Tairua Bar Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a good, honest look at what’s coming up for Tairua Bar over the next couple of weeks.

First off, I’ve got to be straight with you – the next 16 days look pretty grim. There is no real swell to speak of. We’ve got tiny, weak waves the whole way through, with the combined swell energy barely getting out of the double digits (generally between 4 and 120). For a spot like Tairua Bar, which is fairly exposed to the NE, it’s a real bummer. The water temp is sitting at 59°, which is about normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Looking at Friday the 11th, we’ve got a tiny 1ft NE swell with a long period of 13 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy, but there’s just no size. The combined energy is only 76, so it’s weak. It’s surfable in a “standing on the beach wishing there was more” kind of way, but the conditions are just ordinary. Not worth rushing for.

Saturday the 12th and Sunday the 13th are even worse. The swell stays at that tiny 1.0ft to 1ft, and while the wind is offshore or cross-off at times, it’s blowing a fresh breeze (15 to 19 mph). That’ll make the surface choppy and nasty for the amount of wave we’ve got. The scores are zero across the board; I’d save the fuel.

We roll into the middle of next week – Monday the 14th through Wednesday the 16th – and it’s the same story: 0.7ft to 1ft of NE swell, period around 12 to 13 seconds, but it’s all marked as “poor surf conditions.” A few windows of light offshore wind on the 16th might make the water look pretty, but there’s nothing to push you down the line.

Thursday the 17th sees a bit of a jump in swell height to 3ft, but it’s from the N with a short period of just 6 seconds. That’s sloppy, wind-affected chop. Combined energy hits 95, so there’s a little bit more water moving, but it’s still not worth a paddle. The wind is cross-off from the NNW, but that short period kills it for a sandbar like Tairua Bar.

Friday the 18th is similar: 3ft from the NNE, still a pathetic 6 to 7 second period. The combined energy for Saturday the 19th morning actually ticks up to 120 (moderate energy), but at 3ft and an 8-second period, it’s just not going to wrap in nicely. The wind on Saturday afternoon turns offshore from the W at 16 mph, which would make it clean if there were any power, but there isn’t.

From Sunday the 20th onwards, it’s a slow decline back into tiny dribble. The 21st and 22nd offer a tease of light offshore winds and 1ft to 2ft waves, but it’s all still rated “poor surf conditions.” The wave energy drops back into the 30s and 40s. By the 24th, we’ve got onshore winds and rain, with the combined energy down to single digits.

So, what’s the best on offer? Honestly, there isn’t a stand-out session. The only time the combined swell energy hits a three-digit number is on Saturday the 19th morning (120), with a 3ft NNE swell and an 8-second period. The wind that morning is a moderate cross-off from the WSW, so it’s not totally blown out. But it’s still small and weak. If you’re desperate for a paddle, that’s your best window, but keep your expectations low.

Given the lack of size and strength, and the fact that Tairua Bar is a sandbar setup, this stretch is more interesting for the kite surfers if they can get a gust. For us paddlers, it’s a long blank run. It won’t stay poor forever, but right now, it’s a waiting game.

- Rusty

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