The Well Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break down The Well for the next 16 days.

We’re starting Wednesday with a solid, long-period groundswell from the SW. You’re looking at a 4.0m swell at 15 seconds, and the water temp is 57°, which is about average for the season. The wind’s a moderate cross-offshore from the NW, so the surface should be clean Wednesday afternoon. The combined wave energy is 6206 – moderate to strong – proper reef-break territory. But this reef is advanced-only, and with the swell at 4.0m, it’s only for experienced surfers. Crowds are only a sometimes thing, which is a bonus.

Thursday is a washout. The swell jumps to 5.5m, period drops to 14 seconds, and you’ve got a 30 km/h cross-onshore from the W. Rotten, choppy conditions. Skip it.

Friday, the 4th of September, is a real standout. The swell settles to a very solid 5.0m from the SW, period up to a nice 16 seconds, and the wind is cross-off from the NNW at 20 km/h. Clean. The wave energy is a huge 12220 – that’s strong, powerful water. This is big, lined-up reef swell for experts only, but if you’ve got the bottle, this is your session.

Saturday the 5th is blown out by a 40 km/h WNW wind, risk of thunderstorms, and messy conditions. The swell is big (4.5m to 5.0m) but not worth it.

Sunday the 6th through Monday the 7th drops in size (3.5m down to 1.7m), with cross-on winds and weaker periods (12-14 seconds). Not much to get excited about. Wave energy drops to about 1400. Light winds but poor direction.

Now, Tuesday the 8th of September is another standout for the experienced crew. Morning has a 2.2m SW swell with a very long period of 18 seconds – that’s groundswell with real push. Wind is light cross-off from the NNW, clean. Energy is 3829 – moderate, but with that period, the waves will be thick and powerful. That long-period groundswell loves a reef. The afternoon gets a bit choppier.

The 9th of September has a clean morning with onshore S wind and 3.0m, but it’s rated poor – likely a tide issue. Not one for the diary.

Thursday the 10th of September – this is the big one. You’ve got a 6.0m swell from the SSW, period of 16 seconds, with a tiny 5 km/h E wind, glassy and clean. The combined energy is 18152 – very strong. For The Well, that’s massive. It’s an expert-only day. This is the single biggest and cleanest swell of the run.

Friday the 11th is a morning call with offshore N winds at 25 km/h and 3.0m SW swell, clean and good for experienced surfers. The afternoon gets rain and stronger wind.

From Saturday the 12th through Wednesday the 16th of September, it’s a mixed bag. Swell holds around 2.0m to 3.5m, but wind is mostly cross or cross-on. Quality is mediocre. Energy sits in the 2000 to 4500 range. These are days to scratch for a wave.

Then, Thursday the 17th of September, the last day in the window, brings another massive pulse: 6.0m from the SW, period 17 seconds, with gentle cross-shore winds from the ESE. Energy jumps to 21785 – that’s strong. It’s too big for most, and the wind is cross, not offshore, so it won’t be as clean as the 10th. Still, for the brave, there’ll be bombs.

If you’re looking at the second week, the 10th is the clear best – glassy, huge, and clean. The 8th is a close second for a more manageable expert session. There are a few gaps of a day or two where it’s not worth paddling, but the big swells make it worthwhile.

Respect the reef and stay safe.

Rusty.

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