Rancho Santini Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it for Rancho Santini.

Right off the bat, we’re looking at a pretty flat start. The first few days of the forecast period are nothing to write home about. The swell is just too weak and the conditions are messy. We’ll see a bit of activity on Wednesday, July 29th, with a 4ft SSW groundswell rolling in, but the wave comment is calling it marginal. The wind is onshore at 6 mph, so it’s gonna be a bit bumpy. The combined swell energy is moderate at best (1129). Honestly, this is a case of "good news, bad news." The good news is the swell is long-period (16 seconds), which usually means better shape, but it’s also a groundswell coming straight from the SSW, which is the optimum direction for this break. The bad news is the onshore wind and the "marginal" tag. It’s a beginner-friendly spot, so if you’re learning, you might get a few short, weak rides. Don't expect much.

The situation goes downhill from there. Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st see the swell dropping to 4ft-5ft, with the period shortening. The combined energy drops to 904 and then 736, which is still moderate but weakening. The wind stays onshore, and the surf is marked as marginal or poor. Crowds are "sometimes" here, and with these conditions, the place should be quiet.

Then we hit a long, dry spell. From Saturday, August 1st, all the way through to Wednesday, August 13th, there’s nothing but poor or marginal surf with tiny waves. The numbers say it all – swell heights are 1ft to 3ft, with combined energy barely hitting 500. The wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and the water is about average for the time of year. The only thing that changes is the swell direction, which stays SSW or SW, which is good for this break, but the size and wind kill it. This is a proper lull, and for a spot like this, it's actually pretty normal. It’s not a place that pumps consistently.

The only real glimmer of hope comes late in the second week. On Monday, August 10th, we get a pulse of 2ft swell from the SW with a very long period of 20 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 456. It’s still marginal, but that long-period swell from the optimum direction is a tease. A couple of days later, on Wednesday, August 12th afternoon, we see a 3ft swell with a 16-second period and combined energy of 519. It’s still marginal, but it’s the best of a bad bunch. The wind is light onshore, so it could be glassy.

If you have to pick a moment, the very best of a bad run is the Wednesday morning, July 29th. That's the only day with a swell over 3ft and a decent period. The rest of the forecast is a washout. For the intermediate and advanced crew, there’s no point coming. For a beginner, it’s a chance to get wet on tiny, cleanish waves. But honestly, don’t hold your breath. This is a long, quiet period for Rancho Santini.

Rusty.

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