The Cutting Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Looks like we're in for a wild ride at The Cutting, but honestly, for most of this outlook, it’s more of a spectacle than a surf. The forecast is dominated by a massive, relentless run of south-west groundswell, and while The Cutting is exposed and consistent, the size and wind combo is going to lock it out for the average punter for a long stretch.

The trouble kicks off right now. Come Monday afternoon, the 31st of August, we’ve got a clean 10 ft SW groundswell rolling in with 14-second intervals and that gorgeous glassy 3 mph southerly breeze. The water’s sitting at 57°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, and the combined energy is massive at 5243. But here’s the kicker – even with perfect wind and tide, the swell is simply too big. This is expert-only territory from the get-go, and realistically, it’s not letting up for over a week.

Tuesday morning the 1st of September gets a brief window of clean offshore wind at 22 mph from the NNW, but the swell is still a chunky 8 ft with a very long 16-second period. That period is a double-edged sword – it brings proper energy (2910 energy) and shape, but at a beach break like The Cutting, a groundswell this straight and powerful can be tricky. The afternoon swings to a lumpy cross-offshore wind, and it’s just a tough call all day.

From Wednesday the 2nd of September right through to Monday the 14th of September, the story is grim and repetitive. Every single day, the swell sits between 8 ft and a monstrous 23 ft, with combined energy regularly hitting four-digit and even five-digit figures. For example, Thursday the 3rd of September sees a 20 ft SW swell with a 14-second period and an insane 26680 energy, but it’s accompanied by a 22 mph cross-shore wind that’s going to turn it into a washing machine. Friday the 4th of September offers a clean, fresh offshore wind of 19 mph from the NNW with a 15 ft SW swell (15-second period), but again, it’s just too damn big for most.

There is a small glimmer of hope. On Saturday the 12th of September, the swell drops to a more manageable 8 ft, but the morning window has a clean cross-offshore breeze from the NNW. It’s still borderline, and the energy is moderate (2127), but this is the only time in the entire 16 days where the combination of size and wind looks even remotely accessible for a strong intermediate. The afternoon turns choppy with a cross-onshore wind, so the morning session is the only chance.

Sunday the 13th and Monday the 14th of September are back to the same old story: clean winds but swells climbing back to 10 ft - 12 ft, too big for comfortable paddling.

Honestly, if you’re a kitesurfer, the whole first week and a half looks absolutely insane with that relentless SW swell and strong cross-shore winds – the setup is far more interesting for you than for a paddle surfer. For the rest of us, pick your moment very carefully on the morning of Saturday the 12th of September, or just sit this one out. It’s a long, heavy run of wave energy, and while The Cutting is consistent, it’s not playing nice this time.

Rusty.

Read more