Velzy Land Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, lookin' at the charts for the next couple weeks. Gotta be straight with you — it’s a tough stretch for Velzy Land. This is a heavy, advanced reef, and it needs specific conditions to really fire. For the first week and a half, we’re starvin'. The swell is tiny, barely kickin' up 1ft to 2ft from the north or west, with periods that are all over the place. The wind is mostly cross or cross-off from the east, which keeps the surface clean at times, but there's just not enough push. The combined energy is weak, sittin' in the range of 4 to 103 (just a touch of moderate energy on the morning of August 8th). The water temp is a warm 80°F, which is bang on normal for the time of year.

From Sunday, August 2nd through to about Tuesday, August 11th, we’re lookin' at a real dry spell. The forecast calls it "poor surf conditions" every single time. There’s a few days there where the swell direction is from the west, which is the opposite of what this spot wants — it needs a solid northwest groundswell to really work. The best we can hope for in that first week is maybe a tiny, clean wave on the 5th and 6th of August, with a cross-off breeze and a glassy look, but it’s gonna be knee-high at best. Not worth paddlin' out for.

Now, things start to get a bit more interesting around the 13th of August. The swell starts to build a little, with a west-northwest groundswell comin' through. On the afternoon of August 13th, we see a 2ft swell from the west with a 16-second period, and the combined energy jumps to 140 (moderate). That’s a long-period groundswell, which is a good sign for a reef like Velzy Land — it’ll wrap in and set up some proper lines. The wind is a fresh cross-off from the east, so the surface should be clean. By the 14th and 15th of August, we’re seein' 2ft west swell with 15-second periods, and energy values hittin' 172 and 173 (moderate). The wind stays cross-off from the east, though it freshens up to 18-22 mph, which might put a bit of a bump on it.

The standout window is the afternoon of August 14th and the morning of August 15th. The swell is the biggest of the whole period at 2ft from the west, with a long 15-second period, and the wind is cross-off, keepin' the waves clean. The combined energy is the strongest we see (173). For a heavy reef, this is the best shot. It’s still not huge, but it’s gonna offer some proper, well-shaped waves. The downside? It’s an advanced spot, and it’s sometimes crowded, so you might have to share the peak.

After the 15th, the wind swings back to a cross-shore from the east-northeast, which will bring in some lumpy, choppy conditions again. The swell holds a bit of size, but the quality drops off. The 16th and 17th of August still have 2ft west swell with 14-second periods and energy in the 100-121 range, but the cross-shore wind will make it a bit of a battle.

Bottom line: wait for the 13th and 14th of August. That’s your window. It’s not a classic, but it’s the best we’ve got. The rest of the time, you’re better off doin' somethin' else.

Rusty.

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