Tairua Bar Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Tairua Bar for the next couple of weeks. The honest truth is, it’s a pretty grim run for the first ten days. We’re looking at a long stretch of weak, tiny swell and mostly onshore or cross winds that are just going to wreck any chance of a wave. It’s one of those periods where you’d be better off doing something else until the ocean sorts itself out.

Wednesday the 15th is a non-starter. We’ve got a tiny 1ft easterly swell with a weak combined energy of only 33, and it’s just a “poor surf” scenario. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there. That same tiny, weak theme runs right through Thursday the 16th (energy 34–46), and even into Friday the 17th, where the swell bumps up to a still-puny 2ft. The wind is cross-offshore on Friday morning, which is clean, but the wave energy is only 145—moderate at best—and the period is a very long 16 seconds. That long period at a beach/bar like Tairua Bar can make the waves break too straight, so it’s not the magic bullet it might be at a point break. It’s still a “surfable but very ordinary” situation.

The weekend is a washout. Saturday the 18th starts with a 1ft swell and 76 energy, then gets blown out by a 12 mph cross-offshore in the arvo. Sunday the 19th is cross-onshore and choppy with 1ft waves. The start of the following week, Monday 20th through Thursday 24th, is a total write-off. We’re looking at cross-onshore winds, tiny swell heights that barely register, and combined energy readings that mostly stay below 100. It’s a classic blank run for this area, and it sucks.

Now, the glimmer of hope. If you’ve got patience, the final weekend of the outlook starts to show some promise. Saturday the 25th has a 4ft NE swell in the morning, but the wind is light cross-shore and the energy is 195 (moderate). It’s still “poor surf conditions” though. The real standout is Sunday the 26th of July. The afternoon session is the pick of the entire 16 days. We’ve got a 4ft swell from the ENE, with a period of 10 seconds, and the combined energy is a solid 272 (moderate). The wind goes glassy, which is a massive positive. It’s not huge, but for Tairua Bar, that’s clean, surfable, and the best chance you’ll get. The break is fairly consistent, but crowds can be around sometimes, so don’t expect to have it to yourself.

Tuesday the 28th of July afternoon also looks interesting. A 5ft N swell, but with a short period of 6 seconds, and the energy is 287. The wind is cross-offshore, so it’ll be clean, but that short period means the waves will be a bit crumbly and less powerful. It’s a more advanced wave at that size, over 5ft—not for beginners.

So, to wrap it up: the first ten days are a dud. The best window is the afternoon of Sunday the 26th, with glassy conditions and a fun little ENE swell. It’s not a pulsing groundswell, but it’s the only real highlight. Keep an eye on the forecasts, but for now, that’s the call.

Rusty.

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