Le Moule Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. We’re staring down a long stretch of lumpy, cross-shore slop out of the northeast trade belt. The water’s sitting at a warm 84°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first few days right through to the 15th of August are a total write-off. The wind is coming in from the east at 12 to 22 mph, blowing cross or cross-onshore, and the conditions are just choppy and messy. Sure, there’s some swell building through the week, with wave energy ramping up from moderate (133) on the 10th to strong (781) by the 15th, but with the wind state being what it is, it’s all junk. The 16th of August actually sees a big jump in energy – we’re talking 1220 on Sunday morning and a massive 2781 on Sunday afternoon, with a long-period groundswell of 15 seconds hitting 10 ft. That’s a lot of juice, but the wind is still cross-onshore, and the period is so long (over 15 seconds) that it’s going to break straight and close out on the beach setup here. This one is looking more interesting for kite surfers than paddle surfers, honestly.

Now, it’s not until the 17th of August that things start to get a little bit interesting. Monday morning sees the wind ease back to a light breeze at 6 mph, and the swell drops to 7 ft from the ENE. The wave energy is still strong (918), and it’s a long-period 11-second swell. The wind is still cross-onshore, but it’s light, so you’ll get small wind ripples rather than full-on chop. It’s a marginal call, but it’s the best we’ve got so far. The afternoon cleans up a bit more with a gentle cross-shore breeze and the swell at 5 ft from the east, period 10 seconds, and energy dropping to 593. You could get a few lined-up ones if you’re patient and pick your tide.

The 18th of August Tuesday morning is actually the standout of the whole outlook. The wind shifts to a cross-offshore from the southeast at 16 mph, and the swell is 6 ft from the east with an 8-second period. The energy is moderate (436), but the cross-offshore wind will groom the faces clean. The break is exposed to the northeast swell, and the optimum direction is from the NE, so that 6 ft east swell is a little off-angle, but it’ll wrap in. The water temp is still that lovely 84°, and it’s a consistent break. Crowds are sometimes a thing here, so you might have a few others out. This is your window – Tuesday morning.

After that, from the 19th through the 25th, we’re back into moderate cross-shore breezes and building swell again, but the wind stays messy. The energy picks up through the 25th (522 on Tuesday afternoon), but the wind is cross-onshore again, and the swell is short period. It’s a long stretch of poor surf conditions, with a few days of moderate cross-shore chop. The 22nd and 23rd see the swell drop to 2 ft, and the energy is weak (163 and 137), making it small and weak. The 24th gets a strong breeze at 25 mph, so that’s a day to stay on the beach.

The bottom line: there’s no real gold in this 16-day window. The trade winds are just too strong and too cross-shore. The only real chance is Tuesday the 18th in the morning, where the cross-offshore wind gives us a clean window for a session. The long-period swell on the 16th is a beast, but it’s a closeout for the beach breaks here. It’s a tough run, but it happens here. Forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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