The Cutting Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I’ve had a good look at what’s coming up for The Cutting. The ocean is going to be absolutely pumping for the next two and a bit weeks, no doubt about it, but the challenge for us is that the swell is just too damn big for most of the run. This is not a beginner's playground; over 8 feet and it's expert-only territory. Let’s break it down.

The water temperature is sitting at 57°, and the anomaly is only 1° off the average, so it’s about what you’d expect for this time of year at The Cutting. Nothing wild there.

Right off the bat, Wednesday morning the 9th, we’re kicked in the face with a massive 18 feet SW groundswell rolling in at a long 19 seconds. The combined swell energy is absolutely pumping at 20073. That’s serious ocean. But the wind is honking onshore from the south at 35 km/h. It’s just too big and messy to paddle into, so the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. That pattern holds through Thursday, with 16 feet and 15 feet SW swells and cross-onshore winds. Still a pass for us.

Now, here’s the standout. Friday morning the 11th. The swell drops a touch to 12 feet from the SSW, but it’s still a long-period groundswell at 15 seconds. The combined energy is still strong at 5024. But here’s the magic: the wind goes glassy. Zero. Complete calm. For a break like The Cutting that’s exposed to the south, getting that clean, glassy surface on a big, powerful swell is a rare gift. The wave comment says wind and tide are favorable, but it’s still predicted to be too big for the break. For true experts, that morning window is the call. The swell direction (SSW) is a perfect match for the optimum. Just be aware the crowds can be *sometimes* a factor there, so get in early.

Saturday the 12th keeps the quality high. Morning brings an 12 feet SW swell with a light offshore north breeze, giving you clean waves. The afternoon goes glassy again, with 10 feet SW swell. The combined energy is still hefty at 3979. Two windows of clean, big surf.

Sunday the 13th, we see the swell backing down to 8 feet from the SW, period still a nice 15 seconds. The morning has a fresh 30 km/h offshore breeze from the north, which will groom it beautifully. The comment flags it as marginal, but with that wind, it will be clean and the size is finally getting into a more manageable range for strong intermediates. Still not for the faint-hearted. The afternoon wind goes cross-off, so it’s still rideable.

Monday the 14th is where it all drops out. The swell plummets to 4 feet and the wind turns fresh cross-shore, creating lumpy cross-chop. That’s a rest day.

A massive pulse returns for Tuesday the 15th and Wednesday the 16th. We’re looking at 15 feet to 13 feet SW swells again with long periods, around 13 to 16 seconds. The combined energy rockets back up. The wind is onshore or cross-on for most of those sessions. It’s just a wall of water with wind on it. Expert-only if anything, and a real battle.

The second week stays active. Thursday the 17th has 10 feet SW swell with a fresh cross-off wind, keeping it clean but still very big. The next real standout in the second week is Saturday the 19th. We get an 12 feet SW swell with a gentle offshore breeze from the NNE in the morning, then it backs to 10 feet in the afternoon with a light north offshore. The wind is gentle offshore and the swell is still powerful. It’s a promising window.

Sunday the 20th gets messy with strong onshore winds. Monday the 21st is a write-off with onshore chop. Then Tuesday the 22nd looks promising again, with 12 feet SW swell and a gentle offshore breeze from the north, giving you clean conditions.

Looking further out, Wednesday the 24th is a write-off with strong onshore winds and lumpy conditions. The final pulse of big swell is on the horizon for Wednesday the 23rd, but with onshore winds, it’s a pass.

To sum it up: for the experts, the clear standouts are Friday morning the 11th (glassy) and Saturday the 12th (offshore/glassy) in week one. In the second week, keep an eye on Saturday the 19th and Tuesday the 22nd for clean, big swells. For everyone else, the lack of a solid window under 8 feet with good wind is a problem for the first week. Hang tight, the conditions will shift.

Rusty.

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