The Cutting Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for The Cutting. It’s a solid, consistent S-facing spot that loves a good SW groundswell, and boy, are we getting one. But there’s a catch – for the first week and a half, it’s going to be a show for the experienced crew only. Let’s break it down.

The opening act is rough. Monday the 10th we’ve got a solid 10ft SW swell rolling in with a very long 18-second period, but the wind is howling onshore at 15-22 mph and it’s messy as all get-out. The combined swell energy is sitting at 5702 (moderate to strong), but honestly, it’s a write-off for a paddle. This is more of a kite-surfing setup.

Tuesday the 11th is where things get interesting. The swell is still a hefty 10ft from the SW, period drops a touch to 14 seconds, but the wind swings offshore from the NNW at 12 mph in the morning. The energy is still strong at 3151, but the wave comment says it all – it’s too big for this break for most folks. The afternoon cleans up with fresh offshore wind, but 8ft is still a handful.

From Wednesday the 12th right through to Sunday the 16th, we are in full-on, big-wave territory. Swell heights are bouncing between 10ft and a massive 16ft, all from the SW with long periods. The combined energy hits a staggering 22868 on the 13th – that is very, very strong. Winds are mostly cross or cross-on, so conditions are lumpy and challenging. This is expert-only water.

The turning point comes on Monday the 17th. The swell drops to a much more manageable 7ft, still from the SW, period at 13 seconds, and we get a beautiful cross-offshore breeze from the ENE at 9 mph. The energy is down to 1668 (moderate), and the conditions are clean. This is the first day that opens up to strong intermediates, but it’s still a proper swell.

The standout is hands down Tuesday the 18th. The morning kicks off with 7ft SW groundswell, 14-second period, light offshore N wind at 6 mph. Clean as a whistle. But the afternoon is the real gem – the swell eases to 5ft, the period stretches back out to a very long 18 seconds, and the wind goes glassy. Absolute zero wind. Combined energy is 2401 (moderate), and the water is glass. This is a session to circle on the calendar for experienced surfers who want clean, lined-up waves at a point/reef setup.

Wednesday the 19th keeps the good vibes rolling with 6-6ft SW swell, moderate offshore NNE wind at 12 mph, and clean conditions. Energy is moderate. Another solid day for the experienced crew.

After that, the swell backs off into the 5-5ft range on the 20th, with lighter, cleaner winds, but the energy drops and the surf becomes more marginal. Then we get a pulse back around Friday the 21st with a 10-12ft SW swell and offshore winds, but again, that’s back into too-big territory for most.

The tail end of the forecast, around Sunday the 23rd and into the 25th, offers a mix of 6-8ft SW swell with mostly clean offshore winds, but the consistency is there. It’s not going to be as punchy as that mid-week window, but for a confident surfer, there are waves to be had.

So to wrap it up: the first week is for the big-wave chargers only. The clear highlight is Tuesday the 18th, with that afternoon glass-off and long-period SW groundswell. If you can only pick one day, that’s it. Water temps are about average for the time of year, nothing wild to report there.

Keep an eye on the long-range stuff around the 23rd – it’s promising, but we’ll know more closer to the day.

Stay salty,
Rusty

Read more