Mitchell's Cove Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright crew, Rusty here. Let's be real about this one – it's a tough stretch for Mitchell's Cove. We're looking at a long, quiet run with nothing that really gets the heart pumping. The forecast shows weak, short-period swell for the entire 16-day window, and the wind is almost always putting a bit of a crinkle on the face. The water temp is sitting at 60° right now, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least you won't freeze while you're scratching for nothing.

Sunday the 26th starts us off flat and messy. We've got a tiny 3ft swell from the WNW with a short 6-second period and weak energy (58). On top of that, the WSW wind is cross-onshore, so it's all just little wind ripples. Monday and Tuesday are more of the same – small, weak, and cross-onshore. You'd be fighting an uphill battle.

Now, there is a little bump in energy on Wednesday the 29th. The swell pushes up to 6ft from the NW with an 8-second period, and the combined energy jumps into the moderate range (601). But the wind stays cross-onshore, and the model is calling it "marginal." That's the best word for it. It's not going to be clean, but it's the most size we see in the whole run. That NW direction is off the optimum for this reef and point break, so don't expect it to groom into perfection. It might be the pick of a very poor bunch though.

From there, it's a slow bleed. We get a few more mornings with 5ft to 6ft swell from the NW through the 30th and 31st, and into the first of August, but the WSW wind never lets up. It's consistently cross-onshore, which means chop. The energy stays moderate, peaking around 665 on the Saturday the 1st, but the wind ruins it. The period does stretch to 9 seconds by the 2nd, which is a little better, but the swell size starts to drop back.

After that, it's a long fade. From the 3rd of August onwards, the swell drops below 5ft, the period hangs around 9-10 seconds, and the wind stays unfriendly. The energy readings drop back into the low-to-mid hundreds, showing it's all pretty weak. There's nothing here that screams "get in the water." By the 10th of August, we're looking at 4ft swell with moderate energy (325), but it's the same old story – cross-onshore wind.

Honestly, the whole 16-day window is a write-off for paddle surfing. If you had to pick the least bad option, it'd be Wednesday the 29th in the morning for that little spike in size, but keep your expectations on the floor. The break is fairly consistent, so this blank run is a bit of a bummer, but it happens. The setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing through most of it.

Rusty.

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