Velzy Land Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s talk about what’s on the cards for Velzy Land over the next couple weeks. Straight up, I’ve gotta be honest with you—this is a tough stretch. The forecast is showing a whole lot of nothing for a long time before we finally see a spike of bigger energy come through.

First thing to notice: we’ve got no surf worth paddling out for right now. The first week, from Monday July 6th all the way through to Saturday July 11th, wave heights are barely a whisper, between 0.3 ft and 1.0 ft. Combined swell energy sits well under 100 (weak) for most of that, peaking at only 36. Winds are a steady moderate to fresh breeze out of the ENE, hitting 19 to 22 mph and staying cross or cross-offshore. That’s messy, lumpy conditions. No rideable surf.

Now, the first real standout—and I mean *real* standout—is Sunday morning July 12th. The swell jumps to 7 ft, direction NE, with a short period of 8 seconds. Combined energy here hits 671, which is moderate to strong. But this is a beefy, short-period swell, and at that size it's only for the experienced crew—beginners stay well clear. The main issue though: wind is still cross at 19 mph, so the surface is going to be lumpy and chopped up. That’s a lot of power but not the clean canvas we dream of. It’s not the best wave of the window for that reason.

The true best on offer quietly builds from Monday July 13th onwards. That’s when we start seeing consistent 2 ft to 2 ft surf, with longer periods of 14 to 16 seconds creeping in. The direction is SW and W, which lines up beautifully with Velzy Land’s optimum NW exposure—keeping in mind the optimum swell direction here is NW, so the SW/W wrap has to work its magic. Combined swell energy moves into the low-to-mid 200s (moderate). What really sells it is the wind: from Monday July 13th through July 16th, we get crisp, clean conditions with E to ENE winds 16 mph, mostly cross-offshore. That spells glassy, well-shaped faces. The water temperature is 79°F, which is bang average for this time of year—nothing to write home about but comfortable.

The absolute standout session is Monday July 13th, both morning and afternoon, and then Wednesday morning July 15th. On the 13th, the swell is 2 ft, 15 seconds period, out of the SW, combined energy 166 to 169 (moderate). The wind is a clean cross-offshore at 16 mph, keeping the surface smooth. At Velzy Land, a reef break that’s very consistent and advanced, this long-period groundswell will wrap in and produce long, rippable walls. It’s a point/reef setup, so that long period gives you proper shape and power, with decent gaps between sets to paddle back out. Crowds are possible here sometimes, but with conditions this consistent and the size manageable, it’s not a circus.

From late in the second week—starting around July 19th and onward—the swell drops back under 1 ft, combined energy falls to under 100 again, and the whole thing fizzles out. So, to sum it up: you’ve got a long gap of junk, then a real beast of a short-period swell on the 12th for experts only (with lumpy wind), followed by the real gem from the 13th through the 16th. If you’re picking one window, Monday July 13th is your best bet. Clean, long-period groundswell on a reef that loves it.

Rusty.

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