Le Moule Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a hard look at what’s coming our way for Le Moule over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this is a rough stretch. We’re looking at a solid week and a half of pretty poor surf conditions with virtually no clean windows worth paddling out for. The wind is just relentless out of the east and east-southeast, staying cross or cross-onshore almost the whole time, and it’s got a lot of chop and lumpiness mixed in. The swell direction is mostly from the east and east-northeast, which is consistent with the optimum swell direction, but the wind is just trashing it.

The first real glimmer of anything remotely surfable doesn’t show up until the morning of Saturday, August 15th, and even then it’s only a marginal call. Let’s break it down.

Overall Pattern:
The first 9 days are a write-off for decent surfing. The wave energy is moderate, with values climbing from 150 up to 289 (weak to moderate), but the wind is always cross or cross-on, and the water surface is described as lumpy, choppy, or with a cross-chop. The swell height stays between 3 ft and 5 ft, with short periods of 6 to 8 seconds, meaning weak, messy, close-out type waves. It’s just not happening.

*Le Moule* is a beach and reef setup, exposed to the northeast. The water temperature is sitting at 84°F, which is about 0.5°F warmer than average for this time of year – nothing unusual, just your typical warm Caribbean bathwater.

The Best on Offer (and it’s not great):
The only standout, and I use that term loosely, is the morning of Saturday, August 15th. The swell bumps up to 8 ft from the east, with a period of 9 seconds. The combined energy of all swells surges to 1040 (very strong energy). But here’s the catch – the wind is still a fresh cross-shore from the east at 22 mph, so it’s going to be lumpy and tough. The guidance says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” This is big, powerful, and messy. At 8 ft, this is expert-only territory. It’s raw, unruly, and honestly, for a beach and reef break, it’s more likely to look like a washing machine than a peeling wave. Could be a go for adrenaline junkies on a jet ski, but for a regular paddle surfer? I’d be very cautious.

The rest of that weekend (August 16th and 17th) stays similar – big 8 ft to 8 ft east swell with strong energy (around 800-1060), but the wind stays cross-on or cross, and the conditions are always lumpy or choppy. The crowd factor at Le Moule is “sometimes,” so you might have company, but with these conditions, I doubt many will be out.

The tail end of the forecast, around Wednesday, August 19th into the 20th, sees the swell drop back to 5 ft-4 ft and the energy dies down to 245-326. The wind is still cross from the east-southeast, so it’s still a bit choppy, but it’s cleaner than the previous week. If you’re desperate, you could find a weak, short-period wave, but it’s not going to be memorable.

The Bottom Line:
Honestly, for the first 9 days, leave the board at home. The wind is a killer. The only real pulse of size comes through around August 15th-17th, but it’s blown out. If you’re a kite surfer, the strong cross-shore wind and 8 ft east swell might be exactly what you’re after – this setup looks more interesting for kiteboarding than paddle surfing. For the rest of us, this is a waiting game. The surf might clean up a bit in the final days, but it’s low energy and short period. The forecasts can change, but as it stands, I’d go fishing instead.

Rusty.

Read more