Tairua Bar Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about Tairua Bar.

The next couple of weeks are a real mixed bag, and honestly, for the most part, it’s pretty grim. We’ve got a long, drawn-out run of tiny, weak swells and strong winds that just aren’t gonna give us anything worth paddling out for. It’s a real drought setting in from this weekend right through the first week of September. The only real pulse of energy that looks promising is way down the track, but we’ll get to that.

Looking at this coming weekend, Saturday the 29th is the only time in the immediate forecast that’s even surfable. You’ve got a 4ft swell coming from the north, with a short period of 6 to 7 seconds. The combined energy is weak to moderate (135 to 169). Saturday morning has a cross-offshore wind, but it’s messy with light rain. The afternoon, though, is the standout for the near-term – glassy conditions with a light NE breeze. That’s a rare treat. The wave comment says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions,” which is about right. It’s not a classic day, but if you’re desperate, that Saturday arvo glass-off is your best bet in the first week. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing weird to report.

Then from Sunday the 30th all the way through to Monday the 8th of September, it’s a wasteland. Swell drops to 2ft and then 1ft, with combined energy falling to double-digit weak levels (down to just 8). Winds are howling from the WSW at 15-22 mph for the first few days, making for poor conditions. We get a brief window of offshore wind mid-week, but the swell is just too small to do anything with. That’s a solid nine days with nothing to offer.

Now, hold onto your board. The real event, and the only true standout in this whole outlook, pops up on Wednesday the 9th of September. A solid NNW swell builds to 8ft with an 8-second period. The combined energy jumps to 684 – that’s strong wave energy. This is a proper pulse. However, there’s a major caveat. The wind is light cross-onshore from the NE, and we’ve got light rain. The wave comment calls it “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” At 8ft, this is heading into expert territory, too big for beginners. The short period (8 seconds) means it won’t have the same grunt as a groundswell, but there’s plenty of energy. Because the swell direction is north and the optimum for Tairua Bar is NE, it’s not a perfect match, but it’s close. The crowds here are “sometimes,” so you might have a few others out if it cleans up. This is the one to watch, but the onshore wind and rain could easily mess it up. It’s a promising but uncertain long-range call.

After that pulse, the swell drops back down again for the rest of the period, with small waves and fresh winds returning. The following week has some long-period (12-second) groundswell, but it’s tiny at 1ft, so it’s not going to do anything.

So, to wrap it up: this Saturday afternoon (29th) is your only chance for a clean, glassy surf in the near term, even if it’s small. The real highlight is the swell on Wednesday the 9th of September, but the conditions are a gamble. Everything else is a write-off.

Stay patient, and keep an eye on that 9th.
- Rusty

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