The Cutting Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s heading our way for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a massive pulse of SW groundswell that’s just going to be way too much for The Cutting. We’re looking at Wednesday the 2nd with a 12 ft SW swell and a very long 16 second period. The combined energy is sitting at 5478 (moderate-to-strong), but the problem is the size. Anything over 8 ft is expert-only territory, and 12 ft is just too big for this spot. The wind is a moderate cross-offshore, which would normally be a dream, but the swell is just overpowering. The water temp is 57°, which is about average for this time of year.

The situation gets even more out of hand on Thursday the 3rd. We’re talking 16 ft to 18 ft SW swell with a 14 second period. The energy numbers are through the roof—over 10,000 and even 22,681 in the afternoon. That’s strong-to-very-strong energy. The wind is a fresh cross-shore, creating lumpy cross-chop. This is not a paddle-surfing scenario; this is a big-wave tow-in or kite-surfing setup if you’re into that.

Friday the 4th doesn’t let up. Still a 16 ft to 15 ft SW swell with a 16 second period. The energy is still in the 10,000 range. The wind does swing offshore on Friday afternoon, which is a major positive for cleanliness, but again, the size is just too much for The Cutting. This is expert-only, and even then, it’s a beast.

Saturday the 5th morning has a 13 ft SW swell with a 15 second period and a strong cross-offshore breeze. The energy is 7434 (strong). It’s clean, but still too big. By the afternoon, the wind goes cross-shore with rain showers and the surf quality drops to poor. Not worth it.

Sunday the 6th sees the swell drop to 12 ft to 10 ft, still too big. The wind is light, but cross-shore or cross-onshore, so it’s not clean.

Monday the 7th is the first day we see the swell drop to a more manageable range. Morning has 6 ft SW swell with a 13 second period and light cross-onshore wind. The energy is down to 1286 (weak-to-moderate). The score is marginal. The afternoon is 5 ft with onshore wind. Not great, but at least it’s not dangerous anymore.

Tuesday the 8th is the standout window. Morning shows a 8 ft SW swell with a very long 18 second period. That’s a proper groundswell. The energy is 3848 (moderate). The wind is a light cross-offshore from the NW, making for clean conditions. The comment says "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers." This is the best of the whole forecast. The long period will make for powerful, well-shaped waves at this exposed reef/point setup, though the long gaps between sets will make paddling out easier. Crowds are possible here. The afternoon does jump back up to 10 ft and cross-shore wind, so make the most of Tuesday morning.

From Wednesday the 9th through the end of the forecast, it’s a rollercoaster of too-big swells and marginal conditions. Wednesday the 9th has a 10 ft onshore morning and a massive 18 ft afternoon with 17 second period. The energy hits 30,579 (very strong). That’s just insane. Thursday the 10th is still 18 ft to 16 ft with light wind. Friday the 11th drops to 10 ft to 8 ft with fresh offshore wind, but the scores are marginal. The rest of the days are a mix of 7 ft to 12 ft swells with various winds, but nothing that breaks into a solid recommendation.

The Bottom Line: The best surf on offer is Tuesday morning, September 8th at The Cutting. It’s the only window where the size is manageable for experienced surfers, the wind is clean and offshore, and the swell has that long-period power. Everything else is either too big, too choppy, or marginal. If you’re an expert, that Tuesday morning is your only real shot.

Rusty.

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