The Cutting Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.41° S 142.52° E

Issued: 3 am 04 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's The Cutting sea temperature is
15.0° C

Slightly warmer than usual

The Cutting surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


The Cutting surf forecast from 3 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 4 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 13s period, SW swell with cross-onshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Sunday 5 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 17s period, SSW swell with 14,354 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 4 Jul, 4PM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 13s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for The Cutting this week:

The surf forecast for The Cutting over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 04) at 4PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.5m and 13s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-onshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at The Cutting in the next 16 days are 5.0m 17s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 05) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.9m 4s period and expected on Saturday (Jul 11) at 10AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 4PM (Sat 4th Jul)11ft (3.5m) 13s
Best Surf 4PM (Sat 4th Jul)11ft (3.5m) 13s
Most Powerful 7AM (Sun 5th Jul)16ft (5.0m) 17s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for The Cutting over the next 16 days.


Updates in  hr  min  s Forecast update imminent

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s break down what’s headin’ to The Cutting over the next couple of weeks.

Right from the start, we’ve got some heavy swell rollin’ in, but Saturday the 4th is a no-go. You’re lookin’ at a solid 12 ft SW swell, but with a cross-onshore breeze from the SW at 15 mph, it’s choppy and blown out. The combined swell energy is pumpin’ at 4576 (moderate to strong), but with conditions this ugly, it’s not worth paddlin’ out. Water temp is around 59°, pretty much normal for this time of year.

Sunday the 5th steps it up – a 16 ft SSW groundswell with a very long 17-second period. Combined energy is rippin’ at 13155 (very strong). But it’s cross-onshore, and that size is well over 8 ft, so this is strictly for the experts, and even then it’s messy. Monday morning the 6th shows a bit of hope – swell drops to 8 ft from the SSW, and a light NNE breeze at 9 mph cleans it up. Still, conditions are only marginal. Monday afternoon is where it starts to turn. Swell drops to 7 ft, wind goes offshore from the NNE at 6 mph, and it’s clean. Combined energy is 1967 (moderate). That’s when experienced surfers will start findin’ some decent rides.

Tuesday morning the 7th is a real standout. We’ve got a 7 ft SW groundswell with a long 16-second period, combined energy of 2622 (moderate), and a light cross-offshore breeze from the NE at just 3 mph. The water’s gonna be glassy. Those long-period lines will wrap nicely around The Cutting. Crowds are possible, so get there early. It’s not for beginners – that size and period needs skill – but for the experienced crew, this is the pick of the first week.

Wednesday the 8th is another cracker for the experts. Morning brings an 8 ft SSW swell with an 18-second period – very long period groundswell – and combined energy at 5863 (moderate to strong). Wind is off from the NNE at 6 mph, so clean faces. The afternoon gets glassy with a 10 ft SW swell, but that’s pushin’ into expert-only size.

Thursday the 9th and Friday the 10th keep the quality up – 7 ft to 8 ft SW swells, clean offshore or glassy winds, combined energy around 1500-2200 (moderate). Excellent conditions for experienced surfers, with clean lines and manageable size. Saturday the 11th drops off – only 5 ft, but a fresh offshore breeze at 18-22 mph makes it blown out and marginal.

Then we hit another massive pulse. Sunday the 12th brings a 13 ft WSW swell in the morning, blowin’ up to 18 ft by afternoon with a combined energy of 16529 (very strong). The wind is fresh but cross-offshore, so it’s clean, but that size is way too big for all but the hardcore. Monday the 13th sees a huge 20-21 ft SW swell – combined energy hittin’ 16783 – but with fresh cross-shore winds and lumpy chop. That’s kite-surfing country, not paddle.

The second week calms a bit. Tuesday the 15th to Wednesday the 16th has 8 ft to 10 ft SW swell, but winds are variable and often cross-onshore, makin’ it choppy. Not the best. Thursday the 16th morning has a promising 10 ft SW swell with offshore wind from the N at 6 mph, clean, but still expert-only size.

The real highlight in the second week lands on Friday the 17th – a 7 ft SW swell, period of 14 seconds, combined energy 1918 (moderate), and a light cross-offshore breeze from the NNE. Clean and workable for experienced surfers. Saturday the 18th holds similar – 6 ft to 6 ft SW/WSW swells, light or offshore winds, clean conditions. By Sunday the 19th, it’s droppin’ to 5 ft or less with a fresh offshore, but the window is closin’.

So, if you’re chasin’ the best – hit Tuesday the 7th and Wednesday the 8th. That’s where the quality, clean wind, and solid groundswell all line up. The Cutting is consistent, so don’t worry about the lulls. Forecasts can change, but this stretch looks good for the experienced crew.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Mon afternoon, min 8°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 12°C on Tue afternoon, min 8°C on Thu morning). Wind will be generally light.

Saturday
4
Sunday
5
Monday
6
Tuesday
7
Wednesday
8
Thursday
9
Friday
10
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
!
!
!
!
!
3
4
4
4
3
4
6
!
5
4
4
5
4
4
4
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
3.5
SW
13
3.5
SW
13
5
SSW
16
5
SSW
17
4.5
SSW
16
3.5
SSW
16
2.5
SSW
14
2.2
SSW
14
1.8
SSW
13
2.2
SW
16
2.1
SW
16
2.4
SW
15
2.5
SSW
18
3
SW
17
2.5
SW
16
2.2
SW
15
2.2
SW
15
2.5
SW
16
2.3
SW
15
2
SW
14
1.7
SW
14
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
4576
4240
11203
13155
9482
5884
2887
1949
1127
2537
2129
2559
4684
5587
3619
2055
2027
3039
2208
1493
1179
Wind (km/h)
25
SW
20
SSW
15
SSE
15
ESE
20
ESE
15
ENE
15
NNE
10
NNE
10
NNE
5
NE
10
SSE
10
NNE
10
NNE
5
S
10
NNE
10
NE
5
SSE
15
NNE
10
N
5
N
15
NNE
Wind State
cross-on
cross-on
on
cross-on
cross-on
cross-off
cross-off
off
cross-off
cross-off
on
cross-off
off
glassy
off
cross-off
glassy
cross-off
off
off
off
High Tide
3:06PM0.94m
2:15AM0.53m
3:27PM0.89m
3:00AM0.54m
3:43PM0.83m
3:48AM0.56m
3:50PM0.75m
4:46AM0.58m
3:39PM0.69m
6:13AM0.60m
2:55PM0.66m
1:17PM0.71m
Low Tide
9:52PM0.38m
8:13AM0.17m
10:10PM0.35m
8:44AM0.24m
10:26PM0.33m
9:13AM0.33m
10:39PM0.30m
9:39AM0.44m
10:50PM0.26m
9:49AM0.56m
11:02PM0.21m
11:24PM0.16m
cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
part cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
clear
cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:47
7:47
7:47
7:47
7:46
7:46
7:46
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:20
5:21
5:21
5:22
5:22
5:22
5:23
 mm
Temp °C
11
11
11
11
12
10
12
13
12
11
12
12
11
12
12
10
11
10
11
12
9
Feels °C
5
6
6
6
7
6
7
10
9
10
10
10
9
10
10
8
10
7
9
10
5
Swell 1
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
3.5
SW
13
3.5
SW
13
5
SSW
16
5
SSW
17
4.5
SSW
16
3.5
SSW
16
2.5
SSW
14
2.2
SSW
14
1.8
SSW
13
2.2
SW
16
2.1
SW
16
2.4
SW
15
2.5
SSW
18
3
SW
17
2.5
SW
16
2.2
SW
15
2.2
SW
15
2.5
SW
16
2.3
SW
15
2
SW
14
1.7
SW
14
Energy kJ
4576
4240
11203
13155
9482
5884
2887
1949
1127
2537
2129
2559
4684
5587
3619
2055
2027
3039
2208
1493
1179
Swell 2
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.7
E
6
0.5
E
6
0.7
SW
18
0.7
S
9
0.6
S
10
0.4
SSE
8
1.7
SW
14
0.4
S
7
0.4
SSE
8
0.3
SSE
7
0.2
SSE
7
0.1
SE
7
Energy kJ
37
18
330
85
65
22
1179
16
19
10
5
2
Swell 3
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.8
SW
18
0.1
E
12
0.1
E
11
Energy kJ
388
3
2
Wind waves
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.5
N
3
Energy kJ
5
Nearest Offshore or Glassy
Rating
(10 max)
5
3
8
5
3
7
4
4
4
4
4
4
6
5
5
4
4
5
4
4
4
Distance (km)
145
566
280
228
331
35
2
0
0
0
57
0
0
24
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Best forecast wave conditions in Far West of Victoria
Rating
(10 max)
7
4
4
4
4
4
4
6
7
5
4
4
5
4
4
4
Best forecast wave conditions in Australia
Rating
(10 max)
5
5
8
5
9
7
4
4
8
7
4
4
6
8
5
4
4
5
4
4
4
Header Global
Rating
(10 max)
7
5
6
5
9
7
5
6
8
7
4
5
9
8
9
6
5
5
8
5
8
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the The Cutting Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for The Cutting provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at The Cutting can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our The Cutting surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (The Cutting) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for The Cutting may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Far West of Victoria? If you are looking for accommodation near The Cutting, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Far West of Victoria, consider staying in Warrnambool which is 4 km (2 miles) away. Alternatively, find information about places to stay and car hire in Portland which is 80 km (50 miles) away

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