Osbourne Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – the next couple of weeks at Osbourne are a real mixed bag, and you’ll have to be patient. The only window that’s got any real fire in it is way out at the end of the forecast. For most of the run, the swell is small and pretty average, with a lot of ordinary conditions. But there’s a light at the end of the tunnel.

For the first week, from Wednesday the 5th through to about Sunday the 11th, it’s pretty grim. You’ve got a tiny, short-period swell – mostly around 1ft to 3ft from the SSW, with period hanging around 6 to 8 seconds. The combined energy is weak, bouncing between 23 and 92 (moderate wave energy only on a couple of afternoons, but still weak). Winds are mostly cross or cross-on, and the water temp is sitting at 17° with a normal anomaly of 0.4°, so about average for this time of year. Honestly, it’s not worth paddling out – the 5th, 6th, and 7th are all “poor surf conditions” or “very ordinary.” There’s a brief moment on the morning of the 7th with glassy conditions, but the swell is only 2ft – it’s not going to do anything.

From Monday the 12th to Sunday the 18th, things start to slowly lift, but it’s still not exciting. The swell stays small, around 2ft to 5ft, with periods of 7 to 9 seconds. The energy is still weak, mostly under 100, with a couple of days like the 14th and 15th showing a slight bump to 112 and 129 (moderate wave energy). The 12th morning is glassy with 3ft, and the 15th morning has clean conditions with a 3ft SSW swell, but it’s all pretty ordinary. The 17th morning has a glassy 5ft, but it’s a short-period 5-second swell, which is just sloppy. Not a standout.

Now, hold onto your board – the real action kicks off on Tuesday the 18th afternoon. The swell picks up properly, with a 5ft SSW swell at 9 seconds, and the energy jumps to 487 (strong wave energy). The wind goes offshore from the NNW, so it’s gonna be clean and fun. This is a point break, so that long-period groundswell is going to wrap in nicely. Wednesday the 19th is the best of the lot: morning has 5ft SSW swell at 9 seconds, clean cross-off wind, and energy at 460 (strong). The afternoon is even better – 6ft SSW swell, 9-second period, clean cross-off wind, and energy at 501 (strong wave energy). That’s the standout. The swell direction is from the SSW, which matches the optimum direction for Osbourne (ESE being the optimum, but the SSW is solid). It’s a fairly consistent point break, so expect a good rhythm. Crowds are possible, as it’s “sometimes” busy, but with waves this good, it’s worth sharing.

The morning of the 20th still has a 4ft SSW swell, but the wind goes cross, and the energy drops to 265 (moderate wave energy). It’s still surfable, but the magic is gone. After that, the afternoon gets choppy.

So, the only true standout is the afternoon of the 19th – that’s your best bet. The 18th afternoon and the 19th morning are also good, but the 19th afternoon is the one. Everything else is a write-off. If you’re a beginner, the swell gets over 5ft on the 18th and 19th, so it might be a bit much – stick to the smaller days if you’re learning. For everyone else, aim for that Wednesday the 19th.

Rusty.

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