Raneika Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a bit of a slow burner on our hands, but there’s a couple of windows that’ll get your heart rate up if you’re patient.

The coming days are seriously underwhelming. We’re looking at a stretch of poor conditions right through the first week. The water’s sitting at 55°F, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want the thick rubber.

Sunday the 6th and Monday the 7th are a write-off. We’ve got tiny, weak swell and messy winds. The combined energy is barely registering (90 for Sunday morning), and the swell is either too short-period or just plain pathetic. Don’t bother.

Tuesday the 8th does see a jump in size, with a 10ft SSE swell rolling in Tuesday morning, but it’s carrying a lot of energy (1159) and the winds are cross-off. It’s marginal at best, and that size is really only for experts. The afternoon drops to 8ft, still big and still only a maybe.

Wednesday the 9th is your first real standout. The morning is clear, the wind is a glassy WNW cross-off at only 3 mph, and the swell is a clean 5ft from the SE with a combined energy of 272. This is where it all comes together for a good session at Raneika Beach. The reef setup will like that SE direction, and the light wind means it’ll be clean. It’s not huge, but it’s the best quality on offer early on. Crowds are sometimes a thing here, so get out early.

The rest of the week into the weekend is a mixed bag of onshore junk and strong offshore winds that make paddling a nightmare. Thursday the 10th has a tiny 3ft swell, and while Friday the 11th has a 4ft S swell with offshore wind, the wind is too strong (19 mph) and makes it a battle. The same goes for Saturday the 12th – the swell is only 4ft, but a 28 mph offshore wind will have you pinned in the carpark.

Now, hold onto your board. Sunday the 13th is the big one, but it’s a monster. We’re looking at a 21ft SSW swell with a very long 17-second period. The combined energy is a staggering 31601. The wind is favorable, but this swell is simply too big for Raneika Beach. This is big-wave territory, for experts only, and even then, it’s a serious call. The afternoon is the same story with a 20ft swell. You’d be a madman to paddle out.

Monday the 14th still has that 12ft S swell, but the wind is howling offshore at 31 mph, making it near impossible to get out. The afternoon drops to 10ft with a better 16 mph offshore, but it’s still only for the experienced.

The real sweet spot for the second week lands on Tuesday the 15th. The morning delivers a 5ft S swell with a 12-second period and a light NW cross-off at 9 mph. The energy is moderate (684), and the setup is clean. This is a solid, fun wave for everyone. The afternoon is a bit messier, but that morning window is gold.

After that, it’s a story of strong offshore winds again. Wednesday the 16th and Thursday the 17th have some size (5ft to 5ft), but you’ll be fighting a 28 mph wind. Friday the 18th is a no-go with near-gale conditions. The final weekend (19th and 20th) sees a drop in wind and some 7ft SSW swell, but it’s still marginal and the wind is cross-off, so it’s a gamble.

So, here’s the summary: Wednesday the 9th is your best bet for a clean, fun session. If you’re a charger and want to stare down a beast, Sunday the 13th is the one to watch, but it’s a career wave. For the second week, Tuesday the 15th morning is the standout for a more manageable, quality surf.

Stay safe out there.

Rusty.

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