Rancho Santini Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty.

Look, I’ve got to be straight with you. The outlook for Rancho Santini over the next 16 days is a tough one. There’s wave energy around, but the conditions are fighting it every step of the way. We’re looking at a long stretch of poor surf quality, with only a few fleeting moments that might be worth a paddle.

We start off on Thursday, August 13th, with some swell. There’s a groundswell from the SW running 3 ft with a very long 16-second period. The energy is moderate, reading 381. But the wind is onshore from the WSW at 6 mph, and the forecast is calling it “marginal surf” at best. It’s a beginner-friendly spot, so it’s not going to be heavy, but the onshore wind will make it bumpy.

Friday morning, August 14th, is a bit of a tease. The swell drops to 2 ft but the period stretches to 18 seconds. Combined energy is still decent at 572. The wind is light and onshore from the W at 6 mph, which is still not clean. It’s another “marginal” call. That’s as good as it gets for the first week, and it’s not saying much.

From Friday afternoon all the way through to Tuesday, August 25th, it’s a brutal stretch. You’ve got a mix of SW groundswell, from 2 ft to 4 ft, with periods mostly between 14 and 18 seconds. The energy levels bounce around the 200s to 600s. But the wind is a killer. Day after day it’s cross-onshore or stronger onshore winds, mostly from the NW or WNW, blowing 9 to 12 mph. The forecasts just say “poor surf conditions” over and over with zero scores. The water temperature here is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there, but the wind is the surprise you don’t want.

There’s a tiny glimmer on Wednesday morning, August 19th. The swell pops back up to 3 ft from the SW with a 16-second period and moderate energy (516). The wind is light cross-onshore from the SW at 6 mph. It’s still “marginal,” but it’s the best window we get. Still, “marginal” means you’ll be fighting the texture on the face.

The real story here is the long gap. From August 14th afternoon right through to August 25th, there is nothing on offer. That’s over a week of poor conditions. Given that Rancho Santini is a consistent beginner break that’s exposed to the SW, this is a classic case of the wind shutting it down completely. The long-period SW swell is there, but it’s too straight for this exposed beach setup with that wind, which might actually make it more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer.

The last few days, from August 26th onward, we see a few more “marginal” calls with 2-2 ft SW swell and light onshore winds, but nothing to get excited about. The energy is low, around the 300s and 400s.

So here’s the call: The only possible standouts are the Thursday morning, August 13th, and the Wednesday morning, August 19th. If you’re desperate, those have the biggest swell and best chance of a clean-ish wave, but don’t expect perfection. For the rest of the 16 days, I’d save the wax.

Rusty.

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