Tutaekuri River Mouth Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this stretch ahead is a proper test of patience. The next week is pretty flat and messy for the Tutaekuri River Mouth (Hawke’s Bay) – we’re talking ankles-to-knee high dribble that’s hardly worth wetting a wetsuit for. But hang in there, because the second week has some serious pulse coming through.

Right now, through the 31st and into the first few days of August, it’s grim. The swell is tiny, mainly under 2 feet, and even though the winds are often offshore or light, the energy just isn’t there. The combined energy values are mostly in the low double digits—like 57, 46, 82—which is weak, mate. Water temp is sitting at 54°F, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year. That’s noticeable.

There’s a tiny bump on Sunday the 2nd, where the morning has a light offshore and the afternoon goes glassy. Swell is only around 3 feet from the SE, but the combined energy gets up to about 193 and 179, so it’s moderate. Still, that’s just surfable—nothing to get excited about. The River Mouth will be inconsistent and pretty ordinary.

After that, it flatlines again. From the 3rd to the 8th, we’re looking at mostly under 2 feet, some onshore junk on the 7th afternoon, and energy values that barely crack 100. This is a real dry spell. The only thing worth noting is that the break is fairly consistent in its shape, but with no swell, that means nothing.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. After a solid week of nothing, the 9th of August changes the game. The morning of the 9th is glassy with 0.6 feet, but the afternoon kicks up to about 6 feet from the ESE with a 7-second period. The combined energy jumps to 303—that’s moderate, but it’s the start of something. The wind is glassy, which is gold.

Then the 10th brings a proper pulse. Swell builds to 6 feet in the morning, then 7 feet in the afternoon, from the ESE. Energy is climbing into the 400s then 849. It’s cross-shore, but light, so it’s clean enough. This is when it starts to get serious.

The 11th of August is the big one. Tuesday morning sees 10 feet of east swell with an 11-second period, and the energy is monstrous at 2429. That’s strong to very strong, mate. But here’s the thing—10 feet is well over the mark for this spot. That’s expert-only territory, and honestly, the forecast notes say the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. The afternoon drops to 8 feet but the energy jumps even higher to 2819. It’s a beast, but the River Mouth might just close out or be way too heavy. The wind is light and cross, so it’s clean, but for the experienced only.

The 12th is still pumping—7 to 8 feet from the ESE, with 11-second periods and energy in the 1700s to 2600s. The morning has a cross-off breeze which makes it clean, and that’s a standout window for the experts. But be warned, it’s still big.

By the 13th, it’s easing but still solid—7 to 7 feet. The afternoon of the 13th actually looks fantastic: cross-off wind, clean, 7 feet from the ESE, with 958 energy. That’s a really good window.

The 14th is the pick of the period for most surfers. Friday: offshore winds, 4 to 5 feet from the ESE, with a 10-second period. Energy is 404 in the morning, 732 in the afternoon. The afternoon is gentle offshore and clean—this is proper, fun, solid surf that’s not out of control. That’s the one I’d be circling.

Then it fades again into the 15th, with 3 to 4 feet and energy dropping to 181–212. Still surfable, but the wind is getting cross-off and a bit stronger, so it won’t be as clean.

So, the standout is clearly the afternoon of the 14th—offshore, clean, 5 feet from the ESE. That’s the best on offer. For the real experts, the 11th and 12th mornings are huge, but you need to know what you’re doing. The River Mouth handles a bit of size, but 10 feet is pushing it. And remember, long-period groundswell like that 11-second stuff can make river bars weird—sometimes breaking too straight. But when the wind’s off or glassy, it’ll be cleaner.

Crowds are a possibility here, as it’s marked as “sometimes” busy, so get in early for the good ones.

Alright, that’s the picture. Patience for the first week, then it lights up. Stay safe out there.

Rusty

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