Tairua Bar Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you—this 16-day run for Tairua Bar is a real mixed bag, and there’s a fair chunk of waiting involved. The water’s sitting at a pretty average 60°F for this time of year, nothing unusual there, so grab the 4/3 and you’ll be right. The pattern starts off with some size, but the conditions are fighting us, and then there’s a long, quiet stretch before a late pulse of serious power arrives. Let’s walk through it.

We kick off on Monday, July 6th, with some swell in the water but the wind is a messy cross-off from the NNW, blowing 16 mph in the morning and dropping to 12 mph in the arvo. The swell’s sitting around 7 ft from the N (period of 7 seconds) and then 7 ft from the NNW (period of 9 seconds). The combined energy is moderate at 669 and 1249, so there’s push, but the wind makes it a tough, choppy prospect. Not the best to start.

Tuesday, July 7th, is a write-off. We’ve got 5 ft to 7 ft swell from the NNE with onshore cross-winds blowing 16 mph, rain and storms. It’s poor. Wednesday, July 8th, stays messy in the morning, but the afternoon shows a glimmer: the wind swings SW at 9 mph (cross-off), and while the swell drops to 5 ft from the ESE with a 10-second period, the energy is moderate (620). It’s clean, but really just a salvage session.

From Thursday, July 9th, through to Tuesday, July 15th, it goes quiet. The swell drops into the 1 ft to 4 ft range, mostly from the E, with periods around 9 to 11 seconds. The wind is all over the shop—cross, cross-on, onshore—and the combined energy falls under 330 and often below 100. There’s almost nothing worth paddling for. That’s about a full week of flat, poor conditions.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Thursday, July 16th, the ocean wakes up. We’ve got a big pulse of swell arriving: 10 ft from the NE in the morning (period 8 seconds), building to 12 ft from the ENE in the afternoon (period 9 seconds). The combined energy is strong to very strong at 1428 and 2104. The wind is offshore from the NNW at 12 mph dropping to 6 mph and even glassy conditions. This is serious size—10 ft to 12 ft—which is exclusively for experts. Tairua Bar is a beach/bar setup, and with that much power and a short period, it’ll be a heavy, fast-moving beast. The wind is clean, though, so the sets will be lined up. This is the standout of the run. If you’re an advanced local and you’ve got the nerve, this is the window.

Friday, July 17th, is a good follow-up. The swell drops to 6 ft from the ENE in the morning with a light SW offshore at 6 mph, clean conditions. The combined energy is moderate at 520. In the afternoon, it drops to 4 ft and goes glassy with light E winds at 3 mph. This is a much more manageable size, good for intermediate and above, and the glassy conditions will make for smooth, fun waves.

After that, from Saturday, July 18th, through Tuesday, July 22nd, it fades out fast. Swell drops to 0.3 ft to 2 ft from the E and ENE, with onshore winds and rain. Combined energy plummets to below 83, and often into the single digits. The last few days are dead flat. So, the whole picture: one big, powerful window for experts on July 16th, a nice mellow follow-up on July 17th, and a lot of waiting in between. No buoys to check, just local knowledge.

Rusty.

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