Raneika Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what Raneika Beach has in store for us over the next couple of weeks.

First up, the water’s a bit on the chilly side, running about 3°F colder than usual for this time of year at 53°F, so you’ll want that thicker wetsuit if you’re paddling out.

Honestly, the start of the period is pretty grim. There’s almost nothing worth getting excited about for the first several days. Monday the 10th has tiny, weak 3 ft to 3 ft SSE swell, but the wave comment says it all – poor conditions. The Monday afternoon glass-off is the only real highlight early on, with zero wind and clean, glassy surface, but the swell is so small and weak (combined energy of only 171) that it’s barely rideable. Tuesday morning the 11th sees a jump in size to 7 ft from the SSW with a moderate energy of 1439, but it’s declared marginal, so it’s a bit of a tease.

From Wednesday the 12th right through to the start of the following week, it’s a long, flat, and windy run. Onshore winds are relentless, and the swell is messy. Thursday the 13th has a bit of a SE push, but wind and chop ruin it. Friday the 14th through Sunday the 16th sees building easterly swell up to 8 ft, but it’s accompanied by strong onshore winds and rain. The setup is so poor and choppy, it looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Things get a bit wild around Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th. A solid pulse of southerly swell arrives. On Monday morning, the 17th, we’ve got a big 13 ft S swell at 10 seconds with combined energy of 3843 – that’s strong stuff. But the wind is a strong, messy cross-shore, making it a no-go for most. Monday afternoon cleans up a bit with cross-offshore wind, but it’s still massive at 12 ft. This is expert territory only.

The real standout of the whole outlook lands on Thursday the 20th. The morning session looks excellent. The swell drops to a more manageable 8 ft from the south (9-second period), with combined energy of 2422. The wind is a light cross-offshore from the WSW, creating clean conditions. The guidance rates this as excellent for experienced surfers, and I’d agree – if you’ve got the skills, this is the morning to be out there. The moderate-sized swell and clean conditions make it the best call of the run.

After that, Friday the 21st still has some decent leftovers – 4 ft from the SE with a longer 11-second period in the morning, and cross-offshore wind keeping it clean. But the energy drops off fast, and by Saturday the 22nd we’re back into small, weak, and choppy territory.

The final days of the forecast window (23rd to 25th August) are flat and poor, with tiny swell under 2 ft and strong onshore winds. Nothing to bother with.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is mostly write-off. The only real standout is Thursday morning, 20th August, for the bigger, clean south swell. Keep an eye on Monday afternoon the 17th if you’re an expert and don’t mind big, powerful waves.

Rusty.

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