The Cutting Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey folks, Rusty here. Let's talk about what's coming up at The Cutting Diagnostic region‑wide.

Alright, straight up – this is one of those rare stretches where the only game in town is also the only game for miles, and it's gonna be a wild ride. The first few days are a complete write‑off for paddle surfing. We've got a massive swell, with wave heights over 20ft and combined swell energy readings around 20,190 to 29,259 – seriously heavy, dangerous water. The wind is howling from the SW at 30 mph, making for messy, blown‑out conditions. Even if you're an experienced surfer, this is way too big and messy to even think about. This is strictly for the big‑wave tow crews or kite surfers if they're insane. This big, raw energy carries through the weekend and into the start of next week. The swell stays above 12ft through Sunday and Monday morning, with cross‑onshore winds keeping everything choppy. Don't bother paddling out – you'll just get smashed.

So, the first realistic window opens on Monday 6 July. That's the standout of the whole forecast. The swell drops to a more manageable 8ft, but it's still a solid wave. The key here is the wind swings around to a clean offshore from the NNE at 12 mph. The water temperature is sitting at 59°, which is about average for this time of year – your usual summer wetsuit. Monday morning and afternoon both get called "excellent for experienced surfers." The swell direction is SSW, period is a long 14 seconds – that's real groundswell with proper push. The combined energy is still moderate at 2,735. This is the pick of the 16‑day window: a powerful, clean wave for anyone who's confident on an 8ft wave. Tuesday 7 July is also very good – the swell backs off to 6ft in the morning with light offshore winds from the NNW, giving you glassy, clean conditions. Tuesday afternoon gets a bit of a cross‑onshore breeze, so hunt the morning.

Now, for a while there's another bump in swell. Around Wednesday 8 July and Thursday 9 July, the swell pulses back up to 12ft, which is borderline for a lot of spots. But keep your eye on Thursday 9 July afternoon. The wind dies right off – completely glassy, with only 3 mph from the ESE. The swell drops to a sweet 8ft from the SW, period of 15 seconds – very long period groundswell. Energy is moderate at 2,244. This is another true standout. A setup like that over a point or reef would be special. For a beach break it might be a little straight with that long period, but clean, glassy, 8ft waves are hard to beat. Morning that day is also clean with a cross‑offshore breeze. Friday 10 July and Saturday 11 July keep the good vibes going – consistent 7ft SSW swell with clean offshore winds. The crowd factor at The Cutting is listed as "sometimes," so you could have a few out, but mainly you'll have it good.

We hit a minor lull around Sunday 12 July and Monday 13 July as the swell drops a little, then we get another big pulse. Tuesday 14 July things turn nasty again – SSW swell jumps to 16ft with onshore winds, totally blown out. That lasts into Wednesday 15 July with strong cross‑onshore winds. Not worth a look. Thursday 16 July and Friday 17 July are still messy with shorter period S swells. Not good.

The very last day, Saturday 18 July, is interesting. The swell drops right down to about 4ft, but it's a long 17 second period groundswell from the SW. Winds are light offshore from the NNE at 3 mph. Combined energy is weak at 1,102. This is a tiny, clean wave – a longboard or a foam board kind of day, but for the experienced crew, it'll be clean and playful in the morning.

So to wrap it up: the only true, non‑negotiable standouts are Monday 6 July and Thursday 9 July (afternoon) . Both offer clean, solid groundswell with favorable wind. The rest of the window is either too big and messy or too lully. The first few days are completely out. For the second week, just keep an eye on Thursday the 9th and that final Saturday the 18th for small clean waves.

Rusty.

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