Tairua Bar Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Alright, let’s cut through it. The next couple of weeks at Tairua Bar are a real mixed bag—a lot of flat spells and ordinary conditions, but there’s one proper standout towards the end that’s worth marking on the calendar. For now, the first week is pretty grim with very little rideable surf, so you’ll be waiting a while.

We start off Wednesday the 5th with nothing doing—tiny 0.7ft ENE swell and a weak 28 combined energy, cross-off wind, just poor. That theme carries through Friday the 7th; you’ll see a glassy 0.3ft NE swell on Friday afternoon with a 16-second period, but the energy is only 17, so it’s barely a ripple. Saturday the 8th is similar—tiny, clean, but no power.

Then Sunday the 9th gets a bit of juice with a 4ft N swell in the afternoon, combined energy hits 149—moderate—but the wind is a cross-off at 15 mph and there’s light rain. Still only rated poor. Monday the 10th sees a 5ft N swell with 260 energy, but the conditions are “surfable but very ordinary.” The wind is light cross-off, so it’s not total junk, but it’s not a standout.

The real action fires up on Friday the 14th of August. That morning you’ve got a 10ft NE swell, period 8 seconds, combined energy of 1238—strong—and the wind is a clean cross-off from the SSW at 12 mph. But by the afternoon, it gets serious: 15ft NE swell, 10-second period, energy skyrockets to 3484, wind is cross from the south at 16 mph. The catch? This is advanced territory—over 8ft is expert-only, and this is way bigger. The swell direction from the NE matches the optimum direction for Tairua Bar, and the energy is massive, but it’s predicted to be too big for this break. Saturday the 15th is even heftier—13ft to 15ft, NE groundswell with an 11-second period, energy up to 7582 in the afternoon. Again, expert-only if you’re a nutter, but the wind is clean cross-off from the SW. This is not for the faint-hearted.

The best bet for most surfers comes on Sunday the 16th of August. The morning offers a 7ft NE swell, 10-second period, combined energy of 1113—strong—and the wind is a light cross-off from the SW at 6 mph. The water temp is 59°F, which is just about average for this time of year—no anomaly to speak of. This is the standout: solid, clean, and powerful. The swell direction is NE, which is the optimum for Tairua Bar, and the wind keeps it glassy. It’s still a bit big for beginners (over 5ft), but it’s a good size for experienced surfers. Crowds are sometimes an issue here, so be ready for company.

Monday the 17th afternoon turns glassy with a 5ft NE swell, 10-second period, and 377 energy—good conditions. Tuesday the 18th morning is glassy again with a 4ft NE swell from the SW wind, 314 energy, and “expect good surf conditions.” That’s a solid follow-up. After that, the swell drops off through the 19th and 20th, with Thursday the 20th getting messy from an ESE cross-on wind.

So, to wrap it: the week starts flat, then a huge swell event around the 14th and 15th is for experts only. The real window for quality, clean surf is from Sunday the 16th through Tuesday the 18th—that’s your call. Keep an eye on it, but near-term, there’s not much to get excited about until then.

Rusty.

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