Tairua Bar Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve got the outlook for Tairua Bar. Fair warning right off the bat – it’s gonna be a long, quiet slog before we see anything worth paddling out for.

The first week and a half is basically a write-off. From Monday the 14th all the way through to Saturday the 26th, we’ve got tiny, weak swell with almost no energy behind it (combined energy values mostly under 50, often in the single digits). Winds are all over the place, but mostly cross-off or offshore, which would be nice if there was any wave to surf. The water temp is sitting at 60°, which is bang on average for this time of year – nothing unusual there. But honestly, it’s a frustrating stretch of flat, poor surf conditions day after day. Not a single recommendation in that whole block.

We finally get a little glimmer on Sunday the 27th. Morning looks the better half of that day: glassy conditions with light southeast winds, and a small 3ft NNW swell pushing in with a short period of 8 seconds. The combined energy hits 100 – that’s the first time we’ve seen any moderate wave energy in the forecast. It’s surfable, but the conditions are described as “very ordinary.” Still, after nearly two weeks of nothing, that’s the best we’ve got. The afternoon turns cross-off and the energy drops again, so your window is narrow.

Into Monday the 28th, we get a morning of clean, gentle offshore winds from the west with a tiny 1ft NNW swell (28 energy) – nothing to write home about. Then Tuesday the 29th brings a bit more hope: a 3ft to 4ft north to north-northwest swell with periods around 6 to 7 seconds. Combined energy climbs to 135 then 155, so moderate wave energy is back. The Tuesday afternoon session looks cleaner with offshore winds from the west-southwest. The conditions are still “very ordinary,” but it’s the most promising window in the entire 16-day run. Just keep in mind the short period means it won’t have much grunt, and the beach/bar setup at Tairua Bar can be a bit lumpy with these short-period northerly swells.

The standout is that Sunday 27th morning: glassy, 3ft from the NNW, and the only real moment of peace and rideable surf in the whole outlook. After that, Tuesday the 29th afternoon is the next best – 4ft from the NNW with offshore wind, but the energy is moderate and the period short.

Bottom line: it’s a lean, long wait. The first proper surfable waves don’t show up until Sunday the 27th, and even then it’s nothing special. If you’re desperate, that Sunday morning glass-off is your best bet.

Rusty.

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