Raneika Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let's get into it.

We’ve got one spot to look at this whole stretch: Raneika Beach. It’s a reef setup, so it holds onto swell better than a sand bottom. Water temp is sitting at 53°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year – a good 3° cooler, so you’ll want a thicker suit.

Right now, the immediate forecast is looking rough. We’ve got a big swell on the way, but the wind is the problem. Starting Sunday the 16th, it’s pumping with an 12 ft south swell, but that 31 mph SSW wind is making it a messy cross-offshore mess. Not worth it.

The real standout of this whole 16-day window is Thursday morning, August 20th. We’ve got a clean 8 ft swell from the SSW, with a long 13-second period – that’s proper long-period groundswell, meaning deep-water energy hitting the reef. And the wind? Light and offshore from the WSW at just 6 mph. That will be glassy, clean, and powerful. The combined wave energy is very strong (3198), so this is for experienced surfers only – it’s going to be a freight train. If you’ve got the skills, that’s your morning.

The second standout is Thursday morning, August 29th. It’s a bit further out, but conditions look promising. Another 8 ft south swell, with a solid 12-second period, and light cross-offshore winds from the NW at 6 mph. Strong energy again (1805), and clean conditions. Could be another excellent session for the experienced crew.

Between these, there’s a lot of messy margins. The second week drops off significantly in size and quality. By the 23rd and 24th, we’re down to knee-high mush with mostly poor conditions. The period on the 24th is 16 seconds, which is a very long wait between sets, and only 2 ft to show for it – not much to get excited about.

There is a bit of a pickup around the 26th and 27th, but the wind is messy and onshore, making it lumpy. The 27th morning has a clean 5 ft 14-second swell, but it looks like it’s going to be a very long, slow set wave that might not offer much shape at a beach break format. It’s a reef, but that period is still something to note.

If the swell gets over 8 ft on the 19th (15 ft on Wednesday morning), that’s going to be huge and unruly for most. The energy reading (4983) is extremely high. Only the most confident experts should even think about paddling out that day.

So, to wrap it up: focus on Thursday the 20th for the cleanest, most powerful ride. Thursday the 29th looks like a worthy follow-up. The rest of the window is mostly a waiting game or for the die-hards who don’t mind a fight.

Rusty.

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