Rancho Santini Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming our way.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the next week and a half is gonna be a real test of patience. The surf is there, but the conditions are just not cooperating. Most of the time, the wind is on it or cross-onshore, messing up what would otherwise be a decent-looking swell. It’s a frustrating run of "poor surf conditions" for the most part.

We’re starting off on Monday, July 20th, at Rancho Santini. The swell is a clean 3 ft from the SW, and get this – it’s a long-period groundswell at 16 seconds, packing a moderate energy (712). But the wind is on it, coming straight from the west at 9 mph, so it’s blowing the top off. The water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing wild there. Honestly, it’s a marginal call at best, and the score reflects that. Monday afternoon gets worse, with a cross-on wind making it choppy.

Tuesday and Wednesday, July 21st and 22nd, are much the same story. The swell hangs around 3 ft to 4 ft, still that SW groundswell, but the wind stays stubbornly cross-onshore or on it. The energy starts to drop a bit as the period shortens. The surf is just ragged.

Then Thursday, July 23rd, the swell bumps up to 5 ft in the morning, with strong energy (965). But it’s still a no-go. The wind is on it at 12 mph, ruining any chance of a clean wave. This is a recurring theme.

The pattern continues through the end of July and into the first week of August. Friday, July 31st, sees the swell push 5 ft to 5 ft, but again, the wind is cross-onshore and choppy. By the time we hit August 2nd and 3rd, the swell drops right off to 2 ft to 2 ft, and the energy is low (down to 204). It’s a true flat spell.

Now, if you’re looking for a glimmer of hope, you have to squint hard at the very end of the run. There’s a tiny window on the morning of Saturday, July 25th, and into Sunday, July 26th. The swell drops to 3 ft, but the period jumps to a very long 21 seconds, which is a proper groundswell. The energy is still moderate (923). The wind is light and offshore from the WSW at 6 mph. That’s the best wind we’ll see for a clean wave. It’s a marginal call, but for a patient surfer, those 3 ft sets with that long period and offshore wind could be the only real moment of quality in the whole 16 days. It’s a standout, but a very small one. After that, we’re back to the wind and chop.

Bottom line: This is a tough outlook. The swell is there, but the wind is a constant enemy. The 25th and 26th of July morning sessions are your best bet, and even that feels like a gamble. The rest of the period is a write-off for decent surf. The waves are small and messy, and the occasional bigger pulses are blown out. For a spot like Rancho Santini, which is consistent, this blank run is a bit of a surprise, but it happens. The forecasts can change, but right now, I’d find something else to do.

Rusty.

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