Santa Rosa Creek Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let's be straight with you: the next 16 days at Santa Rosa Creek are a tough pill to swallow. To be honest, we’re looking at a long stretch of marginal to poor conditions. The first real chance to get wet doesn't really show itself until late in the game.

Right now, through the start of the window, the energy is there but the quality just isn't. We’re seeing a mix of small surf, mostly around 2.3ft to 3ft from the SSW, but the wind is just all wrong. It’s either cross, cross-on, or directly onshore, which is just going to make everything fat and bumpy. The water temp is sitting at 60.6°F, which is just a tick cooler than average for this time of year but nothing crazy. The combined swell energy is weak for the most part, reading around 389-429 (moderate energy). It's a frustrating start.

Sunday afternoon the 9th kicks off with some 3ft SSW groundswell and a 15-second period. That’s good for shape in theory, but the wind is onshore from the WSW. It's not a goer.

The following week, from Monday the 10th through to Saturday the 15th, it's more of the same – small swells between 1.3ft and 3.6ft, mostly from the SSW. The swell energy does pick up a bit by the afternoon of the 15th, hitting 844 (moderate wave energy), with 3.6ft SSW swell at 16 seconds. It’s still a tough call though because the winds are mostly onshore or cross-onshore, although they’re light. Still, the ride-able surf is there, but it’s going to be a battle.

Now, the one potential standout in this whole forecast is difficult to call, but it lands on Saturday the 22nd morning. We finally get a little rhythm: 3.6ft of WNW swell, but the period drops right off to only 8 seconds. That’s short period wind swell, so it’s not going to have the punch of groundswell. But the key detail here is the wind is light and onshore from the West. On its own, it's not great, but in a stretch this poor, it’s the closest we get to something clean. Later that same day the wind stays light, but the swell drops to a tiny 1.3ft with a long 21-second period.

The last few days – from the 17th onward – get ugly. Winds pick up from the NW and WNW, hitting 12 to 19 mph, and the surf is labelled as “poor surf conditions.” By the time we hit the 19th and 20th, it’s just a big no-go. The swell is still hanging around, but the wind and chop make it a kite-surfing playground rather than a paddle session.

So here’s the bottom line: Santa Rosa Creek is not offering much for the next 16 days. There are no standouts that will get the heart racing. If you really need a paddle, the morning of Saturday the 22nd is the most promising, but keep expectations very low. The rest of the time, you’re better off waiting for a better forecast.

Read more