Lincoln City Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Well, folks, it’s Rusty here, looking at the next stretch of waves for our neck of the woods. We’ve got a bit of a slow start, but there’s some promise on the horizon if you're patient.

Right off the bat, the first couple of days are pretty gutless. The Tuesday morning session on the 8th is a non-starter with a weak 2ft swell mixing with a cross breeze—just not worth getting the wetsuit on for. The energy is weak, at 171, and the water is sitting at 56°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll be feeling that chill more than usual if you do paddle out. It stays quiet through Wednesday and Thursday, with small, poor surf and light cross-shore winds chopping things up. Honestly, you're not missing much.

We finally see a little pulse of life on Friday morning, the 11th. Swell pushes up to 6ft from the NW, and the energy jumps into the moderate range (851). But the wind is cross-onshore, so it’s likely to be a bit lumpy. It’s a case of “maybe” rather than a definite go.

Then, here’s the little gem in the first week. Saturday the 12th, first light looks like the pick of the week. The wind goes completely glassy, dead calm, with a 4ft NW swell. That’s a far cry from the rest of the junky days. This is where you want to be. This is the standout before the bigger stuff arrives, and it could be proper clean. There’s still energy in the water (577), so keep an eye on that dawn patrol.

After that little window, it fades back into marginal surf. Sunday and Monday slip back to smaller, weaker swells under cross-onshore breezes. It’s a waiting game again.

Now, for the long-range promise, and I’ve got to flag it as promising but a little less certain since it’s over a week away. But starting around the 16th, we see the swell filling in more consistently in the 5ft to 6ft range. The window between the 16th and the 17th could offer some fun waves, but the winds are only light, so it's not a slam dunk. Keep it in the back of your mind.

The real standout, the one that’s got the potential to be proper, is shaping up for the 22nd. The models are pointing to a solid swell from the WNW, pushing up to 8ft on Tuesday morning and 10ft by the afternoon. The energy is very strong, hitting 2742 in the morning and 3511 in the afternoon. That’s a big jump. This is 8ft+ territory, so it’s expert-only stuff. This is where Lincoln City (a beach and reef setup) might actually be better for someone on a kite than a paddleboard, given the size and the cross-shore wind that’s forecast. It’s a heavy-duty system, two weeks out, so don’t book your flights yet, but it’s got my attention. The period is around 13-14 seconds, which is a solid groundswell, but it can be a bit straight at the beach breaks, so that's something to keep in mind.

The run-up to that, around the 21st, has a small, clean morning swell from the SW (2ft) with an offshore wind, which could be a fun little session before the big boy arrives.

So, to sum it up: the first week is mostly a bust with a few marginal days. The best bet in the near-term is Saturday the 12th, early, when it goes glassy. Otherwise, hold out for that 22nd, which looks like it could be a serious day, but we’ll know more as we get closer.

Rusty, out.

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