periods around 5 to 8 seconds. The wind is all over the shop – onshore, cross-on, lumpy, choppy. Forget about it. The water temp is sitting at 50°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but it’s not going to matter when there’s nothing to ride.

We roll into August, and the first hint of change comes on the 1st. On Saturday morning, we see a jump in swell to 6ft from the ESE, with period at 7 seconds and combined energy at 289 (moderate). The problem? The wind is a fresh cross-shore from the SE at 19 mph, making it lumpy and cross-chop. By the afternoon, it drops to 5ft, but the wind is still messy. This is a beach and reef setup, and with that size and wind, it’s looking more interesting for kite surfing than a paddle session. The surf quality is marked as poor.

Then the 2nd and 3rd of August get wild. The wind cranks up – we’re talking near gale force from the NE on Monday morning, hitting 34 mph. The swell jumps to 7ft, then 6ft, with combined energy rocketing to 616 and 614 (strong to very strong wave energy). That’s a lot of juice, but it’s all onshore, churned up, and messy. For a beginner spot, over 5ft is already pushing it, and over 8ft is for experts only. This is blowing out hard. Not a chance for clean waves.

The Best on Offer (and it’s a stretch)

The only real standout, and I mean the only one, is the 4th and 5th of August. This is your window. On Tuesday the 4th, we get a long-period groundswell arriving from the ESE at 5ft with a period of 11 seconds. The combined energy is 627 (strong). The wind, for the first time, turns cross-offshore from the SSW at 12 mph, and the conditions are described as clean. This is a big deal. A long-period swell like this (over 11 seconds) means better shaped waves, more energy, and longer gaps between sets – makes paddling out easier. The caveat? At a beach break like Waikiki, that long period can make the waves break too straight, but with the wind cleaning it up, it’s the best we’ll see. The surf quality is marked as marginal, but honestly, it’s the best on offer.

Wednesday the 5th morning holds some promise, too. The swell drops to 4ft from the ESE, period at 10 seconds, energy at 312 (moderate), and the wind is offshore from the SW at 12 mph. The report says "expect good surf conditions" for that morning. The afternoon gets a bit stronger wind at 19 mph, but still offshore. This is the cleanest, most consistent stretch of the entire forecast.

After that, it’s back to the doldrums. The 6th onwards sees the swell fade fast, dropping below 3ft, with frustrating cross-shore and onshore winds, and the combined energy falls to double digits and low triple digits. A few days around the 10th have a whisper of a long-period SE swell (12 seconds) and offshore wind, but the swell is only 2ft to 2ft, with energy around 90 to 148 (weak to moderate). It’s surfable, but very ordinary.

Bottom Line

If you’re desperate, point your board at Waikiki on the 4th and 5th of August. The Tuesday morning with that 5ft, 11-second groundswell and clean cross-off wind is the only time the ocean gives you a real chance. Wednesday morning is the backup. Everything else in this 16-day window is a frustrating, flat, or blown-out mess. This is a tough one for the island – the kind of stretch where you check the forecast, shake your head, and go find something else to do. Forecasts can change, but as it stands, it’s a long wait for a short window.

Rusty.

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