Alize Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get real about the next couple of weeks. Honestly, it’s a bit of a rough stretch for us. The surf is going to be on offer, but the wind and conditions are going to make you work for every single wave. There’s a whole lot of cross-shore and cross-onshore chop on the menu, especially in the first week, so keep the expectations low and the wax fresh.

We’re looking at a run starting Saturday, August 8th. The waves are there, around 4ft, but the ENE wind at 16 mph is just messing it all up. Moderate cross-onshore and choppy is the name of the game. It’s not going to be a pretty sight. As we go into the weekend, the swell is actually building a bit, hitting 5ft to 6ft by Sunday, but the wind is staying fresh and lumpy. Not good. The combined energy is moderate, sitting at 270 and rising to 302 by Sunday, but it’s all for nothing when it’s this messy.

Monday and Tuesday are more of the same. Swell drops slightly to 4ft and 3ft, which is weak-to-moderate energy (146-191), but it’s still cross-shore and junky. By Wednesday, the swell starts to push up again, and by Thursday, August 13th, things start to get more serious, but not in a good way. The swell jumps to 7ft and 7ft with the energy climbing into the strong zone (439-553). But the wind is still fresh cross-onshore and lumpy. It’s just a mess.

Then we hit the real event. Friday, August 14th, brings in a lot of swell. We're talking 10ft in the morning, jumping to 12ft by the afternoon. The energy is huge – 1446 and then a massive 3019. This is a strong, powerful swell, but the wind is strong cross-onshore at 25-28 mph. It’s going to be chaotic, stormy, and completely unsurfable for anyone who wants a clean wave. The period is short, 8-10 seconds, so it’s just a wall of lumpy, bumpy energy. That setup is more interesting for the kite surfers than us paddle guys.

Saturday, August 15th, keeps the big swell, 10ft dropping to 8ft, but the energy is still strong (1325-905). Wind is still onshore and messy. Sunday, the 16th, is more of the same, with 8ft to 10ft swell and a constant onshore flow. It’s not until Tuesday, August 18th, that we finally get a bit of a reprieve in the wind. The swell drops to a more manageable 6ft, and we finally see a cross-offshore wind from the SE. But the model still rates the surf as marginal at best. It’s cleaner, but with a short 8 second period, it's not going to be a world-beater.

Wednesday the 19th offers a similar picture, 5ft and clean with that SE cross-off. But the energy has dropped to a moderate 266. It might be the best conditions of the whole run, but the waves just aren't there.

After that, things fade back into the junky cross-shore chop for the rest of the week, with small swells, 3ft to 4ft, and often that annoying cross-onshore wind. So, to sum it up, we have a lot of waves, but no quality. The water temp is 84°, which is about average for this time of year.

The standout, if you can call it that, is the window on Tuesday and Wednesday, August 18th and 19th, where at least the wind cleans up. But it's not a call to get excited about. It's just the least-bad option. The rest is a battle. We just have to wait for this pattern to break. It can’t stay this messy forever.

Stay safe out there.

Rusty

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