Le Petit Minou Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve got to be straight with you – this forecast for Le Petit Minou is a tough one. Over the next two and a half weeks, there’s barely a wave worth paddling for. The swell just doesn’t get its act together, and when it does show a pulse, the wind or conditions trash it. We’re looking at a long, quiet stretch from now through to early in the third week of July, with only a brief flicker of hope right at the end. Let’s walk through it.

We start on Friday the 10th of July with a tiny 3ft WNW swell, period a short 9 seconds, and a combined energy of just 137 – that’s weak. Wind’s a cross-off at 16 mph from the north, but the surf’s poor, no recommendation. Saturday the 11th morning is the only half-decent moment early on: 3ft WNW swell, 10-second period, combined energy 140, offshore wind at 16 mph from the ENE. The water temp is 67°, which is 5° warmer than normal – that’s much warmer than usual for this time of year, noticeable. But even then, the conditions are ‘ordinary’ and the score is low. After that, it’s all downhill: tiny 1ft to 2ft swells, short periods, and mostly offshore or cross-off winds that keep things clean but just don’t have any push. The waves are too small and weak to bother with. From Sunday the 12th through to Tuesday the 21st of July, it’s a blank run of poor surf, day after day. The swell stays below 2ft most of the time, combined energy often dropping to the 20s or 30s, which is barely a ripple.

Then, on Wednesday the 22nd of July morning, we finally see something: a 4ft WNW swell, but with a short 7-second period, and combined energy jumps to 207 – moderate energy. The wind is cross-off from the east at 12 mph, keeping it clean. But the conditions are described as ‘marginal’ and the score is a 1 out of 10, so don’t get excited. The swell direction is WNW, which isn’t even the optimum SW that Le Petit Minou likes. This is just a maybe for the committed, and it’s still two weeks away. After that, from Wednesday afternoon through to Saturday the 25th of July, the swell actually builds to 5ft–5ft from the WNW, with combined energy climbing into the 300s and 400s – that’s strong wave energy for this spot. The period improves to 8–10 seconds. But here’s the killer: the wind turns onshore or cross-onshore, from west or WSW, usually 12–13 mph, creating choppy, messy conditions. The waves might have some size but they’ll be bumpy and unruly. That’s not paddle-surfing quality; it looks more interesting for kite surfing than a clean paddle session. The only real standout in the whole 16 days is that Wednesday the 22nd morning – a brief window of clean, offshore winds on a moderate 4ft swell, but with a short period and a sub-optimum direction, it’s not a classic. Everything else is tiny, weak, or wind-trash.

So, overall, the surf here is flat or poor for nearly two weeks straight, then a couple of days with some height but terrible wind. If you’re desperate, keep an eye on the 22nd morning, but don’t hold your breath. Forecasts can change, and it’s been quiet – but this area tends to have these blank spells.

Rusty.

Read more