Jaguay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s comin’ our way.

Well, honestly, don’t get your hopes up too high for the next week or so. The first bit of this forecast is a right-off. From Thursday, the 20th of August, right through to Wednesday the 26th, we’re looking at a flat spell with no real swell to speak of. The few bumps that show up are tiny, around 0.7ft to 2ft, with all that energy coming from the west-southwest. The winds are light and mostly cross-onshore or onshore, so it’s messy and weak. The combined energy is in the dumps, mostly under 100 and barely cracking three digits. It’s a total non-starter for paddle surfing. You’d be better off cleaning your board than trying to get a wave out there.

Now, things start to get a little more interesting toward the end of the month. The first real glimmer of hope pops up on Thursday afternoon, the 27th of August. The swell is still only 1ft, but the period jumps to a very long 20 seconds, and the combined energy goes up to 274 — that’s moderate. The wind is light cross-onshore, so it’s not perfect, but that long period gives it some shape. It’s a marginal call, but it’s the first sign of life.

The standout of the whole forecast, and I mean the one to circle on your calendar, is Friday the 28th of August. The morning shows a solid 5ft swell from the west-southwest, with a 16-second period. That’s proper groundswell energy. The combined energy jumps to a massive 1094 — that’s strong wave energy. The wind is a gentle cross-onshore, so it’s a little bumpy, but it’s surfable. By the afternoon, it gets even better: the swell pushes to 5ft, period stays at 16 seconds, energy hits 1214, and the wind switches to a light onshore. That’s borderline too big for groms, but for the rest of us, it’s a goer. The break is Jaguay, and it’s a long-period groundswell hitting a beach setup, so it might be a bit straighter, but when the energy is that high, it’s gonna have some punch. The water is a balmy 68°F, which is a huge 6°F warmer than normal — that’s very unusual for this time of year, so you’ll be in for a warm session.

Saturday the 29th of August holds onto the swell, with 5ft in the morning and 5ft in the afternoon, both from the west-southwest and a 14-second period. The energy is still strong, in the 700s to 800s. Winds are light and onshore, so it’s still clean enough. It’s a solid follow-up, but that Friday afternoon is the gem.

After that, it fades again. Sunday the 30th drops to 4ft, and by Monday the 31st it’s back to 3ft or less. The wind stays light, but the energy drops, and the scores go flat. The first week of September looks quiet again, with tiny swell and poor conditions. The long-range stuff around the 3rd and 4th of September shows a bit of a bump with 3ft to 3ft swell and 18-second periods, but the energy is only moderate, and the wind is onshore or cross-onshore. It’s promising but not a sure thing that far out.

So, the short story: don’t bother paddling out until the 27th. The real standout is Friday the 28th of August, and maybe a bit of Saturday the 29th. That’s your window. Get out there and enjoy the warm water.

Rusty.

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