Little Malibu (Rincon) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it – the outlook for Little Malibu (Rincon) over the next 16 days is a tough one. Honestly, there’s nothing that qualifies as a good surf option in this whole window. The swell is tiny, the periods are short, and the energy is weak. It’s a blank run, which is unusual for a spot that’s normally consistent, but sometimes the ocean just doesn’t cooperate.

From Friday 17 July onwards, the story is all about small, weak waves. Friday afternoon sees a 1 ft swell from the NNE with a 7-second period – combined energy a measly 12. The wind is cross-off from the NNE at 9 mph, so the surface is clean but the waves are barely a ripple. Saturday 18 July morning goes glassy with a 1 ft NE swell, 7 seconds, energy 14 – still not enough to get excited about. Saturday afternoon drops even further to 0.3 ft. Sunday 19 July morning has a glassy 2 ft NE swell, 6 seconds, energy 30 – still knee-high at best. The trend continues day after day: the biggest swell we see is 3 ft on Saturday 25 July morning (NE, 7 seconds, energy 55) and again on Saturday 1 August morning (NE, 6 seconds, energy 47). But these are still tiny, short-period waves – combined energy barely cracking 50–80, so it’s weak wave energy. The water temperature sits at 84° with a 1° anomaly, right around average for this time of year.

The wind does offer some clean windows – plenty of glassy mornings (like Thursday 23 July morning, Friday 24 July morning, Sunday 26 July morning, etc.) – but with such small swell, it’s just not surfable. The optimum swell direction for Little Malibu is NW, but every single forecast swell is from NE, NNE, or similar – completely off. The reef break needs a decent groundswell to work, and we’re not getting that. The longest period we see is 11 seconds on Tuesday 28 July afternoon (0.3 ft from NE, energy 5) – that’s a long-period groundswell but so tiny it’s irrelevant. No standouts, no highlights. It’s a flat spell, plain and simple.

If you’re a beginner, even the 3 ft days are too small to be fun, and for advanced surfers, there’s nothing to paddle onto. The reef itself is exposed to the north, but the swell direction is all wrong. Crowds are possible at Little Malibu (sometimes busy), but with no waves, it won’t matter. I’d say save your energy and wait for a proper NW swell. Forecasts can change, but right now, there’s no reason to get your hopes up.

Rusty.

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