Ikei Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, switching to feet and miles per hour. Let’s talk about Ikei Island.

Right out of the gate, the outlook looks thin. The water temp is about normal for the season. The first few days are a write-off with small, short-period east swell and onshore or cross-onshore winds.

Starting Tuesday the 15th, you’ve got a weak 3ft east swell at 9-10 seconds. The wind is 6 mph from the east-northeast, and it’s onshore or cross-onshore. There’s even a risk of thunderstorms. Energy is weak to moderate. Not a good start. Wednesday the 16th through Friday the 18th are the same story: tiny 2ft to 3ft waves, short period, and poor wind. The energy drops right down.

Saturday the 19th brings a big change, but not a good one. A long-period east groundswell hits, pushing waves to 5ft in the morning and 8ft by the afternoon. The period is a solid 15-16 seconds, and the energy skyrockets to over 1200 in the morning and nearly 4000 by the afternoon. The wind, though, is a messy cross-onshore from the north-northeast at 16-19 mph. The ocean is choppy and lumpy. For a reef, that long period could be sweet, but not with that wind.

Sunday the 20th is the biggest day of the outlook. We’re looking at a solid 12ft east swell with a 16-second period. The energy is massive, hitting over 6000. The wind is a cross-shore from the north at 22-25 mph, creating a messy, lumpy cross-chop. At this size, you need to be an expert, and with the conditions, it’s a kite surfer’s playground, not a paddle surfer’s.

Monday the 21st the swell drops a bit to 7ft to 8ft from the east-northeast, with a 14-second period. A near gale to gale-force wind from the NNW and NW is tearing it up. A strong cross-shore in the morning, but by the afternoon we get a clean, cross-off wind. The problem? The wind is 40 mph. The surface is clean, but you won’t be able to paddle into a thing.

Tuesday the 22nd the swell shifts to the north, dropping to 5ft to 7ft. The wind goes offshore from the west, but it’s still a near gale to strong breeze (28-37 mph). The water is clean, but it’s a battle to get out.

Your best shot in this whole 16-day run is likely Wednesday the 23rd. The swell comes down to a more manageable 5ft to 5ft from the north at 10 seconds. The wind is a moderate cross-off from the west-northwest to northwest at 16 mph. The conditions are finally listed as “clean,” with moderate energy. It’s the most user-friendly day we’ve got.

From Thursday the 24th onwards, it’s back to small, weak, and choppy. Swells drop under 3ft, periods shorten, and the wind goes back to being cross-onshore or onshore. The end of the outlook from the 27th sees another big pulse of east-southeast swell, but the wind cranks up to gale force, completely ruining any chance of a wave. By the 30th of September, there’s a severe gale cross-shore with 12ft waves – that’s a hard no.

Bottom line: there’s no standout day to circle on the calendar. The wind just won’t get out of the way of the swell. The 23rd is your best hope, but it’s a long way from perfect.

— Rusty

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