The Cutting Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.41° S 142.52° E

The Cutting Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 9 am 09 Sep 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's The Cutting sea temperature is
14.1°C
0.6° 

The Cutting surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


The Cutting surf forecast from 9 Sep 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Wednesday 9 Sep, 4PM (local time) - 18ft (5.5m), 17s period, SSW swell with onshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Wednesday 9 Sep, 10PM (local time) - 18ft (5.5m), 17s period, SSW swell with 19,025 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 9 Sep, 4PM (local time) - 18ft (5.5m), 17s period with SSW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for The Cutting this week:

The surf forecast for The Cutting over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 4PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 5.5m and 17s period. The wind is predicted to be onshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at The Cutting in the next 16 days are 5.5m 17s and forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Sep 09) at 10PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.8m 7s period and expected on Monday (Sep 14) at 7AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 4PM (Wed 9th Sep)18ft (5.5m) 17s
Best Surf 4PM (Wed 9th Sep)18ft (5.5m) 17s
Most Powerful10PM (Wed 9th Sep)18ft (5.5m) 17s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for The Cutting over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, Rusty here, and I’ve had a good look at what’s coming up for The Cutting. The ocean is going to be absolutely pumping for the next two and a bit weeks, no doubt about it, but the challenge for us is that the swell is just too damn big for most of the run. This is not a beginner's playground; over 8 feet and it's expert-only territory. Let’s break it down.

The water temperature is sitting at 57°, and the anomaly is only 1° off the average, so it’s about what you’d expect for this time of year at The Cutting. Nothing wild there.

Right off the bat, Wednesday morning the 9th, we’re kicked in the face with a massive 18 feet SW groundswell rolling in at a long 19 seconds. The combined swell energy is absolutely pumping at 20073. That’s serious ocean. But the wind is honking onshore from the south at 35 km/h. It’s just too big and messy to paddle into, so the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. That pattern holds through Thursday, with 16 feet and 15 feet SW swells and cross-onshore winds. Still a pass for us.

Now, here’s the standout. Friday morning the 11th. The swell drops a touch to 12 feet from the SSW, but it’s still a long-period groundswell at 15 seconds. The combined energy is still strong at 5024. But here’s the magic: the wind goes glassy. Zero. Complete calm. For a break like The Cutting that’s exposed to the south, getting that clean, glassy surface on a big, powerful swell is a rare gift. The wave comment says wind and tide are favorable, but it’s still predicted to be too big for the break. For true experts, that morning window is the call. The swell direction (SSW) is a perfect match for the optimum. Just be aware the crowds can be *sometimes* a factor there, so get in early.

Saturday the 12th keeps the quality high. Morning brings an 12 feet SW swell with a light offshore north breeze, giving you clean waves. The afternoon goes glassy again, with 10 feet SW swell. The combined energy is still hefty at 3979. Two windows of clean, big surf.

Sunday the 13th, we see the swell backing down to 8 feet from the SW, period still a nice 15 seconds. The morning has a fresh 30 km/h offshore breeze from the north, which will groom it beautifully. The comment flags it as marginal, but with that wind, it will be clean and the size is finally getting into a more manageable range for strong intermediates. Still not for the faint-hearted. The afternoon wind goes cross-off, so it’s still rideable.

Monday the 14th is where it all drops out. The swell plummets to 4 feet and the wind turns fresh cross-shore, creating lumpy cross-chop. That’s a rest day.

A massive pulse returns for Tuesday the 15th and Wednesday the 16th. We’re looking at 15 feet to 13 feet SW swells again with long periods, around 13 to 16 seconds. The combined energy rockets back up. The wind is onshore or cross-on for most of those sessions. It’s just a wall of water with wind on it. Expert-only if anything, and a real battle.

The second week stays active. Thursday the 17th has 10 feet SW swell with a fresh cross-off wind, keeping it clean but still very big. The next real standout in the second week is Saturday the 19th. We get an 12 feet SW swell with a gentle offshore breeze from the NNE in the morning, then it backs to 10 feet in the afternoon with a light north offshore. The wind is gentle offshore and the swell is still powerful. It’s a promising window.

Sunday the 20th gets messy with strong onshore winds. Monday the 21st is a write-off with onshore chop. Then Tuesday the 22nd looks promising again, with 12 feet SW swell and a gentle offshore breeze from the north, giving you clean conditions.

Looking further out, Wednesday the 24th is a write-off with strong onshore winds and lumpy conditions. The final pulse of big swell is on the horizon for Wednesday the 23rd, but with onshore winds, it’s a pass.

To sum it up: for the experts, the clear standouts are Friday morning the 11th (glassy) and Saturday the 12th (offshore/glassy) in week one. In the second week, keep an eye on Saturday the 19th and Tuesday the 22nd for clean, big swells. For everyone else, the lack of a solid window under 8 feet with good wind is a problem for the first week. Hang tight, the conditions will shift.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri morning, min 10°C on Wed night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the S on Wed morning, calm by Fri morning).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Warm (max 23°C on Sun afternoon, min 11°C on Mon night). Winds increasing (calm on Sat afternoon, fresh winds from the W by Mon afternoon).

Wednesday
9
Thursday
10
Friday
11
Saturday
12
Sunday
13
Monday
14
Tuesday
15
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
5
3
2
4
1
0
0
!
!
!
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
5.5
SSW
19
5.5
SSW
17
5.5
SSW
17
5
SSW
16
4.5
SW
16
3.5
SW
15
3.5
SSW
15
4
SSW
16
4
SSW
16
3.5
SW
15
3
SW
15
2.5
SW
15
2.3
SW
15
2
SW
15
1.8
SW
14
1.4
SW
13
1.1
SW
13
3
SW
11
4.5
SW
13
4
SW
13
3.5
SW
14
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
20073
17904
18475
11980
9048
5940
5024
7014
7171
4811
3979
3040
2359
1761
1255
704
424
2086
6366
5327
4533
Wind (km/h)
35
S
25
SSW
15
SSW
15
SSW
15
SSW
5
SSE
0
ESE
15
SSE
10
NE
10
N
0
E
15
NNE
30
N
30
NNW
15
NNW
25
WNW
30
W
20
SW
15
SSW
15
S
10
NNE
Wind State
on
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
glassy
glassy
on
cross-off
off
glassy
off
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-on
on
on
cross-off
High Tide
12:53PM0.88m
11:50PM0.40m
12:54PM0.86m
00:05AM0.53m
12:56PM0.82m
00:33AM0.67m
1:01PM0.79m
1:03AM0.78m
1:07PM0.77m
1:33AM0.86m
1:16PM0.75m
2:02AM0.90m
1:26PM0.74m
2:31AM0.91m
Low Tide
8:56PM0.37m
5:13AM0.24m
7:39PM0.40m
6:00AM0.21m
7:09PM0.34m
6:37AM0.20m
7:04PM0.26m
7:08AM0.22m
7:12PM0.17m
7:37AM0.25m
7:26PM0.09m
8:02AM0.30m
7:45PM0.03m
cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
clear
clear
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
6:41
6:39
6:37
6:35
6:35
6:33
6:31
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
6:14
6:15
6:15
6:15
6:16
6:17
6:19
 mm
Temp °C
11
11
10
11
11
11
13
13
12
17
18
16
21
23
16
16
16
12
11
11
9
Feels °C
2
4
5
7
7
9
10
9
8
16
18
13
15
18
15
10
10
7
6
7
6
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the The Cutting Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for The Cutting provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at The Cutting can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our The Cutting surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (The Cutting) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for The Cutting may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Far West of Victoria? If you are looking for accommodation near The Cutting, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Far West of Victoria, consider staying in Warrnambool which is 4 km (2 miles) away. Alternatively, find information about places to stay and car hire in Portland which is 80 km (50 miles) away

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