The Cutting Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, you mob. Rusty here, and I’ve got a long look ahead for us. Let's get straight into it.

We’re talking about The Cutting. The next couple of days are a mixed bag, but there’s a real proper window of clean surf opening up for the experienced crew, and a serious big-swell event on the cards that will separate the men from the boys.

The water’s sitting at 58°, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year—no major surprises there.

The action kicks off this Saturday afternoon. The skies are clear, and we’ve got a whisper-light 3 mph glassy offshore wind from the west. The swell is a solid 7 ft from the southwest with a 13-second period. The energy is pumping hard, and the wave comment calls it excellent for experienced surfers. This is a strong start. The wave faces will be clean and powerful. Keep in mind, at over 5 ft, this is not beginner territory.

Sunday morning and afternoon drop down a bit to 5 ft and 4 ft from the west-southwest, with a 12-second period. It’s a northerly offshore breeze at 9 mph, keeping the waves clean. It’s a good option for intermediates who found Saturday a bit heavy.

Monday morning brings a solid 6 ft from the west-southwest, but the period jumps to a very long 16 seconds. The offshore wind from the north-northwest at 12 mph keeps it clean. That long period will mean the waves are more powerful and the sets have proper spacing. For a beach break, this can make them a bit straight, but The Cutting can handle it.

Tuesday morning is a standout. We get 8 ft of southwest swell with a 13-second period, and a moderate offshore from the north-northwest at 12 mph. This is genuine excellent surf for the experienced crew. The wave quality will be high, the face will be steep, and there will be power in every wave. This is easily the best on offer in the first week.

From Wednesday onwards, things get messy and then outright dangerous. Wednesday morning is already cross-shore at 16 mph, and the swell is 5 ft but with a poor quality cross-chop. Then Wednesday afternoon you’re looking at 22 mph cross-onshore winds, 13 ft of swell, and poor conditions. By Thursday and Friday, we’re seeing 15 ft+ groundswells. The forecast explicitly says the swell is too big for this break. Even if the winds are favorable, it’s just not a paddle situation—this is strictly for the tow crews or a kite session if the wind holds.

After that big energy spike, there’s a slow drop. The weekend of the 25th and 26th still has 10 ft and 7 ft swells with clean offshore winds, but it remains expert-only territory for most of that.

The first few days of August show a potential return to form. On Sunday morning, August 2nd, we have an 8 ft swell from the west-southwest with a very long 17-second period. The wind is a gentle offshore from the northeast at just 9 mph. The energy is massive, and the report calls it exceptional for experts. This is our long-range standout. It’s a long way off, so don’t book your flights yet, but if the models hold, this is going to be a serious session for the specialists.

For the average surfer, the best realistic windows are Saturday afternoon the 18th and Tuesday morning the 21st. If you’re an expert, circle Tuesday the 21st and keep an eye on Sunday August 2nd.

Remember, the period between Wednesday the 23rd and the end of the month has a lot of swell that’s too big or too wind-affected for a quality paddle. There’s a gap of nearly a week where the conditions are either dangerous or poor, so pick your moments.

Stay safe, read the conditions, and don’t get caught out by the big ones.

Rusty.

Read more