Kahutara Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at what’s heading our way.

We’ve got a classic setup unfolding for Kahutara, a reef and point break that’s exposed to the south. The water is sitting at 52°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year – nothing unusual there. The coming days are a mixed bag, but there are a couple of windows that will have your toes tingling. The real standouts are Monday and Tuesday next week, with some serious groundswell hitting, but we’ve got to get through a few quieter days first.

The surf kicks off this Sunday afternoon, the 19th of July, but it’s a bit of a write-off. We’ve got a 5ft S swell, period a very long 15 seconds, cross-on wind, and the combined energy is strong at 1614. Honestly, it’s marginal; the wind is messy and the whole thing feels a bit off. Not one to chase.

Monday the 20th is where it starts to get interesting. Monday morning, we’ve got a 6ft S swell, still a long 15-second period, and the wind goes glassy with a light NW breeze. The combined energy jumps to a strong 2213. This is clean, high-quality surf for those who know what they’re doing. Then Monday afternoon gets even better – the swell bumps up to 7ft from the S, period stretching to 18 seconds, and it’s glassy with an ESE breeze. Energy is very strong at 2928. This is a solid session, but at 7ft, it’s pushing into expert territory, especially with that long period making it a bit tricky on the take-off. The point should handle it beautifully.

Tuesday the 21st still has some life. Morning sees a 5ft S swell with a 14-second period, light offshore NW wind, and clean conditions. Energy is moderate at 958. Afternoon drops to 4ft, but it’s glassy calm with an E wind. Both are good, clean options, but the standouts are definitely Monday.

After that, things go quiet. Wednesday the 22nd through Saturday the 25th is a real dry spell. Swell drops to 3ft or less, energy is weak, and the wind is generally cross or cross-off. Wednesday afternoon is particularly poor – 1ft with a cross-shore chop. Not worth the paddle.

There’s a little blip on Saturday the 25th afternoon with a 4ft S swell, but the period is a short 5 seconds, so it’s weak and won’t have any shape. The wind is offshore, so it’s clean, but it’s the worst kind of windswell.

Now, looking further ahead, things get a bit wild. Sunday the 26th has a 3ft ESE swell, period 15 seconds, but the wind is howling 19 mph from the west. The energy is moderate at 484, but that wind is going to be a real problem. It’s more of a kite day than a paddle day.

The big one arrives on the 27th of July. Monday morning, the swell jumps to 8ft from the S, period 12 seconds, with a strong offshore WNW wind at 22 mph. The combined energy is very strong at 2010. This is a serious, powerful groundswell. Monday afternoon gets even bigger, hitting 10ft, but the wind gets messy with a cross-off from the WSW at 25 mph. This is purely for experts only. The 28th of July keeps that 10ft S swell, but the wind is still cross-off and strong. It’s big, it’s powerful, and it’s not for the faint-hearted.

By the 29th, the swell drops back to a more manageable 5ft, with clean conditions and a light NNW wind. The 30th and 31st are small and weak, but the 1st of August brings a nice clean 5ft S swell with a 14-second period and light winds. A solid, fun option to finish the run.

The clear standout is Monday the 20th of July. The 6ft to 7ft S groundswell, glassy conditions, and strong energy make it the pick of the period. The 27th and 28th are massive, but only for the most experienced. As for the rest, it’s a waiting game between the pulses.

Rusty.

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