The Cutting Surf Break

Lat Long: 38.41° S 142.52° E

The Cutting Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 3 am 12 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's The Cutting sea temperature is
14.7° C
0.6° 

The Cutting surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


The Cutting surf forecast from 12 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Sunday 12 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 18ft (5.5m), 13s period, WSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Monday 13 Jul, 1PM (local time) - 23ft (7.0m), 16s period, WSW swell with 22,089 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Sunday 12 Jul, 7PM (local time) - 18ft (5.5m), 13s period with WSW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for The Cutting this week:

The surf forecast for The Cutting over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Sunday (Jul 12) at 7PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 5.5m and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0.2m and 24s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at The Cutting in the next 16 days are 7.0m 16s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 13) at 1PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.0m 4s period and expected on Sunday (Jul 19) at 10AM.

Wave TypeTime (AEST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 7PM (Sun 12th Jul)18ft (5.5m) 13s
Best Surf 7PM (Sun 12th Jul)18ft (5.5m) 13s
Most Powerful 1PM (Mon 13th Jul)23ft (7.0m) 16s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for The Cutting over the next 16 days.


Righto, let’s have a look at what’s shaping up for The Cutting over the next couple of weeks. I’ll tell ya straight up – this spot gets hammered by some serious size, and for the first week or so, it’s just too much for a normal paddle. We’ve got a massive run of strong south-west groundswells rolling in, and the energy numbers are telling the story – we're seeing combined swell energy values like 8583, 9468, even a monster 37568 early on. That’s serious, heavy water. The water temp here is sitting at 15° which is pretty normal for this time of year, nothing weird going on there.

The main window of opportunity – the stuff worth getting out of bed for – is Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th. Saturday morning drops to a more manageable 7 ft of SW swell with a clean 13-second period, and a light offshore breeze from the north. That’s gentle offshore and clean, perfect for the experienced crew. Saturday afternoon stays sweet at 6 ft with light offshores. Sunday the 19th morning sees 5 ft from the WSW, moderate offshore wind, still clean, but then Sunday afternoon the swell drops to 4 ft with a very long 18-second period – still offshore but the period’s so long it might make for tricky, walled-up waves at a beach break like this. Still, that Saturday and Sunday morning are your pick.

Now before that, from Sunday the 12th all the way through to Friday the 17th, it’s all oversized – 18 ft, 21 ft, 16 ft – just too big and mostly with strong, messy winds. That’s only for the brave or the stupid, and even then, the conditions are poor. Tuesday the 14th and Wednesday the 15th start to ease a bit but are still too big for most, and the wind is cross or cross-on, so it’s choppy.

After that good spell on the 18th and 19th, we hit another rough patch. Monday the 20th through to Thursday the 24th is a mix of marginal surf and questionable conditions – the swell is back up to 8 ft to 10 ft, sometimes with cross-off winds but also some rain showers and lumpy chop. Not great. Friday the 24th afternoon does see a spike in energy (3974) with 8 ft from the SW and a very long 19-second period, but it’s blowing a strong cross-off 25 mph – think clean but wild.

Then we get another big pulse on Saturday the 25th – 12 ft of SW swell, massive energy (6246), but again, it’s too big for this break and the wind turns messy. Sunday the 26th and Monday the 27th are still solid, but the wind is fresh and the swell is too big or the quality is marginal. Monday afternoon the 27th has a 10 ft SW swell with a strong offshore 25 mph wind – clean but hard to paddle into and only for experts.

So the standout in this 16-day run is the morning of Saturday the 18th and the morning of Sunday the 19th – that’s your window. The rest is either too big, too messy, or just not worth the effort. If you’re a kiter, the whole run from the 12th to the 17th looks more interesting for you than for a surfer.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 13mm), heaviest on Sun night. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon morning, min 11°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the WNW on Sun morning, light winds from the WSW by Tue afternoon).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Wed afternoon, min 10°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light.

Sunday
12
Monday
13
Tuesday
14
Wednesday
15
Thursday
16
Friday
17
Saturday
18
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
!
0
!
!
!
!
0
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
4
4
4
4
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
5.5
WSW
12
5.5
WSW
13
6
WSW
14
6.5
WSW
16
6.5
SW
16
6.5
SW
15
5
SW
15
4.5
SW
15
4
SW
15
3.5
SW
14
3.5
SW
14
3
SW
14
3
SW
14
3
SW
15
3.5
SW
15
3.5
SW
16
3
SW
15
2.5
SW
14
2.1
SW
13
1.9
SW
13
1.6
WSW
13
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
8583
9420
13073
20435
19314
19317
12769
9903
6678
4974
3923
3469
3609
3762
5250
5535
3919
2606
1452
1242
799
Wind (km/h)
45
WNW
45
W
40
WNW
40
WNW
45
WNW
35
W
25
WSW
20
WSW
15
W
20
WNW
15
WSW
15
NW
15
NW
10
WNW
10
NNW
10
N
5
N
15
N
15
N
10
NNW
15
NNE
Wind State
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross
cross-on
cross
cross
cross-off
cross
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
off
off
glassy
off
off
off
off
High Tide
12:45PM0.92m
1:09PM0.98m
1:33PM1.01m
1:54PM1.01m
2:11PM0.98m
11:46PM0.51m
2:25PM0.94m
1:05AM0.58m
2:38PM0.89m
2:04AM0.64m
Low Tide
1:32AM0.10m
3:28AM0.08m
4:53AM0.04m
5:55AM0.03m
9:20PM0.49m
6:46AM0.04m
8:53PM0.44m
7:29AM0.09m
8:57PM0.35m
rain showers
light rain
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
rain showers
cloud
part cloud
cloud
part cloud
cloud
cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:45
7:45
7:43
7:43
7:43
7:43
7:41
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:24
5:25
5:25
5:27
5:28
5:28
5:29
 mm
2
1
5
2
1
2
Temp °C
13
13
12
14
13
12
13
13
13
13
14
14
13
14
12
12
13
11
12
14
12
Feels °C
4
4
4
5
4
5
7
8
9
10
11
11
11
12
10
10
12
8
8
12
8
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the The Cutting Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for The Cutting provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at The Cutting can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our The Cutting surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (The Cutting) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for The Cutting may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Are you planning a holiday in Far West of Victoria? If you are looking for accommodation near The Cutting, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Far West of Victoria, consider staying in Warrnambool which is 4 km (2 miles) away. Alternatively, find information about places to stay and car hire in Portland which is 80 km (50 miles) away

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