Waikiki Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Alright, let’s talk about what’s on offer for the next couple of weeks around Waikiki. And straight up, I’ve got to be honest with you – this is a tough one. It’s a long, dry spell for decent surf, with most of the 16-day window looking pretty flat or just too messy to get excited about. We’ve got a real gap here, with nothing worth paddling out for right from the start. The first few days are a write-off, and the whole run is a test of patience. But don’t lose hope; there are a couple of flickers of life, especially if you’re willing to wait.

For days on end, it’s just poor conditions. The afternoon on Wednesday the 29th is a no-go with a weak cross-off wind and no swell to speak of. Thursday the 30th through to the weekend is all small, short-period windswell and onshore winds making for messy, bumpy surf. There’s a small window around Saturday the 1st of August morning where we see a fresh offshore wind from the WSW, but the swell is tiny at 3ft and only 9 seconds from the East, and the wave energy is still moderate (136). It’s clean but too weak to really go anywhere.

Then we hit another lull. Sunday the 2nd has a bit of energy lurking – moderate swell energy (175) – but the waves are small and the winds are just okay. By Monday the 3rd, we get a glassy moment in the afternoon, with a slight air and no wind, but again, it’s 2ft of 5-second junk. You’d be floating around more than surfing.

Now, here’s where we get one real standout in this whole outlook. Tuesday morning, August the 4th – this is your best chance. Waikiki (Oahu) will see the swell pick up a bit, a clean 4ft from the Southeast with a 10-second period. The wind is blowing moderate offshore from the SW, so it’ll be clean. The combined energy hits a solid 314, which is moderate to strong, and that’s the highest we’ll see for a while. The optimum swell direction from the guidance is NE, and while this is from the SE, it’s still the most promising window. The crowds can turn up here sometimes, but early morning with offshore winds? It might just be worth it. Just remember the water temp is a touch warmer than normal at 50°F, which is unusual for this time of year – it’s running nearly 4°F above average, so it feels a bit tropical.

After that, it slips back into mediocrity. Wednesday the 5th and Thursday the 6th have some moderate energy from the ESE, but the winds are messy or cross-off, and the wave heights hover around 4ft to 4ft. Friday the 7th onward, it drops right off. The final days from August 8th through to the 13th are mostly tiny, weak swell with very low energy (mostly under 100, some as low as 6). There’s a flash of hope on the morning of Tuesday the 12th, with 3ft from the ENE and light cross-off winds, and that afternoon it goes glassy, but the period is a short 5 seconds, so shape will be poor. By the 13th, it’s back to onshore chop with 5ft of windswell but no quality.

To be blunt, Tuesday morning, August 4th, at Waikiki is the only session here that I’d actually set an alarm for. It’s not perfect – the swell direction isn’t ideal – but clean offshore winds and decent energy (314) will give you the best chance of a few fun runners. It’s not one for the beginners though, with 4ft swell; it’s getting a bit sizeable. For the rest of this outlook, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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