The Cutting Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – this forecast for The Cutting is a wild one. The whole 16-day window is absolutely dominated by huge, powerful SW groundswells, but almost the entire run is way too big for a standard paddle session. There’s a short window at the very start that’s just about manageable, and then it’s a long stretch of XXL stuff that’s really only for the brave or the crazy. Water temps are about average for the time of year, so a steamer is optional but you’ll be thankful for it in the mornings.

Let’s start with the only real window for most of us. Sunday the 30th of August kicks off with a 2.5m (8ft) SW swell, period 13 seconds – that’s a decent groundswell (combined energy 2754). The wind is cross-onshore from the WSW at 15 km/h (9 mph), making it a bit choppy, but the swell isn’t monstrous yet. It’s a “marginal” call, but it’s the most approachable size in the whole outlook. By Sunday afternoon, it jumps to 3.0m (10ft), and while the wind stays similar, it’s already crossing the threshold. Still, for the experienced surfer that Sunday morning session is your best chance to get a few without being totally on the edge.

From Monday the 31st of August right through to at least Monday the 14th of September, the swell sits between 2.1m (7ft) and a staggering 8.5m (28ft), with periods ranging from 12 to 17 seconds. The combined energy values are through the roof – three and four-digit numbers like 4770, 5052, then climbing to 13396, 11106, and even 38954. This is serious, heavy ocean energy. The wind is often clean – offshore or cross-off from the NNW and NW – giving it a clean face, but the problem is the size. Anything over 2.5m (8ft) is expert territory, and this is way beyond that for days on end. Monday 31st August has some glassy conditions on the afternoon, but again, 3.0m (10ft) and a long 14-second period is only for the well-equipped crew who know how to handle a big, pulsing lineup.

The middle of the first week, around the 4th and 5th of September, sees the swell hit 5.0m (16ft) to 6.0m (20ft) with strong winds. Thursday the 3rd has lumpy cross-chop, and Friday the 4th has a clean offshore look but the swell is 5.0m (16ft). By Saturday the 5th, we’ve got a risk of thunderstorms and a 5.5m (18ft) WSW swell with 45 km/h (28 mph) cross-off winds – that’s more of a survival mission than a surf. Honestly, this setup from the 2nd through the 10th of September looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing if you can handle the conditions.

The swell finally starts to drop a little around the 10th of September, with 3.0m (10ft) on the morning and 2.5m (8ft) in the afternoon, but the period drops to 12 seconds and the combined energy is still 2963 and 2164. That afternoon is labelled marginal, and it’s a cross-shore chop. The 11th and 12th bring back 3.0m (10ft) to 3.5m (12ft) swells with clean, light winds, but it’s still big for most people. The genuine highlight and the only true standout in this whole run is that first session on Sunday morning August 30th – it’s the only time the conditions and size align for a decent, if not perfect, paddle session. Everything else is either too big, too messy, or both.

Signing off, Rusty.

Read more