The Cutting Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for The Cutting. This is a wild ride, so strap in.

The next week and a half is all about one spot: The Cutting. No other breaks are on the radar. Brace yourselves, because it’s going to be a long, frustrating wait for most of us.

We start off with a real dud. Tuesday the 14th is a complete write-off. There’s a massive, powerful 18-foot SW groundswell (16-second period) churning in, with combined energy readings way up in the 13,967 range—that’s some serious ocean power. But a howling 35 km/h W wind is on top of it, wrecking any hope of a clean wave. That’s a kite surfers' day, not a paddle surfers'.

The situation doesn't really improve for several days. From Wednesday the 15th through Friday the 17th, the swell is still too big and raw for The Cutting. It’s a solid 12-foot from the SW with a long period, but the winds are mostly cross or cross-offshore. The forecast even says "wind and tide favorable, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break." It’s a powerful, surging beast, and for a spot that’s an exposed reef or point, it’s just going to be a washing machine. You’d have to be a seriously experienced local to even think about it.

Finally, we get a window. Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th is where the magic happens, and this is the standout of the whole forecast. The swell drops to a much friendlier 8-foot to 4-foot, still from the SW, with that nice long-period energy (13-12 seconds). But the real hero is the wind – it swings offshore from the N and NNE, going glassy light on Saturday afternoon. The combined energy is in the moderate range (1,823 to 939). This is "clean" and "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers." It’ll be proper, lined-up groundswell peeling down the reef. The water temp is a bit warmer than average for the time of year, about 15°, which is a nice bonus.

It stays clean and fun through Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st. The wind stays offshore, and we’ve got a decent 6-foot to 7-foot SW groundswell. Not as punchy as the weekend, but still very good, solid surf for a surfer who knows their way around. The week of the 21st keeps the fun going with a 7-foot WSW swell and clean offshore winds on Tuesday morning.

But don’t get too comfortable. Wednesday the 22nd sees another pulse of swell, 10-foot, and the winds go cross-off. It’s a big, lumpy mix. Then, there’s a warning sign: from Thursday the 23rd all the way through the end of July, it looks like the ocean just dials it up again. Friday the 24th has a 13-foot SW swell with fresh, strong cross-off winds. This is back in the "too big for this break" territory, with combined energy over 7,000. The wind shifts onshore from the S on the 25th and 26th, making conditions "poor" and marginal.

There is a small glimmer in the very far-off window. Around Monday the 28th and Tuesday the 29th, the swell backs down to a mellow 5-foot from the SW, with clean offshore or even glassy winds. The combined energy is weak (600-800), but it’s clean. This is promising, but it’s nearly two weeks away, so take it with a grain of salt right now.

The Bottom Line: If you’re an experienced surfer looking for a pristine, powerful groundswell, Saturday the 18th is your day. Glassy, offshore, solid 8-foot SW swell. A total standout. The following Monday and Tuesday are also very solid. Ignore the first week of chaos. The last few days of the forecast offer clean, smaller surf for the patient ones.

Stay safe out there.

Rusty

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