Alize Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this outlook is a tough one. The only break on the radar is Alize, and mate, the whole 16‑day window is a write‑off for decent surf. There’s not a single session that gets a green light. The wind is relentless out of the east, and the swell is contaminated by that same direction, leaving everything lumpy and chopped. It’s a long stretch of poor conditions, and honestly, it’s the kind of blank run that’s more normal for this area when the trade winds lock in. Let’s walk through the misery.

The pattern starts straight away on Thursday 9 July, with Alize seeing a 7 ft east swell at a short 8 seconds. The wind is a fresh 19 mph cross‑shore, and the surf is described as “poor surf conditions” – lumpy cross‑chop. The combined swell energy is moderate at 630. That’s a no‑go. Friday 10 July through to Sunday 12 July doesn’t improve: the swell sits around 6 to 7 ft, still east, still short period, and the wind is cross‑onshore, 16‑19 mph. The combined energy stays moderate (334‑623). Every session is “poor surf conditions.” Choppy and lumpy across the board.

Monday 13 July to Wednesday 15 July sees the swell drop a little – 5 to 6 ft – but the wind doesn’t let up. It’s cross or cross‑onshore, 16‑19 mph, with moderate to fresh breeze. The combined energy dips into the 200s and low 300s, which is weak to moderate. Still “poor surf conditions.” There’s a brief moment on Thursday 16 July morning where the wind is cross and the swell is 5 ft, but the energy is only 267 and the wave comment is still “poor surf conditions.” Not worth paddling out.

Friday 17 July to Sunday 19 July tease a bit: the swell bumps back to 6‑6 ft, but the period stays short (7‑8 seconds) and the wind is unrelenting east‑cross. Combined energy climbs to 380‑470, still moderate. But every record says “poor surf conditions.” The setup is ugly – cross‑shore chop and lumpy lines. Honestly, if you’re into kite surfing, this stretch of beach‑and‑reef with that strong cross‑shore wind might look interesting, but for paddle surfing it’s a hard pass.

The last days, from 20 July to 24 July, fade out. Swell drops to 3‑6 ft, still east, short period, and wind stays cross or cross‑onshore, 12‑19 mph. The combined energy slides from 228 down to 166, then back up to 378. Still “poor surf conditions.” There’s a risk of thunderstorms on Thursday 23 July morning, but it won’t save the surf.

So here’s the bottom line: Alize is a consistent break, but there’s no standout session in the whole 16 days. The wind is wrong, the swell direction is wrong (optimum is NE, but we’re getting E), and the period is too short. It’s a true blank run. If you’re desperate, keep an eye on the charts – it tends not to stay this poor for long, and forecasts can change. But for now, leave the boards at home.

Rusty.

Read more