Tairua Bar Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll level with you – the next week and a half is a bit of a grind for Tairua Bar. The swell energy is weak, mostly under 100 (14) for the first few days, and the wind is all over the place. We’ve got a solid run of “poor surf conditions” and “surfable but very ordinary” from now through to the end of July. The water temp is sitting at 60°F with a 0.4°F anomaly, so pretty average for this time of year – nothing to wet your wetsuit about.

Wednesday the 22nd is a total write-off with 0.7ft of weak east swell, even though the wind is light offshore at 3 mph. Thursday the 23rd gives us a glassy morning with 1.0ft, but the period is a short 5 seconds – not enough push to do anything with. Friday the 24th the swell bumps up to 2ft with a 7-second period, but that north-northwest wind gets up to 16 mph in the arvo, making it messy. Saturday the 25th is the first real flicker of life: the morning shows 3ft from the east with a 12-second period and a solid 19 mph offshore from the west-southwest. The combined energy reads 302 (moderate), and it’s clean, but the swell height is still tiny – barely a waist-high wave for the advanced crew. Sunday the 26th and Monday the 27th see a bit more energy (up to 177), but the wind swings cross-on and cross-off, and conditions stay ordinary.

The rest of the first week and into early August stays flat, with 0.7ft to 1ft and weak energy (mostly under 100). The longest gap of no real recommendations is from the 22nd to the 4th of August – about two weeks of mostly nothing worth paddling for.

Then, finally, a standout on Wednesday the 5th of August. The morning serves up 6ft from the north with a short 6-second period and glassy conditions – the wind is a light 3 mph from the south-southeast, dead calm. The combined energy jumps to 311 (moderate). That’s a solid size for Tairua Bar, and with glassy water, it’ll be clean. But here’s the thing: the period is short, so it’s a windswell, not a groundswell. It’s likely to be a bit fat and lacking power, and at 6ft, it’s getting into the territory where it’s too big for beginners. The afternoon pushes 8ft from the north with an 8-second period and a combined energy of 730 (strong). That’s big, but only for experts – the period is still short, so expect it to be lumpy and hard to handle. The wind turns light cross-on from the north-northeast, which will mess up the face. This is the best on offer, but it’s a short, punchy windswell.

Thursday the 6th of August holds some leftovers: 5ft from the north-northeast with a 9-second period in the morning, glassy, and 356 energy (moderate). That’s a bit more refined, but still short-period. The afternoon drops to 5ft with a cross-shore breeze. It’s surfable, but not a standout.

So, if you’re an expert, circle Wednesday the 5th for the morning glass, but don’t expect perfection. The rest of the window is a bust. This is a spot that’s “fairly consistent” but the 16-day window is a poor run – it tends not to stay this flat for long, and forecasts can change. For now, it’s a waiting game. Rusty.

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