Rancho Santini Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this stretch of the forecast is a rough one for the paddle crew. The only break in the game is Rancho Santini, a beginner-friendly, consistent spot, but the conditions are just not playing ball. The whole 16-day run is one long, grim gap of poor surf quality and so-so recommendations. We’re looking at a run of days where the score is mostly zeroes, and the few moments that are even marginal are still a tough sell.

Let’s start with the first bit of action, which is really just a flicker. Friday morning, August 28th, we have a small 2 ft swell out of the SW with a very long period of 16 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell, which means energy, but the combined energy is weak (393). The wind is cross-on from the WSW at 6 mph, and the water temp is 70°, which is about normal for this time of year. The surf is marginal at best – it’s there, but the conditions are questionable. The wind is light, but it’s onshore, so it’s small and a bit bumpy. This is really only for the beginner crew who just want to get wet, and even then, it’s not going to be pretty.

After that, the outlook turns bleak. From Friday afternoon, August 28th, all the way through to Saturday, September 12th, it’s a total write-off. The swell builds a bit – we see 4 ft to 4 ft from the SW and SSW in the first week, with combined energy climbing into the moderate range (662 to 826), but it’s all for nothing. The wind is a constant cross-on or onshore from the WNW or NW, blowing at 9 to 19 mph. The surf is described as poor, choppy, and lumpy. There’s a few mornings where the wind is offshore, but the surf is still “poor” or “marginal” – the tide or the swell shape just isn’t lining up. The period drops to 10-14 seconds in the second week, but the wind and chop ruin any chance of a clean wave.

Now, there is one moment that stands out, and I mean *barely*. On Friday morning, September 4th, we have a 3 ft SW swell with a 17-second period. That’s a long period groundswell, and the combined energy jumps to 936 (moderate-high). The wind is offshore from the WNW at 9 mph. It’s the only time in the whole run where the wind is clean and the swell has some serious weight. But the surf is still called “marginal” – the tide or the break’s character might be fighting it. If you’re dead set on getting a wave, this is your best bet, but it’s a gamble. The long period could make it wall up at Rancho Santini, which is a consistent spot, but it’s not a reef or point, so it might be a bit fast and straight. Still, for a surfer who knows the bank, there could be a sneaky clean one.

The rest of the period is a blank. Saturday morning, September 5th, through to Saturday, September 12th, it’s all poor conditions. The swell size stays around 3 ft to 4 ft, but the wind is consistently cross-on, and the energy is weak to moderate. There’s no standout, no hidden gem. Honestly, if you’re looking at this and you’re a paddle surfer, I’d say save your energy. The kite crew might find some fun in the choppy cross-on wind, but for a regular surfer, this is a tough slog.

The forecast is a bit more reliable in the first week, but the whole thing is a long, dry spell. It’s one of those runs where the area just doesn’t have the right setup. Keep an eye on the charts – it tends not to stay this poor for long, and forecasts can change, but right now, there’s nothing to get excited about.

Rusty.

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