Le Moule Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what we’ve got for the next two and a bit weeks down at Le Moule. To be straight with you, this forecast is a tough one to swallow. We’ve got a solid run of consistent swell, but the wind and the conditions are just wrecking any chance of a decent wave.

The water temp is sitting at 83°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year – nothing to write home about.

Kicking off on Friday 17th July, we’ve got some east swell around 5ft, but the wind is pumping from the east at 19 mph, tearing across the face. It’s a fresh, lumpy cross-shore mess. That pattern sticks with us right through the weekend. Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th see the swell bumping up to 7ft and 6ft, but again, that east wind in the 16-19 mph range keeps things choppy. The combined energy is moderate to strong, hitting around 466 on Saturday morning, but it’s all wasted energy in these conditions.

Monday the 20th is more of the same, though the wind eases a bit to 12-16 mph. Swell drops to 5ft, then 4ft in the afternoon. Conditions are still cross-onshore and choppy. We get a small window on Tuesday morning the 21st – the wind goes cross-offshore from the southeast at 12 mph, and it’s clean. Problem is, the swell is tiny at 3ft with a short 7-second period. Just not enough push. That clean spell is gone by the afternoon.

The rest of that week into the end of July is a rinse and repeat story: moderate east to east-southeast winds, lumpy cross-shore chop, and poor surf conditions. Wednesday the 22nd is small at 3ft, then Thursday the 23rd and Friday the 24th see the swell kick back up to 5ft-6ft, but the wind stays fresh and onshore or cross-shore. There’s even a risk of thunderstorms on Friday morning.

Going into the second week, from Saturday the 25th of July through to the end of the month, we see more of the same pattern. Swell hangs around 5ft to 6ft with moderate to strong energy (over 400 in the morning of the 26th), but it’s all accompanied by that persistent east wind, keeping the surface lumpy and the waves ragged. Tuesday the 28th is a bit smaller and cleaner with lighter winds, but still just moderate cross-shore. Wednesday the 29th and Thursday the 30th bring the lump back with stronger winds.

The forecast wraps up on Saturday the 1st of August. Morning sees fresh cross-shore winds at 19 mph and a 6ft east-northeast swell – you guessed it, more lumpy conditions.

Honestly, there isn’t a single standout session in this whole outlook. It’s a classic case of plenty of water moving around, but the wind just won’t play ball. The combined energy figures are there – often in the 300s and 400s – but for a surfer, that means nothing if it’s blown out. With this much wind and a beach-and-reef setup, this stretch is looking a lot more interesting for the kite crew than for paddle surfing. Keep an eye on it, though – blank runs don’t usually last forever around here, and the forecasts can flip.

Rusty.

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