Tairua Bar Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for Tairua Bar. If you’re chasing waves, you’re going to have to be patient, because there’s a long stretch of flat or near-flat conditions before anything worth paddling out for shows up.

Right now, and for the next several days, it’s basically a write-off. From Thursday 10 September all the way through to the end of the second week, the swell is tiny – we’re talking 0.3ft to 1ft – and the combined swell energy is weak, hanging around the 10 to 85 mark. That’s barely a ripple. Winds are mostly cross-off or offshore, so it’s clean, but there’s just no push. You’d be sitting there floating. Honestly, if you’re thinking of kiting, the clean wind might be more your thing, because for a paddle surfer, there’s nothing doing.

We finally get a little flicker of life on Wednesday 23 September. The morning shows 2ft from the NNE with a period of 8 seconds – that’s short-period windswell, not a proper groundswell. Combined energy bumps to 73 (weak), but it’s surfable in a very ordinary way. The wind is offshore from the WSW at 12 mph, so it’ll be clean. By the afternoon, the swell edges up to 3ft from the north, period still 8 seconds, and energy hits 139 (moderate). Offshore winds lighten to 9 mph. It’s still small, but there’s a bit more life. Crowds are possible here – Tairua Bar can get busy when there’s any swell.

Thursday 24 September keeps that modest pulse going: 3ft from the NNE in the morning, period 9 seconds, energy 110 (moderate), with light WNW cross-off wind at 3 mph – glassy. The afternoon sees 2ft from the NE, period 9 seconds, energy 89 (weak), but offshore wind at 9 mph keeps it clean. Still, these are beginner-friendly heights under 5ft, so it’s not big, but it’s the best on offer.

Friday 25 September shows the most promising window: 3ft from the NE, period 10 seconds, energy 184 (moderate). Winds are cross-off from the WNW at 9 mph. That longer period (10 seconds) means better shaped waves and more energy per set, though at a beach/bar break like Tairua Bar, longer-period swells can sometimes run a bit straight. Still, with offshore winds and a bit of size, this is the standout of the entire forecast. It’s still only 3ft, so it’s not a bomb, but compared to the rest, it’s the one to circle.

Water temp? No anomaly given, so expect it to be about average for the time of year in New Zealand.

To sum it up: there’s a long, flat gap from now until around 23 September, then a couple of days of small but clean, surfable waves, with Friday 25 September looking the pick. It’s not going to fire, but if you’re desperate for a paddle, that’s your window. Keep an eye on the forecasts – things can change.

Rusty.

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