Raneika Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, listen up. Rusty here, looking at Raneika Beach. It’s a reef setup and it’s fairly exposed to swell, but the outlook is a mixed bag with a couple of real gems to keep an eye on.

The water's sitting at about 54°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year – you’ll feel that nip for sure.

We start off with a bit of a wait. The first decent window arrives on Monday the 14th in the afternoon. It's clear skies and a light easterly breeze, but the swell is a messy 6 ft from the south with a 12-second period. The combined energy is moderate (846), but the forecast says it's marginal, so don't get your hopes up.

Tuesday the 15th morning is where things start to look up. The wind swings to a light cross-offshore from the NNW, cleaning up a 5 ft south swell (10-second period). Energy is still moderate (405), but it’s clean and surfable. The afternoon turns poor as the wind comes onshore, so get on it early.

Wednesday the 16th and Thursday the 17th are small and ordinary, with waist-high dribble and light winds. Not worth getting wet for.

Friday the 18th brings a big jump in size – a 10 ft south swell, but it's short-period (8 seconds) and howling 22 mph winds. The combined energy is strong (1185-1294), but the conditions are poor. This one is for the kite crew, not for paddling.

Now, Saturday the 19th is a standout. The swell drops back to a clean 5 ft to 5 ft from the SSE, period stretches to 10-11 seconds, and we get offshore winds from the WNW all day. Combined energy is moderate (530-612), but with light breezes and glassy conditions, this will be the best paddle surf of the first week. Get out there.

Sunday the 20th is a write-off, with a tiny 2 ft swell and strong southerly winds chopping it up by the afternoon.

Then we hit the big one. Monday the 21st. Morning has a weird 3 ft SSW groundswell with a very long 19-second period – combined energy is high (979). It’ll be clean with light cross-off winds, but that period is so long it might be tricky on a beach setup. The afternoon, however, is the absolute highlight of the whole forecast. We get a 5 ft south swell with a 16-second period, glassy conditions (NNE at 3 mph), and the combined energy rockets to a very strong 1516. The report says it's excellent for experienced surfers. This is the session to circle on your calendar, but only if you’ve got the skills for that power.

The rest of the week is a mess of poor conditions and onshore wind, with a massive 13 ft south swell on Wednesday the 23rd (combined energy of 4724) that’s blown out and marginal.

Looking further out to the second week, the pattern is a little less certain, but Tuesday the 29th morning looks promising again. A 6 ft south groundswell with a 14-second period, light offshore wind, and strong energy (1390). It’s rated excellent for experienced surfers. Keep an eye on that one.

To sum it up: Saturday the 19th and Monday the 21st afternoon are your best bets. The 21st is the big one for the confident crew, the 19th is a solid all-rounder.

Stay salty.
Rusty.

Read more