Rancho Santini Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a 16-day window on the cards for Rancho Santini, and I’ll be honest with you – it’s a bit of a slow burn. The first week or so is pretty lackluster, with only marginal conditions on offer. The real standout, the one that’s got me a little excited, lands right at the end of July.

The Overall Pattern

We’re looking at a long stretch of just okay-to-poor waves. The swell is mostly coming from the SW, but it’s short-period, wind-affected stuff for the first 6 days, with combined energy bouncing around in the moderate range – think 600 to 900 (moderate wave energy). The wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, keeping things messy. There’s a real gap in quality from the start until late July.

Thursday 23rd July & Friday 24th July

The opening days are a write-off, honestly. Thursday morning has a 4ft SSW swell, but the wind is onshore and the forecast is calling it marginal. The afternoon is worse with a choppy 5ft WNW windswell. Friday morning sees a tiny 2ft SSW groundswell with a very long 24-second period, but again, it’s onshore wind and the combined energy is moderate (1031). The waves will be there but the wind will ruin it.

Saturday 25th July to Wednesday 29th July

This whole stretch is a bit of a slog. Swell heights bounce between 3ft and 5ft, mostly from the SW, but the wind is stubbornly onshore or cross-onshore. The combined energy stays in the moderate range (700 to 1100). The waves will be weak and bumpy. Not worth paddling out for.

The Standout: Thursday 30th July

Alright, here’s the one. Thursday 30th July is the day to circle on the calendar. The morning is looking *glassy* – wind is a whisper from the west at just 3 mph. The swell is a clean 3ft from the SSW with a 15-second period, carrying moderate energy (515). The afternoon is the same story: glassy conditions with the wind shifting slightly to the SSE. This is about as clean as it gets for Rancho Santini. The water temperature is 72°, which is 5° warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s notably warm, so you might not need a full wetsuit. This is your best bet for a fun, clean session.

Friday 31st July & Saturday 1st August

The following couple of days see a jump in size but a drop in quality. Friday afternoon has a 6ft S swell, but it’s cross-onshore and choppy. Saturday morning bumps up to 7ft from the S, but again, it’s cross-onshore and the period drops to 13 seconds. This is getting into the “too big for beginners” territory and the wind is a problem. If you’re an expert, you might find something, but it won’t be pretty.

The Second Week (Sunday 2nd August onwards)

The second week fades fast. Sunday 2nd August drops to 4ft from the SSW, and by Monday 3rd August we’re down to a tiny 2ft SW swell. The wind is cross-shore or cross-onshore, and the combined energy drops to weak levels (180 to 240). For the rest of the week, from 4th August to 7th August, it’s flat and poor. Waves are 1ft to 2ft, with weak energy and choppy winds. It’s a proper blank run for the area.

So, to sum it up: the first 7 days are mostly a bust, with a single, beautiful glassy morning on Thursday 30th July being the only true highlight. After that, it drops off a cliff. The long-range promise of that Thursday is worth holding out for, but it’s a long wait.

Rusty.

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