The Cutting Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe. It’s gonna be a wild ride for the next couple of weeks, but you’ve got to pick your moments. There’s a lot of power on offer, and sometimes that’s too much of a good thing.

The big story is this: things start raw and messy, then clean up a bit mid-period, but mostly we’re looking at a run of solid, oversized swell that’s tricky to pin down with good conditions. The first several days are a write-off for anything but a very experienced crew, or a different sport entirely.

We kick off on Tuesday the 15th and it’s a no-go. You’ve got a solid 15ft SW swell rolling in, but with a strong breeze blowing cross-onshore at 25 mph, it’s just a mess. The wave energy is extreme (6552), but the conditions are poor. Honestly, this looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. That messy, lumpy theme carries through Tuesday and into Wednesday the 16th, where the swell sticks at 15ft and 15 seconds, but the wind turns onshore. It’s just too big and too blown out.

Thursday the 17th is a kind of turning point, though still for experts only. The swell eases to 10ft from the SW, period still a long 14 seconds. The morning is cross-onshore and bumpy, but the afternoon cleans right up. Clear skies, a gentle cross-shore breeze, and the tide lines up. This is where the day gets interesting if you’re solid in the water and have a big board. Wave energy is still strong (3017).

Friday the 18th and Saturday the 19th are where we see a real window. Friday morning at The Cutting sees a 7ft SSW groundswell with a 17-second period—that’s a very long period, which means heaps of energy (3818) and long lulls between sets. The wind is a clean cross-offshore at 16 mph, so faces will be clean. This is the best bet for the first week. Saturday afternoon is the standout. The swell holds at 8ft from the WSW, period 13 seconds, and it’s clean with a gentle cross-offshore breeze. The conditions are excellent for experienced surfers. Expect some company though—crowds are sometimes an issue here.

We then hit a lull. Sunday the 20th drops to 5ft, but the wind gets messy again, and Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 22nd see the swell spike back up over 10ft, with onshore wind. Another stretch of too big and too bumpy. Wednesday the 23rd is promising: an 8ft SW swell with 14 seconds, light cross-offshore breeze, and excellent conditions. That morning looks like a gem for the crew who can handle it.

After that, a more moderate pulse arrives around Thursday the 24th and Friday the 25th. Thursday afternoon is a highlight: 5.5ft from the SW, a moderate offshore wind at 16 mph, and the conditions are described as excellent for experienced surfers. Clean, lined up. Friday the 25th has a weird one: a 3ft SSW swell with a period of 24 seconds—that’s an incredibly long period, almost like a pulse from a distant storm. Wave energy is moderate (2393), but the cross-shore wind makes it tricky. The water temp is 58°F, which is normal for the time of year.

Then the final weekend, Saturday the 26th and Sunday the 27th, is a major step up again. The swell roars back to 13–15ft with very strong energy values (over 12000), but the wind is onshore or from the south, making it a complete mess for surfing. That’s a hard pass.

The first week of October (Monday the 28th through Wednesday the 30th) shows signs of cleaning up. Tuesday the 29th is a pure flat day, while Wednesday the 30th morning has a clean 8ft SW swell with light cross-offshore wind and excellent conditions. A decent note to end the forecast on, but by then we’re a long way out, so treat that with a pinch of salt.

Best of the bunch: My pick is Saturday the 19th afternoon at The Cutting. That’s a clean 8ft WSW groundswell with gentle offshore wind and clean conditions. It’s not too big, not too small, and the tide’s working. Get there early, because it’ll be popular. A close second is Thursday the 24th afternoon—5.5ft, offshore wind, clean. That’s a perfect size for a good session.

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