Alize Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk straight—this stretch is a wasteland. I’ve been looking at Alize (Big Island) and there’s nothing worth getting wet for over the next 16 days. No clean swell, no good wind, just a whole lot of chop and lump that’ll have you cursing more than carving.

Starting this Friday afternoon, September 4th, we’ve got a weak 3ft swell from the east at 8 seconds. The east wind’s blowing 12 mph cross-shore, and the water’s 84°, which is about normal for this time of year. But the surface is junk—poor surf conditions, plain and simple. That holds all weekend: 3 to 4ft of weak, short-period mush with moderate cross-shore winds.

Monday and Tuesday, September 7th and 8th, the swell picks up a bit—4ft pushing to 6ft—but the period stays stuck at 7 seconds, and the energy climbs into the 200s and 300s (375, 430). Sounds okay, but it’s all wind-driven slop. Tuesday morning the east wind freshens to 22 mph and it gets properly lumpy. Not surfable.

Midweek, September 9th through 11th, we see the biggest swell of the whole run—7ft on Wednesday morning with energy at 694. But it’s still 8 seconds, from the east, with 16 to 19 mph cross-shore winds. That’s a lot of moving water with zero shape. This beach-and-reef setup is going to be a washing machine. Kite surfers might love it with all that wind and wave energy, but paddle surfers should stay home.

From the 12th to the 14th, the swell drops back to 3 to 4ft, but the wind goes cross-onshore and it gets choppy and miserable. Energy falls to the low 200s. Just blah. The 15th brings back 5ft at 7 seconds, still cross-shore chop.

Then on Wednesday, September 16th morning, there’s a tiny glimmer—the wind swings cross-offshore at 16 mph and the report says “clean.” But it’s still only 5ft at 6 seconds, weak and short-period, energy down at 232. If you’re desperate, that might be your only shot—and even then, it’s marginal. By the afternoon, it’s back to cross-shore junk.

The last days, September 17th to 19th, stay in that 4 to 6ft range with 8-second period and cross-shore winds, energy in the 200s to 300s. More of the same letdown.

Bottom line: zero good surf days in this entire 16-day window. Alize is usually consistent, but this run is a total blank. The east and ESE winds just don’t match this break’s preferred NE direction, and the short-period swell doesn’t have a chance. Save your energy, maybe wax up for nothing, because this dry spell looks locked in. Forecasts can shift, but I ain’t holding my breath.

Stay salty,
Rusty

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