Raneika Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a bit of a slow start, but the second week is where things get interesting. The first few days are honestly pretty grim, with nothing really worth paddling out for until we get into the second week. There’s a gap of about a week from the start of the forecast until the first real windows of opportunity open up.

For the first few days, the swell is small and the wind is messy. Raneika Beach (a reef set-up) is seeing some S and SSW swell, but it’s mostly junk. Friday the 4th has a 2ft S swell, period 10 seconds, but with a 15 mph NNW wind it’s just cross-off and messy. The combined energy is weak (153). Saturday the 5th is a bit better with a 3ft SSW swell, but the wind is still cross-off and the period is a short 8 seconds, so the waves are weak and ordinary. The combined energy is moderate (111). Nothing to get excited about.

Sunday the 6th is a washout with a tiny 1ft swell and even a 17-second period on the Sunday afternoon can’t save it – the swell is just too small. Monday the 7th has a 4ft NE swell but it’s a short 5-second period, so it’s just lumpy. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Now, Tuesday the 8th is where things get a bit wild. We’ve got a 10ft S swell rolling in for the morning, period 9 seconds. That’s strong, but it’s also a lot of water. The combined energy is a massive 2465 – that’s very strong. This is only for experts, folks. The wind is a fresh 20 mph cross-off, so it’s going to be a tough paddle. The afternoon drops to 7ft, but the wind swings onshore and it’s messy. This is more of a kite-surfing day than a paddle-surfing day.

The real gem in this whole 16-day outlook is shaping up for Sunday, September 13th. The afternoon session is the standout. We’ve got a 8ft S swell, period 12 seconds, and the wind is a glassy 3 mph offshore from the west. The combined energy is 1718 – very strong. This is a proper groundswell, and with that offshore wind, Raneika Beach is going to be a gem. It’s clean, powerful, and offers excellent conditions for experienced surfers. The crowd factor is “sometimes,” so expect a few locals out, but it’s well worth it.

The morning of the 13th is a bit too big at 10ft with a fresh cross-off wind, so stick to the afternoon. The other window is Thursday, September 17th. Both morning and afternoon have a 5ft S swell, period 11-12 seconds, with a light offshore wind from the NNW. The combined energy is 672 in the morning and 1107 in the afternoon. This is a very good, clean option for a wider range of surfers, though the 5ft swell is still a bit much for beginners.

Wrapping it up: the first week is a write-off. The best on offer is Sunday, September 13th afternoon for the big, clean, powerful stuff. Thursday, September 17th is a solid second option for a cleaner, slightly smaller day. The rest of the second week has some smaller windows, but nothing that compares to those two.

Stay tuned, forecasts can change. This is Rusty, signing off.

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