Jaguay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a mixed bag coming up for Jaguay, so let’s keep it real.

The first week or so, honestly, is a bit of a grind. The swell is small and the conditions aren't cooperating. Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th are a write-off—tiny waves and poor surf quality. Things are a little better from Sunday the 19th into Monday the 20th with the swell picking up to around 3ft to 4ft from the SW, but it's still marginal, with light onshore wind messing with the surface. The combined energy is moderate (332 to 344), but it's not the kind of day you’d be rushing for.

Now, Tuesday the 21st morning is the first real glimmer of hope. The wind goes glassy, and we’ve got 3ft of SW swell at 12 seconds. The energy is moderate (269), but that glassy surface is the key. It’ll be clean, and for a beginner-plus spot like Jaguay, that’s a gold star. The water temperature is a whopping 68°, which is 6° warmer than normal—very unusual for this time of year, so you won’t need a thick wetsuit.

After that, the surf drops back into the marginal zone through the 22nd and into the 23rd. The 23rd morning actually has a very long period swell of 24 seconds, but it’s only 1ft, so it’s more of a tease than a ride. The energy is moderate (305), but that tiny size with an ultra-long period means it’s likely breaking straight and crumbly here.

There’s a long gap of average to poor conditions from the 23rd through the 26th. The swell stays small (1ft to 2ft) and the wind is mostly cross-onshore. Not worth a paddle.

But then—hold on. Monday the 27th morning is a standout. The wind is glassy again, and we’ve got 2ft of SW swell at a very long 18 seconds. The combined energy is strong (426). That’s the kind of groundswell that will wrap in nicely and offer clean, lined-up waves. Perfect for a beginner-plus break. The very long period means it’ll have longer lulls between sets, but the shape should be excellent.

Looking further out, Tuesday the 28th through Thursday the 30th sees the swell building to 3ft to 4ft from the SW, with periods settling into a solid 14 to 15 seconds. The energy is strong to very strong (431 to 581). The wind is light but cross-onshore, so it won’t be as clean as the 27th, but there’s plenty of push. The 28th afternoon and 29th morning are the best of this run, with swell size peaking at 4ft. That’s still manageable for intermediate surfers, but it’s getting a bit more powerful.

The final few days into the 31st and 1st of August taper off. The swell drops, and the wind picks up. Nothing special.

So, the top pick is Monday the 27th morning—glassy, clean, and a nice long-period SW groundswell. The very long period (18 seconds) will give you good shape and easy paddling between sets. The water is unusually warm, which is a bonus. For a second choice, the 29th morning has the most size and energy, just be prepared for that cross-onshore breeze.

Rusty.

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