The Cutting Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for The Cutting.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a proper big-swell window opening up, and it’s gonna be a wild ride for the first few days. The water temp is sitting at 58°, which is pretty much spot-on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Friday the 17th kicks things off with a solid 12ft SW groundswell, period of 16 seconds, and the energy is cranking at 5401 – that’s proper strong. Problem is, it’s too big for this break, especially for the average punter. Wind’s offshore from the north at 9 mph in the morning, which would normally be dreamy, but the swell size is a dealbreaker. The afternoon goes cross-shore, still too big. This one’s for the absolute experts only, if anyone.

Saturday the 18th is where it starts to get interesting. Morning sees 8ft SW swell with a 14-second period and cross-offshore breeze from the NNW at 6 mph. The energy’s dropped to 2080 – still healthy. By the afternoon, it gets glassy with a light WNW breeze, and the swell settles to 7ft, 13-second period. This is the standout of the whole run: clean, powerful SW groundswell, and the conditions are excellent for experienced surfers. The Cutting will be firing, but expect crowds – it’s a consistent spot and word will get out.

Sunday the 19th keeps the good times rolling. Morning has 5ft WSW swell, 12-second period, and clean offshore wind from the north at 9 mph. Energy’s moderate at 1045. Afternoon stays offshore from the NNW, 4ft swell – very good surf for the average intermediate. This is the pick for the weekend if you want something a bit more user-friendly than Saturday.

Monday the 20th offers clean 6ft WSW groundswell with a 16-second period in the morning, and similar in the afternoon. The wind is cross-offshore – not perfect, but the quality is still excellent for experienced crew. Energy sits around 1483-1492.

Tuesday the 21st morning is a beauty: 7ft SW swell, 14-second period, offshore wind from the NNW at 9 mph, energy at 1778 – clean and punchy. The afternoon gets a bit messy with cross-offshore wind and 8ft swell, still good for the experienced.

Wednesday the 22nd sees the swell back off to 7ft WSW, 12-second period, but the wind picks up to 12 mph cross-offshore – marginal conditions compared to earlier in the week. Afternoon drops to 5ft, even less energy.

Now, from Thursday the 23rd through to the end of the forecast, it’s a different story – and not a good one for paddling. From the 23rd to the 25th, we’ve got 13ft to 15ft SW swell with onshore winds up to 19 mph, and energy numbers hitting 11749 to 13190. This is pure mayhem – messy, choppy, and way too big for any sane surfer. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Friday the 24th afternoon has a 15ft SW swell, 16-second period, 9305 energy – still too big and cross-shore. Not your day.

Saturday the 25th morning offers a brief window: 13ft SW swell, cross-offshore wind from the NW at 16 mph, energy 5064 – but even the forecast notes it’s still too big for The Cutting. This is only for the absolute top-shelf big-wave chargers.

From Sunday the 26th through to Saturday the 1st of August, the swell stays huge – 10ft to 25ft – with periods ranging 11 to 18 seconds. Winds are mostly cross-offshore or cross-on, but the size is just relentless. The energy numbers are staggering: 6998, 13300, 16625, 26208, even 34493. That’s extreme wave energy. A few windows of clean-looking conditions appear, like Sunday morning the 26th with 10ft and offshore wind, but again – it’s all too big. By the 1st of August, 25ft SW swell with onshore wind – forget about it.

So to wrap it up: The one true standout is Saturday the 18th afternoon – glassy, 7ft SW groundswell, excellent quality. Next best is Sunday the 19th morning for a more manageable 5ft with offshore wind. After that, the size just blows out to dangerous levels. Keep an eye on the forecast – if the winds shift more offshore on those giant days, The Cutting could still be a big-wave spot for the brave, but for now, plan your sessions around that first weekend.

Rusty.

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