The Cutting Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.41° S 142.52° E

The Cutting Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 23 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's The Cutting sea temperature is
14.4° C
0.4° 

The Cutting surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


The Cutting surf forecast from 23 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Thursday 23 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 14s period, SW swell with cross-onshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 29 Jul, 7AM (local time) - 25ft (7.5m), 16s period, SW swell with 28,137 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 23 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 14s period with SW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for The Cutting this week:

The surf forecast for The Cutting over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 23) at 1PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 4.5m and 14s period with a secondary swell of 4.5m and 14s. The wind is predicted to be cross-onshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at The Cutting in the next 16 days are 7.5m 16s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Jul 29) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.0m 10s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 28) at 7AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 1PM (Thu 23rd Jul)15ft (4.5m) 14s
Best Surf 1PM (Thu 23rd Jul)15ft (4.5m) 14s
Most Powerful 7AM (Wed 29th Jul)25ft (7.5m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for The Cutting over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Righto, let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ at The Cutting.

First up, the water temp is sittin’ around 58°F, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year – nothin’ wild there.

Now, straight off the bat, I gotta tell ya – there’s a big, lumpy mess on the cards for the next few days. We’ve got a serious SW swell pourin’ in, pushin’ 15 ft to 16 ft, with a heavy combined wave energy (7478 to 16605). That’s a lot of water movin’. Problem is, the wind is howlin’ from the WSW at 19 to 22 mph, blowin’ straight across or onshore, so the surface is gonna be a total write-off. Thursday arvo (23rd July) through Saturday are a no-go – too big and too chopped up. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing right now.

Come Sunday the 26th of July, things start to settle. The swell drops to a much more manageable 8 ft from the SW, and the wind swings around to a light cross-offshore (NW 12 mph). It’s clean for the first time. But the wave energy is down to around 1700, and the period is a middling 11 seconds. The forecast calls it marginal, and I’d agree – it’s a small step in the right direction, but nothin’ to write home about. Monday and Tuesday keep that clean cross-off wind, but the swell hovers around 8-8 ft.

Now, the standout window comes in the second week. Let’s look at Sunday the 2nd of August. We’ve got a solid 10 ft SW groundswell, with a long 16-second period. That’s the kind of energy that gets your blood pumpin’. The wind is light from the NNW, 6 mph, and cross-offshore. It’ll be glassy. The combined energy is a healthy 4076. This is a real opportunity, but heads up – The Cutting is an exposed spot, and with a period that long, those sets could line up a bit too straight for a beach break. Still, if the tide plays ball, this is easily the best on offer. The Monday the 3rd also looks promising with another 12 ft SW swell and clean offshore winds (WNW 12 mph), but again, it’s pushing big for a spot like this.

There’s a real blinder of a pulse on Thursday the 6th of August – 13 ft SW swell with an 18-second period, and a combined energy of 13059. That’s some serious power. The wind is light cross-on from the ESE, so it’ll be clean with just a few ripples. But honestly, at this size and with that kind of period, it’s for experts only. This break will be a freight train.

For the everyday surfer, your best bet is Sunday the 2nd of August morning – 10 ft of clean, long-period SW swell with light offshore winds. It’s the pick of the run, but keep in mind, this is a consistent spot and crowds can pop up here sometimes, especially when it’s good. The long period groundswell will work best if you’ve got a point or a reef in mind; at a beach break it might be a bit straight.

All in all, there’s proper swell on the way, but the first week is a write-off. The second week holds the real promise. Keep an eye on that big energy pulse, but be ready for a serious session.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 13mm), heaviest on Sat night. Very mild (max 14°C on Sat afternoon, min 10°C on Thu morning). Mainly fresh winds.

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Heavy rain (total 21mm), heaviest during Tue afternoon. Very mild (max 15°C on Mon afternoon, min 6°C on Tue afternoon). Winds increasing (light winds from the NW on Sun night, fresh winds from the SSW by Tue afternoon).

Thursday
23
Friday
24
Saturday
25
Sunday
26
Monday
27
Tuesday
28
Wednesday
29
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
0
!
!
!
0
!
0
!
!
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
!
0
!
!
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
4.5
SW
14
4.5
SW
14
5.5
SW
16
5
SSW
15
4.5
SW
14
4.5
SW
13
4
SW
13
4
SW
13
3
SW
12
2.5
SW
11
2.5
SW
11
2.5
SW
10
2.4
SW
11
2.5
SW
11
2.5
SW
13
1.7
SSW
15
3
SSW
16
6
SW
12
7
SW
16
6
SSW
15
4.5
SSW
13
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
7478
8741
13867
11915
8933
7329
5410
4710
2494
1625
1487
1418
1338
1456
2045
1258
4214
10489
24607
15359
6850
Wind (km/h)
30
WSW
35
WSW
35
SW
30
W
35
W
30
W
30
WSW
25
WSW
20
W
20
NW
20
W
20
NNW
25
NNW
30
NNW
35
NNW
35
NNW
25
NW
40
SSW
40
SSW
40
SSW
35
S
Wind State
cross-on
cross-on
cross-on
cross
cross
cross
cross-on
cross
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-on
on
on
on
High Tide
3:03PM0.72m
2:20PM0.72m
1:03PM0.76m
12:45PM0.82m
12:55PM0.88m
1:12PM0.92m
1:30PM0.95m
00:00AM0.43m
Low Tide
10:56PM0.15m
11:26PM0.17m
00:07AM0.21m
1:58AM0.23m
4:17AM0.21m
5:21AM0.17m
9:02PM0.39m
rain showers
rain showers
cloud
part cloud
cloud
light rain
rain showers
cloud
rain showers
light rain
rain showers
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
rain showers
rain showers
mod rain
light rain
light rain
cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:39
7:37
7:37
7:37
7:35
7:35
7:33
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:32
5:34
5:35
5:35
5:36
5:37
5:37
 mm
1
1
3
2
6
2
1
3
7
8
2
2
Temp °C
11
11
11
12
12
13
13
14
12
14
14
12
14
15
13
13
12
9
9
9
10
Feels °C
3
3
3
4
4
7
7
9
7
10
10
9
8
8
5
6
7
-1
-1
-1
1
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  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the The Cutting Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for The Cutting provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at The Cutting can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our The Cutting surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (The Cutting) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for The Cutting may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Far West of Victoria? If you are looking for accommodation near The Cutting, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Far West of Victoria, consider staying in Warrnambool which is 4 km (2 miles) away. Alternatively, find information about places to stay and car hire in Portland which is 80 km (50 miles) away

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