Rancho Santini Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here again. Let’s break it down in feet and knots.

We’re looking at a long stretch with only a couple of real moments worth paddling out. The swell is coming from the southwest, but the energy is mostly just enough to keep you interested, not buzzing. The water’s sitting at 21°, a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

The first real session is this Saturday morning, the 18th of July, at Rancho Santini. Swell is a small 3ft from the southwest, with a very long period of 18 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy, and the combined moderate wave energy (563) is a nice start. The wind is light offshore, 6 mph from the west, so it’ll be clean. But it’s a marginal call, so don’t expect perfection. It’s a consistent, beginner-friendly spot, and with that offshore breeze, it’ll be a fun little wave. Crowds are sometimes a thing here.

Sunday the 19th looks similar, with the swell staying around 3ft to 3ft, still that long period. The combined energy builds to a strong 884 on Sunday morning, hitting very strong 1013 by the afternoon. The wind holds offshore from the west-northwest at 9 mph. The best of the bunch is likely the Sunday afternoon session if you can time it right.

Now, the stand-out in the whole forecast: Monday the 27th of July. The swell jumps to 4ft from the southwest, with a period of 18 seconds, and the combined energy is a very strong 1423. The wind is offshore from the west at 9 mph. That’s the best combo of size, clean conditions, and raw energy in the whole run. Rancho Santini is exposed to this swell, and the optimum direction is west, so this is the one to circle. If you can only paddle out once, make it Monday morning, the 27th. The afternoon on the 27th is still good with 4ft and 16-second period, but the morning is the highlight.

The week leading up to that is a lot of so-so conditions. Most days have cross-onshore wind or just not enough energy to get excited about. The 24th of July has a 2ft swell with a 24-second period (very long period) and light wind, but the energy is moderate (923) and it’s just not enough size.

The 28th of July, Tuesday, has 4ft swell with cross-shore wind, so it’s not as clean. The 30th and 31st show some size, with 7ft on the 31st, but that’s getting into expert territory, and the wind is onshore or cross-onshore, so it’s going to be a bit of a mess. The first of August has 7ft swell but with a moderate breeze and choppy conditions.

After the 31st, the swell drops off quickly. By the 2nd of August, it’s down to 4ft with a short period of 9 seconds, and the energy is weak (327). That’s a real drop-off.

So, to wrap it up: the best window is the 27th of July, Monday morning. The 18th and 19th are good for a beginner session, but the real standout is that Monday. The rest of the two weeks is filled with marginal or poor conditions.

Rusty.

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